Forward Guidance
Mon, 25 Sep 2023 17:23:00 -0000Former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz On Crypto Regulation
Brian Quintenz, head of policy for a16z crypto and former commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), joins Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of crypto regulation. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Sat, 23 Sep 2023 19:42:00 -0000
The Bond Market Is Tanking. Is It Time To Buy? | Nanette Jacobson
Nanette Jacobson, Global Investments Strategist at Hartford Funds, joins Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook. Jacobson argues that it might be time to lean into bonds because the bonds tend to rally 13 months before the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and she and Jack Farley debate the various merits of owning bonds at this juncture in the business cycle. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Economic Outlook (09:04) Outlook On Banking System (12:45) Views On Interest Rates & Fed (25:20) China is "Cheap For A Reason" (30:14) U.S. Fiscal Stimulus (37:22) Cautious Views On Stocks (39:05) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (39:06) Debate About Bonds (45:56) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (50:52) Expensive Stocks Can Always Get More ExpensiveWed, 20 Sep 2023 22:50:12 -0000
Danielle DiMartino Booth: Jay Powell Just Went Way Off Script At September Fed Meeting
Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserves Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jay Powell Goes Off Script (16:50) Oil & Inflation (25:54) Odds Of A Liquidity Crisis Forcing The Fed To Stop QT (Danielle Doesn't Buy It!) (40:13) Normalization of Credit (46:52) Danielle's Hypothesis That March 2020 Might Not Count As A Recession (53:13) Will There Be A NBER-Declared Recession Within 24 Months (And Why)? (01:01:00) Risk Of Government ShutdownWed, 20 Sep 2023 01:00:00 -0000
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce on Regulation In Crypto, SPACs, and Money Market Funds
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce joins Jack Farley to share her views on crypto regulation and the SECs purview of it. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:39) Crypto & Transparency - What Is The SEC's Role? (07:29) What Is A "Security"? Commissioner Peirce's Views (15:00) SEC Proposal To Change Definition Of An Exchange (17:00) Crypto And Alleged "Lawlessness" (20:21) Does The SEC's Jurisdiction Begin And End With "Securities"? (23:07) Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) (26:45) Proposed Money Market Fund (MMF) Reform (29:14) Difference Between A Money Market Fund And A StablecoinMon, 18 Sep 2023 20:59:17 -0000
Jim Bianco, Mark Yusko, & Jurrien Timmer on Real Interest Rates, Banking System, and Crypto (Panel at Permissionless 2023)
Jack Farley hosts Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital, and Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, for a panel on whether the near-term macro situation will be a headwind or tailwind for crypto. Filmed on September 12, 2023, at Blockworks' Permissionless II in Austin, Texas. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Is Macro A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto? (23:41) Will Fed Keep Interest Rates "Higher For Longer"? (28:53) The Banking System (34:14) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (39:58) Final Verdict: Will Macro Be A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto (Or Does It Not Matter)?Sun, 17 Sep 2023 17:38:00 -0000
Mark Yusko: Macro "Doesn't Matter" For Crypto (Permissionless Interview)
Jack interviews Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital at Blockworks Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Macro Doesn't Matter For Crypto (05:24) 4 Main Factors That Affect Venture Capital (VC) Returns (13:59) Metcalfe's Law As A Valuation Framework (17:21) Mark Yusko: "I Am Not A Bitcoin Maximalist" (20:44) Mark Yusko: "I Am A Big China Bull"Fri, 15 Sep 2023 22:08:08 -0000
Jim Bianco: No Recession, No Landing
Jack interviews Jim Bianco of Bianco Research at Blockworks Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) No Rate Cuts If Oil Prices Stay High (06:28) Jim Bianco: The Recession Already Happened In 2022 (15:11) What Is Appropriate Level On Interest Rates (And Bond Yields) For U.S. Economy? (24:59) A "Garden Variety Recession" Hasn't Occurred In Many Decades (33:28) Household's And Corporates' Terming Out Of Debt In 2020 (34:41) Mortgage Market Is Hurting Banks (42:55) Fixed-Income Outlook: Duration Vs. Credit (45:37) Jim Bianco: Macro Will Be A Headwind For Crypto (51:54) Increased Regulatory Scrutiny For CryptoThu, 14 Sep 2023 15:08:00 -0000
Andrew Beer: Hedge Funds Charge Way, Way Too Much
Andrew Beer, managing member of DBI, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the need for drastic fee reduction in hedge-fund like return vehicles. Beer and Farley explore in depth the mysteries of trend following (also known as CTAs or managed futures) strategies, which provide investors with positive carrying uncorrelated return streams that can be very beneficial in years such as 2022, when stocks and bonds both suffered a severe drawdown. Filmed on September 6, 2023. Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:04) Alpha & Beta (02:25) What Hedge Funds Do Well (11:17) Paying High Hedge Fund Feeds Is Like "Shooting Yourself In The Foot" (14:31) The Strategy of Managed Futures (or Commodity Trading Advisors) (29:40) The Rise of the "Pod Model" In Multi-Manager Hedge Funds (39:00) Picking Hedge Fund Managers Is A Largely Hopeless Task (44:29) Many Hedge Funds Have Missed The 2023 Tech Rally (50:24) Optimal Rebalancing Between Strategies (57:53) History Of Bad Ideas In Creation of New Investment Products: "Alternative Risk Premia" (59:42) A Lof Of Academic Finance Is Insane (01:01:20) The "Value Factor" As We Once Knew It No Longer Exists (01:16:36) Ark & Cathie Wood (01:25:51) China Was "Adored" By Hedge Fund CommunityTue, 12 Sep 2023 20:00:00 -0000
Eric Basmajian: Why The U.S. Economy Hasnt Entered Recession Yet (And Why He Is Confident It Will Soon)
Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share his view on the U.S. business cycle. Basmajian notes that the 2022 decline in economic growth rate turned into a remarkable stabilization of broad coincident indicators of economic activity that began in January 2023 and persisted throughout the spring stresses in the banking system. However, he remains confident that the U.S. economy will enter a recession soon, and he discusses in detail several of his leading indicators that motivate his view. Filmed on September 7, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Link to YCharts' Webinar on September 22nd: https://ycharts.zoom.us/webinar/register/5916933495668/WN_OD3x5xyzQ7qWTrtGDChLFA Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Pre-Recession Phase Continues (06:25) Housing And Autos Are Not Slowing Down That Much (13:19) Consumer Credit Is Still Somewhat Strong (For Now) (16:17) When Will Recession Come? (23:11) Pushing Back Against The Recessionary Thesis (30:14) How Far Will Unemployment Rate Go? (32:06) Does New Bull Market In Stocks Indicate There Will Be No Recession? (36:40) Debate On Mechanics Of How Higher Interest Rates Constrain Economic Activity (39:56) Banking System And Credit Crunch (52:35) Contraction In Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Is Signalling A Recession (01:00:23) What Is Eric's Level Of Confidence That U.S. Is Indeed Headed For A Recession? (01:09:47) Outlook on Rates & Bond YieldsTue, 12 Sep 2023 18:07:00 -0000
Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The U.S. Economy? | Jeremy Schwartz & Professor Jeremy Seigel (Jacks Guest Appearance On Behind The Markets Podcast)
This is Jacks guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well as the banking system, which Jack shares his thoughts on in some depth. Recorded on September 1st, 2023. Original episode on Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley/id1194707802?i=1000626532544 Jeremy Siegels book, Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies: https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/0071800514 Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (04:58) Money Supply & Other Monetary Aggregates (07:21) Bond Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel About Non-Farm Payrolls (12:30) Professor Siegel's Short-Term Modestly Bullish View On Stocks (15:29) Stocks And The Economy (19:39) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of American Households (28:24) Jack's Views On Banking SystemFri, 08 Sep 2023 23:00:00 -0000
Milton Berg: The Stock Market Is In Trouble
When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed on September 5, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visithttps://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Milton Berg on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:09) Reviewing Milton Berg's Successful Bullish Call in January 2023 (07:23) Market Outlook Now (20:00) "This Market Is In A Lot Of Trouble (22:16) Eight Reasons To Doubt That This Bull Market Will Continue (28:05) Banking Index Often Bottoms Before General Stock Market Bull Move (30:14) High Interest Rates Are A Deflationary Force (36:26) Stock Market Not As Healthy As It Seems (56:16) Market Cycle Dates (01:05:54) Milton Berg No Longer Bullish On China (01:08:17) Anticipating the End Of This Rally (01:18:35) Bullish Call On Bank Index (01:24:13) Stocks Will Likely Decline Below Low Of October 2022, Argues Berg ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 06 Sep 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Wave of U.S. Treasury Issuance Puts Pressure On Bond Market | Prometheus Macro
On todays episode, Aahan Menon Founder of Prometheus Research joins the show for a discussion on his current macro outlook looking at the economy, growth, markets & liquidity. With a wave of U.S Treasury issuance on the horizon, Aahan explains why he now sees a perfect opportunity to be short stocks & bonds and he expects further headwinds for assets in this environment. To hear Aahan explain why, and much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Prometheus Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Progressing Through A Tightening Cycle (07:57) How To Measure Liquidity (15:51) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is On The Horizon (24:09) Is The Fed Behind The Curve? (29:10) Inflation (38:25) Credit Is Contracting, Just Not Enough... Yet (43:17) When To Shift From Short Stocks & Bonds (50:44) Private vs Public Sector Liquidity (59:41) Prometheus Research -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 05 Sep 2023 14:13:00 -0000
"Credit Shock" In Commercial Real Estate | John Toohig, Victor Calanog, and Thomas LaSalvia
Todays interview is a deep-dive into commercial real estate (CRE), an asset class which includes office, multifamily housing (apartments), hotels, data centers, malls, and more. Jack welcomes John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, Thomas LaSalvia, Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics, and Victor Calanog, Manulifes Managing Director & Global Head of Research and Strategy, Real Estate Private Markets, for a wide-ranging discussions on the challenges and opportunities within CRE, with a focus on how the recent interest rate shock has impacted property values, cash flows, interest expense, and other key metrics in the CRE world. Filmed on August 30, 2023. -- Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Follow Lets Talk Loans on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7103476860633718784/ Follow Moodys CRE Insights: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/ Moodys CRE piece on CMBS Office Loan Maturity: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/ma-cre-office-loan-maturity-monitor-office-payoffs-significantly-lag-other-property-types/ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:15) Payment Shock For Real Estate Funded With Debt Before The Fed Raised Rates (11:02 Maturity Defaults Are On The Rise (13:25) Office Sector Is By Far Facing The Biggest Challenges Vs. Other CRE Compenents (19:22) Who Owns The Equity In These CRE Deals? (22:25) Gap Between Private Valuations and Public Valuations (25:51) Higher For Longer Is Exponentially Increasing Debt Costs For Real Estate (30:03) State Of The Secondary Market For Real Estate Loans (35:14) Cash Flows Matter More Than "Loan-To-Value" (40:08) There's A Hesitation Right Now For Institutions To Take Losses (42:27) Odds Of A True Recessions vs. A "Slow-Cession" (and Soft Landing & No Landing) (45:35) How Common Is Interest Rate Hedging Among Leveraged Real Estate Investors? (48:01) Slowdown In New Originations For CRE Loans (52:46) Fundamnetals Of Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) (01:01:05) Negative Leverage In The MultiFamily Market (01:07:31) Insurance Costs Are Skyrocketing (01:10:54) Retail (example: Malls) And Hospitality (example: Hotels) (01:16:45) China (01:20:28) Closing Thoughts On U.S. Banking System (01:22:52) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 31 Aug 2023 18:06:00 -0000
David Rosenberg: A Recession Is Coming In The Next 6 Months
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year (09:27) Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative (20:20) What Causes A Recession? (24:56) How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates? (35:34) We Haven't Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet (42:02) The Politics Of Deficit Spending (47:01) There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market (59:37) How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be? (01:06:56) Fitch's AAA Downgrade (01:09:41) The Fed Has Overtightened (01:14:12) The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment (01:16:00) Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak? _____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 29 Aug 2023 21:46:00 -0000
Vincent Deluard: The Magic Money That Prevented Recession Is About To Disappear
In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of stealth stimulus would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/trading. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow StoneX on Twitter https://twitter.com/stoneX_official Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The "Stealth Stimulus" Is Over (13:15) How Much Tightening Effect Of Higher Rates Has Already Been Felt? (18:55) Making Sense of 2023 Stock Market Rally (20:59) The Second Wave Of Inflation (26:40) Is Central Banks' Inflation Target Unnecessary? (41:13) Vincent's Bull Case For Non-U.S. Assets (46:49) China (49:52) Europe (53:29) Japan (55:35) Sector Analysis: Healthcare, Tech, Energy, Financials (59:14) Bearish View On U.S. Stocks (01:02:25) Bank Outlook After Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 28 Aug 2023 22:48:22 -0000
Business Cycle Slowdown Will Intensify Into Recession | Mike Singleton
Follow Mike Singletonhttps://twitter.com/InvictusMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Singleton's Macro Process (12:47) The Excess Savings Debate (17:06) U.S. Economy Headed For Severe Recession In 2023 (19:19) The Best Time To Buy Bonds (24:06) Unemployment Rate To Go As High As 7% (48:52) The Spending Boom ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 25 Aug 2023 11:00:00 -0000
ESG: The 40 Trillion Dollar Bubble | Mark Neuman
On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mark Neuman on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkNeuman18 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:vhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) The Origins Of ESG (04:32) Measuring ESG Investing (16:47) What Stocks Are Underowned Within The Indices? (24:00) Silicon Valley Bank (26:21) Show Me The Incentive & I'll Show You the Outcome (32:50) ExxonMobil, Tesla & FTX (43:59) Weighting Within ESG Funds (49:06) Did 2022 Mark A Turning Point For ESG Investing? (54:38) HERO: Healing The Environment Regenerating Ourselves -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 24 Aug 2023 11:58:00 -0000
The Next Chapter in Emerging Markets Investing | Marshall Stocker, Co-Head of Emerging Markets, Morgan Stanley
Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, shares his insight why country selection has a greater effect on excess returns than company selection, and shares his view on investment opportunities and challenges in China, Greece, India, South Africa, and other countries. Filmed at Camp Kotok in August 2023. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Country Allocation Is Greater Source of Excess Returns Than Company Selection (03:55) Greatest Country Overweight: Greece (07:32) Underweight South Africa and India (08:33) Can Governments Default On Debt Denominated In Currencies They Can Print? The Answer May Surprise You! (10:54) Could The U.S. Ever Have An "Emerging Market Debt Crisis"? (12:31) Chinese Equities ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 22 Aug 2023 02:23:00 -0000
Government Debt Crisis Has Hit U.S. Banks | Bill Isaac, Former FDIC Chair
Today Jack interviews William Bill Isaac, who served as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985. Isaac recounts his handling of large bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, including the collapse of Continental Illinois, which was the largest FDIC takeover until Washington Mutual in 2008. Isaac argues that at the core of banking issues is fiscal imprudence by the U.S. Congress which has caused inflation and rate volatility.Filmed on August 16, 2023. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ William "Bill" Isaac is Chairman of Secura/Isaac Group, a global advisory firm serving the financial services industry. Bill has an unparalleled career in the financial industry and public service, spanning over 50 years. He served as Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1978 through 1985, working to maintain stability during the banking and thrift crises of the 1980s, when over 3,000 banks and thrifts failed. He also served as Chairman of Fifth Third Bancorp. For more information on Bill's past and current work, visit securaisaac.com ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bill's Early Journey To The FDIC (03:23) Anatomy Of A Bank Failure (12:40) Does Technology Hasten Bank Runs? (21:30) Impact of High Interest Rates On Banking System (31:01) Fiscal Policy Is Out Of Control (40:48) Federal Reserve Should Play A Role In Fiscal Matters, Says Former FDIC Chair (49:07) Is Inflation Itself, And Not Debt, The True Problem? (Modern Monetary Theory) (56:10) Two Reasons Why Banks Fall (On Asset Side): Credit & Duration (01:08:28) Are Banking Issues In The U.S. Systemic? (01:16:42) Debating The Need For Zero Interest Rates After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timecodes:Fri, 18 Aug 2023 15:00:00 -0000
The Banking System's Guardian Angel You've Never Heard Of | Michael Ericson & Dan Siciliano on Federal Home Loan Banks
Few outside the banking world grasp the true importance of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), whose collective loans to U.S. banks outpace the Federal Reserves by more than 10 to 1 as of summer 2023. Today Jack speaks to Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, and Dan Siciliano, chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB, about the FHLBs mission, capitalization, and implicit government guarantee. Ericson and Siciliano argue that the declining advances from FHLBs to U.S. banks since May 2023 may indicate an easing of liquidity pressures in the U.S. banking system. Filmed on August 15, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) About Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System (21:08) FHLB Is Much, Much Less Centralized Than The Federal Reserve (25:47) San Francisco FHLB Advances To Now-Defunct West Coast Banks (34:48) FHLB & Affordable Housing (38:07) What Caused Banks' Scramble For Cash in March 2023? (46:21) FHLB Implict Government Guarantee (57:24) How Have FHLBs Never Lost Any Money On Advances To Banks? (01:06:58) Interest Rate Hedging (01:08:31) Liquidity Issues In U.S. Banking System Have "Calmed Down Quite A Bit" (01:15:16) Capital Stock Of Federal Home Loan Banks (01:24:40) Will Regulators Attempt To Curb FHLB Lending To Non-Mission-Oriented Institutions? (01:28:00) Potential New FHFA Regulation of FHLB ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 15 Aug 2023 15:15:00 -0000
Ivy Zelman: Housing Market Downturn Isn't Over
Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open ____ To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email ted@zelmanassociates.com Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Zelman & Associates 2023 Virtual Housing Summit: Our 16th Annual Housing Summit continues to provide rich market content, lively panel discussions and fresh perspectives on the housing ecosystem that is unique to Zelman & Associates.Our panel discussions have C-Suite executives moderated by our elite team. We break down content, providing you with actionable insights that will help navigate the current market uncertainty and on into 2024. Zelman's ultimate goal (as always) was to provide you with the most accurate, in-depth and differentiated data and information to help you be successful in your endeavors. Registration Cost:$850.00 Special Discount:Email Kim Gray kim@zelmanassociates.comto register and mention this podcast for a 25% discount! Housing Summit Event Page: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/conference_home.html?bank_access=0&event_id=96353 Housing Summit Agenda: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/__agenda_cp.html Why Attend Our Housing Summit: Deemed The Best Housing-Related Conference of Year Attended by over 1,000 Institutional Investors and Industry Executives Thought-Provoking Panels Across The Housing Mosaic Corporate Access for Investors and Unique Networking Opportunities A Whos Who of Housing with all of the major public and private prevailing thought leaders in attendance About Zelman & Associates: Extensive macro, sector and company-specific equity research, exclusive industry surveys, stock recommendations, and insights leveraging our constant flow of real-time data. Our insights help connect the dots between all aspects of the housing mosaic to inform strategies and decisions rooted in confidence. Serving institutional investors, corporations, private equity, fixed income, private investors, RIAs and more. https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Resilience Of The U.S. Housing Market (09:28) Comparing the 2020 Housing Boom to the Early 2000s Housing Boom (13:43) Commercial Real Estate: Multifamily Housing (Apartment Buildings) (20:58) Shelter's Contribution To Overall Consumer Price Inflation (22:35) Housing's Impact On Banking System (25:53) Forecasts For Single-Family Housing (32:20) Supply of Housing (38:53) Outlook on Homebuilding Industry (43:42) Negative Outlook On Home Improvement Industry (48:22) Market For Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (51:06) The Fed Was Supporting The Market With Free Money (52:37) Macro OutlookSun, 13 Aug 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Fitch's U.S Debt Downgrade Was Justified | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok. We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade (07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch's Debt Downgrade (11:41) We Took MMT On A Test Drive & It Crashed Into The Wall (15:06) The Path Ahead For U.S Debt Issuance (19:58) Commercial Real Estate (23:19) Where Are We In The Cycle? (26:25) Oppenheimer Or Barbie? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sat, 12 Aug 2023 13:00:00 -0000
Rate Cuts May Not End Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart
Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation. Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Inflation (05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates (08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy (10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target (16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target? (21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 11 Aug 2023 20:30:00 -0000
Inside Camp Kotok | David Kotok on Disastrous and Debilitating Effect Of Debt Ceiling on Bond Markets
David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to Camp Kotok with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of Camp Kotok and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitchs recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023. David Kotok's analysis on the debt ceiling: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cost-debt-ceiling-crisis About Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:10) The History Of Camp Kotok (11:11) Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S. Treasury Debt (20:56) 2023 Debt Ceiling Drama Imposed Real Cost On Borrowing Rates (28:58) Alternatives To The Global Dollar System (31:29) Anecdote From Municipal Bond Market (35:46) Will Interests Rates Go Even Higher? (38:32) The Federal Reserve's Assistance To The U.S. Banking Sector In 2023Fri, 11 Aug 2023 16:00:00 -0000
Rumors Of The Death of Chinese Economys Have Been Greatly Exaggerated | Leland Miller
Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023. Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess (06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed (09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many ExpectThu, 10 Aug 2023 20:09:28 -0000
The Feds Inflation Fight Isnt Over | Jim Bianco & Samuel Rines (Camp Kotok)
Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leens Lodge for the first week of Camp Kotok. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:22) The Bond Market (12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco (17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt (18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel RinesTue, 01 Aug 2023 18:01:48 -0000
The Sovereign Debt Spiral | James Lavish
James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visithttps://blockfills.com/trading. ____ Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavish Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt (16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral (28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money (42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option (49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System (58:36) Why Just Bitcoin? (01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund (01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are, In Fact, Securities (01:11:44) The Economy & The Federal Reserve (01:15:04) Tether (01:17:15) Optimal Macro Environment For Bitcoin ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 27 Jul 2023 18:55:16 -0000
The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & Andy Constan
Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visithttps://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/crossbordercap ___ Follow Andy Constan on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors:https://dampedspring.com/ More info on Crossborder Capital:http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Michael Howells Substack:https://capitalwars.substack.com/ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity (04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake (11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising? (18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity (31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"? (44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo (53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks (59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade (01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)? (01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell (01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 26 Jul 2023 23:40:12 -0000
Julian Brigden: Markets "On A Knife's Edge" After July Fed Meeting
Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year. Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Feds interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a knifes edge and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates. Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference at the close of the meeting of the Feds Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of Insider Talks on Real Vision Pro. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Something Has To Crack (11:01) Hyperfinancialization Means Employment Will Stay High As Long As Stocks Keep Going Up (22:09) Recession Risk (26:41) What's More Likely, A Fall in Stocks Or A Fall In Bonds? (32:34) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Comparison To Subprime Mortgages In 2007 (36:17) Is The Bond Market Still The "Smart Money"? (40:30) Is Liquidity Rising Or Falling? (43:26) Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions... Right? (Maybe No Longer!) (45:40) U.S. Housing Market (49:32) Julian's Bear Case For The U.S. Dollar (01:06:47) German Economy Is Very Sluggish (01:08:34) China (01:14:41) Will Japanese Interest Rates Be At Zero Forever? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 24 Jul 2023 19:32:44 -0000
Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply
Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on todays very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasurys renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SECs new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market (05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data (14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed (23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds? (31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields (34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? (42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time? (46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade (49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sat, 22 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000
It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- In this episode I join the On The Margin podcast with Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week. With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 21 Jul 2023 17:50:00 -0000
Bullishness Approaching Mania | Peter Atwater on Market Psychology And The Confidence Map
Peter Atwater, Adjunct Professor of Economics at William and Mary, and author of The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity joins Forward Guidance to diagnose the sentiment thats driving the current (unofficial) bull market in risk. Follow Peter Atwater on Twitter https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Peter Atwaters book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity: https://peteratwater.com/the-confidence-map-2/ The Confidence Map on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559#:~:text=The%20Confidence%20Map%20is%20a,that%20too%20often%20feels%20senseless. ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Blue Sky Optimism Has Gripped The Stock Market (06:13) The Bubble Can ALWAYS Get Bigger (15:56) Sentiment On Recession Has Changed Massively (21:28) The Confidence Map (33:00) Passive Investing (39:09) Finding Extreme Sentiments In Markets (43:04) U.S. Banking System (45:46) The K-Shaped Recovery, 3 Years Later (57:04) Psychology Of The Federal Reserve (01:01:14) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 18 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000
OPEC To The Rescue | Rory Johnstons Cautious Bull Case For >$80 Oil
Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now cautiously bullish on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabias significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023. ____ Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Johnstons latest Substacks on Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) An "Exhausting" Oil Market (02:59) The Cautious Bull Case For Oil (11:28) OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices (24:20) Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop? (31:36) Guyana (34:22) Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies (49:13) The Russian Supply Question (54:55) Price Cap (59:02) Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil (01:03:10) The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls (01:09:02) Futures Curve (01:15:07) Recession Risk ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sun, 16 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000
The Recession Paradox | Alfonso Peccatiello
Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:06:34) When Recession? Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 13 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000
The Laws Of Quantitative Investing | Michael Robbins
On todays episode Michael Robbins, CIO of Larson Financial & Professor Of Quantitative Investing at Columbia University joins the show for a discussion on the quantitative investing strategy. Authoring the book "Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing" Michael takes us back to the very basics in answering what is quantitive investing, what actually causes markets to go up, why most investors are NOT stock pickers and how a quantitive strategy can help manage risk & create sizeable returns. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29076 Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing: http://quantitativeassetmanagement.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is Quantitative Investing? (02:24) Selling Fast & Buying Slow (05:26) What Causes Stocks To Go Up? (09:02) Are Rising Rates Actually Bad For Stocks? (15:11) Stock vs Bond Arbitrage Strategies (17:37) The VXX ETF (24:11) Most People Are NOT Stock Pickers (29:54) Risk Management (35:14) What Are The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make? (44:31) Being Early Is The Same As Being Wrong (49:37) What Indicators Are Worth Following With A Quantitative Strategy? (56:41) Liquidity (01:00:07) The Five Factors Of Investing (01:05:55) Investing Using Artificial Intelligence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 11 Jul 2023 18:36:00 -0000
The Basel III Endgame: Bank Regulation In A Post-SVB World | Steven Kelly
Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the Federal Reserves forthcoming plans to increase capital requirements for U.S. banks. Filmed on July 11, 2023. ____ Follow Steven Kelly on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Kellys latest Without Warning Substack:https://www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-story-of-svb-isnt-just ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:45) Bank Capital Ratios, Explained (18:52) Busting Myths About Banks' Interest Rate Hedging (38:15) Accounting For Unrealized Losses (46:56) How Much Money Is Leaving the Banking System? (54:16) U.S. Banking System Is "Stable But More Fragile" (01:02:47) The Basel III Endgame (01:05:54) Interest Rates And Financial Stability ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 10 Jul 2023 22:25:00 -0000
Vtor Constncio, Former Vice President of European Central Bank (ECB) on Inflation, Interest Rates, and The Global Banking System
Vtor Constncio witnessed firsthand severe recessions, inflationary bouts, and a global financial crisis, as former Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) (2010 to 2018) and Governor of The Bank of Portugal (1985-1986, 2000-2010). He brings this considerable experience to examine the current challenges facing central bankers at the ECB as well as the Fed. Constncio argues that while U.S. inflation is driven by a strong demand generated by loose fiscal policy, the primary agent of European inflation was the surge in energy prices in 2022. However, he recognizes that what began as supply-side pressure has broadened out to other sectors of the Euro area economy, so the ECBs hiking of interest rates to 4% was necessary. Constancio expects that a mild recession in Europe will tame inflation and that substantial further rate hikes from the ECB will likely not be needed. Filmed on July 6, 2023. ____ Follow Vtor Constncio on Twitter https://twitter.com/VMRConstancio Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Euro Area Inflation Is Mostly Due To Energy Shock, Not Demand (08:13) I Would Support A Pause In Interest Rate Hikes, Says Constancio (10:11) Recession In Europe Is Likely For 2023 (14:35) ECB Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates During A Mild Recession (16:20) There Pressure on The European Central Bank (ECB) To Follow The Federal Reserve? (20:44) Exploring The Logic Of Negative Interest Rates (25:29) Interest Rates' Impact On The Economy (32:04) Fixed vs. Floating Mortgages (34:48) ECB's Reaction Function During The 2008 Great Financial Crisis (44:16) Recent Bank Failures (Silicon Valley Bank) (49:51) Credit Suisse (51:51) Basel III Regulation of Held-To-Matuity Accounts and Interest Rate Hedging (54:47) Fighting Inflation In 1970s Portugal ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sun, 09 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Railroad Recession & Airline Boom | Jay Shabat on Planes & Trains
