
Forward Guidance
Tue, 21 Mar 2023 21:38:21 -0000Something Systemic Has Happened | Daniel Neilson
Does the ongoing turmoil in the banking world constitute a Minksy moment? Daniel Neilson, assistant professor of monetary economic at Bard College at Simons Rock and author of Minsky (2019), argues yes. Neilson explores the potential of contagion within the banking world, and he makes the case that the Federal Reserves Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) as well as the FDIC backstop might make this banking crisis short-lived. Neilson shares with Jack Farley several in-depth charts on the Feds balance sheet that might indicate a turning point and the pair share their views on the Federal Reserves meeting on March 22, 2023. Filmed the afternoon of March 21, 2023.
Daniel Neilsons article on Silicon Valley Bank: https://www.soonparted.co/p/silicon-valley-bank
Daniel Neilsons article on Feds BTFP and other refinancing channels: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-ii
Daniel Neilsons chart pack on the SVB Panic: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-iii
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(05:08) "This Is A Minksy Moment"
(18:04) The Takeover of Credit Suisse
(28:30) Permissionless
(29:33) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) vs. The Fed's Discount Window
(39:32) Can The Banking Panic Be Stopped In Its Tracks?
(43:33) Blockworks Research
(44:37)First Republic Bank ($FRC) and Bank Profitability
(49:32) The Fed Readies Its Dollar Swap Lines
(55:43) The Federal Reserve's New Hiking Path
Mon, 20 Mar 2023 21:55:00 -0000Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game
Marc Cohodes, accomplished short-seller and financial bloodhound, is on the ultimate hot-streak. Over the past six months, he has been the sternest critic of FTX, Silvergate, and Signature Bank, all of which either have ceased operations as a corporate entity or will do so shortly. He shares what led him to call out FTX in the summer of 2022 (months before its bankruptcy in the fall) and why he shorted the stocks of Silvergate ($SI) and Signature Bank ($SBNY), which have both collapsed in value (a share of Silvergate trades at less than two dollars and shares of Signature Bank no longer trade after it was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on March 12).
Cohodes also explains the immense difficulties that short-sellers frequently face, and he shares his opinion on turmoil swirling around the U.S. regional banking system. Over the course of this interview, Cohodes makes several allegations which are solely his own opinion. Filmed the afternoon of March 20, 2023.
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Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
____
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
____
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(14:59) Silvergate and Signature Bank as "Publicly-Traded Crime Scenes"
(23:47) Silicon Valley Bank
(31:30) Is This Similar to 2008? (Answer: Not Really)
(58:43) What Marc Is Working On Now
(01:04:18) Blockworks Research
(01:05:18) The Dangerous Life Of A Professional Short-Seller
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 19 Mar 2023 19:05:00 -0000The Banks Didnt Hedge Enough | Mustafa Chowdhury
For 40% off an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime (220 / year instead of 374 / year), go to https://macrohive.com/jack or use discount code JACK at checkout.
Macro Hive sample report on Silicon Valley Bank (co-written by Mustafa Chowdhury): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/silicon-valley-bank-how-the-government-plans-to-contain-the-fallout/
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Just how bad was the risk management at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) when it came to the threat of rising rates? And now that rates have exploded higher over the past year, is this interest rate risk limited to only a few banks, or are these risks spread throughout the entire U.S. banking system?
Jackstoday is uniquely qualified to answer these questions. Mustafa Chowdhury, chief rates strategist at Macro Hive, practically invented the field of interest rate risk management, and two decades ago he was successfully managing interest rate risk on Freddie Macs giant portfolio of mortgages worth hundreds of billions of dollars (several times that of Silicon Valley Bank). Chowdhury argues that, contrary to claims otherwise, the U.S. banking system was not sufficiently hedged for 2022's interest rate shock.
Filmed on March 16, 2023.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:33) Mustafa Chowdhury's Background
(4:39) "That's The Mortgage Game"
(11:27) Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: Interest Rate Risk Lurking At The Scene Of The Crime
(21:14) How To Properly Hedge Interest Rate Risk Properly
(27:37) Chowdhury Pioneered Use Of Swaptions In 1990s
(29:36) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB): Who To Blame?
(33:20) Accounting Treatment (Available For Sale Vs. Held-To-Maturity)
(41:47) The Fed's Convexity Quantitative Easing (QE) Continues
(50:35) Bank Profitability With Higher Deposit Costs
(01:03:50) Interest Rate Risk Is Spread Throughout The U.S. Banking System
(01:11:52) "There Will Be Fewer Bank Runs" Because Of FDIC Relief
(01:19:29) Will Fed Cut In 2023?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 17 Mar 2023 13:25:00 -0000This is NOT 2008 | Harris Kupperman
Harris Kuppy Kupperman, chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he doesnt think the ongoing turmoil in the regional banking system will have much effect outside on the economy or markets. He explains why he thinks the banking businesses do not make great investments. When Jack Farley asks what he does like, Kuppys answer is simple: oil. He explains why he remains exceptionally bullish on black gold and also shares a stock which he has invested in: Journey Energy. Lastly, Kuppy shares his dos and donts of investing. Filmed the afternoon of March 16, 2023.
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
____
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:58) The Run on Silicon Valley Bank
(03:49) Will Measures By Fed Treasury & FDIC Be Enough To Prevent Future Panics?
(05:55) Kuppy on Bank Stocks
(10:26) Are Rising Rates Good Or Bad For Banks?
(15:05) Blockworks Research
(16:04) Kuppy Is Very Bullish On Oil
(25:34) Natural Gas
(29:10) Journey Energy
(31:41) How To Value Oil Companies
(36:14) Hedging At Oil Companies
(37:33) Permissionless
(38:36) Kuppy's Shorter-Term Market Views
(44:19) Kuppy's "Dont's" of Investing
(49:55) KEDM
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Mar 2023 10:06:00 -0000Governor Kuroda: The Decades Most Consequential Central Banker
This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 15 Mar 2023 20:50:00 -0000Lyn Alden: Bank Runs And The Financial Repression End Game | Lyn Alden
For some time now it has been the belief of many Fed-watchers that the Federal Reserve would continue to hike interest rates until itbreaks something. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to argue that the stunning collapse of two large U.S. banks represents such breakage. Alden tells Jack Farley that this damage will soon give way to a period of low real interest rates, where inflation runs above Treasury yields.
Filmed the afternoon of March 15, 2023.
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Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance
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Aldens writings can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:43) The Cause Of The Turmoil In Banking System
(07:08) Are Rising Interest Rates Actually Good For Banks?
(08:50) Alden's Outlook on Banks As A Business
(12:47) Has Something "Broken"?
(15:38) Interest Rate Risk In The U.S. Banking System
(22:43) Public Ad
(23:48) Will Banks Become More Cautious About Making Loans?
(31:11) Is The Fed's Campaign To Raise Interest Rates Over?
(38:37) Debt, Demographics, and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory)
(53:28) Recession Risk
(58:48) Stock Market During Financial Repression
(01:01:29) Fractional Reserve Banking and "The Narrow Bank"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 14 Mar 2023 22:40:00 -0000Michael Kao: Bank Bailout Allows The Fed To Tighten Even More
Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the turmoil in the banking sector, the consequences of the policy response from Washington, and the fate of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency. Kao argues that the Feds recent assistance to U.S. banks allows the Fed to hike more in order to fight inflation.
Kao also shares his view on todays consumer price index (CPI) reading, China, and the global oil market. Recorded at 1pm ET on March 14, 2023.
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
____
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:36) The Banking Panic Could Be Over, Says Michael Kao
(09:14) It's The Shadow Banking Sector That's In Trouble
(14:11) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy?
(17:46) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy?
(20:59) Blockworks Research
(21:57) Do We Have Structural Inflation?
(25:03) Black Swan: Oil To $300
(37:33) China's Oil Demand Is Lower Than Expected
(41:13) The U.S. Dollar Wrecking Ball
(46:24) Permissionless Ad
(47:26) China's Hidden Debt
(55:36) How Stable Is The U.S. Dollar As The Global Reserve Currency?
(01:08:36) Closing Thoughts On Bank Panic & Federal Reserve
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 23:30:00 -0000The Bank Bailout Will Create Moral Hazard | Joseph Wang & Stephen Miran
On Sunday, March 12, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced emergency measures to support U.S. regional banks experiencing bank runs. Were these actions a bailout and have they already created unintended consequences? To Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the New York Federal Reserve, the answer to both of these questions is an unambiguous yes.
Joseph joins Stephen Miran, co-founder & portfolio manager at Amberwave Partners, alongside Jack Farley for an in-depth conversation on the banking intervention and its effect on moral hazard and monetary plumbing. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 4pm ET.
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Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance
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Joseph Wangs latest piece, Hidden To Market,on FedGuy.com:
https://fedguy.com/hidden-to-market/
The joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the FDIC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm
Federal Reserves Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:47 The Bank "Bailout"
09:10 The Shocking Incompetence of Silicon Valley Bank
20:02 Will There Be More Bank Failures?
22:40 Public Ad
23:44 Moral Hazard in U.S. Banking Bailouts
27:55 Why Hasn't Silicon Valley Bank Been Bought?
31:35 Emergency Relief From Fed, Treasury, and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)
41:41 Consequences of Fed's BTFP Program on Big For Duration
52:25 Does Huge Fall In Interest Rates Mean Fed's Hiking Is Over?
01:01:13 February Inflation Data
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 21:48:00 -0000The Bank Crisis Is "Overblown" | Joseph Wang
Signature and Silicon Valley Bank have collapsed. In this breaking news episode, hosts Jason Yanowitz and Jack Farley interview Joseph Wang to discuss the banking system failures and what to expect next. Joseph dives deep into the risk both banks took by not hedging interest rate risk, how this could have been avoided and whether other banks are in a similar position? Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 10:30am ET.
NOTE: This was originally filmed as an episode of "Empire," the crypto podcast hosted by Santiago Santos and Jason Yanowitz, the co-founder of Blockworks. Listen to this episode on the Empire feed: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/signature-banks-demise-whos-next-joseph-wang/id1554930038?i=1000603971972
We then discuss if the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program was the right move? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 20:10:00 -0000 Danielle DiMartino Booth: A Banking Panic Makes The Feds Job More Difficult
To get a 20% discount off an annual subscription to Danielle DiMartino Booth https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/guidance and use code GUIDANCE
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to share her thoughts on how the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector will affect the economy and the Federal Reserves fight with inflation. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 1pm ET.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:30:00 -0000Crazy Things Are Happening In The Japanese Bond Market | Weston Nakamura
Check out Weston Nakamuras new show, Market Depth (First episode airs on Wednesday March 15):
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3YMXoHm
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Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unchanged, and maintaining a highly dovish stance as he exits. Governor Kuroda held his final press conference in which his only regret was that he was unable to achieve a sustained 2% inflation rate in Japan- despite a backdrop of Japans core CPI currently double that of the 2% objective, and many market participants and pundits calling for a final signature BOJ-shock for this meeting.
Jack Farley welcomes back Weston Nakamura again for a third consecutive BOJ policy meeting review to discuss the deteriorating state of market dysfunction and the warped yield curve amidst the Bank of Japans unprecedented scale of continued easing. They also review Governor Kurodas history-shaping unprecedented tenure, as well as the incoming new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, and the behind-the-scenes scramble to find who Weston feels is a disaster of a pick for the post-Kurodanomics era, using references from the hit-series Breaking Bad for character context.
Today also marks the beginning of another era, in which Tokyo-based derivatives trader and financial markets content creator Weston Nakamura officially joins Blockworks Macro to host a brand new podcast called Market Depth - in which Weston provides critical cross-asset market commentary and insights from Asia- where market activity and policy developments are having ever greater impact upon the global economy and market landscape. Market Depth debuts on Wednesday March 15th 2023, so be sure to follow the podcast on your favorite app, and subscribe to Blockworks Macro YouTube so that you dont miss an episode!
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(10:05) Kuroda (Departing BOJ Governor) As Gus Fring
(13:19) Kazuo Ueda (Incoming BOJ Governor)
(18:09) Frankenstein Policy
(23:26) Japanese Inflation
(27:45) Bank Stocks Fall In Japan
(29:54) The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank
(36:37) Liquidity
(43:04) Consequences For Japanese Yen
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 10 Mar 2023 20:31:00 -0000Chris Whalen: The Fed Is To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
Today, Silicon Valley Bank, an institution with over $200 Billion worth of assets, failed. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why.
Whalen attributes the collapse in book value of SVB Financial (the entity that owns Silicon Valley Bank) to the Feds rapid hikes in interest rates, which severely depressed the market value of the banks holdings. Whalen argues that, unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates and opens the discount window, the U.S. is at risk of a banking crisis.
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Mar 2023 14:05:00 -0000Does Powell Mean Business? | David Hay
Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil.
Hay describes how Volckers drastic actions turned him into a bond bull (Volcker meant business) for his entire career, but he shares why now he is not optimistic about bonds despite falling inflation and Fed Chair Powells spirited rate hikes. Farley asks Hay if Powell means business, and Hay shares his insights on corporate bonds, nuclear energy, and common investor mistakes. Hay also argues that unprofitable growth stocks could have another leg down as bond yields continue to rise.
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Haymaker Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
__
Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
__
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:38 Is The Bond Bull Market Over?
09:32 A Fiscal Funding Crisis?
11:09 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
14:32 Are Rate Hikes Effective At Fighting Inflation?
17:44 Hay's Bearish View On Bonds
21:07Oil, Gas, Uranium, and Copper
30:04 Permissionless
31:05 Investing in Corporate Bonds
34:17 Individual Stock Ideas
37:26 New Lows In Stock Market?
40:33 Outlook on Energy Stocks: "Easy Money Has Already Been Made"
49:15 About Evergreen Gavekal and The Haymaker Substack
51:44 Learning From The Volcker Era: What Was 1980 & 1981 Like?
55:33 Does Powell Mean Business?
58:10 Blockworks Research Plug
59:07 Dos & Don'ts of Investing
01:06:09 The Most Crowded Trade Right Now
01:09:05 Another Down Leg In High-Valuation Stocks?
Mon, 06 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000The Case For Bonds | Alfonso Peccatiello
Alfonso (Alf) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, higher for longer, the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds.
Filmed on March 2, 2023.
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023
(08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer"
(15:06) The Housing Market
(28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf
(33:16) Permissionless plug
(34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession?
(38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks
(45:04)Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question)
(48:35) Inflation
(52:29) Research Plug
(53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?"
(56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing?
(59:56) The Macro Compass
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 04 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000Breaking Down Warren Buffett's 2023 Shareholder Letter | Yun Li
Follow On The Margin:
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079
Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM
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This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance.
As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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--
Referenced In The Show:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf
--
Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 03 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000Navigating A "Structural Shift" In Markets | Joseph Wang & Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealthjoins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point.
With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the perfect catalyst for a sustained bull market, or not? We also discuss Joseph & Martin's thought on the labor market, the outlook for global central banks and the path ahead for 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:48) Managing Money During 2022
(04:43) Markets Are Signalling A New "Turning Point"
(10:19) 2008 Signalled A "Structural Shift" In Canadian Asset Management
(15:41) The Bank of Canada... Follows The Fed
(17:55) Energy Is The Most Hated Trade Out There
(24:11) Natural Gas & Energy Producers
(30:24) Permissionless Plug
(31:26) Housing & Interest Rates In Canada
(37:50) Are We Heading For A Recession?
(40:06) 2020 Marked A "Structural Shift"
(44:30) The Labor Market Remains Strong
(52:46) The Anguish of Central Banking
(57:42) The Role of Structured Notes In A Portfolio
(01:07:30) The Path Ahead For 2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000Mike Green: Recession Approaches As Housing & Car Markets Weaken
Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last years spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estate and auto lending that is only beginning to draw attention.
Green concludes that the U.S. economy is headed towards a recession, and he then proceeds to explain zero day-to-expiry (0DTE) options and weigh hedging strategies in the volatility space. Filmed on February 28th, 2023.
Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance
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Mike Greens Substack: https://michaelwgreen.substack.com/
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:45) Is The Labor Market Truly Strong?
(05:46) Where We Are In The Economic Cycle
(08:40) Commercial Real Estate & Auto Market
(10:59) Interest Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Economy
(14:20) We Are Approaching A Recession
(20:52) Explaining The Recent Rally
(24:58)Is Liquidity Rising?
(29:08) Public Ad
(30:12) The True Cause Of Inflation
(33:19) Debt Is Just A Tool
(36:02) Outlook on Stocks And Bonds
(38:25) What A Bear Market Dominated By Passive Flows Looks Like
(42:47) Zero Day To Expiry Options (0DTE)
(58:49) Conclusions about 0DTE Options
(01:06:03) Simplify Asset Management
(01:09:16) Advanced Discussion on Options & Hedging
(01:13:29) Disclaimer on Options
(01:14:24) Cash Is A Cheap Option
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 27 Feb 2023 12:45:00 -0000Restrictions On Investments Into China Are Imminent | Harald Malmgren & Nicholas Glinsman
Right now, U.S. officials in Washington D.C. are preparing legislation that will cut off foreign investment into China.
Thats according to Jacks two guests today, Harald Malmgren & Nick Glinsman. According to them, the Biden administration is preparing an executive order that will fundamentally alter Americas financial relationship with China.
Harald Malmgren is an economist, ambassador, and former adviser to four U.S. presidents, and Nicholas Glinsman is an investor who has worked at macro hedge funds such as Brevan Howard. Their new venture Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, is a research partner of Forward Guidance.
Email jack@blockworks.co for discounted access to Malmgren Glinsman Partners (Daily newsletter $900 per year, weekly institutional product available via request).
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--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:53) The Fraying Of U.S China Relations
(09:05) "China's Growth Model Is Dying"
(18:33) Restriction of Foreign Investment In China - What Would It Look Like?
(26:18) Are We In A New Economic Cold War?
(35:31) Putin & Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine
(41:31) "The Sternness of NATIO is New"
(45:12) A Potential Peace Deal Negotiated By China?
(51:49) "The Market Is Not Ready For This"
(54:52) Malmgren-Glinsman Partners
(59:12) Liquidity is NOT Rising, Says Malmgren
(01:07:00) Is Credit Contracting?
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 23 Feb 2023 12:25:00 -0000Doomberg & Steve Keen: The Green New Deal and Energy Security
How should the world decarbonize its economy and maximize human flourishing? Steve Keen, post-Keynesian economist and Green New Deal proponent, explores this question with Doomberg, energy advocate and green chicken, in a no holds barred discourse on the future of energy and climate.
--
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Doomberg on Substack https://doomberg.substack.com/about
Steve Keen Patreon https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen
--
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:52) What Is Wrong With Current Energy Policy?
(12:44) The Green New Deal
(16:10) ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance)
(22:20) "Garbage" Analysis of Climate Change by Neoclassical Economics
(29:10) Permissionless Plug
(30:12) Nuclear, Solar, and Wind
(42:30) Government Action vs. Private Sector
(51:07) Doom on Europe's Energy Situation
(59:19) "I Would Be Nationalizing All Fossil Fuel Companies"
(01:02:35) Research plug
(01:03:33) Closing Thoughts
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 20 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan
The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a soft landing scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesnt enter a recession. The odds of a soft landing appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last?
Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates.
Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192
--
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:39) What Is The Soft Landing?
(04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low
(12:45) January Inflation Data
(19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates?
(24:50) Outlook for Stocks
(29:02) Permissionless Plug
(30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound
(36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade
(41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening?
(45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys
(51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates
(01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000Learning From Financial Crises | Joseph Wang & Steven Kelly
What is a true financial crisis, how does it differ from the mere popping of a speculative bubble or a vanilla recession, and what are the current risks of a financial crisis right now?
Steven Kelly, an expert on financial crises and Senior Research Associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) to discuss these questions. Wang, a former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve, shares his insight on why, despite the Feds quantitative tightening (QT) and rapid rate hikes, liquidity remains high. Kelly and Wang agree that the risk of a true financial crisis such as the one in 2008 is unlikely to occur, because as Kelly argues, banks have much more capital to endure losses.
Filmed on February 13, 2023.
--
Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/forwardguidance
*26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees.
**As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).
--
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Steven Kelly on bank regulation: https://rb.gy/isdjlm
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:38) What Is A Financial Crisis?
(05:14) "It's Really Hard To Find Capital In A Crisis"
(08:16) Bank Capital Ratios
(16:35) What Is The Risk Of A Financial Crisis Right Now?
(22:06) The Federal Reserve As The Dealer Of Last Resort
(27:20) Public Ad
(28:28) Joseph Wang On The Fed During March 2020
(34:25) Do Rate Hikes and Quantitative Tightening (QT) Increase Risk of Financial Crisis?
(36:51) Why Is Liquidity Rising?
(42:51) What Is The "Problematic" Collateral Now?
(46:36) "Everything Looks Fine"
(50:49) Unrealized Losses on Bank Balance Sheets Due To Rate Hikes
(54:05) Inverted Yield Curve
(54:56) The Debt Ceiling
(01:00:41) Is There A Limit To How High The Fed Can Hike?
(01:03:36) Potential Risks In The Shadow Banking System
(01:13:19) Inflation As A Financial Risk Itself
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Back
Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the worlds leading expert on global liquidity, a key concept in finance that relates to the relative ease of financing in markets around the world.
After previously calling in 2022 that a collapse in liquidity would usher in a bad year for risk assets, Howell returns to Forward Guidance with happier tidings. Howell now argues that global liquidity conditions reached a nadir in October 2022 and since then have been rising, in part due to the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) injecting trillions of Yuan into the Chinese financial system, as well as money market funds pulling cash from the Feds reverse repo (RRP) facility.
Howell also shares with Forward Guidance listeners his thoughts on why the yield curve is sending a false signal, as well as on private credit creation and cross-border flows.
--
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--
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:40) Liquidity Is Rising - Why?
(06:17) But What About Quantitative Tightening (QT)?
(09:03) Treasury Market Liquidity & Bank Reserves
(18:10) People's Bank of China Is Injecting Lots of Liquidity
(25:48) Y2K Fed Comparison
(30:50) Market Outlook for 2023
(32:58) Curve Ad
(35:12) Liquidity Outlook For Next Few Years
(41:38) Inverted Yield Curve Could Be Sending False Signal
(50:40) Are Rate Cuts Actually Coming?
(59:40) Private Sector Liquidity & Cross-Border Flows
(1:06:50) Consequences On Global Economy
(1:13:01) Is Liquidity Resurgence Already Priced In?
(1:17:48) "Rebound" Phase In Liquidity Cycle
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Feb 2023 16:02:00 -0000Bear Market Not Over, Says Veteran Trader Who Made 163% Return in 2022 | Neal Berger
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagles View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market.
After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks around the world tightened liquidity, in response to the record high inflation rates that shocked markets all around the world. In this interview, Neal walks through the market dynamics that allowed him to spot this trend reversal of the previous 10+ years. As central banks began tightening & reducing liquidity, Neal launched the contrarian macro fund in April 2021 and saw an opportunity that many overlooked. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
--
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
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Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(16:14) The Fed in 2022
(21:52) "The Sell-Off Was Orderly"
(24:02) Blockworks Research
(25:36) The Summer Rally of July & August 2022
(27:24) Thoughts On Current Rally
(32:02) Rates & Stock Relationship
(36:11) Permissionless Plug
(37:14) The Labor Market Is Strong
(40:31) Are Stocks Pricing In A Soft Landing?
(44:23) Defining Liquidity
(46:42) Which Is Neal Berger More Bearish On - Stocks Or Bonds?
(48:43) Is This A Suckers' Rally?
(50:53) IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME
(51:46) Yield Curve View
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 06 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000The Bond Market Is Wrong | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/
Joseph Wangs latest piece, Come Hell Or High Water: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/
--
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--
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
--
To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308. Offer ends February 20, 2023.
--
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief
(04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong
(07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%"
(01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go
(15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case
(28:06) Curve Ad
(29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling?
(36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening?
(46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime
(57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water"
(01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate
(01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%?
(01:14:45) Higher For Longer!
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 Feb 2023 21:58:00 -0000Central Bankers vs. The Bond Market | Roger Hirst
Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced to pivot and cut rates. Hirst also shares his view on China, silver, and the labor market.
Lykeion Research https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
For more information about Real Vision Creative Studios, email customvideos@realvision.com
This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today.
___
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
___
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(04:31) Disconnect Between Central Banks And Markets
(11:29) The Labor Market Is Tight But Not Strong"
(14:36) Fighting Against The "Doomsday Scenario"
(20:57) Base Case For 2023
(24:09) Is Refinancing Risk Delayed?
(29:40) Soft Landing Won't Happen But Plane Will Be Circling The Airport For Long Time
(33:43) Public Ad
(35:49) Controlled Explosions In China"
(41:52) The Merging of Geopolitics and Macro
(46:48) The Debt Supercycle
(49:53) Actionable Trade Ideas: Copper, Silver, and Calls
(56:23) Bonds and Oil
(01:04:51) Private Equity
(01:09:26) Recession Type and Length
(01:15:59) The Power Of Changing Your Mind
Wed, 01 Feb 2023 22:39:00 -0000Jim Bianco on Fed Chair Powell's Reluctance To Discipline The Bulls (February 2023 FOMC)
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February.
Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 31 Jan 2023 20:08:22 -0000What This Fed Watcher Is On The Lookout For | Colby Smith (February 2023 FOMC)
With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Feds policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal Reserves own forecasts will be one of the most salient issues at tomorrows press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Smith and Farley also discuss the latest economic data, the politics of the Fed, and the looming issue of the U.S. debt ceiling.
Follow Colby Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/colbyLsmith
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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
__
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Timestamps:
(00:41) Expectations For The Fed's February FOMC Meeting
(09:24) Are Financial Conditions Too Loose?
(18:26) "The Fed's Threshold For Pain Is A Lot Higher"
(25:48) Forward Guidance
(30:55) Curve Ad
(32:00) Employment Costs & Other Economic Data
(37:09) Will The Fed Hike Again In May (After It Likely Hikes Again in March)?
(40:12) New Voting Members on The FOMC
(43:26) Will Powell Be In "Attack Mode" Tomorrow?
(47:49) The Fed's Balance Sheet & Quantitative Tightening (QT)
(51:14) The Debt Ceiling
(53:34) The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility
Tue, 31 Jan 2023 14:48:58 -0000Earnings Season Is Strong (So Far) | Sam Burns
Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023.
Follow Mill Street Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MillStResearch
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
__
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:35) Outlook for 2023
(06:00) Cyclical Stocks Are Outperforming Defensive Stocks
(11:37) Stocks vs. Bonds Valuations
(17:17) Earnings Growth Outlook for S&P 500 Stocks
(20:46) Incentives of Sell-Side Analysts
(28:35) Earnings Revisions By Sector
(31:30) Permissionless Plug
(32:33)China, Gold Miners, and Airlines
(37:06) European Stocks
(43:35) What Is Sam Most Bearish On?
(45:53) The Fed
(55:40) Inverted Yield Curve
Thu, 26 Jan 2023 14:52:44 -0000The Bear Market Ended Months Ago, Says Master of Turning Points | Milton Berg
Milton Berg is a quiet legend of technical analysis whose work is regularly used by the worlds most accomplished investors. He joins Jack Farley to share his reading of specific patterns in the market that to him are strong bullish indicators. Berg argues that the recession already occurred in 2022 and that the best time to buy stocks is coming out a recession. Berg shares with Farley in-depth analysis of the breadth and volume characteristics of recent price action that make him think that the bear market is over. Berg is particularly constructive on China and gold miners, and in addition he and Farley debate the meaning of the steep yield curve inversion.
Milton Berg Advisors is a boutique consulting and research firm that offers investment advisory services exclusively to institutional investors. More info can be found at https://miltonberg.com/.
Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:34) Milton Berg's Way Of Analyzing Markets
(09:31) A Transition From Inflation To Recession Is Bullish For Stocks
(12:13) Comparison To Dot-Com Crash
(17:24) "The Market Bottomed In June"
(21:12) Bullish On Chinese & U.S. Stocks
(29:37) Permissionless Plug
(30:39) But What About Bear Market Rallies?
(42:58) "I Have Zero Sell Signals"
(45:08) But What About The Inverted Yield Curve?
(47:44) The Unemployment Rate
(56:53) China Stocks and Gold
(01:04:44) Milton Berg's Outlook on Treasury Bonds
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 23 Jan 2023 15:23:00 -0000Dusting Off The Recession Playbook | Tian Yang
The last time Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception, appeared on Forward Guidance in August 2022, he gave viewers a well-timed warning that the commodity supercycle was on hold. Now, he returns to argues that the world is well on its way to a global recession that will provide a hostile environment for risk assets. Yang shares his equity bottom checklist with Jack Farley to argue that equities have much more down to fall, and he explains why he thinks risk-off assets like bonds will perform well. Yang expects a blow-out of credit spreads and he thinks that the U.S. dollar will perform less well against other currencies than it does in a typical recession. Filmed on January 12th, 2023.
Follow Variant Perception on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception
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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
__
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:36) Base Case For 2023
(04:14) Where's The Recession?
(08:11) Liquidity
(18:25) Housing and Manufacturing Are Weak
(24:21) Interest Rates
(28:05) Cruve Ad
(29:08) China
(33:36) Underweight Equities (Asset Allocation Part 1)
(43:03) The Checklist For A Market Bottom
(47:19) Incredibly Rare Set-up in Gold"
(48:43) Overweight Bonds (Asset Allocation Part 2)
(55:19) Neutral On Commodities (Asset Allocation Part 3)
(01:02:26) The U.S. Dollar
(01:05:13) The Most Crowded Trade In Macro Right Now
(01:11:22) The VIX in 2023
Thu, 19 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000Transitory Goldilocks Is Here | Darius Dale
Darius Dale of 42 Macro once again joins Jack to share his macro view for 2023. Dale argues that, while inflation and growth are falling, inflation is falling so much faster than growth is falling, and economic resilience is rearing its head in many areas. As a result, it may appear that the so-called soft landing could be achieved this year. At least thats what many asset markets that Dale tracks closely are indicating.
This environment is conducive to risk assets rallying and volatility abating - at least in the short-term. However, Dale shares his own view that this current period of economic moderation is likely only a transitory goldilocks that will give way to a recession that begins in the fourth quarter of 2023. Dale also shares his outlook on China, bonds, and Bitcoin. Filmed on January 12, 2023.
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--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:19) Have The Odds Of A "Soft Landing" Increased?
(06:59) Transitory Goldilocks"
(13:53) The Fed Is Focused More On Wage Growth & Labor Market Now Than Inflation
(20:20) Odds Of The Fed Cutting Rates
(27:17) Permissionless Ad
(28:17) But Isn't Growth Falling Rapidly?
(40:13) Is Inflation Eating Away At Wealth?
(44:59) Is Liquidity Turning Up?
(53:53) Asset Allocation
(01:02:27) "Tons of Upside In China"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 18 Jan 2023 19:00:00 -0000Bank of Japan Widow-Makes Once Again | Weston Nakamura
The last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy.
At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing nothing. Despite the unprecedented scale of record-setting JGB buying (or, foreign and domestic investor selling pressure), the Bank of Japan delivered a unanimous vote of no change in Yield Curve Control policy for Governor Kuroda's second to last meeting of his historic, and dramatically controversial tenure of radical policy experimentation.
Ahead of today's policy release, Weston had been discussing his outlook for a "no-change" BOJ policy outcome, and had positioned for the event against market consensus, using the same framework that he and Jack had discussed at the end of December of market functioning and financial stability to determine policy outcome (as opposed to inflation-combating).
In addition to the Bank of Japan and the most intense market pressure they are currently under, Weston also explains what is behind the remarkable strength in the yen as of late, how it is possible for JGBs to yield above the so-called Yield Curve Control upper ceiling, and what's next for the "least predictable" major central bank, as we head into the critical end of Governor Kuroda's era.
See Weston and Jack from the previous December 2022 BOJ Day: Bank of Japans Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston NakamuraDec 21, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYR34YbXMvY&t=157s
Listen to Weston Nakamura and Emma Muhleman, CFA discuss the Bank of Japan in full detail on Twitter Spaces during live Japan trading hours ahead of the BOJ decision here: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BdGYyNpYAyGX?s=20
Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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__
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
__
Mon, 16 Jan 2023 23:38:31 -0000The Soft Landing Blue Pill Is Overpriced | Andy Constan
Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two blue pill scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Constan says he is positioned to fade these two scenarios by being short everything - namely, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Constan explains why he is betting on red pill scenarios of either a severe recession or higher-er for longer-er interest rates. Filmed on January 11, 2022.
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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
__
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:47) "I'm Short Everything"
(08:24) Blue Pill Scenarios (Soft Landing Or Fed Pivot) Are Less Likely Than Market Is Pricing In
(15:19) Betting Against Rate Cuts
(23:06) Curve ad
(24:08) Are Stocks Expensive Relative to Bonds?
(30:51) Equity Risk Premium (ERP)
(40:36) In China, Cash Is Trash
(49:08) Views on Commodities
(54:28) Can the Superb Macro Returns of 2022 Be Repeated?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 13 Jan 2023 22:24:47 -0000The Big Bank Deep Dive | Alex Gray
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
As big banks start to report their earnings, Jack turns to banking specialist Alex Gray for insight. Gray taps her prior experience both as a commercial banking underwriter and as a senior analyst of large cap banking stocks to glean insights from the fourth quarter reports of JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM)., Bank of America ($BAC), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Gray navigates the delicate balance between loan growth and credit quality, evaluates the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserves rapid rate hikes on the profitability and balance sheets of the nations largest money centers. As disclosed in the interview, Alex Gray currently serves as the director of finance for Blockworks.
Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:59) How To Value Bank Stocks
(03:10) Bank Profitability When Interest Rates Are At Zero
(10:07) How To Measure Credit Losses
(14:09) Commercial Lending Is In A New Bull Market
(21:17) The Importance of Collateral
(26:20) Permissionless Ad
(33:55) Current Default Rates Are Low (But Rising)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 12 Jan 2023 18:18:00 -0000Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? | Jeff Snider & Bob Elliott
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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With U.S. monthly inflation coming in negative, whats in store for the future economy and interest rate path? Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, and Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, discuss.
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Follow Jeff Snider on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:55) December CPI Report
(08:45) Is There Monetary Inflation?
(11:45) The Labor Market Remains Strong (Or Does It?)
(32:37) Personal Income
(34:43) Permissionless Plug
(35:43) Biblical Levels of Yield Curve Inversion
(54:25) Consumer Spending & Bank Lending
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 10 Jan 2023 20:55:00 -0000Jacob Shapiro on Russia, Ukraine, and China
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
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Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments and
geopolitics editor at Lykeion, joins Jack to share his geopolitical outlook for 2023. Jacob tells Jack why he thinks that Russias war again Ukraine will sadly continue for some time, and he explains how the war is impacting global supply chains, commodity prices, and international relations. Jacob also shares with Jack his take on Chinas economy, which is at a crossroads between a slow-motion train wreck of its collapsing real estate sector, and the reflationary tailwinds from the end of its zero-Covid policy. Filmed on January 10, 2022.
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Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:43) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
(06:07) Economic Consequences of The War
(13:35) China and India Are Buying Russian Oil In Bulk
(15:42) European Price Cap On Russian Oil
(19:47) Who Are Russia's Allies?
(22:52) How Might This War End?
(31:33) Permissionless Plug
(32:33) China
(35:34) Will Liquidity Be Restored In China?
(49:00) Taiwan & Semiconductors
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 09 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000The Era of American Stock Dominance Is Over | Kevin Muir
In December 2021, Kevin Muir, veteran trader and author of The Macro Tourist, came on Forward Guidance and made a series of bold predictions all of which came true. Now, with a red carpet rolled out for him, Kevin returns to Forward Guidance to share his predictions for 2023.
Kevin argues that U.S. stocks will underperform foreign equities, that 2023 will be far more boring than investors expect, and that deep trouble is brewing in private markets (venture capital, private equity, and private debt). Kevin also contends that the economy might fare better than many anticipate, and that bank stocks will do well.
Filmed the afternoon of January 6th, 2023.
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Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir
Kevin Muirs newsletter, The Macro Tourist, can be found here: https://themacrotourist.com/
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Kevins interview on Forward Guidance in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJkEokqqaKM&t=400s
--
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:27) The Fed
(05:43) When Will Recession Come (If At All)?
(13:32) 2023 Will Be More Boring Than People Expect
(18:09) The Bond Market Pain Might Continue
(25:01) Where Is The Terminal Rate?
(29:25) Curve Ad
(30:26) The Era of U.S. Equity Outperformance Is Over
(47:42) There Will Be Trouble In Private Markets
(01:00:54) The Tide Is Out, Who Will Be Left Swimming Naked?
(01:08:06) The Banks Will Do Fine
(01:13:57) Outlook on Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 06 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000Cryptos 2023 Health Check | Vance Spencer
Vance Spencer, co-founder of Framework Ventures, a venture firm that invests exclusively in digital assets, joins Jack to look back on cryptos rough 2022 and look forward to what is on the horizon. Spencer shares his framework for valuing digital assets, explains why he thinks the vast majority of crypto projects are unsuitable for this valuation methods, and offers his reasoning for why he is very bullish on Ethereum above all else.
Filmed on December 21, 2022.
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Follow Vance Spencer on Twitter https://twitter.com/pythianism
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:36) The Seeds of A Bear Market
(10:10) Why Vance Is Skeptical On Solana
(12:57) Crypto Health Check in 2023
(16:17) How Does Macro Impact Crypto?
(24:53) Permissionless Ad
(25:53) Big Tech
(27:38) Genesis And The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
(32:10) Crypto "Yield" And Its Many Problems
(35:59) Bitcoin
(41:08) Valuation of Eth
(45:24) Contagion Risks Within Crypto
(48:25) Tether
(50:48) Investment Strategies In A Bear Market
(52:33) Crypto Gaming & The Metaverse
(59:57) Who Had Accounts At FTX?
(01:01:48) Why have prices been rangebound over the past month?
(01:03:11) Non-Ethereum Projects That Vance Likes
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000Nightmare Scenario For The Fed | Felix Jauvin
Felix Jauvin, macro analyst at Reflexivity Research, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on liquidity, the Fed, and inflation. Jauvin argues that the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is removing from the financial system via quantitative tightening (QT) is being sterilized by the draining of the Feds reverse repo facility (RRP) - in other words, the Federal Reserve is removing money with one hand and adding money back with another. Jauvin shares his outlook on assets such as bonds, stocks, commodities, the dollar, and crypto.
Filmed on December 20, 2022.
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:29) Liquidity In 2023
(15:30) Reverse Repo & Treasury General Account (TGA)
(20:59) What's Going To Break?
(30:05) A "Nightmare Scenario" For Powell And The Fed
(34:16)Pivot And Yield Curve Control
(37:07) Views On Inflation
(43:57) Commodities Outlook
(48:57) Equities
(56:03) Crypto
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 02 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000A Masterclass In Central Banking | Professor Jane Knodell
Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and author of "The Second Bank of the United States: Central banker in an era of nation-building" joins the show for a masterclass in financial history. Taking us back to the founding of the First & Second Bank of the United States, Knodell discusses the origins of banking, central banking and everything in between, taking us on a tour from the late 1700's to present day. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:02) The First Bank In The United States
(04:29) The Coinage Act Of 1790
(08:37) The Financing Of The Revolutionary War
(14:40) How Successful Was The First Bank?
(17:14) The Second Bank of the United States: Central Banker in an Era of Nation-Building
(24:50) The Mechanics of "Discounts, Exchange & Treasury Debt"
(29:05) The Panic Of 1819
(33:02) The Panic of 1825 & The Role Of "Central" Banking
(40:12) Did The Second Bank of the United States Closing In 1836 Have Any Effect On The Panic Of 1837?
(46:29) The Panic Of 1907: The J.P. Morgan Bailouts
(53:55) The Financial System's Plumbing
(57:54) The Financing of WWI
(01:02:34) The Great Depression
(01:07:47) Can The Federal Reserve Print Money?
(01:11:13) Bretton Woods
(01:15:35) The Treasury-Fed Accord
(01:19:15) The FTX Fallout
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 29 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000All You Ever Wanted To Know About Interest Rates | DC Analyst
Interest rates are a key measure of the price of money, but as the plural suggests, there is one more than just one interest rate. Today Jack dives deep into the interest rate structure with whiz kid Kemen Linsuain, known commonly as DC Analyst, who knows a thing or two about the many different kinds of risk-free rates that punctuate the financial system.
Kemen tells of the Federal Funds rate, which is the nominal overnight rate that the Federal Reserve controls, to other rates within the Feds remit such as the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the reverse repo rate (RRP). Kemen and Jack then discuss overnight interest rates not within the Feds control such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), and then other rates and derivatives such as Treasury bill futures and swap rates.
Note: the vast majority of rates discussed in this conversation are short-term rates with minimal amounts of credit risk, and should not be confused with corporate bond yield, mortgage rates, or commercial banking rates. Lastly, Kemen shares his thoughts on crypto, and tells Jack about his latest venture into crypto as a content creator at Gauntlet.
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About Gauntlet: https://gauntlet.network/
DC Analyst blog: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/
Latest chartback from DC Analyst: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-17
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--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) Interest Rate Mayhem in 2022
(14:19) Repo Markets
(21:08) Curve Ad
(22:14) Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)
(37:03) Interest Rate Derivatives Market
(41:39) LIBOR to SOFR Transition
(50:14) Spread Between EFFR & SOFR (Effective Fed Funds Rate & Secured Overnight Financing Rate)
(55:26) Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) and Forward Rate Agreements (FRA)
(56:50) Negative Swap Spreads
(59:48) Term Premium
(01:02:12) Thoughts On The Fed
(01:06:53) Crypto & DeFi
(01:13:34) Where Did The (Crypto) Yield Come From?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 26 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000The Fed Will Tighten "As Far As They Can" Into 2023 | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves
Today Jack welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that transitory will die and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high.
Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets.
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--
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
--
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:59) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook
(09:33) The Tightening of Financial Conditions
(13:37 Forecasting The Fed Terminal Rate Into 2023
(20:33) Curve Ad
(21:36) A Classic Boom/Bust Cycle?
(29:12) Lagarde Is Undoubtedly Hawkish
(31:26) Should We Listen To The Fed's Forward Guidance?
