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Investing | Podcast Archives (The Vault)


Forward Guidance

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 17:47:00 -0000

Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 Everything Bubble Thinks VC Valuations Are Reasonable | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Midas website: https://midas.app/ Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwa Fabrice Grindas website: https://fabricegrinda.com/ Fabrice Grinda on Twitter https://x.com/fabricegrinda Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro (05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000 (07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021 (11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real) (16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This? (19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical (21:19) VanEck Ad (21:59) Palantir and Anduril (26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S. (30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022 (33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI) (36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto (39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain (44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis (47:50) Tether and Circle (49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.) (51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore (53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare (57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon? (58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas (59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc. (01:04:27) FedNow (01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem? (01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk (01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024 (01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech (01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 18 Jun 2024 22:50:00 -0000

Citrini on 2024 Election Portfolio Construction And AI Mania


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7 Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary Citrini, Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now (07:21) Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market? (20:04) VanEck Ad (20:44) Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations (26:18) Fannie Mae and Glass Producers (28:34) Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks (29:48) Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners (33:41) Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump (37:07) Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025) (40:13) China (46:32) Trump on Crypto (48:15) Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why? (54:12) Tarriff Basket (56:05) Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) (58:31) Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company (01:01:40) The Hottest New Coding Language Is English (01:06:21) Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed (01:09:32) Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished (01:12:43) What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks? (01:19:03) China's AI Stocks (01:34:54) Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now (01:37:18) Hedging Via The VIX (01:42:34) Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 17 Jun 2024 17:52:00 -0000

Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesnt Care About Feds Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachmans Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Eric Pachman on Twitter https://x.com/EricPachman Follow Bancreek on Twitter https://x.com/bancreek Bancreeks CPI tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/checking-the-tape-may-2024-cpiu Bancreeks PCE tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/april-2024-pce-update Bancreeks labor market tree map: https://www.bancreek.com/p/us-employment-data-treemap Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) The U.S. Labor Market (03:57) Tree Map Of Where New U.S. Jobs Are Being Created (It's A LOT In Healthcare and Government Sector) (19:50) VanEck Ad (23:17) The Growth In U.S. Government Jobs (28:39) U.S. Healthcare Industry Is Incentivized For High Prices And High Job Growth Is A Consequence (45:00) Homebuilding, Oil & Gas, and Retail (52:11) Inflation Masterclass: Differences Between CPI & PCE (01:11:35) Healthcare in PCE & CPI (01:28:46) With Housing Inflation Where It Is, It Is Nearly Statistically Impossible For Inflation To Be At Or Below The Fed's Target of 2% __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 13 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Growth Scare Hits U.S. Economy | Barry Knapp on Feds Quadrilemma, Lehman Brothers, and Job Market


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Barry Knapp on Twitter https://x.com/barryknapp?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:37) The Fed's Quadrilemma (09:46) The Fed's Views Of The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve (34:06) VanEck Ad (34:46) The Slow Death Of The Interbank Lending Market (AKA Fed Funds Market) (38:27) Fed Should Adopt Once More A "Bills-Only" Policy (43:21) Lehman: A Retrospective (48:47) Fannie & Freddie's Role In Facilitating The Growth Of Subprime Securitized Products (50:46) Moral Hazard In The Banking System Before The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 (01:02:48) Lehman's Biggest Exposure Was Commercial Real Estate (CRE & CMBS), Not Subprime Residential (RMBS) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 12 Jun 2024 22:27:00 -0000

Get Used to 3-4% Inflation and 4-5% Interest Rates | Jim Bianco on Feds June Meeting and Resilient U.S. Economy


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter @biancoresearch Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 17:39 VanEck Ad __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 10 Jun 2024 19:42:00 -0000

Secrets of the Federal Reserves Unconventional Monetary Policy | William English, former Director of Division of Monetary Affairs for the Fed Board of Governors, on Quantitative Easing (QE) and Forward Guidance