On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023. After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/ Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) The State Of Airlines In 2023 (03:09) How The Pandemic Impacted The Airline Industry (10:32) We're Not Seeing An Economic Slowdown Yet (20:40) International Travel (25:06) Why Airlines Aren't A Great Business (29:15) The Airline Industry Would Have Gone Bankrupt If Not For Government Assistance (36:20) The State Of Freight In 2023 (51:44) Consolidation In The Freight Industry (57:40) What Can Freight Tell Us About The U.S Economy? (01:10:02) How Do Airlines Hedge? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 06 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000
The Price of Time | Edward Chancellor & Joseph Wang
Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.The Price of Time:https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069 ____ Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=en Follow Joseph Wang on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wangs YouTube channel:https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featured Joseph Wangs writings can be found athttps://fedguy.com/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles (11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard (18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad (30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital (37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity (45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos (46:44) Unicorns and Zombies (54:20) Elite Overproduction (57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 03 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000
The Little-Known Entity Thats Lent Over $1 Trillion To U.S. Banks (10x The Fed!) | Professor Kathryn Judge on The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System
Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserves recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June. What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the lender of second-to-last resort. Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SECs move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFRs replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023. ____ Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudge Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Kathryn Judges book, Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven" (03:06) What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System? (07:24) Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s (11:22) Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And GlassSteagall) (17:31) FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (25:14) "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances" (33:54) FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop (34:28) Permissionless (41:24) What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like? (50:38) Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations (53:42) Blockworks Research (54:42) Held-To-Maturity Accounting (58:37) The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business (01:06:00) SEC's War With Crypto (01:08:04) The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sun, 02 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000
What The Oil Bulls Got Wrong | Michael Kao & Alexander Stahel on the Chinese Yuan & Oil "Doom Loop"
-- On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets. Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023. Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023 (13:47) Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply? (23:43)Forecasting Oil Prices (31:05) European Gas Prices (33:37) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:41) Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis (41:34) Chinese Oil Demand (01:01:33) Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market (01:17:23) Oil Has Further Downside Risk (01:24:13) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sat, 01 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? | Weekly Round Up
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing? Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 30 Jun 2023 14:30:00 -0000
Fed Will Hike Rates Into Economic Train Wreck | Danielle DiMartino Booth
To get $1,000 off an annual subscription to QI Pro, Danielle DiMartino Booths institutional-grade research service, go to https://quillintelligence.com/register/qi-pro-friends-of-farley/. $3,000 instead of $4,000 for the first year, offer ends in July. Interested parties may request a sample report of QI Pro by emailing Danielle DiMartino Booth at danielle@dimartinobooth.com. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance on a mission to dispute the notion that the U.S. economy is strong. Booth challenges the apparently-rosy economic data and points to where the data is either very lagging or, as she says about the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, painfully corrupted. Booth explains why she expects inflation to continue to fall very sharply, and why she expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at least one more time in July (and perhaps again in September). Filmed on June 20, 2023. -- Follow Danielle: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Laying Inflation To Rest (07:43) Shortages Have Become Gluts (09:32) Housing Is Strong, Right? (14:04) Hidden Cracks In The Labor Market (16:49) Official Bureau of Labor Data Is "Painfully Corrupted" (24:23) Global Economic Impulse Is Disinflationary (28:56) Liquidity Is NOT Increasing, Says Danielle (35:04) QI Pro Discount (39:06) Fed Will Likely Hike Rates In July (And Maybe September), Says Danielle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 26 Jun 2023 21:09:00 -0000
The Fate Of Global Dollar Credit | Robert McCauley & Joseph Wang on Eurodollars, FX Swaps, and SOFR
Todays special guest is a true expert in global money. Robert McCauleys life work on the international monetary system is authoritative and seminal, and he joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang to answer questions such as: - how do Eurodollars actually work? - is the rest of the world long or short dollars? (the answer may surprise you) - how does the level of the dollar mechanically impact offshore dollar credit? McCauley confirms many rumors about Eurodollars (offshore dollars), as well as debunks several of their myths. He shares his view on the dollars role in the future of global money, and he details the astronomically large sums in the FX swap market used to hedge dollar exposure. McCauley also asks Joseph Wang a question about the fall of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) and the rise of SOFR (secured overnight financing rate). Filmed on June 21, 2023. Robert McCauley is the Senior Fellow at the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. He previously served as senior advisor to the monetary & economics department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as well as at the New York Fed. -- Robert McCauleys Eighth Edition of Manias, Panics, and Crashes: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/03/22/manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/ On Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/303116007X Robert McCauleys papers referenced during the show: The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/02/09/the-global-domain-of-the-dollar-eight-questions/ Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf Seven decades of international banking: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2109e.pdf The International Economic and Financial Order After the Pandemic and War, pages 123-128: https://media.iese.edu/research/pdfs/76606.pdf London as a financial centre since Brexit: evidence from the 2022 BIS Triennial Survey: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull65.pdf Joseph Wangs latest piece on SOFR (paywalled): https://fedguy.com/long-live-sofr/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wangs YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) Origin Of The Eurodollar System (19:46) Eurodollar Deposits Rarely Take Losses, But Silicon Valley Bank's Eurodollars Are In Limbo And May Be Lost (26:12) Can Non-U.S. Banks Print Dollar Deposits At Will? (39:50) Banking As A Percentage of GDP Peaked Many Years Ago (43:14) Is The Rest Of The World Long Dollars, Or Short Dollars? (53:49) Is The De-Dollarization Narrative Just A Lot Of Hot Air? (01:11:49) Who's Going To Buy U.S. Treasurys? (01:20:38) The Dollar's Role Does Not Give The U.S. An "Exorbitant Privilege" (01:24:29) $35 Trillion Dollar Hidden Debt Via FX Swaps (01:38:05) Robert McCauley's Question For Joseph Wang On SOFR & LIBOR -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sun, 25 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000
The Shiny New Derivative Thats Taken Over Wall Street | Kris Sidial on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options & Tail Risk During A Volatility Bear Market
With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what its like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol). Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023. -- Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Ambrus paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling+False+Narratives+About+0DTE+Options.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:16) Market Volatility Is At A Three-Year Low (07:34) Implied Volatility Could Go Even Lower (15:14) Tail Risk Strategies (36:01) The Stunning Rise Of Zero Days To Expiration (0DTE) Options (41:29) Huge Amounts Of Unregulated Leverage In 0DTE Options (52:31) Market Crash Is "Inevitable" Because Of Zero Day To Expiration Options (01:04:14) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (01:07:52) Performance Reporting of Tail Fund Risk Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sat, 24 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Return Of The Bull Market? | On The Margin Round Up
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 22 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Michael Howell: "QE Is Coming Back, Big Time"
Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity. -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market (07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here? (27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn (32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples (40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan (47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds (54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds (56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates? (01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us (01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System (01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual" (01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections (01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up) (01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 19 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000
SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi
Louis Camhi, founder and chief investment officer of RLH Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to provide a strategic update on the world of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies). ___ Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:58) "A Lot Of The Optionality of SPACs Is Dead" (17:25) State of SPAC Dealflow In Summer 2023 (32:08) Warrant Arbitrage (59:43) SPAC LIquidiation Wave in December 2022 Because of Stock Buyback Tax Threat In Inflation Reduction Act (01:06:49) "SPACs Are A Bull Market Product" (01:20:02) How SPAC Yields Have Changed With RIsing Interest Rates (01:29:17) Macroeconomic Implications (01:32:07) View on Banks (01:38:26) Cannabis ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 15 Jun 2023 04:15:00 -0000
Jay Powells Plan To Kill The Fed Put | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserves decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 14 Jun 2023 22:07:00 -0000
Did The Fed Just Back Down? | Joseph Wang & Michael Ippolito
On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 12 Jun 2023 20:57:00 -0000
Higher For Longer | Robert Kaplan, Former Dallas Fed President & CEO
Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplans website:https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing (01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) (05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes (06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress? (15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves (16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present (24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt? (25:10) Future Economic Outlook (29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil (39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle (41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve (50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now (53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)? (55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy (59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital (01:02:41) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 12 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000
The Holy Grail of Macro Investing | Eric Crittenden
On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing. Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Finding Opportunities Using A Macro Trend Strategy (04:21) Why Eric Has Been Long Japan, U.S & Europe In 2023 (08:54) Generating Returns Using A Quantitative Strategy (15:27) How Market Structure Has Changed Since The 1980's (18:06) Shorting Oil In 2023 (20:45) Permissionless (21:22) Market Hedging (27:53) Market Liquidity (29:49) Launching Standpoint In 2020 (33:18) Artificial Intelligence (39:49) Blockworks Research (40:49) Harvesting Risk Premium (49:51) Eric's Principles For Successful Trading (55:19) What Will AI's Role Be In Financial Markets? (59:39) The Psychology Of Macro Trend (01:03:39) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 09 Jun 2023 20:23:00 -0000
The Music Is About To Stop: John Toohig & Randy Woodward on Bank Lending, Deflation, and Secondary Loan Liquidity
Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return. Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023. ____ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Toohigs latest edition of Lets Talk Loans on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3D Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market (27:25) Permissionless (28:03) Commercial Real Estate (35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs (41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending" (51:49) Blockworks Research (52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020 (57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses (01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks (01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates? (01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit (01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 07 Jun 2023 19:45:00 -0000
Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker
Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute hottest hand when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year. Quoting George Soros saying that, when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it, Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023. Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:51Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Already A Bubble? 28:21 The Lipstick Effect 32:50 How Can These Rich Valuations Be Justified? 41:57 Permissionless 42:34 The Losers of The Rise of Artificial Intelligence 50:43 Blockworks ResearchTue, 06 Jun 2023 22:34:22 -0000
Coinbase Sued By SEC | Casey Wagner
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down. Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks: Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities ____ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 06 Jun 2023 17:39:00 -0000
The Fed Put Still Lives | Vincent Daniel
Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing. Immortalized in The Big Short, Vincents interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s ____ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.4% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance ____ Follow Vincent Daniel on Twitter https://twitter.com/VD718 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The Current Setup (06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally? (09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks (13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution (21:17) Public.com (22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds (26:24) Outlook on Stocks (29:47) Importance of Stop-Losses (31:12) How Much Research Before Taking A Position? (32:33) Concentration Risk/Reward: How Many Positions? (34:10) Why Vincent (and Porter) Shorted Banks Before Silicon Valley Bank Collapse (39:31) Banks' Moats Are Less Valuable Now, Says Vincent (42:58) Bank Run Risk Is Higher Now Than During Great Financial Crisis (44:52) Core Tier 1 Is Nonsense (54:01) Private Equity (01:02:30) Can High Debt Levels Hanlde High Interest Rates? (01:06:09) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (01:07:57) Vincent's Views On Bank Stocks Going Forward (01:12:46) Energy Stocks (01:17:00) "The Fed Put Never Died (01:19:19) Views On Recession Risk: "It's Hard For Me To See A Reflationary Boom" (01:21:52) Uranium ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 06 Jun 2023 00:38:00 -0000
Joseph Wang & Alex Etra: Trillion-Dollar Liquidity Drain Imminent
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Alex Etra Senior Macro Strategist at Exante Data & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show for a discussion on the path ahead for H2 2023. Reflecting on the record bond losses in 2022, Alex shares his outlook on what to expect in the second half of 2023 as bond fund managers experience inflows and tech related equities continue surging higher despite the bearish sentiment in the broader market. We then move on to some of the monetary plumbing implications amidst the debt ceiling resolution and what impact it could have on markets as the U.S Treasury looks to re fill is dwindling Treasury General Account. To hear all this & more. you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show: Back to 2019: https://fedguy.com/back-to-2019/ Money: Inside and Out: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Preparing For June FOMC (05:23) Will The Fed Hike, Skip Or Cut? (07:25) Back To 2019 (10:35) Permissionless (11:13) The Mechanics of The Treasury Cash-Futures Basis Trade (19:07) The Path Ahead In H2 2023 (25:47) Reflecting On The Bond Markets Performance In 2022 (34:21) Will A New Investor Class Replace Japanese Investors? (38:31) Equity Flows (43:46) Blockworks Research (44:46) Why Are Equity Markets Performing So Well In 2023? (51:51) The Mechanics of The U.S. Treasury, General Account (01:01:04) Quantitative Tightening: Is The Reverse Repo Heading Higher? (01:05:32) How Alex Tracks Market Flows -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 01 Jun 2023 12:42:00 -0000
Rate Hikes Are Inflationary, Says Warren Mosler, Godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Warren Mosler, founder of Valance Co., Inc. and author of The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy, is widely viewed as the intellectual godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a framework for understanding money and debt which underscores a governments ability to print money to pay for goods and services without relying necessarily on borrowing or taxation. Mosler joins Forward Guidance to apply these ideas to todays financial issues. He argues why a failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling would be truly catastrophic, and he makes the case that the Feds rate hikes are actually contributing to inflation, rather than fighting it, because the government is printing more money in order to pay its debt. Filmed on May 30, 2023. ____ Follow Warren Mosler on Twitter https://twitter.com/wbmosler Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Warrens website: https://moslereconomics.com/ Warrens book and other writings: https://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ (00:00) Risk Of Government Unwind Would Be Catastrophic (07:24) "Money Is Just A Series Of Dots Going On And Off In People's Bank Accounts" (14:52) The Federal Reserve Prints Money (19:07) The Government Spends First, Taxes and Borrows Second (31:23) Permissionless (32:01) Quantitative Easing Does Not Have An Actual Effect On The Economy (33:17) High Interest Rates Mean More Deficit Spending (48:29) Challenging The Narrative of Volcker As The Slayer Of Inflation Dragon (54:00) Challenging The Wage Price Spiral (01:01:13) Currency Itself Is A "Public Monopoly" (01:04:04) We Are NOT In A Recession, Says Mosler (01:11:21)Is The Solution To Inflation To Cut Government Spending? (01:16:30) Blockworks Research (01:17:28) The Debt Ceiling (01:24:08) The DollarSun, 28 May 2023 00:50:00 -0000
The Debt Ceiling Approaches | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Macro Hive return to Forward Guidance to update listeners on the U.S. debt ceiling, which may be breached as early as June. Filmed on May 25, 2023. To access a 40% discount to an annual subscription of Macro Hive Prime, go to www.macrohive.com/jack. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Twitter https://twitter.com/firstkicktires Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_f Josephs latest piece on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/probing-lclor/ Joseph Wang YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) The Debt Ceiling (10:09) What Happens When The Treasury Runs Out Of Money? (18:20) Will The Fed Come To Rescue? (Yes, Say Dominique & Joseph) (27:19) What Counts As A "Default"? (32:21) MacroHive (32:57) How Might The Market React? (36:05) Are These "Magical Measures" Just A Temporary Fix? (37:50) Payment Prioritization (41:45) U.S. Treasury's Non-Marketable Debt Will Play A Key Role (50:02) Potential For "Huge Liquidity Drain" As Treasury Plans On Issuing $1 Trillion In Bills Over The Next Six Months (01:01:10) Dominique and Joseph's Views On The Economy (01:08:20) Joseph's Updated Views On BanksFri, 26 May 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Long Stocks, Long Dollar, Short Gold | Jason Shapiro
Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of The Crowded Market Report, joins Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to share his contrarian trading style and to explain why he remains long stocks even after this years huge equity rally. Shapiro shares wisdom from his long career of trading, as well as why he is long the dollar and short gold. Filmed on May 25, 2023. ____ Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Jason's Early Years In Hong Kong (01:47) "Too Much Leverage Is A Bad Thing" (04:52) Importance of Journaling Your Trades (07:37) The Essence Of Successful Contrarianism (09:54) Why Jason Has Been Bullish On Stocks All Year (14:42) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report (17:54) Why Jason Is Short Gold (22:28) Permissionless (23:03) Futures Positioning vs. Positioning Of The Whole Market (28:22) Why Are Speculators Wrong At Extremes? (34:20) Why CTAs Performed So Poorly This Year (Commodity Trading Advisor) (40:22) Blockworks Research (41:22) You Need Confirmation From The Market (46:38) Long Stocks, Short Gold Remains High Conviction Trade (48:57) Stop Losses (50:36) Bank Stocks (51:55) Why Jason Is Short The Euro (53:12) Risk of Recession and Debt Ceiling (01:09:26) Why Vast Majority Of Investors Don't Beat The Index ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 22 May 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Bull Market In Oil Is Over (For Now) | Paul Sankey
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Oil market veteran Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical vs secular trends in the oil market that investors should be paying attention to. Highlighting how the current market is extremely difficult to trade directionally, as oil remains rangebound after it's 2022 highs of over $100 a barrel, Paul outlines both the supply & demand picture in 2023. Paul goes on to explain the four structural drivers of oil prices, energy companies profitability with oil sitting around the $70 mark & what investors can expect throughout the rest of 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Paul on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Paul's Oil Market Outlook (10:25) Oil Companies Profitability (11:37) Why Is Oil Demand Lower Than Expected In 2023? (17:40) Why Is This Oil Market So Tough To Trade? (19:42) The Four Structural Drivers Of Oil Prices (22:52) Permissionless (23:55) Are Oil Equties Cheap? (35:28) The Political Cycle Is Shorter Than The Energy Cycle (39:18) How Does Oil Perform During A Recession? (44:44) The Economics Of ESG (47:03) Blockworks Research (48:02) Warren Buffett Continues Buying $OXY (54:09) The Correlation Between Bank Stocks & Oil (57:26) Sankey Research (01:02:23) Small & Mid Size Oil Companies In Canada -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 19 May 2023 14:40:00 -0000
The Return Of Bank Runs | Sheila Bair, Former FDIC Chair
During her tenure as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011, Sheila Bair managed over 300 bank failures, including the collapse of Washington Mutual in September 2008, the largest bank failure in American history. Bair joins Forward Guidance to apply her vast experience to share insight on recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic. Filmed the afternoon of May 18, 2023. ____ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. ____ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Sheila Bair on Twitter https://twitter.com/SheilaBair2013 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Right Now, The Main Issue Is Interest Rate Risk (12:56) What Causes A Bank Run? (17:55)Are Bank Runs Faster In An Age of Mobile Banking? (21:55) Van Eck Ad (22:45) Money Market Funds and The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Is Where A Lot Of Bank Money Is Going (25:33) Risk Of Further Big Bank Consolidation (29:51) Best Time To Shut Down A Bank Is Friday Night (31:10) Federal Reserve Lending To Insolvent Institutions Increases The FDIC's Cost To Resolve Failed Banks (32:53) How To Know When To Shut Down A Failing Bank (34:51) "I Was Surprised At The Biden Administration's Level Of Involvement" (37:12) The Systemic Risk Determination, Explained (42:56) 2018 Loosening Of Regulation of Regional Banks (47:35) Forcing Banks To Raise More Equity (i.e. sell stock) (49:31) The Federal Reserve's Role As Bank Regulator ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 18 May 2023 14:15:00 -0000
Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China
Nicholas Glinsman, macro investor and co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on banks, commercial real estate, and China. Glinsman says that he and his partner Harald Malmgren expect a ban on new foreign investment into China will be imminently passed via executive order of U.S. President Biden. ____ Malmgren Glinsman Partners is a research partner of Forward Guidance. To get discounted access to the Malmgren Glinsman Daily note (Ahead Of The Heard), go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Forward%2520Guidance?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgern-glinsman-partners-daily-ahead-of-the-herd And use code Forward Guidance at checkout to get a discounted rate of $900/year. Ahead of The Heard typically is released at a daily cadence so subscribers can expect 5-6 issues per week. To obtain access to Malmgren Glinsmans institutional product, a long-form research note aiming to flag for large institutional investors important market-driving issues before they hit the news, go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Blockworks?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgren-institutional-research And use code Blockworks for discounted rate of $40,000 / year. Clients can be expect publication of research 1-4 times per month. ____ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The De-Dollarization Narrative (04:28) Maybe The Fed Is Not Done Hiking? (05:48) Banking System (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (32:30) Views on Bond Yields and Volatility (42:10) China and Reverse CFIUS (01:18:07) Imminent Ban On Foreign Investment Into China Is Coming, Says Glinsman ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 15 May 2023 16:54:18 -0000
The Fed's Playbook for Fighting Bank Panics, Now vs. The Great Depression | Dr. Jane Knodell
Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and Author joins the show for a historical comparison between the previous bank runs & the banking turmoil of 2023. Knodell reflects on the development of the U.S banking system throughout history, the measures taken today to curb deposit flight and how the Federal Reserve ultimately became the lender of last resort. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Referenced In The Show: Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve: A Historical Perspective on Wartime Amendments to the Federal Reserve Act: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368342410_Making_a_Central_Bank_Out_of_the_Federal_Reserve_A_Historical_Perspective_on_Wartime_Amendments_to_the_Federal_Reserve_Act Fighting Financial Crises Learning from the Past Gary B. Gorton and Ellis W. Tallman: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo26527334.html Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Historial Comparisons To 2023's Banking Turmoil (02:37) The Difference Between Solvency & Liquidty In A Bank Run (07:17) Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve (11:42) The Role of Gold In The Federal Reserve's History (17:00) Why Did Gold Flee To The Fed In 1917? (22:57) Permissionless ad (24:00) The Federal Reserve: The Lender Of Last Resot (29:51) How Has The Banking System Developed Throughout U.S History? (35:21) The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (38:11) The Bank Term Funding Program (41:14) All Roads Lead Back To Congress (46:50) Learning From The Lesson's Of The Great Depression (55:37) The Looming Debt Ceiling (58:19) Blockworks Research (59:20) The Trillion Dollar Coin Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 12 May 2023 17:45:00 -0000
Why Bank Money Is Disappearing | Patrick Perret-Green
Last year, Patrick Perret-Green, veteran bond trader and macro strategist, warned his clients that plummeting liquidity at regional U.S. banks could cause serious issues. Now that these issues have made themselves apparent with the fall of three U.S. banks, Perret-Green of PPG Macro joins Forward Guidance to share his views on bank liquidity, loan growth, and credit risks within banks as well as shadow banks. Filmed on May 11, 2023. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/PPGMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:28) Patrick's 2022 Warnings About Banks (10:33) Credit Risks (15:49) Shadow Banking System (19:35) Permissionless (20:38) Loan Growth (29:17) Global Liquidity Is Collapsing (34:32) Foreign Banks Are Having Issues (37:20) The Pain Trade Is For The Dollar To Go Higher (40:11) Rate Hikes "An Economic War Crime"? (43:34) Commercial Real Estate (49:42) Bank Run Risks (56:14) Blockworks Research (57:16) Where Are Interests Rates Headed? (01:00:54) China (01:08:50) Closing ThoughtsThu, 11 May 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Why The U.S. Dollar Could Fall Even In A Recession | Jens Nordvig
Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors. ____ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData Follow MarketReader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:27) Tracking Capital Flows (01:43) Where Is The Money Going? (19:53) The Dollar And The Euro (25:30) Blockworks Research (26:29) Is The "De-Dollarization Narrative" Backed Up By The Data? (38:04) Is China Actually Dumping U.S. Treasurys? (41:14) Central Banks' Swap-Adjusted FX Reserves Do Not Show Significant De-Dollarization (46:18) Bearish Near-Term Case For The Dollar (57:14) Permissionless (58:15) About MarketReader's Emerging Artificial Intelligence Capabilities (01:11:52) Closing thoughts On The Dollar & Stock Market Correlation ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 08 May 2023 11:06:00 -0000
Michael Pettis: China's Economic Growth Model Is Dying
Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:40) China's Economic Growth Model (18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China (26:01) Van Eck ad (26:51) Domestic Consumption In China (35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works (39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble (43:20) Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China (49:01) Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue (01:00:46) The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy (01:02:45) Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity? (01:04:55) Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S. (01:08:28) Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic EnoughThu, 04 May 2023 22:55:00 -0000
The Feds "Controlled Demolition" of The Financial System | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her thoughts on May 3rds Federal Reserves meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the ongoing issues at several regional U.S. banks. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. (00:00) Intro (11:02) When Will The Fed Pivot (Cut Rates)? (15:40) Powell Wants To Get Rid Of The Fed Put (25:20) Calling Inflation "Transitory" Was "A Path To Hell" (29:11) "Powell Will Stand His Ground" (34:30) Permissionless (35:34) The Balance Sheet (40:17) Powell Won't Save The Banks (47:41) Blockworks Research (48:41) The Debt Ceiling (54:08) "This Is Going To Be A Really Ugly Recession" (58:03) Door To A June Hike Is Ajar (59:11) The Bernanke Doctrine (01:01:26) Danielle's Views On Private Credit Are EvolvingThu, 04 May 2023 16:55:00 -0000
Nick Timiraos: The Fed Doesn't Want Bank Failures In The News
Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage joins Jack Farley to share his analysis of yesterdays meeting of the Federal Reserves Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed at 10am ET on May 4, 2023. --- Timiraos' article on May 3 Fed meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-rates-signals-potential-pause-eb264784 Timiraos article on 2006 hiking cycle: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-fed-debate-17-years-ago-reveals-about-its-rate-deliberations-now-4835936 Timiraos book, Trillion Dollar Triage: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817 --- Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ --- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 03 May 2023 21:58:00 -0000
Fed Downplays Bank Crisis As Another Bank Teeters | Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Forward Guidance to break down the Federal Reserves meeting on May 3rd, during which Fed Chair Powell noted that conditions in the banking sector have improved. Shortly thereafter, shares of PacWest Bank ($PACW) plummeted. Bianco and Farley also explore whether this is the Feds last hike in interest rates, and how the consequences of the looming debt ceiling will impact the banking system and markets. Note: this interview started to filmed at 3:30pm ET on May 3rd, almost immediately after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference, but BEFORE the crash in $PACW (over 50%), which occurred shortly after 4:30pm ET. Bianco and Farleys discussion of PacWest occurred before PacWest announced it was pursuing a strategic sale. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 02 May 2023 19:50:00 -0000
A Wild Ride In The Oil Market | Josh Young
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Josh Young Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Bison Interests joins the show for a deep dive into the oil and gas industry. After a record year in 2022 for oil & gas, with energy being the best performing sector, 2023 has sent investors on "a wild ride" with crude oil retracing gains from its high of around $120 to around $75. Josh walks through the relative performances of the oil majors, and the small/mid size cap companies he specializes in. As many oil & gas companies have restructured their balance sheets and paid down overhanging debt, is the stage set for an outperformance of the oil & gas companies that incurred tougher times throughout the previous decade. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! Follow Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Referenced In The Show: The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy: https://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy-ebook/dp/B009TCWKLC Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) A wild Ride In The Oil Market (05:34) Oil Companies Profitability vs A Decade Ago (15:22) Are O&G Companies Investing In R&D, Or Share Buybacks? (18:57) Natural Gas (23:58) Are Rising Production Costs Impacting O&G Companies? (28:50) Permissionless (29:53) Searching For Low Decline Producers In The Oil Market (33:28) Baytex Energy (BTE) (40:45) Josh's Oil Price Outlook (56:19) Blockworks Research (57:19) Investing In O&G Companies In The U.S & Canada vs Rest of World (01:08:03) Overrated O&G Companies In The Small & Mid Cap Industry Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 01 May 2023 22:53:00 -0000
The Failure of First Republic Bank | Chris Whalen & Randy Woodward