(36:58) The Cycle of Financial Conditions
(47:19) Stocks, Bonds & The Wealth Effect
(49:54) 2023 Outlook For Risk Asset's
(56:37) Analysing The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening
(01:03:12) George & Joseph's Final Thoughts & Outlook For 2023
(01:12:00) The Outlook For Bonds Throughout 2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 22 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000Private Markets To Implode As Fed Hikes to 7% | Bilal Hafeez
Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins todays interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto.
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To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code JACK. Offer ends on January 6th, 2022.
Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hives analysis, check out Bilals piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/
--
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:42) Macro Outlook For 2023
(05:32) Severe Recession Incoming
(10:20) Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023
(22:55) Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain
(25:38) Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace
(31:16) China
(38:15) Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess?
(42:08) Bond Market Outlook
(49:39) Energy
(54:21) Is Europe In A Recession?
(55:51) How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates?
(57:35) Discount To Macro Hive Prime
(01:00:24) The U.S. Dollar
(01:09:59) Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 20 Dec 2022 23:26:09 -0000Bank of Japans Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston Nakamura
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and theres no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado.
Weston tells Jack that the BOJs decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year.
Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022.
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--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Mon, 19 Dec 2022 13:15:00 -0000The Technicals Are Bearish | Katie Stockton
Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies and portfolio manager of the $TACK ETF, joins Jack Farley to share her analysis of the charts of stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the first technical analysis interview on Forward Guidance, Stockton explains and incorporates indicators such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Ichimoku clouds, moving averages, and stochastic oscillators. She tells Jack that in the short-run, the technicals remain bearish for the S&P 500, and she also offers her reading on oil, gold, and the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on Friday, December 16, 2022.
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__
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
__
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:23) Key Concepts In Technical Analysis (TA)
(05:30) Support And Resistance
(11:06) Combining Different Indicators To Draw Conclusions
(24:02) Curve Ad
(25:08) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explainer
(33:02) Outlook on S&P 500
(35:36) Outlook on Oil
(44:48) Gold
(46:47) Treasury Yields
(50:24) Sector Analysis
(54:18) Common Mistakes In Technical Analysis
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 16 Dec 2022 22:30:00 -0000Chinas Economic House Of Cards | Kyle Bass & Nick Glinsman
Todays interview is something unlike any other thats ever appeared on Forward Guidance. It concerns China, a country that once was the engine of global economic growth, but now is in the middle of its worst recession in over 20 years. Can Chinas economy emerge stronger than ever? Lets just say that todays guests, Kyle Bass and Nick Glinsman, are not optimistic. Kyle Bass is the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital and Nick Glinsman is the founder of Malmgren Glinsman & Partners.
An important disclaimer: a guest today makes serious allegations that are solely his own opinion. Blockworks does not necessarily agree with these claims, some of which are unverified or unverifiable, and in no way endorses them. As always, nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
--
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:06) Kyle Bass 2023 Macro Outlook
(04:20) Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices?
(13:10) China's Economy
(23:00) The Chinese Communist Party
(28:46) Why Won't Beijing Reflate?
(43:57) Russia and Putin
(48:42) Uranium and the Fed
(52:19) Outlook on Bonds in 2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Dec 2022 22:20:00 -0000Everything You Need To Know About The Feds Meeting | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, joins Jack to share her views on the upcoming extremely busy week, which sees the release of Novembers inflation (CPI) data on Tuesday and the culmination of the Feds FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, December 12.
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:04) Preparing For This Week's Fed Meeting
(04:37) The Dot Plot
(13:50) What Are The Odds Of A Hidden Pivot?
(17:42) The Job Market
(24:54) How Hot Will Inflation Be?
(30:21) Quantitative Tightening (QT)
(40:46) The Housing And Auto Market Is Getting Even Worse
(45:40) Recession
(48:08) Consumer Spending Is Falling
(51:33) Can Services Save Us?
Fri, 09 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000Felix Zulauf: Credit Meltdown Will Force The Federal Reserve To Backtrack On Tight Money Policy
Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share his market outlook for 2023 and beyond. Zulauf argues that recessions in China and Europe will weaken corporate earnings, and that as the U.S. economy also slows down, pessimistic earnings guidance from companies will quickly catalyze severe stock market declines. However, he thinks that the bear market will likely end in early 2023, because a credit event (likely in China) will force central banks - most notably the Federal Reserve - to stop tightening monetary policy, and that this pivot will arrest the fall in equity prices. Zulauf tells Jack Farley that Chinas growing trade dominance is augering profound geopolitical and economic changes, and he shares his view on sovereign bond yields, cryptocurrencies, and commodity prices. Filmed on December 7, 2022
Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. For more information, go to https://www.felixzulauf.com/
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--
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:27) Profound Geopolitical Change
(05:51) Stock Market Outlook
(9:31) Potential Credit Meltdown In China
(18:06) Curve Sponsor Reading
(19:11) China's Stock Market Does Not Represent The Chinese Economy
(22:09) Why Is The Euro So Weak?
(24:09) The U.S. Dollar
(26:57) Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Treasury Bonds
(35:27) The Federal Reserve Will Pivot In Early 2023
(39:22) The Final Phase Of The Equity Bear Market
(45:12) Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 08 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000David Rubenstein, Billionaire Investor Who Hired Jay Powell, On What Makes A Great Investor
Today Jack speaks to a true titan in the investment business. David Rubenstein is the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm with over $360 Billion in assets under management, and he joins Forward Guidance to share lessons from his latest book, How To Invest: Masters On The Craft, in which he spoke to legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and Jim Simons about the keys to their success.
Link to David Rubensteins book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Invest-David-M-Rubenstein/dp/1982190302
Link to David Rubensteins interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nwf_VySYFU&t=601s
Link to David Rubensteins interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLE3eRMFUJo&t=17s
--
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:25) What Makes A Great Investor?
(04:16) David Rubenstein's Journey Into Private Equity
(09:06) Importance Of Getting Involved In On The Ground Floor
(11:42) Fundraising
(19:22) Inflation
(21:05) The Business Cycle
(24:22) Venture Capital and Technology Valuations
(27:36) Economic Outlook
(29:22) How High Will The Federal Reserve Hike Interest Rates?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 05 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000Cash Is King In Multi-Year Recessionary Bear Market | Chance Finucane
Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack to discuss his investment outlook at this current point in the business cycle. Finucane argues that the U.S. is at the beginning of a multi-year economic slowdown that will see corporate earnings dwindle materially across many sectors, and that accordingly preservation of capital is top priority.
Finucane and Farley discuss the housing and auto market, outlook on fixed-income and the Federal Reserve, as well as individual stock ideas. Filmed on November 21, 2022.
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--
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:26) Outlooks on Growth and Inflation
(02:39) The Housing Market Recession
(05:33) The Auto Market
(08:05) General Investment Outlook
(10:49) MegaCap Tech Stocks
(13:19) Banks and Other Financial Stocks
(14:15) Fixed-Income Outlook
(16:49) Is Sentiment Too Bearish?
(19:34) How Much Will Corporate Earnings Grow In 2023 (if at all)?
(22:19) Curve Ad
(23:21) How High Will The Fed Hike Interest Rates?
(27:09) Municipal and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
(28:34) Even More Bearish Than Summer 2022
(33:16) Long-Duration Treasurys
(34:41) Sectors and Individual Stocks
(36:31) Will Companies Be Able to Pass Costs Onto Consumers In 2023?
(42:56) Energy
(44:32) About Oxbow
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000The Car Market Is Crashing | Paul Hodges
To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/.
Having shared his dire warnings about the chemicals market, Paul Hodges, and author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share equally grim tidings about the global automotive industry, which Hodges argues is entering a severe recession. Hodges notes that sales volumes and car prices are falling sharply around the world, and he discusses cyclical as well as secular themes in Asian, European, and American automobile markets.
Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co.
--
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
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--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:50) The Health Of The Global Car Market
(05:08) The U.S. Auto Market
(13:49) Car Values Are Falling - What's Next?
(24:32) Slowdown in Chinese Auto Market
(30:30) Tesla
(33:43) Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - When WIll They Become Mainstream?
(45:23) Europe's Auto Market
(51:23) Investing In Electric and Autonomous Vehicles
(01:06:51) China's Relationships with Non-Chinese Automakers
(01:10:33) The pH Report As a Research Partner of Forward Guidance
(01:14:05) The Chemicals Market Remains Stupendously Bearish
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 29 Nov 2022 21:11:26 -0000FTX and The Money Noose: Scott Skyrm On The Fall of MF Global
Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global. Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of risk-free trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by yes men, and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global).
Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much worse than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jacks reading that FTX likely misused (or at least mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (repo) markets in 2022, as well as the Feds dilemma between price stability and financial stability.
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____
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global?
(02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008
(11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds?
(20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX
(23:29) Cross-Margining
(32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades
(40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades
(43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM
(47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate
(53:59) The Fed's Dilemma
(58:51) The Repo Market in 2022
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 28 Nov 2022 20:30:00 -0000CeFi Crypto Contagion Is Just Getting Started, Says Analyst Who Predicted FTX's Fall
James Block, author at Dirty Bubble Media, joins Jack to explain the knock-on effects of the demise of the crypto exchange FTX.
James is an amateur crypto researcher who saw in FTX and Alameda Research what many crypto professionals missed: hidden leverage, inflated assets, and in some cases, outright fraud.
He now shares his view on potential contagion to Gemini, Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), BlockFi, and other firms in the crypto ecosystem.
James writings at Dirty Bubble Media can be found here: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/
James piece on Alameda Research: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent
James piece on Digital Currency Group (DCG): https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/digital-currency-grift
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___
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
__
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:45)"Is Alameda Research Insolvent?"
(03:02) Red Flags With Alameda & Celsius
(12:35) Binance
(15:01) Crypto Contagion
(19:13) Curve Ad
(20:16) Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Genesis
(35:16) Where Did Crypto Yield Come From?
(40:00) Was The $8 Billion Ever At FTX To Begin With?
(45:11) What's The Next Shoe To Drop?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 24 Nov 2022 12:00:00 -0000Liquidity In Crypto Is Declining | Scott Freeman
Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Frieds (SBF) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022.
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___
Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com
___
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
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__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:35) Scott Freeman's Background
(04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015
(09:06) Crypto in 2020
(12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022
(15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto
(19:23) Where Does Yield Come From?
(20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising?
(22:07) Algorand Ad
(23:52) Alameda & FTX
(29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried
(34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges
(39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es)
(40:13) General Market Outlook
(42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)
(49:07)Is There A Silver Lining?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 21 Nov 2022 14:30:00 -0000Learning From Market Tremors | Hari Krishnan
Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline.
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Hari Krishnans book, Market Tremors: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj
--
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:24) Dominant Agents" In Finance
(04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful?
(13:26) The Shadow Banking System
(17:28)The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks
(19:12) Curve Ad
(25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative?
(27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX
(38:56) Leverage Within Crypto
(42:45)Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners
(44:36) Volatility In 2022
(58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market
(01:04:27) The Role Of Macro
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 17 Nov 2022 14:30:00 -0000Joseph Wang & William White: Mammoth Interest Rate Hikes Are Causing Trouble In Sovereign Debt
Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve.
They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the debt trap, and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability.
William Whites work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/
Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/
--
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__
Academic papers referenced:
"Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah
"Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8
"Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq
William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling:
https://rb.gy/robwk2
--
Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
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Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:09) Looking Back At 2022
(04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions
(11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error"
(23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models?
(25:25) Algorand Ad
(27:09)If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do?
(40:43) The Debt Trap
(46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake?
(54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap
(58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money
(01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here
(01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 14 Nov 2022 13:45:00 -0000Forced Retirement Selling May Disrupt Santa Rally | Zed Francis
Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022.
--
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About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/
Convexitas piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/
Convexitas piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/
__
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:33) The Financialization Of Everything
(10:27) Private Markets
(17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained
(19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense
(26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail
(38:41) Stocks and Volatility
(41:53) "Ignore The VIX"
(45:19) Tail Risk
(50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks?
(01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market
(01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen
(01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts
(01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays
(01:26:00) Basis Risk
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 10 Nov 2022 19:16:00 -0000Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone
Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists.
McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so.
NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTXs distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX.
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___
Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com
___
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:15) We're Going Down"
(05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto
(07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil
(11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked?
(22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand?
(26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic?
(29:42) Forward Curve In Oil
(38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession
(47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil?
(50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation
(55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 09 Nov 2022 22:42:11 -0000Theres Just Not Enough Energy | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins
Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.
This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g
--
Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy
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More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/
--
Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com or jack@blockworks.co
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
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Tue, 08 Nov 2022 23:00:00 -0000Everything You Need To Know About Crypto's FTX-Driven Downturn | Matt Fiebach
In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges.
Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day, and FTXs rumored acquisition by Binance, a digital asset behemoth led by Chengpeng Zhao (CZ) that, should the acquisition close, would become the undisputed king of all crypto exchange. Matt and Farley consider financial contagion risk within crypto as well as in the broader traditional finance (tradfi) world.
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:54)Overview of FTX's Problems
(02:49) Alameda Research's Balance Sheet
(09:09) FTX As A Big Blue-Chip Player In Crypto
(13:16) Possible Outcomes
(16:31) Was FTX Investing Customer Assets?
(20:25) Risk Of Contagion
(27:48) Matt Fiebach's Background
(30:42) About Blockworks Research
(31:49) Closing Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 07 Nov 2022 12:00:00 -0000The Economy Is Slowing Much Faster Than The Fed Thinks | Peter Tchir
In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter.
Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserves models indicate.
Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewing geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. will likely continue to weigh upon financial markets, and he shares his insights on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe.
--
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--
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:27) "I Would Disagree With Powell" On The U.S. Economy
(06:03) "Credit Bubbles Only Happen With Safe Assets"
(08:17) Layoffs In Big Tech
(12:17) This Will Be A Deep And Lasting Recession
(14:31) The Semiconductor Industry
(20:34) China
(33:52) Energy
(36:56)) Regulation of Fossil Fuels
(40:41) When Will The Drawdown of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Stop?
(44:27) Will Europe's Energy Problems Cause A Recession?
(48:26) The Strong Dollar Is Destabalizing The Global Financial System
(59:30) The Increasing Political Pressure On The Federal Reserve
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 04 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Chemicals Market Is Bearish Stupendously Bearish | Paul Hodges
To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/.
Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand will slow rapidly around the globe. After reviewing how and why the chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy, Hodges tells Jack Farley how the collapse in chemical prices is a harbinger for a severe global recession. Unrelenting high energy prices, which are a key input to chemical production, are making the chemical refining business even more challenging. Hodges and Farley also discuss the future of inflation and how it is affected by central banks, geopolitics, and demographics.
Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co.
--
Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1
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--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
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Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:51) Chemicals Market Is Indicating The Recession Will Be Deep
(14:03) The Mood Is Grim" In The Chemicals Business
(19:21) Demographics Are Not Helping!
(23:25) The Yield Curve Is Not The Be-All End-All
(32:35) Chemical Prices Are Collapsing
(40:04) Has Inflation Peaked?
(44:44) In A Recession, Earnings Go Down
(46:19) The Fed Put Is No More
(52:51) A Food Crisis Is Brewing
(55:46) Oil and Natural Gas
(01:03:31) How Will Europe Handle This Winter?
(01:11:17) There Is Considerable Downside Risk"
(01:14:42) Discount To pH Report, Paul Hodges' Research Service
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 03 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0000Jim Bianco & Joseph Wang on November Fed Meeting: Much Higher For Much Longer!
Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch
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___
Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com
___
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
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Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:42) General Thoughts on The November FOMC Meeting
(04:48) New Sentence On Monetary Policy Acting With A Leg
(12:57) Strong Labor Market
(19:44) Why Should The Fed Not Hike By 75 Basis Points in December?
(23:29) Powell's Yield Curve Is About To Invert
(31:05)Is A Soft Landing Still Possible?
(43:38) A Treasury Buyback Program Is NOT Coming to Rescue The Bond Market (At Least In 2022)
(51:42) A Financial Accident Is Getting More And More Likely
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 01 Nov 2022 20:41:53 -0000Joseph Wang & Nick Timiraos: What You Need To Know For The November Fed Meeting
With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Feds job even harder. Timiraos
Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd.
______
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______
Joseph Wangs book, Central Banking 101: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747
Nick Timiraos book, Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic And Prevented Economic Disaster: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/
Nick Timiraos article: Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates Coming Path: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181
Nick Timiraos article: Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614
Josephs Wang piece, The Money Still Flows: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/
Joseph Wangs piece on Treasury Buybacks (Quantitative Buybacks): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/
______
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
______
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting
(11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong
(19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet
(28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak"
(31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback
(31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target?
(46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates?
(49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell
(56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet?
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
______
Mon, 31 Oct 2022 16:53:23 -0000Inflation Will Run Hot For The Rest Of The Decade, Says Vincent Deluard
Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration.
Deluard proposes a holy Trinity portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022.
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__
Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex
__
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary
(17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory
(27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression
(39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly
(46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks?
(51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep?
(57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF)
(01:02:51) Energy
(01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market
(01:14:44) Brazil and Gold
(01:16:40) Favorite Books
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
___
Fri, 28 Oct 2022 17:23:00 -0000IMPORTANT: Announcing Blockworks Latest Podcast, 0xResearch
Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed pivot might impact asset prices.
Filmed on October 26, 2022.
Follow Sam Martin on Twitter https://twitter.com/swmartin19
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Sign up for the Research daily newsletter here: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily-debrief-by-blockworks-research/
--
Timestamps;
(00:00) Intro
(00:25) Macro and Crypto
(03:10) Navigating A Crypto Bear Market
(10:48) Ethereum Supply Curve
(28:18) About The 0xResearch Podcast
(30:14) Zero Knowledge Roll-ups
(36:37) Ethereum & Cosmos
(44:55) Bitcoin
(52:30) Jack Answers Macro Questions
Fri, 28 Oct 2022 16:30:00 -0000The European Central Bank Goes On The Offensive | Daniel Neilson (LIVE)
Daniel Neilson, economist and author of Minksy and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Banks efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade.
Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks.
Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollar
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_
Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.
_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
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Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 27 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000Lyn Alden: The Bursting Of The Sovereign Bond Bubble
In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures.
1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing pressures for central banks to reliquify their beleaguered bond markets.
Filmed on October 20th, 2022.
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--
Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
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Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(19:54) What Will Cause The Fed To Pivot?
(26:21) The Treasury Market Is Not In Full Panic Mode Yet
(33:45) Recession Risk
(35:24) Asset Allocation
(38:26) The Dollar and Emerging Markets
(45:45) Energy
(53:49) When Will The Dollar Stop Rising?
(01:01:54) The Long-Term Debt Cycle
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 24 Oct 2022 18:06:00 -0000The Fed Wont Rescue The Housing Market | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a biblical quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booths description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernankes Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot.
__
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__
Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex
__
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:21) The Housing Recession
(09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck
(19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic?
(23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex
(24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking
(26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue
(31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022"
(43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market?
(48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing
(51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature"
(53:57)Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move?
(58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S.
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 20 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Fed Blundered In 2008 And Its Blundering Now | Richard Field
Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Feds current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake.
--
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--
Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off:https://fgpodcast.link/algorand
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
(00:00) Algorand Promotion
(00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize
(04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake?
(14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out?
(28:02) Algorand Promotion
(29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out?
(30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake?
(37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field
(52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation"
(54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It?
(57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market?
(01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent?
(01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008"
(01:37:34) Outro
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 18 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000Oil Will Dethrone The Fed (Heres Why) | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins
Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kuppy Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Feds job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment.
Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.
--
Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy
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More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
(00:00) KEDM promotion
(00:51) Intro
(01:07) Overall Macro Thesis
(11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve?
(16:06) The Bull Case For Oil
(22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting
(30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong"
(35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment
(40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil
(55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season
(1:02:41) A Market Crash
(1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM)
(1:11:19) KEDM promotion
(1:12:16) Outro
--
Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 17 Oct 2022 16:00:00 -0000Banks Are Finally Making Money Again | Chris Whalen
Its banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking(taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans.
That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalens unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, youll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14.
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--
Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
(00:00) Bittrex Ad
(00:10) Intro
(00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks
(03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over"
(07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend)
(09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning
(12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be?
(16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business
(21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT)
(23:18) Bittrex Ad
(23:49) Winter For Investment Banking
(27:48) The Biggest Risks
(30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat
(35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)
(38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses?
(47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America
(55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession?
(58:09) FinTech
(59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS)
(01:01:51) Outro
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 13 Oct 2022 13:00:00 -0000George Noble: A 20-50% Market Crash Is Coming
Filmed on October 11, 2022.
When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented return free risk and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact that he would be shocked if the S&P 500 werent under 3000 within 3 months (as of time of recording on October 11, 2022, the S&P 500 stood at 3850).
__
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Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) intro
(03:30) U.K. Gilt Crisis
(16:20) The Labor Market
(20:16) Energy and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance)
(22:52) The Bull Market In Narratives Is Over
(27:20) Just How Bearish Are You, George?'
(30:51) The Bull Case
(34:07) The Bond Market Is Wrong
(39:02) Will A Recession Cause The Fed To Come To The Rescue?
(47:03) Cash Is King
(50:33) Bad News Is Bad News
(58:51)When Will The Market Bottom?
(01:09:28) Frogs In The Pot
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 10 Oct 2022 14:00:00 -0000The Bond Market Is Already Broken - Stocks and Housing Are Next | Harley Bassman & Joseph Wang
Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jacks view, have predicted and understood this years sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve.
Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration.
Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022.
--
Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at:http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex
--
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--
Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wangs writings can be found athttps://rb.gy/oocxuzand Bassmans latest commentary as The Convexity Maven can be found here:https://rb.gy/xbibuj.
--
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit:https://rb.gy/uxefzo
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(01:00) Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over?
(11:57) Risks in The Stock Market
(13:53) When Will Powell Pivot?
(18:45) The Housing Market Is Already Broken
(20:37) What Will Be The First To Break?
(28:08) Bittrex Ad
(28:42) What Will Be The First To Break?
(28:45) How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off
(34:39) Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds
(40:31) The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market
(48:12) If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do?
(52:33) Questions From The Audience
(55:29) Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves
(59:05) Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market
(1:02:38) Will Commercial Banks Lose Money?
(1:04:21) Reverse Repo Facility
(1:05:07) Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg?
(1:08:17) How High Will The Fed Hike To?
(1:09:31) Outro
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 06 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000Learning From the Most Ruthless Robber Baron (Jay Gould) | Greg Steinmetz
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit
Greg Steinmetz, investor and financial writer, joins Jack to share insights from his new book,American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Streets Biggest Fortune. Steinmetz maps the financial skullduggery of Jay Gould, an infamous robber baron and investor whose market manipulations left an indelible mark on finance. Steinmetz tells Jack about Goulds unscrupulous schemes in railroad stocks and gold, which destabilized the financial system and made him one of the most hated man in America. Invoking modern-day analogies such as Elon Musk and meme stocks, Steinmetz evaluates the legacy of Americas most daring and ruthless financier, and offers his view on what modern-day investors can learn from Goulds life.
--
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) Chapter: Why Jay Gould?
(04:05) Gould's Greatest Misdeeds
(07:10) Chapter: Cornering The Gold Market
(14:18) Fragility of The Banking System During "Free Banking" Era
(16:56) Gould's "Deposit Trick"
(20:02) Tricks in the Gilded Age vs. Tricks in 2022
(24:50) Jay Gould and the Media
(27:29) Why Was Gould So Hated?
(29:13) "Don't Fight the Fed"
(33:48) The Railroad Business in the 19th Century
(37:03) Investor Psychology
(41:38) Lessons Learned From Jay Gould
(45:01) Why Are There So Many Structurally Unprofitable Companies?
(46:48) Gould and Valuation
(49:59) Final Lessons From Gould's Legacy
(52:46) Outro
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 03 Oct 2022 13:00:00 -0000Liquidity Spiral In The Bond Market Is Causing "Tremendous Stress" | Jim Bianco
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit
Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research LLC, joins Jack Farley to explain how the meltdown in the British bond (gilt) market, which occurred on Wednesday, September 28th, is exposing serious cracks in the plumbing of the financial system. Bianco argues that the Bank of Englands injection of liquidity was necessary in order to prevent the failure of a major institution. Bianco tells Farley that the Federal Reserve is not close to pivoting to a looser policy because the labor market remains strong. Bianco breaks down key bond market concepts, such as convexity and duration, explains why we are likely already in a recession, and argues that the work-from-home trend is here to stay. Filmed on Thursday, September 29th.
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Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at:https://bit.ly/3M1qNIU
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:30) Chaos In the U.K. Government Bond ("Gilt") Market
(08:53) What's Next To Break?
(15:41) What Can Bring Inflation Down (Other Than A Global Recession)?
(19:18) The Stress On Banks Is Tremendous"
(33:46) Are Bonds Attractive At These Levels?
(36:56) Bianco's Outlook on Stocks
(38:47) Im Going To Channel My Inner Zoltan Pozsar Here"
(51:05) Why Working From Home Is A Permanent Trend
(57:09) Closing Thoughts On The Labor Market and The Fed
(1:02:14) Asset Allocation in Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto
(1:04:49) Outro
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 29 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000Oil Will Trade Flat To Down Until Biden Backs Down & China Re-Opens | Rory Johnston
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/
Rory Johnston, investor at Price street and author of Commodity Context, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the price of oil, the commodity at the heart of the turmoil in financial markets and the global economy. Johnston explains why he thinks oil will trade flat to down in the short-term as he notes that Chinas zero-covid policy has sharply curtailed oil demand but that may change in 2023.He argues that the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the U.S. stockpile of emergency oil reserves, has drastically changed the supply dynamics and has likely depressed the price. Johnston also shares with Farley his views on other important drivers of oil market such as the proposed price cap, sanctions on Russian oil, and the response function from U.S. shale oil producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
NOTE: This interview was filmed on September 23rd, a day where the price of oil fell by as much as 7%.
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:13) Why Is Oil Crashing?
(05:41) Demand Destruction & Recession Risk
(12:46) Is The Backwardation In Oil
(16:44) Biden's Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve
(27:21) Price Cap On Russian Oil
(36:18) The Gasoline Crisis
(39:56) Coal
(42:53) Volatility and Illiquidity In Oil Markets
(46:57) European Electricity Prices
(50:17) Natural Gas Unit Economics
(54:02) The Mechanics Of A Price Cap on Russian Oil
(1:02:18) U.S. Shale
(1:11:49) Is Oil Going To Go Up?
(1:14:21) How Would A Recession Impact The Price Of Oil?
(1:16:35) About Commodity Context
(1:18:43) Closing Thoughts On Twitter Sentiment
(1:20:57) Outro
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 26 Sep 2022 12:33:00 -0000What Will Break First? | Joseph Wang & Peter Crane
With the Fed hiking interest rates rapidly in order to fight inflation, cash is finally earning its highest yield since before the Great Financial Crisis. Peter Crane, President of Crane Data, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, join Jack to discuss how the growing attractiveness of cash might cause markets to break as investors pull capital out of risk assets and deploy it in cash and money market funds, which harvest yields on cash by investing them in ultra-short duration loans to extremely safe counterparties, primarily the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on September 22, 2022.
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(00:00) Introduction
(02:10) Reflecting On the Fed's September FOMC Meeting
(04:48) What Is A Money Market Fund?
(14:37) What Will Break?
(18:41) Maturity & Composition
(25:31) Why Are There No Inflows Into Money Market Funds?
(27:37) Quantitative Tightening (QT)
(31:316) Who Invests In Money Market Funds?
(39:19) Offshore Dollar Money Market Funds
(43:03) New SEC Regulation on Money Market Funds ("Swing Pricing")
(51:45) What Part of The Financial System Will Crack First?
(1:05:12) How Bad Is Treasury Liquidity?
(1:06:33) Pete Crane on Stablecoins
(1:10:55) Joseph Wang On Sales of Mortgage-Backed Securities
(1:12:16) Outro
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 22 Sep 2022 13:01:43 -0000"I'm Surprised The Market's Not Down More" | Aswath Damodaran
When trying to find a culprit for the bear market in stocks this year, investors often point to the surging yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. But thats only part of the story. Today Jack is lucky to speak to Dr. Aswath Damodaran, professor of valuation and corporate finance at NYU Stern School of Business, who is a pioneer in the field of valuation. Damodaran explains how the intrinsic value of a stocks is its future cash flows discounted back to the present with a discount rate, which is the sum of a risk-free rate on a Treasury bond and an equity risk premium. Damodaran notes that, in addition to risk-free rates surging higher, equity risk premia have expanded significantly. Damodaran also shares his views on inflation, the Federal Reserve, as well as currencies and crypto. Farley aFilmed on September 9, 2022.
Data sets can be found on Aswath Damodarans website: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
Lectures and presentations can be found on Aswath Damodarans YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:35) The "Sleep Test"
(03:40) Inflation's Impact on Equity Valuations
(19:43) Equity Duration
(40:41) Cost of Capital for Individual Companies
(44:17) Commodity & Energy Stocks
(52:06) How Liquidity Increases Asset Values
(59:53) Crypto, Currencies, and Commodities: Why They Are Impossible To Truly Value
(1:11:29) Closing Thoughts On Overconfidence
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 20 Sep 2022 19:16:34 -0000The Sovereign Debt Crisis Is Coming | Brent Johnson
Why has the U.S. dollar exploded higher this year against other currencies, and what does its rise mean for the global economy?Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and outspoken dollar bull, joins Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast, to share his thoughts on what the strength of the greenback indicates about inflation, central banks, and growth rates. Johnson argues that a sovereign debt crisis for China and other emerging markets is within the cards. Filmed on September 14, 2022, on the second day of the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit.
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Mon, 19 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Bear Market Has Only Just Begun | Ted Oakley
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Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack Farley to argue that asset prices remain well above their fair value, and that the drawdowns investors have seen in 2022 are likely not over. Oakley shares his outlook on inflation, the business cycle, and the Federal Reserve, and he outlines where he is finding value and safety for his investors in this turbulent macro environment.
Filmed on September 6, 2022.
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:38) Why Stocks Remain Overvalued
(11:04) Why A Deep Recession Is Imminent
(16:02) Energy
(20:52) Fixed Income
(28:14) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation and Interest Rates
(32:32) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve?
(41:44) Contrarian View
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 15 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian
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Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Jack to argue that European energy inflation will not, as many believe, cause an economic crisis. Instead, Dillian contends that, no matter the long-term consequences, governments will find solutions to the energy shortage such as price caps on commodity prices, which Dillian says will crush speculators. Dillian shares his framework for evaluating investor sentiment in order to discern the mood of the market and identify ideal turning points to take on contrarian positions.
Filmed on September 8, 2022.
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:33) Measuring Sentiment via Twitter
(04:08) Why Jared Thinks Europe Can Handle Its Energy Situation
(06:08) "Speculators Will Get Crushed"
(08:08) The Low Cost Basis Fallacy
(14:43) Natural Gas
(16:30) Price Caps In Energy May Be Coming
(21:07) Why Jared Was Bullish on Oil in early 2021
(25:30) The Bubble In Macro Doom
(27:12) Central Banks Can't Print Oil
(31:43) Outlook on Housing & Stocks
(36:22) Jared Dillian As Head Of The Federal Reserve
(40:06) "Why Are You Not More Bearish?"
(48:25) The Dollar
(56:22) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation
(58:40) Jared's Book & Concert
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 13 Sep 2022 18:00:00 -0000False Dawn: Why The Rally Is Over | Andy Constan & Joseph Wang
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Today Jack welcomes Andy Constan, macro investor and publisher of The Damped Spring Report, and Joseph Wang, former senior Fed trader and author of Fedguy.com, to discuss how the Feds reduction of its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting market liquidity and future returns.
Constan argues that favorable market conditions that allowed risk assets to rise during the summer are no longer present, and that this false dawn is over. Wang argues that QT will drain the banking system of reserves and the Fed may have to plug leaks in the financial plumbing.
Filmed on September 7, 2022.
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:44) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Markets
(10:38) Equity & Bond Market Flows Over The Past Few Months
(15:46) Volatility (Vol) Targeting
(24:18) Equity Risk Premium Model
(32:13) The "False Dawn" In Asset Prices
(38:28) Joseph Wang on Treasury Issuance
(43:58) Joseph on "The Reserve Gap"
(53:50) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime
(57:11) Andy Constan's Outlook on Bonds
(1:02:02) How Far Can The Fed Go In Hiking Rates?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Sep 2022 10:58:00 -0000The Rise of "Legal Fraud" | Bethany McLean
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On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack interviews prolific author and journalist, Bethany McLean. McLean's known most prominently for her 2003 book, The Smartest Guys in The Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron. With her coverage of financial scandals in the early 2000s, no one is better equipped for today's discussion about fraud, loopholes, and more.
McLean interprets the seismic disruptions in the housing and energy market through her prior work on mortgage-securitizing giant Fannie Mae and on the American shale revolution. McLean argues that financial crimes always require the complicity of the victim, and contends that anyone who thinks they can predict the energy markets or inflation is sorely mistaken.
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:31) How Was The Enron Fraud Allowed To Happen?
(12:18) The Rise of Legal Fraud
(19:07) Dotcom Bubble 2.0 and Private Equity
(23:53) The Housing, Mortgage, and Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Markets
(31:55) Inflation And The (Reverse) Wealth Effect
(34:34) The Energy Crisis
(46:00) Green Energy
(48:20) McLean's New Book
(49:26) Fictitious Billionaires And Other Hangovers From The 2020 Money Printing Bonanza
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 08 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Eurodollar Market Is Dead, Says Godfather of Financial Derivatives | Dr. Richard Sandor
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Every day, trillions of dollars worth of interest rate derivatives are traded back and forth. And yet despite its stunning size today, 50 years ago the interest rate derivative complex did not exist at all. Today Jack interviews Dr. Richard Sandor, chairman and CEO of the American Financial Exchange (AFX), who is known as the father of financial futures because he created the worlds first interest rate and bond futures in the 1970s. Sandor explains how the relentless inflation of the 1970s caused wild swings in interest rates that jeopardized financial stability, and how the financial futures he created helped tame (or at the very least, transfer) these risks.
Sandor argues that the London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR) to which many interest rate futures (often called eurodollar futures) are still pegged has been discredited by the schemes of banks to manipulate it (see link below on LIBOR scandal). Sandor shares his vision for the forthcoming LIBOR replacement in June 2023, and tells Jack about his companys benchmark, AMERIBOR.
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Article on LIBOR scandal: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor-scandal.asp
More info on Dr. Richard Sandor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_L._Sandor
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:40) Creating The World's First Interest Rate Future
(18:16) Creating A Two-Sided Market
(24:10) Paul Volcker's Role In Creating Interest Rate Volatility
(27:00) Eurodollars: "LIBOR Is Dead, The Emperor Has No Clothes"
(35:21) Replacements for LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)
(47:44) Carbon Futures
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 05 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Plumbing Of Global Finance Is Clogged | Joseph Wang & Daniel Neilson
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With the summer rally in risk assets two weeks in the rear view mirror, Jack welcomes two experts on the plumbing of the monetary system, former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Daniel Neilson, economist and author of Minsky and writer of the Soon Parted newsletter. Neilson and Wang exchange views on just how high the Federal Reserve will hike rates in order to tame inflation, with Wang calling Fed chair Powells speech at Jackson Hole a great performance.
Neilson shares insights on the changing size and composition of the European Central Banks balance sheet, and then he proceeds to teach Jack about what the relative levels of various repo rates indicates about the supply and demand for Treasury collateral. Lastly, Neilson shares his views on government crackdown of crypto mixer Tornado Cash. Daniel H. Neilson is the principal of Neilson Macro Advisors and author of Minsky from Polity Books, and his newsletter is called Soon Parted.
Filmed on August 31, 2022.
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Link to Daniel Neilsons piece on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB): https://www.soonparted.co/p/defrag
Link to Daniel Neilsons piece on Tornado Cash: https://www.soonparted.co/p/tornado-cash
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Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/
Daniel Neilsons writings can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:30) Analysis of Powell's Remarks at Jackson Hole
(09:54) Inflation Expectations
(17:17) Just How Far Behind The Curve Is The European Central Bank (ECB)?
(29:38) Plumbing Of The Repo System (Warning: Very Advanced)
(49:37) Tornado Cash
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 01 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Fed Doesnt Have What It Takes To Fight Inflation | Joseph Wang & Mish Shedlock
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NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powells remarks at Jackson Hole.
Jack welcomes former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Michael Mish Shedlock, economic blogger and investment advisor, to analyze the twin threats of inflation and recession, and the challenges investors and the Federal Reserve face as they try to navigate both. Shedlock argues that the economy is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve will likely overtighten which could kill the stock market. Wang argues that the risk is that the Federal Reserve is too loose, and notes that an excerpt from the July FOMC minutes which Wang saw as cowardly caused Wang to be more open to the view that Powell will cave to dovish political pressure. In his own words, this is the Fed of Arthur Burns.NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powells remarks at Jackson Hole.
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Joseph Wangs work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/
Mish Shedlocks writings can be found here: https://mishtalk.com/
Mishs article on housing: https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-crash-accelerates-sales-down-12-6-percent-in-july
July FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220727.pdf
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:37) Are We In A Recession Already?
(05:48) Housing
(15:00) Stagflation
(19:58)The Stock Market
(21:12) The Wang Pivot
(29:27) The Commercial Banking System
(35:16) Asset Allocation
(36:51) Gold
(39:53) The Pension Crisis
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 29 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000Convertible Bonds: The Everything Asset Class | Paul Latronica
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On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by Paul Latronica to discuss convertible bonds as an asset class, and more.
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) What Are Convertible Bonds?
(05:00) An Example
(19:56) Correlation Between Convertible Bonds and Equity
(33:13) Current Valuations
(50:44) Finding Alpha In Convertible Bonds
(55:20) Current Outlook
(1:01:51) Avoiding Pitfalls
(1:05:24) Greatest Risk For Convertible Bonds
(1:09:33) The Federal Reserve
(1:17:32) Most Frequent Mistake
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 25 Aug 2022 12:00:00 -0000The Global Shipping Crisis Is Not Over | Sal Mercogliano
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In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and shipping expert, who discusses the current global shipping crisis and its trajectory for the future.
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:09) Shipping As The Ultimate Driver Of Inflation
(15:15) Consolidation In The Shipping Industry
(22:11) Are There Enough Ships? (Answer: Yes)
(23:38) Emission Reduction Goals In Shipping As A Headwind To New Supply
(29:11) Liquified Natural Gas (LNG)
(33:30) Learning From History
(38:28) Recession's Impact on Shipping Rates
(44:50) How Profitable Is Shipping Now?
(47:11) Non-Owner Operators
(52:26) Cruise Lines
(1:00:50) Futures On Freight Rates?
(1:03:08) Individual Stocks
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 22 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Feds Ticking Time Bomb Is About To Explode | Joseph Wang & Chris Whalen
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In September, the Federal Reserve is set to remove even more liquidity from markets by taking its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program to the next level. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and veteran banker Chris Whalen, join Jack to explain how this additional wave of monetary tightening will send shockwaves through markets, particularly the two assets that comprise the Feds balance sheet: U.S. Treasuries and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS).
Joseph argues that the U.S. Treasury will likely enact a buyback program of its longer-duration securities in order to dampen QTs volatility, and Whalen contends that if the Federal Reserve sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (as opposed to merely letting them mature), armageddon will ensue.
Filmed on August 17, 2022.
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Read Joseph Wangs latest piece, The Marginal Buyer: https://fedguy.com/the-marginal-buyer/
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Joseph Wangs work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/
Chris Whalens work can be found here: rcwhalen.com
--
(00:00) Introduction
(01:32) The Effect of Quantitative Tightening (QT) On Commercial Banks
(21:00) Vulnerabilities in The Treasury Market
(25:15) The Conundrum in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)
(32:30) The Fed's Banking "Stress Test"
(43:43) Swelling Reverse Repo Facility
(48:22) The Fed's Giant Mortgage Problem
(59:53) How Far Will The Fed Go In Hiking Rates?
(1:02:03) Why Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Not Going Down During QT?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 18 Aug 2022 20:00:00 -0000Why Risk Appetite Is Back | Alfonso Peccatiello, Michael Kantrowitz, Andy Constan & Jack Farley
This is a recording of a Twitter spaces in which Jack Farley exchanges macro views with Alfonso Peccatiello, in a preview to their conversation at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in September 2022, which will feature Mike Green, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Jurrien Timmer. This recording also featured Andy Constan and Michael Kantrowitz.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 18 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000Liquidity Has Dried Up, Says $100 Billion Investor | Jeffrey Sherman
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Jeffrey Sherman, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, joins Jack to discuss how fixed income markets are handling a slowing economy and the Federals Reserves withdrawal of monetary accommodation.
Sherman breaks down how bond values over 2022 have dropped as credit spreads have widened and interest rates have risen. Sherman shares his outlook on the corporate bonds, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Sherman is circumspect after a strong two-month rally but thinks at this stage there is value to be found in agency & non-agency MBS as well as long-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on August 10, 2022.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(06:02) Are We In A Recession?
(14:01 )The Inverted Yield Curve
(22:25) Liquidity
(33:09) The "End" Of Forward Guidance
(41:17) Outlook on Long-Term Treasury Yields
(46:55) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 15 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Fed Is Not In Control Of The Eurodollar System | Hugh Hendry
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Hugh Hendry, macro investor and former chief investment officer of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Jack Farley to make the case that central banks are not in control of the global monetary order. Hendry argues that an inverted yield curve is showing that the Federal Reserve is making a severe policy error. He insists that the rises in consumer prices is not inflation as he defines it because they are not due to the extending of credit by commercial banks.
Hendry passionately exhorts the Chinese ruling class to empower the Chinese consumer and allow the Chinese Yuan (RenMinBi) to strengthen to what Hendry thinks is its true market value. Hendry tells Farley he expects commodity prices to remain high due to bad energy policy and he thinks that portfolio managers who are fueling the recent rally in risk assets are making a mistake. Filmed on August 4th, 2022.