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. William Englishs work at the Yale Program on Financial Stability: https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-b-english William Englishs co-authored new book, Monetary Policy Responses to Post-Pandemic Inflation: https://cepr.org/about/news/press-release-new-cepr-ebook-monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation William Englishs co-authored Chapter on the Feds Balance Sheet: https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781800375321/book-part-9781800375321-7.xml William Englishs 2012 paper on the rationale and effects of QE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-federal-reserve39s-large-scale-asset-purchase-programs-rationale-and-effects.htm Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/interest-rate-risks-and-bank-equity-valuations.htm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) Fiscal Policy & Monetary Policy Never Really Were Separated. But It Would Nice If They Were (03:49) Do High Interest Rates Dissuade Government Borrowing? (07:09) The Fed Doesn't Like To Discuss Fiscal Policy (09:53) The Fed's Balance Sheet Expansion of 2020 & 2021 (13:57) The Effects of Quantitative Easing (QE), In Theory And Practice (18:59) I Don't Remember Us (The Fed) Thinking A Lot About Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) (23:41) VanEck Ad (24:22) The October 2008 Decision To Allow The Fed To Pay Interest On Reserves Assisted the Implementation of Quantitative Easing (QE), Which Began ~1 Month Later (29:15) The Striking Thing About The Asset Purchases Was The Size (32:32) Forward Guidance vs. QE: Which Is More Powerful, And Which Has More Knock-on Effects? (36:27) Forward Guidance Is More Powerful When Initial Market Expectations About Future Policy Rates Are Incorrect (44:37) Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework Adopted By The Fed In 2020 (52:48) Fast QE & Slow QT = Secular Rise In Size of Fed Balance Sheet (57:27) Fed's Decision To Slow Pace of QT Was Due To Desire To Avoid a "Snafu" In Money Markets Such As In September 2019 (01:02:36) The Bernanke Doctrine: Should Interest Rate Policy & Balance Sheet Policy Always Be Pointed In The Same Direction? (01:07:12) If Balance Sheet Policy Is Moving The Opposite Direction Of Interest Rate Policy, Does That Weaken The Signaling Impact Of Balance Sheet Policy? (01:11:50) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR) (01:19:34) Impact Of Interest Rate Movements On Bank Equity Valuations __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 06 Jun 2024 19:01:00 -0000

Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time)


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://x.com/PPGMacro Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) China Exporting Deflationary Pressure (05:20) "Froth" In Commodities (11:27) The Future Of Fiscal Policy In The U.S. (19:41) VanEck Ad (20:21) How Forward Looking Will Central Bankers Be? (34:35) Chinese National Accounts And Flows (41:21) War And Finance (45:30) Bank of Japan (54:57) Bond Market & Fixed-Income Trades (01:06:16) Currency Trades on The Yen & Yuan __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 05 Jun 2024 14:51:00 -0000

The Modular Integration Spectrum | Keone & Zon


In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tuning in! - - Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@expansionpod Subscribe on Apple: http://apple.co/4bGKYYM Subscribe on Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3Vaubq1 Follow Zon: https://x.com/ItsAlwaysZonny Follow Keone: https://x.com/keoneHD Follow Rex: https://x.com/LogarithmicRex Follow nosleepjon: https://x.com/nosleepjon Follow Expansion: https://x.com/ExpansionPod_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (03:24) Modular vs Integrated (11:47) Who are Appchains for? (28:58) Composability in Modular World (36:15) Monad's Endgame (39:47) Importance of Decentralization (48:05) Building Web3 Community -- Disclaimer: Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation. Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Tue, 04 Jun 2024 18:04:00 -0000

Jens Nordvig: Days of Japans Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) Are Numbered


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://x.com/jnordvig ExAnte Data on Twitter https://x.com/ExanteData MarketReader on Twitter https://x.com/MarketReaderInc Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) Japan (11:48) Wages Are Rising In Japan (16:45) The Effective End Of Yield Curve Control (YCC) In Japan (22:57) When Will The Bank of Japan Raise Interest Rates? (25:03) VanEck Ad (26:43) How High Will The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Go? (33:12) Jens' View On The Japanese Yen (56:00) Jens' Updated Views On U.S. Dollar And U.S. Rates __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 01 Jun 2024 18:44:00 -0000

The Inflation Paradox: Inflation Is Still A Problem | Weekly Roundup


Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 31 May 2024 16:41:00 -0000

Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now)