Today First Republic, Americas 14th largest bank, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) who sold the vast majority of the stranded assets to banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM). Jack welcomes two veteran bankers, Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, for an in-depth look at why First Republic and how the banking system can move on from todays takeover. ____ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:48) The "False Narrative" About First Republic (04:44) "The Bondholders Will Get Toasted First" (07:06) "We Just Need More Time" (09:54) "The Fed's Got To Cut" (11:52) Credit Availablity Has Already Come Down (15:03) Why Did The Fed Buy Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)? (19:35) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (23:30) Mortgage REITs & Interest Rate Risk (37:36) "The Loss To The FDIC Will Grow (40:55) Permissionless (41:58) Is The Fed Really To Blame For Bank Failures? (Jack Pushes Back) (52:58) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (55:38) Blockworks Research (56:37) Moral Hazard Argument About Deposit Insurance (01:05:51) Tease At Future Interviews On Forward Guidance ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 01 May 2023 19:45:00 -0000
Dr. Perry Mehrling on The Dollar Standard, Globalization of Shadow Banking, and Charles Kindleberger
Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System, Dr. Mehrling shares insights on the extension of the dollar to the global south and globalization of shadow banking. Mehrling and Farley explore whether rumors of the dollars death are greatly exaggerated, and how the end of a zero-interest-rate-fueled credit cycle could be a little rocky. __ Money and Empire: https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/macroeconomics-and-monetary-economics/money-and-empire-charles-p-kindleberger-and-dollar-system?format=HB Money and Empire on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Empire-Kindleberger-Economic-Thinking/dp/1009158570 __ Follow Perry Mehrling on Twitter https://twitter.com/PMehrling Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ The New Lombard Street: https://www.amazon.com/New-Lombard-Street-Became-Dealer/dp/0691143986/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=i42Qi&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=144-5485129-5375822&pd_rd_wg=KL4l1&pd_rd_r=5ee218b8-1e89-4991-8a8d-ac9e7c073e06&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Perry Mehrling, Zoltan Pozsar, Daniel Neilson, and James Sweeney, Bagehot was a Shadow Banker: Shadow Banking, Central Banking, and the Future of Global Finance https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2232016 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:02) What Is The Global Dollar System? (02:32) The Dollar Is International, Not Domestic (06:43) The Inherent Instability Of Thought (08:49) "The Fed Learned Its Lesson From 2008" (11:45) Key Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (20:36) The Fall Of The Sterling Standard After World War 1 (24:02) Sterling Was The Standard, Not Gold (26:25) "The Crime Of 1971" Was Nixon's DePegging The Dollar From Gold, According to Kindleberger (27:44) Why Was There Inflation In The 1970s (Instead of Deflation)? (30:50) Next Few Years Will Be "A Little Rocky" (36:03) The Globalization Of Shadow Banking (39:06) Blockworks Research (40:05) Money Market Funds (MMFs), Comparison Between Now And Great Financial Crisis (43:44) "The Dollar System Seems To Be Holding Together" (46:45) The Four Prices Of Money (56:02) Permissionless (57:04) Kindleberger's Critique Of The Triffin Dilemma (01:06:48) The Myth Of Bretton Woods (01:12:32) What's Missing In Contemporary Understanding Of Kindleberger's School Of Thought __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 27 Apr 2023 22:50:00 -0000
Jared Dillian: Sentiment Is Still Really, Really Bad
Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why hes no longer bearish on natural gas, why he thinks the May Fed meeting could be a catalyst for gold, and why hedge fund managers who are still short officer REITs (real estate investment trusts) will get their faces hes no longer bearish on natural gas. He discusses several essays from his latest book, Those Bastards: 69 Essays On Life, Creativity, & Meaning. Filmed on April 17, 2023. ____ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:01) Shorting Commercial Real Estate Is A Crowded Trade (08:36) Outlook On Stocks (12:24) Healthcare Sector (14:53) Permissionless (15:56) "Gold Is Super Interesting" (19:26) Gold Mining Stocks (22:29) May Fed Meeting Could Be "Next Big Catalyst" For Gold (24:54) Is It Time To Get Bullish On Bonds? (27:25) "The Labor Market Will Weaken A Bit" (28:38) Jared's New Book (30:03) What Is Luck? (36:55) Blockworks Research (37:55) Is Finance Depraved?Tue, 25 Apr 2023 20:06:00 -0000
Nathan Tankus on The "Pozsar Moment" In Shadow Banking
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Nathan Tankus Author at Notes on the Crises joins the show for a deep dive into the shadow banking system, recent financial crises and the current state of the banking system post SVB's collapse. Questioning conventional monetary theory, Nathan outlines his thesis authored in a recent paper released in January 2022 "The New Monetary Theory". Nathan also shares his thoughts on the current FDIC limit of $250,000 and how an increase in this limit could help prevent future bank panics. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Subscribe To Notes on the Crises: https://www.crisesnotes.com/ Follow Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NathanTankus Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: THE NIGHT THEY REREAD POZSAR (IN HIS ABSENCE): https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-night-they-reread-pozsar-in-his-absence/ The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Best-Way-Rob-Bank-Own/dp/0292754183 THE NEW MONETARY POLICY: https://files.modernmoney.network/M3F000001.pdf?ref=crisesnotes.com The Federal Government Always Money-Finances Its Spending: A Restatement: https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-federal-government-always-money/ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:20) What Is Shadow Money? (14:51) The Collapse of SVB (22:42) The Bank Term Funding Program (29:29) The March Banking Panic Was NOT A Systemic Crisis (31:23) The Savings & Loans Crisis (37:37) Bank Crisis... But The Fed Hiked Rates? (45:17) The New Monetary Policy (01:04:03) Modern Monetary Theory (01:13:03) Re-Thinking Government Borrowing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 24 Apr 2023 18:20:00 -0000
Jeff Snider: The Credit Crunch Is Here As Ultra Rare Bond Market Signal Flashes Red For First Time Since 2008
Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Jeff Snider https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:30) Money Is Getting Herded Into Highest Tier Of Collateral (07:54) Liquidity Preference Is Extreme (15:21) Treasurys Role In Banks' Asset & Liability Management (18:47) Credit Crunch (22:35) Public Ad (23:39) Are The Bank Runs Over? (30:42) Is The "Mild Recession" Forecast Plausible? (33:57) How Many More Rate Hikes Does The Fed Have In The Chamber? (35:41) The Fed's Efforts To Help The Banking System (BTFP, Discount Window, etc.) (39:40) Were Rate Hikes To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (43:08) Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) On Bank Deposit Levels (44:50) Was There "Money Printing" In 2020? (47:42) Did The Banks Take Too Much Interest Rate Risk in 2020 & 2021? (49:48) Defining "Deflationary Money" (55:12) LIBOR Futures Will Be Phased Out, Right? (56:37) Counterargument: Debt Ceiling Is The Reason Short-Term Treasury Bills Are Trading At Such A Premium (01:02:32) Summary Of Jeff's Views On Credit Crunch & Deflationary MoneySat, 22 Apr 2023 11:00:00 -0000
An Update On The "March Banking Panic" | Weekly Round Up
This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 21 Apr 2023 15:09:04 -0000
Brent Johnson on Why The De-Dollarization Narrative Is Overhyped
Recent efforts by foreign leaders have led some to claim that the U.S. Dollar system will soon cease to be the global reserve currency. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to Forward Guidance to argue that these arguments are utterly wrong, and he explains why in great detail. He expects a major squeeze to occur sometime over the next two years, although he and Jack discuss the potential for Chinas re-emergence from recession as a catalyst for more potential short-term dollar weakness. Filmed on April 20, 2023. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:32) "You Shouldn't Go All-In Against The United States & The U.S. Dollar" (12:06) Van Eck (12:55) Why Trade Is Invoiced In Dollars (19:01) The Bretton Woods System And The Rise Of "EuroDollars" (Offshore Dollars) (24:18) "Don't Confuse A Possibility With A Probability" (30:52) Sanctions (33:56) The Gold Standard And The Necessary Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (38:44) Bitcoin Standard Would Be "Massively Deflationary" (40:52) Why Are Central Banks Buying Gold? (42:05) When And Why Does The Dollar Spike Higher Against Other Currencies? (47:58) The Debt Ceiling (58:13 China's Belt and Road Initiative (01:00:58) Fears Of A Sovereign Debt Crisis (01:05:06) Currency Hegemons Will Continue To Be The Norm ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 20 Apr 2023 20:56:57 -0000
Do Banks Have Enough Capital? | Dr. Martien Lubberink
The more capital a bank holds, the more losses it can take before going bust. Dr. Martien Lubberink, professor at Victoria University of Wellington, joins Forward Guidance to define regulatory bank capital and put it in context of the conspicuous bank meltdowns in March. Lubberink opines on the issues at Credit Suisse & Silicon Valley Bank through the lens of bank capital, and he shares insights on the health and nature of the banking system of New Zealand, where he currently resides. Filmed on April 6, 2023. -- Follow Martin Lubberink on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/cetier1 Read Martin Lubberinks blog athttps://capitalissues.co/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Pieces discussed in the interview: The Value of Kiwibank Fresh RBNZ Dashboard data shows New Zealands largest banks on track to meet increasing capital ratio requirements Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:39) Lubberink's Background In Bank Capital During The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (08:04) What Is Bank Capital? (13:37) Silicon Valley Bank Was A Masterclass In "How To Not Run A Bank" (18:16) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (25:55) Permissionless (26:59) Important Regulatory Bank Capital Ratios (37:26) Credit Suisse & Additional Tier 1 Bonds (46:14) Operational Risks (48:11) "New Zealand Banks Are Among The Most Resilient Banks In The World (51:32) Interest Rate Hedging Again (Jack Is Obsessed) (55:10) Blockworks Research (56:11) Kiwi Bank (01:01:33) Monetary Policy Of Reserve Bank of New Zealand (NZ's Central Bank) (01:04:08) Real Estate Boom in New Zealand (01:06:59) Relaxation Of U.S. Banking RegulationTue, 18 Apr 2023 20:11:00 -0000
Money Supply Is Falling By Most Since Great Depression | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her findings on the problems brewing in commercial real estate, the collapse in money supply (M2) growth, and her updated views on the auto and housing markets. -- Today's show is sponsored byPublic.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going tohttps://public.com/forwardguidance -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Boothhttps://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:33) "Deathly Silence" In Private Equity World (16:13) "There Will Be A 'Mark-to-Market' Moment" (19:31) Issues In Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (21:47) Public ad (22:50) Auto Loans Are In Distress (30:36) The Residential Housing Market (36:39) ill Inflation Fall? (38:08) Fed Expects A Recession (41:12) Money Growth Is Lowest Since Great Depression (44:30) The Debt Ceiling (51:09) The Bernanke Doctrine In Jeopardy? (QE whil rates are above zero) (01:03:40) Quantitative Easing Is NOT Back, Says Danielle (01:09:28) Closing Thoughts On Credit Crunch -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 17 Apr 2023 22:40:00 -0000
PIMCOs Cash King On Liquidity, Repo, Debt Ceiling, And Yield Curve Inversion | Jerome Schneider
Jerome Schneider, managing director at PIMCO, is a maestro of short-term funding markets. He oversees PIMCOs >$300 Billion pool of short-term liquidity for investors (the asset side) and also devises strategies to efficiently and robustly fund PIMCOs longer-term investments (the liability side). Schneider gives in-depth insight on how key indicators in the short-term funding world have changed during and after the March 2023 banking crisis, such as liquidity, repo, and the shape of yield curve. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, April 17th, 2023. To learn more about PIMCO, go to http://pimco.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (07:47) Why Are 1-Month Treasury Bills Trading So Expensive ("Rich") To Other Interest Rates? (11:42) The Debt Ceiling (19:02) Permissionless (20:05) The Fed Has Done A Tremendous Job In Cutting Off Tail Risks For Funding (30:43) Thoughts On An Inverted Yield Curve (36:27) The Fed Pivot (41:59) Credit Risk In Short-Term Assets (44:16) Liquidity As Offense Rather Than Liquidity As Defense (48:44) Blockworks Research (49:44) Funding PIMCO's Leveraged Strategies (56:03) Closing Thoughts On Opportunities in Short-Term Markets (59:55) Will Banks Have To Pay More For Deposits?Mon, 17 Apr 2023 14:05:00 -0000
Key Principles For Successful Trading | Simon Ree
On todays episode of Forward Guidance Simon Ree Author & Founder of The Tao Of Trading joins the show for a discussion on the key principles for becoming a successful trader. Simon takes us back to March 2020, a period which kicked off an aggressive bull market leading all the way up to 2022. In 2022, many market participants got caught offside as the aggressive rally suddenly turned into an equally as aggressive bear market. Now in 2023, the bulls and bears standoff at a cross roads waiting for the next indicator of where markets are heading. Simon walks through the difficult past 3 years in markets, and explains the key principles to remember when investing in this current market paradigm. -- Follow Simon: https://twitter.com/simon_ree Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Simon's Entry To Finance: Black Monday (03:37) What Makes A Successful Trader? (05:10) Consistency Is A Superpower (07:29) I am Not A Trader, I am A Risk Manager (09:50) The Process of Making A Trade (12:54) Trading A Bull Market (17:41) Trading A Bear Market (19:14) Permissionless ad (20:17) Trading The Inflationary Bear Market of 2022 (29:05) Market Positioning, Sentiment & Short Squeezes (34:13) Blockworks Research (35:13) The Principles of Technical Analysis (37:19) Trading The Bull Market of 2020 (40:01) Assessing Current Market Conditions 946:02) The TAO of Trading (52:53) The Biggest Opportunities In Markets (56:26) How To Compound Your Returns (01:02:54) Finding The Right Trading Strategy For You -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 14 Apr 2023 17:35:00 -0000
Chris Whalen on Big Bank Earnings and the Return of Credit Risk
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to comment on the ample and growing earnings of the big banks (particularly JPMorgan Chase, whose stock surged over 7% on rosy net income and increasing deposits). Whalen argues that banks unrealized losses on their securities due to interest rate risk have gone down dramatically as interest rates have fallen since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10. However, he expects banks cost of funds (what they have to pay for deposits) to continue to rise and he makes the case that the primary headwind for banks is not interest rate risk, but credit risk. Whalen argues that while there could be more bank failures ahead, he expects it will be the outlier banks that fail, not the mainstream banks. This interview was filmed the morning of Friday, April 14th, shortly after large American banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported their earnings for the first quarter of 2023. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:55) "Banks Have Lots Of Commercial Real Estate Exposure" (06:24) Banks' Unrealized Losses Have Gotten Smaller Over The Past Month (08:25) The Return Of Credit Risk (16:06) Is The Banking Crisis Moderating? If So, Why? (19:18) Van Eck Ad (20:06) There's A Slowdown in Lending (22:08) Quantitative Easing's Distortion Of Bank Balance Sheets (24:32) Chris Suggests The Fed Sell Securities Into The Market (28:27) "The Bid For Risk Free Dollar Assets Is Still Off The Scale" (30:12) Recent Rally In Bonds Has Helped Bank Book Value (36:23) "People Love To Say The Word 'Hedge' And Then Change The Subject"Wed, 12 Apr 2023 23:15:00 -0000
The Commercial Real Estate Default Cycle Has Only Just Begun | Dan McNamara
Dan McNamara, veteran commercial MBS trader and founder of Polpo Capital, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the commercial real estate (CRE) default cycle has only just begun. McNamara notes that the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank is causing regional banks to curb lending to commercial real estate projects, and that as a result many property developers will strategically default and walk away from the buildings. McNamara shares why he has been shorting the riskier tranches of CRE loans via the CMBX, and he tells Jack Farley why the cascade of defaults he expects will cause tremendous damage to the securitized market for CRE loans. Key terms for this interview: CRE = Commercial Real Estate CMBS = Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities CMBX = a synthetic tradable index referencing a basket of CMBS CLO = Collateralized Loan Obligation LTV = Loan-to-value ratio Filmed on April 11, 2023. Follow Dan McNamara on Twitter https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:01) Office Properties Could Decline by 50% Or More (15:25) Defaults WIll Lead To Forced Selling (20:03) Why Rising Interest Rates Has Imperiled Many Commercial Real Estate Deals (23:25) Regional Banks Are Curbing Lending After Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (30:01) Differences Between This and The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) And "The Big Short" (35:03) Shorting Tranches of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (42:09) Views on Highly-Rated Tranches (AAA- and AA-) (45:03) Interest Rate Risk (Duration) Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (47:45) "We Are Pretty Market Neutral (50:17) "We Think The Credit Curve Is Still Too Flat" (54:44) The "Refinancing Game" Is Over (01:11:54) If McNamara Is Right About Commercial Real Estate, How Systemic Will This Be?Mon, 10 Apr 2023 13:41:00 -0000
Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang: A Monetary Plumbing Masterclass
On today's episode of Forward Guidance Lou Crandall, Chief Economist of Wrightson ICAP & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show to discuss the fallout of the recent bank panic. With two monetary plumbing experts on the show, we take the opportunity to cover a wide range of topics including the real reason bank deposits were leaving banks, the impact of the record $2 trillion parked in the reverse repo, how the Fed can use interest rates to control financial stability and the looming debt ceiling. In the opaque world of financial plumbing, there are no two better guests to welcome to the show, but to hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 10/4/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Lou: https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Silicon Valley Bank, Reminiscent of The Savings & Loan Crisis? (06:08) Why Are Deposits Leaving Banks? (11:30) The Plumbing of Treasury Debt (21:34) The Reverse Repo Is A Danger To The Banking System (34:12) Public.com Ad (35:18) How The Fed Can Control Financial Stability Using Interest Rates (50:39) The Debt Ceiling (01:05:56) The Reserve Gap (01:07:43) The 2019 Repo Crisis: Everyone Has A Plan, Until They Get Punched In The Nose (01:13:57) Will Banking Turmoil Lead To A Credit Crunch? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 06 Apr 2023 15:55:00 -0000
A Recession Is Somewhat Unavoidable, Says Liz Ann Sonders
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, joins Jack Farley to share her data-driven investment outlook at a challenging time for global markets. Sonders argues that before the turmoil in the regional banking sector, the U.S. was already in a rolling recession where weakness rolled throughout different parts of the economy. Now, after the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March, Sonders thinks an official recession (i.e. one declared as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER), is more likely, and she says that she thinks a recession is somewhat unavoidable. Given these headwinds, Sonders investment outlook is that it could be a bumpy ride in the short-term. However, Sonders and Farley discuss the importance of a long-term outlook and how market timing very frequently underperforms buy-and-hold strategies. Filmed on April 4th, 2023. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Follow Charles Schwab on Twitter https://twitter.com/CharlesSchwab Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Some of Liz Ann Sonders recent research at Charles Schwab: Under Pressure: Fed Hikes in Face of Bank Turmoil: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting 2023 Quarterly Market Outlook: Fed on the Brink? https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/quarterly-market-outlook Another One Bites the Dust: Banking Saga Continues: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/another-one-bites-dust-banking-saga-continues Caveat Emptor: Important Market Shifts Underway: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/caveat-emptor-important-market-shifts-underway The Price You Pay: A Look at Equity Valuations: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/price-you-pay-look-equity-valuations __ Timestamps: (00:35) The Fed Has Broken Something (03:09) Rate Cuts Might Be Further Away Than The Market Thinks (05:58) Already In A "Rolling Recession" (17:37) Have The Odds Of A Severe Recession (Rather Than Mild) Increased After The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (19:59) Investment Outlook For Stocks (23:11) VanEck Ad (23:59) Equity Valuations: Are Stocks Cheap or Expensive? (33:37) Short-Term Outlook: "Some More Bumps In The Road" (36:12) Time In The Market vs Timing The Market (39:27) Liquidity and Gold (41:28) Sectors And Factors Leading The Stock Market (44:14) "Growth vs. Value" Is A False Choice (49:59) International Developed Markets and Emerging Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 05 Apr 2023 11:00:00 -0000
The Next Chapter In Interest Rate History | Dr. Richard Sylla
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Leonard N. Stern School of Business, author and financial historian Dr. Richard Sylla joins the show for a discussion on one of his most widely studied areas... interest rates. After authoring "A History of Interest Rates", a book which examined over four millennia of interest rates trhoughout periods of inflation, financial crises' and recessions, there's no one better equipped to discuss the Fed's current tightening cycle and how it impacted banks such as SVB in the Fed's current quest to fight inflation. Just how severe is this current tightening cycle when compared to other times in history? According to Dr. Sylla, this is nothing new as "history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: A History of Interest Rates: https://www.amazon.co.uk/History-Interest-Rates-Wiley-Finance/dp/0471732834 Alexander Hamilton on Finance, Credit, and Debt: https://www.amazon.com/Alexander-Hamilton-Finance-Credit-Debt/dp/0231184565 Alexander Hamilton, Central Banker: Crisis Management During the U.S Financial Panic of 1792:https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/research/alexander_hamilton_central_banker.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) A Return To Normalcy For Interest Rates (05:10) How Interest Rate Rises Led To SVB's Collapse (09:24) The First Bank of The United States (13:36) Paul Volcker's Historic Interest Rate Rises (20:35) Why We Have Inflation Now... But Not Post 2008 (28:03) Permissionless (29:06) The Fed's Between A Rock & A Hard Place (32:03) The Savings & Loan Crisis (37:41) All Signs Point Towards A Recession (44:59) Blockworks Research (45:59) What An Inverted Yield Curve Really Indicates (48:49) A Banking Panic Solution, Through The Eyes of Alexander Hamilton (57:03) How ZIRP Caused Problems In The Financial System -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 04 Apr 2023 15:17:00 -0000
The Bank Panic Is Already Over (Heres Why) | John Maxfield
John Maxfield, banking specialist and author of the Maxfield on Banks Substack, joins Jack to discuss the history and future of the U.S. banking system. Drawing on his wide-ranging historical knowledge, Maxfield notes that when it comes to banks, failure is the norm, not the exception. Maxfield argues that the acute phase of the banking panic in the U.S. is likely over, as loan yields will rise and deposit flight will slow down. Maxfield makes the case that, paradoxically, a serious cause of bank failure is not just not enough liquidity: often banks fail because there was too much liquidity. Maxfield and Farley take an in-depth look at Silicon Valley Banks enormous influx in deposits, which more than tripled since the first quarter of 2020, which they used to buy an enormous amount of securities that lost value as the Fed raised rates. Filmed on April 3, 2023. ____ Follow John Maxfield on Twitter https://twitter.com/MaxfieldOnBanks Maxfield on Banks Substack: https://maxfieldonbanks.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:14) "Failure Is The Rule, Not The Exception" When It Comes To Banking (06:51) Diagnosing Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) Collapse (16:45) Excess Liquidity Is The Problem, Not The Solution (22:58) "Interest Rate Risk Can Be As Deadly As Credit Risk" (27:04) Permissionless (28:08) Some Banks' Unrealized Losses Exceed Book Value (36:22)Is The Bank Panic Over? (John Says Yes) (39:51) "Banks Will Always Make Money" (44:33) Will Banks Decrease Their Lending? (52:17) Blockworks Research (53:15) How Did Banks' Manage Their Interest Rate Risk? (58:02) Assumptions About Deposit Duration Play A Key Role In Asset Liability (Mis)Matching (01:05:03) About The Maxfield On Banks Substack (01:07:40) Parallel To The Savings & Loan Crisis (01:10:55) Big Banks Get Bailed Out, Small Banks Don't (Unfair?) (01:11:47) Executive Compensation And Bank Performance (An Inverse Relationship) (01:13:27) Bank Insolvency Is Not Necessarily A Death Sentence (01:21:01) What Banks Need To Learn From SVB's Collapse ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 03 Apr 2023 11:20:00 -0000
Peter Stella & Joseph Wang on Debt Death Spirals, Monetarism, and The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level
Peter Stella, Former Head of the IMF Central Banking Division, joins Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and author at Fedguy.com, and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on: -what really causes inflation -monetarism, fiscal theory of the price level, and modern monetary theory (MMT) -the unrealized losses on the Feds balance sheet -why yield curve control likely wont be necessary (or so Peter argues) -the longer the duration of a governments debt, the less inflation is required to inflate it away -when a central bank incurs unrealized losses, who wins and who loses? Filmed on March 29, 2023. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wangs writings: https://fedguy.com/ Josephs latest piece, Ameridollars: https://fedguy.com/ameridollars/ Peter Stella on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Stellar_Consult Peter Stellas work: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/ Do Central Banks Need Capital? by Peter Stella: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Do-Central-Banks-Need-Capital-2260 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:15) Peter Stella's Background At The International Monetary Fund (IMF) (03:55) Joseph Wang On The Flaws Of Monetarism (05:52) Milton Friedman: It's The Government That Prints Money (07:56) The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level (13:38) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (24:12) Real Value Of U.S. Debt Is Lower Now Than March 2020 (37:33) Permissionless (38:38) The Fed Has Huge Unrealized Losses On Its Balance Sheet (45:29) Details About The Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Purchases In 2020 (51:51) Did The Fed Help Wealthy Homeowners Refinance Their Mortgages In 2020? (54:21) Blockworks Research Plug (55:22) When The Federal Reserve Has Unrealied Losses On Its Balance Sheets, Who Loses and Who Gains? (01:13:50) Joseph Wang's Summary Of This Conversation (01:15:08) Yield Curve Control and Potential Debt Death Spiral ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 30 Mar 2023 11:00:00 -0000
Commercial Real Estate Is In Serious Trouble | Nick Halaris
Nick Halaris, President of real estate investment firm Metros Capital, joins Jack to share insight on the challenges commercial real estate faces after a surge in interest rates and the fall of two U.S. banks. The phrase commercial real estate is a catch-all terms that refers to offices, apartment buildings (multi-family), retail, and industrial spaces. Unlike residential real estate, which is typically financed with long-term fixed-rate mortgages, a lot of commercial real estate was financed with floating rate debt, which means that as interest rates rose last year, the interest expense of some commercial real estate developers rose dramatically. Halaris argues that the turmoil in the banking system will likely induce banks to tighten their lending, which would inflict further hardship onto commercial real estate, much of which is financed via smaller regional banks. Filmed on Tuesday, March 28, 2023. ____ Nick Halaris website: https://nickhalaris.com/ Profit+ Subscribe Link: https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/ Nick Halaris on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NickHalaris Nick Halaris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-halaris-4a25b93/ ____ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:25) What Is Commercial Real Estate? (03:20) Interest Rates Have A Huge Impact on Real Estate Valuations (11:48)"Commercial Real Estate Is In Serious Trouble" (16:58) Delinquency Rates Are Rising... (19:13) Real Estate Is No Longer An Inflation Hedge (22:45) Permissionless Ad (23:48) Real Estate "Cap Rates" And Why They Are So Often Misunderstood (26:53) "Accounting Games" In Real Estate (35:02) How Bank Turmoil Will Impact Real Estate (38:42) The End Game For Real Estate (44:30) "it's Really Hard To Get A Loan" (46:37) Prices Will Go Down More (48:36) Blockworks Research Ad (49:36) Silver Lining: Rates Could Go Down (53:33) Retail Real Estate (Shopping Malls, etc.) (54:39) The Housing Market Will Probably Remain Strong (59:29) Private Equity's Investment Into Housing (01:01:51) Nick Halaris' Newsletter, Profit Plus (01:04:25) Closing Thoughts On Rising Interest Rates ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 27 Mar 2023 05:05:00 -0000
Former Central Banker on China, Global Discord, and Financial Stability | Sir Paul Tucker
Sir Paul Tucker, research fellow at The Harvard Kennedy School and former deputy governor of The Bank of England, joins Forward Guidance to discuss ideas from his latest book, Global Discord: Values And Power In A Fractured World Order. Tucker tells Jack Farley that Chinas growing economic might and rejection of liberal values poses a challenge to the U.S. role as global hegemon, and he details ways to reinvigorate international cooperation during the current period of geopolitical strife. Tucker shares his views on the recent turmoil in the banking system, weighing on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the acute need for bank resolution that can maintain financial stability while winding down ailing banks. Tucker and Farley also discuss concepts such as the Triffin Dilemma, the offshore (Eurodollar) dollar system, and central banks role as lenders of last resort. __ Global Discord from Princeton Press: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691229317/global-discord Global Discord on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Global-Discord-Values-Power-Fractured/dp/0691229317 __ About Paul Tucker: http://paultucker.me/resources/ About Tuckers work at The Harvard Kennedy School: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/fellows/research-fellows#sir_paul_tucker More about todays guest: For over thirty years, Sir Paul Tucker was a central banker, and a member of the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee from 2002. He was Deputy Governor from 2009 to late 2013, including serving on the Financial Policy Committee (vice chair) and Prudential Regulatory Authority Board (vice chair). He was knighted by Britain in 2014 for his services to central banking. Internationally, he was a member of the steering committee of the G20 Financial Stability Board, and chaired its Committee on the Resolution of Cross-Border Banks to solve too big to fail. Tucker was a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements, and was chair of the Basel Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems from April 2012. After leaving central banking, Tucker was chair of the Systemic Risk Council from December 2015 to August 2021. He now writes at the intersection of political economy and political philosophy as research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. In addition to Global Discord, Tucker is also the author of Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State (2018). __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:55) The Rise Of China Will Have Immense Consequences On A Global Scale (04:44) Shortcomings of Trade Policy and Enforcement (10:41) Downsides of U.S.' Trade Deficit (20:18) The Bretton Woods Regime (21:59) The Triffin Dilemma (26:32) The Eurodollar System (27:31) The Fed's Swap Lines In 2008 (28:49) Importance of Multi-Disciplinary Understanding For Policymakers (31:17) The Debt Ceiling (21:27) Thucydides' Trap (25:57) The Contest Between China and The U.S. Is "Everywhere" (39:26) Document 9 of The Chinese Communist Party (45:29) Inflation (49:37) Regional Bank Failure In The U.S. (55:43) The Takeover Of Credit Suisse By UBS (01:02:49) Defining A "Bailout" As A Use Of Taxpayer Money (01:07:09) Bagehot's Dictum (01:15:31) Credit Suisse Contingent Convertible ("CoCo") Bonds (01:17:55) Tying Geopolitical And Banking Together __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 23 Mar 2023 21:40:00 -0000
The Next Phase Of The Banking Crisis | Joseph Wang & Randy Woodward
Today Jack interviews Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James Financial, and Joseph Wang, author at https://fedguy.com/, for a conversation on how the recent banking turmoil has muddled the Federal Reserves inflation-fighting mission. Woodward, a banking veteran with a rare understanding of the regional banks investment portfolio, gives a glimpse into the interest-rate exposure (duration) of the mid-sized and community bank community that is unavailable by just looking at public filings. Woodward argues that Silicon Valley Banks (SVB) fall was not due to its interest rate risk management and that the Federal Reserve is to blame. Wang vehemently (but very politely) disagrees and what ensues is a masterclass on the most salient issues facing the U.S. banking industry. Filmed on Thursday, March 23, 2023, a day after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) Joseph's Take On March Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC) (04:59) Is The Fed To Blame For The Fall Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (12:35) Available-For-Sale (AFS) vs. Held-To-Maturity (HTM) Accounting Treatment (26:16) Public.com Ad (27:20) Was Silicon Valley Bank's Lack of Interest Rate Hedges Negligent? (34:30) There's No Way To Hedge Perfectly" (41:10) Uninsured Deposit Base As A New Vulnerability For U.S. Banks (53:01) The Psychological Aspect of Bank Runs (57:07) Bernanke on The Great Depression: Bad Visuals Are Self-Fulfilling Prophecies (01:00:06) Should The FDIC Deposit Guarantee Be Raised? (01:02:39) Will Bank Turmoil Cause Banks To Curb Lending? (01:06:41) How Many More Times Will The Fed Hike (If At All)? (01:08:39) BTFP is NOT Quantitative Easing, Says Joseph Wang (01:10:13) Central Banking 101 (01:14:22) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 22 Mar 2023 21:16:00 -0000
Michael Howell: Can The Fed Keep Raising Rates During A Banking Crisis? | Michael Howell
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in! ____ Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 21 Mar 2023 21:38:00 -0000
Something Systemic Has Happened | Daniel Neilson