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Timecodes:
(00:00) Introduction
(09:56) Why Rising Consumer Prices Is Not Inflation
(11:06) The Energy Crisis
(19:13) Paul Volcker
(21:56) China and the Global "Glut of Saving"
(28:09) The Eurodollar System
(34:08) Is The Fed Effective
(39:31) Did the Fed save the world in 2020
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 11 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000Real GDP Lending on Blockchain Could Be A Gamechanger | Bill Wolf
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Bill Wolf, Chief Investment Officer at TrustToken/TrustLabs joins Jack Farley to talk about all things blockchain: his journey into this new form of currency, real GDP loans, and stablecoins.
Bill and Jack talk about TrustToken and the services its business offers in the trading and lending space. What red flags does TrustToken find to help other firms who are looking to invest or take out loans? While struggling lenders in the CeFi space had no choice but to declare bankruptcy, Bill tells Jack that his company TrustToken has never had a single default on its platform. Watch to find out how his company avoided risks that have taken many other companies out.
Filmed the afternoon of August 2, 2022. Be on the lookout for The Investors Guide to TrueFi Capital Markets, coming out soon on Blockworks.co.
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:55) Bill's Journey into Blockchain
(07:58) Real GDP Loans on Blockchain
(17:05) Stablecoins
(23:26) Tether
(26:08) TrustToken's Structure
(38:05) Lending Terms
(47:34) Interest Rate Risks
(49:13) Fee Structure
(53:15) Definition Of A Credit Loss
(57:25) Lender Protections
(59:45) Correlation Risk
(1:08:47) "We're All Going To Pay For The Sins of Others"
(1:10:24) The Future Of Blockchain Lending
(1:13:57) The Fed
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 09 Aug 2022 13:00:00 -0000Real Estate Market Will Stay "Savagely Unhealthy" For A Long Time | Logan Mohtashami
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Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire joins Jack Farley to talk all things housing: how has the housing market changed since 2019 and what will happen to homes as we approach a recession?
Logan and Jack talk about inventory and rates in the housing market, as well as the challenges homebuyers may have entering this space. Does Logan think we will be able to get out this unhealthy real estate market soon? You need to watch to find out!
Filmed the afternoon of August 1, 2022.
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:58) The Current Health of the Real Estate Market
(12:37) Inventory
(16:30) Building Homes in the Early 2000's
(22:06) Rates
(31:51) Signs of a Recession
(48:44) Challenges in the Housing Market
(55:38) The State of Housing
(1:04:16) Effects of a Housing Recession
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 04 Aug 2022 20:30:00 -0000Pelosis Visit To Taiwan Has Angered China | Jacob Shapiro
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Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Jack Farley for an impromptu bonus episode to cover how tensions in the South Pacific are rapidly ratcheting up. Shapiro explains the potential economic and geopolitical consequences of ongoing conflict between China and Taiwan, and he and Jack also dive deep into the Chinese real estate crisis.
Filmed on August 4, 2022.
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Thu, 04 Aug 2022 12:02:00 -0000Collapsing Liquidity Has Put The Commodity Supercycle on Hold | Tian Yang
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In the summer of 2020, there was no greater proponent of the commodity supercycle thesis - the idea that commodity prices would appreciate for many years in a secular fashion - than Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception. Since then, commodity prices - copper, oil, natural gas, you name it - have skyrocketed. Yet Yang now argues that the commodity supercycle is in intermission because economic growth is slowing rapidly and liquidity is collapsing as central banks rapidly tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation. Yang argues that long-term bonds (duration) will likely perform well in this environment. Yang also shares his view on the Fed, inflation, volatility, and the dollar.
Filmed on August 1, 2022.
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(00:00) Introduction
(05:45) Liquidity Is Collapsing
(10:04) How Quickly Will Inflation Fall?
(21:38) Is The Fed Put Gone?
(26:48) Recessions in Asia, Europe, and the U.S.
(31:14) Are Chinese Stocks A Buy?
(37:02) European Stocks
(38:50) Is The Dollar Rally Over?
(45:22) 1984 Historical Analogue
(51:40) Term Premium, Explained
(57:30) Confidence Levels About Future Inflation
(1:02:08) Potential Hedges
(1:07:44) Most Common Investor Mistake
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 01 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000Summer Meltdown In Stocks Unlikely, Says Volatility Expert Noel Smith
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Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noels prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out!
Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting).
Link to Noels first video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions
(07:09) Forward Volatility
(10:53) New Outlooks
(19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade
(22:00) Navigating High Environments
(27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio
(33:15) The Nature Of Money
(37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility
(44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors
(49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed
(54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market
(57:05) Short Squeezes
(1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies
(1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 28 Jul 2022 12:04:00 -0000The Most Misunderstood Asset Class Of All Time | Louis Camhi
On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Louis Camhi in this special episode all about SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which are basically empty shell companies that go public in order to buy another company. Recently, the performance of SPACs has been in the red because they've become a vehicle for speculation. But Louis argues that if you redeem the SPACs and get the money back, it's basically like a bond, pointing out the similarities and demystifying this often misunderstood asset class. You won't want to miss this!
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(12:43) What is a PIPE? (Private Investment Equity)
(15:10) What Is A SPAC Sponsor?
(28:34) Current Opportunity Set Within SPACs
(33:00) "Warrants Are The Truth"
(35:26) Shorting SPACs
(48:52) The Donlad Trump SPAC (DWAC)
(50:05) More Aggressive SPAC Strategies
(53:40) SPAC Arbitrage and Buy Writes
(56:10) Characteristics of SPAC Holders
(1:07:12) Where Is The Money Coming From?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 27 Jul 2022 13:53:00 -0000There Are No Doves Left At The Federal Reserve | Nick Timiraos
Ahead of tomorrows FOMC meeting, Nick Timiraos joins Jack Farley to talk about the economy and the Federal Reserve; how has it tightened financial conditions and what are they doing to combat the period of inflation we are currently facing? Timiraos breaks down the concept of Forward Guidance, and explains how to think about forthcoming rate hikes as well as the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT).
Timiraos is the Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage. He focuses on the economy and The Federal Reserve.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 25 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren
Nicholas Glinsman, CEO & CIO at EvoCapital LLC and Harald Malmgren, owner of Malmgren Global LLC, join Jack Farley to discuss the slowing economy: the causes, factors and leaders behind the market.
Do leaders like Powell want a recession? Malmgren seems to believe so even though they wouldn't admit to it. Entering a deep recession before midterm elections can be critical in helping kill inflation.
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:01) A Slowing Economy
(06:13) Why Is The Economy Slowing So Rapidly?
(10:38) Powell, Yellen, and Biden
(15:20) How High Will The Fed Hike?
(19:39) Liquidity and Volatility
(28:37) Reasons for Deglobalization
(36:05) The Crypto World
(37:59) Harald's View on Long Term Commodities
(42:18) China
(48:36) Centralization in Economic Growth
(51:59)China Is Running Out of Dollars
(57:48) The Dollar Milkshake
(1:08:05) President Biden's Legacy
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 21 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000Why Are Commodities Crashing? | Tracy Shuchart
Tracy Shuchart, Partner and Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Jack Farley to talk about all things oil: how different parts of the world are affected by price spikes, supply and demand and other commodities.
Why has the price of oil dropped? Looking at detailed charts, Shuchart goes over the oil market in countries such as Russia.
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:51) Looking at Extreme Oil Corrections
(04:25) Current State of the European Energy Markets
(06:00) Will Russia Turn Off Europe's Gas?
(11:36) Economic Slowdown Playing a Role in Destroying Demand
(14:09) Structural Supply Deficit
(16:25) Why Is the Price of Oil Collapsing
(23:00) Why are Corporations Making so Much Money?
(24:30) Comparing Profit Margins
(26:45) Tracy's View on Oil Equities and Sensitive Commodities
(31:40) The Shorter Term
(33:22) Commodities
(35:47) Market Currencies in the Eye of the Storm
(37:34) Thoughts on Natural Gas, Oil, and Other Disallates
(39:30) Coal
(41:03) Hedging Issues
(43:00) Overrated Equities Within Commodities
(48:35) Solar and Wind Stocks
(49:43) Stocks Affected by Inflation
(53:50) Recessions in the US and Europe
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 18 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000Making Informed Decisions as an Individual Investor | Kyrill Asatur
Kyrill Asatur, Co-Founder and CEO at Centerfin, joins Jack Farley to talk about stocks, macro and the .com bubble. Asatur explains how important the services Centerfin offers because they have exclusive access to funds that retail investors normally dont have.
What are some of the common behaviorial mistakes investors make? Working with institutional investors for almost 20 years, Asatur says individuals are prone to the same behaviors as retail investors.
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:36) Macro at Centerfin
(03:04) Decisions of an Individual Investor
(08:55) Kyrill's View on Macro and the Fed
(18:00) Stocks and the Dot Com Bubble
(22:41) Centerfin's Accessibility to Funds
(30:30) Distressed Bonds
(32:41) Thinking About Size
(38:45) Private Equity and Venture Capital
(41:55) Common Behaviorial Mistakes Investors Make
(44:46) What's Happening at Centerfin?
(47:21) Kyrill's View on Crypto
(53:36) Macro Hedge Funds
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 14 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000No Clear Sign Of Recession Yet, Says Nick Reece
Nick Reece, Vice President of Research at Merk Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the business cycle. He goes through a checklist of topics to dive deeper into including inflation, unemployment rates, mortgage rates and more.
Are we currently facing a recession? According to data that the Business Cycle Dating Committee uses, Reece seems to not believe so. But thats not to say that the US will not go through another recession at some point. Reece explains once job reports come out, we can determine economic projections.
Filmed on July 7, 2022.
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:35) Nick's Outlook of the Business Cycle
(11:13) Getting the Federal Reserve In Trouble
(18:18) Expectations on Gas and Inflation
(21:28) Unemployment and Inflation in the Cycle
(28:54) Bit.com Ad
(29:25) Recession on a Global Scale
(32:10) PMIs
(37:35) The Fed's Attempt to Combat Inflation
(45:20) Where Priorities are Placed at the Federal Reserve
(46:15) Projections for the Business Cycle
(49:17) Asset Allocation
(58:15) Looking at the Price to Earnings Ratio
(1:00:45) Looking at Liquidity
(1:04:58) Are We In A Recession?
(1:09:58) Investments Nick Is Excited About
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 11 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000Will A Recession End The Commodity Bull Market? | Rick Rule
Link to Rick Rules Symposium on Natural Resource Investing:https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/?affl=BlockWorks
Rick Rule, veteran natural resource investor and former CEO of Sprott Inc., an investment firm with over 20 Billion in assets under management, joins Jack to share his current outlook on the commodity complex as well as several lessons he has learned over the course of his career. Lesson #1: dont overstay your welcome. When the price of a stock is assuming a price for the commodity it produces that is higher than you think is sustainable, it might be time to ring the register.
Does the recent jittery price action mean a recession is in the cards? Perhaps so. But Rule still believes that underinvestment in production will make a durable commodity bull market very likely. Rule explains his outlook on natural gas, oil, copper, iron, and Uranium, and shares his opinion on several natural resource stocks from all around the globe.
Filmed on July 5, 2022.
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--
(00:00) Introduction
(01:29) Commodity Thesis
(04:20) Globally Synchronized Recession
(10:15) What Matters More - Supply Or Demand?
(14:52) Oil
(26:23) The Energy Crisis In Europe
(35:20) Natural Resource Symposium
(39:44) Greatest Lessons Learned
(48:53) Uranium
(55:00) Natural Gas
(57:07) Specific Stocks
(1:01:50) Canadian Oil Stocks
(1:04:58) Copper and Iron
(1:07:32) Hedging
(1:13:10) Gold
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 07 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski
Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as the silent depression. Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around.
--
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:30) The World's Third Depression
(14:25) Recession Trends
(16:08) Reasons For Current State of Depression
(24:25) Banker Greed
(30:28) Bit.com Ad
(31:00) Speculation During A Depression
(34:31) Inflation
(44:23) The Euro Dollar System
(51:20) Lending With the Euro Dollar System
(53:29) Federal Reserve's Role in the Economy
(1:06:19) Emil's Predictions for the Next 6 Months
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 04 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene
On today's episode of "Forward Guidance", Jack Farley is joined by Victoria Greene the Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth.
After a confusing year for many investors, Victoria joins the show to asses current market conditions. Reflecting on the past 10 years of stock market performance, Victoria describes why now is not a "buy the dip" scenario. After seeing exuberance in certain equities, Victoria explains why she is more interested in value equities as we undergo Fed tightening, recession risk and market liquidity issues. To hear Victoria's thoughts, you'll have to tune in!
--
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=-
(00:00) Introduction
(00:20) What is G Squared Private Wealth
(07:20) Shifting From Growth to Value In 2021
(11:42) Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Scenario
(17:44) Current Market Liquidity
(28:02) More Pain To Come For Unprofitable Technology Companies
(33:13) VC, Private Equity & SPACs
(40:50) Risk of Recession
(46:58) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stferle and Mark Valek
Ronald Stferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (the wolf) and a striking economic downturn (the bear) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world.
Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly.
--
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Referenced In The Show:
2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en
--
Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:28) Background
(06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble
(26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time
(40:45) Bit.com
(41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook
(54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook
(1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot?
(1:14:00) Counterparty Risk
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 27 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000In 6 to 12 Months, Were Going To Have A Big Problem | Eric Basmajian & Joseph Wang
Is a recession imminent? What will the impact be on asset prices - and to what degree would it cause the Federal Reserve to stop tightening monetary policy?
Today Jack welcomes Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, to answer these very important questions.
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Josephs writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/
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(00:00) Introduction
(02:00) Economic Growth Is Stalling
(05:00) What Is A Recession?
(07:22) The Fed's "Unconditional" Commitment To Fight Inflation
(09:20) Odds Of A Soft Landing
(17:36) Timeline of a Recession
(24:28) Fall Of The Commodity Complex
(32:13) Demographics and Inflation
(41:45) Bank Lending's Role In Inflation
(53:45) Conclusion
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard
In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now.
Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun.
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
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(00:00) Introduction
(04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections
(19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect
(24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating
(29:20) Looking at Economic Trends
(35:02) Bit.com Ad
(35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution
(40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs
(42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies
(46:50) Zombie Companies
(48:45) The Big Tech Companies
(53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year
(59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve
(1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors
(1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries
(1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades
(1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ
(1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market
(1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 20 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000Trading Volatility in Volatile Markets | Benn Eifert
In this episode of Forward Guidance Benn Eifert, Founder & CIO of QVR Advisors joins the show for a deep dive discussion on all things volatility. As markets are all down year to date, many investors have been surprised with the orderly selling and lack of increase in the VIX. Luckily we have Benn on the show to share the role of put options in this market, wether or not macro matters for volatility traders and volatility at both the single stock and index level.
We also discussed the past two years of stimulus induced retail options trading, how market structure has evolved, the best hedges for a slowly falling market and when we could expect a market bottom. To hear that, you'll have to tune in!
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:15) Background
(05:10) The Rise (And Fall?) Of Retails Options Traders
(08:50) Put Options' Role In This Year's Viscous Sell-Off
(13:57) The VIX
(19:29) The Pricing of Tail Risk
(24:32) Best Hedges For A Slowly Falling Market
(28:00) Single-Stock Volatility
(33:34) How Responsive Are Options Market Makers?
(39:58) Credit and Treasury Volatility
(48:11) Options Expiry ("OpEx")
(55:35) Common Options Mistakes
(1:01:00) The Macro
(1:05:50) Does The VIX Have To Spike In Order For Stocks To Bottom?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 18:30:00 -0000Market Crash Unlikely Until July, Says Volatility Veteran | Noel Smith
Noel Smith, chief investment officer and head of options trading at Convex Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance for a special time-sensitive episode to share an observation from the options markets that he thinks could exert some buying pressure over the next two weeks. Smith notes that, due to a large asset manager putting on a collar a while back, options market makers are long lots of gamma at the 3620 level on the S&P 500, and thus will be forced buyers on the way down as they strive to remain delta neutral. This dynamic will only become stronger until the very end of June, and the fireworks in the S&P 500 may not start until July.
Not investment advice. Filmed on June 16, 2022.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 17:45:00 -0000Cash Is King During Fed's Hawkish Warpath, Says Former $20 Billion Fund Manager
Alfonso Alf Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and former $20 Billion fund manager, joins Jack Farley to break down yesterdays action-packed Fed meeting, in which Fed Chair Jay Powell laid out the Feds revised framework for moderating the rampant inflation that has beset the U.S. economy. Alf tells Jack why the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed aims for requires a further fall in risk assets, and therefore he expects that cash will perform well. Filmed the morning of June 16, 2022.
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Alfonso Peccatiellos writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/
His most recent piece that he and Jack discuss can found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop?s=r#details
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The Feds June statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220615a1.pdf
The Feds Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf
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(00:00) FOMC Overview
(06:30) Powell - Good Cop or Bad Cop?
(09:40) Inflation Expectations and Terminal Rate
(12:25)Leverage and VaR Shock
(17:08) Can The Fed Actually Control Inflation?
(23:13) The Impact Of Higher Rates On Portfolio Allocation
(29:37) What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio?
(41:43) The Fed's Real Yield Paradigm Shift
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000Soft Landing Very Unlikely As Global Inflation Crisis Rages On | Darius Dale & Juliette Declercq
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by two phenoms of macro analysis: Juliette Declercq of JDI Research and Darius Dale of 42Macro. The two explore the likelihood of the Feds much-desired soft landing, a scenario in which inflation moderates without a severe hit to economic growth or asset prices.
Both Declercq and Dale argue that a soft landing is unlikely and that a fall in inflation will likely require not only a steep selloff in stocks but also a nosedive in economic growth that could amount to a recession. The trio also discuss the natural rate of interest (R*), financial repression, and demand destruction.
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:45) The Most Confusing Times In Macro?
(04:30) How Far Can The Fed Go In Tightening Monetary Policy?
(10:35) Odds Of A Soft Landing
(21:02) What Will It Take To Break Inflation?
(26:20) Bit.com Ad
(26:52) The End Of Free Money
(29:54) Europe
(34:14) Shorting Equities
(38:00) "The Scariest Chart in Macro"
(44:07) Asset Allocation
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 18:30:00 -0000The Bear Market Is Here, What Next? | Joseph Wang & Alfonso Peccatiello
With stocks, crypto, bonds, gold, and commodities tanking, Jack calls an emergency podcast and asks trusted Forward Guidance regulars, Joseph Wang and Alfonso Peccatiello, to put the ongoing market volatility in the context of runaway inflation and central bank tightening. Filmed live on June 13, 2022.
Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf
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Subscribe to Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/
Subscribe to The Macro Compass: TheMacroCompass.substack.com
Joseph's latest piece, "Turbo Tightening," can be found here: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/
Alfs latest piece, The True Reason Why Central Banks Do QE, can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/portfolio-rebalancing-qe?s=r#details
Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000Liquidity Has Fallen Off A Cliff | Joseph Wang & Michael Howell
In this episode of Forward Guidance, fan favourites Michael Howell and Joseph Wang pair up to discuss the overarching theme of liquidity and the Fed. After sounding the alarm and forecasting a decline in equity markets towards the end of 2021, those predictions are now beginning to manifest in markets.
Michael walks listeners through how he tracks market liquidity as a leading indicator for equity prices. Joseph provides an in depth look at the signals driving the Fed in this environment. Both guests share their thoughts on the Powell pivot myth, volatility, signs of stagflation, QT and so much more.
This episode is jam packed with insights you can't afford to miss, but to hear them, you'll have to tune in!
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Subscribe To Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:28) What Is Liquidity?
(09:10) Declining Refinancing Capacity
(13:46) Bagehot's Rule and The Discount Window
(24:50) Is This Unprecedented?
(28:35) Is Waiting For A Powell Pivot Futile?
(30:16) The Fed And The VIX
(33:16) Inflation and Recession
(36:24) How Much QT Can The Fed Actually Do?
(39:20) Gold and Crypto
(41:17) The U.S. Dollar's Role
(45:17) The People's Bank of China
(46:43) How Much Power Does the Fed Actually Have?
(49:12) The Commercial Banking System
(53:33) Where Are Long-Duration Bond Yields Headed?
(1:02:28) Yield Curve Interpretations
(1:07:08) Is There A Problem Lurking In Credit?
(1:09:03) "Good Liquidity" vs. "Bad Liquidity"
(1:12:55) China
(1:18:10) Closing Thoughts On The Market
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Fed Is Burning Money | Harley Bassman
Today Jack is joined by none other than the Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman, who shares why he is wildly bullish on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) even as the Federal Reserve is in the process of reducing its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT).
Bassman explains why long-term interest rates have shot up by so much and makes the case that, while he is confident that inflation will continue to run hot, the sell-off in long-duration Treasurys may not continue. Bassman goes on to explain the significance of the spike in interest rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index, his creation, and shares several investment theses on municipal bonds and equity LEAPs. Filmed on Friday, June 3, 2022.
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
Referenced In The Show:
The Water Is Warm In The MBS Pool: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Convexity-Maven-MBS-Pool.pdf
Fire Insurance - Revisited:
https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Convexity-Maven-Fire-Insurance-Revisited.pdf
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:18) Historic Bond Sell-Off
(09:48) Credit Vol
(17:14) Is There A Powell Put On Credit?
(21:56) Is Quantitative Tightening (QT) Money Burning?
(25:05) Bit.com Ad
(33:49) Yield Curve Inversion
(41:26) Outlook on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)
(44:59) Pre-Payment and Extension Risk
(51:42) Will MBS Convexity Humble the Fed?
(1:00:08) Bassman's Highest Conviction View
(1:03:38) Municipal Bonds
(1:04:42) Longer-Dated Calls on Equity Indices
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 06 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000Inflation Is Popping The Biggest Asset Bubble Of All Time | Michael Kao
Today Jack welcomes Michael Kao, retired hedged manager and private investor, on Forward Guidance for a wide-ranging conversation on liquidity, energy markets, cryptocurrency, and convertible bond arbitrage.
Kao argues that risk assets have benefited from a liquidity lottery of quantitative easing and low rates, and that as a result financial markets are in a huge bubble that reminds him of the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. Kao explains why he is skeptical about the value of digital assets, and he does a deep dive into the capital structure of MicroStrategy ($MSTR). Important disclosure: Kao recently entered a short position in $MSTR.
Kao is a veteran investor with a wealth of expertise in options pricing, commodity trading, convertible bond arbitrage, and global macro. He has over three decades of investing experience at Goldman Sachs, Canyon Capital Advisors, as well as Akanthos Capital Management, his own hedge fund. Nothing in this podcast should be considered as investment advice.
Filmed on June 2, 2022.
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Follow Michael Kao on Twitter:https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy
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To get in touch with Jack Farley about sponsoring Forward Guidance, emailjack@blockworks.co.
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:46) Michael Kao's Background
(08:30) The New Dotcom Bubble 2.0
(22:50) The Rho Hedge War Story From 2008
(29:16) Will The Fed Pivot? Can The Fed Pivot?
(34:45) MMT
(42:05) The Energy Crisis
(49:16) The Black Swan For American Oil
(59:09) Speculative Bubbles As Inflation Capacitors
(1:02:12) How Do You Value Crypto?
(1:10:05) Housing Bubble?
(1:11:14) Will QT Steepen The Yield Curve?
(1:14:38) Digital Assets
(1:18:00) How MicroStrategy Funds Its Bitcoin Purchases
(1:28:58) "He's Not In Trouble Right Now"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000Fed Hawkishness Is A Charade - If Powell Doesnt Pivot, Prepare For A Depression | Larry McDonald
Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of A Colossal Failure Of Common Sense, thinks that those who take the Federal Reserve at its word are making a serious error. McDonald wastes little time to argue that the Federal Reserves assurances that it will tighten monetary policy (by raising rates and reducing its balance sheet) amount to little more than a sham: a series of promises that it can never keep, because doing so would plunge the United States into a deep recession.
McDonald explains that, while he does not expect the S&P 500 to reach a new high for several years, he is anticipating a sharp rally in risk assets as the Federal Reserve tones down its hawkish rhetoric and abandons the most extreme of its measures to moderate inflation. McDonald argues that this supportive liquidity environment will drag the U.S. Dollar down and give an even greater lift to the ongoing bull market in energy as well as other hard assets such as gold.
Filmed on May 31, 2022.
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Larry McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/larry_macdonald
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Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:50) Can The Fed Reduce Its Balance Sheet?
(04:36) The Fed's Choice Between Stagflation and a Recession
(09:39) How High Can The Fed Get?
(19:27) Dot-com Bubble 2.0?
(24:23) Outlook on S&P 500
(27:25) Bit.Com
(27:55) The Energy Trade
(31:44) Have We Reached Full Panic Mode Yet?
(34:45) Commercial Real Estate
(36:52) Shorting The U.S. Dollar
(41:27) Inflation and Deglobalization
(45:08) ESG Investing
(49:25) Global Recession
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 30 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000Energy Stocks Remain Undervalued, Says Worlds Best Performing Hedge Fund Manager | Josh Young
Josh Young is the founder and chief investment officer of Bison Interests, an energy investment fund whose returns since October 2020 are ranked #1 in the HFM database. Young argues that, despite the phenomenal performance of the energy sector over the past 18 months, there are upstream producers that remain extremely undervalued relative to their current cash flows.
Young explains why he thinks many of the major oil companies are burning capital and why he prefers smaller producers that are not on the radar of many investors flooding into the space. He shares his views on ESG, divestment, and the idea of a carbon bubble.
This conversation is not investment advice.
Filmed on May 27, 2022.
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Todays episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please.
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:10) Background
(01:01) Supply Constraints
(21:38) Is Energy Investing Just A Bet On The Price Of Oil?
(33:04) Risks To The Energy Trade
(56:14) Company-Specific Analysis
(1:17:14) Is There A Carbon Bubble?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 26 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000Europe and China: Already In Recession | Paul Hodges
Paul Hodges returns in a deep discussion on inflation, China, and the Federal Reserve. Paul joins Jack Farley to discuss recession and recession risk in Europe, China, and the U.S., as well as the fate of inflated hyper-growth stocks.
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Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1
Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
(00:00) Introduction
(13:45) Why Is Inflation Bad For Stocks?
(21:24) Fate of Hyper-Growth Tech Stocks
(23:15) Tesla
(27:23) Ben Graham's Valuation Rules
(30:03) Bit.com Ad
(30:34) Recession In Europe
(42:39) Recession Risk in the U.S.
(46:10) Housing
(49:05) The Federal Reserve
(52:14) Chemicals Market Flashing Warning Signals
(56:00) Recession in China
(1:07:07) Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 25 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000Central Banks Are Scrambling To Contain An Inflationary Wage Price Spiral | Nick Glinsman & Joseph Wang
Nick Glinsman, macro hedge fund manager and author at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) and Jack Farley to explore whether the Federal Reserve is at all disturbed by the vicious sell-off in risk assets, or if the carnage in equities and credit is actually in service of its mandate to control stable prices.
Glinsman argues that the global economy is on the verge of a wage-price spiral for the first time in four decades, and the central bankers will be in no hurry to reverse course on their hawkish policy. Taking from his extensive experience working at some of the worlds most successful hedge funds, Glinsman warns viewers not to slip on a banana skin as they navigate the macro landscape. Joseph Wangs message to the viewers banking on a Powell Put is even more stark: wake the ____ up.
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Nick Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman
Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Nick Glinsman's writings can be found at https://intelligencequarterly.com/.
Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/.
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Todays episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please.
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(00:00) Introduction
(02:40) Banana Skins In This Market
(13:14) The Fall Of The "Transitory" Narrative
(23:30) The Wealth Effect in Reverse
(30:50) Ad
(36:07) Have Central Banks Lost Control?
(41:18) The Dollar and Bonds
(50:28) Bretton Woods III
(59:55) Inflationary Hikes
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 24 May 2022 19:30:00 -0000The Fed's $3 Trillion Problem | Maroon Macro & Joseph Wang
Joseph Wang & Maroon Macro join me for a deep dive into the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's $3 Trillion problem. As t bill issuance dries up, reverse repo's spike & money market funds park their assets elsewhere, how will the Fed's quantitive tightening program and rate hikes effect the plumbing of the global financial system?
Luckily I have two monetary plumbing experts to answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
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Follow Maroon: https://twitter.com/Maroon_Macro
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 19 May 2022 12:00:00 -0000Can Gold Withstand the Liquidity Drain? | Sean Fielder
Sean Fielder, chief investment officer at Equinox Partners, joins Jack Farley to discuss his views on gold, mining, inflation, the and Federal Reserves continued tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks, diving into everything from ESG investing to a mine's lifecycle and lifestyle.
__
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
(00:00) Intro
(02:26) Emerging Markets And The Dollar
(15:32) New Bretton Woods
(17:19) How Far Can The Fed Go?
(19:07) Is Gold An Inflation Hedge?
(26:36) Bit.com Ad
(27:06) Energy, Oil & Gas
(39:44) ESG Investing (Environmental, Societal, and Governance)
(46:08) Junior Gold Miners
(53:16) Common Problems That Junior Gold Mining Companies Have
(55:56) Jurisdictional Risk
(1:05:05) Lifecycle Of A Mine
(1:06:26) The Future Of Gold
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 16 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000Why Fed Chair Powell is NOT Coming To Rescue Stocks | Alfonso Peccatiello
On today's episode of "Forward Guidance," Jack Farley is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass newsletter and host of The Macro Trading Floor podcast on the Blockworks network. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book.
Alfonso joins Jack to share his outlook on the Feds efforts to tighten financial conditions in the hope of reining in inflation. Will these efforts crush the stock market? Will the Fed get its much-desired soft landing? Are there emerging signs of stress in credit spreads? In Alfonso's mind, one thing is for sure, Powell will NOT pivot this time. Monetary policy will be tightened until inflation is under control, Alfonso argues, and those investors relying on a Powell Pivot will be left holding the bag.
Alfonsos writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/, here are some of the specific pieces he and Jack referenced:
What If?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/what-if?s=r
A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/serious-ish-about-inflation?s=r
Alfonso Peccatiello on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf
Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:33) Tightening Financial Conditions
(08:17) The Macro Compass Quadrant Model
(12:08) Stock Market Time Horizons
(15:44) Shorting The S&P 500
(19:17) BCB Ad
(20:06) Surging High Yield Bonds in Europe
(22:53) Credit Spreads
(29:43) Powell Is NOT Going to Pivot
(35:42) Will the Fed Get Their Soft Landing?
(38:58) When Will Bonds Become a Buy?
(47:08) Changing Your Minds in Markets
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 12 May 2022 13:00:00 -0000The Everything Risk Is Here | Ed Harrison
Ed Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of The Everything Risk, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserves ongoing tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks. Harrison shares his outlook on China, commodities, the FAANG stocks, and why he sees the makings for a new era for markets.
__
Follow Ed Harrison on Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardnh
Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
--
Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
(00:00) Introduction
(02:36) Is The Era of East Money Over?
(04:56) Comparisons to the 2000s Tech Album
(13:30) Valuing Companies With Network Effects
(16:23) Markets Reaction To Monetary Policy
(18:46) ARKK
(22:25) Fed Rate Hikes & Credit Markets
(27:26) Where Is The Fed Put?
(31:53) Bit.com Ad
(32:25) A Shift From Deflation to Inflation?
(37:31) FANTAMAN Stocks
(40:28) How China is Exporting Stagflation
(41:55) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine & The Effect On Energy Markets
(46:19) Will High Energy Prices Cause Demand Destruction?
(50:05) 5YR Breakeven Inflation
(51:40) Inflation in Europe
(52:58) The Global Dollar Wrecking Ball
(56:06) Final Thoughts
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 09 May 2022 15:00:00 -0000Its Game Over For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynchs Protg
George Noble has seen many bubbles in his storied career: the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the Dotcom Bubble of 2000, and the Japanese mega-bubble which he rode on the way up and down. But no prior period of speculation compares to what Noble sees now: a mega bubble of epic proportions, fueled primarily by a wave of central bank liquidity that has taken non-profitable technology stocks to previously unimaginable heights.
Noble argues that inflation has been popping this bubble and that equities are toast and that goldilocks is dead. Noble sees overvaluation problems not only in the ARKK stocks but also darlings of the S&P 500 such as Amazon, Apple, and Netflix.
As a warning to viewers, Noble shares words from the legendary investor Peter Lynch (his mentor): know what you own.
George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79
Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
--
BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
--
Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(00:51) Background
(06:55) The Everything Bubble
(13:36) The Powell Pivot
(20:58) ARKK
(25:43) BCB Ad
(26:32) Inflation Is Popping The Bubble In Long-Duration Assets
(39:50) Are Bonds A Hedge For Stock Sell-offs? (Answer: No)
(41:12) How Low Can Stocks Go?
(43:22) Netflix and Amazon
(50:10) "Peter Lynch Would Not Be Buying Apple Right Now"
(52:50) Energy
(59:30) Crypto
(1:02:50) Noble's Twitter Spaces
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 May 2022 13:00:00 -0000The Food & Energy Crisis Has Only Just Begun | Doomberg
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by the mysterious green chicken known only as Doomberg, a research publication on energy, food, and fertilizer.
Doomberg argues that the ongoing surge in oil and natural gas prices is due to key policy errors that, if they continue, will ensure that price shock will turn into a full-blown energy and food crisis that will push many countries to the brink of recession, particularly Europe and frontier market nations.
Doomberg breaks down the frightening dependence of Europe on Russian energy and explains how, in the case of Germany, a rejection of nuclear power by so-called environmentalists led to its embrace of coal.
--
Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT
Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe to Doomberg https://doomberg.substack.com/
Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
--
Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI (edited)
--
(00:00) Intro
(00:33) The Start of Doomberg
(05:27) Core Energy Thesis
(12:00) How Germany's Rejection of Nuclear Led To Its Embrace Of Coal
(14:32) The Weaponization of Russia's Natural Gas
(19:40) Europe's Dependence on Russian Energy
(34:00) Bit.com Ad
(34:30) Nuclear Power
(39:20) Farmers On The Brink
(47:30) Oil
(54:57) Renewables
(01:08:36) Questions From Audience
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000Fed Chair Powell Says Goodbye To Era Of Easy Money | Jim Bianco & Joseph Wang
Follow Jim Bianco https://twitter.com/biancoresearch
Follow Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
Follow Jack Farley https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Timestamps:
(00:00) Opening Thoughts
(08:05) Powell's "Codewords"
(15:10) The Balance Sheet: Stock vs. Flow
(22:10) Is The Fed No Longer Credible?
(27:32) When Is Inflation Going to Peak?
(47:15) Worst Bond Market Sell-Off Since George Washington Became President
(51:30) Systemic Risks For The Financial Systems
(53:00) Are Rate Hikes Good for Commercial Banks?
(1:01:04) How Far Can The Fed Go?
Mon, 02 May 2022 20:35:21 -0000A Dilemma Of The Feds Own Making | Danielle DiMartino Booth & Joseph Wang
Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder and CEO of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley and former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang to share her outlook on this weeks FOMC meeting. Booth argues that the Federal Reserves lateness to fight inflation has caused it to lose a lot more credibility, and makes the case that it risks to lose even more credibility if it fails to recognize that the economy is slowing rapidly. Booth notes that credit spreads are widening rapidly and argues that it will be a credit market blow-up, not an equity market drawdown, that forces the Federal Reserve to change course. Wang and Booth discuss how rising mortgage rates will deter the Fed from shrinking its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and they each give their take on the continued sell-off in Treasury bonds.Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter @DiMartinoBooth
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter @FedGuy12
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96
--
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter athttps://blockworks.co/newsletter
Fri, 29 Apr 2022 20:06:12 -0000Why The Repo Market Will Need The Feds Cash Yet Again | Scott Skyrm & Joseph Wang
Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income & repo at Curvature Securities, joins former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and host Jack Farley to share his insights from deep within the repo markets. Skyrm explores whether the Feds forthcoming balance sheet runoff will agitate repo markets like last time in September 2019, when repo rates spiked higher. Skyrm (@ScottSkyrm) and Wang (@FedGuy12) weigh important considerations, such as the Feds involvement with the market and what current repo rates indicate about the level of bond shorting.
Skyrm tells Farley (@JackFarley96) that the trillions of Treasury collateral that the market will have to absorb over the next year will drain the ~$1.8 Trillion in Feds reverse repo facility, yank repo rates higher, and eventually cause the market to rely once again on the Feds standing repo facility.
--
BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
Thu, 28 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Short Everything Trade | Teddy Vallee
Jacks next guest is someone who has timed this cycle better than literally anyone he knows in macro.
Since the beginning of the year, the elusive Teddy Vallee has been short almost everything, stocks but in particular U.S. government bonds, which are in the midst of their most vicious sell-off in almost 40 years. But very recently, Teddy has closed his short in government bonds and has actually entered a massive long position in Treausurys. Teddy tells Farley why he expects growth and inflation to slow rapidly as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy.
A note on the title: up until very recently, Vallee had the everything short (short stocks and bonds) on. But now that he is long bonds, he no longer does.
Filmed on Tuesday, April 26.
--
Follow Teddy Vallee on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com.
Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:51) Teddy's Successful Bond Short in Early 2022
(04:20) Teddy's Successful Equity Short in Early 2022
(05:43) The Economy Is Slowing Rapidly
(07:58) The Fed's Key Error
(11:05) Chinese Lockdowns Destroying Economic Growth
(16:06) Going From Short to Long The Bond Market
(23:33) What If The Fed Remains Hawkish
(26:14) Bit.com Ad
(26:46) Oil & Bretton Woods 3
(28:46) Confidence Levels Of Long Bond Trade
(30:12) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Bond Yields
(38:35) When Will Powell Pivot?
(41:30) Gold
(42:25) Crypto
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Mon, 25 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000Can Europe's Economy Handle Russian Sanctions? | Frances Coppola
Frances Coppola, Economist, Author & banking expert, joins Forward Guidance to give an update on how the West's new sanctions on Russia are playing out. Coppola explains how key commodities such as Russian natural gas and oil continue to flow to Western countries, and she makes an impassioned case for why a ban on Russian energy is necessary to thwart the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
--
Follow Frances Coppola on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:58) Overview of Sanctions on Russia
(07:08) Oil & Natural Gas
(09:30) Wheat
(14:20) Demand Destruction and Recession Risk
(18:00) When Will We Hit Peak Inflation?
(21:20) Central Bank Response Function
(27:01) The European Central Bank (ECB) And Inflation
(32:02) BCB Ad
(35:45) The Dollar's Surge
(1:20:36) Breton Woods III
Thu, 21 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000Expect a 30% Correction in Stocks, Says Godfather Of Global Liquidity | Michael Howell
Liquidity is a critical concept in markets that many may have heard, but few truly understand. Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the global liquidity flows. He breaks down what liquidity is and he explains to Jack Farley how the tide of liquidity that has lifted asset prices over the past two years is reversing very quickly.
Howell argues that, since 95% of central banks are tightening at the same time, the short-term risk/reward for stocks is poor, and he thinks a further 20% correction is ahead for the equity market. Howell explains the complex yield curve dynamics, and explains why the ongoing liquidity collapse might finally make long-term government bonds attractive once again.
Filmed on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. A note on the title: Howells expectation of a 30% in stocks is from peak-to-trough, and since equities are down nearly 10% already, that would equate to a further fall of 20% from current levels (not 30% from current levels).
_
Follow Cross Border Capital on Twitter @crossbordercap
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks
_____
Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com.
Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
--
Timestamps
--
(00:00) Introduction
(00:45) What Is Liquidity?
(10:59) The Turbulence Zone
(21:06) What Will Be The First To Break?
(23:58) Why Are Stocks And Credit Still So Richly Priced?
(26:35) But What About Inflation?
(32:24) Bit.com Ad
(43:32) Can China Save the Day?
(47:05) Why Falling Liquidity Causes A Dollar Squeeze
(50:33) How High Oil Prices Further Deteriorate Liquidity
(53:04) History of Global Liquidity
(56:28) Capital Wars and Bretton Woods III
(1:08:25) Is The Yield Curve Signaling A Recession?
(1:09:56) How Far Will The Fed Get With QT? (Bagehot's Dictum)
Wed, 20 Apr 2022 12:56:47 -0000Commercial Banks Taper Treasury Purchases | Joseph Wang & DC Analyst
DC Analyst joins Joseph Wang and Jack Farley for a discussion about commercial banks, treasuries, and bearishness on banks.
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DC on Twitter: @AnalystDC
Joseph Wang on Twitter: @FedGuy12
Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
--
Links
___
Liberty Street Economics, "The Feds Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility":
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/04/the-feds-balance-sheet-runoff-and-the-on-rrp-facility/
Bullard's Triple Rate Hike Comment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/last-resort-fed-hike-enters-debate-as-bullard-invokes-1994-move
DC's substack: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-15?s=r
Joseph Wang's writings: https://fedguy.com/draining-the-rrp/
--
(00:00) Introduction To DC Analyst
(02:01) Why Are Banks Buying Fewer Treasuries?
(14:30) Implosion Of The Japanese Yen
(20:40) Who Will Buy The Treasuries?
(31:20) What If Banks Don't Lend More?
(37:30) Bearish For Banks? (No)
(42:47) Quantitative Tightening - Will The Fed Be Forced to Sell?
(46:57) Mortgage-Backed Securities
(57:40) Bullard's Comments on Triple-Hike
Mon, 18 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000Think Rising Rates Are Good For Banks? Think Again!
An oft-cited fact is that rising rates support the profitability of the commercial banking system. Chris Whalen, veteran banker, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors & Author of The Institutional Risk Analyst begs to differ. Whalen explains to Farley that banks make money by the spread between their yield on their loans and their cost of funds, and that while rising rates do increase loan yields, they also increase banks cost of funds. Whalen also explains why he thinks the Federal Reserve will be unable to do Quantitative Tightening because it will be stuck with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for many years.
--
BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(12:35) Inflation
(18:13) The Problem The Fed Faces with Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)
(21:08) Can the Federal Reserve Become Insolvent?
(24:57) Mortgage Lending At Commercial Banks27
(27:32) BCB Ad
(28:20) Are Rising Rates Good For Banks?
(31:54) Why A Recession Is Likely?
(34:51) Outlook on Bank Stocks and U.S. Treasuries
(44:00) Biggest Risk: Non-Bank Lenders
(48:31) Credit Card Lending
(51:16) Will Banks Suffer Losses from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine?