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://x.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Jason Shapiro website https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/ Jason Shapiro YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@crowdedmarketreport Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Jason Is "Neutral" On Stocks (03:14) If Stocks Don't Rally On A Lower-Than-Expected PCE Number, There's Trouble (06:30) Copper Has Become "The Favorite Trade On The Planet" (13:00) Central Banks Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner (20:50) "I Would Not Be Super Aggressive Here" (22:37) VanEck Ad (23:17) Jack's Push-Back Against "The Endgame" Take (26:31) Trading Off A Macro View Is Dangerous As Hell (27:37) Nvidia: The Mag One (36:49) Bond Market Positioning (41:10) U.S. Government Is Running A Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Deficit (43:50) Jason Doesn't Trade On His Macro View Of Money-Printing Endgame, In The Same Way That A Profitable Sportsbetter From New York Doesn't Bet On The Knicks (44:56) Barron's Roundtable Portfolio Is Up 2% This Year (Compared to 12% S&P 500) (51:31) Jason's View Of Market Breadth (56:49) Jason Is "Not A Big Believer In Chinese Stocks" (01:06:15) Babyish Sentiment (People Freaking Out About Stock Market Being 5% Off Its Highs) Is Probably A Bullish Sign Argues Jason (01:09:06) On A Short-Term Basis Jason Prefers Bonds To Stocks. What Would Have To Happen For That To Change? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 30 May 2024 17:44:00 -0000

Jack Ryan on The Housing Cartel That's Stifling The American Economy


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jack Ryans book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bringing-Adam-Smith-into-the-American-Home/Jack-Ryan/9798888451946 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) The Residential Agency Brokerage Business Is The Largest Cartel In The U.S. Argues Jack Ryan (18:01) Is This Legal? (23:24) Role of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) (28:32) Zillows Business Model (35:24) VanEck Ad (36:04) Rexs Plans To Go Public Disintegrated After Material Slowdown In Business Upon Zillow Change (39:39) Long And Short Ideas If Brokerage Fees Were To Go Down (44:26) If Brokerage Is Such A Good Business, Where Are All The Excess Profits? (48:40) How Zillows Business Decision May Have Impacted Rex Homes (54:11) Rexs Lawsuit Against Zillow, NAR, and Trulia (01:05:55) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Has A Grip On Washington DC (01:11:59) Closing Thoughts On Strength Of U.S. Housing Market __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 30 May 2024 13:41:00 -0000

In This Economy? | Kyla Scanlon


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Kyla Scanlons Book, In This Economy? https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/ Follow Kyla Scanlon on Twitter https://x.com/kylascan Follow Kyla Scanlon on TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan Kyla Scanlons website https://kylascanlon.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) In This Economy? (07:44) How Are The Vibes Right Now (11:43) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (14:21) VanEck Ad (15:02) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (continued) (19:45) Declinism & Doomerism (27:23) Wealth & Income Inequality In The U.S. (32:46) Political Polarization (34:16) The Origin Of Money (36:10) MMT & Debt (40:48) Elder Care & Child Care Costs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 23 May 2024 18:25:00 -0000

James Fishback: Inside The Head Of Macro Dispute That Has Captivated The Hedge Fund World


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Views expressed by James Fishback in this interview are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Jack Farley, Forward Guidance, Blockworks, or any other associated parties. Although the title head of macro plays a central role in this ongoing legal dispute, James Fishback notes in this interview that his complaint also concerns his role in Greenlights macro returns during his employment. Recorded the evening of May 22, 2024. James Fishback vs. Greenlight Capital: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rGPZD1CfIoZE/v0 Greenlight Capital vs. James Fishback: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r61keEZ5nJ1k/v0 Follow James Fishback on Twitter https://x.com/j_fishback Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:08) Job Offer And Title (12:31) When Did James First Consider Himself To Be The Head of Macro? (20:21) Greenlight's Two Loans To Fishback (Totaling $337,346.12 Before Accrued Interest, Totaling $345,698.65 After Accrued Interest) (23:48) Van Eck Ad (24:28) How To Define "Running Macro Investing" (31:04) Written Evidence Of Greenlight Employees Referring To James As The "Head Of Macro" (50:15) James Considers David Einhorn's "Tweet Heard Round The World" an "Insult" And "A Lie" (56:52) Fishback: "I've Always Had The Itch To Be Entrepreneurial" (58:04) James' Resignation From Greenlight In Early August 2023 (01:02:23) Fishback: A Billionaire Demanding That A Public University Take Down Content From A Student Organization Is A "Flagrant Violation Of The First Amendment" (01:03:23) Political Differences Between James Fishback And David Einhorn (01:10:17) James Fishback's Market Views: The Fed's "Lemonhead Problem" (01:14:07) Fishback: Fixed-Rate Liabilities And Floating-Rate Assets Means Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Have Actually Been Net Stimulative (01:19:17) Higher For Longer (01:27:05) Why James Thinks Donald Trump Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election (01:35:08) James' Bullish View On USD / JPY (Taking Advantage of Forward Curve) (01:42:12) Fishback's View Of U.S. Stock Market, AI, And Microsoft (01:46:37) Options & Path Dependency (01:48:29) View On Long-Term Bonds (Duration) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 20 May 2024 17:43:00 -0000