Does the ongoing turmoil in the banking world constitute a Minksy moment? Daniel Neilson, assistant professor of monetary economic at Bard College at Simons Rock and author of Minsky (2019), argues yes. Neilson explores the potential of contagion within the banking world, and he makes the case that the Federal Reserves Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) as well as the FDIC backstop might make this banking crisis short-lived. Neilson shares with Jack Farley several in-depth charts on the Feds balance sheet that might indicate a turning point and the pair share their views on the Federal Reserves meeting on March 22, 2023. Filmed the afternoon of March 21, 2023. -- Daniel Neilsons article on Silicon Valley Bank: https://www.soonparted.co/p/silicon-valley-bank Daniel Neilsons article on Feds BTFP and other refinancing channels: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-ii Daniel Neilsons chart pack on the SVB Panic: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-iii Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (05:08) "This Is A Minksy Moment" (18:04) The Takeover of Credit Suisse (28:30) Permissionless (29:33) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) vs. The Fed's Discount Window (39:32) Can The Banking Panic Be Stopped In Its Tracks? (43:33) Blockworks Research (44:37)First Republic Bank ($FRC) and Bank Profitability (49:32) The Fed Readies Its Dollar Swap Lines (55:43) The Federal Reserve's New Hiking Path -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 20 Mar 2023 21:55:00 -0000
Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game
Marc Cohodes, accomplished short-seller and financial bloodhound, is on the ultimate hot-streak. Over the past six months, he has been the sternest critic of FTX, Silvergate, and Signature Bank, all of which either have ceased operations as a corporate entity or will do so shortly. He shares what led him to call out FTX in the summer of 2022 (months before its bankruptcy in the fall) and why he shorted the stocks of Silvergate ($SI) and Signature Bank ($SBNY), which have both collapsed in value (a share of Silvergate trades at less than two dollars and shares of Signature Bank no longer trade after it was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on March 12). Cohodes also explains the immense difficulties that short-sellers frequently face, and he shares his opinion on turmoil swirling around the U.S. regional banking system. Over the course of this interview, Cohodes makes several allegations which are solely his own opinion. Filmed the afternoon of March 20, 2023. ____ Follow Marc Cohodes on Twitter https://twitter.com/AlderLaneEggs Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (14:59) Silvergate and Signature Bank as "Publicly-Traded Crime Scenes" (23:47) Silicon Valley Bank (31:30) Is This Similar to 2008? (Answer: Not Really) (58:43) What Marc Is Working On Now (01:04:18) Blockworks Research (01:05:18) The Dangerous Life Of A Professional Short-Seller ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sun, 19 Mar 2023 19:05:00 -0000
The Banks Didnt Hedge Enough | Mustafa Chowdhury
For 40% off an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime (220 / year instead of 374 / year), go to https://macrohive.com/jack or use discount code JACK at checkout. Macro Hive sample report on Silicon Valley Bank (co-written by Mustafa Chowdhury): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/silicon-valley-bank-how-the-government-plans-to-contain-the-fallout/ ___ Just how bad was the risk management at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) when it came to the threat of rising rates? And now that rates have exploded higher over the past year, is this interest rate risk limited to only a few banks, or are these risks spread throughout the entire U.S. banking system? Jackstoday is uniquely qualified to answer these questions. Mustafa Chowdhury, chief rates strategist at Macro Hive, practically invented the field of interest rate risk management, and two decades ago he was successfully managing interest rate risk on Freddie Macs giant portfolio of mortgages worth hundreds of billions of dollars (several times that of Silicon Valley Bank). Chowdhury argues that, contrary to claims otherwise, the U.S. banking system was not sufficiently hedged for 2022's interest rate shock. Filmed on March 16, 2023. ___ Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:33) Mustafa Chowdhury's Background (4:39) "That's The Mortgage Game" (11:27) Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: Interest Rate Risk Lurking At The Scene Of The Crime (21:14) How To Properly Hedge Interest Rate Risk Properly (27:37) Chowdhury Pioneered Use Of Swaptions In 1990s (29:36) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB): Who To Blame? (33:20) Accounting Treatment (Available For Sale Vs. Held-To-Maturity) (41:47) The Fed's Convexity Quantitative Easing (QE) Continues (50:35) Bank Profitability With Higher Deposit Costs (01:03:50) Interest Rate Risk Is Spread Throughout The U.S. Banking System (01:11:52) "There Will Be Fewer Bank Runs" Because Of FDIC Relief (01:19:29) Will Fed Cut In 2023? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 17 Mar 2023 13:25:00 -0000
This is NOT 2008 | Harris Kupperman
Harris Kuppy Kupperman, chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he doesnt think the ongoing turmoil in the regional banking system will have much effect outside on the economy or markets. He explains why he thinks the banking businesses do not make great investments. When Jack Farley asks what he does like, Kuppys answer is simple: oil. He explains why he remains exceptionally bullish on black gold and also shares a stock which he has invested in: Journey Energy. Lastly, Kuppy shares his dos and donts of investing. Filmed the afternoon of March 16, 2023. Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://kedm.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:58) The Run on Silicon Valley Bank (03:49) Will Measures By Fed Treasury & FDIC Be Enough To Prevent Future Panics? (05:55) Kuppy on Bank Stocks (10:26) Are Rising Rates Good Or Bad For Banks? (15:05) Blockworks Research (16:04) Kuppy Is Very Bullish On Oil (25:34) Natural Gas (29:10) Journey Energy (31:41) How To Value Oil Companies (36:14) Hedging At Oil Companies (37:33) Permissionless (38:36) Kuppy's Shorter-Term Market Views (44:19) Kuppy's "Dont's" of Investing (49:55) KEDM ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 16 Mar 2023 10:06:00 -0000
Governor Kuroda: The Decades Most Consequential Central Banker
This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes! Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 15 Mar 2023 20:50:00 -0000
Lyn Alden: Bank Runs And The Financial Repression End Game | Lyn Alden
For some time now it has been the belief of many Fed-watchers that the Federal Reserve would continue to hike interest rates until itbreaks something. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to argue that the stunning collapse of two large U.S. banks represents such breakage. Alden tells Jack Farley that this damage will soon give way to a period of low real interest rates, where inflation runs above Treasury yields. Filmed the afternoon of March 15, 2023. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Aldens writings can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:43) The Cause Of The Turmoil In Banking System (07:08) Are Rising Interest Rates Actually Good For Banks? (08:50) Alden's Outlook on Banks As A Business (12:47) Has Something "Broken"? (15:38) Interest Rate Risk In The U.S. Banking System (22:43) Public Ad (23:48) Will Banks Become More Cautious About Making Loans? (31:11) Is The Fed's Campaign To Raise Interest Rates Over? (38:37) Debt, Demographics, and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) (53:28) Recession Risk (58:48) Stock Market During Financial Repression (01:01:29) Fractional Reserve Banking and "The Narrow Bank" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 14 Mar 2023 22:40:00 -0000
Michael Kao: Bank Bailout Allows The Fed To Tighten Even More
Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the turmoil in the banking sector, the consequences of the policy response from Washington, and the fate of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency. Kao argues that the Feds recent assistance to U.S. banks allows the Fed to hike more in order to fight inflation. Kao also shares his view on todays consumer price index (CPI) reading, China, and the global oil market. Recorded at 1pm ET on March 14, 2023. ____ Follow Michael Kao on Twitter: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Kaoboy Musings on Substack: https://urbankaoboy.substack.com/about Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:36) The Banking Panic Could Be Over, Says Michael Kao (09:14) It's The Shadow Banking Sector That's In Trouble (14:11) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy? (17:46) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy? (20:59) Blockworks Research (21:57) Do We Have Structural Inflation? (25:03) Black Swan: Oil To $300 (37:33) China's Oil Demand Is Lower Than Expected (41:13) The U.S. Dollar Wrecking Ball (46:24) Permissionless Ad (47:26) China's Hidden Debt (55:36) How Stable Is The U.S. Dollar As The Global Reserve Currency? (01:08:36) Closing Thoughts On Bank Panic & Federal Reserve ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 13 Mar 2023 23:30:00 -0000
The Bank Bailout Will Create Moral Hazard | Joseph Wang & Stephen Miran
On Sunday, March 12, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced emergency measures to support U.S. regional banks experiencing bank runs. Were these actions a bailout and have they already created unintended consequences? To Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the New York Federal Reserve, the answer to both of these questions is an unambiguous yes. Joseph joins Stephen Miran, co-founder & portfolio manager at Amberwave Partners, alongside Jack Farley for an in-depth conversation on the banking intervention and its effect on moral hazard and monetary plumbing. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 4pm ET. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://twitter.com/SteveMiran Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wangs latest piece, Hidden To Market,on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/hidden-to-market/ The joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the FDIC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm Federal Reserves Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm __ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:47 The Bank "Bailout" 09:10 The Shocking Incompetence of Silicon Valley Bank 20:02 Will There Be More Bank Failures? 22:40 Public Ad 23:44 Moral Hazard in U.S. Banking Bailouts 27:55 Why Hasn't Silicon Valley Bank Been Bought? 31:35 Emergency Relief From Fed, Treasury, and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) 41:41 Consequences of Fed's BTFP Program on Big For Duration 52:25 Does Huge Fall In Interest Rates Mean Fed's Hiking Is Over? 01:01:13 February Inflation Data __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 13 Mar 2023 21:48:00 -0000
The Bank Crisis Is "Overblown" | Joseph Wang
Signature and Silicon Valley Bank have collapsed. In this breaking news episode, hosts Jason Yanowitz and Jack Farley interview Joseph Wang to discuss the banking system failures and what to expect next. Joseph dives deep into the risk both banks took by not hedging interest rate risk, how this could have been avoided and whether other banks are in a similar position? Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 10:30am ET. NOTE: This was originally filmed as an episode of "Empire," the crypto podcast hosted by Santiago Santos and Jason Yanowitz, the co-founder of Blockworks. Listen to this episode on the Empire feed: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/signature-banks-demise-whos-next-joseph-wang/id1554930038?i=1000603971972 We then discuss if the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program was the right move? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune! - - Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7 Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 13 Mar 2023 20:10:00 -0000
Danielle DiMartino Booth: A Banking Panic Makes The Feds Job More Difficult
To get a 20% discount off an annual subscription to Danielle DiMartino Booth https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/guidance and use code GUIDANCE Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to share her thoughts on how the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector will affect the economy and the Federal Reserves fight with inflation. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 1pm ET. -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:30:00 -0000
Crazy Things Are Happening In The Japanese Bond Market | Weston Nakamura
Check out Weston Nakamuras new show, Market Depth (First episode airs on Wednesday March 15): Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3YMXoHm Apple: https://apple.co/3ytqwZ8 -- Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unchanged, and maintaining a highly dovish stance as he exits. Governor Kuroda held his final press conference in which his only regret was that he was unable to achieve a sustained 2% inflation rate in Japan- despite a backdrop of Japans core CPI currently double that of the 2% objective, and many market participants and pundits calling for a final signature BOJ-shock for this meeting. Jack Farley welcomes back Weston Nakamura again for a third consecutive BOJ policy meeting review to discuss the deteriorating state of market dysfunction and the warped yield curve amidst the Bank of Japans unprecedented scale of continued easing. They also review Governor Kurodas history-shaping unprecedented tenure, as well as the incoming new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, and the behind-the-scenes scramble to find who Weston feels is a disaster of a pick for the post-Kurodanomics era, using references from the hit-series Breaking Bad for character context. Today also marks the beginning of another era, in which Tokyo-based derivatives trader and financial markets content creator Weston Nakamura officially joins Blockworks Macro to host a brand new podcast called Market Depth - in which Weston provides critical cross-asset market commentary and insights from Asia- where market activity and policy developments are having ever greater impact upon the global economy and market landscape. Market Depth debuts on Wednesday March 15th 2023, so be sure to follow the podcast on your favorite app, and subscribe to Blockworks Macro YouTube so that you dont miss an episode! -- Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:05) Kuroda (Departing BOJ Governor) As Gus Fring (13:19) Kazuo Ueda (Incoming BOJ Governor) (18:09) Frankenstein Policy (23:26) Japanese Inflation (27:45) Bank Stocks Fall In Japan (29:54) The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (36:37) Liquidity (43:04) Consequences For Japanese Yen -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 10 Mar 2023 20:31:00 -0000
Chris Whalen: The Fed Is To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
Today, Silicon Valley Bank, an institution with over $200 Billion worth of assets, failed. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why. Whalen attributes the collapse in book value of SVB Financial (the entity that owns Silicon Valley Bank) to the Feds rapid hikes in interest rates, which severely depressed the market value of the banks holdings. Whalen argues that, unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates and opens the discount window, the U.S. is at risk of a banking crisis. -- Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 09 Mar 2023 14:05:00 -0000
Does Powell Mean Business? | David Hay
Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil. Hay describes how Volckers drastic actions turned him into a bond bull (Volcker meant business) for his entire career, but he shares why now he is not optimistic about bonds despite falling inflation and Fed Chair Powells spirited rate hikes. Farley asks Hay if Powell means business, and Hay shares his insights on corporate bonds, nuclear energy, and common investor mistakes. Hay also argues that unprofitable growth stocks could have another leg down as bond yields continue to rise. Follow David Hay on Twitter https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Haymaker Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/ __ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:38 Is The Bond Bull Market Over? 09:32 A Fiscal Funding Crisis? 11:09 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) 14:32 Are Rate Hikes Effective At Fighting Inflation? 17:44 Hay's Bearish View On Bonds 21:07Oil, Gas, Uranium, and Copper 30:04 Permissionless 31:05 Investing in Corporate Bonds 34:17 Individual Stock Ideas 37:26 New Lows In Stock Market? 40:33 Outlook on Energy Stocks: "Easy Money Has Already Been Made" 49:15 About Evergreen Gavekal and The Haymaker Substack 51:44 Learning From The Volcker Era: What Was 1980 & 1981 Like? 55:33 Does Powell Mean Business? 58:10 Blockworks Research Plug 59:07 Dos & Don'ts of Investing 01:06:09 The Most Crowded Trade Right Now 01:09:05 Another Down Leg In High-Valuation Stocks?Mon, 06 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000
The Case For Bonds | Alfonso Peccatiello
Alfonso (Alf) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, higher for longer, the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on March 2, 2023. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass on Substack: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023 (08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer" (15:06) The Housing Market (28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf (33:16) Permissionless plug (34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession? (38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks (45:04)Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question) (48:35) Inflation (52:29) Research Plug (53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?" (56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing? (59:56) The Macro Compass -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Sat, 04 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000
Breaking Down Warren Buffett's 2023 Shareholder Letter | Yun Li
Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM -- This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 03 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000
Navigating A "Structural Shift" In Markets | Joseph Wang & Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealthjoins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point. With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the perfect catalyst for a sustained bull market, or not? We also discuss Joseph & Martin's thought on the labor market, the outlook for global central banks and the path ahead for 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Martin: https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Managing Money During 2022 (04:43) Markets Are Signalling A New "Turning Point" (10:19) 2008 Signalled A "Structural Shift" In Canadian Asset Management (15:41) The Bank of Canada... Follows The Fed (17:55) Energy Is The Most Hated Trade Out There (24:11) Natural Gas & Energy Producers (30:24) Permissionless Plug (31:26) Housing & Interest Rates In Canada (37:50) Are We Heading For A Recession? (40:06) 2020 Marked A "Structural Shift" (44:30) The Labor Market Remains Strong (52:46) The Anguish of Central Banking (57:42) The Role of Structured Notes In A Portfolio (01:07:30) The Path Ahead For 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 02 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000
Mike Green: Recession Approaches As Housing & Car Markets Weaken
Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last years spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estate and auto lending that is only beginning to draw attention. Green concludes that the U.S. economy is headed towards a recession, and he then proceeds to explain zero day-to-expiry (0DTE) options and weigh hedging strategies in the volatility space. Filmed on February 28th, 2023. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance -- Mike Greens Substack: https://michaelwgreen.substack.com/ Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Simplify on Twitter https://twitter.com/SimplifyAsstMgt Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Is The Labor Market Truly Strong? (05:46) Where We Are In The Economic Cycle (08:40) Commercial Real Estate & Auto Market (10:59) Interest Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Economy (14:20) We Are Approaching A Recession (20:52) Explaining The Recent Rally (24:58)Is Liquidity Rising? (29:08) Public Ad (30:12) The True Cause Of Inflation (33:19) Debt Is Just A Tool (36:02) Outlook on Stocks And Bonds (38:25) What A Bear Market Dominated By Passive Flows Looks Like (42:47) Zero Day To Expiry Options (0DTE) (58:49) Conclusions about 0DTE Options (01:06:03) Simplify Asset Management (01:09:16) Advanced Discussion on Options & Hedging (01:13:29) Disclaimer on Options (01:14:24) Cash Is A Cheap Option -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 27 Feb 2023 12:45:00 -0000
Restrictions On Investments Into China Are Imminent | Harald Malmgren & Nicholas Glinsman
Right now, U.S. officials in Washington D.C. are preparing legislation that will cut off foreign investment into China. Thats according to Jacks two guests today, Harald Malmgren & Nick Glinsman. According to them, the Biden administration is preparing an executive order that will fundamentally alter Americas financial relationship with China. Harald Malmgren is an economist, ambassador, and former adviser to four U.S. presidents, and Nicholas Glinsman is an investor who has worked at macro hedge funds such as Brevan Howard. Their new venture Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Email jack@blockworks.co for discounted access to Malmgren Glinsman Partners (Daily newsletter $900 per year, weekly institutional product available via request). -- Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) The Fraying Of U.S China Relations (09:05) "China's Growth Model Is Dying" (18:33) Restriction of Foreign Investment In China - What Would It Look Like? (26:18) Are We In A New Economic Cold War? (35:31) Putin & Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine (41:31) "The Sternness of NATIO is New" (45:12) A Potential Peace Deal Negotiated By China? (51:49) "The Market Is Not Ready For This" (54:52) Malmgren-Glinsman Partners (59:12) Liquidity is NOT Rising, Says Malmgren (01:07:00) Is Credit Contracting? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 23 Feb 2023 12:25:00 -0000
Doomberg & Steve Keen: The Green New Deal and Energy Security
How should the world decarbonize its economy and maximize human flourishing? Steve Keen, post-Keynesian economist and Green New Deal proponent, explores this question with Doomberg, energy advocate and green chicken, in a no holds barred discourse on the future of energy and climate. -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Steve Keen on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfSteveKeen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Doomberg on Substack https://doomberg.substack.com/about Steve Keen Patreon https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) What Is Wrong With Current Energy Policy? (12:44) The Green New Deal (16:10) ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:20) "Garbage" Analysis of Climate Change by Neoclassical Economics (29:10) Permissionless Plug (30:12) Nuclear, Solar, and Wind (42:30) Government Action vs. Private Sector (51:07) Doom on Europe's Energy Situation (59:19) "I Would Be Nationalizing All Fossil Fuel Companies" (01:02:35) Research plug (01:03:33) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 20 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000
The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan
The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a soft landing scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesnt enter a recession. The odds of a soft landing appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last? Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates. Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192 -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is The Soft Landing? (04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low (12:45) January Inflation Data (19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates? (24:50) Outlook for Stocks (29:02) Permissionless Plug (30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound (36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade (41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening? (45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys (51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates (01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 16 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000
Learning From Financial Crises | Joseph Wang & Steven Kelly
What is a true financial crisis, how does it differ from the mere popping of a speculative bubble or a vanilla recession, and what are the current risks of a financial crisis right now? Steven Kelly, an expert on financial crises and Senior Research Associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) to discuss these questions. Wang, a former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve, shares his insight on why, despite the Feds quantitative tightening (QT) and rapid rate hikes, liquidity remains high. Kelly and Wang agree that the risk of a true financial crisis such as the one in 2008 is unlikely to occur, because as Kelly argues, banks have much more capital to endure losses. Filmed on February 13, 2023. -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Steven Kelly on bank regulation: https://rb.gy/isdjlm Joseph Wang on QThttps://rb.gy/fdwd5j -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) What Is A Financial Crisis? (05:14) "It's Really Hard To Find Capital In A Crisis" (08:16) Bank Capital Ratios (16:35) What Is The Risk Of A Financial Crisis Right Now? (22:06) The Federal Reserve As The Dealer Of Last Resort (27:20) Public Ad (28:28) Joseph Wang On The Fed During March 2020 (34:25) Do Rate Hikes and Quantitative Tightening (QT) Increase Risk of Financial Crisis? (36:51) Why Is Liquidity Rising? (42:51) What Is The "Problematic" Collateral Now? (46:36) "Everything Looks Fine" (50:49) Unrealized Losses on Bank Balance Sheets Due To Rate Hikes (54:05) Inverted Yield Curve (54:56) The Debt Ceiling (01:00:41) Is There A Limit To How High The Fed Can Hike? (01:03:36) Potential Risks In The Shadow Banking System (01:13:19) Inflation As A Financial Risk Itself -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 13 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000
Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Back
Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the worlds leading expert on global liquidity, a key concept in finance that relates to the relative ease of financing in markets around the world. After previously calling in 2022 that a collapse in liquidity would usher in a bad year for risk assets, Howell returns to Forward Guidance with happier tidings. Howell now argues that global liquidity conditions reached a nadir in October 2022 and since then have been rising, in part due to the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) injecting trillions of Yuan into the Chinese financial system, as well as money market funds pulling cash from the Feds reverse repo (RRP) facility. Howell also shares with Forward Guidance listeners his thoughts on why the yield curve is sending a false signal, as well as on private credit creation and cross-border flows. -- Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:40) Liquidity Is Rising - Why? (06:17) But What About Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (09:03) Treasury Market Liquidity & Bank Reserves (18:10) People's Bank of China Is Injecting Lots of Liquidity (25:48) Y2K Fed Comparison (30:50) Market Outlook for 2023 (32:58) Curve Ad (35:12) Liquidity Outlook For Next Few Years (41:38) Inverted Yield Curve Could Be Sending False Signal (50:40) Are Rate Cuts Actually Coming? (59:40) Private Sector Liquidity & Cross-Border Flows (1:06:50) Consequences On Global Economy (1:13:01) Is Liquidity Resurgence Already Priced In? (1:17:48) "Rebound" Phase In Liquidity Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 09 Feb 2023 16:02:00 -0000
Bear Market Not Over, Says Veteran Trader Who Made 163% Return in 2022 | Neal Berger
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagles View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market. After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks around the world tightened liquidity, in response to the record high inflation rates that shocked markets all around the world. In this interview, Neal walks through the market dynamics that allowed him to spot this trend reversal of the previous 10+ years. As central banks began tightening & reducing liquidity, Neal launched the contrarian macro fund in April 2021 and saw an opportunity that many overlooked. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (16:14) The Fed in 2022 (21:52) "The Sell-Off Was Orderly" (24:02) Blockworks Research (25:36) The Summer Rally of July & August 2022 (27:24) Thoughts On Current Rally (32:02) Rates & Stock Relationship (36:11) Permissionless Plug (37:14) The Labor Market Is Strong (40:31) Are Stocks Pricing In A Soft Landing? (44:23) Defining Liquidity (46:42) Which Is Neal Berger More Bearish On - Stocks Or Bonds? (48:43) Is This A Suckers' Rally? (50:53) IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME (51:46) Yield Curve View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 06 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000
The Bond Market Is Wrong | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater. Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/ Joseph Wangs latest piece, Come Hell Or High Water: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308. Offer ends February 20, 2023. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief (04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong (07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%" (01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go (15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case (28:06) Curve Ad (29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling? (36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening? (46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water" (01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate (01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%? (01:14:45) Higher For Longer! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 02 Feb 2023 21:58:00 -0000
Central Bankers vs. The Bond Market | Roger Hirst
Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced to pivot and cut rates. Hirst also shares his view on China, silver, and the labor market. Lykeion Research https://www.thelykeion.com/research/ For more information about Real Vision Creative Studios, email customvideos@realvision.com This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today. ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:31) Disconnect Between Central Banks And Markets (11:29) The Labor Market Is Tight But Not Strong" (14:36) Fighting Against The "Doomsday Scenario" (20:57) Base Case For 2023 (24:09) Is Refinancing Risk Delayed? (29:40) Soft Landing Won't Happen But Plane Will Be Circling The Airport For Long Time (33:43) Public Ad (35:49) Controlled Explosions In China" (41:52) The Merging of Geopolitics and Macro (46:48) The Debt Supercycle (49:53) Actionable Trade Ideas: Copper, Silver, and Calls (56:23) Bonds and Oil (01:04:51) Private Equity (01:09:26) Recession Type and Length (01:15:59) The Power Of Changing Your MindWed, 01 Feb 2023 22:39:00 -0000
Jim Bianco on Fed Chair Powell's Reluctance To Discipline The Bulls (February 2023 FOMC)
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation. -- Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 31 Jan 2023 20:08:22 -0000
What This Fed Watcher Is On The Lookout For | Colby Smith (February 2023 FOMC)
With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Feds policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal Reserves own forecasts will be one of the most salient issues at tomorrows press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Smith and Farley also discuss the latest economic data, the politics of the Fed, and the looming issue of the U.S. debt ceiling. Follow Colby Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/colbyLsmith Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Timestamps: (00:41) Expectations For The Fed's February FOMC Meeting (09:24) Are Financial Conditions Too Loose? (18:26) "The Fed's Threshold For Pain Is A Lot Higher" (25:48) Forward Guidance (30:55) Curve Ad (32:00) Employment Costs & Other Economic Data (37:09) Will The Fed Hike Again In May (After It Likely Hikes Again in March)? (40:12) New Voting Members on The FOMC (43:26) Will Powell Be In "Attack Mode" Tomorrow? (47:49) The Fed's Balance Sheet & Quantitative Tightening (QT) (51:14) The Debt Ceiling (53:34) The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) FacilityTue, 31 Jan 2023 14:48:58 -0000
Earnings Season Is Strong (So Far) | Sam Burns
Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023. Follow Mill Street Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MillStResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Outlook for 2023 (06:00) Cyclical Stocks Are Outperforming Defensive Stocks (11:37) Stocks vs. Bonds Valuations (17:17) Earnings Growth Outlook for S&P 500 Stocks (20:46) Incentives of Sell-Side Analysts (28:35) Earnings Revisions By Sector (31:30) Permissionless Plug (32:33)China, Gold Miners, and Airlines (37:06) European Stocks (43:35) What Is Sam Most Bearish On? (45:53) The Fed (55:40) Inverted Yield CurveThu, 26 Jan 2023 14:52:44 -0000
The Bear Market Ended Months Ago, Says Master of Turning Points | Milton Berg
Milton Berg is a quiet legend of technical analysis whose work is regularly used by the worlds most accomplished investors. He joins Jack Farley to share his reading of specific patterns in the market that to him are strong bullish indicators. Berg argues that the recession already occurred in 2022 and that the best time to buy stocks is coming out a recession. Berg shares with Farley in-depth analysis of the breadth and volume characteristics of recent price action that make him think that the bear market is over. Berg is particularly constructive on China and gold miners, and in addition he and Farley debate the meaning of the steep yield curve inversion. Milton Berg Advisors is a boutique consulting and research firm that offers investment advisory services exclusively to institutional investors. More info can be found at https://miltonberg.com/. Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Milton Berg's Way Of Analyzing Markets (09:31) A Transition From Inflation To Recession Is Bullish For Stocks (12:13) Comparison To Dot-Com Crash (17:24) "The Market Bottomed In June" (21:12) Bullish On Chinese & U.S. Stocks (29:37) Permissionless Plug (30:39) But What About Bear Market Rallies? (42:58) "I Have Zero Sell Signals" (45:08) But What About The Inverted Yield Curve? (47:44) The Unemployment Rate (56:53) China Stocks and Gold (01:04:44) Milton Berg's Outlook on Treasury Bonds __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 23 Jan 2023 15:23:00 -0000
Dusting Off The Recession Playbook | Tian Yang
The last time Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception, appeared on Forward Guidance in August 2022, he gave viewers a well-timed warning that the commodity supercycle was on hold. Now, he returns to argues that the world is well on its way to a global recession that will provide a hostile environment for risk assets. Yang shares his equity bottom checklist with Jack Farley to argue that equities have much more down to fall, and he explains why he thinks risk-off assets like bonds will perform well. Yang expects a blow-out of credit spreads and he thinks that the U.S. dollar will perform less well against other currencies than it does in a typical recession. Filmed on January 12th, 2023. Follow Variant Perception on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:36) Base Case For 2023 (04:14) Where's The Recession? (08:11) Liquidity (18:25) Housing and Manufacturing Are Weak (24:21) Interest Rates (28:05) Cruve Ad (29:08) China (33:36) Underweight Equities (Asset Allocation Part 1) (43:03) The Checklist For A Market Bottom (47:19) Incredibly Rare Set-up in Gold" (48:43) Overweight Bonds (Asset Allocation Part 2) (55:19) Neutral On Commodities (Asset Allocation Part 3) (01:02:26) The U.S. Dollar (01:05:13) The Most Crowded Trade In Macro Right Now (01:11:22) The VIX in 2023Thu, 19 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000
Transitory Goldilocks Is Here | Darius Dale