(54:40) European Banks
(58:35) Jack's Post-Conversation Explanation
Thu, 14 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000Slaying the Inflation Dragon | Jurrien Timmer
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, joins Forward Guidance to explain his outlook of the current macro environment marked by slowing rates of growth and inflation coming down from high levels as central banks scramble to tighten monetary conditions. Timmer notes that while risk-free rates (as measured by Treasury yields) have risen sharply, risk premia as measured by credit spreads - and, in particular, the earnings yield of stocks - have barely budged.
Timmer shares his outlook on bonds, commodities, equities at this point in the economic cycle, and he explains his long-term bull case for Bitcoin, as well as why one of his models indicates gold is severely undervalued (not investment advice). Nothing Timmer or Farley say is investment advice.Follow Jurrien
Timmer on Twitter @TimmerFidelity
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks
_____
Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com.
Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
--
(00:00) Introduction
(06:08) Where Are We In The Cycle Now?
(12:40) Slaying The Inflation Dragon
(21:29) The Stock Market
(30:22) Bit.com Ad
(31:00) Commodities
(36:25) Gold
(44:24) Will The Fed Reverse on Quantitative Tightening (QT)?
(56:48) Japanification & Yield Curve Control
(1:06:18) Bitcoin
Wed, 13 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000Inflation Forces The Fed's Hand | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves
Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and George Goncalves to discuss the bond market, plumbing, inflation & more.
--
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
Follow George Goncalves @bondstrategist
Follow @Blockworks_
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 10 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000Birth of the U.S. Dollar | Roger Lowenstein
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Roger Lowenstein to discuss his new books and the intricacies of the American financial institution during and before the Civil War. Taking a look back at history, Roger is able to make connections to our modern day and how we can empower ourselves by knowing our backstory.
--
BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
--
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
--
Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(02:27) American Finance Before the Civil War
(06:46) How Did the North Fund the Civil War?
(15:25) How the South Funded The Civil War?
(18:56) Disastrous Inflation In The South
(24:02) BCB Ad
(25:25) Illegal Cotton Smuggling And Parallels To Russian Gas
(34:20) Will Commodity Price Shock Cause A Recession?
(37:36) Inflation
(42:28) The Fed
(47:03) Final Reflection on President Lincoln
Thu, 07 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000Bullish Commodities? Not So Fast | Lukas Kuemmerle
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Lukas Kuemmerle joins Jack Farley to talk his commodity plan and interests in 2022. As someone interested not only in the strategy, but background of commodities, Lukas provides a comprehensive explanation of each of his commodity interests, discusses the current situation in Germany, and makes a case for his bullishness on Bitcoin.
--
(00:00) Introduction
(02:05) Background and Framework
(05:01) Commodity Overview
(11:00) Oil & Natural Gas
(23:54) Inflation Amid Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
(26:15) Why Lukas Got Short-Term Skeptical of Commodity Prices In March
(31:07) Backwardation & Contango
(34:30) Bearish On Soybeans
(39:26) Wheat
(41:08) Shipping
(46:08) Bearish Copper
(48:50) Dollar Strength
(50:32) Germany
(55:40) Bitcoin
Wed, 06 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000Zoltan Pozsar Calls For Bretton Woods III | Joseph Wang
Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang to discuss Zoltan Pozsar's recent Global Money Dispatch titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'.
Read Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III here: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V
--
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
Follow @Blockworks_
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 03 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000Inflationary Recession Is On The Horizon | Paul Hodges
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle.
Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle.
--
BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.
--
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021
(03:57) Forecasting A Recession
(08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation
(14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe
(16:42) Oil Market Outlook
(19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy
(25:12) BCB Group Ad
(26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy?
(39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil
(41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World
(57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market
(1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & Beyond
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000When Volatility Strikes, Watch Out! | Kris Sidial
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020. After noticing how the micro structure of markets had changed due to passive investing, buy side flows, primary dealer hedging post 2008 & ever increasing amounts of QE by the Fed, Kris founded Ambrus Group to take advantage of periods of increased volatility.
Kris takes us all the back to March 2020, discussing the market mechanics which led to such a rapid sell-off. Now in 2022, as markets face increasingly uncertain headlines & the Fed begins tightening, Kris gives his outlook for 2022, sharing his key indicators to look out for, to avoid your portfolio being hit by volmageddon 2.0.
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Follow Follow Kris Sidial: @Ksidiii
Follow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_
Barclays' VXX price jump drives double-digit gains for volatility arbitrage fund: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/barclays-vxx-price-jump-drives-double-digit-gains-volatility-arbitrage-fund-2022-03-16/
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Sun, 27 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000Nothing Destroys Inflation Like a Recession | Darius Dale
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes returning guest, Darius Dale of 42Macro. Darius sits down to discuss the current macro environment from recession warning signals on the horizon, stock & bond correlations during market sell-off's, the outlook for commodities in this environment, ARKK & other high beta assets and the mechanics driving inflation & the yield curve.
42Macro website: https://42macro.com/
Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale
Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
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BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.
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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 24 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000Will Janet Yellen Pull the Trigger? | Andy Constan
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Andy Constan joins Jack to discuss the latest in financial news, reflecting on the Fed while discussing topics like market plumbing, roll-downs, and more. Andy Constan injects his absolute expertise of the subject matter into this interview-- you won't want to miss it.
Follow Andy Constan @dampedspring
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
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Tue, 22 Mar 2022 20:31:01 -0000The Fed's Forward Guidance Is No More | with Nick Timiraos
Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Nick Timiraos to discuss the Fed, forward guidance, and what the recent news all means for both.
Follow Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos
Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
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Sun, 20 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000Short Selling in the Age of Fraud | Carson Block
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Carson Block, Investor & Founder of Muddy Waters Research. Known for his role in activist short selling, Carson shares how he began his career in investing, what led him to being an activist short seller & reflects on the past two years of markets in the face of reckless monetary policy.
Carson goes on to share the hows and whys of short selling, techniques for identifying fraudulent companies, differences between short selling in China vs the U.S, the role of activist short selling in markets and much more.
Carson Block on Twitter @muddywatersre
Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_
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BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.
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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 17 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000Options Trading for Macro Investors | Imran Lakha
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, class is back in session with Imran Lakha as the attending professor. Going through the basics of options, Lakha turns his attentions not only to the absolute fundamentals, but to the whys and hows of options, explaining their use, what can affect them, and when and where they should not be used. Not only is this a perfunctory lesson in options but a deeper dive into their function into the economic world for beginners and masters alike of the macro trade.
Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight
Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Wed, 16 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000The Bond Market Has Spoken. Should Investors Listen? | Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman
The yield curve has flattened dramatically - should investors be worried as the curve is very close to inverting? Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman are on the case.
Follow Harley Bassman @ConvexityMaven
Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow @Blockworks_
Bassman's most recent piece: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Convexity-Maven-Dangerous-Curves-Ahead.pdf
Wang's most recent piece: https://fedguy.com/breaking-the-system/
Sun, 13 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000Fed Faces "Debt Death Spiral" While Inflation Soars | Luke Gromen & Jim Bianco
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Luke Gromen, Founder of FFTT to discuss the situation the Fed finds itself in the face of the highest inflation in 40 years.
With a debt to GDP over 100%, is the Fed trapped and inflation the only way out? Luke discusses the post 1971 Nixon shock's effect on the Dollar and walks us through the series of events which led to the Fed now being faced with, a "debt death spiral".
Jim explains how inflation is President Biden's biggest problem and what this means for rate hikes ahead of FOMC. Are there signs of a recession in the U.S economy as commodities soar, the 2s 10s yield curve spread tightens & OIS spreads turn negative?
Jim & Luke provide an absolute macro power hour you CAN'T afford to miss. To hear their thoughts on commodities, stress in the treasury market, effect of Russia & Ukraine conflict, sanctions speeding up the trend of de-dollarization & the death of globilazation, you're just going to have to tune in to find out.
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BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.
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Thu, 10 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000Gold to $10,000 in The Big Reset | Willem Middelkoop
Willem Middelkoop, Founder & Chief Investment Officer of the Dutch-based Commodity Discovery Fund joins Forward Guidance to asses the macro forces driving commodity markets. What effect will war in Ukraine have on wheat, natural gas & oil prices around the globe? Willem goes on to discuss his book from 2014 titled 'The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame' and how current events are shaping a monetary reset.
Willem also describes the famous 1971 Nixon shock, what a gold revaluation would look like, how sanctions could effect commodity markets, the roadmap to a $1 Million Bitcoin & how investors can navigate these volatile markets.
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Willem Middelkoop on Twitter @wmiddelkoop
Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Tue, 08 Mar 2022 23:05:00 -0000Does The Fed Control The Dollar? | Jeff Snider & Joseph Wang
Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Jeff Snider to discuss the Fed's control of the dollar and recent news surrounding the dollar's weight and worth.
Follow Jeff Snider @JeffSnider_AIP
Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
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Sun, 06 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcome Juliette Declercq to a thorough investigation into what's driving our economy and how it gets hurt. With her expertise and personal knowledge of the situation, Juliette and Jack analyse the market, looking at specific commodities and tracking trends showing up in our everyday.
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BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
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Fri, 04 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000Kharkiv Under Siege Yet Russian Oil Still Flows | Jacob Shapiro
Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the latest news and finds regarding the turmoil between Russia and Ukraine.
Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives
Follow Lykeion @thelykeion
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Thu, 03 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000The Central Bank Of Russia Is On The Defensive with Joseph Wang & Frances Coppola
Frances Coppola and Joseph Wang break down the true implications and mechanics of sanctions against Russia.
Key learnings include:
1) SWIFT isn't a payment rail, it's a messaging system.
2) The sanctions on Russian commercial banks don't go into effect until March 26 and contain many loopholes
3) The sanctions on the Russia's Central Bank were declared by governments but *require* action from Fed + ECB
4) The U.S. Treasury provided Russian commercial banks with a diagram teaching them how to circumvent its own policy
Follow Frances Coppola @Frances_Coppola
Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12
Follow @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 16:00:00 -0000How Passive HODL-ing Of Stocks Leads to Extreme Crashes | Mike Green
Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the market turmoil that has caught investors off guard so early on in 2022. Green tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rotation from growth stocks to the so-called inflation-trades (energy, industrial, and commodity stocks, for example), might have gotten ahead of itself.
Green examines the mechanics of how passive flows distort price discovery and cause tendencies for the market to drift steadily higher while also raising the risk of extreme downward price movements. He explains how options overlays can take advantage of this environment and discusses his decision to bring those products to investors in an ETF wrapper. Green also discusses Simplifys new credit hedge ETFs, AGGH and CDX. Green argues that inflation will relent soon, and that the future rate hikes priced into the bond market likely overstate how far the Federal Reserve will actually raise rates.
Mike Green on Twitter @profplum99
Simplify on Twitter @SimplifyETFs
Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_
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BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://www.bcbgroup.com/jack
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Two papers Green discusses:
Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967
Lasse Heje Pedersen, Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2849071
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Thu, 24 Feb 2022 22:22:00 -0000Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine with Jacob Shapiro
Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the impact of Russia's latest moves involving Ukraine.
Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives
Follow Lykeion @thelykeion
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Wed, 23 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000Russia/Ukraine Crisis To Cause Commodity Doom Loop | Jacob Shapiro
*AUDIO DISCLAIMER: Mic issue during the recording led to some high levels on Jack's end. We're aware, and we're sorry! Might want to tap the volume down a couple notches for this one.
Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Forward Guidance to break down the rapidly escalating hostility between Russia and Ukraine. Shapiro puts in context including Russias recognition of Luhansk and Donestk as independent sovereign republics and the punitive sanctions on Russia.
Shapiro tells Jack Farley that, if Russian tanks roll down the tanks of Kiev, the West might cut Russia off from the payment rails for global commerce, SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). If Russia were unable to sell its natural gas, wheat, and other commodities in Western markets, Shapiro continues, there could be a commodity doom loop that would cause prices to skyrocket.
Shapiro also shares his outlook on China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Iran. Shapiro also serves as chief strategist at Perch Perspectives and the Geopolitics editor at Lykeion. This interview was recorded on Tuesday, February 22, at 10 am Eastern Time.
Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives
Follow Lykeion @thelykeion
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Sun, 20 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000Why Inflation Will Dissipate | Bilal Hafeez
Bilal Hafeez joins Jack Farley to discuss and analyse the differences between Europe and the United States on this episode of Forward Guidance. Not only does he lay out the departing events and patterns that distinct each region, but also explore other countries, like China and Brazil.
Along with that, Hafeez also outlines his crypto views, experience during the last two years, and what he sees going forward for crypto.
Follow Bilal Hafeez @bilalhafeez123
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
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BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 17 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton
Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, brings his expertise in trading, timing, and technicals to Forward Guidance. Thornton shares with Jack Farley the serious risks he sees to the stock market, such as the end of quantitative easing (QE), coordinated central bank rate hikes, widening spreads, inverted yield curves, and, perhaps most importantly, the highest inflation in 40 years.
Tommy Thorntons Twitter: @TommyThornton
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
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Tue, 15 Feb 2022 21:00:14 -0000Bank of Japan Re-embraces Yield Curve Control | Roundup
Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) tackle the latest in central banking news, from the the Bank of Japans (8301.T) announcement that it would pin Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at 25 basis points, to the massively-overhyped emergency Fed meeting on Monday, to St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullards comments that the Federal Reserves credibility is on the line.
Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Sun, 13 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000The Fed Won't Get their Soft Landing | Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Jack Farley to share in-depth his framework for understanding the new interplay of inflation, the Fed, and asset prices in 2022.
Bianco argues that the mounting pressures on central banks to tame inflation mean that they are far less worried about maintaining asset prices. Bianco and Farley also discuss DeFi as a threat to the traditional banking industry and the profound economic and social consequences of the rise of work-from-home. Filmed on February 9, 2022.
Follow Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
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BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack.
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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 10 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000Financial Meltdown: The Trades Of March 2020 | Alex Gurevich
Alex Gurevich, CIO of Honte Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his learnings from running a large macro hedge fund during the gut-wrenching volatility of March 2020. Using time-date transcripts and charts from his new book, The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty, Gurevich tells of the epic mispricings and gut-wrenching drawdowns that sent shockwaves through the global financial world. Gurevich provides insight on institutional macro products such as Eurodollar options, oil futures, currency swaps, and much more. Gurevich looks forward and tells Farley his current outlook on Fed Fund Futures, long-term bonds, as well as risk-assets (beta) such as equities and commodities.
Alex Gurevich on Twitter: @agurevich23
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Tue, 08 Feb 2022 21:00:00 -0000European Bonds Throw A Tantrum | Joseph Wang
Co-hosts Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) break down the surge in European bonds in response to the hawkish shift of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB). Wang explains his most recent post on the damage that rate hikes inflict onto holders of fixed-income instruments, and the two explore the significance and consequences of a globally coordinated effort by central banks to stop inflation in its tracks.
Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Wangs most recent article on Quantitative hikes: https://fedguy.com/quantitative-hikes/
Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Sun, 06 Feb 2022 17:00:00 -0000The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins
Porter Collins and Vincent Daniels were some of the last investors to bet against the Federal Reserve and win. Over 13 years after the events of The Big Short, they reflect on the past decade wherein the Federal Reserve tamed asset price volatility by keeping short-term rates very low and steadily expanding their balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE).
Learning from this lesson, Daniels and Collins explains how Seawolf Capital largely avoided shorting stocks during 2021 because the Fed had the markets back. Now that high inflation has forced the Feds hand to tighten monetary policy, Daniels and Collins think that 2022 will be an excellent year for short-selling, and that in particular the most vulnerable stocks are unprofitable growth companies that saw enormous price appreciation in 2020 and 2021. The pair explain why they remain bullish on nuclear energy, the cannabis industry, as well as stocks in the shipping and energy sector.
Follow Porter Collins @Seawolfcap
Follow Vincent Daniels @VD718
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
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BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack.
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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 03 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000The Fed Doesn't Care About Your Feelings | Liz Young
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley sits down with Liz Young for a market 101 breakdown. Not only does Liz investigate some of the broader market trends, but narrows focus to explain how human behaviour, current events, and the Fed's mechanisms have all culminated in what we see today.
Tue, 01 Feb 2022 21:01:58 -0000Will The Dollars Rise Crush Central Banks Plans?
Jack Farley welcomes back former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (Fed Guy), to analyze an action-packed week in which global central banks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Central Bank of Brazil, and the European Central Bank (ECB) release their plans for forthcoming monetary policy. Wang explains why a continued rise in the U.S. Dollar relative to other fiat currencies would likely force other central banks to tighten at a rate they deem to be too fast. Farley fields questions from the audience regarding balance sheet run-off and pace of rate hikes, and he poses to Wang the eternal questions: are reserves money?
Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Sun, 30 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis | Russell Napier
Russell Napier of Orlock Advisors joins Jack Farley to share lessons from his experience as an financial analyst in Hong Kong during the Asian Financial Crisis. Napier notes that during the bull market in Asian equities of the first half of the 1990s, analysts attributed the boom to the high rates of economic growth in much of Asia. However, Napier tells Farley that the true cause of the dramatic bull market was the multitude of pegged exchange rates that did not allow Asian currencies to strengthen as foreign capital flowed in, boosting liquidity conditions.
However, once the tide of foreign capital reversed course, the Asian miracle became a nightmare.
Napier is the author of The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-98: Birth of the Age of Debt. https://www.libraryofmistakes.com/
Library of Mistakes Twitter: @EdinburghLoM
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 28 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000Has the Fed Abandoned Risk Assets? | Joseph Wang
Jack Farley welcomes former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) for a new show devoted to all things central banking. The two analyze the most recent FOMC meeting, after which Fed Chair Powell on January 26, indicated that the strong labor market and high inflation prints were leading the Feds FOMC members to contemplate removing monetary accommodation with more speed and vigor than previously anticipated.
Wang and Farley discuss the spike in Fed Funds Futures, quantitative tightening (QTs) impact on the market, as well as the striking request of Chinas leader, Xi Jinping, that the Federal Reserve not raise rates.
Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 25 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000Upcoming Risks for Stocks and Bitcoin | Lyn Alden
Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to give a much-needed update on her macro views as equity and crypto markets encounter intense selling pressure. Alden argues that stubbornly high inflation will cause rotation from growth stocks to value stocks to continue.
However, Alden argues that shes more likely to buy than short beleaguered hypergrowth names (think $ARKK) - instead she sees the greatest weakness in the mega-cap FAANG names, which she compares to the Nifty Fifty stocks, a basket of blue-chip equities that seemed impregnable in the 1960s but ultimately fared poorly in the later inflationary decade of the 1970s. But its not the 1970s, where interest rates rose to meet inflation, that reminds Alden the most of our current era; instead it is the 1940s, where policies such as yield curve control ensured that bond yields remained well below levels of inflation.
Alden argues that in this environment of sustained negative real interest rates, commodities will perform very well, and in particular commodities of fixed supply like gold and Bitcoin.
Lyn Alden on Twitter: @LynAldenContact
Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Lyn Aldens investment analysis can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/.
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter.
Fri, 21 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000Inflation or Recession - Which Will the Fed Choose? } Jared Dillian
Is the Federal Reserve stuck between a rock and a hard place? Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap argues that the monetary tightening needed to tame inflation will inflict serious damage to the economic recovery, to the point that the Fed essentially has a choice between secular inflation and severe recession.
Which door will the Fed choose? Dillian is inclined to believe that the Fed will attempt to chart a middle path between both options that will actually result in the dreaded stagflation - where inflation continues to rise while economic growth slows down.
Dillian tells Forward Guidance host Jack Farley why he thinks the ongoing rotation from growth stocks to value stocks will continue, and why he in particular is interesting in buying the shares of big and ugly companies. Dillian also shares his views on crypto, gold, and bonds.
Dillian on Twitter: @dailydirtnap
Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 18 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000Stock & Crypto Options Have Exploded - Whats Next? | Imran Lakha & Ming Zhao
Imran Lakha and Ming Zhao join Jack Farley to make sense of how the proliferation of options has changed the investing landscape in tradfi and crypto. After discussing the role of memestocks like GameStop and AMC, as well as structural vol selling call overwriting, Lakha and Zhao share the dos and donts of buying and selling options, such as why investors should never exercise options, and how investors should think about whether implied volatility is rich or cheap. Lakha and Zhao also catalog the explosion of crypto options, both via centralized exchanges such as Deribit as well as the emergence of DeFi Options Vaults (DOVs).
Zhao on Twitter: @FabiusMercurius
Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight
Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 14 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000The Powell Put Won't Save Stocks | Joseph Wang
In this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack once again sits down with former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang, more commonly known by his moniker Fed Guy.
In the interview, the two go deep into the leadership, policy, and future of the Federal Reserve, as well as look at how textbook concepts such as the Fed controlling inflation through the federal funds rate are outdated at best. Joseph takes his years of experience and impressive knowledge of modern financial systems to critique how central banks run the economies of today. Jack and Joseph question if the Fed is on the right path to end inflation and if the current regime even knows how to combat the problems of an economy overheated by fiscal stimulus. Dont miss this important and thought-provoking interview.
Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Wed, 12 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000Can Earning Season Save Growth Stocks? | Sam Burns
In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley sits down with Sam Burns, the founder and chief strategist of Mill Street Research.
In addition to general macro trends in the economic and financial world, Sam and Jack discuss Sams MAER model (Monitor of Analyst Earning Revisions), which uses the insight of market analysts to judge how the markets will move. Using the research of analysts, Sam is able to buck the predictions of the crowd and come to his own well-formulated conclusions on markets. Jack and Sam delve into complexity sometimes required to grasp todays difficult-to-understand swings in finance. The two question and rethink traditional narratives within finance in this high-level discussion.
Dont miss this talk with a heterodox thinker in the financial industry.
Mill Street Research on Twitter: @MillStResearch
Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 07 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000The Crisis Brewing in Energy Markets | Tracy Shuchart
In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley and guest Tracy Shuchart discuss the tumultuous past two years of the energy market. Since 2020, the markets for oil and natural gas have hit historic points, most famously when the futures price of oil went negative in April of 2020. Tracy gives expert insight into how the energy sectors adaptation to massive shocks in demand, production, and financial credibility have affected the price of oil in the spot market and the futures market. The interview delves not only into the superficial price movements of the recent past, but into powerful decision makers such as OPEC as well.
Additionally, Tracy and Jack look at exogenous factors causing price movements, such as a move towards green energy and recent geopolitical tensions in Europe and Central Asia. The conversation delves into the current reality of the energy market, as well as its potential future.
Hedge Fund Telemetry: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/author/tracy-shuchart/
Tracy Shuchart on Twitter: @chigrl
Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 04 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000Theres A Bubble in The Inflation Narrative | Darius Dale
Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for 2022. Dale explains why his business cycle framework, which tracks the rate of change in growth and inflation in order to forecast and risk manage asset allocation, is signaling that the bloom may be off the rose for high-beta assets such as speculative growth darlings, crypto-assets SPACs, as well as reflationary stocks in the materials and energy space.
Because the rate of change of economic growth is falling, Dale expects safer assets like mega-cap tech (FAANG) and long-term government bonds to outperform on a relative basis. Dale notes that his framework is probabilistic in nature, not deterministic, and he argues that investors are better served by weighing the likelihood of relative outcomes rather than looking into their crystal ball for certain outcomes. Dale also cautions against becoming wedded to narratives that promise assured outcomes.
42Macro website: https://42macro.com/
Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale
Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 31 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle
On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jack welcomes Ronnie Stoeferle, partner at Incrementum AG. Stoeferle argues that the world is already in a new inflationary era that he calls monetary climate change.
Stoeferle discusses key features of a debt-based monetary system (50 years and counting) and predicts that the merging of fiscal and monetary policy will create a shift from asset price inflation to consumer price inflation. Stoeferle shares why he believes gold and Bitcoin will do very will in this new monetary environment, and he elaborates on several key drives of the prices of both of these non-inflatable assets.
Incrementum's website: https://www.incrementum.li/en/
Ronnie Stoeferles Twitter: @RonStoeferle
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 28 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000The Hidden Risks of Passive Investing | Steven Bregman
The rise of indexation has given many investors a cheap and straightforward way to access the stock market. But now that over half of all investing dollars are allocated to passive strategies, is the dominance of passive investing creating market distortions in ways that meaningfully alter share prices?
Steven Bregman, president and co-founder of Horizon Kinetics, has been tracking the consequences of passive indexations rapid rise, and on this sixteenth episode of Forward Guidance, he shares with viewers his findings.
Bregman explains key factors such as the crowding-out effect and hidden illiquidity that can explain the drastic outperformance of equity giants such as Apple, Microsoft, and other mega-cap stocks ($NVDA, $TSLA, $FB, etc.) that now comprise nearly half of the S&P 500.Bregman argues that the S&P 500 in 2021 is no longer a diversified basket of stocks as it was 30 years ago, because so many out-of-favor stocks such as oil drillers, gold miners, and other businesses that benefit from bouts of inflation (such as the one right now) have been crowded-out of the index.
At the end of this nearly two-hour masterclass in passive investing, Bregman reveals a formula that he argues is guaranteed to beat the S&P 500: select for the smart penny.
Horizon Kinetics website:https://horizonkinetics.com/
Jacks prior interview with James Davolos, Portfolio Manager of the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bVpJ58FhFc
About $INFL:https://horizonkinetics.com/products/etf/infl/
Horizon Kinetics Twitter handle: @HorizonKinetics
Jack Farleys Twitter handle: @JackFarley96
Fri, 24 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000Former Fed Trader: Rate Hikes Will Crash Markets | Joseph Wang
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang, renowned former Fed trader, shares his views and observations on our macro world. Not only does he explain concepts like quantitative easing, but he also goes over the disparate affects of various market conditions-- from the Fed's accelerated taper, to the outcome of rate hikes. Wang's views and discussions on both the past but future long-term are not to be missed!
Tue, 21 Dec 2021 15:14:04 -0000Felix Zulaufs Big Calls For 2022 And Beyond
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor known for his uncanny market timing, shares his outlook on various time horizons about stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf explains why the reflationary types of trades might continue to sell-off over the near-term as economic conditions worsen, however restored liquidity conditions might in the second half of 2022 breathe new life in stocks and commodities. Zulauf shares his longer-term analysis on gold and currencies, and tells Jack Farley why he thinks that bond yields are in the process of bottoming.
Fri, 17 Dec 2021 14:00:00 -0000The Bull Market In Crap Is Over | Kevin Muir
Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares:
Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold
Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls crap) will likely continue
How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocks
Tue, 14 Dec 2021 14:00:00 -0000Are Bonds Pricing in a Market Crash? | Alfonso Peccatiello
Todays guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation.
Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass.
Alfonso shares with Blockworks Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss:
- the global credit impulse turning negative
- long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt)
- why quantitative easing (QE) isnt inflationary
Alfonso Peccatiellos Twitter: @MacroAlf
Jack Farleys Twitter:@JackFarley96
Alfonso Peccatiellos newsletter, The Macro Compass:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/
Article on quantitative easing:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printing
Article on 2022 outlook:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio
Fri, 10 Dec 2021 16:30:00 -0000Inflation Is Not Transitory, And Neither Is The Bear Market In Atrocious Companies | Harris Kupperman
With fund managers keen to lock in gains from a lucrative year, the pain trade is here, says Harris Kuppy Kupperman. Moreover, pie-in-the-sky technology companies are falling back to earth, threatening to bring the entire market down with them. Yet Kuppy remains bullish on risk assets because in his Project Zimbabwe framework wherein inflation runs rampant as central banks remain hopelessly behind the curve, going long is the way to go. Kuppy argues that oil futures are the assets that will benefit most from inflation because ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates will depress supply. Kuppy, the publisher of Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM), also shares several idiosyncratic trades ranging from Uranium to paper. Kuppy and Blockworks Jack Farley also discuss China, Robinhood, and United States Oil ETF ($USO).
Tue, 07 Dec 2021 22:32:23 -0000A Little Bitcoin Goes a Long Way | James Butterfill
The emergence of crypto funds and exchange traded products (ETPs) has changed the game - but just how much capital is flowing into crypto via these channels? James Butterfill, Investment Strategist at CoinShares, joins Jack Farley to shed light on the crypto fund flows that are serving as onramps for many institutional investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Solana and Polkadot.
Fri, 03 Dec 2021 19:12:35 -0000The Unintended Consequences of Central Banks' Easy Money | William White
Listeners of the Forward Guidance podcast are in for a real treat today. Jack interviews noted economist and former central banker Dr. William White, who served on the front lines of monetary policy for over half a decade. White, a stern critic of the easy money policy that preceded the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, argues that ultra-low interest rates threatens financial stability and creates a bevy of unintended consequences such as flash crashes, overvalued asset prices, and abrupt illiquidity. Dr. White shares his views on whether the U.S dollars status as the worlds reserve currency is sustainable, and why bond yields remain low in face of the red-hot inflation that has descended on so many countries. Lastly, Dr. White makes the case that these economic woes are but one of the major four challenges world faces, with the other three "Four Horsemen" being in the spheres of politics, public health, and the environment.
Tue, 30 Nov 2021 14:30:00 -0000Investment Strategies to PROFIT From Inflation (Not Just Hedge) | James Davolos
With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal?
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that inflation will increase the value of scalable, economically resilient business models with exposure to hard assets, and he shares several examples, ranging from gold royalty companies and financial exchanges to timber companies and agricultural processing firms.
Fri, 26 Nov 2021 18:52:32 -0000The Dollar Rises With Crypto And Gold - What Gives? | Michael Nicoletos at DAS: London
When Jack Farley ran into macro investor Michael Nicoletos at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in London, he knew the two had to film an interview. Nicoletos shares his thoughts on cryptos role within a macro portfolio, why the U.S. dollar is rising against other currencies, and why the 40-year bull market in bonds might not yet be over. Nicoletos argues that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will eventually replace stablecoins as an onramp to crypto, and argues that China economic woes are very serious.
Blockworks next crypto event in May 2021:https://blockworks.co/events/permissionless/
Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96
Michael Nicoletos Twitter: @mnicoletos
Tue, 23 Nov 2021 12:00:00 -0000The Psychological Toll of Inflation | Vincent Deluard
We're heading for an inflationary decade that will change society as we know it. That's according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc,who argues inflation is not transitory as many insist but rather a feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks' Jack Farley 5 reasons why high prices are no longer the cure to high prices, including today's tight labor market, the flurry of post-Covid spending packages, and China's withdrawal from its role as an exporter of deflation. Deluard argues that inflation itself is inflationary; while soaring commodity prices, supply chains bottlenecks, and excessive stimulus are undoubtedly the immediate drivers of the current spike in prices, the fundamental driver of secular inflation is an insidious increase in our collective preference for the present.
Fri, 19 Nov 2021 12:00:00 -0000How To Spot Overvalued Companies | Tobias Carlisle
Tobias Carlisle, Portfolio Manager at Acquirers Funds, joins Jack Farley on this sixth episode of Forward Guidance to explain why he believes quality companies are being serially undervalued. Carlisle argues that the equity market assigns far too high of a value on fast-growing stocks, and far too-little of a value on companies whose revenues are growing slowly but whose return on capital is very high and whose balance sheets are pristine. Carlisle shares with Farley the methodology and structure of of his value funds, The Acquirers Fund ($ZIG) and the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value ETF ($DEEP), and he shares his vision for the future of value investing.
Fri, 12 Nov 2021 11:55:00 -0000Is Inflation Overhyped? | Eric Basmajian
Is the 40-year era of falling bond yields and low inflation coming to an end? That is the question investors have been asking themselves for months, and now that October's CPI reading hit its highest level since 1991, it is a query that can no longer be avoided.
Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research is confident that all this anxiety is unnecessary. On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Basmajian tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rate of inflation will soon relent, and why he thinks the bull market in bonds is nowhere close to over. Pointing to the fall in economic growth rates as measured by industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income, Basmajian argues that an overweight allocation to Treasury bonds will protect investors from a slowdown in growth, as can be seen by the rolling over of coincident factors such as industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income. Basmajian explores particularly explosive parts of the Consumer Price Index like durable goods and rent, and he explains his long-term view that aging populations will ensure low bond yields in the United States just as they did in Europe and Japan.
Basmajian's article on demographics:
https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/the-global-demographic-vortex
Basmajian's article on rent inflation:
https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/are-you-worried-about-rent-inflation
The Dallas Fed's paper on rent inflation:
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0824
Fri, 05 Nov 2021 11:00:00 -0000Deconstructing Macro Narratives About Inflation, Bonds, and Bitcoin | Huw Roberts, Quant Insight
The world of macro investing is full of narratives: that a rising dollar threatens emerging market stocks and commodity prices; that rising bond yields imperil growth stocks but buoy value stocks; and that inflation is bad for Tesla, good for gold, and great for Bitcoin. There is more than a grain of truth to these mantras, but they miss the complex interplay of macro variables. On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley investigates these sacred cows of macro to see if they are a little shaky on their legs in a man vs. machine conversation with Huw Roberts, head of analytics at Quant Insight.
Tue, 02 Nov 2021 11:00:00 -0000Hunting for Hidden Financial Risks | Stephen Clapham
Do balance sheets matter? Do cash flows matter? In a world where asset prices are driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, the answer can seem to be yes. But since this environment gives companies license to embroider their finances, the ability to spot their accounting sleight-of-hand is of immense value to investors.
Today on the third episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes Stephen Clapham, forensic accountant and founder of Behind the Balance Sheet. Clapham shows the most common instances of financial legerdemain and gives in depth analysis of companies such as Tesla, Ferrari, and The Hut Group.
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 12:59:46 -0000The Global Energy Crisis, Explained | Warren Pies
The world faces an energy crisis that threatens to stop the economic recovery in its tracks.
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Jack Farley to explain the root causes of soaring prices of oil and natural gas. Pies argues that the world is entering a regime of secular inflation that will have profound implications for investors, such as turning the correlation between stocks and bonds from negative to positive.
Pies shares his views on real assets and explains why he thinks Bitcoin will likely continue to outperform gold at least over the short-term. PIes challenges mainstream narratives about Bitcoin such as the stock-to-flow model as well its being uncorrelated with other risk assets.
Wed, 27 Oct 2021 16:09:47 -0000The Unwinding of the Long Term Debt Cycle | Lyn Alden
Forward Guidance is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, Jack Farley will be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday.
Today's show is with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Lyn will be sharing why she thinks the global financial system is nearing the apogee of a long-term debt cycle, and the only way to unwind the leverage without causing ruinous economic data is through persistently higher inflation and a significantly weaker U.S. Dollar. Alden also shares her views on surging energy costs, Chinas stock market woes, and the flurry of new Bitcoin ETFs that have come to market recently.

Motley Fool Money
Tue, 21 Mar 2023 20:25:00 +0000Inflation vs. Banking Drama
Which one is Fed Chief Jay Powell weighing more in advance of Wednesday afternoon's announcement about interest rates?
(0:20) Bill Mann discusses:
- The current state of play in the banking industry
- Risks of trouble spreading to other industries
- What Jay Powell is (probably) focusing on as he weighs the next decision around interest rates
(10:37) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer your questions about asset allocation, company spin-offs, and bond ETFs.
Companies discussed: UBS, CS, WBD
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 20 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000Meanwhile, in Switzerland...
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- UBS buying Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion
- The ripple effects of everyone checking with their bank
- Why Amazon's latest layoff announcement has him looking at the revenue-per-employee metric
(13:58) Ricky Mulvey catches up with Jacob Goldstein, host of the podcast "What's Your Problem?" to talk about bank runs, why they happen, and how businesses could potentially prepare for them.
Companies discussed: UBS, CS, AMZN, SIVB
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Jacob Goldstein
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Sun, 19 Mar 2023 15:00:00 +0000Vince McMahons Advantage
If you hate Vince McMahon, then maybe youll buy a tee-shirt for his rival. And thats a great outcome for the WWE.
Abraham Josephine Riesman is the author of Ringmaster: Vince McMahon and the Unmaking of America. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Riesman to discuss:
- Vince McMahons early life as a pretty nice kid, and the parts of his story he doesnt want wrestling fans to know.
- WWEs potential deal with the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund.
- The Montreal Screwjob, and the groundwork for the modern WWE.
- A story about Saddam Husseins side job as a wrestling promoter, Andre the Giant, and a golden gun.
Company discussed: WWE
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Abraham Josephine Riesman
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sat, 18 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000Waze Co-Founder on Entrepreneurship, Autonomous Vehicles, and ChatGPT
When venture capital investors walk into a pitch meeting, they usually know if theyre saying yes before anyone starts talking.
Uri Levine is the co-founder of Waze and the author of Fall in Love with the Problem, Not the Solution: A Handbook for Entrepreneurs. Alex Friedman caught up with Levine to talk about:
- The early days of Waze.
- One way to know if a company will die.
- What happens, behind the scenes, when venture capital investors choose investments.
- ChatGPT, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving.
Company discussed: GOOG, GOOGL
Host: Alex Friedman
Guest: Uri Levine
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Fri, 17 Mar 2023 20:22:00 +0000The Fed's Next Move, ESPNs Future
Inflation data and the state of play in the banking industry has investors wondering: What will the Fed decide next week about interest rates?
(0:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- First Republic getting $30 billion in deposits from 11 major banks
- The latest CPI and PPI numbers continuing the trend of cooling inflation
- Whether the Federal Reserve should raise rates next week (and if so, by how much) or hit the pause button
- The latest from FedEx, Adobe, Lennar, and Williams-Sonoma
(19:11) John Ourand from Sports Business Journal and the "Sports Media Podcast" analyzes the economics of March Madness, why he's bullish on the upcoming MLB season, and Disney CEO Bob Iger's latest thinking on ESPN.
(32:13) Matt and Jason discuss Google raising the price of YouTube TV and share two stocks on their radar: Charles Schwab and Zebra Technologies.
Stocks discussed: SIVB, FRC, BAC, JPM, WFC, C, PNC, MTB, FDX, ADBE, LEN, WSM, FOX, WBD, PARA, DIS, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, SCHW, ZBRA
To get your copy of our free report "Top Stocks For Rising Interest Rates" just go to fool.com/interest.
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, John Ourand
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 16 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000Retail & Tech Try To Transform
Adobe wants to be a customer experience platform, and a discount retailer is upscaling.
(0:21) Deidre Woollard and Asit Sharma discuss:
- Adobes quarter, and issues acquiring Figma.
- Tech companies rushing to launch generative AI.
- Five Below converting stores to Five Beyond.
- Labor issues for Dollar General.
Plus, (15:50) stock market madness continues. Bill Mann and Nick Sciple face off to pitch a stock in a better buy debate.
Companies discussed: ADBE, FIVE, DG, PAC, BWXT
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Asit Sharma, Bill Mann, Nick Sciple
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Wed, 15 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000Big Telecoms vs. Deadpool
Ryan Reynolds is joining the T-Mobile team, as Verizon and AT&T adjust.
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- T-Mobile buys the parent company of Mint Mobile in a cash and stock deal worth $1.3 billion
- How (and when) Mint's business could be accretive to T-Mobile
- Why the ripple effect from Silicon Valley Bank's situation will hit potential IPOs and what it means for investors
(14:05) Our stock version of March Madness continues! Kirsten Guerra and Jason Moser face off to make the case on why their stock is a better buy right now.
Companies discussed: TMUS, VZ, T, SIVB, GM, TSLA, OM
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Kirsten Guerra, Jason Moser
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Tue, 14 Mar 2023 20:17:00 +0000Is Buffett Targeting This Bank?
Just because the "Oracle of Omaha" has been quiet lately doesn't mean he isn't sizing up his next big buy.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The latest CPI numbers and the current state of play in the banking industry
- One bank that fits the description of something Warren Buffett might be interested in
- Meta Platforms announcing another round of layoffs
(14:58) Sanmeet Deo and Tim Beyers face off against one another with stocks they believe are a better buy right now.
Companies discussed: FRC, SCHW, SIVB, PNC, META, XPOF, MNDY
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Sanmeet Deo, Tim Beyers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000Big Banks Sure Are Quiet These Days
Regulators seized another bank over the weekend, as the federal government came up with a plan to use money from a fund paid into by U.S. banks to make SVB's depositors whole again.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Signature Bank failing and shares of First Republic Bank falling 60%.
- Why "bailout" is probably not the right word to describe what's happening
- How big banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are gaining strength simply by going about their business
(11:20) We're celebrating our own version of "March Madness" by having analysts face off, bracket-style, as they go head-to-head over which stock is a better buy. Jim Gillies and Jim Mueller kick off the week with a biotech software company and a well-known real estate broker.
Companies discussed: SIVB, SBNY, FRC, SCHW, BAC, JPM, SDGR, RMAX
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Jim Gillies, Jim Mueller
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers
Sun, 12 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000Michael Lewis on Stock Market Overconfidence and Revisiting Moneyball
One sign of a true expert is they often say I dont know.
Best-selling author Michael Lewis wrote classics like The Big Short, Liar's Poker, and Moneyball. He also hosts the podcast Against The Rules. Chris Hill talked with Lewis last year for an episode we published on May 20, 2022. Due to time constraints we had to leave some parts of the conversation out of that episode, so we're bringing them to you now! Hill and Lewis discuss:
- Unintended consequences of Moneyball
- Why single men fare worse in the stock market
- How Iceland responded to the Great Recession
- How to spot true experts
"Boys Will Be Boys" paper: https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/gender/BoysWillBeBoys.pdf
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Michael Lewis
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sat, 11 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000Is Investing a Game?
In everyday life, your value system is complicated and rich. Games make that system simple, and you know exactly how well youve done.
C. Thi Nguyen is a philosophy professor at University of Utah and author of the book Games: Agency As Art. Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner caught up with Nguyen to discuss:
- The bright and dark sides of gamification
- How Twitter changed the way we communicate
- Good, bad, and evil games
Todays conversation comes from a recent episode of David's weekly podcast, Rule Breaker Investing. To hear the entire show, click here:
https://www.fool.com/podcasts/rule-breaker-investing/2023-02-15-from-twister-to-twitter-games-and-c
Host: David Gardner
Guest: C. Thi Nguyen
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Fri, 10 Mar 2023 21:13:00 +0000Not Too Big To Fail
In a wild end to the week, Silicon Valley Bank was shut down by regulators in the biggest bank failure since the Great Recession.