Mel Mattison: Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Follow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1 Mel Mattisons book https://www.melmattison.com/quoz Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) Mels Background (04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years) (06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market (11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook (14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods Sterling Standard (17:36) Offshore Dollars (Eurodollars) (24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s (27:56) VanEck Ad (28:38) Why Now? (37:01) Great Depression (43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues (48:30) Isnt There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)? (59:14) Timing: 2027 (01:04:52) Social Security Funding (01:17:01) Gold and Inflation (01:28:22) Mels Book, QUOZ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 May 2024 14:50:00 -0000

Nick Givanovic: Treasury Bonds Are Historically Unattractive To Leveraged Investors


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Nick Givanovic on Twitter https://twitter.com/nickgiva1 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise (05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure (06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons (21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions (25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish (26:13) VanEck Ad (27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry? (28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia (33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert? (39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely) (54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market (01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks (01:07:49) The Labor Market (01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 14 May 2024 11:00:00 -0000

Why The Dollar Will Be The Last Man Standing Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Keith Dicker on Twitter https://twitter.com/IceCapGlobal Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (01:07) An Overview Of Currencies (09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge (20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe (25:41) Economic Outlook (29:27) VanEck Ad (30:28) (34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies (36:23) Emerging Market Currencies (42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit (45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007 (49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY) (01:00:27) View On Stock Market (01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 May 2024 11:00:00 -0000

Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket (02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far (06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect (08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises (11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can (14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector? (21:43) VanEck ad (22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things (25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing? (26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy (29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market (32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off) (37:16) Macro Carry Strategies (42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields) (44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 06 May 2024 20:03:00 -0000

Andy Constan: The Bond Market Will Take The Stock Market Down With It


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Two Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2Graybeards Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:16) The Script (02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes (04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession (07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market? (17:13) VaEck Ad (18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500) (22:35) Stock Bond Correlation (30:17) May Fed Meeting (31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts) (33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year (34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy (39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks? (41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise (44:53) The Japanese Yen (46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States (47:37) Chinese Equity Market (49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 May 2024 18:03:00 -0000

Investing For A Recession-Free Future | Vincent Deluard on Secularly-High Inflation, Chinas Currency Crisis, and The Long-Term Debt Cycle


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:50) Does China Face A Choice Between Deflation And Devaluation? (19:38) VanEck Ad (20:39) The Long-Term Debt Cycle (29:30) How To Invest For A Recession Free Future (34:40) Lags In Healthcare And Shelter Measures of Inflation (42:03) The Fed (55:20) Age Of Secularly High Inflation (01:04:20) The Japanese Yen (01:17:20) Asset Allocation Within Equity Space __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 01 May 2024 22:35:00 -0000