Darius Dale of 42 Macro once again joins Jack to share his macro view for 2023. Dale argues that, while inflation and growth are falling, inflation is falling so much faster than growth is falling, and economic resilience is rearing its head in many areas. As a result, it may appear that the so-called soft landing could be achieved this year. At least thats what many asset markets that Dale tracks closely are indicating. This environment is conducive to risk assets rallying and volatility abating - at least in the short-term. However, Dale shares his own view that this current period of economic moderation is likely only a transitory goldilocks that will give way to a recession that begins in the fourth quarter of 2023. Dale also shares his outlook on China, bonds, and Bitcoin. Filmed on January 12, 2023. -- Follow 42 Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAlerts Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAware Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Have The Odds Of A "Soft Landing" Increased? (06:59) Transitory Goldilocks" (13:53) The Fed Is Focused More On Wage Growth & Labor Market Now Than Inflation (20:20) Odds Of The Fed Cutting Rates (27:17) Permissionless Ad (28:17) But Isn't Growth Falling Rapidly? (40:13) Is Inflation Eating Away At Wealth? (44:59) Is Liquidity Turning Up? (53:53) Asset Allocation (01:02:27) "Tons of Upside In China" -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 18 Jan 2023 19:00:00 -0000
Bank of Japan Widow-Makes Once Again | Weston Nakamura
The last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy. At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing nothing. Despite the unprecedented scale of record-setting JGB buying (or, foreign and domestic investor selling pressure), the Bank of Japan delivered a unanimous vote of no change in Yield Curve Control policy for Governor Kuroda's second to last meeting of his historic, and dramatically controversial tenure of radical policy experimentation. Ahead of today's policy release, Weston had been discussing his outlook for a "no-change" BOJ policy outcome, and had positioned for the event against market consensus, using the same framework that he and Jack had discussed at the end of December of market functioning and financial stability to determine policy outcome (as opposed to inflation-combating). In addition to the Bank of Japan and the most intense market pressure they are currently under, Weston also explains what is behind the remarkable strength in the yen as of late, how it is possible for JGBs to yield above the so-called Yield Curve Control upper ceiling, and what's next for the "least predictable" major central bank, as we head into the critical end of Governor Kuroda's era. See Weston and Jack from the previous December 2022 BOJ Day: Bank of Japans Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston NakamuraDec 21, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYR34YbXMvY&t=157s Listen to Weston Nakamura and Emma Muhleman, CFA discuss the Bank of Japan in full detail on Twitter Spaces during live Japan trading hours ahead of the BOJ decision here: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BdGYyNpYAyGX?s=20 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Weston on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __Mon, 16 Jan 2023 23:38:31 -0000
The Soft Landing Blue Pill Is Overpriced | Andy Constan
Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two blue pill scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Constan says he is positioned to fade these two scenarios by being short everything - namely, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Constan explains why he is betting on red pill scenarios of either a severe recession or higher-er for longer-er interest rates. Filmed on January 11, 2022. __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:47) "I'm Short Everything" (08:24) Blue Pill Scenarios (Soft Landing Or Fed Pivot) Are Less Likely Than Market Is Pricing In (15:19) Betting Against Rate Cuts (23:06) Curve ad (24:08) Are Stocks Expensive Relative to Bonds? (30:51) Equity Risk Premium (ERP) (40:36) In China, Cash Is Trash (49:08) Views on Commodities (54:28) Can the Superb Macro Returns of 2022 Be Repeated? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 13 Jan 2023 22:24:47 -0000
The Big Bank Deep Dive | Alex Gray
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 As big banks start to report their earnings, Jack turns to banking specialist Alex Gray for insight. Gray taps her prior experience both as a commercial banking underwriter and as a senior analyst of large cap banking stocks to glean insights from the fourth quarter reports of JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM)., Bank of America ($BAC), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Gray navigates the delicate balance between loan growth and credit quality, evaluates the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserves rapid rate hikes on the profitability and balance sheets of the nations largest money centers. As disclosed in the interview, Alex Gray currently serves as the director of finance for Blockworks. Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) How To Value Bank Stocks (03:10) Bank Profitability When Interest Rates Are At Zero (10:07) How To Measure Credit Losses (14:09) Commercial Lending Is In A New Bull Market (21:17) The Importance of Collateral (26:20) Permissionless Ad (33:55) Current Default Rates Are Low (But Rising) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 12 Jan 2023 18:18:00 -0000
Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? | Jeff Snider & Bob Elliott
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- With U.S. monthly inflation coming in negative, whats in store for the future economy and interest rate path? Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, and Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, discuss. -- Follow Jeff Snider on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Unlimited Funds on Twitter https://twitter.com/UnlimitedFnds Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) December CPI Report (08:45) Is There Monetary Inflation? (11:45) The Labor Market Remains Strong (Or Does It?) (32:37) Personal Income (34:43) Permissionless Plug (35:43) Biblical Levels of Yield Curve Inversion (54:25) Consumer Spending & Bank Lending -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 10 Jan 2023 20:55:00 -0000
Jacob Shapiro on Russia, Ukraine, and China
Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments and geopolitics editor at Lykeion, joins Jack to share his geopolitical outlook for 2023. Jacob tells Jack why he thinks that Russias war again Ukraine will sadly continue for some time, and he explains how the war is impacting global supply chains, commodity prices, and international relations. Jacob also shares with Jack his take on Chinas economy, which is at a crossroads between a slow-motion train wreck of its collapsing real estate sector, and the reflationary tailwinds from the end of its zero-Covid policy. Filmed on January 10, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:43) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (06:07) Economic Consequences of The War (13:35) China and India Are Buying Russian Oil In Bulk (15:42) European Price Cap On Russian Oil (19:47) Who Are Russia's Allies? (22:52) How Might This War End? (31:33) Permissionless Plug (32:33) China (35:34) Will Liquidity Be Restored In China? (49:00) Taiwan & Semiconductors -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 09 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000
The Era of American Stock Dominance Is Over | Kevin Muir
In December 2021, Kevin Muir, veteran trader and author of The Macro Tourist, came on Forward Guidance and made a series of bold predictions all of which came true. Now, with a red carpet rolled out for him, Kevin returns to Forward Guidance to share his predictions for 2023. Kevin argues that U.S. stocks will underperform foreign equities, that 2023 will be far more boring than investors expect, and that deep trouble is brewing in private markets (venture capital, private equity, and private debt). Kevin also contends that the economy might fare better than many anticipate, and that bank stocks will do well. Filmed the afternoon of January 6th, 2023. -- Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muirs newsletter, The Macro Tourist, can be found here: https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Kevins interview on Forward Guidance in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJkEokqqaKM&t=400s -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) The Fed (05:43) When Will Recession Come (If At All)? (13:32) 2023 Will Be More Boring Than People Expect (18:09) The Bond Market Pain Might Continue (25:01) Where Is The Terminal Rate? (29:25) Curve Ad (30:26) The Era of U.S. Equity Outperformance Is Over (47:42) There Will Be Trouble In Private Markets (01:00:54) The Tide Is Out, Who Will Be Left Swimming Naked? (01:08:06) The Banks Will Do Fine (01:13:57) Outlook on Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 06 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000
Cryptos 2023 Health Check | Vance Spencer
Vance Spencer, co-founder of Framework Ventures, a venture firm that invests exclusively in digital assets, joins Jack to look back on cryptos rough 2022 and look forward to what is on the horizon. Spencer shares his framework for valuing digital assets, explains why he thinks the vast majority of crypto projects are unsuitable for this valuation methods, and offers his reasoning for why he is very bullish on Ethereum above all else. Filmed on December 21, 2022. -- Follow Vance Spencer on Twitter https://twitter.com/pythianism Follow Framework Ventures on Twitter https://twitter.com/hiframework Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:36) The Seeds of A Bear Market (10:10) Why Vance Is Skeptical On Solana (12:57) Crypto Health Check in 2023 (16:17) How Does Macro Impact Crypto? (24:53) Permissionless Ad (25:53) Big Tech (27:38) Genesis And The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (32:10) Crypto "Yield" And Its Many Problems (35:59) Bitcoin (41:08) Valuation of Eth (45:24) Contagion Risks Within Crypto (48:25) Tether (50:48) Investment Strategies In A Bear Market (52:33) Crypto Gaming & The Metaverse (59:57) Who Had Accounts At FTX? (01:01:48) Why have prices been rangebound over the past month? (01:03:11) Non-Ethereum Projects That Vance Likes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 05 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000
Nightmare Scenario For The Fed | Felix Jauvin
Felix Jauvin, macro analyst at Reflexivity Research, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on liquidity, the Fed, and inflation. Jauvin argues that the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is removing from the financial system via quantitative tightening (QT) is being sterilized by the draining of the Feds reverse repo facility (RRP) - in other words, the Federal Reserve is removing money with one hand and adding money back with another. Jauvin shares his outlook on assets such as bonds, stocks, commodities, the dollar, and crypto. Filmed on December 20, 2022. -- Follow Felix Jauvin on Twitter https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Liquidity In 2023 (15:30) Reverse Repo & Treasury General Account (TGA) (20:59) What's Going To Break? (30:05) A "Nightmare Scenario" For Powell And The Fed (34:16)Pivot And Yield Curve Control (37:07) Views On Inflation (43:57) Commodities Outlook (48:57) Equities (56:03) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 02 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000
A Masterclass In Central Banking | Professor Jane Knodell
Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and author of "The Second Bank of the United States: Central banker in an era of nation-building" joins the show for a masterclass in financial history. Taking us back to the founding of the First & Second Bank of the United States, Knodell discusses the origins of banking, central banking and everything in between, taking us on a tour from the late 1700's to present day. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) The First Bank In The United States (04:29) The Coinage Act Of 1790 (08:37) The Financing Of The Revolutionary War (14:40) How Successful Was The First Bank? (17:14) The Second Bank of the United States: Central Banker in an Era of Nation-Building (24:50) The Mechanics of "Discounts, Exchange & Treasury Debt" (29:05) The Panic Of 1819 (33:02) The Panic of 1825 & The Role Of "Central" Banking (40:12) Did The Second Bank of the United States Closing In 1836 Have Any Effect On The Panic Of 1837? (46:29) The Panic Of 1907: The J.P. Morgan Bailouts (53:55) The Financial System's Plumbing (57:54) The Financing of WWI (01:02:34) The Great Depression (01:07:47) Can The Federal Reserve Print Money? (01:11:13) Bretton Woods (01:15:35) The Treasury-Fed Accord (01:19:15) The FTX Fallout -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 29 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000
All You Ever Wanted To Know About Interest Rates | DC Analyst
Interest rates are a key measure of the price of money, but as the plural suggests, there is one more than just one interest rate. Today Jack dives deep into the interest rate structure with whiz kid Kemen Linsuain, known commonly as DC Analyst, who knows a thing or two about the many different kinds of risk-free rates that punctuate the financial system. Kemen tells of the Federal Funds rate, which is the nominal overnight rate that the Federal Reserve controls, to other rates within the Feds remit such as the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the reverse repo rate (RRP). Kemen and Jack then discuss overnight interest rates not within the Feds control such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), and then other rates and derivatives such as Treasury bill futures and swap rates. Note: the vast majority of rates discussed in this conversation are short-term rates with minimal amounts of credit risk, and should not be confused with corporate bond yield, mortgage rates, or commercial banking rates. Lastly, Kemen shares his thoughts on crypto, and tells Jack about his latest venture into crypto as a content creator at Gauntlet. -- About Gauntlet: https://gauntlet.network/ DC Analyst blog: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/ Latest chartback from DC Analyst: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-17 Follow Kemen on Twitter https://twitter.com/AnalystDC Follow Gauntlet on Twitter https://twitter.com/gauntletnetwork Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Interest Rate Mayhem in 2022 (14:19) Repo Markets (21:08) Curve Ad (22:14) Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) (37:03) Interest Rate Derivatives Market (41:39) LIBOR to SOFR Transition (50:14) Spread Between EFFR & SOFR (Effective Fed Funds Rate & Secured Overnight Financing Rate) (55:26) Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) and Forward Rate Agreements (FRA) (56:50) Negative Swap Spreads (59:48) Term Premium (01:02:12) Thoughts On The Fed (01:06:53) Crypto & DeFi (01:13:34) Where Did The (Crypto) Yield Come From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 26 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The Fed Will Tighten "As Far As They Can" Into 2023 | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves
Today Jack welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that transitory will die and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high. Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets. -- Follow George Goncalves on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (09:33) The Tightening of Financial Conditions (13:37 Forecasting The Fed Terminal Rate Into 2023 (20:33) Curve Ad (21:36) A Classic Boom/Bust Cycle? (29:12) Lagarde Is Undoubtedly Hawkish (31:26) Should We Listen To The Fed's Forward Guidance? (36:58) The Cycle of Financial Conditions (47:19) Stocks, Bonds & The Wealth Effect (49:54) 2023 Outlook For Risk Asset's (56:37) Analysing The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening (01:03:12) George & Joseph's Final Thoughts & Outlook For 2023 (01:12:00) The Outlook For Bonds Throughout 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 22 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Private Markets To Implode As Fed Hikes to 7% | Bilal Hafeez
Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins todays interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code JACK. Offer ends on January 6th, 2022. Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hives analysis, check out Bilals piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/ -- Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) Macro Outlook For 2023 (05:32) Severe Recession Incoming (10:20) Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023 (22:55) Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain (25:38) Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace (31:16) China (38:15) Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess? (42:08) Bond Market Outlook (49:39) Energy (54:21) Is Europe In A Recession? (55:51) How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates? (57:35) Discount To Macro Hive Prime (01:00:24) The U.S. Dollar (01:09:59) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 20 Dec 2022 23:26:09 -0000
Bank of Japans Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston Nakamura
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and theres no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado. Weston tells Jack that the BOJs decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year. Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022. Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosMon, 19 Dec 2022 13:15:00 -0000
The Technicals Are Bearish | Katie Stockton
Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies and portfolio manager of the $TACK ETF, joins Jack Farley to share her analysis of the charts of stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the first technical analysis interview on Forward Guidance, Stockton explains and incorporates indicators such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Ichimoku clouds, moving averages, and stochastic oscillators. She tells Jack that in the short-run, the technicals remain bearish for the S&P 500, and she also offers her reading on oil, gold, and the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on Friday, December 16, 2022. -- Follow Katie Stockton on Twitter https://twitter.com/StocktonKatie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:23) Key Concepts In Technical Analysis (TA) (05:30) Support And Resistance (11:06) Combining Different Indicators To Draw Conclusions (24:02) Curve Ad (25:08) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explainer (33:02) Outlook on S&P 500 (35:36) Outlook on Oil (44:48) Gold (46:47) Treasury Yields (50:24) Sector Analysis (54:18) Common Mistakes In Technical Analysis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 16 Dec 2022 22:30:00 -0000
Chinas Economic House Of Cards | Kyle Bass & Nick Glinsman
Todays interview is something unlike any other thats ever appeared on Forward Guidance. It concerns China, a country that once was the engine of global economic growth, but now is in the middle of its worst recession in over 20 years. Can Chinas economy emerge stronger than ever? Lets just say that todays guests, Kyle Bass and Nick Glinsman, are not optimistic. Kyle Bass is the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital and Nick Glinsman is the founder of Malmgren Glinsman & Partners. An important disclaimer: a guest today makes serious allegations that are solely his own opinion. Blockworks does not necessarily agree with these claims, some of which are unverified or unverifiable, and in no way endorses them. As always, nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Follow Kyle Bass on Twitter https://twitter.com/Jkylebass Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Kyle Bass 2023 Macro Outlook (04:20) Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices? (13:10) China's Economy (23:00) The Chinese Communist Party (28:46) Why Won't Beijing Reflate? (43:57) Russia and Putin (48:42) Uranium and the Fed (52:19) Outlook on Bonds in 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 12 Dec 2022 22:20:00 -0000
Everything You Need To Know About The Feds Meeting | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, joins Jack to share her views on the upcoming extremely busy week, which sees the release of Novembers inflation (CPI) data on Tuesday and the culmination of the Feds FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, December 12. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:04) Preparing For This Week's Fed Meeting (04:37) The Dot Plot (13:50) What Are The Odds Of A Hidden Pivot? (17:42) The Job Market (24:54) How Hot Will Inflation Be? (30:21) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (40:46) The Housing And Auto Market Is Getting Even Worse (45:40) Recession (48:08) Consumer Spending Is Falling (51:33) Can Services Save Us?Fri, 09 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Felix Zulauf: Credit Meltdown Will Force The Federal Reserve To Backtrack On Tight Money Policy
Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share his market outlook for 2023 and beyond. Zulauf argues that recessions in China and Europe will weaken corporate earnings, and that as the U.S. economy also slows down, pessimistic earnings guidance from companies will quickly catalyze severe stock market declines. However, he thinks that the bear market will likely end in early 2023, because a credit event (likely in China) will force central banks - most notably the Federal Reserve - to stop tightening monetary policy, and that this pivot will arrest the fall in equity prices. Zulauf tells Jack Farley that Chinas growing trade dominance is augering profound geopolitical and economic changes, and he shares his view on sovereign bond yields, cryptocurrencies, and commodity prices. Filmed on December 7, 2022 Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. For more information, go to https://www.felixzulauf.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Profound Geopolitical Change (05:51) Stock Market Outlook (9:31) Potential Credit Meltdown In China (18:06) Curve Sponsor Reading (19:11) China's Stock Market Does Not Represent The Chinese Economy (22:09) Why Is The Euro So Weak? (24:09) The U.S. Dollar (26:57) Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Treasury Bonds (35:27) The Federal Reserve Will Pivot In Early 2023 (39:22) The Final Phase Of The Equity Bear Market (45:12) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 08 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000
David Rubenstein, Billionaire Investor Who Hired Jay Powell, On What Makes A Great Investor
Today Jack speaks to a true titan in the investment business. David Rubenstein is the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm with over $360 Billion in assets under management, and he joins Forward Guidance to share lessons from his latest book, How To Invest: Masters On The Craft, in which he spoke to legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and Jim Simons about the keys to their success. Link to David Rubensteins book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Invest-David-M-Rubenstein/dp/1982190302 Link to David Rubensteins interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nwf_VySYFU&t=601s Link to David Rubensteins interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLE3eRMFUJo&t=17s -- Follow David Rubenstein on Twitter https://twitter.com/DM_Rubenstein Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) What Makes A Great Investor? (04:16) David Rubenstein's Journey Into Private Equity (09:06) Importance Of Getting Involved In On The Ground Floor (11:42) Fundraising (19:22) Inflation (21:05) The Business Cycle (24:22) Venture Capital and Technology Valuations (27:36) Economic Outlook (29:22) How High Will The Federal Reserve Hike Interest Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 05 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Cash Is King In Multi-Year Recessionary Bear Market | Chance Finucane
Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack to discuss his investment outlook at this current point in the business cycle. Finucane argues that the U.S. is at the beginning of a multi-year economic slowdown that will see corporate earnings dwindle materially across many sectors, and that accordingly preservation of capital is top priority. Finucane and Farley discuss the housing and auto market, outlook on fixed-income and the Federal Reserve, as well as individual stock ideas. Filmed on November 21, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Outlooks on Growth and Inflation (02:39) The Housing Market Recession (05:33) The Auto Market (08:05) General Investment Outlook (10:49) MegaCap Tech Stocks (13:19) Banks and Other Financial Stocks (14:15) Fixed-Income Outlook (16:49) Is Sentiment Too Bearish? (19:34) How Much Will Corporate Earnings Grow In 2023 (if at all)? (22:19) Curve Ad (23:21) How High Will The Fed Hike Interest Rates? (27:09) Municipal and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (28:34) Even More Bearish Than Summer 2022 (33:16) Long-Duration Treasurys (34:41) Sectors and Individual Stocks (36:31) Will Companies Be Able to Pass Costs Onto Consumers In 2023? (42:56) Energy (44:32) About Oxbow -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The Car Market Is Crashing | Paul Hodges
To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Having shared his dire warnings about the chemicals market, Paul Hodges, and author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share equally grim tidings about the global automotive industry, which Hodges argues is entering a severe recession. Hodges notes that sales volumes and car prices are falling sharply around the world, and he discusses cyclical as well as secular themes in Asian, European, and American automobile markets. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) The Health Of The Global Car Market (05:08) The U.S. Auto Market (13:49) Car Values Are Falling - What's Next? (24:32) Slowdown in Chinese Auto Market (30:30) Tesla (33:43) Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - When WIll They Become Mainstream? (45:23) Europe's Auto Market (51:23) Investing In Electric and Autonomous Vehicles (01:06:51) China's Relationships with Non-Chinese Automakers (01:10:33) The pH Report As a Research Partner of Forward Guidance (01:14:05) The Chemicals Market Remains Stupendously Bearish -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 29 Nov 2022 21:11:26 -0000
FTX and The Money Noose: Scott Skyrm On The Fall of MF Global
Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global. Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of risk-free trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by yes men, and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global). Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much worse than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jacks reading that FTX likely misused (or at least mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (repo) markets in 2022, as well as the Feds dilemma between price stability and financial stability. Follow Scott on Twitter https://twitter.com/ScottSkyrm Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global? (02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008 (11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds? (20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX (23:29) Cross-Margining (32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades (40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades (43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM (47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate (53:59) The Fed's Dilemma (58:51) The Repo Market in 2022 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 28 Nov 2022 20:30:00 -0000
CeFi Crypto Contagion Is Just Getting Started, Says Analyst Who Predicted FTX's Fall
James Block, author at Dirty Bubble Media, joins Jack to explain the knock-on effects of the demise of the crypto exchange FTX. James is an amateur crypto researcher who saw in FTX and Alameda Research what many crypto professionals missed: hidden leverage, inflated assets, and in some cases, outright fraud. He now shares his view on potential contagion to Gemini, Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), BlockFi, and other firms in the crypto ecosystem. James writings at Dirty Bubble Media can be found here: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/ James piece on Alameda Research: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent James piece on Digital Currency Group (DCG): https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/digital-currency-grift __ Follow James on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburg Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:45)"Is Alameda Research Insolvent?" (03:02) Red Flags With Alameda & Celsius (12:35) Binance (15:01) Crypto Contagion (19:13) Curve Ad (20:16) Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Genesis (35:16) Where Did Crypto Yield Come From? (40:00) Was The $8 Billion Ever At FTX To Begin With? (45:11) What's The Next Shoe To Drop? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 24 Nov 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Liquidity In Crypto Is Declining | Scott Freeman
Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Frieds (SBF) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Scott Freeman's Background (04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015 (09:06) Crypto in 2020 (12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022 (15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto (19:23) Where Does Yield Come From? (20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising? (22:07) Algorand Ad (23:52) Alameda & FTX (29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried (34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges (39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es) (40:13) General Market Outlook (42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) (49:07)Is There A Silver Lining? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 21 Nov 2022 14:30:00 -0000
Learning From Market Tremors | Hari Krishnan
Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline. Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Hari Krishnans book, Market Tremors: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:24) Dominant Agents" In Finance (04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful? (13:26) The Shadow Banking System (17:28)The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks (19:12) Curve Ad (25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative? (27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX (38:56) Leverage Within Crypto (42:45)Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners (44:36) Volatility In 2022 (58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market (01:04:27) The Role Of Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 17 Nov 2022 14:30:00 -0000
Joseph Wang & William White: Mammoth Interest Rate Hikes Are Causing Trouble In Sovereign Debt
Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve. They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the debt trap, and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability. William Whites work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/ Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Academic papers referenced: "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8 "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling: https://rb.gy/robwk2 -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Looking Back At 2022 (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error" (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models? (25:25) Algorand Ad (27:09)If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do? (40:43) The Debt Trap (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake? (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 14 Nov 2022 13:45:00 -0000
Forced Retirement Selling May Disrupt Santa Rally | Zed Francis
Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/ Convexitas piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/ Convexitas piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Financialization Of Everything (10:27) Private Markets (17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained (19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense (26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail (38:41) Stocks and Volatility (41:53) "Ignore The VIX" (45:19) Tail Risk (50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks? (01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market (01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen (01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts (01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays (01:26:00) Basis Risk __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 10 Nov 2022 19:16:00 -0000
Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone
Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists. McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so. NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTXs distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX. Follow Mike McGlone on Twitter https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:15) We're Going Down" (05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto (07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil (11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked? (22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand? (26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic? (29:42) Forward Curve In Oil (38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession (47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil? (50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation (55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 09 Nov 2022 22:42:11 -0000
Theres Just Not Enough Energy | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins
Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g -- Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com or jack@blockworks.co -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosTue, 08 Nov 2022 23:00:00 -0000
Everything You Need To Know About Crypto's FTX-Driven Downturn | Matt Fiebach
In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges. Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day, and FTXs rumored acquisition by Binance, a digital asset behemoth led by Chengpeng Zhao (CZ) that, should the acquisition close, would become the undisputed king of all crypto exchange. Matt and Farley consider financial contagion risk within crypto as well as in the broader traditional finance (tradfi) world. __ Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Matt Fiebach on Twitter https://twitter.com/MattFiebach Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:54)Overview of FTX's Problems (02:49) Alameda Research's Balance Sheet (09:09) FTX As A Big Blue-Chip Player In Crypto (13:16) Possible Outcomes (16:31) Was FTX Investing Customer Assets? (20:25) Risk Of Contagion (27:48) Matt Fiebach's Background (30:42) About Blockworks Research (31:49) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 07 Nov 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The Economy Is Slowing Much Faster Than The Fed Thinks | Peter Tchir
In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserves models indicate. Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewing geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. will likely continue to weigh upon financial markets, and he shares his insights on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe. -- Follow Peter Tchir on Twitter https://twitter.com/TFMkts Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) "I Would Disagree With Powell" On The U.S. Economy (06:03) "Credit Bubbles Only Happen With Safe Assets" (08:17) Layoffs In Big Tech (12:17) This Will Be A Deep And Lasting Recession (14:31) The Semiconductor Industry (20:34) China (33:52) Energy (36:56)) Regulation of Fossil Fuels (40:41) When Will The Drawdown of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Stop? (44:27) Will Europe's Energy Problems Cause A Recession? (48:26) The Strong Dollar Is Destabalizing The Global Financial System (59:30) The Increasing Political Pressure On The Federal Reserve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 04 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Chemicals Market Is Bearish Stupendously Bearish | Paul Hodges
To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand will slow rapidly around the globe. After reviewing how and why the chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy, Hodges tells Jack Farley how the collapse in chemical prices is a harbinger for a severe global recession. Unrelenting high energy prices, which are a key input to chemical production, are making the chemical refining business even more challenging. Hodges and Farley also discuss the future of inflation and how it is affected by central banks, geopolitics, and demographics. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:51) Chemicals Market Is Indicating The Recession Will Be Deep (14:03) The Mood Is Grim" In The Chemicals Business (19:21) Demographics Are Not Helping! (23:25) The Yield Curve Is Not The Be-All End-All (32:35) Chemical Prices Are Collapsing (40:04) Has Inflation Peaked? (44:44) In A Recession, Earnings Go Down (46:19) The Fed Put Is No More (52:51) A Food Crisis Is Brewing (55:46) Oil and Natural Gas (01:03:31) How Will Europe Handle This Winter? (01:11:17) There Is Considerable Downside Risk" (01:14:42) Discount To pH Report, Paul Hodges' Research Service -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 03 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Jim Bianco & Joseph Wang on November Fed Meeting: Much Higher For Much Longer!
Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:42) General Thoughts on The November FOMC Meeting (04:48) New Sentence On Monetary Policy Acting With A Leg (12:57) Strong Labor Market (19:44) Why Should The Fed Not Hike By 75 Basis Points in December? (23:29) Powell's Yield Curve Is About To Invert (31:05)Is A Soft Landing Still Possible? (43:38) A Treasury Buyback Program Is NOT Coming to Rescue The Bond Market (At Least In 2022) (51:42) A Financial Accident Is Getting More And More Likely __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 01 Nov 2022 20:41:53 -0000
Joseph Wang & Nick Timiraos: What You Need To Know For The November Fed Meeting
With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Feds job even harder. Timiraos Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd. ______ Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ______ Joseph Wangs book, Central Banking 101: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747 Nick Timiraos book, Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic And Prevented Economic Disaster: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/ Nick Timiraos article: Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates Coming Path: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181 Nick Timiraos article: Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614 Josephs Wang piece, The Money Still Flows: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/ Joseph Wangs piece on Treasury Buybacks (Quantitative Buybacks): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/ ______ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ ______ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting (11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong (19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet (28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak" (31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback (31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target? (46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates? (49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell (56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet? Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ______Mon, 31 Oct 2022 16:53:23 -0000
Inflation Will Run Hot For The Rest Of The Decade, Says Vincent Deluard
Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration. Deluard proposes a holy Trinity portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary (17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory (27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression (39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly (46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks? (51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep? (57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF) (01:02:51) Energy (01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market (01:14:44) Brazil and Gold (01:16:40) Favorite Books Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ___Fri, 28 Oct 2022 17:23:00 -0000
IMPORTANT: Announcing Blockworks Latest Podcast, 0xResearch
Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed pivot might impact asset prices. Filmed on October 26, 2022. Follow Sam Martin on Twitter https://twitter.com/swmartin19 Follow Dan Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/smyyguy Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Sign up for the Research daily newsletter here: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily-debrief-by-blockworks-research/ -- Timestamps; (00:00) Intro (00:25) Macro and Crypto (03:10) Navigating A Crypto Bear Market (10:48) Ethereum Supply Curve (28:18) About The 0xResearch Podcast (30:14) Zero Knowledge Roll-ups (36:37) Ethereum & Cosmos (44:55) Bitcoin (52:30) Jack Answers Macro QuestionsFri, 28 Oct 2022 16:30:00 -0000
The European Central Bank Goes On The Offensive | Daniel Neilson (LIVE)
Daniel Neilson, economist and author of Minksy and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Banks efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade. Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks. Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollar Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj _ Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. _ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 27 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Lyn Alden: The Bursting Of The Sovereign Bond Bubble
In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures. 1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing pressures for central banks to reliquify their beleaguered bond markets. Filmed on October 20th, 2022. Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (19:54) What Will Cause The Fed To Pivot? (26:21) The Treasury Market Is Not In Full Panic Mode Yet (33:45) Recession Risk (35:24) Asset Allocation (38:26) The Dollar and Emerging Markets (45:45) Energy (53:49) When Will The Dollar Stop Rising? (01:01:54) The Long-Term Debt Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 24 Oct 2022 18:06:00 -0000
The Fed Wont Rescue The Housing Market | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a biblical quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booths description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernankes Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) The Housing Recession (09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck (19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic? (23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex (24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking (26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue (31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022" (43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market? (48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing (51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature" (53:57)Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move? (58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S. -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 20 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Fed Blundered In 2008 And Its Blundering Now | Richard Field
Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Feds current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake. -- Follow Richard Field on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tyillc Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/igyzsj___ -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off:https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Algorand Promotion (00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize (04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake? (14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (28:02) Algorand Promotion (29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake? (37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field (52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation" (54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It? (57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market? (01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent? (01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008" (01:37:34) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 18 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Oil Will Dethrone The Fed (Heres Why) | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins
Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kuppy Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Feds job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment. Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. -- Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) KEDM promotion (00:51) Intro (01:07) Overall Macro Thesis (11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (16:06) The Bull Case For Oil (22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting (30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong" (35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment (40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil (55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season (1:02:41) A Market Crash (1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM) (1:11:19) KEDM promotion (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 17 Oct 2022 16:00:00 -0000
Banks Are Finally Making Money Again | Chris Whalen
Its banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking(taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans. That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalens unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, youll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14. -- Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://rb.gy/enkm0e Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Bittrex Ad (00:10) Intro (00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks (03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over" (07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend) (09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning (12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be? (16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business (21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (23:18) Bittrex Ad (23:49) Winter For Investment Banking (27:48) The Biggest Risks (30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat (35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses? (47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America (55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession? (58:09) FinTech (59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS) (01:01:51) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 13 Oct 2022 13:00:00 -0000
George Noble: A 20-50% Market Crash Is Coming
Filmed on October 11, 2022. When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented return free risk and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact that he would be shocked if the S&P 500 werent under 3000 within 3 months (as of time of recording on October 11, 2022, the S&P 500 stood at 3850). __ George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) intro (03:30) U.K. Gilt Crisis (16:20) The Labor Market (20:16) Energy and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:52) The Bull Market In Narratives Is Over (27:20) Just How Bearish Are You, George?' (30:51) The Bull Case (34:07) The Bond Market Is Wrong (39:02) Will A Recession Cause The Fed To Come To The Rescue? (47:03) Cash Is King (50:33) Bad News Is Bad News (58:51)When Will The Market Bottom? (01:09:28) Frogs In The Pot -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 10 Oct 2022 14:00:00 -0000
The Bond Market Is Already Broken - Stocks and Housing Are Next | Harley Bassman & Joseph Wang
Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jacks view, have predicted and understood this years sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve. Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration. Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022. -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at:http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/q0eztp Follow Harley Bassman on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/8a1rs4 Follow Simplify on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/pavfzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wangs writings can be found athttps://rb.gy/oocxuzand Bassmans latest commentary as The Convexity Maven can be found here:https://rb.gy/xbibuj. -- Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit:https://rb.gy/uxefzo Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (01:00) Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over? (11:57) Risks in The Stock Market (13:53) When Will Powell Pivot? (18:45) The Housing Market Is Already Broken (20:37) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:08) Bittrex Ad (28:42) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:45) How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off (34:39) Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds (40:31) The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market (48:12) If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do? (52:33) Questions From The Audience (55:29) Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves (59:05) Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market (1:02:38) Will Commercial Banks Lose Money? (1:04:21) Reverse Repo Facility (1:05:07) Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg? (1:08:17) How High Will The Fed Hike To? (1:09:31) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 06 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Learning From the Most Ruthless Robber Baron (Jay Gould) | Greg Steinmetz
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit Greg Steinmetz, investor and financial writer, joins Jack to share insights from his new book,American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Streets Biggest Fortune. Steinmetz maps the financial skullduggery of Jay Gould, an infamous robber baron and investor whose market manipulations left an indelible mark on finance. Steinmetz tells Jack about Goulds unscrupulous schemes in railroad stocks and gold, which destabilized the financial system and made him one of the most hated man in America. Invoking modern-day analogies such as Elon Musk and meme stocks, Steinmetz evaluates the legacy of Americas most daring and ruthless financier, and offers his view on what modern-day investors can learn from Goulds life. -- Follow Greg Steinmetz on Twitter Follow Jack Farley on Twitter Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter Follow Blockworks on Twitter Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Chapter: Why Jay Gould? (04:05) Gould's Greatest Misdeeds (07:10) Chapter: Cornering The Gold Market (14:18) Fragility of The Banking System During "Free Banking" Era (16:56) Gould's "Deposit Trick" (20:02) Tricks in the Gilded Age vs. Tricks in 2022 (24:50) Jay Gould and the Media (27:29) Why Was Gould So Hated? (29:13) "Don't Fight the Fed" (33:48) The Railroad Business in the 19th Century (37:03) Investor Psychology (41:38) Lessons Learned From Jay Gould (45:01) Why Are There So Many Structurally Unprofitable Companies? (46:48) Gould and Valuation (49:59) Final Lessons From Gould's Legacy (52:46) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 03 Oct 2022 13:00:00 -0000
Liquidity Spiral In The Bond Market Is Causing "Tremendous Stress" | Jim Bianco
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research LLC, joins Jack Farley to explain how the meltdown in the British bond (gilt) market, which occurred on Wednesday, September 28th, is exposing serious cracks in the plumbing of the financial system. Bianco argues that the Bank of Englands injection of liquidity was necessary in order to prevent the failure of a major institution. Bianco tells Farley that the Federal Reserve is not close to pivoting to a looser policy because the labor market remains strong. Bianco breaks down key bond market concepts, such as convexity and duration, explains why we are likely already in a recession, and argues that the work-from-home trend is here to stay. Filmed on Thursday, September 29th. -- Follow Jim Bianco Follow Jack Farley Follow Forward Guidance Follow Blockworks Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at:https://bit.ly/3M1qNIU -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Chaos In the U.K. Government Bond ("Gilt") Market (08:53) What's Next To Break? (15:41) What Can Bring Inflation Down (Other Than A Global Recession)? (19:18) The Stress On Banks Is Tremendous" (33:46) Are Bonds Attractive At These Levels? (36:56) Bianco's Outlook on Stocks (38:47) Im Going To Channel My Inner Zoltan Pozsar Here" (51:05) Why Working From Home Is A Permanent Trend (57:09) Closing Thoughts On The Labor Market and The Fed (1:02:14) Asset Allocation in Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto (1:04:49) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 29 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Oil Will Trade Flat To Down Until Biden Backs Down & China Re-Opens | Rory Johnston
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ Rory Johnston, investor at Price street and author of Commodity Context, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the price of oil, the commodity at the heart of the turmoil in financial markets and the global economy. Johnston explains why he thinks oil will trade flat to down in the short-term as he notes that Chinas zero-covid policy has sharply curtailed oil demand but that may change in 2023.He argues that the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the U.S. stockpile of emergency oil reserves, has drastically changed the supply dynamics and has likely depressed the price. Johnston also shares with Farley his views on other important drivers of oil market such as the proposed price cap, sanctions on Russian oil, and the response function from U.S. shale oil producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). NOTE: This interview was filmed on September 23rd, a day where the price of oil fell by as much as 7%. -- Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Why Is Oil Crashing? (05:41) Demand Destruction & Recession Risk (12:46) Is The Backwardation In Oil (16:44) Biden's Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (27:21) Price Cap On Russian Oil (36:18) The Gasoline Crisis (39:56) Coal (42:53) Volatility and Illiquidity In Oil Markets (46:57) European Electricity Prices (50:17) Natural Gas Unit Economics (54:02) The Mechanics Of A Price Cap on Russian Oil (1:02:18) U.S. Shale (1:11:49) Is Oil Going To Go Up? (1:14:21) How Would A Recession Impact The Price Of Oil? (1:16:35) About Commodity Context (1:18:43) Closing Thoughts On Twitter Sentiment (1:20:57) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 26 Sep 2022 12:33:00 -0000
What Will Break First? | Joseph Wang & Peter Crane
With the Fed hiking interest rates rapidly in order to fight inflation, cash is finally earning its highest yield since before the Great Financial Crisis. Peter Crane, President of Crane Data, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, join Jack to discuss how the growing attractiveness of cash might cause markets to break as investors pull capital out of risk assets and deploy it in cash and money market funds, which harvest yields on cash by investing them in ultra-short duration loans to extremely safe counterparties, primarily the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on September 22, 2022. -- Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit:https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Follow Peter Crane on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/cranedata Follow Joseph Wang on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:10) Reflecting On the Fed's September FOMC Meeting (04:48) What Is A Money Market Fund? (14:37) What Will Break? (18:41) Maturity & Composition (25:31) Why Are There No Inflows Into Money Market Funds? (27:37) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (31:316) Who Invests In Money Market Funds? (39:19) Offshore Dollar Money Market Funds (43:03) New SEC Regulation on Money Market Funds ("Swing Pricing") (51:45) What Part of The Financial System Will Crack First? (1:05:12) How Bad Is Treasury Liquidity? (1:06:33) Pete Crane on Stablecoins (1:10:55) Joseph Wang On Sales of Mortgage-Backed Securities (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 22 Sep 2022 13:01:43 -0000
"I'm Surprised The Market's Not Down More" | Aswath Damodaran
When trying to find a culprit for the bear market in stocks this year, investors often point to the surging yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. But thats only part of the story. Today Jack is lucky to speak to Dr. Aswath Damodaran, professor of valuation and corporate finance at NYU Stern School of Business, who is a pioneer in the field of valuation. Damodaran explains how the intrinsic value of a stocks is its future cash flows discounted back to the present with a discount rate, which is the sum of a risk-free rate on a Treasury bond and an equity risk premium. Damodaran notes that, in addition to risk-free rates surging higher, equity risk premia have expanded significantly. Damodaran also shares his views on inflation, the Federal Reserve, as well as currencies and crypto. Farley aFilmed on September 9, 2022. Data sets can be found on Aswath Damodarans website: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ Lectures and presentations can be found on Aswath Damodarans YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation -- Follow Aswath Damodaran on Twitter https://twitter.com/AswathDamodaran Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The "Sleep Test" (03:40) Inflation's Impact on Equity Valuations (19:43) Equity Duration (40:41) Cost of Capital for Individual Companies (44:17) Commodity & Energy Stocks (52:06) How Liquidity Increases Asset Values (59:53) Crypto, Currencies, and Commodities: Why They Are Impossible To Truly Value (1:11:29) Closing Thoughts On Overconfidence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 20 Sep 2022 19:16:34 -0000
The Sovereign Debt Crisis Is Coming | Brent Johnson
Why has the U.S. dollar exploded higher this year against other currencies, and what does its rise mean for the global economy?Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and outspoken dollar bull, joins Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast, to share his thoughts on what the strength of the greenback indicates about inflation, central banks, and growth rates. Johnson argues that a sovereign debt crisis for China and other emerging markets is within the cards. Filmed on September 14, 2022, on the second day of the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit. Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on Twitter https://twitter.com/BlockworksDASMon, 19 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Bear Market Has Only Just Begun | Ted Oakley
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack Farley to argue that asset prices remain well above their fair value, and that the drawdowns investors have seen in 2022 are likely not over. Oakley shares his outlook on inflation, the business cycle, and the Federal Reserve, and he outlines where he is finding value and safety for his investors in this turbulent macro environment. Filmed on September 6, 2022. -- Follow Oxbow Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/Oxbow_Advisors Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:38) Why Stocks Remain Overvalued (11:04) Why A Deep Recession Is Imminent (16:02) Energy (20:52) Fixed Income (28:14) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation and Interest Rates (32:32) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (41:44) Contrarian View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 15 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Jack to argue that European energy inflation will not, as many believe, cause an economic crisis. Instead, Dillian contends that, no matter the long-term consequences, governments will find solutions to the energy shortage such as price caps on commodity prices, which Dillian says will crush speculators. Dillian shares his framework for evaluating investor sentiment in order to discern the mood of the market and identify ideal turning points to take on contrarian positions. Filmed on September 8, 2022. -- Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Measuring Sentiment via Twitter (04:08) Why Jared Thinks Europe Can Handle Its Energy Situation (06:08) "Speculators Will Get Crushed" (08:08) The Low Cost Basis Fallacy (14:43) Natural Gas (16:30) Price Caps In Energy May Be Coming (21:07) Why Jared Was Bullish on Oil in early 2021 (25:30) The Bubble In Macro Doom (27:12) Central Banks Can't Print Oil (31:43) Outlook on Housing & Stocks (36:22) Jared Dillian As Head Of The Federal Reserve (40:06) "Why Are You Not More Bearish?" (48:25) The Dollar (56:22) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation (58:40) Jared's Book & Concert -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 13 Sep 2022 18:00:00 -0000
False Dawn: Why The Rally Is Over | Andy Constan & Joseph Wang
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Today Jack welcomes Andy Constan, macro investor and publisher of The Damped Spring Report, and Joseph Wang, former senior Fed trader and author of Fedguy.com, to discuss how the Feds reduction of its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting market liquidity and future returns. Constan argues that favorable market conditions that allowed risk assets to rise during the summer are no longer present, and that this false dawn is over. Wang argues that QT will drain the banking system of reserves and the Fed may have to plug leaks in the financial plumbing. Filmed on September 7, 2022. -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Markets (10:38) Equity & Bond Market Flows Over The Past Few Months (15:46) Volatility (Vol) Targeting (24:18) Equity Risk Premium Model (32:13) The "False Dawn" In Asset Prices (38:28) Joseph Wang on Treasury Issuance (43:58) Joseph on "The Reserve Gap" (53:50) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:11) Andy Constan's Outlook on Bonds (1:02:02) How Far Can The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 12 Sep 2022 10:58:00 -0000
The Rise of "Legal Fraud" | Bethany McLean
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack interviews prolific author and journalist, Bethany McLean. McLean's known most prominently for her 2003 book, The Smartest Guys in The Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron. With her coverage of financial scandals in the early 2000s, no one is better equipped for today's discussion about fraud, loopholes, and more. McLean interprets the seismic disruptions in the housing and energy market through her prior work on mortgage-securitizing giant Fannie Mae and on the American shale revolution. McLean argues that financial crimes always require the complicity of the victim, and contends that anyone who thinks they can predict the energy markets or inflation is sorely mistaken. -- Follow Bethany McLean on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bethanymac12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Was The Enron Fraud Allowed To Happen? (12:18) The Rise of Legal Fraud (19:07) Dotcom Bubble 2.0 and Private Equity (23:53) The Housing, Mortgage, and Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Markets (31:55) Inflation And The (Reverse) Wealth Effect (34:34) The Energy Crisis (46:00) Green Energy (48:20) McLean's New Book (49:26) Fictitious Billionaires And Other Hangovers From The 2020 Money Printing Bonanza -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 08 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Eurodollar Market Is Dead, Says Godfather of Financial Derivatives | Dr. Richard Sandor
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Every day, trillions of dollars worth of interest rate derivatives are traded back and forth. And yet despite its stunning size today, 50 years ago the interest rate derivative complex did not exist at all. Today Jack interviews Dr. Richard Sandor, chairman and CEO of the American Financial Exchange (AFX), who is known as the father of financial futures because he created the worlds first interest rate and bond futures in the 1970s. Sandor explains how the relentless inflation of the 1970s caused wild swings in interest rates that jeopardized financial stability, and how the financial futures he created helped tame (or at the very least, transfer) these risks. Sandor argues that the London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR) to which many interest rate futures (often called eurodollar futures) are still pegged has been discredited by the schemes of banks to manipulate it (see link below on LIBOR scandal). Sandor shares his vision for the forthcoming LIBOR replacement in June 2023, and tells Jack about his companys benchmark, AMERIBOR. -- Article on LIBOR scandal: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor-scandal.asp More info on Dr. Richard Sandor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_L._Sandor Follow Dr. Richard Sandor on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drrichardsandor Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Creating The World's First Interest Rate Future (18:16) Creating A Two-Sided Market (24:10) Paul Volcker's Role In Creating Interest Rate Volatility (27:00) Eurodollars: "LIBOR Is Dead, The Emperor Has No Clothes" (35:21) Replacements for LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) (47:44) Carbon Futures -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 05 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Plumbing Of Global Finance Is Clogged | Joseph Wang & Daniel Neilson
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- With the summer rally in risk assets two weeks in the rear view mirror, Jack welcomes two experts on the plumbing of the monetary system, former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Daniel Neilson, economist and author of Minsky and writer of the Soon Parted newsletter. Neilson and Wang exchange views on just how high the Federal Reserve will hike rates in order to tame inflation, with Wang calling Fed chair Powells speech at Jackson Hole a great performance. Neilson shares insights on the changing size and composition of the European Central Banks balance sheet, and then he proceeds to teach Jack about what the relative levels of various repo rates indicates about the supply and demand for Treasury collateral. Lastly, Neilson shares his views on government crackdown of crypto mixer Tornado Cash. Daniel H. Neilson is the principal of Neilson Macro Advisors and author of Minsky from Polity Books, and his newsletter is called Soon Parted. Filmed on August 31, 2022. -- Link to Daniel Neilsons piece on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB): https://www.soonparted.co/p/defrag Link to Daniel Neilsons piece on Tornado Cash: https://www.soonparted.co/p/tornado-cash Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Daniel Neilsons writings can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Analysis of Powell's Remarks at Jackson Hole (09:54) Inflation Expectations (17:17) Just How Far Behind The Curve Is The European Central Bank (ECB)? (29:38) Plumbing Of The Repo System (Warning: Very Advanced) (49:37) Tornado Cash -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 01 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Fed Doesnt Have What It Takes To Fight Inflation | Joseph Wang & Mish Shedlock
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit (sale ends Sunday): https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powells remarks at Jackson Hole. Jack welcomes former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Michael Mish Shedlock, economic blogger and investment advisor, to analyze the twin threats of inflation and recession, and the challenges investors and the Federal Reserve face as they try to navigate both. Shedlock argues that the economy is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve will likely overtighten which could kill the stock market. Wang argues that the risk is that the Federal Reserve is too loose, and notes that an excerpt from the July FOMC minutes which Wang saw as cowardly caused Wang to be more open to the view that Powell will cave to dovish political pressure. In his own words, this is the Fed of Arthur Burns.NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powells remarks at Jackson Hole. -- Follow Mish Shedlock on Twitter https://twitter.com/MishGEA Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wangs work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Mish Shedlocks writings can be found here: https://mishtalk.com/ Mishs article on housing: https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-crash-accelerates-sales-down-12-6-percent-in-july July FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220727.pdf -- (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Are We In A Recession Already? (05:48) Housing (15:00) Stagflation (19:58)The Stock Market (21:12) The Wang Pivot (29:27) The Commercial Banking System (35:16) Asset Allocation (36:51) Gold (39:53) The Pension Crisis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 29 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Convertible Bonds: The Everything Asset Class | Paul Latronica
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by Paul Latronica to discuss convertible bonds as an asset class, and more. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:08) What Are Convertible Bonds? (05:00) An Example (19:56) Correlation Between Convertible Bonds and Equity (33:13) Current Valuations (50:44) Finding Alpha In Convertible Bonds (55:20) Current Outlook (1:01:51) Avoiding Pitfalls (1:05:24) Greatest Risk For Convertible Bonds (1:09:33) The Federal Reserve (1:17:32) Most Frequent Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 25 Aug 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The Global Shipping Crisis Is Not Over | Sal Mercogliano
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and shipping expert, who discusses the current global shipping crisis and its trajectory for the future. -- Subscribe to Sal Mercogliano's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/WhatisGoingonWithShippingwSalMercogliano Follow Sal Mercogliano on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Shipping As The Ultimate Driver Of Inflation (15:15) Consolidation In The Shipping Industry (22:11) Are There Enough Ships? (Answer: Yes) (23:38) Emission Reduction Goals In Shipping As A Headwind To New Supply (29:11) Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) (33:30) Learning From History (38:28) Recession's Impact on Shipping Rates (44:50) How Profitable Is Shipping Now? (47:11) Non-Owner Operators (52:26) Cruise Lines (1:00:50) Futures On Freight Rates? (1:03:08) Individual Stocks -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 22 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Feds Ticking Time Bomb Is About To Explode | Joseph Wang & Chris Whalen
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In September, the Federal Reserve is set to remove even more liquidity from markets by taking its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program to the next level. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and veteran banker Chris Whalen, join Jack to explain how this additional wave of monetary tightening will send shockwaves through markets, particularly the two assets that comprise the Feds balance sheet: U.S. Treasuries and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Joseph argues that the U.S. Treasury will likely enact a buyback program of its longer-duration securities in order to dampen QTs volatility, and Whalen contends that if the Federal Reserve sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (as opposed to merely letting them mature), armageddon will ensue. Filmed on August 17, 2022. -- Read Joseph Wangs latest piece, The Marginal Buyer: https://fedguy.com/the-marginal-buyer/ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wangs work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Chris Whalens work can be found here: rcwhalen.com -- (00:00) Introduction (01:32) The Effect of Quantitative Tightening (QT) On Commercial Banks (21:00) Vulnerabilities in The Treasury Market (25:15) The Conundrum in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (32:30) The Fed's Banking "Stress Test" (43:43) Swelling Reverse Repo Facility (48:22) The Fed's Giant Mortgage Problem (59:53) How Far Will The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? (1:02:03) Why Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Not Going Down During QT? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 18 Aug 2022 20:00:00 -0000
Why Risk Appetite Is Back | Alfonso Peccatiello, Michael Kantrowitz, Andy Constan & Jack Farley
This is a recording of a Twitter spaces in which Jack Farley exchanges macro views with Alfonso Peccatiello, in a preview to their conversation at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in September 2022, which will feature Mike Green, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Jurrien Timmer. This recording also featured Andy Constan and Michael Kantrowitz. -- Use code MACRO200 to get discounted tickets to the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/?gclid=CjwKCAjwo_KXBhAaEiwA2RZ8hIgyUQTvJmP-g0qAclP5WXFdpLdZSLkarlMTWE9_Po341_j_x5FBBBoCojkQAvD_BwE -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 18 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Liquidity Has Dried Up, Says $100 Billion Investor | Jeffrey Sherman
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Jeffrey Sherman, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, joins Jack to discuss how fixed income markets are handling a slowing economy and the Federals Reserves withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Sherman breaks down how bond values over 2022 have dropped as credit spreads have widened and interest rates have risen. Sherman shares his outlook on the corporate bonds, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Sherman is circumspect after a strong two-month rally but thinks at this stage there is value to be found in agency & non-agency MBS as well as long-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on August 10, 2022. -- Follow The Sherman Show on Twitter https://twitter.com/ShermanShowPod Follow DoubleLine Capital on Twitter https://twitter.com/DLineCap Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:02) Are We In A Recession? (14:01 )The Inverted Yield Curve (22:25) Liquidity (33:09) The "End" Of Forward Guidance (41:17) Outlook on Long-Term Treasury Yields (46:55) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 15 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Fed Is Not In Control Of The Eurodollar System | Hugh Hendry
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Hugh Hendry, macro investor and former chief investment officer of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Jack Farley to make the case that central banks are not in control of the global monetary order. Hendry argues that an inverted yield curve is showing that the Federal Reserve is making a severe policy error. He insists that the rises in consumer prices is not inflation as he defines it because they are not due to the extending of credit by commercial banks. Hendry passionately exhorts the Chinese ruling class to empower the Chinese consumer and allow the Chinese Yuan (RenMinBi) to strengthen to what Hendry thinks is its true market value. Hendry tells Farley he expects commodity prices to remain high due to bad energy policy and he thinks that portfolio managers who are fueling the recent rally in risk assets are making a mistake. Filmed on August 4th, 2022. -- Follow Hugh Hendry on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (09:56) Why Rising Consumer Prices Is Not Inflation (11:06) The Energy Crisis (19:13) Paul Volcker (21:56) China and the Global "Glut of Saving" (28:09) The Eurodollar System (34:08) Is The Fed Effective (39:31) Did the Fed save the world in 2020 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 11 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Real GDP Lending on Blockchain Could Be A Gamechanger | Bill Wolf
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/si Bill Wolf, Chief Investment Officer at TrustToken/TrustLabs joins Jack Farley to talk about all things blockchain: his journey into this new form of currency, real GDP loans, and stablecoins. Bill and Jack talk about TrustToken and the services its business offers in the trading and lending space. What red flags does TrustToken find to help other firms who are looking to invest or take out loans? While struggling lenders in the CeFi space had no choice but to declare bankruptcy, Bill tells Jack that his company TrustToken has never had a single default on its platform. Watch to find out how his company avoided risks that have taken many other companies out. Filmed the afternoon of August 2, 2022. Be on the lookout for The Investors Guide to TrueFi Capital Markets, coming out soon on Blockworks.co. -- Follow TrustToken on Twitter https://twitter.com/TrustToken Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Bill's Journey into Blockchain (07:58) Real GDP Loans on Blockchain (17:05) Stablecoins (23:26) Tether (26:08) TrustToken's Structure (38:05) Lending Terms (47:34) Interest Rate Risks (49:13) Fee Structure (53:15) Definition Of A Credit Loss (57:25) Lender Protections (59:45) Correlation Risk (1:08:47) "We're All Going To Pay For The Sins of Others" (1:10:24) The Future Of Blockchain Lending (1:13:57) The Fed -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 09 Aug 2022 13:00:00 -0000
Real Estate Market Will Stay "Savagely Unhealthy" For A Long Time | Logan Mohtashami
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/sign-up -- Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire joins Jack Farley to talk all things housing: how has the housing market changed since 2019 and what will happen to homes as we approach a recession? Logan and Jack talk about inventory and rates in the housing market, as well as the challenges homebuyers may have entering this space. Does Logan think we will be able to get out this unhealthy real estate market soon? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the afternoon of August 1, 2022. -- Follow Logan Motashimi on Twitter https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashami Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) The Current Health of the Real Estate Market (12:37) Inventory (16:30) Building Homes in the Early 2000's (22:06) Rates (31:51) Signs of a Recession (48:44) Challenges in the Housing Market (55:38) The State of Housing (1:04:16) Effects of a Housing Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 04 Aug 2022 20:30:00 -0000
Pelosis Visit To Taiwan Has Angered China | Jacob Shapiro
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Jack Farley for an impromptu bonus episode to cover how tensions in the South Pacific are rapidly ratcheting up. Shapiro explains the potential economic and geopolitical consequences of ongoing conflict between China and Taiwan, and he and Jack also dive deep into the Chinese real estate crisis. Filmed on August 4, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Thu, 04 Aug 2022 12:02:00 -0000
Collapsing Liquidity Has Put The Commodity Supercycle on Hold | Tian Yang
Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In the summer of 2020, there was no greater proponent of the commodity supercycle thesis - the idea that commodity prices would appreciate for many years in a secular fashion - than Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception. Since then, commodity prices - copper, oil, natural gas, you name it - have skyrocketed. Yet Yang now argues that the commodity supercycle is in intermission because economic growth is slowing rapidly and liquidity is collapsing as central banks rapidly tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation. Yang argues that long-term bonds (duration) will likely perform well in this environment. Yang also shares his view on the Fed, inflation, volatility, and the dollar. Filmed on August 1, 2022. -- Follow Tian Yang on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (05:45) Liquidity Is Collapsing (10:04) How Quickly Will Inflation Fall? (21:38) Is The Fed Put Gone? (26:48) Recessions in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. (31:14) Are Chinese Stocks A Buy? (37:02) European Stocks (38:50) Is The Dollar Rally Over? (45:22) 1984 Historical Analogue (51:40) Term Premium, Explained (57:30) Confidence Levels About Future Inflation (1:02:08) Potential Hedges (1:07:44) Most Common Investor Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 01 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Summer Meltdown In Stocks Unlikely, Says Volatility Expert Noel Smith
Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noels prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting). Link to Noels first video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions (07:09) Forward Volatility (10:53) New Outlooks (19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade (22:00) Navigating High Environments (27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio (33:15) The Nature Of Money (37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility (44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors (49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed (54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market (57:05) Short Squeezes (1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies (1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 28 Jul 2022 12:04:00 -0000
The Most Misunderstood Asset Class Of All Time | Louis Camhi