(0:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- February's jobs report (and potential ripple effects)
- The stunning collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
- Vail Resorts staffing up to meet demand
- How the "Lipstick Effect" is benefitting Ulta Beauty
- The latest from Docusign, and Dick's Sporting Goods
(19:11) Nell Minow, Vice Chair of Value Edge Advisors, offers a prescription for making stock buyback plans more shareholder-friendly, thoughts on ESG guidelines, and predictions for the Academy Awards.
(35:15) Jason and Matt share two stocks on their radar: InterDigital and Global Industrial Co.
Stocks discussed: SIVB, MKL, DOCU, MTN, ULTA, DKS, AMC, DIS, GOOG, IDCC, GIC
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Nell Minow
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 09 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000"This one's gonna leave a mark."
(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Why shares of SVB Financial Group are plunging more than 45%
- The reasons he's a fan of AerCap Holdings' secondary offering
(15:24) Ricky Mulvey talks with investigative reporter Marshall Zelinger about Xcel Energy and the fundamentals of being a monopoly.
Companies discussed: SIVB, AER, XEL
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Marshall Zelinger
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Wed, 08 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000$30 Million Worth of Bobbleheads
Sometimes the most cost-effective way to deal with inventory glut is to simply throw it away.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Shares of Crowdstrike rising as the cybersecurity company closed out the fiscal year on a strong note
- Taking the "basket approach" to cybersecurity stocks
- Funko Pop's surprising solution to having too much inventory
(12:13) Mary Long talks with Blackrock managing director Gargi Chaudhuri about the case for bonds, and some economic predictions her team made in 2022.
Companies discussed: CRWD, FNKO
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, Mary Long, Gargi Chaudhuri
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers
Tue, 07 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000New Flavors of FIRE
The Fed Chief goes to Capitol Hill, Dick's Sporting Goods crushes expectations, and there's more than one type of FIRE.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The market's reaction to Chairman Powell's testimony in front of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee
- Shares of Dick's Sporting Goods popping 11% on same-store sales growth that more than doubled expectations
- How inventory management is a key in Dick's Sporting Goods recent success
(12:33) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Megan Brinsfield about the FIRE (Financially Independent, Retire Early) movement.
Companies discussed: DKS, HD, LOW, TGT, WMT
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Megan Brinsfield
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
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Megan Brinsfield is the Director of Financial Planning at MFWM. The comments and ideas presented by the speaker in this podcast are solely those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent those of MFWM or any of its affiliates. This discussion is for informational purposes only and should not be construed an investment or financial planning advice or recommendations. Certain statements may be deemed forward-looking, however there is no guarantee of any outcome. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Mon, 06 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000What's Your Investing Thesis?
It's always a good idea to know why you're about to invest in a business.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Short-term catalysts, long-term trends, and why it's ok to invest in both
- The importance of understanding how a business makes money
- Reasons to sell a stock
(10:17) Deidre Woollard looks back at the bear market of 2020 with Liz Hoffman, author of the new book "Crash Landing: The Inside Story Of How The World's Biggest Companies Survived An Economy On The Brink".
Companies discussed: ABND GS, HLT
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Deidre Woollard, Liz Hoffman
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Heather Horton, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 05 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000Paramount: The House of Redstone
Its one thing to hear that money doesnt buy happiness. It's another to find that out after wiring $90 million dollars to two separate romantic partners in one afternoon.
James B. Stewart and Rachel Abrams are the co-authors of Unscripted: The Epic Battle for a Media Empire and the Redstone Family Legacy. They joined Catie Peiper to discuss:
- How billionaires try to bend reality
- If Paramount chair Shari Redstone can innovate in a new media landscape
- Problems with CEO succession at media companies
Companies discussed: PARA, DIS
Host: Catie Peiper
Guests: James B. Stewart, Rachel Stewart
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Sat, 04 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000Michelle Singletary on Investing, Retirement, and the Lies We Tell Ourselves About Money
Michelle Singletary is a best-selling author and Loeb Award-winning writer. She also pens The Color of Money, a nationally syndicated personal finance column which appears in The Washington Post. Robert Brokamp caught up with Singletary to discuss:
- Why people fall for Ponzi schemes
- If you should pay off your mortgage before retirement
- Why we often lie about spending habits
Host: Robert Brokamp
Guest: Michelle Singletary
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Annie Franks
Fri, 03 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000Software, Retail, and Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks
When the overwhelming majority of your business is in the United States, you have to have a plan for growing internationally. Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks and his team have just such a plan.
(0:21) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss:
- Whether Costco is ready to increase membership fees
- Salesforce focusing more on profitability
- Seeing light at the end of Okta's tunnel
- How "it's all ball bearings" for C3.AI
- The latest from Target, Lowe's, Best Buy, and Zoom Video
(19:11) Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks discusses his company's opportunities to expand outside the U.S., the housing market, and what informs the guidance Trex offers to Wall Street.
(35:00) Jason and Ron return to share two stocks on their radar: Samsara and T. Rowe Price.
Get a copy of our new free report, Top Stocks For Rising Interest Rates, by going to fool.com/interest!
Stocks discussed: COST, CRM, TGT, LOW, OKTA, AI, BBY, ZM, TREX, IOT, TROW
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser, Bryan Fairbanks
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 02 Mar 2023 20:14:00 +0000Salesforce Increases Its Focus (and Buybacks)
(0:20) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Shares of Salesforce popping 12% on better-than-expected 4th-quarter results
- How Salesforce has more focus but is still a business in transition
- The doubling of the company's share buyback program
(11:30) Jason Moser and Matt Frankel discuss the decline of the "Nice to have" economy.
Companies discussed: CRM, PTON, NFLX, DIS, SFIX, FIGS
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Wed, 01 Mar 2023 20:57:00 +00004 Stocks We Just Bought
Lowe's continues a recent trend from major retailers.
(0:20) Bill Mann discusses:
- Solid 4th-quarter results from Lowe's being overshadowed by their guidance for the new fiscal year
- The fact that some people on Wall Street are still surprised by cautious guidance
- The relative attractiveness of Lowe's stock
(10:00) Yasser El-Shimy and Ricky Mulvey share four stocks they bought recently.
Companies discussed: LOW, HD, WMT, TGT, ARHS, ENPH, BIG, MAA
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Yasser El-Shimy
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Tue, 28 Feb 2023 20:00:00 +0000Target's Improving Inventory
After a particularly rough 2022, Target is getting back to basics.
(0:20) Matt Argersinger discusses:
- Zoom Video's slowing revenue growth
- How Zoom's brand gives it an advantage against bigger competitors
- Target beating expectations with household items, groceries, and a better management of its inventory
(11:00) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp take a closer look at tech layoffs in 2023 and one company that's managed them well.
To watch the 30-minute deep dive on dividend investing go to MasterClass.Fool.com before midnight on Wednesday!
Companies discussed: ZM, MSFT, GOOG, TGT, WMT, HD, AAPL
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Mon, 27 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Buffett Brings The Heat
It's not often that the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway gets spicy with his annual letter but he did this time.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Buffett's vigorous defense of share buyback programs
- How Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio reflects Buffett's beliefs on share buybacks
- McDonald's expanding its test of Krispy Kreme doughnuts to 160 locations, and what it could mean for investors
(14:45) Toby Bordelon and Jose Najarro engage in a bull vs. bear debate over one of the most popular gaming apps: Roblox
On a brand-new bonus episode of the Stock Advisor Roundtable podcast, Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner shares his 10 stocks for making money in the market! Motley Fool premium members, click here to link your Motley Fool membership to a Spotify account and begin listening to this exclusive new podcast!
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Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, AAPL, AXP, KO, MCD, DNUT, RBLX
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Toby Bordelon, Jose Najarro
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Sun, 26 Feb 2023 16:00:00 +0000The Resilience of Black Wall Street
One of the most important events of Americas economic and racial history is one that hasnt been discussed often.
Gary Lee is the managing editor of the Oklahoma Eagle, a Tulsa-based and black-owned media company. Lee joined The Motley Fools Bill Mann to talk about:
- The history of Black Wall Street, and the rise of the Greenwood community.
- The legacy of the Tulsa Race Massacre and Tulsas path forward.
Host: Bill Mann
Guest: Gary Lee
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Sat, 25 Feb 2023 16:00:00 +0000Value Hunting
Motley Fool Senior Analyst Rich Greifner joins Ricky Mulvey for a primer on value investing, or trying to find out how much a company is worth, and buying them for less than that amount. They discuss:
- If theres even a difference between growth and value investing.
- Signs that a business is mispriced.
- How investors can find mispriced businesses.
- Why companies trade below their accounting-based worth.
- If there even needs to be a distinction between growth and value investing.
- Unpopular companies that may be worth your attention.
Companies discussed: META, WCC
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest:Rich Greifner
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Fri, 24 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Surprising Earnings, Conservative Management
There's a lot to analyze in this episode, including revenue to the upside, CEOs waving the caution flag, and Hobbits.
(0:21) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss:
- Nvidia's results and place in the AI universe
- Block surprising Wall Street with strong 4th-quarter revenue
- Mercadolibre's enviable free cash flow
- The latest from Walmart, Home Depot, Booking Holdings, Etsy, and Wayfair
(19:11) Emily and Jason continue the earnings analysis and discuss:
- Warner Bros. Discovery growing subscribers and cutting costs
- The latest from Intuit, Teladoc Health, Domino's Pizza, and Shake Shack
- Their most recent stock purchases
- Two stocks on their radar: Adobe and ANSYS
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Stocks discussed: NVDA, WMT, SQ, HD, BKNG, ETSY, MELI, W, INTU, TDOC, WBD, DPZ, TWLO, SPOT, NKE, SHAK, ADBE, ANSS
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Emily Flippen
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 23 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Etsy's "Jedi Mind Trick"
There's a lot of three-year comparisons getting thrown around. Is that what investors should focus on?
(1:00) Dylan Lewis and Tim Beyers discuss:
- Etsy's short-term and long-term story.
- The growth levers for Etsy moving forward.
- The trends picking up Nvidia and the hype baked into its rally.
- One shiny, distraction for investors watching the chipmaker.
Plus, (19:02) Maya Lau, host of the podcast "Other People's Pockets" joins Sierra Baldwin to discuss her new show and what she's learned from having conversations about salary, economic class, and careers.
Companies discussed: ETSY, NVDA
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Sierra Baldwin, Maya Lau
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks, Annie Franks
Wed, 22 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000What Happened To Intel?
In late January CEO Pat Gelsinger assured Wall Street that Intel was "committed" to its dividend. Today that commitment changed.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Intel cutting its dividend by 65%
- Gelsinger's potential rationale for the cut
- How else the company plans to invest the money
(8:00) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer more of your questions about home buying, pensions, and investing strategy.
Companies discussed: INTC, AMD
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Tue, 21 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +00002023: The Year of Cautious Guidance
If the management teams from Home Depot and Walmart had anything in common today, it was their guidance for the year ahead.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Home Depot shares falling 5% after its first revenue miss since 2019
- The capital allocation flex of raising wages and HD's dividend
- Walmart crushing its holiday quarter thanks to groceries
(11:15) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer your questions about investment fees, insurance, and saving in a Roth IRA.
Companies discussed: HD, WMT
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Sun, 19 Feb 2023 16:01:00 +0000PJ Vogt on AI, VR, and Tech Cycles
Once a technology is released into the wild, it doesnt go back in the bottle. Except in one instance.
PJ Vogt is the host of Crypto Island and an eponymous show, Weekly. You may have also heard him on Reply All or This American Life. Ricky Mulvey caught up with him to discuss:
- The wild present and future for artificial intelligence
- How virtual reality parallels early internet chat rooms
- Incentives and tradeoffs in the decarbonization movement
- The downfall of Flappy Bird
Companies mentioned: META, GOOG, GOOGL, MSFT, TSLA, NTOIY
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: PJ Vogt
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Sat, 18 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000iBuying, Real Estate Investing, Home Inventory
When Zillow and Opendoor stopped their iBuying programs, home buyers didnt find any deals. So, where did those homes go? Jamil Damji is the co-founder of KeyGlee, a real estate investment and wholesale company with more than 75 franchises. Hes also the star of Triple Digit Flip on A&E. Deidre Woollard caught up with Damji to discuss:
- Why housing supply remains low, and its implications for homebuilders
- How rents have stayed relatively stable
- One player thats fundamentally changed real estate investing
-The changing role of the landlord
Companies discussed: ZG, OPEN
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Jamil Damji
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Fri, 17 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000The (Wall Street) Hits Keep On Coming
It was another big week of earnings results (and surprises).
(0:21) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss:
- Shopify's guidance outweighing its results
- Airbnb nearly doubling profit expectations
- Record revenue for The Trade Desk
- Shares of Roku popping more than 25%
- The latest from Marriott, Twilio, Cisco Systems, and Zillow Group
(19:11) Jason and Ron keep the earnings coverage going and discuss:
- Boston Beer surprising Wall Street
- Outset Medical's latest results
- The state of Microsoft's bid to buy Activision Blizzard
- The latest from Coca-Cola, Roblox, Chipotle, and Alphabet
- Two stocks on their radar: Etsy and Paramount Resources
Looking for even more stock research and recommendations?
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Stocks discussed: SHOP, ABNB, TTD, MAR, TWLO, CSCO, ROKU, ZG, SAM, KO, OM, RBLX, ATVI, MSFT, CMG, SG, GOOG, ETSY, POU
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser
Engineers: Steve Broido, Rick Engdahl
Thu, 16 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000The Once & Future Zillow
After spending a year getting rid of its iBuying business, how should investors regard Zillow Group?
(0:21) Jim Mueller discusses:
- How Zillow is (in some ways) at a fresh starting point
- The growing skepticism around iBuying as a profitable business
- 1 thing to watch when Redfin reports after the closing bell
(9:25) Ricky Mulvey and Sanmeet Deo discuss companies that are flying under Wall Street's radar, in part because of where they're located.
Companies discussed: ZG, OPEN, RDFN, LULU, TSCO, SHAK, WINA
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Mueller, Sanmeet Deo
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Wed, 15 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Answers from Airbnb, Questions for Upstart
If revenge travel was supposed to slow down, then AirBnB hasn't noticed.
Dylan Lewis and Tim Beyers (0:15) discuss:
- A very healthy quarter for AirBnB, and how the travel company continues to grow its footprint.
- AirBnB's $1.5 billion "waste of capital."
- Upstart's not too bad quarter, and questionable use of its balance sheet.
- One thing to do whenever you buy a stock.
(17:02) Bill Mann and Ricky Mulvey look at Hindenburg Research's report on Adani Group, and a historic parallel that offers some insight for today.
Companies discussed: ABNB, UPST, ADANIENT
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Bill Mann
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Tue, 14 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Big Macro & Big Red
Once again the monthly CPI report got Wall Street's attention.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:- How the Federal Reserve is working without precise instruments
- Why no one wants surprises from the Fed
- Higher prices in the core division fueling Coca-Cola's 4th-quarter revenue
(12:00) In this blast-from-the-past segment from 2018, Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp celebrate Valentine's Day by discussing money as a source of conflict for couples.
Stocks discussed: KO, PEP
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Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl
Mon, 13 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Twilio's Layoffs, Spotify's Strategy
For the second time in five months, Twilio announces a round of layoffs.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- How Twilio is cutting costs as they grow
- What to watch when the company reports earnings on Wednesday afternoon
- Memorable ads from Super Bowl 57
(13:20) Ricky Mulvey talks with Bloomberg entertainment reporter Lucas Shaw about the state of Spotify's business, its podcasting strategy, and whether they need to raise subscription fees.
Stocks discussed: TWLO, BKNG, WDAY, GOOG, DEO, SPOT, AAPL
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Lucas Shaw
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Sun, 12 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000Beth Kindig on AI, Semiconductors, and Tech Cycles
ChatGPT is getting plenty of attention, but there are other uses for artificial intelligence that investors should watch. Beth Kindig is the lead technology analyst for the I/O fund. Deidre Woollard caught up with Kindig to discuss:
- Where we are in the cloud adoption cycle
- A key narrative playing out in semiconductor earnings
- What to learn from companies that went public too quickly
Companies discussed: MSFT, NVDA, TSM, META, AMD
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Beth Kindig
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Heather Horton
Sat, 11 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000Lies My Income Statement Told Me
Whats the point of reading a companys earnings report? Cant AI do that job?
Patrick Badolato, PhD, CPA is an Associate Professor at The University of Texas at Austin, McCombs School of Business where he teaches accounting and financial statement analysis. Badolato joined Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- How Walmart, Rent the Runway, and Peloton adjust earnings (and what it means for shareholders)
- Why investors should follow a companys operating income
- The pros and pitfalls of GAAP metrics
- A better way to count stock-based comp.
Companies Discussed: WMT, RENT, PTON
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Patrick Badolato
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Fri, 10 Feb 2023 20:58:00 +0000NFL Predictions, AI Competitions
Big changes could be coming to the NFL playoffs.
(0:21) Emily Flippen and Andy Cross discuss:
- The growing AI battle between Microsoft and Alphabet
- Lyft shares falling 35%
- PayPal CEO Dan Schulman announcing his retirement
- CVS Health buying a primary care business for $10 billion
- The latest from Disney, Cloudflare, Chipotle, and Pepsi
(19:11) Andrew Brandt, former NFL executive and director of Villanova University's Moorad Center of Sports Law, discusses the business health of the NFL, how the playoffs may change, and his prediction for a blowout Super Bowl 57.
(34:40) Andy and Emily share two stocks on their radar: Domino's Pizza and Boot Barn.
Looking for even more stock research and recommendations?
Check out the details on our Epic Bundle membership at Epicstart.Fool.com
Stocks discussed: MSFT, GOOG, DIS, LYFT, UBER, PYPL, NET, CMG, CVS, PEP, DPZ, BOOT
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Andy Cross, Andrew Brandt
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 09 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Disney Pops, Alphabet Drops
Disneys latest results and plans were just what Wall Street wanted to hear.
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- How the parks & experiences division drove Disneys 1st-quarter results
- ESPN+ being a bright spot among streaming properties
- Alphabet shares falling over a botched AI demo and concerns about Microsoft
(13:20) Just in time for Valentines Day, Jason Hall and Ryan Henderson engage in a bull vs. bear debate over Match Group.
Motley Fool premium members, click here to link your Motley Fool membership to a Spotify account and check out the latest episode of our exclusive podcast, Stock Advisor Roundtable!
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Stocks discussed: DIS, MSFT, GOOG, MTCH
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Tim Beyers, Jason Hall, Ryan Henderson
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Wed, 08 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Record Ad $$$ for SB 57
Companies are shelling out big bucks to get your attention during the big game.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Chipotle maintaining their stance on prices
- Dutch payment processor Adyen dealing with higher costs
- Uber posting a profit in the 4th quarter thanks to the company's investments
(10:30) Dylan Lewis talks with Ad Age editor Jeanine Poggi about some of the major brands looking to get your attention before, during, and after Super Bowl 57.
Stocks discussed: CMG, ADYEN, UBER, FOXA, COIN, NFLX, TAP, BUD
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Dylan Lewis, Jeannie Poggi
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Tue, 07 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000The AI Land Grab Has Started
Microsoft's AI event is only the latest sign of the hottest area of tech.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- CEO Satya Nadella hailing "a new day in search"
- Shares of C3AI, an enterprise AI platform company, doubling in the past five weeks
- Zoom Video announcing it's laying off 15% of employees
(12:00) Robert Brokamp talks with former Pittsburgh Steelers lineman Jonathan Scott about playing in Super Bowl 45, managing an irregular income, and other takeaways from his book "The Winning Playbook: Strategies for Life on and off the Field".
Stocks discussed: MSFT, GOOG, AMD, AI, ZM
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Robert Brokamp, Jonathan Scott
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Mon, 06 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Why Do Casinos Lose Money?
If the house always wins, why are gambling companies having trouble turning a profit?
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Privately-owned restaurant companies Cava Group and Panera Brands mulling a return to the public markets
- How Panera has evolved since its last time as a public company
- A key metric he's watching when Chipotle reports earnings on Tuesday afternoon
(9:40) Ricky Mulvey and Matt Frankel discuss the struggles gambling businesses having making money and one business breaking the trend.
Stocks discussed: CMG, PDYPY, MGM, DKNG, CHDN
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl
Sun, 05 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000Domonique Foxworth on NFL Owners, Investing, and Keys to the Big Game
What's more challenging: facing off against a wide receiver or a room full of NFL owners?
Domonique Foxworth made an impact on the field as an NFL cornerback for six season, and an impact off the field as the youngest player to be elected vice president of the NFL Players Association Executive Committee. Chris Hill caught up with him to discuss:
- Negotiating with NFL owners
- What led him to get his MBA from Harvard Business School
- The enduring popularity of the NFL
- What he will be watching during Super Bowl 57 to give him a sense of whether Philadelphia or Kansas City is in control of the game
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Domonique Foxworth
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Sat, 04 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000Stocks for the Long Run
If you want to know how the market could perform in the future, then look back a couple hundred years. Jeremy Schwartz is the Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree and co-host of the Behind the Markets podcast. Hes also co-author of the latest edition of the best-selling book, Stocks for the Long Run. Robert Brokamp caught up with Schwartz to discuss:
- Why dying industrial companies have beaten the broader market
- Managing cash in a higher interest rate climate
- How often investors should rebalance
- The data that the Federal Reserve may be misreading
Companies and investments discussed: MSFT, CVS, KO, DTH, AMZN, XOM, CVX, USFR
Host: Robert Brokamp
Guest: Jeremy Schwartz
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Annie Franks, Tim Sparks
Fri, 03 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Huge Jobs Report, Triple-A Earnings
Unemployment hit a 53-year low as Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet delivered their latest earnings reports.
(0:21) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss:
- Another interest rate hike and a surprising jobs report
- Apple's first sales drop since 2019
- Guidance overshadowing Amazon's holiday quarter
- Starbucks struggling outside the U.S.
- The latest from Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Exxon Mobil, and AMD
(19:11) Jason and Ron keep earnings-palooza going and discuss:
- McDonald's ending the fiscal year on a high note
- Match Group's disappointing results and layoff announcement
- The latest from Qualcomm, Peloton, and Snap
- Two stocks on their radar: Kinsale Capital Group and Samsara
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Stocks discussed: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, SBUX, META, XOM, INTC, AMD, MCD, QCOM, PTON, SNAP, MTCH, KNSL, IOT
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 02 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Meta Soars
For the first time in a long time, Meta Platforms gave shareholders a reason to smile.
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- 4th-quarter revenue coming in higher than expected for Meta
- That $40 billion share buyback plan
- Why AMD is demonstrating not all semiconductor chip companies are alike
(11:00) How did Planet Fitness get the attention of the Federal Trade Commission? Ricky Mulvey and Sanmeet Deo discuss whether the low-cost gym deserves a spot on your watch list.
Stocks discussed: META, INTC, AMD, PLNT
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Tim Beyers, Sanmeet Deo
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Wed, 01 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000Peloton's Turning Point?
It's been a rough 12 months for Peloton, but the fitness company just offered shareholders a glimmer of hope.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Peloton's 2nd-quarter revenue surprising to the upside
- A sluggish digital ad market hurting Snap's 4th-quarter results
- How Snapchat+ could be a potential lever for management to pull
(11:00) Jason Moser and Matt Frankel discuss the 30th anniversary of exchange-traded funds and how stock investors use ETFs today.
Stocks discussed: PTON, SNAP, GOOG, GOOGL, SPY, VNQ, RSP, CIBR
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Tue, 31 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Record Profits? Record Profits.
The list of companies who had a more profitable 2022 than Exxon Mobil is decidedly short.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- McDonald's growing global sales by $20 billion during the pandemic
- Exxon Mobil racking up an annual profit of more than $55 billion
- Why Wall Street seemed disappointed by a share buyback plan smaller than Chevron's
(10:40) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp discuss reasons to be both uplifted (and depressed) about the economy, debt, and pandas.
Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.
Stocks discussed: MCD, XOM, AAPL, MSFT, CVX
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Mon, 30 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Gen Z & Millennials Are Driving AmEx Higher
If American Express had a problem with an aging demographic, it looks like that problem is being addressed.
(0:20) Jason Moser discusses:
- Shares of AmEx popping 15% in two days off of strong guidance for 2023
- How younger customers are the majority of the companys growth story
- Why hes going to be watching Amazons revenue when it reports earnings on Thursday
(11:00) Tim White and Tim Beyers discuss the implications of Microsofts $10 billion investment in ChatGPT.
Companies discussed: AXP, GS, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Tim Beyers, Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Sun, 29 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000Howard Marks on China, Risk, and Interest Rates
If a key to personal happiness is low expectations, then a key to investing may be realistic expectations. Howard Marks is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. Motley Fool Director of Small Cap Research Bill Mann caught up with Marks to discuss:
- Why higher interest rates created a Sea Change for investors
- Chinas economic miracle, and its impact on inflation
- Lessons from the era of easy money
- What life insurance companies can teach investors about risk
To read Howard Marks' latest memo, click here: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change
Host: Bill Mann
Guest: Howard Marks
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Annie Franks
Sat, 28 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000Lessons from Buffetts Investing Framework
Can you think of any stocks in the S&P 500 that will have higher earnings five years from now? Are you 90% confident in your prediction? If you have a good answer to these questions, then you might be able to start investing like Warren Buffett. Motley Fool Senior Analyst John Rotonti joins Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- What one of Buffetts lieutenants revealed about Berkshires stock-buying framework
- How investors can use the framework, and why so few stocks fit
- One company that may fulfill Berkshires criteria
Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, KO, USB, NVR
Interview with Todd Combs -https://investmentmanagementinsights.substack.com/p/graham-and-dodd-annual-breakfast
Berkshires 1986 Letter to Shareholders: Chairman's Letter -https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1986.html
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: John Rotonti
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Fri, 27 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000GDP, Tesla, FinTech, and "Burrito Season"
As much as we love stocks, sometimes the Big Macro really does drive the market.
(0:21) Emily Flippen and Ron Gross discuss:
- Stronger-than-expected GDP sending stocks higher
- Tesla ending the year on a high note
- Chevron's record profits and huge buyback plan
- Visa and Mastercard delivering strong profits (again)
- The latest from Intel, Microsoft, Southwest Airlines, and Johnson & Johnson
(19:11) Deidre Woollard talks with Corrado Russo, head of global securities at Hazelview Investments, about real estate, REITs, and a part of the market investors might want to avoid.
(30:00) Emily and Ron discuss Chipotle's plan to hire 15,000 workers for "burrito season" and share two stocks on their radar: Mercedes Benz Group and Domino's Pizza.
Looking for stocks trading at a discount?
Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.
Stocks discussed: TSLA, INTC, CVX, MSFT, LUV, MA, V, JNJ, REXR, CMG, MBGYY, DPZ
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross, Deidre Woollard, Corrado Russo
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 26 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Netflix, Comcast, Southwest Airlines
If you attempted to fly Southwest Airlines over the holidays, you're not going to be surprised by their latest earnings results.
(0:20) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Southwest's $220 million loss
- Why the airline has "a more fundamental problem"
- Comcast's growing subscribers (and costs) in its streaming service, Peacock
(11:00) Ricky Mulvey talks with Catie Peiper about Netflix's international expansion and programming strategy.
Companies discussed: LUV, CMCSA, NFLX, WBD
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Catie Peiper
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Wed, 25 Jan 2023 21:10:00 +0000Eyes on the Cloud
Investors are paying up for stability, as big tech growth slows down. (0:15) Dylan Lewis and Motley Fool Chief Investment Officer Andy Cross discuss:
- Microsoft's quarter, and lower growth expectations for its cloud business.
- What long-term investors can expect from Microsoft.
- The Department of Justice's suit against Alphabet, and a shifting regulatory environment.
- Kimberly Clark's "less than stellar" quarter.
Plus, (16:25) Motley Fool Canada's Jim Gillies joins Ricky Mulvey to give the bull case for one of the most heavily shorted stocks of 2022.
Companies discussed: MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, TTD, KMB, BIG
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Andy Cross, Jim Gillies
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Tue, 24 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +00002 Blue Chips Under Pressure
How long will macroeconomic pressures persist in 2023?
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Johnson & Johnson's 4th-quarter profits falling 25%
- Why he likes the company's balance of pharma and medtech
- 3M's challenges and why an increase in consumer-facing solutions may be a better route
(10:40) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer your questions about saving for retirement, bonds, and more.
Looking for stocks trading at a discount? Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.
Stocks discussed: JNJ, MMM, BND
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Mon, 23 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Big Banks vs. Apple & PayPal
Major banks are teaming up like The Avengers to take on powerful forces: Apple Wallet and PayPal.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Spotify becoming the latest company to announce layoffs
- Seven large banks combining forces to create a digital wallet product
- How and why Apple and PayPal have such a large lead in this industry
(12:40) Asit Sharma and Rickey Mulvey discuss corporate governance and an under-the-radar pop culture company going through some fundamental changes.
Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.
Stocks discussed: SPOT, WFC, BAC, JPM, COF, PNC, USB, TFC, AAPL, PYPL, DIS, MSGS, PG, FNKO
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Sun, 22 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000GEs Legacy & Lessons for Investors
You wouldn't know it from its recent struggles, but for most of the 20th century General Electric was one of the most important companies (and stocks) in America. William D. Cohan is a founding partner of digital news business Puck and the author of Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of an American Icon. Cohan joined Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- The mythology behind General Electrics birth
- How corporations struggle mightily with CEO succession
- Jack Welch and the religion of earnings consistency
- Why he believes a combination between Warner Brothers Discovery and NBCUniversal is inevitable
Companies discussed: GE, DIS, WBD, CMCSA
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: William D. Cohan
Engineer: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks, Annie Franks
Sat, 21 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000Real Estate Trends w/ Opportunity
The broad real estate market underperformed the S&P 500 in 2022, but the upside is investors can find some cheaper opportunities in a cyclical sector. Deidre Woollard and Motley Fool Contributor Matt Frankel discuss:
- How REITs differ from stocks
- Publicly traded vs. private REITs
- One office REIT that's evolving
- Ways to spot a yield trap
- REITs benefiting from e-commerce trends
Companies/REITs discussed: ESRT, SPG, PLD, GOOG, GOOGL, META, O, SKT, KIM, VNQ, EWRE, IIPR
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Fri, 20 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Big Tech Layoffs, Signs of Housing Trouble
Alphabet and Microsoft are laying off a combined 22,000 employees. Is Apple next?
(0:21) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- The ripple effect of Big Tech Layoffs
- Netflix founder Reed Hastings stepping down from his co-CEO role
- Cancellation rates soaring in one segment of the housing market
- Differing views on interest rates from two major bank CEOs
- The latest from Procter & Gamble, Nordstrom, and holiday retail data
(19:11) John Rotonti talks with Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, about what history can teach about the current market cycle and sectors that may hold opportunities for investors.
(33:30) Jason and Matt answer listener questions about CEOs they'd like to shadow for a day and under-the-radar trends, and share two stocks on their radar: Roper Technologies and Regions Financial.
Motley Fool Stock Advisor is open to new members for just $99 a year.
Join the hundreds of thousands of investors in Stock Advisor by going to www.fool.com/intro.
Stocks discussed: MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, NFLX, KBH, JWN, PG, JPM, MS, BX, ETSY, SBUX, ROP, RF
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, John Rotonti, Jurrien Timmer
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 19 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000China, India, and the Question of Population Growth
Data this week suggest India is about to pass China as the world's most populous country.
(0:25) Bill Mann discusses:
- Procter & Gamble bumping up against the limits of its pricing powers
- Why China still has a demand problem
- How companies in the U.S. are moving some operations from China to Vietnam and India
(11:25) Sanmeet Deo talks with Dexcom CEO Kevin Sayer about his company's work in continuous glucose monitors and a major shift affecting the future of healthcare.
Stocks discussed: PG, CMG, AAPL, SBUX, DXCM
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Sanmeet Deo, Kevin Sayer
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Wed, 18 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Prices Falling, More Tech Layoffs
As many expected, Microsoft announced the layoff of 5% of its employees.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- The Producer Price Index falling 0.5%, much more than economists were expecting
- Microsoft's layoffs, and whether Alphabet will be next
- Why he's expecting more questions about layoffs this earnings season, but also more talk of where companies are investing
(9:25) Is Lululemon Athletica facing short-term headwinds or long-term challenges? Ryan Henderson and Jamie Louko go head to head in our latest Bull vs. Bear debate!
Our flagship service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year.
To access this exclusive offer go to www.fool.com/intro.
Stocks discussed: MSFT, CRM, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, LULU, NKE
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Ryan Henderson, Jamie Louko
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Tue, 17 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Goldman Sachs Drags Down the Dow
Goldman Sachs Drags Down the Dow
The investment bank suffered its worst earnings miss in a decade.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- 4th-quarter profits for Goldman Sachs falling 66%
- How investments in Marcus and the Apple Card partnership haven't paid off yet
- Disney's blunt response to activist investor Nelson Peltz
(11:00) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Stephanie Marini, certified financial planner, about what investors need to know how The Secure 2.0 Act affects savings and retirement.
Looking to get a jump start on your 2023 financial goals?
Our flagship service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year!
Access this special offer by visiting www.fool.com/intro.
Stocks discussed: GS, DIS
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Stephanie Marini
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Sun, 15 Jan 2023 16:00:00 +0000Earnings Watch & Market Valuation w/ Liz Ann Sonders
"Guidance becomes even more important in this environment."
Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to offer her perspective on what investors should be watching this earnings season, as well as:
- The unlikely start to her career in investing
- Key macroeconomic data she and her team at Schwab are focused on
- Her question about crypto
- One idea to improve the odds of financial independence
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Liz Ann Sonders
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Heather Horton
Sat, 14 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000Small Caps w/ Strong Brands
You dont put premium gas in a rental car. And that attitude is why we like to find companies with a high degree of inside ownership. Bill Mann, director of small-cap research at The Motley Fool, joins Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- How to think about allocation for smaller companies
- Key small cap metrics to watch
- Boring businesses that warrant more attention
- A closer look at a real estate brokerage, a coffee supplier, and a Bitcoin holding firm that masquerades as a software company
Companies discussed: CMG, WDFC, GGG, TREX, RDFN, WEST, MSTR
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Bill Mann
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Fri, 13 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Dry January, Big Banks, and Trouble at Disney HQ
Earnings season officially kicked off!
(0:21) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss:
- Inflation falling for the 6th month in a row
- The common view Jamie Dimon and Brian Moynihan have on the U.S. economy
- Disneys fight with activist investor Nelson Peltz
- Starbucks and News Corp becoming the latest companies announcing a return to offices
- The latest from Delta Air Lines and Outset Medical
(19:11) David Henkes, senior principal at Technomic, shares how the restaurant industry is recession resistant, the rise of drive-through, and the impact of Dry January on restaurants.
(36:15) Ron and Jason share three investments on their radar: Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF, Industrial Select Sector Fund, and S&P Global Infrastructure ETF.
Motley Fool premium members, click here to link your Motley Fool membership to a Spotify account and begin listening to this exclusive new podcast!
If you're not a member, you can get a preview of the show and learn how to get access here on Spotify!
Stocks discussed: JPM, BAC, WFC, CITI, DIS, NKE, SBUX, NWS, NWSA, DAL, AAL, OM, MCD, CMG, SAM, CIBR, XLI, GII
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser, David Henkes
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 12 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Walmart's Tech, One Activist's Fight
Walmart isn't the first company that comes to mind when thinking about technology platforms, but that's not stopping the retailer from expanding.
(0:21) Emily Flippen discusses:
- Nelson Peltz and Trian Fund Management pushing for a seat on Disney's board
- Why Peltz is "a day late and a dollar short"
- Salesforce partnering up with Walmart
(11:30) Ricky Mulvey talks with Jamie Harris, CFO of freight booking company RXO, about what his business saw during the holidays and how RXO is disrupting a surprising industry.
Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.
Stocks discussed: DIS, NKE, WMT, CRM, RXO
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Emily Flippen, Jamie Harris
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 11 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Wells Fargo Steps Back
What does it say when a market leader steps back from.leading?
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Wells Fargo, once the biggest player in mortgages, announces it is making a strategic shift
- The role that the current state of housing plays in Wells Fargo's decision
- Our brand new podcast, Stock Advisor Roundtable
(10:15) Tim Beyers and Tim White take a closer look at "key person risk".
Motley Fool premium members, click here to link your Motley Fool membership to a Spotify account and begin listening to this exclusive new podcast!
And if you're not a member, you can get a preview of the show and learn how to get access here on Spotify!
Stocks discussed: WFC, CRM, SFIX, GOOG, GOOGL
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Tim Beyers, Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Tue, 10 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Stocks For Chinas New Bull Market
A bull market in the MSCI Asia Pacific index doesnt mean investors should make rash investment decisions.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- How U.S. companies can be a better way to play Chinas reopening
- Jay Powells latest speech reinforcing the Feds focus on stability
- The potential for other CEOs following Bob Igers lead as Disney employees return to offices starting March 1
(12:30) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp share tips for making this year a healthier and wealthier one.
Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.
Stocks discussed: BABA, TCEHY, MCD, SBUX, KO, LVMHF, DIS
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Jackie Pecquex, Catie Peiper, Nick Lutz
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 09 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000"No company is immune."
A major investment bank became the latest (but not the last) to announce layoffs.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Goldman Sachs cutting nearly 7% of its staff
- Lululemon shares falling after the company lowered gross margin guidance
- Why inventory levels will be a key retail metric to watch this upcoming earnings season
(11:00) Kirsten Guerra and Lou Whiteman engage in Bull vs. Bear debate over Teladoc Health.
Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.
Stocks discussed: GS, LULU ANF, AEO, TDOC, AMZN
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Kirsten Guerra, Lou Whiteman
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rich Engdahl
Sun, 08 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000Tom Gardner and Morgan Housel on Inflation, Tesla, and Starbucks
Everything feels unprecedented if you dont study history, and 2022 wasnt unique for the stock market. Morgan Housel is the best-selling author of The Psychology of Money. He joined Motley Fool co-founder and CEO Tom Gardner for a conversation about:
- Why cash is a better hedge against inflation than many believe
- Parallels between the 2022 stock market and the dot-com bust of the early 2000s
- What Tesla investors can learn from Starbucks past decline
Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, TSLA, SBUX
Host: Tom Gardner
Guest: Morgan Housel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl
Sat, 07 Jan 2023 17:00:00 +0000Diagnosing Stock Drops
Just because a stock lost 98% of its value doesnt mean it's cheap. Sometimes the market becomes efficient.
Asit Sharma joins Ricky Mulvey to look at some justifiable reasons why stocks dropped last year and which strong businesses that may have been swept up in the tide. They discuss:
- Carvanas boom and bust, and the takeaways for investors
- If Zoom has a sticky product
- How Roku is addressing a tougher advertisement landscape
- Metas valuation, and questions about its leadership
- Mindset advice if you want to be a contrarian investor
Companies discussed: LULU, ZM, MSFT, CVNA, ROKU, NFLX, META
Aswath Damodarans blog on Meta:
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2022/11/meta-lesson-1-corporate-governance.html
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Asit Sharma
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Fri, 06 Jan 2023 21:15:00 +00003 CEOs Walk Into A Bar
On a shortened week of trading for investors, three CEOs dominated the headlines.
(0:21) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- Layoff announcements and a sober prediction from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella
- The market's positive reaction to the December jobs report
- Key things they're watching in the tech industry
- Newest unveilings at CES in Las Vegas
- The latest from Stitch Fix and Constellation Brands
(19:11) Malcolm Ethridge, CFP and host of "The Tech Money Podcast", weighs in with predictions of two more interest rate hikes, why "Mega Cap Tech" is the key to a stock market rally, and what he's watching for this earnings season.
(34:00) Matt and Jason discuss Bed Bath & Beyond's real estate footprint as the company nears bankruptcy, and share two stocks on their radar: Amazon and Bentley Systems.
Looking to get a jump start on your 2023 financial goals?
Our flagship service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year!
Access this special offer by visiting www.fool.com/intro.
Stocks discussed: CRM, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, SFIX, STZ, ROKU, SONY, HMC, GOOG, GOOGL, SPOT, BBBY, BSY
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Malcolm Ethridge
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 05 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Value Opportunities for Investors
Value Opportunities for Investors
Sometimes cheap stocks are an opportunity, and sometimes stocks are cheap for a reason.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Amazon laying off 18,000 employees
- Whether layoffs are a bad sign or an indication a company is being honest with itself
- The writing on the (bond market) wall for Bed Bath & Beyond
(11:11) Ron Gross provides an overview of value investing, discusses why the current environment favors value stocks, and shares a few ideas for investors seeking to build up the value side of their portfolio.
Stocks discussed: AMZN, CRM, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, BBBY, TGT, COST, WMT, BBY, CAT, DE, NEE, SO, NUE, VMC
The Motley Fool's top stock-picking service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year!
To join now visit www.fool.com/intro to access this special introductory offer.
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Ron Gross
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Wed, 04 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +00002 Dividend Stocks To Watch
Salesforce is laying off 10% of its workforce. Is it a sign of things to come in the tech industry?
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- How Salesforce's recent acquisitions are the reason layoffs shouldn't be surprising
- Why HubSpot's next move is one of the most interesting things in tech
- One tech business bucking the trend by increasing its hiring
(8:22) Matt Argersinger previews the year for dividend stock investors, discusses why the payout radio is a key metric to watch, and shares two dividend stocks he believes are looking more attractive these days.
Stocks discussed: CRM, HUBS, ASAN, MNDY, SCHD, VIG, MTN, SWK, EXR, LII
The Motley Fool's top stock-picking service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year!
To join now visit www.fool.com/intro to access this special introductory offer.
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Ron Gross
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Tue, 03 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000Time To Hit The Gym Stocks?
'Tis the season for investing in your physical fitness.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The relative strength of Planet Fitness
- How "exercise at home" has been around for decades
- Amazon actually testing flying drone deliveries in California and Texas
(13:45) Dylan Lewis and Asit Sharma discuss what growth stock investors should be considering this year, as well as one business in particular with tailwinds (despite a tough environment).
Stocks discussed: PLNT, PTON, AMZN, CRWD
Looking for more investing ideas?
Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Dylan Lewis, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Mon, 02 Jan 2023 12:00:00 +00002023 Investing Blueprint
It's the perfect time to review your financial plan for investing in 2023.
(0:21) Andy Cross discusses:
- His optimism after the worst year for investors since 2008
- The potential for 2023 to be "a stock picker's market"
- Why financials and healthcare are two of the industries he's watching for opportunities
(10:15) Robert Brokamp weighs in on whether all investors should more seriously consider bonds, why retirees might be able to increase their safe withdrawal rates, and the biggest asset younger investors have this year.
Looking for more investing ideas? Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Andy Cross, Robert Brokamp
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Fri, 30 Dec 2022 18:00:00 +000027 Stocks for 2023
CEOs on the hot seat, stocks in the spotlight, and reckless predictions!
(0:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- Industries and trends investors should be watching
- Why the CEOs of Amazon, Starbucks, and Twilio could be on the hot seat
- Two stocks poised for upside
- Keeping online streaming and BNPL businesses on a short leash
- Not being worried about Blackstone, Home Depot, and Johnson & Johnson
(19:11) Jason and Matt continue our 2023 preview with:
- Potential surprises for investors
- Why Live Nation and nCino could both be acquired
- 1 trend and 1 stock that investors will have to be very patient with
- Reckless business predictions involving crypto, Elon Musk, and Warren Buffett
- Two stocks on their radar: Topgolf Callaway and Easterly Government Properties
Want even more stock ideas? Get a free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report by going to www.fool.com/report.
Stocks discussed: ROKU, GOOGL, PARA, DIS, NFLX, AMZN, TWLO, SBUX, STAG, TTD, WBD, PYPL, SQ, BX, HD, JNJ, CRM, PLD, CRWD, STWD, LYV, NCNO, APPH, COIN, BRK.A, MODG, DEA
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 29 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Do You Really Want To Be An Investor?
(0:21) Chris Hill discusses:
- What's coming up on the show in early January
- Seth Rogen's revelation about stand-up comedy
- What it takes to be an investor
Host: Chris Hill
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Wed, 28 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Don't Bet Against Behemoths
Disruption is not a given, nor is it easy.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- How Visa and Mastercard fared in a year dominated by crypto news
- Why fortress balance sheets will be an even bigger asset in the new year
- Leaders he's watching in 2023
Stocks mentioned: V, MA, MSFT, APPL, GOOG, GOOGL, HD, LOW
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Tue, 27 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Global Markets to Watch in 2023
Outside the U.S. there are opportunities for investors in the new year.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Countries producing raw materials (and video games)
- What needs to change in China to get him more interested in companies like Alibaba and JD.com
- Why investors should be watching Canada and Norway
Stocks mentioned: JD, BABA, TCEHY
Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Sat, 24 Dec 2022 10:00:00 +0000How Much Does Santa Weigh?
We're taking a break from investing and stock talk to discuss:
- Santa's actual weight
- Murder's surprising popularity as an entertainment device
- Best movie Santas
- Alcoholic holiday drinks
- "Cereal Derangement Syndrome"
- Fascination with the NY Post's front page
- Rule changes we would make in the NBA, NHL, and MLB
- Who should narrate a classic McSweeney's essay
To cast your vote for your favorite sports rule change, email podcasts@fool.com.
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Bill Mann
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Fri, 23 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Becky Quick, Mark Cuban
We're easing into Christmas weekend with highlights from two of our favorite interviews of 2022.
(0:21) Becky Quick discusses:
- Helping The Wall Street Journal leap from print to the web
- Making the switch from the Journal to CNBC
- Her unexpected introduction to Warren Buffett
- Behind the scenes at CNBC
(19:11) Mark Cuban discusses:
- His new health care venture, Cost Plus Drugs
- Competing with major healthcare companies
- Advice for potential NFL owner Jeff Bezos
- The appeal of pickleball!
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Becky Quick, Mark Cuban
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Thu, 22 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Following Buffett, Bull vs. Bear: Etsy
What's the downside to using public filings to mirror Berkshire-Hathaway's investments?
(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- The strength of Berkshire-Hathaway's underlying businesses
- Warren Buffett's less-than-perfect investing track record
- How investors cannot get the exact same price as the Berkshire-Hathaway investment managers
(10:20) Dylan Lewis and Ricky Mulvey engage in a bull vs. bear debate over e-commerce platform Etsy.
Stocks mentioned: BRK.A, BRK.B, ETSY, EBAY
Holiday Music: Merry, Merry Christmas by Keb Mo
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Dylan Lewis
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Wed, 21 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Nike, FedEx, and The Fed
The shipping giant has a demand problem, while Nike may be out of the woods.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- FedEx cutting $1 billion in costs to make up for weak demand
- UPS solidly outperforming FedEx (for years)
- Nike getting past their inventory problems and increasing digital sales
(10:30) John Rotonti and Ricky Mulvey analyze the implications of interest rates being higher for longer and one company that's benefiting.
Stocks mentioned: FDX, UPS, NKE, BX
Holiday Music: Looks Like A Cold, Cold Winter by Ingrid Michaelson
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, John Rotonti
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Tue, 20 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Is TikTok Too Big To Ban?
The digital advertising landscape is shifting.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Google's and Meta Platform's collective share of the digital ad market shrinking
- Amazon leading the charge in e-commerce ad players
- TikTok's impact on the ad industry and whether it is "unbannable" in the U.S.
(8:50) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp analyze the ins-and-outs of buying bonds.
Stocks mentioned: GOOG, GOOGL, META, AMZN, SPG, BND, BLK, IBDN, IBDR
Holiday Music: How Do You Spell Channukkahh? by The LeeVees
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Mon, 19 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Barron's Top Stock Picks
There's a value approach to Barron's annual list, and we've got some thoughts.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The case for traditional value stocks like Bank of America and Berkshire-Hathaway
- Inclusion of Big Tech companies like Alphabet and Amazon
- Why attractive valuation isn't enough to get us interested in Madison Square Garden Sports
(12:45) Jason and Matt Frankel review some bold predictions they made last year and share some predictions about mortgage rates, inflation, and stocks in the year ahead.
Stocks mentioned: AA, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, BAC, BRK.A, BRK.B, CMCSA, DAL, DIS, MSGS, MDT, TSLA, TOL
Holiday Music: 8 Days (of Hanukkah) by Sharon Jones & the Dap-Kings
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Sun, 18 Dec 2022 16:00:00 +0000Aswath Damodaran on the Fed, Inflation, and Valuation
If you're impatient, then value investing's probably not for you. But for those interested, there's probably no one better to listen to than Aswath Damodaran, professor of corporate finance and valuation at the Stern School of Business at New York University.
Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner talks with the Dean of Valuation about:
- Inflations new questions for investors
- The most important investor you can learn from
- Incentives, correlations, and costs in ESG scoring
Stocks mentioned: MO, BLK
If you're a member of any Motley Fool service you can access the full conversation here:
https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/4056/coverage/2022/08/31/navigating-inflation-behavioral-investing-and-mark/
Host: Tom Gardner
Guest: Aswath Damodaran
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan, Tim Sparks
Sat, 17 Dec 2022 17:01:00 +0000Same Data, Different Conclusions
Even if a soft landing is possible, investors may not want one. Plus, how do you even know if a soft landing is happening?
Liz Young is the head of Investment Strategy for SoFi. Motley Fool editor Mary Long caught up with Young to talk about:
- Macro data thats meaningful to stock investors
- How to build an investment thesis
- One sector thats been unfairly punished
- The likelihood of a recession in 2023
Host: Mary Long
Guest: Liz Young
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Fri, 16 Dec 2022 21:19:00 +0000Best & Worst of 2022
Time to hand out some awards!
(0:21) Ron Gross, Emily Flippen, and Jason Moser discuss:
- The biggest business/investing stories of the year
- Who gets their vote for CEO of 2022
- Some of the dumbest investments of the year
- How semiconductors and a stock hitting an all-time high flew under Wall Street's radar
(19:11) Ron, Emily, and Jason continue our year-in-review special with:
- Surprising years from Salesforce, Axon Enterprise, and Campbell Soup
- Things they didn't have on their 2022 Bingo Cards
- New investing discoveries
- Three stocks on their radar: Booz Allen Hamilton, NextEra Energy, and Topgolf Callaway
Stocks discussed: TSLA, TXN, ULTA, BBBY, K, CASY, OM, AXON, CPB, CRM, BRK.A, BRK.B, DIS, DOCU, NFLX, BAH, NEE, MODG
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Emily Flippen, Jason Moser
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 15 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Are College Bowl Sponsorships Worth It?
With 42 college bowl games on tap, are companies spending smart money to sponsor the event?
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The economics of bowl game sponsorship
- Why local businesses may have an edge
- Kellogg sponsoring three bowl games, two of them with their Cheez-It brand
(12:45) Tim White and Tim Beyers take a closer look at user-interface design and which companies get it right (and wrong).
Stocks mentioned: AZO, COF, SAM, K, LYFT, HUBS, CRM, SNAP, AAPL, WDAY
Holiday Music: The Hanukkah Waltz by Bela Fleck and the Flecktones
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Tim White, Tim Beyers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Wed, 14 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Tesla Shareholders Are Nervous (They Should Be)
Tesla shares have been cut in half since April 14, the day Elon Musk announced his intention to buy Twitter.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Delta Airlines projecting financial optimism in 2023
- Moderna shares up 20% this week after promising results from a skin cancer treatment trial in combination with Merck
- Tesla shareholders being more nervous than before due to (among other things) Twitter taking more of CEO Elon Musk's time and attention
(12:45) Ricky Mulvey talks with Jack Caporal from The Ascent about the most popular financial New Year's resolutions and tips for keeping them.
For more data on The Ascent's survey on financial resolutioins, click here: https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/financial-new-years-resolutions/
Stocks mentioned: DAL, MRNA, MRK, TSLA
Holiday Music: White Christmas by Sharon Jones & the Dap-Kings
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Jack Caporal
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Tue, 13 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Inflation Cooling, SBF Arrested
November's CPI rose just 0.1%, lower than economists were expecting.
(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- How inflation in the US compares to other countries
- Why some Nasdaq stocks have been "brutalized"
- Sam Bankman-Fried, co-founder of FTX, being arrested and charged with (among other things) conspiracy and securities fraud
(12:45) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer listeners questions about how many stocks to own, financial aid, and saving for kids.
Stocks mentioned: STLJF
Holiday Music: Five Pound Box Of Money by Pearl Bailey
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Mon, 12 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000London Calling Microsoft
A new 10-year deal with the London Stock Exchange sends shares of Microsoft higher.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The "win-win" deal between the two sides
- How cloud services like Azure and AWS are becoming utilities
- The short, not-so-happy public life of Weber Grill
- Peter Lynch's advice being a starting point (not a finish line) for investors
(12:30) Ricky Mulvey talks with Eddie Alterman, host of the "Car Show" podcast, about the used car market and how GM is competing with Ferrari.
Stocks mentioned: MSFT, LDNXF, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, WEBR, COOK, GM
Holiday Music: Sugar & Booze by Ana Gasteyer
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Eddie Alterman
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Sun, 11 Dec 2022 16:00:00 +0000The ROI of Design
Great design can reward a companys shareholders, but good enough doesnt do much. Mauro Porcini is the Chief Design Officer of PepsiCo and the author of The Human Side of Innovation: The Power of People in Love with People. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Porcini to discuss:
- Why investors should watch companies with great design thinkers
- The strategy behind limited-edition releases
- How wearables could change what we eat and drink
Companies mentioned: PEP, MMM, AAPL
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Mauro Porcini
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Sat, 10 Dec 2022 17:01:00 +0000REITs, Homebuilders, and the Return of Las Vegas
You can think of real estate in a lot of different ways, but at the end of the day it's just space. And that space is going through a lot of change. Interest rates are going higher, homes are getting more expensive, and companies continue to struggle with hybrid-work plans. Deidre Woollard and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- Lesser-known office REITs that may be presenting opportunities for investors
- Homebuilders facing headwinds
- Lessons from Las Vegass comeback
Companies mentioned: SLG, ARE, HPP, DEA, TOL, PHM, HD, LOW, SHW, POOL, SPG, VICI, KIM, EPR
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Matt Argersinger
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Fri, 09 Dec 2022 21:10:00 +0000USA vs. Microsoft
It's time to lawyer up!
(0:21) Andy Cross and Ron Gross discuss:
- Wholesale prices rising higher than expected
- Costco's surprisingly disappointing quarter
- DocuSign ending the year on a positive note
- Casey's General Stores hitting an all-time high thanks in part to beer cheese pizza
- The latest from Lululemon, RH, Campbell's Soup, and Chewy
(19:11) Rachel Warren talks with Jay Jacobs from BlackRock about megatrends to watch in healthcare, infrastructure, and electric vehicles.
(30:20) Andy and Ron discuss the FTC suing Microsoft over its proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard, and share two stocks on their radar: Stanley Black & Decker and Houlihan Lokey.
Stocks discussed: COST, LULU, RH, DOCU, CPB, CHWY, CASY, BLK, MSFT, ATVI, SWK, HLI
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Andy Cross, Ron Gross, Rachel Warren, Jay Jacobs
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 08 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Gas, China, Food & Beverage Stocks
Inflation is one of the big stories of the year, but consumers are finally getting relief at the pump.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- The price of gas being lower than it was a year ago
- Ripple effects (positive and negative) from lower gas prices
- China stocks getting a short-term boost from the prospects of Covid restrictions being relaxed
(9:45) Ricky Mulvey joins Asit to take a closer look at which food and beverage trends are gaining (and losing) steam.
Stocks mentioned: BILI, JD, BYND, KO, SAM, KR
Holiday Music: Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) by Dropkick Murphys
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Wed, 07 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Another New Trend from Robinhood?
After helping to drive trading costs to $0, Robinhood offers a financial incentive for IRA investing.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Whether Robinhood's 1% match on new IRA accounts will force other financial institutions to do the same
- If the new service from the still-unprofitable Robinhood will reward shareholders
- A new survey from Forbes Advisor about the increase in buy-now, pay-later activity and what it bodes for consumer savings in 2023
(10:25) Asit Sharma talks with Endava CEO John Cottrell about digital payment trends and differentiating from the competition.
Stocks mentioned: HOOD, DAVA, WISE
Holiday Music: Christmas Will Work It Out by Paola Bennet
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma, John Cottrell
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl
Tue, 06 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Getting Kids to Invest
You might not expect to find a multi-bagger stock in aftermarket automotive parts. But, that's exactly what one retailer has accomplished.
(0:44) Deidre Woollard and Jim Gillies discuss:
- Europe's energy crunch, and why Russia isn't playing along with price caps.
- Investing in economic cycles as a contrarian.
- Why AutoZone is "one of the best managed companies and capital allocation stories."
Plus,(17:31)Motley Fool Contributor Brian Withers joins Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp to discuss how to encourage kids to invest when time is on their side.
Companies mentioned: AZO, DIS, CMG
Holiday Music: Disco Christmas by Universal Robot
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Brian Withers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Mon, 05 Dec 2022 21:15:00 +0000The Evolution of Max
Executives at Warner Bros Discovery are planning to unveil a new streaming service combining the assets of HBO Max and Discovery+.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- How CEO David Zaslav's focus on profitability could pay off
- WBD's underrated library of content
- The rise of FAST (Free Ad-Supported TV)
(12:30) Andy Cross talks with Airbnb co-founder Nat Blecharczyk about the latest improvements for the home-sharing platform.
Stocks mentioned: WBD, NFLX, DIS, CMCSA, TTD, ABNB
Holiday Music: Christmas Is Starting Now by Big Bad Voodoo Daddy
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Andy Cross, Nate Blecharczyk
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl
Sun, 04 Dec 2022 16:00:00 +0000Indra Nooyi on Leadership, Culture, and Steve Jobs
During her 12-year run as CEO of Pepsi, Indra Nooyi helped the company grow sales by 80%. Despite her success as one of the most powerful women in business, she's happy to be out of the world of bits and bytes. Motley Fool co-founder and CEO Tom Gardner caught up with Nooyi to discuss:
- Other CEOs she's learned from
- Building a culture of ownership
- Decision-making as an art and a science
Companies mentioned: PEP, AAPL, AMZN, PFE
Indra Nooyi's best-selling book is "My Life in Full: Work, Family, and Our Future".
Host: Tom Gardner
Guest: Indra Nooyi
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Heather Horton, Dan Boyd
Sat, 03 Dec 2022 17:10:00 +0000Lessons From Great Investors
The first rule of investing is dont lose money. The other rules are a little more complicated.
David Rubenstein is the Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of The Carlyle Group, and the author of How to Invest: Masters on the Craft. Rubenstein joined John Rotonti to discuss:
- Lessons from Warren Buffet, Larry Fink, and Seth Klarman
- Genius and luck in investing
- Happiness and expectations
- Investing with a margin of safety
Companies mentioned: CG, BLK, TSLA, HLT
Host: John Rotonti
Guest: David Rubenstein
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers
Fri, 02 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000More Jobs for Americans, More Confusion for Investors
If you're an investor trying to make sense of the conflicting signals from macroeconomic data, you're not alone.
(0:21) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- A strong jobs report, latest housing data, and contrary indications from the retail industry
- Ulta Beauty continuing a standout year
- VICI Properties increasing its share of properties on the Las Vegas Strip
- Signs of life from Okta
- The latest from Salesforce, Five Below, and Crowdstrike
(19:11) Deidre Woollard talks with Ben Miller, CEO of crowdfunding investment platform Fundrise, about commercial real estate and the trends he's watching for homebuilders and office space.
Stocks discussed: ULTA, CRM, VICI, BX, OKTA, FIVE, CRWD, APRN, EXR, CRNC
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser, Deidre Woollard, Ben Miller
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 01 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000Battling Giants
What's it like competing against a business that's 1,000 times bigger than your own?
(0:21) Emily Flippen discusses:
- Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor leaving his job exactly one year after he got it
- Whether the market is overreacting to Taylor and underreacting to a strong 3rd-quarter report from Salesforce
- Kroger's strong profits and prospects for expanding its grocery empire with a proposed acquisition of Albertson's
(12:10) Jeff Santoro and Jamie Louko engage in "bull vs. bear" debate over cloud infrastructure company DigitalOcean.
Stocks mentioned: CRM, CMG, TEAM, KR, ACI, DOCN, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL
Holiday Music: Silent Night by Ska-J, Hey Skinny Santa by JD McPherson
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Jeff Santoro, Jamie Louko
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 30 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000FTX Collapse: Lessons for Investors
The Dow closes out a strong (relative to other indices) month, and we take a closer look at the collapse of FTX.
(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is "the dumbest index"
- Where investors can find ballast for their portfolios
(15:12) What actually happened with the collapse of FTX? Dylan Lewis and Ricky Mulvey take a closer look at that, as well as some key takeaways for investors.
Stocks mentioned: SHOP, AAPL, KO, MSFT, COIN, HOOD, MSTR
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Dylan Lewis
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Tue, 29 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000Commodities...Seriously?
With more retail data rolling in, it might also be time to start paying attention to commodities.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Cyber Monday's results mirroring Black Friday's
- How the headlines around strong holiday retail may be masking weakness underneath
- Why stock investors may have to start paying attention to the price of copper
(9:50) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp share some gift ideas the people on your list will actually enjoy.
Stocks mentioned: ADBE
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 28 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000China Protests Hit U.S. Stocks, NFL Viewing Hits New Record
Apple's manufacturing challenges are just one of the story lines coming out of the recent protests in China.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Black Friday's new record of $9 billion spent
- How other retailers are competing with Amazon
- NFL viewing on Thanksgiving Day setting new records
(9:33) Bill Mann discusses:
- Rising unemployment among China's young adults
- How municipalities are "drowning in debt"
- The challenges of sourcing ingredients and manufacturing in China for U.S. companies like Apple and Procter & Gamble
Stocks mentioned: WMT, TGT, KSS, AMZN, ETSY, W, AAPL, SBUX, MCD, PG, YUMC
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Bill Mann,
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sun, 27 Nov 2022 16:00:00 +0000What Really Drives Stocks Higher?
Shoppers may need to switch from steak to bologna, but they still need to eat. Thats just one reason for investors to watch consumer staples if youre concerned about a recession.
Richard Bernstein is the CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. Before that he was the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch. Motley Fool Senior Analyst John Rotonti caught up with Bernstein to discuss:
- How growth stories can change through time.
- Sectors showing the power of compounding dividends.
- If a Fed Put still exists.
Members of any Motley Fool service can watch the full interview here: https://www.fool.com/premium/live/video/4056/coverage/2022/11/16/interview-richard-bernstein-ceo-cio-richard-bernst/
Host: John Rotonti
Guest: Richard Bernstein
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Heather Horton, Dan Boyd
Sat, 26 Nov 2022 17:05:00 +0000Hidden Moats
Some moats are obvious, like a fortress balance sheet or Live Nations ownership of the live music. Others are made on mountains that nobody else wants. If you look hard enough, you can find companies with unusual competitive advantages.
Motley Fool Canadas Jim Gillies and Iain Butler join Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- What it means for a company to have a moat
- Key metrics that can show whether a company has a competitive advantage
- Moats in utility poles, engineering software, and gentlemens clubs
Companies mentioned: ADSK, LYV, POOL, RICK, MO, STLJF
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Jim Gillies, Iain Butler
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Fri, 25 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +00004 Stocks We're Thankful For
Cue the sound effect, it's time for our Thanksgiving Special!
(0:21) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss:
- Humble Pie (aka, stocks we were wrong about)
- Stocks we're thankful for
- Turkey stocks to avoid
- Financial topics we really hope don't come up this holiday season
(19:11) We revisit our conversation Scott Galloway, author of the bestselling book Adrift: America in 100 Charts and discuss a potential rebranding for nuclear energy, and which CEO has created the most shareholder value.
(37:20) Jason and Ron share two stocks on their radar: AMETEK and Taiwan Semiconductor.
Stocks discussed: APPH, WD, SBUX, DIS, HD, COST, NKE, BRK.B, TSLA, BBBY, AME, TSM
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Ron Gross, Scott Galloway
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 24 Nov 2022 09:00:00 +0000Apropos of Nothing: Best Side Dishes, Movie Sequels, and Memorable Wedding Receptions
Today were taking a break from investing and finance. If youre looking to kill some time, have a listen to this motley array of nonsense!
(1:45) Chris Hill, Bill Barker, and Bill Mann discuss:
- What should be on the Mount Rushmore of Thanksgiving Side Dishes
- Where we would go if we were in the Witness Protection program
- Pro sports mascots to represent Team USA at the World Cup
- Movie sequels and characters wed like to see more of
- A wedding reception that went viral
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Bill Mann
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Wed, 23 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000$5 Billion Feels Like Overkill
Nordstrom is facing a problem with its customers, while Autodesk faces a problem it created. (0:21) Asit Sharma and Tim Beyers discuss:
- Questions about Autodesks capital allocation strategy.
- Nordstrom's plans for a tough retail environment.
- Favorite Thanksgiving traditions!
(12:44) Tim White joins Tim Beyers for an audio version of This Week in Tech. They discuss the fundamentals of software platforms, and how they could change over the next five years.
Stocks mentioned: ADSK, JWN, CRM, TWLO, MDB, AMZN
Host: Asit Sharma
Guests: Tim Beyers, Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 22 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000Is Zoom Video an Acquisition Target?
Profitable, and worth more than $20 billion, Zoom Video may also be an acquisition target.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Bob Iger's second day back as CEO
- Best Buy, and CEO Corie Barry, defying expectations (again)
- Zoom Video shares falling close to a 2-year low
- How Zoom could fit well into Oracle's business
(12:25) Robert Brokamp talks with Megan McCoy, professor at Kansas State University, about relationships and money.
Stocks mentioned: DIS, BBY, AMZN, ZM, MSFT, ORCL
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Robert Brokamp, Megan McCoy
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 21 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000Bob Iger 2: Return of the CEO!
Late Sunday night the board of directors at The Walt Disney Company fired CEO Bob Chapek and re-hired Bob Iger.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The board's sudden reversal on Chapek
- Expected changes in Disney's executive ranks
- Iger's strengths in building relationships
- Iger's track record in succession planning
(13:11) Dylan Lewis and Kirsten Guerra engage in a bull vs. bear debate over Pinterest.
Stocks mentioned: DIS, PEP, PINS, META
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Dylan Lewis, Kirsten Guerra
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 20 Nov 2022 16:00:00 +0000Mark Cuban on Drugs, Investing, and Advice for Jeff Bezos
The big three healthcare companies arent paying much attention to Mark Cubans new health care venture, Cost Plus Drugs. But their margins could mean a huge opportunity for the new start-up. Chris Hill caught up with Cuban to discuss:
- Why hes able to sell a leukemia drug for thousands of dollars less than competitors
- Stocks he bought during the pandemic
- Advice for potential NFL owner Jeff Bezos
To check out Mark's new business go to www.CostPlusDrugs.com
Companies mentioned: WBA, CVS, NFLX, LYV, LVS, AMZN
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Mark Cuban
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan, Tim Sparks
Sat, 19 Nov 2022 17:01:00 +00002022: New Learnings for Investors
Live from the Hawk & Griffin Pub in Vienna, Virginia...it's Motley Fool Money!
Chris Hill talks with Bill Mann, Emily Flippen, and David Gardner about:
- 2022 through the lens of a small business
- The importance of evaluating the management team of a small cap company
- How fear can be contagious for investors
- Keeping an eye on inflation as we head into 2023
- Optimism around the UNC men's basketball team
Check out the Rule Breaker Investing podcast with David Gardner!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rule-breaker-investing/id1017325738
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Emily Flippen, David Gardner
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Fri, 18 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000Big Retail, Holiday Preview, and Chewy CEO Sumit Singh
If a huge week of retail earnings told us anything, it's that not everyone is ready for the holidays.
(0:30) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss:
- Walmart beating expectations and raising guidance
- Home Depot and Lowe's delivering the goods (without a boost in share prices)
- Target's self-inflicted problems continuing
- Former Domino's CEO Patrick Doyle taking his talents to Restaurant Brands International
- The latest from Williams-Sonoma, Berkshire Hathaway, and Taiwan Semiconductor
(19:15) Emily talks with Sumit Singh, CEO of Chewy, about the pet products industry, when it's ok to lose money on customer acquisition, and why his company is expanding into pet healthcare.
(32:20) Emily and Jason discuss:
- Sam's Club's new pricing strategy
- Two stocks on their radar: Chart Industries and Zoom Video
Stocks mentioned: WMT, HD, LOW, TGT, WSM, NVDA, BRK.A, BRK.B, TSM QSR, DPZ, CHWY, ROVR, GTLS, ZM
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Emily Flippen, Sumit Singh
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 16 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000Family Ties & the Buffett Premium
Fictional character Alex P. Keaton and real-life CEO Warren Buffett have at least one thing in common.
(0:21) Ron Gross discusses:
- Getting inspiration from a sitcom character
- Buying his 1st stock from research in an investing newsletter
- His enduring admiration for Costco
- The undefinable-but-real value of the Buffett Premium when examining Berkshire-Hathaways business
Stocks mentioned: DIS, NFLX, COST, BRK-B
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Ron Gross
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks
Tue, 15 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000"A combination of fraud and delusion"
One reason we like Charlie Munger is he rarely, if ever, minces words.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The latest PPI data boosting the market
- Walmart's inventory levels (and 3rd-quarter results) catching Wall Street's attention
- Charlie Munger sounding off on crypto
(13:37) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp dip into the Fool Mailbag to answer questions about Roth IRAs, how ETFs work, and more!
Companies discussed: WMT, GE, UAA
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 14 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000Twitter's Gift To Competitors
Social media companies selling advertising have been handed an unexpected gift (if they're able to take it).
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Disney's historic win at the box office this weekend being overshadowed by the specter of layoffs
- CEO Bob Chapek's metric for success in 2024
- Eli Lilly falling victim to a prank on Twitter and pulling its ad business in response
- How Snap, Facebook, and Instagram need to take advantage of their sudden opportunity
(11:35) Jason and Matt Frankel take a closer look at the returns that safe investments are offering.
Companies discussed: DIS, AMZN, LLY, META, SNAP
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd
Sun, 13 Nov 2022 16:00:00 +0000Leadership Strategies & Using Sports to Teach Business
More senior-level women are leaving the workforce than ever before, and just 2% of venture capital funding goes to female-led start-ups. That said, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the future of female leadership and entrepreneurship. Julia Boorstin is CNBCs Senior Media & Tech Correspondent and the author of When Women Lead: What They Achieve, Why They Succeed, and How We Can Learn from Them.
Deidre Woollard caught up with Boorstin to discuss:
- Closing the funding gap for female-led companies
- Shifting power dynamics in healthcare
- What sports can teach kids about business
- Why female leadership strategies are valuable for any business
Companies mentioned: RENT, REAL, SFIX
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Julia Boorstin
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sat, 12 Nov 2022 17:00:00 +0000Retail, Inventory, and Deals!
Shipping container prices are down 74% from early this year! But many retailers have too much stuff, and shoppers are less eager to check out the clearance racks. Motley Fool Senior Analyst Sanmeet Deo joins Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- Which retailers are tackling inventory challenges well
- An overlooked metric for retailers
- And a compelling opportunity for long-term investors
Companies mentioned: LULU, NKE, TJX, DKS, SPG, TGT, JWN, ROST, M, AMKBY
Article about Macys inventory management: https://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-inventory-glut-management-supply-chain-officer-dennis-mullahy-peak-season/635640/
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Sanmeet Deo
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Fri, 11 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000We Love Cooling Inflation!
Several factors in the Big Macro pushed stocks higher at week's end.
(0:30) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss:
- How the Consumer Price Index report fueled an historic rise on Thursday
- China's potential for pulling back Covid restrictions
- The role layoffs will play in the coming months
- Disney's parks division being the lone bright spot in an otherwise disappointing 4th-quarter report
- The latest from The Trade Desk, Lyft, and Marqeta
(19:15) Rachel Warren talks with Anjee Solanki, National Retail Director at Colliers, about the top retail trends this holiday season and how consumer spending continues to change.
(32:10) Jason and Ron return to talk about
- Carnival Cruise's intriguing strategy to battle rising food costs
- Two stocks on their radar: Outset Medical and Titan International
Stocks mentioned: META, RDFN, AAPL, DIS, TTD, LYFT, MQ, CCL, AMZN, TJX, DLTR, YUM, WMT, OM, TWI
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser, Rachel Warren, Anjee Solanki
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Thu, 10 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000Did We Just Hit The Bottom?
A lower-than-expected CPI number sent stocks soaring.
(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Why he believes the reaction on Wall Street could signal a bottom for stocks
- Bumble benefitting from today's market rise
- How, after a "busted IPO, Bumble appears to be a real business trading at a more reasonable price
(15:47) Jeremy Bowman talks with GitLab CFO Brian Robins about how his company is helping other companies develop software, and the trade-off between growth and profitability.
Companies discussed: BMBL, MTCH, GTLB
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Jeremy Bowman, Brian Robins
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Wed, 09 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000CEO's Seat Getting Warmer
The House That Mickey Built appears to be struggling.
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Disney's 4th-quarter financials disappointing Wall Street
- How the media division is dragging down the parks division
- Redfin shutting down its home-flipping business and laying off 13% of staff
(14:13) Deidre Woollard talks with Bernie Marcus, co-founder of The Home Depot, about the retailer's early days and other observations from his book "Kick Up Some Dust: Lessons on Thinking Big, Giving Back, and Doing It Yourself".
Companies discussed: DIS, NFLX, RDFN, HD
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Deidre Woollard, Bernie Marcus
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 08 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000Money & The Average American
Rough years for Lyft and Tripadvisor get even rougher.
(0:21) Ron Gross discusses:
- Lyft disappointing Wall Street in one key metric
- Why Uber's diversification is currently an asset
- Tripadvisor's guidance pulling down the stock
(10:54) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Jack Caporal and analyze data around average American salaries, savings, and what it means for your financial goals.
Companies discussed: LYFT, UBER, TRIP
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Jack Caporal
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 07 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000Amazon Music is now FM Radio
Sometimes opportunity comes in the form of competitors making a mistake.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Shares of Meta Platforms rising on reports of "large-scale layoffs" coming this week
- How long it will take to know if Mark Zuckerberg's investments in the metaverse will pay off
- Amazon angering Prime members with an "upgrade" of their music service that changes the user experience for the worse
- Spotify and Apple being gifted an opportunity to find new members for their music services
(13:57) Dylan Lewis and Ricky Mulvey discuss the changing advertising landscape and what the shifts mean for major players like Netflix and Google.
Companies discussed: META, AAPL, SPOT, ROKU, SNAP, NFLX, GOOG, GOOGL
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Dylan Lewis
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 06 Nov 2022 15:00:00 +0000McKinseys Hidden Influence
One of the most powerful private companies in the world is also one of the most secretive. Michael Forsythe is an investigative reporter for The New York Times and co-author of the new book When McKinsey Comes to Town: The Hidden Influence of the World's Most Powerful Consulting Firm. Forsythe joined Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- Why Fortune 500 companies pay millions of dollars for the firms advice
- What The Carnegie Way meant for US Steel
- McKinseys relationship with the FDA and what it means for drugmakers
Companies mentioned: X, BIIB, ALL, DIS, WMT, PNGAY
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Michael Forsythe
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sat, 05 Nov 2022 16:00:00 +0000Buybacks Done Well (and Not-So-Well)
Share buybacks can be a great use of capital, but only for the right price. Dylan Lewis and John Rotonti take a look at two companies that are expert capital allocators and one company thats made some expensive buybacks. They discuss:
- A common misunderstanding investors have about free cash flow
- Why management teams often struggle at doing share repurchases well
- How Apple became a shining example of superior capital allocation
- One less-familiar company thats executed buybacks well
Companies discussed: APPL, META, ORLY
Capital Allocation episode: https://www.fool.com/podcasts/motley-fool-money/2022-05-14-capital-allocation-the-superpower
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guest: John Rotonti
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Fri, 04 Nov 2022 20:38:00 +0000Surprising Earnings and Portfolio Protection
If the jobs report and Federal Reserve didn't surprise investors, some earnings reports sure did.
(0:30) Andy Cross and Jason Moser discuss:
- How two of the "War On Cash" stocks are doing
- Etsy's cautious optimism heading into the holidays
- North American same-store sales fueling the rise of Starbucks
- The latest from Qualcomm, Atlassian, and Uber
(19:15) Rachel Warren talks with Jon Maier, chief investment officer at Global X, about how to protect your portfolio during an economic downturn and trends he's watching over the next 3, 5, and 10 years.
(30:30: Andy and Jason return to talk about
- Hershey's latest quarter
- Investing strategy for a college student
- Two stocks on their radar: Ulta Beauty and The Trade Desk
Stocks mentioned: SQ, PYPL, ETSY, SBUX, QCOM, TEAM, UBER, HSY, VOO, ULTA, TTD
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Andy Cross, Rachel Warren, Jon Maier
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Thu, 03 Nov 2022 20:00:00 +0000"The clock is ticking."
Some companies have bright futures, while others simply run out of time.
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Roku having more cyclicality than investors might expect
- Whether Peloton can produce lower inventories over the holidays
- Fastly's CEO declaring a commitment to growth
(15:26) Ricky Mulvey continues his conversation with Ben Foldy (Wall Street Journal reporter and host of the podcast Bad Bets) about the current state of Nikola and the rising interest in hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Companies discussed: ROKU, DIS, NFLX, PTON, FSLY, NB, NKLA, BMWYY, TM
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Tim Beyers, Ben Foldy
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 02 Nov 2022 20:00:00 +0000Airbnb's Record Quarter, Nikola's Early Days
If you think this is a market that will automatically reward a stock because the company posted record revenue, think again.
(0:17) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Why today's announcement from the Federal Reserve won't change the way he invests
- Record revenue highlighting Airbnb's 3rd-quarter results
- Whether today's drop in share price looks like a buying opportunity
(8:31) Ben Foldy, Wall Street Journal reporter and host of the podcast "Bad Bets", shares insights on Nikola founder Trevor Milton, his early career, and the steps that led to one of the hottest stocks of the pandemic.
Companies discussed: ABNB, NKLA, KNX
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Ben Foldy
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 01 Nov 2022 20:00:00 +0000A "Shock and Awe" Acquisition
A 50% premium is a buyout price most investors would love to see. To acquire Abiomed, Johnson & Johnson was happy to pay it.
(0:17) Bill Mann discusses:
- Why he believes a "shock and awe" price was worth paying for J&J
- How Abiomed strengthens the company's medical device portfolio
- Amazon expanding its ad-free music library for Prime members
- Signs that the retail giant is gunning for Spotify, Disney, and other entertainment companies
(10:33) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp discuss how shortcuts can make you a smarter saver.
Companies discussed: JNJ, ABMD, AMZN, SPOT, DIS, PARA
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 31 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +00004 Stocks We Just Bought
October turned out to be the best month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in a long time.
(0:17) Jason Moser discusses:
- The importance of staying invested through bear markets
- JPMorgan Chase going after the rental payment market
- How much JPM has been investing in technology
- Wells Fargo issuing a "double downgrade" of Hanesbrands
(13:49) Matt Frankel joins Jason to discuss four companies they bought shares of recently.
Companies discussed: JPM, HBI, HD, MKC, STOR, O, PINS
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 30 Oct 2022 15:00:00 +0000Industrial Companies with Moats
When the party is happening in the penthouse, this is a sector thats in the basement.
Industrial companies arent the sexiest stocks, but thats where investors can find strong moats. You just have to look at micro-verticals like fluid-handling, label making, and aircraft replacement parts. Nick Santhanam is the CEO of the Fernweh Group and a co-author of the new book The Titanium Economy: How Industrial Technology Can Create a Better, Faster, Stronger America. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Santhanam to talk about:
- Why investors often misunderstand the industrial sector
- How companies are using 3D printing and blockchain technology
- Why family-run companies have key advantages for long-term investors
- The biggest challenge for companies in the Titanium Economy
Companies mentioned: GGG, HEI, SEE, BRD, CWST, AZZ
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Nick Santhanam
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sat, 29 Oct 2022 16:00:00 +0000Who Killed the Candy Bar?
If youre looking for a market-beating stock then you dont have to go much further than the candy aisle. Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma gear up for Halloween and discuss:
- Why candy is a growing market thats also shrinking
- Hersheys M&A strategy and supply chain questions
- Official Halloween candy power rankings
Companies mentioned: HSY, GIS, NKE
Michele Bucks HBR article: https://hbr.org/2022/11/the-ceo-of-hershey-on-turning-a-candy-company-into-a-snacks-empire
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Asit Sharma
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Fri, 28 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Apple, Amazon, and 2 New All-Time Highs
The biggest tech companies reported this week, but it was Apple that shined the brightest.
(0:30) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- The diversity and strength of Apple's business lines
- Slowing growth in Amazon Web Services
- Meta Platforms hitting its lowest point in 6 years
- Ford Motor's demonstration of fiscal discipline
- The latest from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Visa
(19:15) Jason and Matt continue the earnings analysis and discuss:
- ExxonMobil and McDonald's hitting new highs
- Chipotle's plans for growth
- Surprisingly strong weeks for Teladoc Health and Intel
- Overrated and underrated Halloween candy
- Two stocks on their radar: SiTime Corp. and Lennox International
Got a question about investing?
Email podcasts@fool.com
Stocks mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, META, GOOG, GOOGL, V, MSFT, F, XOM, TDOC, INTC, CMG, MCD, LII, SITM, TSM
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 27 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Meta Misses, Shopify Stabilizes
On a day when Shopify and Comcast gave shareholders reasons for hope, Meta Platforms slid to its lowest level since 2016.
(0:21) Andy Cross discusses:
- Meta's worrisome R&D spending metric
- Low expectations helping to fuel Shopify's rise
- Comcast beating tough quarterly comps, thanks in part to the Minions
(13:41) Ricky Mulvey talks with Scott Ford, CEO of WestRock, a "brand behind the brands" coffee business serving up 20 million cups a day.
Companies discussed: META, SHOP, CMCSA, WEST
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Andy Cross, Scott Ford
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 26 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Alphabet, Visa, Roku
Google's parent company disappointed Wall Street, but share buybacks continue.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Alphabet being a strong business, despite recent downturns
- Spinning off YouTube being an idea that doesn't make sense
- Visa wrapping up the fiscal year in strong fashion
- CEO Al Kelly being among those who do not expect a recession in 2023
(10:56) Shares of Roku have fallen more than 75% year to date. Ryan Henderson and Jose Najarro engage in a bull vs. bear debate over the digital media player company.
Companies discussed: GOOG, GOOGL, V, MA, ROKU, NFLX
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Ryan Henderson, Jose Najarro
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 25 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Coke's Pop, Weber's Buyout, Stock Market Superstitions
Big Red is still trailing Pepsi but, just like its competitor, it's got pricing power.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Coca-Cola's strength in the face of currency headwinds
- PayPal's new partnership with Amazon
- Weber's largest shareholder grilling up a buyout offer
- A new metric for retail businesses: DTRG
(13:17) Just in time for Halloween, Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp break down stock market superstitions.
Companies discussed: KO, PEP, PYPL, AMZN, SHOP, LULU, WEBR, COOK
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 24 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Big Tech Earnings Preview
Earnings season kicks into full swing with Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft reporting this week.
(:21) Dylan Lewis and Tim Beyers discuss:
- Margins, pricing power, and other metrics to watch from big tech companies.
- More details about Twitter's acquisition.
- Why Chinese tech stocks are dropping as Xi Jingping begins his third term.
The battle of research papers is on! (16:58) Tim White joins Tim Beyers to discuss the simple reason why tech giants are very interested in generating images from text prompts.
Companies mentioned: MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, META, TWTR, NFLX, AAPL
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 23 Oct 2022 15:00:00 +0000Crazy Eddie and the Art of Stock Fraud
Spotting a stock fraud is extremely difficult, but finding some smoke is significantly easier.
Founded by Eddie Antar, Crazy Eddie was a chain of consumer electronic stores in the Northeast. After going public in the 1980s, the stock became nearly a ten-bagger before investigators found it to be a fraud. Investors may not have suspected that the retailer boosted profit margins by manipulating a cash skim, but there were some other signs that the soaring stock price didnt tell the whole story.