Powells Last Stand | Danielle DiMartino Booth on May Fed Meeting 2024


For access to 20% discount to annual subscription of Danielle DiMartino Booths Daily Feather: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/forward Or use code FORWARD at checkout. Deal expires on May 23, 2024. 20% discount applies to first year subscription. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) The QT Taper (05:25) Was The May FOMC Meeting A Dovish or a Hawkish Meeting? (09:01) The Fed Is Now Focusing On The Softening Labor Market, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth (22:53) U.S. Economy Entered Recession In October, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth (29:53) Consumer Spending (33:11) Layoffs in 2024 (36:22) New Neutral Rate Of Interest (38:32) Private Equity & Private Credit (47:07) The Bernanke Doctrine (51:24) Basel III Endgame (56:33) Dissents __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 30 Apr 2024 18:05:00 -0000

The Crypto Endgame in 2024 | Fireside Chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund


This is a paid sponsorship on behalf of Van Eck Associates Corporation. Todays episode of Forward Guidance is a special fireside chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund. Kanade shares his philosophy for investing in crypto, and discusses his views on Prior to joining VanEck, Mr. Kanade worked as a Credit Portfolio Manager at Millennium Management. Pranavs Substack: https://killerapps.substack.com/ __ Follow Pranav Kanade on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneckpk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Kanade's Journey Into Crypto (10:43) Kanade's Investment Philosophy (13:55) Is Crypto In A New Bull Market? (35:32) Leverage And Funding Rates (38:01) How Macro (And The Federal Reserve) Impacts Crypto (48:45) Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) (52:42) Tesla (54:54) Crypto Venture Capitalists (VCs) (58:15) Eth vs. Sol (01:01:12) At This Stage, Most AI Crypto Things Is "Nonsense" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 25 Apr 2024 14:19:00 -0000

The Stock Market Will Melt-Up As Inflation Resurges | Harris Kupperman


This week Harris Kupperman returns to the show for a discussion on how he is thinking about markets in 2024. Expecting bonds to continue selling off, will equity markets crumble or continue to melt up as fiscal dominance takes the reigns? Harris then shares his thoughts on some of the best opportunities he is seeing in markets such as oil, gold miners, uranium & more. Enjoy! -- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. -- Follow Harris: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Nobody's Ready For Higher Inflation (02:59) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024? (05:26) Gold (09:25) Oil (17:04) VanEck Ad (18:07) The Uranium Trade (30:37) Gaining Gold Exposure vs Owning The Miners (37:06) The A.I Trade & Investing In Your Circle Of Competence (39:59) Bitcoin (42:58) The Bond Market Sell-Off Can Continue -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 22 Apr 2024 14:00:00 -0000

Can The U.S Handle High Interest Rates Past 2024? | Ben Miller


This week Ben Miller Fundrise Co-Founder and CEO joins the show. We begin by discussing the U.S public debt problem as debt to GDP remains elevated over 100%. For the second half of the conversation, we deep dive into the current state of the U.S real estate market focusing primarily on CRE. Enjoy! -- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. -- Follow Ben: https://twitter.com/BenMillerise Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The U.S Debt Problem (08:25) Private vs Public Debt (15:02) VanEck Ad (16:05) Can The U.S Handle Higher Interest Rates Past 2024? (31:22) Commercial Real Estate & The Debt Duration Reset (35:26) The Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb (47:02) State Of The Housing Market (49:24) Prices Are Not At Distressed Levels... Yet (56:03) The Bull Case For CRE (01:05:59) The Real Estate Sector Is Praying For A Recession (01:07:28) Lending & Private Credit (01:12:16) What Happens If Rates Stay Higher For Longer? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 21 Apr 2024 20:03:00 -0000

Chris Whalen: Higher For Longer Interest Rate Regime Is Bad For Banks


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:37) Banking Net Interest Income Is "Flat To Down" (04:26) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (13:26) VanEck Ad (14:26) (17:31) Consumer Deposits Have Become "Toxic" (20:07) Schwab (22:15) Chris Expects Mid-Size Banks To "Do Better Than The Big Guys" Next Year (24:43) If There's No Recession, Are Bank Stocks Still Cheap? (27:41) Higher For Longer Will Continue To Be Bad For Banks' Core Business of Taking Deposits And Making Loans (30:19) Bank of America Should Be "Spanked" (32:59) Only A Few Fed Cuts Are Needed To Improve Banks' Position (35:13) Consumer Credit Continues To Be Fine ("Not Even At 2019 Levels") (37:10) Credit Risk Issues For Banks Are Primarily In CRE (38:12) New York Community Bank
Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:55:00 -0000