On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Louis Camhi in this special episode all about SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which are basically empty shell companies that go public in order to buy another company. Recently, the performance of SPACs has been in the red because they've become a vehicle for speculation. But Louis argues that if you redeem the SPACs and get the money back, it's basically like a bond, pointing out the similarities and demystifying this often misunderstood asset class. You won't want to miss this! Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (12:43) What is a PIPE? (Private Investment Equity) (15:10) What Is A SPAC Sponsor? (28:34) Current Opportunity Set Within SPACs (33:00) "Warrants Are The Truth" (35:26) Shorting SPACs (48:52) The Donlad Trump SPAC (DWAC) (50:05) More Aggressive SPAC Strategies (53:40) SPAC Arbitrage and Buy Writes (56:10) Characteristics of SPAC Holders (1:07:12) Where Is The Money Coming From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 27 Jul 2022 13:53:00 -0000
There Are No Doves Left At The Federal Reserve | Nick Timiraos
Ahead of tomorrows FOMC meeting, Nick Timiraos joins Jack Farley to talk about the economy and the Federal Reserve; how has it tightened financial conditions and what are they doing to combat the period of inflation we are currently facing? Timiraos breaks down the concept of Forward Guidance, and explains how to think about forthcoming rate hikes as well as the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT). Timiraos is the Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage. He focuses on the economy and The Federal Reserve. Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 25 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren
Nicholas Glinsman, CEO & CIO at EvoCapital LLC and Harald Malmgren, owner of Malmgren Global LLC, join Jack Farley to discuss the slowing economy: the causes, factors and leaders behind the market. Do leaders like Powell want a recession? Malmgren seems to believe so even though they wouldn't admit to it. Entering a deep recession before midterm elections can be critical in helping kill inflation. -- Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:01) A Slowing Economy (06:13) Why Is The Economy Slowing So Rapidly? (10:38) Powell, Yellen, and Biden (15:20) How High Will The Fed Hike? (19:39) Liquidity and Volatility (28:37) Reasons for Deglobalization (36:05) The Crypto World (37:59) Harald's View on Long Term Commodities (42:18) China (48:36) Centralization in Economic Growth (51:59)China Is Running Out of Dollars (57:48) The Dollar Milkshake (1:08:05) President Biden's Legacy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 21 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Why Are Commodities Crashing? | Tracy Shuchart
Tracy Shuchart, Partner and Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Jack Farley to talk about all things oil: how different parts of the world are affected by price spikes, supply and demand and other commodities. Why has the price of oil dropped? Looking at detailed charts, Shuchart goes over the oil market in countries such as Russia. -- Follow Tracy Shuchart on Twitter https://twitter.com/chigrl Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Looking at Extreme Oil Corrections (04:25) Current State of the European Energy Markets (06:00) Will Russia Turn Off Europe's Gas? (11:36) Economic Slowdown Playing a Role in Destroying Demand (14:09) Structural Supply Deficit (16:25) Why Is the Price of Oil Collapsing (23:00) Why are Corporations Making so Much Money? (24:30) Comparing Profit Margins (26:45) Tracy's View on Oil Equities and Sensitive Commodities (31:40) The Shorter Term (33:22) Commodities (35:47) Market Currencies in the Eye of the Storm (37:34) Thoughts on Natural Gas, Oil, and Other Disallates (39:30) Coal (41:03) Hedging Issues (43:00) Overrated Equities Within Commodities (48:35) Solar and Wind Stocks (49:43) Stocks Affected by Inflation (53:50) Recessions in the US and Europe -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 18 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Making Informed Decisions as an Individual Investor | Kyrill Asatur
Kyrill Asatur, Co-Founder and CEO at Centerfin, joins Jack Farley to talk about stocks, macro and the .com bubble. Asatur explains how important the services Centerfin offers because they have exclusive access to funds that retail investors normally dont have. What are some of the common behaviorial mistakes investors make? Working with institutional investors for almost 20 years, Asatur says individuals are prone to the same behaviors as retail investors. -- Follow Kyrill Asatur on Twitter https://twitter.com/wallsthobbes Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Macro at Centerfin (03:04) Decisions of an Individual Investor (08:55) Kyrill's View on Macro and the Fed (18:00) Stocks and the Dot Com Bubble (22:41) Centerfin's Accessibility to Funds (30:30) Distressed Bonds (32:41) Thinking About Size (38:45) Private Equity and Venture Capital (41:55) Common Behaviorial Mistakes Investors Make (44:46) What's Happening at Centerfin? (47:21) Kyrill's View on Crypto (53:36) Macro Hedge Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 14 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000
No Clear Sign Of Recession Yet, Says Nick Reece
Nick Reece, Vice President of Research at Merk Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the business cycle. He goes through a checklist of topics to dive deeper into including inflation, unemployment rates, mortgage rates and more. Are we currently facing a recession? According to data that the Business Cycle Dating Committee uses, Reece seems to not believe so. But thats not to say that the US will not go through another recession at some point. Reece explains once job reports come out, we can determine economic projections. Filmed on July 7, 2022. -- Follow Nick Reece on Twitter https://twitter.com/nicholastreece Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Nick's Outlook of the Business Cycle (11:13) Getting the Federal Reserve In Trouble (18:18) Expectations on Gas and Inflation (21:28) Unemployment and Inflation in the Cycle (28:54) Bit.com Ad (29:25) Recession on a Global Scale (32:10) PMIs (37:35) The Fed's Attempt to Combat Inflation (45:20) Where Priorities are Placed at the Federal Reserve (46:15) Projections for the Business Cycle (49:17) Asset Allocation (58:15) Looking at the Price to Earnings Ratio (1:00:45) Looking at Liquidity (1:04:58) Are We In A Recession? (1:09:58) Investments Nick Is Excited About -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 11 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Will A Recession End The Commodity Bull Market? | Rick Rule
Link to Rick Rules Symposium on Natural Resource Investing:https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/?affl=BlockWorks Rick Rule, veteran natural resource investor and former CEO of Sprott Inc., an investment firm with over 20 Billion in assets under management, joins Jack to share his current outlook on the commodity complex as well as several lessons he has learned over the course of his career. Lesson #1: dont overstay your welcome. When the price of a stock is assuming a price for the commodity it produces that is higher than you think is sustainable, it might be time to ring the register. Does the recent jittery price action mean a recession is in the cards? Perhaps so. But Rule still believes that underinvestment in production will make a durable commodity bull market very likely. Rule explains his outlook on natural gas, oil, copper, iron, and Uranium, and shares his opinion on several natural resource stocks from all around the globe. Filmed on July 5, 2022. -- Follow Rick Rule on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/RealRickRule Follow Jack on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:29) Commodity Thesis (04:20) Globally Synchronized Recession (10:15) What Matters More - Supply Or Demand? (14:52) Oil (26:23) The Energy Crisis In Europe (35:20) Natural Resource Symposium (39:44) Greatest Lessons Learned (48:53) Uranium (55:00) Natural Gas (57:07) Specific Stocks (1:01:50) Canadian Oil Stocks (1:04:58) Copper and Iron (1:07:32) Hedging (1:13:10) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 07 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000
We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski
Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as the silent depression. Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around. -- Follow Emil Kalinowski on Twitter https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The World's Third Depression (14:25) Recession Trends (16:08) Reasons For Current State of Depression (24:25) Banker Greed (30:28) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Speculation During A Depression (34:31) Inflation (44:23) The Euro Dollar System (51:20) Lending With the Euro Dollar System (53:29) Federal Reserve's Role in the Economy (1:06:19) Emil's Predictions for the Next 6 Months -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 04 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene
On today's episode of "Forward Guidance", Jack Farley is joined by Victoria Greene the Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth. After a confusing year for many investors, Victoria joins the show to asses current market conditions. Reflecting on the past 10 years of stock market performance, Victoria describes why now is not a "buy the dip" scenario. After seeing exuberance in certain equities, Victoria explains why she is more interested in value equities as we undergo Fed tightening, recession risk and market liquidity issues. To hear Victoria's thoughts, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Victoria Greene on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/victoria-greene-cfa-b51521119/ Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ =- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) What is G Squared Private Wealth (07:20) Shifting From Growth to Value In 2021 (11:42) Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Scenario (17:44) Current Market Liquidity (28:02) More Pain To Come For Unprofitable Technology Companies (33:13) VC, Private Equity & SPACs (40:50) Risk of Recession (46:58) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 30 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stferle and Mark Valek
Ronald Stferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (the wolf) and a striking economic downturn (the bear) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world. Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly. -- Follow Mark Valek on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkValek Follow Ronnie Stoeferle on Twitter https://twitter.com/RonStoeferle Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: 2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Background (06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble (26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time (40:45) Bit.com (41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook (54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook (1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot? (1:14:00) Counterparty Risk -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 27 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000
In 6 to 12 Months, Were Going To Have A Big Problem | Eric Basmajian & Joseph Wang
Is a recession imminent? What will the impact be on asset prices - and to what degree would it cause the Federal Reserve to stop tightening monetary policy? Today Jack welcomes Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, to answer these very important questions. -- Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Josephs writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:00) Economic Growth Is Stalling (05:00) What Is A Recession? (07:22) The Fed's "Unconditional" Commitment To Fight Inflation (09:20) Odds Of A Soft Landing (17:36) Timeline of a Recession (24:28) Fall Of The Commodity Complex (32:13) Demographics and Inflation (41:45) Bank Lending's Role In Inflation (53:45) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 23 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000
A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard
In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now. Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun. -- Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections (19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect (24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating (29:20) Looking at Economic Trends (35:02) Bit.com Ad (35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution (40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs (42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies (46:50) Zombie Companies (48:45) The Big Tech Companies (53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year (59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve (1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors (1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries (1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades (1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ (1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market (1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 20 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Trading Volatility in Volatile Markets | Benn Eifert
In this episode of Forward Guidance Benn Eifert, Founder & CIO of QVR Advisors joins the show for a deep dive discussion on all things volatility. As markets are all down year to date, many investors have been surprised with the orderly selling and lack of increase in the VIX. Luckily we have Benn on the show to share the role of put options in this market, wether or not macro matters for volatility traders and volatility at both the single stock and index level. We also discussed the past two years of stimulus induced retail options trading, how market structure has evolved, the best hedges for a slowly falling market and when we could expect a market bottom. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Benn Eifert on Twitter https://twitter.com/bennpeifert Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background (05:10) The Rise (And Fall?) Of Retails Options Traders (08:50) Put Options' Role In This Year's Viscous Sell-Off (13:57) The VIX (19:29) The Pricing of Tail Risk (24:32) Best Hedges For A Slowly Falling Market (28:00) Single-Stock Volatility (33:34) How Responsive Are Options Market Makers? (39:58) Credit and Treasury Volatility (48:11) Options Expiry ("OpEx") (55:35) Common Options Mistakes (1:01:00) The Macro (1:05:50) Does The VIX Have To Spike In Order For Stocks To Bottom? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Fri, 17 Jun 2022 18:30:00 -0000
Market Crash Unlikely Until July, Says Volatility Veteran | Noel Smith
Noel Smith, chief investment officer and head of options trading at Convex Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance for a special time-sensitive episode to share an observation from the options markets that he thinks could exert some buying pressure over the next two weeks. Smith notes that, due to a large asset manager putting on a collar a while back, options market makers are long lots of gamma at the 3620 level on the S&P 500, and thus will be forced buyers on the way down as they strive to remain delta neutral. This dynamic will only become stronger until the very end of June, and the fireworks in the S&P 500 may not start until July. Not investment advice. Filmed on June 16, 2022. -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 16 Jun 2022 17:45:00 -0000
Cash Is King During Fed's Hawkish Warpath, Says Former $20 Billion Fund Manager
Alfonso Alf Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and former $20 Billion fund manager, joins Jack Farley to break down yesterdays action-packed Fed meeting, in which Fed Chair Jay Powell laid out the Feds revised framework for moderating the rampant inflation that has beset the U.S. economy. Alf tells Jack why the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed aims for requires a further fall in risk assets, and therefore he expects that cash will perform well. Filmed the morning of June 16, 2022. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Alfonso Peccatiellos writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ His most recent piece that he and Jack discuss can found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop?s=r#details -- The Feds June statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220615a1.pdf The Feds Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) FOMC Overview (06:30) Powell - Good Cop or Bad Cop? (09:40) Inflation Expectations and Terminal Rate (12:25)Leverage and VaR Shock (17:08) Can The Fed Actually Control Inflation? (23:13) The Impact Of Higher Rates On Portfolio Allocation (29:37) What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio? (41:43) The Fed's Real Yield Paradigm Shift -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 16 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Soft Landing Very Unlikely As Global Inflation Crisis Rages On | Darius Dale & Juliette Declercq
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by two phenoms of macro analysis: Juliette Declercq of JDI Research and Darius Dale of 42Macro. The two explore the likelihood of the Feds much-desired soft landing, a scenario in which inflation moderates without a severe hit to economic growth or asset prices. Both Declercq and Dale argue that a soft landing is unlikely and that a fall in inflation will likely require not only a steep selloff in stocks but also a nosedive in economic growth that could amount to a recession. The trio also discuss the natural rate of interest (R*), financial repression, and demand destruction. -- Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42macroDDale Follow Juliette Declercq on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulietteJDI Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter ____ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) The Most Confusing Times In Macro? (04:30) How Far Can The Fed Go In Tightening Monetary Policy? (10:35) Odds Of A Soft Landing (21:02) What Will It Take To Break Inflation? (26:20) Bit.com Ad (26:52) The End Of Free Money (29:54) Europe (34:14) Shorting Equities (38:00) "The Scariest Chart in Macro" (44:07) Asset Allocation -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 13 Jun 2022 18:30:00 -0000
The Bear Market Is Here, What Next? | Joseph Wang & Alfonso Peccatiello
With stocks, crypto, bonds, gold, and commodities tanking, Jack calls an emergency podcast and asks trusted Forward Guidance regulars, Joseph Wang and Alfonso Peccatiello, to put the ongoing market volatility in the context of runaway inflation and central bank tightening. Filmed live on June 13, 2022. Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Joseph on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe to The Macro Compass: TheMacroCompass.substack.com Joseph's latest piece, "Turbo Tightening," can be found here: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/ Alfs latest piece, The True Reason Why Central Banks Do QE, can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/portfolio-rebalancing-qe?s=r#details Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletterMon, 13 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Liquidity Has Fallen Off A Cliff | Joseph Wang & Michael Howell
In this episode of Forward Guidance, fan favourites Michael Howell and Joseph Wang pair up to discuss the overarching theme of liquidity and the Fed. After sounding the alarm and forecasting a decline in equity markets towards the end of 2021, those predictions are now beginning to manifest in markets. Michael walks listeners through how he tracks market liquidity as a leading indicator for equity prices. Joseph provides an in depth look at the signals driving the Fed in this environment. Both guests share their thoughts on the Powell pivot myth, volatility, signs of stagflation, QT and so much more. This episode is jam packed with insights you can't afford to miss, but to hear them, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Michel Howell on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) What Is Liquidity? (09:10) Declining Refinancing Capacity (13:46) Bagehot's Rule and The Discount Window (24:50) Is This Unprecedented? (28:35) Is Waiting For A Powell Pivot Futile? (30:16) The Fed And The VIX (33:16) Inflation and Recession (36:24) How Much QT Can The Fed Actually Do? (39:20) Gold and Crypto (41:17) The U.S. Dollar's Role (45:17) The People's Bank of China (46:43) How Much Power Does the Fed Actually Have? (49:12) The Commercial Banking System (53:33) Where Are Long-Duration Bond Yields Headed? (1:02:28) Yield Curve Interpretations (1:07:08) Is There A Problem Lurking In Credit? (1:09:03) "Good Liquidity" vs. "Bad Liquidity" (1:12:55) China (1:18:10) Closing Thoughts On The Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 09 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Fed Is Burning Money | Harley Bassman
Today Jack is joined by none other than the Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman, who shares why he is wildly bullish on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) even as the Federal Reserve is in the process of reducing its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT). Bassman explains why long-term interest rates have shot up by so much and makes the case that, while he is confident that inflation will continue to run hot, the sell-off in long-duration Treasurys may not continue. Bassman goes on to explain the significance of the spike in interest rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index, his creation, and shares several investment theses on municipal bonds and equity LEAPs. Filmed on Friday, June 3, 2022. -- Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ConvexityMaven Follow Jack Farley on Twitter:https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Referenced In The Show: The Water Is Warm In The MBS Pool: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Convexity-Maven-MBS-Pool.pdf Fire Insurance - Revisited: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Convexity-Maven-Fire-Insurance-Revisited.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Historic Bond Sell-Off (09:48) Credit Vol (17:14) Is There A Powell Put On Credit? (21:56) Is Quantitative Tightening (QT) Money Burning? (25:05) Bit.com Ad (33:49) Yield Curve Inversion (41:26) Outlook on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (44:59) Pre-Payment and Extension Risk (51:42) Will MBS Convexity Humble the Fed? (1:00:08) Bassman's Highest Conviction View (1:03:38) Municipal Bonds (1:04:42) Longer-Dated Calls on Equity Indices -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 06 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Inflation Is Popping The Biggest Asset Bubble Of All Time | Michael Kao
Today Jack welcomes Michael Kao, retired hedged manager and private investor, on Forward Guidance for a wide-ranging conversation on liquidity, energy markets, cryptocurrency, and convertible bond arbitrage. Kao argues that risk assets have benefited from a liquidity lottery of quantitative easing and low rates, and that as a result financial markets are in a huge bubble that reminds him of the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. Kao explains why he is skeptical about the value of digital assets, and he does a deep dive into the capital structure of MicroStrategy ($MSTR). Important disclosure: Kao recently entered a short position in $MSTR. Kao is a veteran investor with a wealth of expertise in options pricing, commodity trading, convertible bond arbitrage, and global macro. He has over three decades of investing experience at Goldman Sachs, Canyon Capital Advisors, as well as Akanthos Capital Management, his own hedge fund. Nothing in this podcast should be considered as investment advice. Filmed on June 2, 2022. -- Follow Michael Kao on Twitter:https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Jack Farley on Twitter:https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter To get in touch with Jack Farley about sponsoring Forward Guidance, emailjack@blockworks.co. -- (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Michael Kao's Background (08:30) The New Dotcom Bubble 2.0 (22:50) The Rho Hedge War Story From 2008 (29:16) Will The Fed Pivot? Can The Fed Pivot? (34:45) MMT (42:05) The Energy Crisis (49:16) The Black Swan For American Oil (59:09) Speculative Bubbles As Inflation Capacitors (1:02:12) How Do You Value Crypto? (1:10:05) Housing Bubble? (1:11:14) Will QT Steepen The Yield Curve? (1:14:38) Digital Assets (1:18:00) How MicroStrategy Funds Its Bitcoin Purchases (1:28:58) "He's Not In Trouble Right Now" -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 02 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Fed Hawkishness Is A Charade - If Powell Doesnt Pivot, Prepare For A Depression | Larry McDonald
Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of A Colossal Failure Of Common Sense, thinks that those who take the Federal Reserve at its word are making a serious error. McDonald wastes little time to argue that the Federal Reserves assurances that it will tighten monetary policy (by raising rates and reducing its balance sheet) amount to little more than a sham: a series of promises that it can never keep, because doing so would plunge the United States into a deep recession. McDonald explains that, while he does not expect the S&P 500 to reach a new high for several years, he is anticipating a sharp rally in risk assets as the Federal Reserve tones down its hawkish rhetoric and abandons the most extreme of its measures to moderate inflation. McDonald argues that this supportive liquidity environment will drag the U.S. Dollar down and give an even greater lift to the ongoing bull market in energy as well as other hard assets such as gold. Filmed on May 31, 2022. -- Larry McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/larry_macdonald Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:50) Can The Fed Reduce Its Balance Sheet? (04:36) The Fed's Choice Between Stagflation and a Recession (09:39) How High Can The Fed Get? (19:27) Dot-com Bubble 2.0? (24:23) Outlook on S&P 500 (27:25) Bit.Com (27:55) The Energy Trade (31:44) Have We Reached Full Panic Mode Yet? (34:45) Commercial Real Estate (36:52) Shorting The U.S. Dollar (41:27) Inflation and Deglobalization (45:08) ESG Investing (49:25) Global Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 30 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Energy Stocks Remain Undervalued, Says Worlds Best Performing Hedge Fund Manager | Josh Young
Josh Young is the founder and chief investment officer of Bison Interests, an energy investment fund whose returns since October 2020 are ranked #1 in the HFM database. Young argues that, despite the phenomenal performance of the energy sector over the past 18 months, there are upstream producers that remain extremely undervalued relative to their current cash flows. Young explains why he thinks many of the major oil companies are burning capital and why he prefers smaller producers that are not on the radar of many investors flooding into the space. He shares his views on ESG, divestment, and the idea of a carbon bubble. This conversation is not investment advice. Filmed on May 27, 2022. -- Follow Josh Young on Twitter https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Bison Interests on Twitter https://twitter.com/BisonInterests Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Todays episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (00:10) Background (01:01) Supply Constraints (21:38) Is Energy Investing Just A Bet On The Price Of Oil? (33:04) Risks To The Energy Trade (56:14) Company-Specific Analysis (1:17:14) Is There A Carbon Bubble? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 26 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Europe and China: Already In Recession | Paul Hodges
Paul Hodges returns in a deep discussion on inflation, China, and the Federal Reserve. Paul joins Jack Farley to discuss recession and recession risk in Europe, China, and the U.S., as well as the fate of inflated hyper-growth stocks. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (13:45) Why Is Inflation Bad For Stocks? (21:24) Fate of Hyper-Growth Tech Stocks (23:15) Tesla (27:23) Ben Graham's Valuation Rules (30:03) Bit.com Ad (30:34) Recession In Europe (42:39) Recession Risk in the U.S. (46:10) Housing (49:05) The Federal Reserve (52:14) Chemicals Market Flashing Warning Signals (56:00) Recession in China (1:07:07) Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Wed, 25 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Central Banks Are Scrambling To Contain An Inflationary Wage Price Spiral | Nick Glinsman & Joseph Wang
Nick Glinsman, macro hedge fund manager and author at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) and Jack Farley to explore whether the Federal Reserve is at all disturbed by the vicious sell-off in risk assets, or if the carnage in equities and credit is actually in service of its mandate to control stable prices. Glinsman argues that the global economy is on the verge of a wage-price spiral for the first time in four decades, and the central bankers will be in no hurry to reverse course on their hawkish policy. Taking from his extensive experience working at some of the worlds most successful hedge funds, Glinsman warns viewers not to slip on a banana skin as they navigate the macro landscape. Joseph Wangs message to the viewers banking on a Powell Put is even more stark: wake the ____ up. -- Nick Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Nick Glinsman's writings can be found at https://intelligencequarterly.com/. Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/. -- Todays episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Banana Skins In This Market (13:14) The Fall Of The "Transitory" Narrative (23:30) The Wealth Effect in Reverse (30:50) Ad (36:07) Have Central Banks Lost Control? (41:18) The Dollar and Bonds (50:28) Bretton Woods III (59:55) Inflationary Hikes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Tue, 24 May 2022 19:30:00 -0000
The Fed's $3 Trillion Problem | Maroon Macro & Joseph Wang
Joseph Wang & Maroon Macro join me for a deep dive into the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's $3 Trillion problem. As t bill issuance dries up, reverse repo's spike & money market funds park their assets elsewhere, how will the Fed's quantitive tightening program and rate hikes effect the plumbing of the global financial system? Luckily I have two monetary plumbing experts to answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Maroon: https://twitter.com/Maroon_Macro Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_@FedGuy12 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 19 May 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Can Gold Withstand the Liquidity Drain? | Sean Fielder
Sean Fielder, chief investment officer at Equinox Partners, joins Jack Farley to discuss his views on gold, mining, inflation, the and Federal Reserves continued tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks, diving into everything from ESG investing to a mine's lifecycle and lifestyle. __ Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Intro (02:26) Emerging Markets And The Dollar (15:32) New Bretton Woods (17:19) How Far Can The Fed Go? (19:07) Is Gold An Inflation Hedge? (26:36) Bit.com Ad (27:06) Energy, Oil & Gas (39:44) ESG Investing (Environmental, Societal, and Governance) (46:08) Junior Gold Miners (53:16) Common Problems That Junior Gold Mining Companies Have (55:56) Jurisdictional Risk (1:05:05) Lifecycle Of A Mine (1:06:26) The Future Of Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 16 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Why Fed Chair Powell is NOT Coming To Rescue Stocks | Alfonso Peccatiello
On today's episode of "Forward Guidance," Jack Farley is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass newsletter and host of The Macro Trading Floor podcast on the Blockworks network. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. Alfonso joins Jack to share his outlook on the Feds efforts to tighten financial conditions in the hope of reining in inflation. Will these efforts crush the stock market? Will the Fed get its much-desired soft landing? Are there emerging signs of stress in credit spreads? In Alfonso's mind, one thing is for sure, Powell will NOT pivot this time. Monetary policy will be tightened until inflation is under control, Alfonso argues, and those investors relying on a Powell Pivot will be left holding the bag. Alfonsos writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/, here are some of the specific pieces he and Jack referenced: What If?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/what-if?s=r A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/serious-ish-about-inflation?s=r Alfonso Peccatiello on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Tightening Financial Conditions (08:17) The Macro Compass Quadrant Model (12:08) Stock Market Time Horizons (15:44) Shorting The S&P 500 (19:17) BCB Ad (20:06) Surging High Yield Bonds in Europe (22:53) Credit Spreads (29:43) Powell Is NOT Going to Pivot (35:42) Will the Fed Get Their Soft Landing? (38:58) When Will Bonds Become a Buy? (47:08) Changing Your Minds in Markets -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 12 May 2022 13:00:00 -0000
The Everything Risk Is Here | Ed Harrison
Ed Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of The Everything Risk, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserves ongoing tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks. Harrison shares his outlook on China, commodities, the FAANG stocks, and why he sees the makings for a new era for markets. __ Follow Ed Harrison on Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardnh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (02:36) Is The Era of East Money Over? (04:56) Comparisons to the 2000s Tech Album (13:30) Valuing Companies With Network Effects (16:23) Markets Reaction To Monetary Policy (18:46) ARKK (22:25) Fed Rate Hikes & Credit Markets (27:26) Where Is The Fed Put? (31:53) Bit.com Ad (32:25) A Shift From Deflation to Inflation? (37:31) FANTAMAN Stocks (40:28) How China is Exporting Stagflation (41:55) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine & The Effect On Energy Markets (46:19) Will High Energy Prices Cause Demand Destruction? (50:05) 5YR Breakeven Inflation (51:40) Inflation in Europe (52:58) The Global Dollar Wrecking Ball (56:06) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Mon, 09 May 2022 15:00:00 -0000
Its Game Over For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynchs Protg
George Noble has seen many bubbles in his storied career: the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the Dotcom Bubble of 2000, and the Japanese mega-bubble which he rode on the way up and down. But no prior period of speculation compares to what Noble sees now: a mega bubble of epic proportions, fueled primarily by a wave of central bank liquidity that has taken non-profitable technology stocks to previously unimaginable heights. Noble argues that inflation has been popping this bubble and that equities are toast and that goldilocks is dead. Noble sees overvaluation problems not only in the ARKK stocks but also darlings of the S&P 500 such as Amazon, Apple, and Netflix. As a warning to viewers, Noble shares words from the legendary investor Peter Lynch (his mentor): know what you own. George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Background (06:55) The Everything Bubble (13:36) The Powell Pivot (20:58) ARKK (25:43) BCB Ad (26:32) Inflation Is Popping The Bubble In Long-Duration Assets (39:50) Are Bonds A Hedge For Stock Sell-offs? (Answer: No) (41:12) How Low Can Stocks Go? (43:22) Netflix and Amazon (50:10) "Peter Lynch Would Not Be Buying Apple Right Now" (52:50) Energy (59:30) Crypto (1:02:50) Noble's Twitter Spaces -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 05 May 2022 13:00:00 -0000
The Food & Energy Crisis Has Only Just Begun | Doomberg
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by the mysterious green chicken known only as Doomberg, a research publication on energy, food, and fertilizer. Doomberg argues that the ongoing surge in oil and natural gas prices is due to key policy errors that, if they continue, will ensure that price shock will turn into a full-blown energy and food crisis that will push many countries to the brink of recession, particularly Europe and frontier market nations. Doomberg breaks down the frightening dependence of Europe on Russian energy and explains how, in the case of Germany, a rejection of nuclear power by so-called environmentalists led to its embrace of coal. -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Doomberg https://doomberg.substack.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI (edited) -- (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Start of Doomberg (05:27) Core Energy Thesis (12:00) How Germany's Rejection of Nuclear Led To Its Embrace Of Coal (14:32) The Weaponization of Russia's Natural Gas (19:40) Europe's Dependence on Russian Energy (34:00) Bit.com Ad (34:30) Nuclear Power (39:20) Farmers On The Brink (47:30) Oil (54:57) Renewables (01:08:36) Questions From Audience -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Thu, 05 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Fed Chair Powell Says Goodbye To Era Of Easy Money | Jim Bianco & Joseph Wang
Follow Jim Bianco https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Opening Thoughts (08:05) Powell's "Codewords" (15:10) The Balance Sheet: Stock vs. Flow (22:10) Is The Fed No Longer Credible? (27:32) When Is Inflation Going to Peak? (47:15) Worst Bond Market Sell-Off Since George Washington Became President (51:30) Systemic Risks For The Financial Systems (53:00) Are Rate Hikes Good for Commercial Banks? (1:01:04) How Far Can The Fed Go?Mon, 02 May 2022 20:35:21 -0000
A Dilemma Of The Feds Own Making | Danielle DiMartino Booth & Joseph Wang
Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder and CEO of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley and former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang to share her outlook on this weeks FOMC meeting. Booth argues that the Federal Reserves lateness to fight inflation has caused it to lose a lot more credibility, and makes the case that it risks to lose even more credibility if it fails to recognize that the economy is slowing rapidly. Booth notes that credit spreads are widening rapidly and argues that it will be a credit market blow-up, not an equity market drawdown, that forces the Federal Reserve to change course. Wang and Booth discuss how rising mortgage rates will deter the Fed from shrinking its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and they each give their take on the continued sell-off in Treasury bonds.Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter @DiMartinoBooth Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter athttps://blockworks.co/newsletterFri, 29 Apr 2022 20:06:12 -0000
Why The Repo Market Will Need The Feds Cash Yet Again | Scott Skyrm & Joseph Wang
Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income & repo at Curvature Securities, joins former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and host Jack Farley to share his insights from deep within the repo markets. Skyrm explores whether the Feds forthcoming balance sheet runoff will agitate repo markets like last time in September 2019, when repo rates spiked higher. Skyrm (@ScottSkyrm) and Wang (@FedGuy12) weigh important considerations, such as the Feds involvement with the market and what current repo rates indicate about the level of bond shorting. Skyrm tells Farley (@JackFarley96) that the trillions of Treasury collateral that the market will have to absorb over the next year will drain the ~$1.8 Trillion in Feds reverse repo facility, yank repo rates higher, and eventually cause the market to rely once again on the Feds standing repo facility. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jackThu, 28 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Short Everything Trade | Teddy Vallee
Jacks next guest is someone who has timed this cycle better than literally anyone he knows in macro. Since the beginning of the year, the elusive Teddy Vallee has been short almost everything, stocks but in particular U.S. government bonds, which are in the midst of their most vicious sell-off in almost 40 years. But very recently, Teddy has closed his short in government bonds and has actually entered a massive long position in Treausurys. Teddy tells Farley why he expects growth and inflation to slow rapidly as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. A note on the title: up until very recently, Vallee had the everything short (short stocks and bonds) on. But now that he is long bonds, he no longer does. Filmed on Tuesday, April 26. -- Follow Teddy Vallee on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com. Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Teddy's Successful Bond Short in Early 2022 (04:20) Teddy's Successful Equity Short in Early 2022 (05:43) The Economy Is Slowing Rapidly (07:58) The Fed's Key Error (11:05) Chinese Lockdowns Destroying Economic Growth (16:06) Going From Short to Long The Bond Market (23:33) What If The Fed Remains Hawkish (26:14) Bit.com Ad (26:46) Oil & Bretton Woods 3 (28:46) Confidence Levels Of Long Bond Trade (30:12) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Bond Yields (38:35) When Will Powell Pivot? (41:30) Gold (42:25) Crypto If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterMon, 25 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Can Europe's Economy Handle Russian Sanctions? | Frances Coppola
Frances Coppola, Economist, Author & banking expert, joins Forward Guidance to give an update on how the West's new sanctions on Russia are playing out. Coppola explains how key commodities such as Russian natural gas and oil continue to flow to Western countries, and she makes an impassioned case for why a ban on Russian energy is necessary to thwart the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. -- Follow Frances Coppola on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) Overview of Sanctions on Russia (07:08) Oil & Natural Gas (09:30) Wheat (14:20) Demand Destruction and Recession Risk (18:00) When Will We Hit Peak Inflation? (21:20) Central Bank Response Function (27:01) The European Central Bank (ECB) And Inflation (32:02) BCB Ad (35:45) The Dollar's Surge (1:20:36) Breton Woods IIIThu, 21 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Expect a 30% Correction in Stocks, Says Godfather Of Global Liquidity | Michael Howell
Liquidity is a critical concept in markets that many may have heard, but few truly understand. Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the global liquidity flows. He breaks down what liquidity is and he explains to Jack Farley how the tide of liquidity that has lifted asset prices over the past two years is reversing very quickly. Howell argues that, since 95% of central banks are tightening at the same time, the short-term risk/reward for stocks is poor, and he thinks a further 20% correction is ahead for the equity market. Howell explains the complex yield curve dynamics, and explains why the ongoing liquidity collapse might finally make long-term government bonds attractive once again. Filmed on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. A note on the title: Howells expectation of a 30% in stocks is from peak-to-trough, and since equities are down nearly 10% already, that would equate to a further fall of 20% from current levels (not 30% from current levels). _ Follow Cross Border Capital on Twitter @crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com. Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) What Is Liquidity? (10:59) The Turbulence Zone (21:06) What Will Be The First To Break? (23:58) Why Are Stocks And Credit Still So Richly Priced? (26:35) But What About Inflation? (32:24) Bit.com Ad (43:32) Can China Save the Day? (47:05) Why Falling Liquidity Causes A Dollar Squeeze (50:33) How High Oil Prices Further Deteriorate Liquidity (53:04) History of Global Liquidity (56:28) Capital Wars and Bretton Woods III (1:08:25) Is The Yield Curve Signaling A Recession? (1:09:56) How Far Will The Fed Get With QT? (Bagehot's Dictum)Wed, 20 Apr 2022 12:56:47 -0000
Commercial Banks Taper Treasury Purchases | Joseph Wang & DC Analyst
DC Analyst joins Joseph Wang and Jack Farley for a discussion about commercial banks, treasuries, and bearishness on banks. -- DC on Twitter: @AnalystDC Joseph Wang on Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_ -- Links ___ Liberty Street Economics, "The Feds Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility": https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/04/the-feds-balance-sheet-runoff-and-the-on-rrp-facility/ Bullard's Triple Rate Hike Comment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/last-resort-fed-hike-enters-debate-as-bullard-invokes-1994-move DC's substack: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-15?s=r Joseph Wang's writings: https://fedguy.com/draining-the-rrp/ -- (00:00) Introduction To DC Analyst (02:01) Why Are Banks Buying Fewer Treasuries? (14:30) Implosion Of The Japanese Yen (20:40) Who Will Buy The Treasuries? (31:20) What If Banks Don't Lend More? (37:30) Bearish For Banks? (No) (42:47) Quantitative Tightening - Will The Fed Be Forced to Sell? (46:57) Mortgage-Backed Securities (57:40) Bullard's Comments on Triple-HikeMon, 18 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Think Rising Rates Are Good For Banks? Think Again!