Ricky Mulvey talked with Gary Weiss, author of Retail Gangster: The Insane, Real-Life Story of Crazy Eddie about:
- Why investors bought into Eddie Antars hype
- How criminals save money on sales tax
- The eventual downfall of Crazy Eddie
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Gary Weiss
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Sat, 22 Oct 2022 16:00:00 +0000What Currency Headwinds Mean for Investors
Expect to hear currency headwinds a lot this earnings season. But a strong U.S. dollar isnt all bad and can make international companies cheaper. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Bill Mann to look at four economies around the world, including:
- Englands pension and interest rate problems
- The challenges of investing in China
- A massive raw material exporter with a currency that outperformed the US dollar
(NOTE: This episode was recorded before Liz Truss resigned as Britain's Prime Minister
Companies mentioned: CNSWF, NXGPY
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Bill Mann
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Fri, 21 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Stocks (and Investing Books) We're Bullish On
Snap fell 30% and took other social media and advertising stocks down with it.
(0:30) Emily Flippen and Ron Gross discuss:
- Pinterest, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet getting dragged down by Snap's bad news
- American Express shares falling despite increased full-year guidance
- Boston Beer's strong 3rd-quarter report
- The latest from Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla, and Tractor Supply
(19:15) Emily and Ron dip into the Fool Mailbag and discuss:
- Medical device pure-plays
- Investing books they recommend
- Surprising economics of pumpkin spice
- The latest from McDonald's and Keurig Dr. Pepper
- Stocks they're more bullish on
- Two stocks on their radar: ASML Holding and Blackstone
Got a question about investing?
Email podcasts@fool.com
Stocks mentioned: SNAP, PINS, META, GOOG, GOOGL, CAT, DE, AXP, NFLX, MSFT, TSLA, TSCO, SAM, MCD, DNUT, SYK, MDT, ZBH, JNJ, RMD, SG, FNCL, JPM, SBUX, PEP, KO, KDP, BX, ASML
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 20 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Tesla's Optimism Springs Eternal
Despite mixed 3rd-quarter results Elon Musk is ever-optimistic about Tesla's future.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Economic takeaways from England's sudden need for a new Prime Minister
- Questions about Tesla's accounting
- Why he believes that, despite falling in 2022, Tesla's stock is still pretty expensive.
(10:11) Buck Hartzell talks with Boston Omaha co-CEOs Adam Peterson and Alex Rozek about the nuts and bolts of their business, and how they're handling short-term pain. If you're a member of any Motley Fool service you can access the full Boston Omaha interview here: https://www.fool.com/premium/live/video/4056/coverage/2022/10/19/interview-alex-rozek-adam-peterson-boston-omaha/
Companies discussed: TSLA, BOC
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Buck Hartzell, Adam Peterson, Alex Rozek
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Wed, 19 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Netflix Rising, WWE Preparing
Netflix surprises Wall Street and throws down the gauntlet at streaming competitors.
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- 3rd-quarter profits, revenue, and subscriber growth coming in higher than expected
- Optimism around Netflix's new ad platform
- Why he believes the stock is fairly valued (with room to run)
(11:00) Nick Sciple and Jim Gillies discuss the business of World Wrestling Entertainment and how the company may be preparing itself to be acquired.
Companies discussed: NFLX, DIS, AAPL, WWE, CMCSA
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Tim Beyers, Nick Sciple, Jim Gillies
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Tue, 18 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Activist Investors Shake the Tree
If you'd like to see tech stocks turn around, some activist investors feel the same way. They just have some more fire power.
(0:21) Deidre Woollard and Asit Sharma discuss:
- Starboard Value's recent stakes in Splunk and Salesforce.
- Dan Loeb's push for a spinoff at Colgate-Palmolive.
- Layoffs at Microsoft.
Plus, Robert Brokamp and Matt Frankel (14:06) discuss how your home fits into a financial plan.
Companies discussed: CRM, MSFT, CL, SPLK, GIS, INTC
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 17 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000The War on Checks
Home buyers aren't welcoming higher interest rates, but they are mostly good news for banks. (0:21) Deidre Woollard and Jason Moser discuss:
- Bank of America's strong quarter.
- BNY Mellon's move to hold crypto for its clients.
- Why banks are pumping up their loan loss reserves.
Advertising tech stocks have been hurt, but actual spend is holding up. (10:51) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma look at the ad landscape, and one smaller player with a strong balance sheet.
Companies mentioned: BAC, JPM, PYPL, SQ, V, MA, MQ, BILL, BK, TTD, MGNI, PUBM
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sun, 16 Oct 2022 15:00:00 +0000Opportunities in Sustainable Investing
More than 90% of S&P 500 companies publish sustainability reports. But whats real and whats just greenwashing? Bruce Usher is a professor at Columbia Business School and the author of Investing in the Era of Climate Change. Maria Gallagher and Alyce Lomax talked with Usher about:
- Opportunities in sustainable investing
- Renewable energy technology.
- How electric vehicles can help solve green energys intermittency problem
Stocks mentioned: F, TSLA
Additional resource: https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/esg-investing/climate-change-stocks/
Hosts: Maria Gallagher, Alyce Lomax
Guest: Bruce Usher
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Brandon Gentry
Sat, 15 Oct 2022 16:00:00 +0000Meet the Dividend Knights
You've heard of the Dividend Aristocrats and the Dividend Kings, but wed like to introduce you to the Dividend Knights: dividend-paying stocks that have also beaten the market.
Ricky Mulvey caught up with Matt Argersinger and Anthony Schiavone to discuss:
- Surprising companies (e.g., Dillard's) that have beaten the market over a ten-year period
- Listener questions about dividend stocks
- One interesting income opportunity
Companies discussed: UNP, HD, DDS, PRI, MTN, YARIY, GOOGL, GOOG, DIS, POOL
Find the full list of Dividend Knights here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1-OPCz9pXOcgFqmbMR3wxREg4O7ws_qWW8RWqKPYn1D4/edit#gid=0
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Anthony Schiavone
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Fri, 14 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Big Merger, Big Banks, Lessons from the NYSE Floor
Earnings season started with head-scratching volatility on Thursday and a surprising merger announcement on Friday.
(0:21) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss:
- Highlights from the Big Banks' latest earnings reports
- Kroger's $24 billion plan to acquire rival grocery chain Albertson's
- New details on Netflix's ad-supported tier starting in November
- The latest from UnitedHealth Group, Walgreen's, and Domino's Pizza
(19:15) For the past 25 years CNBC's Bob Pisani has been reporting live from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. In his new book, "Shut Up and Keep Talking: Lessons on Life and Investing", he shares insights from investing legends (Vanguard's John Bogle) and memorable encounters with rock legends (Led Zeppelin's Jimmy Page).
(37:30) Jason Moser and Ron Gross share two stocks on their radar: Uber and Stanley Black & Decker
Stocks mentioned: C, JPM, MS, WFC, UNH, KR, ACI, WMT, TGT, AMZN, WBA, NFLX, DIS, MSFT, DPZ, UBER, SWK
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Ron Gross, Bob Pisani
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 13 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Horror Movie-nomics
Why are there so many horror movies? Because they're so profitable to make.
(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Volatility (the good kind!) in the market today
- Insider buying being a signal he watches closely
- Why he's most interested in TFS Financial Corp. and Medpace Holdings this earnings season
(12:50) As horror movie fans get ready for this weekend's release of "Halloween Ends", Ricky Mulvey talks with Catie Peiper about the economics of horror movies.
Stocks discussed: TGT, TFSL, MEDP
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Catie Peiper
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 12 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Defensive Stocks FTW
No one is putting Pepsi on a list of "sexy stocks" but its performance this year has been crushing the market.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Pepsi's ability to increase prices that customers are still willing to pay
- The role of "shrinkflation" in Pepsi's strategy
- Market reaction to the latest Producer Price Index data and what he's watching with Thursday's CPI report
(10:05) Did you know Disney tried to make interactive theme parks in the late 1990s? Ricky Mulvey talks with Rick Munarriz about DisneyQuest and its potential parallels to the metaverse today.
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks discussed: PEP, DIS, META
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, Rick Munarriz
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Tue, 11 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000E-Commerce Overreached. Now What?
It's hard to argue with a headline like "The Great Post-Covid Online Shopping Bet Was a Costly Delusion", but we're going to anyway.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Why the investments Amazon and Shopify made were not a "delusion"
- What to watch for among online retailers this holiday shopping season
- Inventory management being the metric to watch in early 2023
(11:13) Mark Kantrowitz is an expert on saving for college and author of "Filing the FAFSA". Robert Brokamp talks with him about some of the most common errors people make when applying for financial aid.
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks discussed: AMZN, SHOP, W
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Robert Brokamp, Mark Kantrowitz
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 10 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Calm Before The Storm
It's quiet before earnings season. Too quiet.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Expectations for earnings season (which really starts on Friday)
- Jamie Dimon's comments about a U.S. recession being 6-9 months away
- Key data around consumer savings and spending
(11:58) In 2017 Intel bought Mobileye, a self-driving car company, for $15 billion. As Intel prepares to spin it out, Dylan Lewis and Ricky Mulvey discuss the relative attractiveness of the soon-to-be public Mobileye.
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks discussed: ADBE, INTC, MBLY
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Dylan Lewis
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks
Sun, 09 Oct 2022 15:00:00 +0000Fall Q&A: Stocks, Dividends, Luxury Goods, and a Cannabis REIT
Youve got questions, so we rounded up some Fools with answers!
In this fall mailbag were answering your voicemails and emails about:
- Adobes $20 billion acquisition of Figma
- If a cannabis REIT is a good buy
- Luxury goods stocks as a hedge against inflation
- Using dividend payments for a mortgage
Got a question for the show? Call the Motley Fool Money hotline at 703-254-1445.
Companies mentioned: XOM, RACE, RH, SWGAY, LVMUY, CPRI, MTN, PEB, ADBE, DOMO, IIPR
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Dylan Lewis, Tim Beyers, Emily Flippen, Jason Moser, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Sat, 08 Oct 2022 16:00:00 +0000Semiconductors 101
Your remote control, the fastest supercomputers in the world, and artificial intelligence applications have something in common: the semiconductors needed to make them work.
Jason Moser and John Rotonti dig into one of the most important industries in the world and discuss:
- The semiconductor value chain
- Geopolitical risks (and opportunities) and the industry's cyclicality
- Implications of the CHIPS Act
- One critical chipmaker thats cheaper than the S&P 500
Companies mentioned: NVDA, CDNS, SNPS, ASML, LRCX, AMAT, TOELY, ASML, TER, INTC, TSM, SSNLF, AMD, QCOM, KLAC
Host: Jason Moser
Guest: John Rotonti
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Fri, 07 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000More Rate Hikes Coming
Make no mistake, investors, September's jobs report is just one more indication that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in November.
(0:21) Andy Cross and Jason Moser discuss:
- AMD warning about lower revenue
- Constellation Brands posting a lost in the 2nd quarter
- Apple looking to boost production in India
- Macy's gaining inventory insights from its own credit-card data
- The latest from McCormick, Peloton, and more
(19:11) Malcolm Ethridge, host of "The Tech Money Podcast", weighs in on prospects for more interest rate hikes, expectations for earnings season, why he's watching seasonal hiring, and the S&P 600.
(32:45) Jason Moser and Andy Cross discuss the possibility of DraftKings signing an exclusive partnership with ESPN, and share two stocks on their radar: Alphabet and Dream Finders Homes.
Stocks mentioned: AMD, NVDA, MKC, STZ, PTON, AAPL, M, TGT, NKE, DKNG, DIS, GOOG, GOOGL, DFH
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Andy Cross, Jason Moser, Malcolm Ethridge
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Thu, 06 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Bull vs. Bear: Boston Beer Co.
Amazon is the latest to signal its intentions around holiday retail hiring.
(0:21) Maria Gallagher discusses:
- Amazon's announcement it will increase hourly pay and hire 150,000 seasonal workers
- Data around consumer spending sentiment
- Why she's watching how higher-end retailers will fare this year
(8:53) You may enjoy a cold Sam Adams, Angry Orchard cider, or Truly hard seltzer, but does that make parent company Boston Beer Co. a good investment? Jason Hall and Travis Hoium engage in our latest bull vs. bear debate!
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks discussed: AMZN, UPS, TGT, WMT, LULU, SAM
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Maria Gallagher, Travis Hoium, Jason Hall
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Wed, 05 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Musk/Twitter Back On?
Elon Musk says he's going to buy Twitter at the original price, and this time he means it!
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- His belief that the Musk/Twitter deal will get done
- Forward guidance being the thing he'll be watching in the upcoming earnings season
- Why he believes stagflation is the biggest risk to the economy right now
(10:50) If you think SaaS companies are efficient, can we interest you in a retailer that that sells gently-used goods? Jim Gillies discusses a small cap business that's been rewarding shareholders.
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks discussed: TWTR, TSLA, WINA, EBAY
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Jim Gillies
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks
Tue, 04 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +00001 Stock for National Taco Day
And another high-profile IPO company gets taken private.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Poshmark's all-cash deal that values the company at less than half of its IPO price.
- Private market valuations coming down
- National Taco Day and Chipotle's strong business
(11:00) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with senior analyst Rich Greiner about the fundamentals of value investing.
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks discussed: POSH, REAL, CMG, VTV, VBR, META, BKNG
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, Rich Greifner, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 03 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000Kim K, Crypto, and Porsche's IPO
What are the chances the stock market makes a 4th-quarter comeback?
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The chances of the S&P 500, down more than 20% year-to-date, rising over the last 3 months of the year
- How the market tends to do worse the year before a recession
- Kim Kardashian agreeing to pay $1.2 million to settle charges from the SEC she failed to disclose payment for touting crypto on Instagram
(12:21) Dylan Lewis and Brian Feroldi take a closer look at Porsche, which was recently spun off from Volkswagen.
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks discussed: META, P911, VWAPY
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Dylan Lewis, Brian Feroldi
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks
Sun, 02 Oct 2022 04:00:00 +0000Ben Franklin: Founding Father of Microfinance and Open-Source Tech
If you want someone to manage your money then you better pay them. Thats just one lesson from Ben Franklins complicated financial life.
Robert Brokamp talks with Michael Meyer, author of Benjamin Franklin's Last Bet: The Favorite Founder's Divisive Death, Enduring Afterlife, and Blueprint for American Prosperity about:
- Franklin's mistakes in estate planning
- The power of small, anonymous donations
- Other fun facts about America's first celebrity
Host: Robert Brokamp
Guest: Michael Meyer
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Sat, 01 Oct 2022 04:00:00 +0000No Solutions, Just Trade Offs: Doomberg on Worldwide Energy Challenges Molecules, Physics, and Platitudes
The worlds energy crunch is a battle between platitudes and physics. Leaders may want to pay closer attention to the physics part. So for more insight on the worlds energy crunch we reached out to a cartoon chicken.
Wait, what?
Doomberg is an anonymous team of analysts covering energy and economic trends. Their newsletter is Substacks #1 finance publication and the group is represented by a cartoon chicken.
Motley Fool Senior Analyst Nick Sciple caught up with Doombergs head writer for a chat about:
- The state of Europes energy crisis.
- Nuclears place in a decarbonized future.
- And what the Nord Stream pipeline attack means for the world.
Host: Nick Sciple
Guest: Doomberg
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Fri, 30 Sep 2022 20:00:00 +0000Scott Galloway on CEOs, Big Tech, and Energy
(0:21) Ron Gross, Maria Gallagher, and Jason Moser discuss:
- Nikes tough quarter.
- Macro headwinds for Carmax.
- Questions about Pelotons retail strategy.
- Lululemons new subscription service.
- Signs that Cintas is focused on the long-term.
- Amazons data strategy and product announcements.
(19:11) Scott Galloway, author of Adrift: America in 100 Charts, discusses his new book, why nuclear energy needs a rebrand, and the CEO thats created the most shareholder value in history.
(37:21) Jason Moser and Maria Gallagher share two stocks on their radar: Cadence Design Systems and Target.
Hosts: Ron Gross, Chris Hill
Guests: Scott Galloway, Maria Gallagher, Jason Moser
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Companies mentioned: NKE, KMX, PTON, DKS, LULU, BBBY, AMZN, MTN, CTAS, CCL, CDNS, TGT, AAPL, TSLA
Thu, 29 Sep 2022 20:00:00 +0000An IPO, In This Environment?
Volkswagen spun off its investment in Porsche for the first big name IPO of 2022. It only took until late September!
(0:18) Dylan Lewis and Tim Beyers discuss:
- Why Porsche is going public while other companies are holding off.
- Down rounds in the private markets.
- Promising results for Biogens Alzheimers treatment.
Mortgage rates have doubled in the past year. (13:33) Deidre Woollard and Matt Argersinger look at the ripple effects and which companies could benefit from the shift.
Companies mentioned: P911, VWAPY, RACE, BIIB, HD, Z, AOS, WSO, OPEN, LOW
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Matt Argersinger, Deidre Woolard
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:04:00 +0000"All of this has happened before."
If what's happening today with Apple seems familiar, it should.
(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Reports that lower demand for the iPhone 14 is causing Apple to tell their suppliers there's no need to ramp up production
- How history is an excellent guide on what today's short-term drop in Apple's stock means for long-term investors
- Why now is the time to invest (even if it doesn't feel great)
(10:00) Ricky Mulvey talks with best-selling author Blake Crouch about gene modification, and a future that may be closer than most people imagine.
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445!
Stocks discussed: AAPL
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Blake Crouch
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Tue, 27 Sep 2022 20:00:00 +0000Mistakes? We've Made A Few
When you don't get what you want, you get experience.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- The S&P 500 hitting a new low for the year
- Seeking out companies with "fortress balance sheets"
- Whether Mullen Automotive is a meme stock
- Learning from mistakes and staying in the game
(11:00) Economists and personal finance authors have very different opinions on topics like savings and investing. Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp break down the differences and share their own thoughts.
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445!
Stocks discussed: MULN, UA
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Brian Stoffel, Jamie Louko
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Mon, 26 Sep 2022 20:00:03 +0000Prime Day 2: E-Commerce Boogaloo
For the first time ever, Amazon is having a second "Prime Day" event.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Behind-the-scenes planning that led up to this announcement
- Inventory clearing, and the role it may play in this event before Amazon's final holiday push
- Apple finding their headliner for next year's Super Bowl halftime show
(11:00) Brian Stoffel and Jamie Louko engage in a Bull vs. Bear debate over AirBnb.
Got questions about stocks?
Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445!
Stocks discussed: AMZN, AAPL, ABNB, EXPE, BKNG
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Brian Stoffel, Jamie Louko
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks
Sun, 25 Sep 2022 15:00:01 +0000What Do Higher Interest Rates Mean for REITs?
Stock prices dont always reflect business performance. Thats the case for many real estate investment trusts (where some occupancies are above pre-pandemic highs) but the effects of rising interest rates may be in its early innings.
John Worth is the executive vice president for research and investor outreach at the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, or Nareit. Deidre Woollard and Matt Frankel caught up with Worth to talk about:
- Strong REIT business performances and sliding stock prices
- The lasting effects of COVID on commercial real estate
- Why private equity firms are buying up public REITs
Companies mentioned: PLD, DRE
Hosts: Deidre Woollard, Matt Frankel
Guest: John Worth
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Brandon Gentry
Sat, 24 Sep 2022 16:00:30 +0000Morgan Housel on Inflation, Incentives, and Investing through Bear Markets
No one's success is proven until they've survived a calamity.
You cant join the NBA with a few good shots, but you can join the ranks of great investors. Luck and skill are much harder to separate in the financial world and making that distinction can take a few decades. Chris Hill talked with best-selling author Morgan Housel in front of a live audience about:
- Why inflation is so personal and variable
- Elon Musks best product (hint: its not a car)
- The power of incentives
- The secret to 99% of Warren Buffets success
- Investing through bear markets
Companies mentioned: BRK.A, BRK.B, HOOD, TSLA
If you're a member of any Motley Fool service you can access the video for the full interview here: https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/4056/coverage/2022/08/31/wealth-greed-and-happiness-with-best-selling-autho
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Morgan Housel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Fri, 23 Sep 2022 20:00:36 +0000Recession Fears, House Hacking, Consumer Spending for the Holidays
For the 5th time in 6 weeks, there was a lot of red on Wall Street.
(0:30) Jason Moser and Maria Gallagher discuss:
- The Fed's latest rate hike spooking investors
- Costco delivering (yet again) in the 4th quarter
- Darden Restaurants walking a fine line with customers
- DocuSign's hiring its new CEO from Alphabet
- Amazon declaring victory with Thursday Night Football
(19:45) Deidre Woollard and Matt Frankel talk with Robert Leonard, host of the Millennial Investing podcast, about house hacking.
(28:30) Maria and Jason answer questions from the Fool Mailbag and share two stocks on their radar: Lululemon Athletica and Microsoft.
Got questions about stocks? Drop an email to podcasts@fool.com or call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445!
Stocks discussed on the show: COST, TGT, UPS, WMT, DRI, DOCU, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, PYPL, PG, LVMH, LULU, MSFT
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Maria Gallagher, Jason Moser, Deidre Woollard, Matt Frankel, Robert Leonard
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Thu, 22 Sep 2022 20:00:02 +0000Are SPACs Done?
What does it say that no private company wants a check for $1.1 billion?
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The stock market being surprised that the Fed raised rates by 0.75% (as almost everyone expected)
- Chamath Palihapitiya shutting down two SPACs and returning money to investors
- Whether SPACs are essentially over
(13:02) Rachel Warren talks with author Ross Dawson about his new book Thriving on Overload: The 5 Powers for Success in a World of Exponential Information.
Got questions about stocks?
Drop an email to podcasts@fool.com or call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Rachel Warren, Ross Dawson
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Brandon Gentry
Wed, 21 Sep 2022 20:00:19 +0000YouTube vs. TikTok
Alphabet, parent company of YouTube, deploys a new weapon in its battle with TikTok: cash.
(0:25) Maria Gallagher discusses:
- YouTube's announcement of a new revenue-sharing model for creators of short-form videos
- How this strategy can help with retaining existing creators
- Why should really hate to see Lisa Su leave the corner office at AMD
(10:00) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma talk about how some people make investing harder than it needs to be, and how to make your investing life a little easier.
Got questions about stocks?
Drop an email to podcasts@fool.com or call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks mentioned: GOOG, GOOGL, COST, AMD, ADBE, TTD
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Maria Gallagher, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Tue, 20 Sep 2022 20:00:00 +0000"Make no mistake, this too shall pass."
Bear markets always come to an end, but they're not necessarily fun while they last.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The market reacting to the Federal Reserve's announcement a day before the Fed actually makes it
- Why large companies like Microsoft are quietly preparing for 2023 and 2024
- The bizarre incident involving Beyond Meat's chief operating officer
(11:25) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Emily Flippen about some of the biggest consumer goods storylines of the year, and potential radar stocks for investors.
Stocks mentioned: MSFT, BYND, NFLX, LULU, PTON, CHWY, SG, BARK, VDC
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Emily Flippen
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 19 Sep 2022 20:00:00 +0000Pessimism High? Might Be Time To Buy
"The best time to buy is when pessimism is prevalent."
(0:21) John Rotonti discusses:
- Why the rise in investor pessimism gets him excited to go shopping for investments
- What he's watching
- A mind-blowing stat about how important it is to stay invested in the market
(10:30) Tim Beyers talks with Tim White about which SaaS companies have sticky software (as opposed to skippable).
Stocks mentioned: FDX, KKR, ADBE, SQSP, SHOP, TEAM, HUBS, CRM
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: John Rotonti, Tim Beyers, Tim White
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 18 Sep 2022 15:00:11 +0000Liz Ann Sonders on Economic Cycles, Stock Prices, and Investing Mistakes
Shorter economic cycles and more frequent recessions doesn't necessarily mean the downturns will be brutal. John Rotonti talked with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, about:
- The mothers milk of stock prices
- How this market is simultaneously like the 1970s, post-WWII, and completely unique
- One common rebalancing mistake that investors often make
Host: John Rotonti
Guest: Liz Ann Sonders
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan
Sat, 17 Sep 2022 16:00:21 +0000CRISPR, Gene Therapies, and Cure Pricing Conundrums
Genetically edited humans are already here. Gene editing has massive implications for treating chronic illnesses and even the food we eat. So what does this mean for your investments and, y'know, possibly humanity? Ricky Mulvey talks with Motley Fool Advisor Karl Thiel about:
- How CRISPR works
- Some of the possibilities for CRISPR, from sickle cell cures to drought-resistant crops
- How investors can approach investing in gene therapies
- Biotech metrics to watch.
Companies mentioned: BLUE, CRSP, GILD, EDIT, VRTX, NTLA
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Karl Theil
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd
Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:00:42 +0000Amazon's Big Bet on the NFL
Another rough week for the stock market coincides with Amazon's exclusive start to Thursday Night Football.
(0:30) Emily Flippen and Ron Gross discuss:
- FedEx shares having a historically bad day amid talk of a recession
- Adobe spending $20 billion for a start-up software design firm
- Optimism around Starbucks after an impressive (and detailed) investor day
- Twilio laying off 11% of employees
- Two business leaders and their legacies
(19:45) John Ourand from the Sports Business Journal discusses Amazon's investments in NFL programming, Disney's thinking about ESPN, college football playoff expansion, and story lines for the MLB playoffs.
(35:30) Ron and Emily share two stocks on their radar: Union Pacific and Costco.
Stocks discussed on the show: FDX, ADBE, SBUX, TWLO, AMZN, DIS, AAPL, UNP, COST
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross, John Ourand
Engineer: Dan BoydGenetically edited humans are already here. Gene editing has massive implications for treating chronic illnesses and even the food we eat. So what does this mean for your investments and, y'know, possibly humanity? Ricky Mulvey talks with Motley Fool Advisor Karl Thiel about:
- How CRISPR works
- Some of the possibilities for CRISPR, from sickle cell cures to drought-resistant crops
- How investors can approach investing in gene therapies
- Biotech metrics to watch.
Companies mentioned: BLUE, CRSP, GILD, EDIT, VRTX, NTLA
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Karl Theil
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd
Thu, 15 Sep 2022 20:00:34 +0000Housing Trends w/ Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks
Regulators take a closer look at buy-now, pay-later companies.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announcing plans to oversee BNPL businesses like Affirm Holdings
- Why this is not an example of government overreach
- His very recent trip to eastern Europe and the current state of energy access in the region
(13:30) Deidre Woollard interviews Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks in front of a live audience and discusses the "public spaces" part of Trex's business, and what gets Fairbanks excited to go to work every day.
If you're a member of any Motley Fool service, you can access the entire interview with Bryan Fairbanks here:
https://www.fool.com/premium/live/video/4056/coverage/2022/08/31/the-global-supply-chain-and-housing-trends-with-tr/
Stocks mentioned: PYPL, SQ, AFRM, TREX, HD, LOW
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Deidre Woollard, Bryan Fairbanks
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan
Wed, 14 Sep 2022 20:00:42 +0000"Days like yesterday are a gift."
Down days in the market aren't fun, but they may also be great days to buy stocks.
(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Why his rule is to never buy stocks on a day the market is up
- The types of companies he's been buying shares of lately
- Takeaways from Starbucks' investor day event
(16:24) Ollen Douglass, managing partner of Motley Fool Ventures, talks with Jenny Abramson, founder and managing partner of Rethink Impact, in front of a live audience about investing in private companies and what she looks for company leaders.
Stocks mentioned: SBUX
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Marc Rapport, Joseph Ori
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Spencer Daniel
Tue, 13 Sep 2022 20:00:26 +0000What's On Your Watchlist?
If you're a long-term investor, today was a good day to go shopping.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Stocks, across the board, falling in response to the Consumer Price Index data for August
- Jay Powell, and the increasing likelihood of a third consecutive rate hike of 0.75%
- The importance of having a watchlist of stocks
- Buying great businesses at lower prices
(11:10) Tim Beyers joins Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp to discuss the various businesses "tech stocks" actually consist of.
Stocks mentioned: SPY, QQQ, AMZN, DIS, GOOG, GOOGL, JNJ, NVDA
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, Alison Southwick, Tim Beyers, Robert Brokamp
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 12 Sep 2022 20:00:05 +0000ESPN Isn't Going Anywhere
Disney promoted upcoming movies and Disney+ programming at the D23 Expo, but CEO Bob Chapek's comments about ESPN caught Wall Street's attention.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Why Disney spinning off ESPN wouldn't be the same as eBay spinning off PayPal
- Live sports driving ad rates (and audience figures) higher
- Major retailers continuing to invest, despite recent challenges
(17:08) Marc Rapport talks with Joseph Ori, executive managing director at Paramount Capital Corporation, about commercial real estate trends and the red-hot industrial market.
Stocks mentioned: DIS, DKNG, EBAY, PYPL, WMT, TGT, AMZN, DRI, HD, PLD, DRE
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Marc Rapport, Joseph Ori
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Spencer Daniel
Sun, 11 Sep 2022 15:00:09 +0000Aswath Damodaran on Valuation, Inflation, Bezos, and Musk
If you know youre impatient, then value investing isnt for you. Aswath Damodaran teaches corporate finance and valuation at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner caught up with the Dean of Valuation for a discussion on:
- Inflations new questions for investors
- Tesla valuations (from $50 billion to $1 trillion)
- Incentives, correlations, and costs in ESG scoring
- Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and the companies they've built
Stocks mentioned on the show: TSLA, MO, BLK, AMZN
If you're a member of any Motley Fool service you can access the full interview here:
https://www.fool.com/premium/live/video/4056/coverage/2022/08/31/navigating-inflation-behavioral-investing-and-mark/
Host: Tom Gardner
Guest: Aswath Damodaran
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan
Sat, 10 Sep 2022 16:00:45 +0000Ancient Philosophers, Modern Investing Wisdom
Do you really own your stocks? The stoics might suggest otherwise. Ricky Mulvey and Brian Stoffel serve up an introduction to stoicism, and why these philosophers from a few thousand years ago have practical advice for investors today. They discuss:
- Fundamentals of stoicism
- The dichotomy of control (and what it means for investors)
- Senecas complex relationship with wealth
- Company leaders that may exhibit some stoic virtues
Companies mentioned: COST, AAPL, BRK.A, BRK.B
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Brian Stoffel
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Fri, 09 Sep 2022 20:00:25 +00001 Question For Your Stocks
As profitable companies like Alphabet talk about steeling themselves for the immediate future, investors may want to ask: "How prepared are the companies in my portfolio are for the next 12-15 months?"
(0:30) Jason Moser and Emily Flippen discuss:
- DocuSign's latest results, and using the company as a lens for looking at other businesses
- Good news (finally!) for Asana shareholders
- Rough weeks for UiPath and Bilibili
- RH taking a "Tiffany-like" approach to their business
(19:45) Emily and Jason dip into the Fool Mailbag to talk about blue chip stocks, as well as:
- Stocks they've been buying over the past year
- Acquisitions they'd like to see
- Uber's upcoming robot delivery tests in Texas and California
- 2 stocks on their radar: Casey's General Stores and McCormick
Stocks discussed on the show: DOCU, GOOG, GOOGL, PYPL, ASAN, PATH, BILI, RH, MMM, SBUX, HD, TWLO, NET, OM, FTNT, CRWD, UA, UAA, LULU, NKE, ZM, UBER, CASY, MKC
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Emily Flippen
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 08 Sep 2022 20:00:19 +0000Apple is Peloton's New Nightmare
"Incremental upgrades" were the theme once again, and that seems to be working out well for Apple's customers and shareholders.
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Fitness+ becoming a serious problem for Peloton
- Apple not raising prices (in the U.S.) on the new iPhones
- Tim Cook reminding us of his ability to be "a stone cold assassin"
(13:22) Jason Moser and Matt Frankel do a "medium dive" on Boston Omaha, a small-cap holding company focused on billboards, bonds, broadband, and its asset management company.
Stocks mentioned: AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, PTON, BOC
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Engineers: Dan Boyd
Wed, 07 Sep 2022 20:00:49 +00003 CEOs Walk Into A Bar...
It's CEO Day! (Ok, not really, but CEOs were very much in the news today.)
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Target eliminating a long-standing policy to extend Brian Cornell's job as CEO for 3 more years
- Starbucks' plan to spend the next six months onboarding CEO-in-waiting Laxman Narasimhan
(17:50) Ricky Mulvey talks with Entrepreneur Magazine editor-in-chief Jason Feifer about key takeaways from his new book Build for Tomorrow: Embrace Change, Adapt Fast, and Future-Proof Your Career and Life.
Stocks mentioned: TGT, SBUX, DIS, SQ, BRDS, NFLX
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Jason Feifer
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 06 Sep 2022 20:00:00 +0000Europe's Energy Challenge
The energy situation in Europe is getting more challenging.
Finland's economic affairs minister
(0:12) Bill Mann discusses:
- CVS Health buying Signify Health for $8 billion in cash
- Finland's minister of economic affairs comparing Europe's energy situation to the collapse of Lehman Brothers
- How his investing outlook has been affected
(14:54) Nick Sciple joins Alison Southwick for an overview of the energy industry.
(We opened the show with the tragic news of Bed Bath & Beyond CFO Gustavo Arnal taking his own life. If you are having suicidal thoughts, contact the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline at 988 for support and assistance from a trained counselor.)
Stocks mentioned: CVS, SGFY
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Nick Sciple
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 04 Sep 2022 15:00:37 +0000Knowing When To Quit
Annie Duke was a professional poker player before retiring in 2012. Now, she is a decision-making consultant for a venture capital firm and author of the upcoming book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.
Morgan Housel interviewed Duke in front of a live audience about:
- Key differences between patience and stubbornness
- How a quitter created Slack
- Avoiding the sunk cost fallacy
- How pre-mortems can make you a better investor
Host: Morgan Housel
Guest: Annie Duke
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Sat, 03 Sep 2022 16:00:39 +0000Expectations Investing with Michael Mauboussin
Michael Mauboussin is an adjunct professor of finance at the Columbia Business School and the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Bill Mann interviewed Mauboussin in front of a live audience about a range of investing topics, including:
- The approach of "expectations investing" and how to apply it
- Why a company's base case for growth is so important
- Pelotons faulty growth predictions
- Businesses with real option value
Companies mentioned: SBUX, PTON, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, WMT, TGT
Host: Bill Mann
Guest: Michael Mauboussin
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks
Fri, 02 Sep 2022 20:02:53 +0000Fall Preview for Investors
With four months left in 2022, what should investors be focusing on?
(0:30) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss:
- Getting ready to "eat the volatility"
- Why they're watching holiday shopping and the Fed's language
- Meta Platforms and Lululemon need a strong end to the year
- Capital allocation they want to see
- 2 stocks that are still expensive (despite their recent drops)
- 2 stocks looking attractive at their current price
- Ideas for new consumer product innovations
(19:45) Best-selling author Dan Pink shares insights from his latest book, The Power of Regret: How Looking Backward Moves Us Forward, including:
- How embracing regret can improve our lives
- Key lessons for investors
- What Julius Caesar and Elmo can teach us about self-reflection
For more about Dan and his latest book, visit http://danpink.com
Stocks discussed on the show: META, LULU, ZM, CMG, CRM, OKTA, ABNB, TWLO, CHWY, PEP, COOK
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Jason Moser, Dan Pink
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Thu, 01 Sep 2022 20:00:32 +0000Wake Me Up When September Ends
When it comes to the stock market, the 1st day of September is looking an awful lot like the entire month of August.
(0:25) Jason Moser discusses:
- Okta shares falling 30% as the company deals with ongoing challenges integrating its acquisition of former rival Auth0
- Snap's restructuring plans, layoffs, and increased focus on revenue growth, user growth, and augmented reality
- Five Below's stock getting a boost from optimism for the discount retailer's plans for the holidays
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Wed, 31 Aug 2022 20:20:45 +000012 Free Resources for Investors
Time for some freebies! Chris Hill and Ricky Mulvey discuss some of the best investing resources that wont cost you a penny. Some youll probably know and some you may not. Here's the full list:
Websites & Writers:
Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/
EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch
Glassdoor: https://www.glassdoor.com/
YouTube (We know you know how to find it, but this is a FULL resource list): https://www.youtube.com/
SatPost by Trung Phan: https://trungphan.substack.com/
The Irrevant Investor: https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/
Aswath Damodaran Courses: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/home.htm
Podcasts:
Check Your Balances: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/check-your-balances/id1551991071
Plain English with Derek Thompson: https://www.theringer.com/plain-english-with-derek-thompson-podcast
The Watch: https://www.theringer.com/the-watch
Library Stuff:
Hoopla: https://www.hoopladigital.com
Libby: https://www.overdrive.com/apps/libby
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Tue, 30 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +00001 Hidden Tech Stock, 92 Birthday Candles for Warren Buffett
Day 2 and we're live (again) from FoolFest 2022!
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Why Walmart is the un-tech tech stock
- Interview highlights from investor Michael Mauboussin and author Annie Duke
- How Warren Buffett can (or should) celebrate his 92nd birthday
Stocks mentioned: WMT, BRK-A, BRK-B
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Tim Beyers
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Mon, 29 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Unexpected Inflation, More Acquisitions, VC Mindset
We're live from FoolFest 2022 and we've got highlights from the day so far!
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- How the cost of power is putting English pubs in danger
- The specific type of acquisition he expects to see more of
- Deals in today's market
- Takeaways from an interview with venture capital investor Jenny Abramson, founder of Rethink Impact
Stocks mentioned: GOOG, GOOGL, CRM, DPZ, DIS
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sun, 28 Aug 2022 15:00:00 +0000YouTubes Rocky Road to the Top
Googles acquisition of YouTube is now remembered as one of the most successful tech acquisitions ever, but that result was far from obvious in 2006.
Bloomberg reporter Mark Bergen is the author of the upcoming book Like, Comment, Subscribe. Inside YouTubes Chaotic Rise to World Domination. Dylan Lewis caught up with Bergen to talk about:
- YouTubes Forrest Gump-like tendency to be a part of world-changing events
- The platforms complicated relationship with its creator base
- One missed opportunity around kids and education
- The acquisition of YouTube, and its early days at Google
Stocks mentioned: GOOG, GOOGL, META
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guest: Mark Bergen
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks
Sat, 27 Aug 2022 16:00:00 +0000David Gardner on Investing During Tough Markets
2022 has been a challenging year for stocks in general, and rule-breaker stocks specifically. But the companies you buy during difficult times can become the best investments you make.
Chris Hill talks with David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool and Chief Rule Breaker, about:
- Maintaining a net buyer mindset during a downturn
- 2 books that can help you improve your investing mindset
- Investing lessons from Zooms short strange trip
Stocks mentioned: ZM, GOOG, GOOGL, SPCE
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: David Gardner
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks
Fri, 26 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Fed Chief Speaks, Wall Street Reacts
Strong words from Federal Reserve chairman Powell sent stocks down on Friday.
(0:30) Jason Moser and Emily Flippen discuss:
- Why long-term investors should not be surprised by Powell's comments
- Snowflake's strong week
- Zoom Video shares falling to a 2-year low
- Ulta Beauty's strong 2nd-quarter sending shares close to an all-time high
- Amazon making headlines for what it is NOT planning to do
- The latest from Peloton, Electronic Arts, Nvidia, Salesforce, and Intuit
(19:45) Maria Gallagher talks with Harvard Business School professor Ranjay Gulati about key insights from his book, Deep Purpose: The Heart and Soul of High-Performance Companies.
(29:45) Emily and Jason answer listener questions about Quidelortho Corp. and Berkshire-Hathaway, and share two stocks on their radar: Doximity and Autodesk
Our annual investing conference is free for Motley Fool members!
For more details go to http://Fool.com/FoolFest.
Stocks discussed on the show: SNOW, ZM, PTON, ULTA, AMZN, EA, NVDA, CRM, INTU, ETSY, QDEL, BRK.A, BRK.B, ADSK, DOCS
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Jason Moser, Maria Gallagher, Ranjay Gulati
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 25 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Conference Preview!
We're hours away from the official start of FoolFest 2022 (our annual investing conference) and we've got a preview of coming attractions!
(0:21) Dylan Lewis discusses:
- Setting the agenda for stock investors
- Why we're looking forward to hearing from Michael Mauboussin and Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks
- Highlights from the event we'll be bringing to the podcast
FoolFest is free for Motley Fool members. If you're not yet a member, just go to fool.com/foolfest to sign up for Stock Advisor and register for the event.
If you're already a member of ANY Motley Fool service go to foolfest.fool.com to register.
Stocks mentioned: TREX
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Dylan Lewis
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Peloton: Some Assembly Required
Amazon becomes the first partner to sell Peloton's equipment and apparel on their own site.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The upside potential for Peloton
- Whether Peloton may become part of Amazon's Prime membership offerings
- Toll Brothers blaming supply chain and labor shortages for a cut in guidance
- Nordstrom's challenges with inventory and family ownership
(11:31) Jeremy Bowman and Jason Hall engage in a Bull vs. Bear debate over Beyond Meat. Who won the debate? You can cast your vote in our poll on Twitter @MotleyFoolMoney.
Stocks mentioned: PTON, AMZN, TOL, JWN, BYND, YUM
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000The Triumph of Adding to Your Winners
How would you react if the first company you bought shares of went bankrupt within three years?
(0:21) Matt Argersinger discusses:
- The rise and sudden fall of Wang Laboratories
- Why his search for "the next Warren Buffett" ended badly
- Amazon and The Home Depot sharing discipline as a common business trait
- How he overcame the challenge of adding to his winners
Stocks mentioned: BH, SAM, AAPL, AMZN, HD, MELI, EBAY
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Matt Argersinger
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Mon, 22 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Cooking with Stocks
Inspiration for great investments can come from anywhere, including your childhood kitchen.