The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and George Robertson of The Monetary Fronteir have two things in common: they both correctly predicted the renewed bull market in stocks and they both have been guests on The Forward Guidance podcast. That is where the similarities end, as Michael and George have entirely different explanations for what is driving the surge in equity prices. While Michael is renowned for his models on Global Liquidity and closely tracks the changes in central bank balance sheets (most notably the Feds), George dismisses the Fed entirely and thinks that monetary authorities have effectively zero influence on the economy and stock market. What ensues is a heated debate not just about what is driving the stock market and economy but about the very nature of money and credit creation itself. Recorded on April 10, 2024. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://twitter.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Michaels Substack https://t.co/7jRGW9iR0S Georges Substack https://themonetaryfrontier.substack.com/ Michaels Book https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) Jack's Intro (02:28) Michael's Opening Statement (06:09) George's Opening Statement (18:17) The Draining of The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (24:59) VanEck Ad (26:03) (28:38) The Portfolio Rebalancing Theory (I.E. How Quantitative Easing (QE) Theoretically Works) (45:21) Duration Impact of U.S. Treasury Issuing Longer-Maturity Paper (51:39) Spread Between Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Yield And 10-Year Treasury Yield (01:12:09) There's A Distortion In The Yield Curve, That's For Sure" (01:17:47) Beyond The Fed's Balance Sheet (01:23:18) Jack's Comment On Cause And Effect (01:25:07) Views On Markets: George And Michael Remain Very Bullish __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 15 Apr 2024 20:09:00 -0000

Mark Dow: The Bears Are Making Stuff Up About Fed/Treasury Plumbing To Excuse The Fact That They Were Wrong


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Mark Dow has had experience in the global monetary system, having worked at the IMF, as an advisor to three Presidents, and at many central banks around the world. But he thinks that generally, monetary plumbing is given too much credit for the gyrations of asset prices and economic outcomes. He joins Forward Guidance to share why. Recorded on April 9, 2024. __ Follow Mark Dow on Twitter https://twitter.com/mark_dow Follow Marks Other Account, Behavioral Macro https://twitter.com/BehavioralMacro Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) How Much Does Monetary Policy Actually Matter? (07:27) The Fed Matters In A Crisis (12:11) Psychology Impacts Stock Market Valuations More Than Interest Rates (16:41) ...But Interest Rate Fall Stimulates Housing Mortgage Credit Creation, Doesn't It? (20:48) Mark Argues Mortgage Spread Not Very Affected By Quantitative Easing (QE) - Jack Pushes Back (26:11) VanEck Ad (27:13) (30:51) QE's Impact on Bond Yields And The Difficulty Of Determining What Is Cause And What Is Effect (39:39) The Wealth Effect Has Been Very Weak (41:36) Mark Argues The Bulk Of Inflation Was Caused By Transitory Supply-Side Factors (51:29) Federal Reserve's Role In U.S. Treasury Market (58:54) Mark's View On The Narrative That Fed Will Monetize U.S. Fiscal Deficits (01:00:51) Gold and Real Rates (01:08:04) Changes In Monetary System Since 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (01:14:51) Fed Balance Sheet Policy DOES Matter For Institutional Fixed-Income Portfolios Sensitive To A Few Basis Points In Bond Spreads (01:18:49) Mark's Market Views: Is He Still Bullish On Stocks? (01:21:34) Mark's Trading Framework Using Technicals and Behavioral Economics __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 08 Apr 2024 21:07:00 -0000