An oft-cited fact is that rising rates support the profitability of the commercial banking system. Chris Whalen, veteran banker, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors & Author of The Institutional Risk Analyst begs to differ. Whalen explains to Farley that banks make money by the spread between their yield on their loans and their cost of funds, and that while rising rates do increase loan yields, they also increase banks cost of funds. Whalen also explains why he thinks the Federal Reserve will be unable to do Quantitative Tightening because it will be stuck with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for many years. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:35) Inflation (18:13) The Problem The Fed Faces with Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (21:08) Can the Federal Reserve Become Insolvent? (24:57) Mortgage Lending At Commercial Banks27 (27:32) BCB Ad (28:20) Are Rising Rates Good For Banks? (31:54) Why A Recession Is Likely? (34:51) Outlook on Bank Stocks and U.S. Treasuries (44:00) Biggest Risk: Non-Bank Lenders (48:31) Credit Card Lending (51:16) Will Banks Suffer Losses from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine? (54:40) European Banks (58:35) Jack's Post-Conversation ExplanationThu, 14 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Slaying the Inflation Dragon | Jurrien Timmer
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, joins Forward Guidance to explain his outlook of the current macro environment marked by slowing rates of growth and inflation coming down from high levels as central banks scramble to tighten monetary conditions. Timmer notes that while risk-free rates (as measured by Treasury yields) have risen sharply, risk premia as measured by credit spreads - and, in particular, the earnings yield of stocks - have barely budged. Timmer shares his outlook on bonds, commodities, equities at this point in the economic cycle, and he explains his long-term bull case for Bitcoin, as well as why one of his models indicates gold is severely undervalued (not investment advice). Nothing Timmer or Farley say is investment advice.Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter @TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com. Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (06:08) Where Are We In The Cycle Now? (12:40) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (21:29) The Stock Market (30:22) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Commodities (36:25) Gold (44:24) Will The Fed Reverse on Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (56:48) Japanification & Yield Curve Control (1:06:18) BitcoinWed, 13 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Inflation Forces The Fed's Hand | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves
Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and George Goncalves to discuss the bond market, plumbing, inflation & more. -- Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow George Goncalves @bondstrategist Follow @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterSun, 10 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Birth of the U.S. Dollar | Roger Lowenstein
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Roger Lowenstein to discuss his new books and the intricacies of the American financial institution during and before the Civil War. Taking a look back at history, Roger is able to make connections to our modern day and how we can empower ourselves by knowing our backstory. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:27) American Finance Before the Civil War (06:46) How Did the North Fund the Civil War? (15:25) How the South Funded The Civil War? (18:56) Disastrous Inflation In The South (24:02) BCB Ad (25:25) Illegal Cotton Smuggling And Parallels To Russian Gas (34:20) Will Commodity Price Shock Cause A Recession? (37:36) Inflation (42:28) The Fed (47:03) Final Reflection on President LincolnThu, 07 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Bullish Commodities? Not So Fast | Lukas Kuemmerle
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Lukas Kuemmerle joins Jack Farley to talk his commodity plan and interests in 2022. As someone interested not only in the strategy, but background of commodities, Lukas provides a comprehensive explanation of each of his commodity interests, discusses the current situation in Germany, and makes a case for his bullishness on Bitcoin. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Background and Framework (05:01) Commodity Overview (11:00) Oil & Natural Gas (23:54) Inflation Amid Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (26:15) Why Lukas Got Short-Term Skeptical of Commodity Prices In March (31:07) Backwardation & Contango (34:30) Bearish On Soybeans (39:26) Wheat (41:08) Shipping (46:08) Bearish Copper (48:50) Dollar Strength (50:32) Germany (55:40) BitcoinWed, 06 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Zoltan Pozsar Calls For Bretton Woods III | Joseph Wang
Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang to discuss Zoltan Pozsar's recent Global Money Dispatch titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'. Read Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III here: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V -- Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterSun, 03 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Inflationary Recession Is On The Horizon | Paul Hodges
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle. Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021 (03:57) Forecasting A Recession (08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation (14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe (16:42) Oil Market Outlook (19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy (25:12) BCB Group Ad (26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy? (39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil (41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World (57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market (1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & BeyondThu, 31 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000
When Volatility Strikes, Watch Out! | Kris Sidial
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020. After noticing how the micro structure of markets had changed due to passive investing, buy side flows, primary dealer hedging post 2008 & ever increasing amounts of QE by the Fed, Kris founded Ambrus Group to take advantage of periods of increased volatility. Kris takes us all the back to March 2020, discussing the market mechanics which led to such a rapid sell-off. Now in 2022, as markets face increasingly uncertain headlines & the Fed begins tightening, Kris gives his outlook for 2022, sharing his key indicators to look out for, to avoid your portfolio being hit by volmageddon 2.0. -- Follow Follow Kris Sidial: @Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_ Barclays' VXX price jump drives double-digit gains for volatility arbitrage fund: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/barclays-vxx-price-jump-drives-double-digit-gains-volatility-arbitrage-fund-2022-03-16/ -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterSun, 27 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Nothing Destroys Inflation Like a Recession | Darius Dale
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes returning guest, Darius Dale of 42Macro. Darius sits down to discuss the current macro environment from recession warning signals on the horizon, stock & bond correlations during market sell-off's, the outlook for commodities in this environment, ARKK & other high beta assets and the mechanics driving inflation & the yield curve. 42Macro website: https://42macro.com/ Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ -- -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterThu, 24 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Will Janet Yellen Pull the Trigger? | Andy Constan
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Andy Constan joins Jack to discuss the latest in financial news, reflecting on the Fed while discussing topics like market plumbing, roll-downs, and more. Andy Constan injects his absolute expertise of the subject matter into this interview-- you won't want to miss it. Follow Andy Constan @dampedspring Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterTue, 22 Mar 2022 20:31:01 -0000
The Fed's Forward Guidance Is No More | with Nick Timiraos
Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Nick Timiraos to discuss the Fed, forward guidance, and what the recent news all means for both. Follow Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterSun, 20 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Short Selling in the Age of Fraud | Carson Block
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Carson Block, Investor & Founder of Muddy Waters Research. Known for his role in activist short selling, Carson shares how he began his career in investing, what led him to being an activist short seller & reflects on the past two years of markets in the face of reckless monetary policy. Carson goes on to share the hows and whys of short selling, techniques for identifying fraudulent companies, differences between short selling in China vs the U.S, the role of activist short selling in markets and much more. Carson Block on Twitter @muddywatersre Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterThu, 17 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Options Trading for Macro Investors | Imran Lakha
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, class is back in session with Imran Lakha as the attending professor. Going through the basics of options, Lakha turns his attentions not only to the absolute fundamentals, but to the whys and hows of options, explaining their use, what can affect them, and when and where they should not be used. Not only is this a perfunctory lesson in options but a deeper dive into their function into the economic world for beginners and masters alike of the macro trade. Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_Wed, 16 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000
The Bond Market Has Spoken. Should Investors Listen? | Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman
The yield curve has flattened dramatically - should investors be worried as the curve is very close to inverting? Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman are on the case. Follow Harley Bassman @ConvexityMaven Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow @Blockworks_ Bassman's most recent piece: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Convexity-Maven-Dangerous-Curves-Ahead.pdf Wang's most recent piece: https://fedguy.com/breaking-the-system/Sun, 13 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000
Fed Faces "Debt Death Spiral" While Inflation Soars | Luke Gromen & Jim Bianco
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Luke Gromen, Founder of FFTT to discuss the situation the Fed finds itself in the face of the highest inflation in 40 years. With a debt to GDP over 100%, is the Fed trapped and inflation the only way out? Luke discusses the post 1971 Nixon shock's effect on the Dollar and walks us through the series of events which led to the Fed now being faced with, a "debt death spiral". Jim explains how inflation is President Biden's biggest problem and what this means for rate hikes ahead of FOMC. Are there signs of a recession in the U.S economy as commodities soar, the 2s 10s yield curve spread tightens & OIS spreads turn negative? Jim & Luke provide an absolute macro power hour you CAN'T afford to miss. To hear their thoughts on commodities, stress in the treasury market, effect of Russia & Ukraine conflict, sanctions speeding up the trend of de-dollarization & the death of globilazation, you're just going to have to tune in to find out. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterThu, 10 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Gold to $10,000 in The Big Reset | Willem Middelkoop
Willem Middelkoop, Founder & Chief Investment Officer of the Dutch-based Commodity Discovery Fund joins Forward Guidance to asses the macro forces driving commodity markets. What effect will war in Ukraine have on wheat, natural gas & oil prices around the globe? Willem goes on to discuss his book from 2014 titled 'The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame' and how current events are shaping a monetary reset. Willem also describes the famous 1971 Nixon shock, what a gold revaluation would look like, how sanctions could effect commodity markets, the roadmap to a $1 Million Bitcoin & how investors can navigate these volatile markets. _ Willem Middelkoop on Twitter @wmiddelkoop Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterTue, 08 Mar 2022 23:05:00 -0000
Does The Fed Control The Dollar? | Jeff Snider & Joseph Wang
Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Jeff Snider to discuss the Fed's control of the dollar and recent news surrounding the dollar's weight and worth. Follow Jeff Snider @JeffSnider_AIP Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterSun, 06 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcome Juliette Declercq to a thorough investigation into what's driving our economy and how it gets hurt. With her expertise and personal knowledge of the situation, Juliette and Jack analyse the market, looking at specific commodities and tracking trends showing up in our everyday. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterFri, 04 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Kharkiv Under Siege Yet Russian Oil Still Flows | Jacob Shapiro
Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the latest news and finds regarding the turmoil between Russia and Ukraine. Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterThu, 03 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The Central Bank Of Russia Is On The Defensive with Joseph Wang & Frances Coppola
Frances Coppola and Joseph Wang break down the true implications and mechanics of sanctions against Russia. Key learnings include: 1) SWIFT isn't a payment rail, it's a messaging system. 2) The sanctions on Russian commercial banks don't go into effect until March 26 and contain many loopholes 3) The sanctions on the Russia's Central Bank were declared by governments but *require* action from Fed + ECB 4) The U.S. Treasury provided Russian commercial banks with a diagram teaching them how to circumvent its own policy Follow Frances Coppola @Frances_Coppola Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_Sun, 27 Feb 2022 16:00:00 -0000
How Passive HODL-ing Of Stocks Leads to Extreme Crashes | Mike Green
Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the market turmoil that has caught investors off guard so early on in 2022. Green tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rotation from growth stocks to the so-called inflation-trades (energy, industrial, and commodity stocks, for example), might have gotten ahead of itself. Green examines the mechanics of how passive flows distort price discovery and cause tendencies for the market to drift steadily higher while also raising the risk of extreme downward price movements. He explains how options overlays can take advantage of this environment and discusses his decision to bring those products to investors in an ETF wrapper. Green also discusses Simplifys new credit hedge ETFs, AGGH and CDX. Green argues that inflation will relent soon, and that the future rate hikes priced into the bond market likely overstate how far the Federal Reserve will actually raise rates. Mike Green on Twitter @profplum99 Simplify on Twitter @SimplifyETFs Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ __ BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://www.bcbgroup.com/jack __ Two papers Green discusses: Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967 Lasse Heje Pedersen, Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2849071 _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterThu, 24 Feb 2022 22:22:00 -0000
Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine with Jacob Shapiro
Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the impact of Russia's latest moves involving Ukraine. Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterWed, 23 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Russia/Ukraine Crisis To Cause Commodity Doom Loop | Jacob Shapiro
*AUDIO DISCLAIMER: Mic issue during the recording led to some high levels on Jack's end. We're aware, and we're sorry! Might want to tap the volume down a couple notches for this one. Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Forward Guidance to break down the rapidly escalating hostility between Russia and Ukraine. Shapiro puts in context including Russias recognition of Luhansk and Donestk as independent sovereign republics and the punitive sanctions on Russia. Shapiro tells Jack Farley that, if Russian tanks roll down the tanks of Kiev, the West might cut Russia off from the payment rails for global commerce, SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). If Russia were unable to sell its natural gas, wheat, and other commodities in Western markets, Shapiro continues, there could be a commodity doom loop that would cause prices to skyrocket. Shapiro also shares his outlook on China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Iran. Shapiro also serves as chief strategist at Perch Perspectives and the Geopolitics editor at Lykeion. This interview was recorded on Tuesday, February 22, at 10 am Eastern Time. Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterSun, 20 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Why Inflation Will Dissipate | Bilal Hafeez
Bilal Hafeez joins Jack Farley to discuss and analyse the differences between Europe and the United States on this episode of Forward Guidance. Not only does he lay out the departing events and patterns that distinct each region, but also explore other countries, like China and Brazil. Along with that, Hafeez also outlines his crypto views, experience during the last two years, and what he sees going forward for crypto. Follow Bilal Hafeez @bilalhafeez123 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterThu, 17 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton
Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, brings his expertise in trading, timing, and technicals to Forward Guidance. Thornton shares with Jack Farley the serious risks he sees to the stock market, such as the end of quantitative easing (QE), coordinated central bank rate hikes, widening spreads, inverted yield curves, and, perhaps most importantly, the highest inflation in 40 years. Tommy Thorntons Twitter: @TommyThornton Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterTue, 15 Feb 2022 21:00:14 -0000
Bank of Japan Re-embraces Yield Curve Control | Roundup
Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) tackle the latest in central banking news, from the the Bank of Japans (8301.T) announcement that it would pin Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at 25 basis points, to the massively-overhyped emergency Fed meeting on Monday, to St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullards comments that the Federal Reserves credibility is on the line. Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Sun, 13 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The Fed Won't Get their Soft Landing | Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Jack Farley to share in-depth his framework for understanding the new interplay of inflation, the Fed, and asset prices in 2022. Bianco argues that the mounting pressures on central banks to tame inflation mean that they are far less worried about maintaining asset prices. Bianco and Farley also discuss DeFi as a threat to the traditional banking industry and the profound economic and social consequences of the rise of work-from-home. Filmed on February 9, 2022. Follow Jim Bianco @biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack. _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterThu, 10 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Financial Meltdown: The Trades Of March 2020 | Alex Gurevich
Alex Gurevich, CIO of Honte Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his learnings from running a large macro hedge fund during the gut-wrenching volatility of March 2020. Using time-date transcripts and charts from his new book, The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty, Gurevich tells of the epic mispricings and gut-wrenching drawdowns that sent shockwaves through the global financial world. Gurevich provides insight on institutional macro products such as Eurodollar options, oil futures, currency swaps, and much more. Gurevich looks forward and tells Farley his current outlook on Fed Fund Futures, long-term bonds, as well as risk-assets (beta) such as equities and commodities. Alex Gurevich on Twitter: @agurevich23 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Tue, 08 Feb 2022 21:00:00 -0000
European Bonds Throw A Tantrum | Joseph Wang
Co-hosts Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) break down the surge in European bonds in response to the hawkish shift of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB). Wang explains his most recent post on the damage that rate hikes inflict onto holders of fixed-income instruments, and the two explore the significance and consequences of a globally coordinated effort by central banks to stop inflation in its tracks. Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Wangs most recent article on Quantitative hikes: https://fedguy.com/quantitative-hikes/ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Sun, 06 Feb 2022 17:00:00 -0000
The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins
Porter Collins and Vincent Daniels were some of the last investors to bet against the Federal Reserve and win. Over 13 years after the events of The Big Short, they reflect on the past decade wherein the Federal Reserve tamed asset price volatility by keeping short-term rates very low and steadily expanding their balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE). Learning from this lesson, Daniels and Collins explains how Seawolf Capital largely avoided shorting stocks during 2021 because the Fed had the markets back. Now that high inflation has forced the Feds hand to tighten monetary policy, Daniels and Collins think that 2022 will be an excellent year for short-selling, and that in particular the most vulnerable stocks are unprofitable growth companies that saw enormous price appreciation in 2020 and 2021. The pair explain why they remain bullish on nuclear energy, the cannabis industry, as well as stocks in the shipping and energy sector. Follow Porter Collins @Seawolfcap Follow Vincent Daniels @VD718 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterThu, 03 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The Fed Doesn't Care About Your Feelings | Liz Young
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley sits down with Liz Young for a market 101 breakdown. Not only does Liz investigate some of the broader market trends, but narrows focus to explain how human behaviour, current events, and the Fed's mechanisms have all culminated in what we see today.Tue, 01 Feb 2022 21:01:58 -0000
Will The Dollars Rise Crush Central Banks Plans?
Jack Farley welcomes back former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (Fed Guy), to analyze an action-packed week in which global central banks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Central Bank of Brazil, and the European Central Bank (ECB) release their plans for forthcoming monetary policy. Wang explains why a continued rise in the U.S. Dollar relative to other fiat currencies would likely force other central banks to tighten at a rate they deem to be too fast. Farley fields questions from the audience regarding balance sheet run-off and pace of rate hikes, and he poses to Wang the eternal questions: are reserves money? Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Sun, 30 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis | Russell Napier
Russell Napier of Orlock Advisors joins Jack Farley to share lessons from his experience as an financial analyst in Hong Kong during the Asian Financial Crisis. Napier notes that during the bull market in Asian equities of the first half of the 1990s, analysts attributed the boom to the high rates of economic growth in much of Asia. However, Napier tells Farley that the true cause of the dramatic bull market was the multitude of pegged exchange rates that did not allow Asian currencies to strengthen as foreign capital flowed in, boosting liquidity conditions. However, once the tide of foreign capital reversed course, the Asian miracle became a nightmare. Napier is the author of The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-98: Birth of the Age of Debt. https://www.libraryofmistakes.com/ Library of Mistakes Twitter: @EdinburghLoM Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Fri, 28 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Has the Fed Abandoned Risk Assets? | Joseph Wang
Jack Farley welcomes former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) for a new show devoted to all things central banking. The two analyze the most recent FOMC meeting, after which Fed Chair Powell on January 26, indicated that the strong labor market and high inflation prints were leading the Feds FOMC members to contemplate removing monetary accommodation with more speed and vigor than previously anticipated. Wang and Farley discuss the spike in Fed Funds Futures, quantitative tightening (QTs) impact on the market, as well as the striking request of Chinas leader, Xi Jinping, that the Federal Reserve not raise rates. Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Tue, 25 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Upcoming Risks for Stocks and Bitcoin | Lyn Alden
Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to give a much-needed update on her macro views as equity and crypto markets encounter intense selling pressure. Alden argues that stubbornly high inflation will cause rotation from growth stocks to value stocks to continue. However, Alden argues that shes more likely to buy than short beleaguered hypergrowth names (think $ARKK) - instead she sees the greatest weakness in the mega-cap FAANG names, which she compares to the Nifty Fifty stocks, a basket of blue-chip equities that seemed impregnable in the 1960s but ultimately fared poorly in the later inflationary decade of the 1970s. But its not the 1970s, where interest rates rose to meet inflation, that reminds Alden the most of our current era; instead it is the 1940s, where policies such as yield curve control ensured that bond yields remained well below levels of inflation. Alden argues that in this environment of sustained negative real interest rates, commodities will perform very well, and in particular commodities of fixed supply like gold and Bitcoin. Lyn Alden on Twitter: @LynAldenContact Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_ Lyn Aldens investment analysis can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/. If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter.Fri, 21 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Inflation or Recession - Which Will the Fed Choose? } Jared Dillian
Is the Federal Reserve stuck between a rock and a hard place? Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap argues that the monetary tightening needed to tame inflation will inflict serious damage to the economic recovery, to the point that the Fed essentially has a choice between secular inflation and severe recession. Which door will the Fed choose? Dillian is inclined to believe that the Fed will attempt to chart a middle path between both options that will actually result in the dreaded stagflation - where inflation continues to rise while economic growth slows down. Dillian tells Forward Guidance host Jack Farley why he thinks the ongoing rotation from growth stocks to value stocks will continue, and why he in particular is interesting in buying the shares of big and ugly companies. Dillian also shares his views on crypto, gold, and bonds. Dillian on Twitter: @dailydirtnap Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_Tue, 18 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Stock & Crypto Options Have Exploded - Whats Next? | Imran Lakha & Ming Zhao
Imran Lakha and Ming Zhao join Jack Farley to make sense of how the proliferation of options has changed the investing landscape in tradfi and crypto. After discussing the role of memestocks like GameStop and AMC, as well as structural vol selling call overwriting, Lakha and Zhao share the dos and donts of buying and selling options, such as why investors should never exercise options, and how investors should think about whether implied volatility is rich or cheap. Lakha and Zhao also catalog the explosion of crypto options, both via centralized exchanges such as Deribit as well as the emergence of DeFi Options Vaults (DOVs). Zhao on Twitter: @FabiusMercurius Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_Fri, 14 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The Powell Put Won't Save Stocks | Joseph Wang
In this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack once again sits down with former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang, more commonly known by his moniker Fed Guy. In the interview, the two go deep into the leadership, policy, and future of the Federal Reserve, as well as look at how textbook concepts such as the Fed controlling inflation through the federal funds rate are outdated at best. Joseph takes his years of experience and impressive knowledge of modern financial systems to critique how central banks run the economies of today. Jack and Joseph question if the Fed is on the right path to end inflation and if the current regime even knows how to combat the problems of an economy overheated by fiscal stimulus. Dont miss this important and thought-provoking interview. Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Wed, 12 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Can Earning Season Save Growth Stocks? | Sam Burns
In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley sits down with Sam Burns, the founder and chief strategist of Mill Street Research. In addition to general macro trends in the economic and financial world, Sam and Jack discuss Sams MAER model (Monitor of Analyst Earning Revisions), which uses the insight of market analysts to judge how the markets will move. Using the research of analysts, Sam is able to buck the predictions of the crowd and come to his own well-formulated conclusions on markets. Jack and Sam delve into complexity sometimes required to grasp todays difficult-to-understand swings in finance. The two question and rethink traditional narratives within finance in this high-level discussion. Dont miss this talk with a heterodox thinker in the financial industry. Mill Street Research on Twitter: @MillStResearch Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Fri, 07 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000
The Crisis Brewing in Energy Markets | Tracy Shuchart
In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley and guest Tracy Shuchart discuss the tumultuous past two years of the energy market. Since 2020, the markets for oil and natural gas have hit historic points, most famously when the futures price of oil went negative in April of 2020. Tracy gives expert insight into how the energy sectors adaptation to massive shocks in demand, production, and financial credibility have affected the price of oil in the spot market and the futures market. The interview delves not only into the superficial price movements of the recent past, but into powerful decision makers such as OPEC as well. Additionally, Tracy and Jack look at exogenous factors causing price movements, such as a move towards green energy and recent geopolitical tensions in Europe and Central Asia. The conversation delves into the current reality of the energy market, as well as its potential future. Hedge Fund Telemetry: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/author/tracy-shuchart/ Tracy Shuchart on Twitter: @chigrl Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Tue, 04 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000
Theres A Bubble in The Inflation Narrative | Darius Dale
Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for 2022. Dale explains why his business cycle framework, which tracks the rate of change in growth and inflation in order to forecast and risk manage asset allocation, is signaling that the bloom may be off the rose for high-beta assets such as speculative growth darlings, crypto-assets SPACs, as well as reflationary stocks in the materials and energy space. Because the rate of change of economic growth is falling, Dale expects safer assets like mega-cap tech (FAANG) and long-term government bonds to outperform on a relative basis. Dale notes that his framework is probabilistic in nature, not deterministic, and he argues that investors are better served by weighing the likelihood of relative outcomes rather than looking into their crystal ball for certain outcomes. Dale also cautions against becoming wedded to narratives that promise assured outcomes. 42Macro website: https://42macro.com/ Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Fri, 31 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000
Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle
On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jack welcomes Ronnie Stoeferle, partner at Incrementum AG. Stoeferle argues that the world is already in a new inflationary era that he calls monetary climate change. Stoeferle discusses key features of a debt-based monetary system (50 years and counting) and predicts that the merging of fiscal and monetary policy will create a shift from asset price inflation to consumer price inflation. Stoeferle shares why he believes gold and Bitcoin will do very will in this new monetary environment, and he elaborates on several key drives of the prices of both of these non-inflatable assets. Incrementum's website: https://www.incrementum.li/en/ Ronnie Stoeferles Twitter: @RonStoeferle Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Tue, 28 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000
The Hidden Risks of Passive Investing | Steven Bregman
The rise of indexation has given many investors a cheap and straightforward way to access the stock market. But now that over half of all investing dollars are allocated to passive strategies, is the dominance of passive investing creating market distortions in ways that meaningfully alter share prices? Steven Bregman, president and co-founder of Horizon Kinetics, has been tracking the consequences of passive indexations rapid rise, and on this sixteenth episode of Forward Guidance, he shares with viewers his findings. Bregman explains key factors such as the crowding-out effect and hidden illiquidity that can explain the drastic outperformance of equity giants such as Apple, Microsoft, and other mega-cap stocks ($NVDA, $TSLA, $FB, etc.) that now comprise nearly half of the S&P 500.Bregman argues that the S&P 500 in 2021 is no longer a diversified basket of stocks as it was 30 years ago, because so many out-of-favor stocks such as oil drillers, gold miners, and other businesses that benefit from bouts of inflation (such as the one right now) have been crowded-out of the index. At the end of this nearly two-hour masterclass in passive investing, Bregman reveals a formula that he argues is guaranteed to beat the S&P 500: select for the smart penny. Horizon Kinetics website:https://horizonkinetics.com/ Jacks prior interview with James Davolos, Portfolio Manager of the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bVpJ58FhFc About $INFL:https://horizonkinetics.com/products/etf/infl/ Horizon Kinetics Twitter handle: @HorizonKinetics Jack Farleys Twitter handle: @JackFarley96Fri, 24 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000
Former Fed Trader: Rate Hikes Will Crash Markets | Joseph Wang
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang, renowned former Fed trader, shares his views and observations on our macro world. Not only does he explain concepts like quantitative easing, but he also goes over the disparate affects of various market conditions-- from the Fed's accelerated taper, to the outcome of rate hikes. Wang's views and discussions on both the past but future long-term are not to be missed!Tue, 21 Dec 2021 15:14:04 -0000
Felix Zulaufs Big Calls For 2022 And Beyond
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor known for his uncanny market timing, shares his outlook on various time horizons about stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf explains why the reflationary types of trades might continue to sell-off over the near-term as economic conditions worsen, however restored liquidity conditions might in the second half of 2022 breathe new life in stocks and commodities. Zulauf shares his longer-term analysis on gold and currencies, and tells Jack Farley why he thinks that bond yields are in the process of bottoming.Fri, 17 Dec 2021 14:00:00 -0000
The Bull Market In Crap Is Over | Kevin Muir
Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares: Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls crap) will likely continue How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocksTue, 14 Dec 2021 14:00:00 -0000
Are Bonds Pricing in a Market Crash? | Alfonso Peccatiello
Todays guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass. Alfonso shares with Blockworks Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss: - the global credit impulse turning negative - long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt) - why quantitative easing (QE) isnt inflationary Alfonso Peccatiellos Twitter: @MacroAlf Jack Farleys Twitter:@JackFarley96 Alfonso Peccatiellos newsletter, The Macro Compass:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Article on quantitative easing:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printing Article on 2022 outlook:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolioFri, 10 Dec 2021 16:30:00 -0000
Inflation Is Not Transitory, And Neither Is The Bear Market In Atrocious Companies | Harris Kupperman
With fund managers keen to lock in gains from a lucrative year, the pain trade is here, says Harris Kuppy Kupperman. Moreover, pie-in-the-sky technology companies are falling back to earth, threatening to bring the entire market down with them. Yet Kuppy remains bullish on risk assets because in his Project Zimbabwe framework wherein inflation runs rampant as central banks remain hopelessly behind the curve, going long is the way to go. Kuppy argues that oil futures are the assets that will benefit most from inflation because ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates will depress supply. Kuppy, the publisher of Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM), also shares several idiosyncratic trades ranging from Uranium to paper. Kuppy and Blockworks Jack Farley also discuss China, Robinhood, and United States Oil ETF ($USO).Tue, 07 Dec 2021 22:32:23 -0000
A Little Bitcoin Goes a Long Way | James Butterfill
The emergence of crypto funds and exchange traded products (ETPs) has changed the game - but just how much capital is flowing into crypto via these channels? James Butterfill, Investment Strategist at CoinShares, joins Jack Farley to shed light on the crypto fund flows that are serving as onramps for many institutional investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Solana and Polkadot.Fri, 03 Dec 2021 19:12:35 -0000
The Unintended Consequences of Central Banks' Easy Money | William White
Listeners of the Forward Guidance podcast are in for a real treat today. Jack interviews noted economist and former central banker Dr. William White, who served on the front lines of monetary policy for over half a decade. White, a stern critic of the easy money policy that preceded the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, argues that ultra-low interest rates threatens financial stability and creates a bevy of unintended consequences such as flash crashes, overvalued asset prices, and abrupt illiquidity. Dr. White shares his views on whether the U.S dollars status as the worlds reserve currency is sustainable, and why bond yields remain low in face of the red-hot inflation that has descended on so many countries. Lastly, Dr. White makes the case that these economic woes are but one of the major four challenges world faces, with the other three "Four Horsemen" being in the spheres of politics, public health, and the environment.Tue, 30 Nov 2021 14:30:00 -0000
Investment Strategies to PROFIT From Inflation (Not Just Hedge) | James Davolos
With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal? On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that inflation will increase the value of scalable, economically resilient business models with exposure to hard assets, and he shares several examples, ranging from gold royalty companies and financial exchanges to timber companies and agricultural processing firms.Fri, 26 Nov 2021 18:52:32 -0000
The Dollar Rises With Crypto And Gold - What Gives? | Michael Nicoletos at DAS: London
When Jack Farley ran into macro investor Michael Nicoletos at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in London, he knew the two had to film an interview. Nicoletos shares his thoughts on cryptos role within a macro portfolio, why the U.S. dollar is rising against other currencies, and why the 40-year bull market in bonds might not yet be over. Nicoletos argues that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will eventually replace stablecoins as an onramp to crypto, and argues that China economic woes are very serious. Blockworks next crypto event in May 2021:https://blockworks.co/events/permissionless/ Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Michael Nicoletos Twitter: @mnicoletosTue, 23 Nov 2021 12:00:00 -0000
The Psychological Toll of Inflation | Vincent Deluard
We're heading for an inflationary decade that will change society as we know it. That's according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc,who argues inflation is not transitory as many insist but rather a feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks' Jack Farley 5 reasons why high prices are no longer the cure to high prices, including today's tight labor market, the flurry of post-Covid spending packages, and China's withdrawal from its role as an exporter of deflation. Deluard argues that inflation itself is inflationary; while soaring commodity prices, supply chains bottlenecks, and excessive stimulus are undoubtedly the immediate drivers of the current spike in prices, the fundamental driver of secular inflation is an insidious increase in our collective preference for the present.Fri, 19 Nov 2021 12:00:00 -0000
How To Spot Overvalued Companies | Tobias Carlisle
Tobias Carlisle, Portfolio Manager at Acquirers Funds, joins Jack Farley on this sixth episode of Forward Guidance to explain why he believes quality companies are being serially undervalued. Carlisle argues that the equity market assigns far too high of a value on fast-growing stocks, and far too-little of a value on companies whose revenues are growing slowly but whose return on capital is very high and whose balance sheets are pristine. Carlisle shares with Farley the methodology and structure of of his value funds, The Acquirers Fund ($ZIG) and the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value ETF ($DEEP), and he shares his vision for the future of value investing.Fri, 12 Nov 2021 11:55:00 -0000
Is Inflation Overhyped? | Eric Basmajian
Is the 40-year era of falling bond yields and low inflation coming to an end? That is the question investors have been asking themselves for months, and now that October's CPI reading hit its highest level since 1991, it is a query that can no longer be avoided. Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research is confident that all this anxiety is unnecessary. On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Basmajian tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rate of inflation will soon relent, and why he thinks the bull market in bonds is nowhere close to over. Pointing to the fall in economic growth rates as measured by industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income, Basmajian argues that an overweight allocation to Treasury bonds will protect investors from a slowdown in growth, as can be seen by the rolling over of coincident factors such as industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income. Basmajian explores particularly explosive parts of the Consumer Price Index like durable goods and rent, and he explains his long-term view that aging populations will ensure low bond yields in the United States just as they did in Europe and Japan. Basmajian's article on demographics: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/the-global-demographic-vortex Basmajian's article on rent inflation: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/are-you-worried-about-rent-inflation The Dallas Fed's paper on rent inflation: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0824Fri, 05 Nov 2021 11:00:00 -0000
Deconstructing Macro Narratives About Inflation, Bonds, and Bitcoin | Huw Roberts, Quant Insight
The world of macro investing is full of narratives: that a rising dollar threatens emerging market stocks and commodity prices; that rising bond yields imperil growth stocks but buoy value stocks; and that inflation is bad for Tesla, good for gold, and great for Bitcoin. There is more than a grain of truth to these mantras, but they miss the complex interplay of macro variables. On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley investigates these sacred cows of macro to see if they are a little shaky on their legs in a man vs. machine conversation with Huw Roberts, head of analytics at Quant Insight.Tue, 02 Nov 2021 11:00:00 -0000
Hunting for Hidden Financial Risks | Stephen Clapham
Do balance sheets matter? Do cash flows matter? In a world where asset prices are driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, the answer can seem to be yes. But since this environment gives companies license to embroider their finances, the ability to spot their accounting sleight-of-hand is of immense value to investors. Today on the third episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes Stephen Clapham, forensic accountant and founder of Behind the Balance Sheet. Clapham shows the most common instances of financial legerdemain and gives in depth analysis of companies such as Tesla, Ferrari, and The Hut Group.Fri, 29 Oct 2021 12:59:46 -0000
The Global Energy Crisis, Explained | Warren Pies
The world faces an energy crisis that threatens to stop the economic recovery in its tracks. On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Jack Farley to explain the root causes of soaring prices of oil and natural gas. Pies argues that the world is entering a regime of secular inflation that will have profound implications for investors, such as turning the correlation between stocks and bonds from negative to positive. Pies shares his views on real assets and explains why he thinks Bitcoin will likely continue to outperform gold at least over the short-term. PIes challenges mainstream narratives about Bitcoin such as the stock-to-flow model as well its being uncorrelated with other risk assets.Wed, 27 Oct 2021 16:09:47 -0000