As we head into the dog days of August, we're sharing "origin story" conversations with some of the investors you've heard on this show.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The important (and very different) roles his parents played in his investing life
- 1st stock he ever bought
- How the worst stock he ever bought is now the property of JP Morgan Chase
- The proverbial "one that got away"
- The dividend aristocrat that takes him back to his childhood
Stocks mentioned: CSCO, JPM, MKC, NFLX, APPH, AMZN
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sun, 21 Aug 2022 15:00:50 +0000Mina Kimes on NFL Business, Underrated Stats, and Starting on Wall Street
Before her current job as an NFL analyst for ESPN, Mina Kimes broke into journalism on Wall Street. Host of the popular football podcast "The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny", she shares:
- her move from Bloomberg to ESPN
- insights on the business of the NFL
- the NFL entering the streaming video wars
- the stories she's watching this season
- stats that fantasy football owners might want to keep an eye on
You can find "The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny" on your favorite podcast app.
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Mina Kimes
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sat, 20 Aug 2022 16:00:16 +0000Small Cap Investing 201
Institutional money is not invited to this party. Bill Mann and Ricky Mulvey continue their series on small cap investing, one area where individual investors have a shot at beating the market. They look at the stories behind some companies you know (and ones you probably dont), and discuss:
- How to discover new small cap opportunities
- Metrics that can tell you a lot about a companys future
- Small caps for chicken wing lovers and fans of workers' comp insurance
Stocks discussed: CPNG, WING, RENT, RRGB, EIG, CTAS, PENN, NWINF
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Bill Mann
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Annie Franks
Fri, 19 Aug 2022 08:00:00 +0000Retail's Big Story, Executive Shake-ups, Pizza Deconstructed
Details about The Federal Reserve's meeting in July sent stocks to their first losing week in a month.
(0:30) Emily Flippen and Ron Gross discuss:
- Expectations around more interest rate hikes in the near future
- "Inventory" being the key story around big retailers like Walmart and Target
- Deere's mixed 3rd-quarter results and potential for a bright future
- The incredible roller coaster for Bed Bath and Beyond shareholders this week
- Foot Locker's surprising 2nd-quarter results and new CEO
- The latest from Home Depot, Lowe's, and Starbucks
(19:45) Ricky Mulvey talks with Bloomberg entertainment industry reporter Lucas Shaw about Warner Brothers Discovery, and how the media conglomerate is consolidating and evolving.
(32:50) Emily and Ron analyze the latest innovation from Papa John's and share two stocks on their radar: Rover Group and American Tower
Stocks discussed on the show: WMT, TGT, HD, LOW, DE, BBBY, SBUX, FL, WBD, DIS, PARA, PZZA, AMT, ROVR
Our annual investing conference is free for Motley Fool members! For more details go tohttp://Fool.com/FoolFest.
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross, Lucas Shaw
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 18 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Airlines, Housing, and Your Wardrobe
Home sales fell nearly 6% in July.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The challenge for 1st-time home buyers
- Why he prefers investing in residential real estate through home improvement businesses (rather than home builders)
- The airline industry's woeful track record on share buybacks
- "Is this the best use of capital?" being a question to ask about any share buyback announcement
(12:37) Asit Sharma and Deidre Woollard discuss the growing trend of 2nd-hand fashion and the opportunities for companies involved.
Our annual investing conference is free for Motley Fool members and just 12 days away! For more details go to http://Fool.com/FoolFest.
Stocks mentioned: HD, LOW, DAL, UAL, AAL, LUV, BRK.A, BRK.B, TDUP, LEVI, NKE, REAL, ETSY
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma, Deidre Woollard
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Wed, 17 Aug 2022 20:00:23 +0000Does Spotify Have A Moat?
Big Retail Earnings Week continues with the latest results from Target and Lowe's.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Target's 2nd-quarter profit falling nearly 90% compared to last year
- Silver linings within Target's results
- Lowe's posting a quintessential "mixed" quarter
- CEO Marvin Ellison's steady leadership
(11:05) Does Spotify have a moat against Apple? Travis Hoium joins Ricky Mulvey for a "medium dive" on the streaming audio business.
Our annual investing conference is free for Motley Fool members and just 12 days away! For more details go tohttp://Fool.com/FoolFest.
Stocks mentioned: TGT, LOW, SPOT, AAPL, AMZN
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Travis Hoium
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Tue, 16 Aug 2022 20:00:20 +0000The Quotable Mr. Buffett
Big Retail starts to report earnings and the news is good (so far).
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Walmart exceeded lowered expectations for the 2nd quarter
- CEO Doug McMillon's comments on the new customers that drove results
- Home Depot passing inflation costs onto customers (and not missing a beat)
- How the expectations bar has been raised for Target and Lowe's
(13:37) Warren Buffett's quotations hold meaning for investors, regardless of their portfolio size. Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp and a host of Fool investors share their favorite Buffett quotes and why they're relevant.
Stocks mentioned: WMT, HD, LOW, TGT, BRK.A, BRK.B
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Buck Hartzell, Alyce Lomax, Scott Phillips, Anand Chokkavelu
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 15 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Cash doesnt lie. Pelotons Predicament
Peloton announces more layoffs and store closings.
(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- How challenging Peloton's balance sheet is right now
- Why Peloton will almost certainly have to raise money
- The retail landscape when some of the biggest companies are set to report earnings
- Why Costco is his favorite retail stock (followed closely by Home Depot)
(18:41) Some companies are pulling back on investments, but others aren't stopping. Ricky Mulvey and Sanmeet Deo look at some businesses playing offense in a tough environment.
Stocks mentioned: PTON, WMT, TGT, HD, LOW, COST, SHOP, AXON, XPOF, NFLX, TTD
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jim Gillies, Sanmeet Deo
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 14 Aug 2022 15:00:00 +0000Residential Real Estate is Cooling, Not Crashing
Build-to-rent housing is taking off and more home contracts are falling through. Were probably not headed for another 2008 in the housing market, but it sure is weird out there. Weve got two views on residential real estate, from renting and home lending.
Rent CEO Jon Ziglar joined Motley Fool Contributor Matt Frankel for a discussion about:
- The numbers behind rent increases.
- The rise of build-to-rent housing.
- How the rental landscape shifted over COVID.
Brandon Snow, Executive Director, at Ally Bank caught up with Motley Fool Contributor Marc Rapport for a chat about the residential real estate market, and why more home contracts are falling through.
Stocks mentioned: RDFN, HHC, ALLY
Hosts: Matt Frankel, Marc Rapport
Guests: Jon Ziglar, Brandon Snow
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Brandon Gentry, Spencer Daniel, Michael Schweitzer
Sat, 13 Aug 2022 16:00:00 +0000Small Cap Investing 101
This is the fun part of being a stock investor.
Ricky Mulvey and Bill Mann, Director of Small Cap Research at The Motley Fool kick off their series on small cap investing. They discuss:
- Why small cap investors have an opportunity to beat the market.
- The metrics that really matter for small caps.
- Spotting B.S. from younger companies.
- One small cap trend catching our attention.
Stocks mentioned: ANET, RDFN, CWH, NFLX, AMZN, CHD
Additional resource: 4 Steps to Find Small-Cap Stocks (fool.com)
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Bill Mann
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks
Fri, 12 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000The New Bull Market
This week the Nasdaq officially entered bull market territory.
(0:30) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss:
- July CPI and how lower-than-expected inflation fueled a market rally
- Axon Enterprises posting record revenue in Q2
- Marqeta founder Jason Gardner stepping down as CEO
- Drama between Unity Software, AppLovin, and Ironsource
- The latest from Disney, Upstart Holdings, Sweetgreen and The Trade Desk
(19:45) Tim Beyers talks with Marsha Barnes, founder & CEO of The Finance Bar, about the mindset traps that can keep people from investing and how to avoid them.
(30:15) Emily and Jason analyze Nvidia pre-announcing their earnings, as well as:
- Domino's Pizza exiting Italy
- A listener's question about Intel
- Two stocks on their radar: Sonos and Masimo
Stocks discussed on the show: DIS, AXON, MQ, U, APPLOVIN, IS, SG, TTD, NVDA, DPZ, INTC, MASI, SONO
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Jason Moser, Tim Beyers, Marsha Barnes
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 11 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Disney Passes Netflix
The House of Mouse is firing on all cylinders, and now its total number of subscribers for Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ is greater than Netflix.
Dylan Lewis and Maria Gallagher (00:21) discuss:
- Disneys pricing power and streaming fatigue.
- How Coinbase is faring through a Crypto Winter.
- What Softbank is telling investors about the private markets.
Plus, Nick Sciple interviews Tim Johnston, Co-Founder of Li-Cycle Holdings (15:41), a lithium-ion battery recycler. They discuss how Li-Cycle can meet some of the growing demand for the metals that go into electric cars, and the companys partnerships with major energy providers.
Stocks mentioned: DIS, NFLX, COIN, UBER, SFTBY, LICY
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Maria Gallagher, Nick Sciple, Tim Johnston
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Wed, 10 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000This Is When Amazing Companies Are Born
While some tech companies announce lay-offs, others are posting blowout earnings.
(00:21) Deidre Woollard and Tim Beyers discuss:
- How a decrease in consumer spending is hitting SaaS companies in unexpected ways.
- Why The Trade Desk is thriving in a tough environment.
- A cautious view on tech layoffs (and why we arent hitting the panic button).
- Why Walmart might join the streaming wars.
- A brilliant, tiny company thats not getting enough attention from investors.
Plus, (15:00) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger look at how companies are managing their share count, and one homebuilder thats outperformed Amazon for more than a decade.
Stocks mentioned: DDOG, TTD, WMT, SNAP, GRPN, JAMF, META, NVR, LOW, NVDA, AMZN
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Tim Beyers, Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 09 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000The Wrong Side of The Learning Curve
Chips, and the companies that make and use them, dominate the business news.
(0:25) Bill Mann discusses:
- Micron Technology cutting guidance while also announcing a $40 billion investment in the U.S.
- How Micron's current picture is similar to Nvidia's
- Take-Two Interactive continuing its rough year by lowering guidance
- Allbirds shares falling 23% as the young company learns some harsh lessons about business and growth
(13:57) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp look to "The Great Resignation" to find examples of what job-seekers should consider if they think we're heading for a recession.
Stocks mentioned: MU, NVDA, TTWO, BIRD, MCD, WMT
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 08 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Shopify: Bull vs. Bear
What's the optimal degree of concentration in your portfolio?
(0:25) Jason Moser discusses:
- Nvidia warning that 2nd-quarter revenue will be lower than they'd previously guided
- Why Nvidia's long-term thesis appears to be intact
- A listener's question about whether to sell some winners in his portfolio
(12:31) Shopify's down 70% this year. Does the former high-flier have enough of a moat to fend off the likes of Amazon? Ryan Henderson and Jose Najarro join Ricky Mulvey in a bull vs. bear debate over Shopify.
Who made the better argument?
Vote in our Twitter poll @MotleyFoolMoney
Stocks mentioned: NVDA, SHOP, AMZN
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Ryan Henderson, Jose Najarro
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 07 Aug 2022 15:00:00 +0000The War for Your Wallet
"We want a cashless society."
That's what Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said in 2019. And while the war on cash may be a strong trend for investors, it's also important to understand the implications of a world that only takes cards (or Apple Pay). Jason Moser caught up with Brett Scott, author of the new book Cloudmoney: Cash, Cards, Crypto, and the War for Our Wallets to discuss:
- Incentives in the war on cash
- How money transforms when it moves from your wallet to a Venmo account
- Why cash is like an emergency staircase
- How COVID changed the way we use money
Stocks mentioned: BAC, V, PYPL, SQ, MA
Host: Jason Moser
Guest: Brett Scott
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sat, 06 Aug 2022 16:00:00 +0000Do CEOs Need Term Limits?
What does it take to be a great CEO in 2022? Leading with a True North, and breaking down some of the crusty hierarchical structures. Some leaders get it, and some really dont. During Bill Georges tenure at Medtronic, the companys market cap rose from $1 billion to $60 billion. He believes that leading with authenticity is one of the reasons he was able to help do that. Ricky Mulvey caught up with George to discuss his forthcoming book, True North: Leading Authentically in Today's Workplace as well as:
- How Best Buy CEO Corie Barry pivoted during the pandemic
- Mark Zuckerberg vs Satya Nadella
- Why more companies may benefit from giving CEOs a term limit
- Mary Barras big goals at General Motors
- How to find your own True North
Stocks mentioned: MDT, MSFT, META, BBY, VMEO, GM
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Bill George
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Fri, 05 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Rise of the Machines, Jobs, and Earnings
The U.S. private sector has added nearly 6 million jobs in the past year.
(0:30) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- The unemployment rate falling to 3.5%
- Demand for cold beverages driving Starbucks' latest quarter
- PayPal getting back to basics
- MercadoLibre's blowout earnings
- The latest from Cloudflare, Zillow, and Twilio
(19:45) Jason and Matt analyze Amazon buying iRobot for $1.7 billion in cash, as well as:
- Simon Property Group's latest results
- Uber's record revenue in the 2nd quarter
- eBay's surprisingly profitable business
- Two stocks on their radar: Procore Technologies and Stanley Black & Decker
Sign up for Stock Advisor at http://fool.com/foolfest and youll get a complimentary digital pass to our 2-day investing conference August 29 & 30!
(If you're already a Motley Fool member looking for details on the conference, go here - [http://foolfest.fool.com)]http://foolfest.fool.com)
Stocks discussed on the show: SBUX, PYPL, MELI, NET, Z, ZG, TWLO, AMZN, IRBT, SPG, UBER, EBAY, CMG, HD, PCOR, SWK
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 04 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Time to Buy Industrial REITs?
Global travel, comfortable footwear, and industrial REITs are on the menu. Pull up a chair!
(0:25) Maria Gallagher discusses:
- Mixed 2nd-quarter results from Booking Holdings
- Why CEO Glenn Fogel's declaration about upcoming record revenue may be grounded in reality
- Crocs struggling with gross margin pressure and inventory management
- Whether buying the Hey Dude line of footwear was a good use of capital
(10:41) Amazon's decision to sub-lease warehouse space caused some industrial REITs to fall. Deidre Woollard and Matt Argersinger discuss the potential for buying opportunities in this group.
Stocks mentioned: BKNG, ABNB, CROX, WMT, TGT, STAG, EGP, PLD, RHP, PEB
Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Maria Gallagher, Deidre Woollard, Matt Argersinger
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 03 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000"A horrible use of $2 billion."
Airbnb's record bookings in the 2nd quarter weren't enough to boost the stock higher. Why?
(0:25) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Airbnb's highly questionable decision to allocate $2 billion for a share buyback plan
- Match Group shares hitting a new low as the business clearly has work to do
- MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor stepping down after the company reports an eye-popping loss of $94 a share
Sign up for Stock Advisor at http://fool.com/foolfest and youll get a complimentary digital pass to our FoolFest 2022, our 2-day investing conference!
(13:35) Ricky Mulvey talks with WSJ tech columnist Christopher Mims about Meta Platforms, Apple, and how companies are really using artificial intelligence.
Stocks discussed on the show: ABNB, MTCH, BMBL, MSTR, META, AAPL
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Christopher Mims
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 02 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000Cybersecurity, Heavy Equipment, Social Media
What do Caterpillar, Arista Networks, and Pinterest have in common? 2nd-quarter earnings reports!
(0:25) Bill Mann discusses:
- Global supply chain issues (understandably) affecting Caterpillar's results
- How dividend-seeking investors should think about Caterpillar
- Stellar results from Arista Networks and its longtime CEO Jayshree Ullal
- Pinterest shares popping on user numbers and the backing of activist investor Elliott Management
Sign up for Stock Advisor at http://fool.com/foolfest and youll get a complimentary digital pass to our FoolFest 2022, our 2-day investing conference!
(13:51) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk about the indicators commonly associated with recessions and which ones they're watching.
Stocks discussed on the show: CAT, ANET, PINS, TWTR
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 01 Aug 2022 20:00:00 +0000How to Be Less Distracted (as an investor)
Two stocks we recently covered on the show are back in the news.
(0:22) Jason Moser discusses:
- Outset Medical shares rising 20% on its announcement regarding shipments
- How the FDA's thinking and Outset Medical's are aligned
- Pepsi taking a $550 million stake in energy drink maker Celsius Holdings
(14:08) Ricky Mulvey talks with Asit Sharma about becoming less distracted as an investor, and an insurance company with a very clear focus.
Stocks mentioned: OM, CELH, KO, PEP, GOOG, GOOGL, SNAP, KNSL, MSTR
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 31 Jul 2022 15:00:00 +0000Ferrari, Tesla, and the Future of Cars
Eddie Alterman really likes cars. He is the Chief Brand Officer of Hearst Autos and was the editor-in-chief of Car & Driver. Altermans new podcast is called Car Show! with Eddie Alterman. He joined Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- Why autonomous cars feel farther away today than in 2017
- One way that Tesla could become the new Standard Oil
- Ferraris strategy toward electric cars
- Why traditional carmakers may not get enough credit from investors
- Cadillacs with dry bars and LP record players
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Eddie Alterman
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Stocks: BMWYY, TSLA, F, GM, BA, POAHY, RACE, HYMTF
Sat, 30 Jul 2022 16:00:00 +0000Summer Q&A: 48% Dividend Yield, FinTech, Small Cap Energy Stocks
You've got question so we rounded up a wide range of Fools with some answers! In this summer mailbag were answering listener voicemails and emails about:
- Whether a stock paying a 48% dividend yield is real or a mirage
- Lesser-known energy and tech companies that may be worth your attention
- How the student-loan pause is impacting SoFi
- Saving in a 401(k) and being a stock investor
Got a question for the show? Leave us a voicemail at 703-254-1445.
Stocks mentioned: MDB, SOFI, STEM, ZIM, FLNC, ENPH
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Robert Brokamp, Tim Beyers, Matt Argersinger, Matt Frankel, Jim Mueller
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Fri, 29 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +00004 Tech Titans Boost Stocks
Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon provide a welcome lift to the market.
(0:30) Andy Cross and Ron Gross discuss:
- The Fed raising interest rates and GDP contracting
- Apple and Amazon surprising to the upside
- Microsoft's cloud division delivering again
- Shopify's relative attractiveness as a stock
- Meta Platforms warning investors
(19:45) Andy and Ron discuss Chipotle's impressive ability to raise prices, as well as:
- McDonald's stock closing in on a new high
- The war on cash with Visa and Mastercard
- Diageo wrapping up a strong year
- The latest from Etsy and Roku
- Unilever shutting down the Choco Taco
- Two stocks on their radar: Masimo and NextEra Energy
Sign up for Stock Advisor at http://fool.com/foolfest and youll get a complimentary digital pass to our biggest member event of the year!
(If you're already a Motley Fool member looking for details on this year's FoolFest investing conference, go here - foolfest.fool.com)
Stocks discussed on the show: AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, SHOP, META, CMG, MCD, ETSY, ROKU, V, MA, DEO, UL, MASI, NEE
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Andy Cross, Ron Gross
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 28 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +00003 Stocks Were Pitching
Just because it's earnings season doesn't mean we don't still have stock pitches for your consideration!
(0:22) Maria Gallagher discusses:
- Meta Platforms latest results in the midst of its transition
- CEO Mark Zuckerberg's blunt comments on guidance
- Etsy's positive results (and stock reaction)
(11:55) TMF's investing interns wrap up their summer by pitching Jason Moser on the bull case for three different stocks.
Stocks mentioned: META, MSFT, ETSY, COST, PENN, TSCO
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Maria Gallagher, Jason Moser, Disha Chanana, Mason Tyndall, Kaitlyn Killeen
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 27 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Big Tech Bounces Back
Microsoft and Alphabet didn't disappoint with their latest quarterly results.
(0:22) Bill Mann discusses:
- Microsoft having tough comps, with the cloud division shining once again
- Alphabet proving its resilience
- Chipotle continuing to raise prices and profits
(12:54) Ricky Mulvey talks with Jack Caporal about The Motley Fool's latest research into crypto scams and how you can avoid them.
Stocks mentioned: WMT, TGT, AMZN, COST, SHOP
ETH, SOL
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Jack Caporal
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 26 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Walmart Warns, Shopify Stumbles
Retail (physical and digital) is squarely in the spotlight.
(0:22) Jason Moser discusses:
- Walmart cutting guidance for the quarter and full fiscal year
- The ripple effect for shares of Amazon, Costco, and Target
- Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke's memo to employees about layoffs
- Whether Shopify's falling stock, close to a 3-year low, looks like a buying opportunity
(14:41) Robert Brokamp talks with financial psychologist Dr. Brad Klontz about why we're all a little crazy about money.
Stocks mentioned: WMT, TGT, AMZN, COST, SHOP
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Robert Brokamp, Dr. Brad Klontz
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 25 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000"Search is forever."
Weber's CEO gets the boot from the board of directors.
(0:22) Jason Moser discusses:
- Why more company CEOs are on the hot seat
- Expectations heading into a big week for Big Tech earnings
- Why the idea that "search is forever" should give Alphabet shareholders comfort
(12:57) Ricky Mulvey talks with Jennifer Moss, author of "The Burnout Epidemic" about one tech company that's nailing the hybrid transition.
Stocks mentioned: WEBR, AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, META, OKTA, HPQ
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Jennifer Moss
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 24 Jul 2022 15:00:00 +0000Generational Tailwind for the U.S. Economy
The Federal Reserve could hike short-term interest rates to 4%, and that still might not be enough to cool inflation. Rich Lyons is the first Chief Innovation and Entrepreneurship Officer for the University of California, Berkeley. Before that, he spent a decade as the dean of Berkleys Haas School of Business. He joined Motley Fool Contributor Rachel Warren to discuss:
- How the Federal Reserve could hit a hard break with higher interest rates
- A venture capital view about the future of crypto
- How universities are creating a generational tailwind for the economy
Host: Rachel Warren
Guest: Rich Lyons
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Brandon Gentry
Sat, 23 Jul 2022 16:00:00 +0000Revisiting the IPO Boom
Editor's note: This episode was recorded before news of the Coinbase's insider trading case was made public on Friday.
2021 was a milestone year for companies going public. In 2022, the tide turned. Dylan Lewis and Brian Feroldi look back on the IPO boom and discuss:
- Reasons why companies go public
- Newly-public companies that may never come back to IPO levels
- Questions for investors to ask even when financials look strong
- The trends that hit Robinhood and Rocket Mortgage
- Lessons from pre-revenue companies that went public
Stocks mentioned: COIN, HOOD, RKT, NKLA, SPCE, JOBY, RIVN, LCID, SEMR, INTU
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guest: Brian Feroldi
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Fri, 22 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Snap's Ripple Effect, Healthcare Stocks, and Streaming "Coopetition"
Shares of Snap fell nearly 40% on Friday, taking bigger companies down with it.
(0:30) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- Snap's incredible fall over the past year
- How worried shareholders of Alphabet and Meta Platforms should be
- Intuitive Surgical's latest results
- The latest from Twitter, Amazon, and Johnson & Johnson
(20:15) Jason and Matt discuss the latest results from Netflix, as well as:
- A wide-ranging discussion of the connected TV landscape
- The "coopetition" that exists among major players like Disney, Apple, The Trade Desk and Roku
- Domino's Pizza's streak of global growth ending
- Whether Shopify is a buy
- Two stocks on their radar: Etsy and Berkshire-Hathaway
Got a question about investing? Our email address is podcasts@fool.com
Stocks discussed on the show: SNAP, PINS, META, GOOG, GOOGL, TWTR, ISRG, AMZN, JNJ, NFLX, MSFT, TTD, ROKU, AAPL, DPZ, SHOP, ETSY, BRK.A, BRK.B
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 21 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Tesla Revs Up, Amazon Invests In Healthcare
Tesla's profits surprise Wall Street, and Amazon buys 1Life Healthcare for $3.9 billion.
(0:22) Bill Mann discusses:
- Tesla's margins being compressed and STILL being the envy of rival automakers
- How Tesla is (and isn't) comparable to Netflix
- Amazon using "pocket change" to make its 3rd-largest acquisition
(11:40) Jason Hall and Matt Frankel engage in a "Bull vs. Bear" debate over Lemonade, and both wish the AI-drive insurance company would hurry up and close its acquisition of micro-cap auto insurance company Metromile.
Stocks mentioned: TSLA, F, NFLX AMZN, ONEM, LMND, MILE
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Jason Hall, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 20 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Netflix Review, Comic-Con Preview
Turns out Netflix did NOT lose 2 million subscribers as previously predicted. (Only 970,000)
(0:22) Tim Beyers discusses:
- The market's relief that 2nd-quarter results for Netflix were "less bad"
- Why Microsoft shareholders have a stake in Netflix's success
- Twitter winning the 1st round in its legal battle with Elon Musk
(10:21) Ricky Mulvey and Catie Peiper discuss how entertainment companies have dealt with rough economic situations in the past (and how they could respond in the current environment), and preview this year's San Diego Comic-Con!
Stocks mentioned: NFLX, MSFT, TWTR, DIS, WBD, AMZN
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Catie Peiper
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 19 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000A Boring Business Beating the Market
Johnson & Johnson raises full-year guidance after delivering 3rd-quarter results.
(0:22) Jason Moser discusses:
- Highlights from JNJ's medical device and consumer health divisions
- The spinoff of consumer health coming in late 2023
- How investors can find dividend-payers to add to their portfolio
Relevant links to today's episode:
Dividend Aristocrats - https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/dividend-stocks/dividend-aristocrats/
Dividend Kings - https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/dividend-stocks/dividend-kings/
(13:20) Robert Brokamp talks David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, about the 4% rule and a common misconception about retirement spending.
Stocks mentioned: JNJ
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Robert Brokamp, David Blanchett
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 18 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000ESPN+ Is Going Higher
Disney announces a (selective) price hike to one of its core streaming services.
(0:22) Jason Moser discusses:
- The strategy of encouraging people to sign up for a bundle of Disney services
- Bob Iger, Bob Chapek, and their ongoing soap opera
- A listener's question about Cerence and the opportunity shares present today
(12:50) Tim Beyers talks with Vitaliy Katsenelson, CEO of Investment Management Associates, about his new book "Soul In The Game" and how philosophers from more than 2,000 years ago can make you a better investor today.
Got a question about stocks? Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445!
Stocks mentioned: DIS, CRNC, MSFT
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Tim Beyers, Vitaliy Katsenelson
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 17 Jul 2022 15:00:00 +0000Housing Trends w/ David Greene (BiggerPockets Real Estate)
If you're interested in real estate then David Greene, host of the BiggerPockets Real Estate podcast, is probably a familiar voice. He weighs in on:
- The current state of the housing market
- Real estate data he considers most relevant to watch
- Most common mistakes people make when listing their homes
- Best neutral colors!
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: David Greene
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Sat, 16 Jul 2022 16:00:00 +0000Dividends 201: The Payout Continues
There are plenty of reasons to love a stock with a high dividend, and plenty of questions for investors to ask. Matt Argersinger, Anthony Schiavone, and Ricky Mulvey continue their conversation about dividend investing and discuss:
- Dividend stocks that have taken a recent hit
- A potential high-yield trap
- The power of compounding dividends
Stocks mentioned: KO, WMT, SBUX, HD, TXN, MTN, STWD, MO, VALE, IRM
Additional resource: Dividend Kings - https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/dividend-stocks/dividend-kings/
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Anthony Schiavone
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Annie Franks
Fri, 15 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Fintech's Future, Underrated Investing Metrics
Earnings season has begun!
(0:30) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss:
- Latest results from the Big Banks and tough comments from JPM's CEO Jamie Dimon
- Pinterest shares rising on an activist buying 9%
- Amazon's potential for dropping in-house brands
- Unity Software buying Ironsource
- BMW launching a SWaaS (seat warmers as a service) subscription
- The latest from Microsoft, Netflix, Twitter, Disney, and The Trade Desk
(20:17) Rachel Warren and Auri Hughes talk with Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4 Payments, about the future of fintech.
(32:35) Emily and Jason answer mailbag questions about new "Night Effect" ETFs and underrated investing metrics, then share two stocks on their radar: Vail Resorts and Outset Medical.
Got a question about investing? Our email address is podcasts@fool.com
Stocks discussed on the show: JPM, WFC, C, PINS, TWTR, DIS, TTD, NFLX, MSFT, AMZN, U, IS, BMW, FOUR, SQ, PYPL, SHOP, NSPY, NIWM, OM, MTN
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Emily Flippen, Rachel Warren, Auri Hughes, Jared Isaacman
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 14 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Microsoft Wins Netflix Ad Biz
Can a $1.9 trillion company still be a dark horse? Microsoft beats the odds and wins the Netflix ad business.
(0:21) Maria Gallagher discusses:
- How Microsoft being "agnostic" helped it beat Google and Comcast
- Netflix purposefully timing this news ahead of next week's earnings
- Why she's focused on the ripple effects of Target's upcoming report
(9:13) Ricky Mulvey and Rick Munarriz discuss Celsius Holdings, an energy drink company with triple-digit growth.
Got a question about stocks? Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445!
Stocks mentioned: NFLX, GOOG, GOOGL, CMCSA, MSFT, TGT, CELH, KO, PEP, MNST
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Maria Gallagher, Rick Munarriz
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 13 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Investors Shrug Off Inflation Fears
You'd think the phrase "record inflation" would chill investors, but Wall Street seemed to shrug it off.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The prospect for more acquisitions and deploying of capital
- Optimism being suspended this earnings season
- Why he's watching homebuilders, especially Lennar
(12:29) Travel spending is heating up! Could that mean a rebound for cruise stocks? Lou Whiteman and Jamie Louko engage in a Bull vs. Bear debate over Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines.
Stocks mentioned: CSU, MSFT, CRM, LEN, RCL, CCL
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Lou Whiteman, Jamie Louko
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 12 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Former FDIC Chair on Crypto, The Fed, and Student Debt
Pepsi is not an obvious candidate if you're looking for companies with pricing power, but the latest quarter proves Pepsi's got it.
(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Pepsi's strong quarterly results in the face of inflation and other headwinds
- Gatorade and Doritos helping to fuel better-than-expected profits
- Why he's keeping a close eye on Etsy's upcoming earnings report
(10:09) Robert Brokamp talks with former FDIC chair Sheila Bair about how students can get smarter about debt and one "stressful" economic problem catching her attention.
Bonus resource - https://www.studentdebtsmarter.org
Stocks mentioned: PEP, KO, KDP, ETSY, MS, GS
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp, Sheila Bair
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 11 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Twitter in Limbo, Amazon in the Spotlight
Elon Musk and Twitter are headed to a Delaware courtroom.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- How messy the current situation is for Twitter's employees and shareholders
- The potential for another company to swoop in and buy Twitter
- Why Amazon's combination of retail and AWS make it the business he's most curious about this earnings season
(14:30) Rachel Warren talks with Matt Kolby, VP of Investor Relations for Indeed, about the trends driving today's labor market and the implications for one lesser-known tech giant.
Stocks mentioned: TWTR, CRM, AMZN, RCRUY
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Rachel Warren, Matt Kolby
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 10 Jul 2022 15:00:00 +0000Tech Trends with Qualcomms CFO
Cars and cameras are getting smarter, and that trend isnt stopping any time soon. Billions more devices are going to connect to the cloud, and that's just one trend driving tech giant Qualcomm. The company is a leader in making the chips that connect devices to the cloud. Jason Moser sat down with Qualcomms Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala to discuss:
- The growing opportunities in artificial intelligence and cloud-connected cars
- How personal computers are evolving
- One almost unlimited market opportunity
Stocks mentioned: QCOM, MSFT, TMUS, VZ
Host: Jason Moser
Guest: Akash Palkhiwala
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Michael Schweitzer
Sat, 09 Jul 2022 16:00:00 +0000Dividends 101
Warren Buffett isnt planning on paying his shareholders a dividend, but hes a big fan of getting a piece of his stocks profits. Ricky Mulvey joins The Motley Fools Matt Argersinger and Anthony Schiavone to talk about the fundamentals of dividend investing, including:
- The case for buying dividend stocks
- How to spot healthy payouts
- A few interesting income-generating opportunities
Tickers mentioned: BRK.A, BRK.B, GE, KO, MTN, VYM, VIG, NOBL, EBAY, DGX, EPR
Bonus Resource - List of Dividend Aristocrats -https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/dividend-stocks/dividend-aristocrats/
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Anthony Schiavone
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Fri, 08 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Big Tech's Latest Plans, Emerging Trends To Watch
As U.S. job growth continues, the biggest tech companies plot their next moves.
(0:30) Maria Gallagher and Jason Moser discuss:
- June's jobs report, falling gas prices, and the shifting employment landscape
- Apple and Google looking to monetize the lock screen of your phone
- Meta Platforms planning to launch a $1,000 VR headset
- A big rationale for Levi's dividend increase
- The latest from Amazon, Upstart Holdings, and GameStop
(20:17) Rachel Warren talks with Jay Jacobs, U.S. Head of Thematics and Active Equity ETFs at BlackRock, about the trends he and his team are watching in infrastructure, emerging markets, and healthcare.
(33:33) Maria and Jason answer a listener's question about Warner Bros Discovery, and share two stocks on their radar: Paycom and Procore Technologies.
Our free investing starter kit includes research on 15 stocks and 5 ETFs. Get a copy by going to http://fool.com/starterkit
Stocks discussed on the show: UPST, AMZN, JET, DASH, META, AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, TWTR, GME, LEVI, WBD, PAYC, PCOR
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Maria Gallagher, Jason Moser, Rachel Warren, Jay Jacobs
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 07 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000GameStop's Split, Peloton's Gamble, and Crafty Investments
If you hate analogies you might want to skip this episode.
(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Why GameStop's 4-for-1 stock split is like a Chinese finger trap
- Peloton's attempt at boosting employee morale and how it will cost existing shareholders
- Whether Peloton is calling a "results-based play"
- Virgin Galactic's new partnership with Boeing
(13:45) From street food carts to publicly-traded companies, Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma dig into businesses that take pride in their craftsmanship.
Got a question about stocks? Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks mentioned: GME, PTON, SPCE, BA, SONO, AAPL
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 06 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Microsoft's Deal Under Investigation
The UK's regulatory authority on competition has officially opened an investigation into Microsoft's deal to buy Activision Blizzard.
(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Why Wall Street is shrugging off the news
- What to expect when the decision is announced by September 1st
- Amazon's deal to take a small stake in GrubHub
- The prospect for more companies (e.g., Salesforce, Atlassian) to take stakes in smaller software companies
(11:51) Deidre Woollard talks with Jacob Goldstein about his recent interview with Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman, the 3% commission model, and more.
Got a question about stocks? Call the Motley Fool Money Hotline at 703-254-1445.
Stocks mentioned: MSFT, ATVI, UBSFY, AMZN, JET, CRM, TEAM, RDFN, ZG
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Deidre Woollard, Jacob Goldstein
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Tue, 05 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Comcast's Streaming Milestone (and 1 Hidden Winner)
Peacock isn't as big as Netflix or Disney+, but it continues to make progress shareholders should appreciate.
(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- NBCUniversal booking $1 billion in upfront ad revenue for Peacock
- Why The Trade Desk could be a hidden winner from Peacock's advertising growth
- Andy Jassy "celebrating" his 1st anniversary as CEO of Amazon
(13:05) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Morgan Housel about the Great Recession, what led to the financial crisis of 2008, and implications for investors today.
Stocks mentioned: CMCSA, NFLX, CHTR, TTD, AMZN, AIG
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Morgan Housel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sat, 02 Jul 2022 16:01:23 +0000Now is the Time to Focus on FI (Financial Independence)
Over the holiday weekend, we take a break from the cookouts and fireworks to focus on FI Financial Independence with Motley Fool contributor Brian Feroldi.
(0:53) Dylan Lewis and Brian Feroldi discuss:
- The core principles of FI and the different styles it can take
- Why a down market is a great time to check in on your financial independence and retirement progress
- Why its not too late to get started if you feel behind!
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Brian Feroldi
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl
Fri, 01 Jul 2022 20:00:00 +0000Mid-Year Review, Stocks with Upside Potential
Halfway through 2022 it's time for investors to see where we've been and what to look for in the 2nd half of the year. (0:30) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss:
- Investing headlines for the 1st half of the year
- Early frontrunners for "CEO of the Year"
- Who needs a stronger 2nd half of 2022
- 3 stocks poised for upside
(19:00) We're dipping into the vault for one of our favorite conversations. Recorded in front of a live audience, best-selling author David Epstein discusses Tiger Woods, predictors of success in the business world, and other takeaways from his book Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World.
Our free investing starter kit includes research on 15 stocks and 5 ETFs. Get a copy by going to http://fool.com/starterkit
Stocks discussed on the show: PFE, TTD, SBUX, TWTR, TGT, DIS, NFLX, DOCU, ADBE, MSFT, ZM, MAR, ABNB, UBER
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Ron Gross, David Epstein
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 20:00:07 +0000Powell and Inflation, Shopify's Stock Split
Inflation has been the story of 2022. We zoom in on comments from central bank leaders from yesterdays ECB Forum to see what insights we can glean.
(0:14) Dylan Lewis and John Rotonti discuss:
- Fed Chair Powells comments yesterday from the ECB Forum
- Why experts have so consistently been off on inflation
- The types of companies you want to own in an inflationary environment
- Why Shopifys stock split is less important than its share structure changes
(18:57) Ricky Mulvey and Ron Gross discuss the ins and outs of investing in a bear market and what types of companies you should be keeping an eye on.
Stocks mentioned: HD, COST, NKE, DIS, AAPL, MSFT, TGT
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: John Rotonti, Ron Gross
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl
Wed, 29 Jun 2022 20:00:01 +0000CEO Shakeups
CEOs at Pinterest and Bed, Bath, and Beyond are heading for the exits. And that may be just the beginning.
(0:31) Deidre Woollard and Tim Beyers discuss:
- Where Pinterest has room to grow.
- How stock investors should react to a CEO change.
- Nikes move to a direct-to-consumer strategy.
Rachel Warren interviews Ali Parsa, CEO of Babylon Health, a digital-first health service provider. (17:40) They discuss the companys journey going public and the exciting frontiers of genetic research.
Stocks mentioned: PINS, DOCU, BBBY, PYPL, NKE, SAP, BBLN
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Tim Beyers, Rachel Warren, Ali Parsa
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Brandon Gentry
Tue, 28 Jun 2022 20:00:00 +0000Theres Always Money in the Banana Stand!
Its not easy being a public company. Zendesk looks to go private, while acquisition battles continue to heat up.
(:21)Deidre Woollard and Jason Moser discuss:
- Stocks that could be prime acquisition targets.
- JetBlues offer for Spirit Airlines.
- Venture capital drying up, and what that means for technology innovation.
Plus,(14:46)Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp continue their series on past market declines with Morgan Housel, this time covering the dot-com bubble, and the lessons investors can pull two decades later.
Stocks mentioned: ZEN, SAVE, JBLU, ULCC, CSCO, OTLY, PTON, MSFT, IBM
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Morgan Housel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Mon, 27 Jun 2022 20:00:00 +0000Investing in the Future of Food
Chewy gets and upgrade, while Coinbase gets a big thumbs-down from investment bankers.
(:21) Asit Sharma and Maria Gallagher discuss:
- Chewys pricing power and strong recurring revenue.
- The cyclical problem facing Coinbase.
- Reliance Industries offer to buy Walgreens international stores.
A growing world population means more mouths to feed. (12:16) Deidre Woollard and Demitri Kalogeropoulos serve up three stocks, and explain how they are shaping the future of food.
Stocks mentioned: CHWY, COIN, RELIANCE, WBA, BYND, KR, DE
Host: Asit Sharma
Guests: Maria Gallagher, Deidre Woollard, Demitri Kalogeropoulos
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Sun, 26 Jun 2022 15:00:00 +0000Money Laundering 101
Corruption is a trillion-dollar drag for investors. So why doesnt it get more attention? Oliver Bullough is the author of Butler to the World: How Britain Helps the World's Worst People Launder Money, Commit Crimes, and Get Away with Anything. He joined Bill Mann, Maria Gallagher, and John Rotonti to discuss:
- The easy process of money laundering
- A look inside the business of corruption
- Super yachts, volcanic islands, and opaque legal structures
Hosts: Bill Mann, Maria Gallagher, John Rotonti
Guest: Oliver Bullough
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Natasha Hall
Sat, 25 Jun 2022 16:00:00 +00005 Stay-at-Home Stocks Revisited
Jason Moser and Matt Frankel take a look at some of the companies that soared during the pandemic, and offer some takeaways from the surge in investor interest, including:
- Pandemic stocks that got ahead of themselves
- Which stay-at-home stocks are worth a 2nd look
- How these businesses could evolve from here
Stocks mentioned: DOCU, ETSY, TDOC, PYPL, NFLX
Host: Jason Moser
Guest: Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd
Fri, 24 Jun 2022 20:00:00 +0000Welcome to the "Larry David Gif" Stock Market!
Wall Street pros and individual investors are sifting through lots of noise to find signals about the stock market. (0:30) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- The lack of clarity (at the moment) facing investors
- Former growth stocks (PayPal, Netflix, Facebook) being added to the Russell 1000 Value Index
- What the latest results from homebuilder KB Home reveal about housing
- The latest from DocuSign, Darden Restaurants, and Kellogg.
(19:00) Jim Mueller analyzes the companies competing for Netflix's ad business, opportunities in the metaverse, and Big Tech's pursuit of streaming live sports.
(33:00) Jason and Matt answer a listener's question about Activision Blizzard and share two stocks on their radar: Qualcomm and eBay.
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Stocks discussed on the show: NFLX, PYPL, META, FDX, DOCU, DRI, KBH, NVR, DHI, K, ROKU, TTD, GOOGL, RBLX, SRAD, AAPL, CMCSA, AMZN, ATVI, QCOM, EBAY
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser, Jim Mueller
Engineer: Dan Boyd
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 20:00:00 +0000Time to Buy Zoom Video?
Most restaurant businesses operate in a single category, but not Darden Restaurants. (0:25) Jason Moser discusses:
- Olive Garden driving the bulk of revenue
- A comeback by Darden's fine dining segment
- Capital decisions that we like (dividend increase!) and don't like (share buyback plan)
- Rite Aid's stock pop and raised guidance still not being enough to get us interested in buying shares
(14:41) With shares down nearly 70% over the past year, is Zoom Video a screaming buy or past its prime? Jason Hall and Ryan Henderson debate bull vs. bear!
Stocks discussed: DRI, RAD, CVS, WBA, ZM, MSFT
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Jason Hall, Ryan Henderson
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl
Wed, 22 Jun 2022 20:00:00 +0000