The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of Engineered Yield


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Jonathan Treussard of Treussard Capital Management joins Forward Guidance to help define what a bubble is. By his strict definition, nothing qualifies right now. But as money flows into risk assets, valuations become stretched. Treussard has trouble with the high valuations in the U.S. market, and sees opportunities in the cheaper European and Japanese markets. He also shares his views on the risk of the engineered yield that comes from strategies that sell options explicitly or implicitly. Filmed on April 2, 2024. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us About Treussard Capital Management: https://www.treussard.com/ 2004 Paper on Bubbles with Earl Thompson and Charles Hickson: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/workingpapers/wp836.pdf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Hallmarks Of A Financial Bubble: New Technology and Valuations Stretching Far Beyond Fundamentals (05:24) How Bubbles Remake Social Orders (07:25) Credit Bubbles Vs. Equity Bubbles (10:00) The Rise of Private Credit (11:44) In Wealth Management, Private Credit Tends To Be "More Sold Than Bought" (15:25) Private Credit Is "Concerning" But "Not A Bubble" (17:05) U.S. Stocks Are Expensive (19:55) Trade Wars & Geopolitical Blockades Are A Serious Risk To Nvidia (26:49) Europe and Japan (29:08) VanEck Ad (30:10) T-Bill And Chill Has Been Drastically Outperformed By Stock Market Beta (31:03) Investment Framework For The New Cold War (43:58) How Option Theory Applies To Economics, Investing, And Life (49:35) Jonathan's Work As A Risk Manager During 2008 (55:53) Beware "Engineered Yield" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 04 Apr 2024 19:00:00 -0000

Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash Bloodbath On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker moving Chinese IPOs to a corporate financier for an electric vehicle producer. The rodent shares his views on tires, refiners, and gold miners, and makes the case that cheaply produced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) will unleash a bloodbath on the middle-market global EV market. Recorded on April 2, 2024. __ Blind Squirrel Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/SquirrelMacro Blind Squirrel Macro Substack https://t.co/mgOvPYwOAi Latest piece on Gold: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/april-fool-or-a-hamlet-moment Piece on Refiners: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/a-cracking-sunset?r=9ef2u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Piece on Ben Grahams Electric Car: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/acorn-ben-grahams-electric-car Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The Squirrel's Background As An Investment Banker (03:14) The Chinese IPO Boom Of 2000s (13:51) The Squirrel's Current View On Chinese Economy and Stock Market (20:00) Is The Chinese Real Estate Crisis Just Getting Started? (23:55) VanEck Ad (24:57) The Squirrel's Experience In The Electric Vehicle (EV) Business (29:49) China Will Unleash "Bloodbath" On Global EV Auto Market (36:07) Toyota Is Having The Last Laugh (40:52) For Auto Stocks, The Squirrel Prefers Price To Sales (44:56) Many EV Companies That Went Public In 2020 & 2021 Were Bubbles And Frauds (50:18) Tesla (53:51) Old School Auto Manufacturers (Ford, GM, Volkswagen, etc.) (54:40) Squirrel's Bull Thesis On Tire Producers (01:02:55) The Offshore Oil Thesis (01:12:50) Macro (01:18:26) Squirrel's Inflationista Thesis (01:22:12) Options __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 01 Apr 2024 22:00:00 -0000

The "Beijing Put" | Jason Hsu's Bull Case For Chinese Stocks


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jason Hsu of Rayliant joins Forward Guidance to share his view on the particulars of the Chinese equity market. Hsu argues that the brutal bear market is close to over and makes the bull case for onshore Chinese stocks. Recorded on March 28, 2024. __ Jason Hsu on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonchsu/ About Rayliant https://rayliant.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The "Brutal" Bear Market In Chinese Equities (12:49) In China, It's Not The Homebuyers Who Are Indebted... It's The Builders (aka Developers) (19:31) Spillovers Of China's Real Estate Correction (23:41) Impact of Real Estate Issues On China's Banking System (26:39) Beijing's Biggest Fixation: How To Avoid Japanese Real Estate Bust Of 1990s (33:58) Regulatory Scrutiny On Tech And Other Industries Has Been Reduced (38:09) VanEck Ad (38:52) 5-10 Years From Now, People Will Look At Now AS Bottom In Chinese Equities (39:55) China's Ambition To Move Up The Value Chain (43:04) Just How Cheap Are Chinese Stocks? (43:59) Who Are The Investors In The Chinese Stock Market? (46:08) Immense Pessimism Has Gripped Chinese Stock Investors (47:16) What Causes Chinese Stocks To Go Up Or Down? (49:06) China's Role In Emerging Market Equity Portfolios (51:50) What Moves Emerging Market (EM) Stocks As A Category? (55:53) Latin American, Middle East, and Africa (57:23) The Role of Diversification and "Quantamental" Analysis (01:04:45) State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) - What Do Investors Really Own? (01:08:29) Biggest Overweights. (Mexico) and Underweights (India) (01:11:00) Mechanics Of "The Beijing Put" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 29 Mar 2024 15:00:00 -0000

Inflation Isnt Going Away And Investors Own The Wrong Assets | Larry McDonald on When Markets Speak


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Lawrence McDonald, New York Times Bestselling author and founder of The Bear Traps Report returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book, When Markets Speak. McDonald argues that the world is on the precipice of a higher-inflation regime that will cause a multi-trillion dollar migration of capital from technology stocks to producers of natural resources such as oil, gas, copper, Uranium, and gold. Filmed on March 27, 2024. __ Follow Lawrence McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/Convertbond McDonalds latest book, When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities/dp/0593727495 McDonalds first book, A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=9F5dM&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=wepDC&pd_rd_r=e57c52f3-38c7-4f25-bf51-8a804dfd2f13&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:58) The End Of Austerity: Huge Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus Has Created A New Inflationary Age (08:07) A Multi-Trillion Migration Of Capital Is Underway, Argues McDonald (08:46) A New Commodity Bull Market Is Forming (15:58) Oil & Gas (18:09) Uranium (21:22) China (27:17) Is NVIDIA A Bubble? (33:22) VanEck Midroll (34:05) What This Means For Broad Index Investors (38:37) Financial Repression And Debt Jubilee (48:16) The Banking System (50:26) Recession Risk (01:01:55) How To Listen When Markets Speak __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 28 Mar 2024 11:00:00 -0000

Joseph Wang, Michael Howell, Julian Brigden, and Jonny Matthews on 2024 Macro Outlook | Blockworks Digital Asset Summit (Recorded March 19, 2024)


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ This is a recorded version of Jacks macro panel at the 2024 Digital Asset Summit hosted by Blockworks, recorded in London on March 19, 2024. Macro analysts (and previous Forward Guidance guests) Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, and Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro (ex-Brevan Howard) share their outlook on the global economy, stocks, bonds, currencies, and Bitcoin. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Josephs work https://fedguy.com/ Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Julians work https://t.co/qdroC4L86V Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Michaels work https://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Jonnys work https://super-macro.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Will Stocks Continue To Crush Bonds? (07:24) U.S. Economy Continues To Outperform Rest Of World (12:37) Financial Conditions Are Very Loose Despite Fed's Rapid Rise In Interest Rates (17:52) VanEck Ad (22:57) Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Continuing To Rise (30:17) Interest Rates And The Dollar (31:47) Views On Crypto (38:33) Concluding Prediction On Stocks Bonds And Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 26 Mar 2024 16:59:00 -0000

Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And Chinas Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Russell Napier, founder of Orlock Advisors and publisher of The Solid Ground Newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to share how Chinas decision to peg its currency the Chinese Yuan in 1994 at an artificially low rate had enormous consequences on worlds monetary system, and why China may be soon be forced to make a monetary policy decision regarding its currency which may have similarly large consequences for the globe. Filmed on March 13, 2024. Russell is the author of two books, Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms and The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt. __ Russell Napiers newsletter, The Solid Ground: https://russellnapier.co.uk/ Russells first book, Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms: https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Bear-Lessons-Streets-bottoms/dp/0857195220/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Russell Napiers second book, The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt: https://www.amazon.com/Asian-Financial-Crisis-1995-98-Birth/dp/0857199145/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) How To Spot A Change In Monetary Policy (03:50) Birth Of The Age Of Debt (08:43) Chinese Surpluses Are Getting Smaller (14:10) China's Choice Between Deflation Or Devaluation (18:23) China's Growth Requires Massive Expansion In Narrow Money (27:10) VanEck Ad (27:53) Is China The Biggest Real Estate Bubble Ever? (30:35) PBOC Likely To Move To Flexible Exchange Rate In Order To Achieve Their Goals In Controlling Price And Quantity of Money (33:53) Is Foreign Lending Contingent Upon U.S. Dollar Reserves? (36:29) The Origin of The Chinese Stock Market In 1992 (39:11) Valuations of China's Stock Market (41:33) Buy Cheap Currencies, Not Cheap Companies (54:11) Napier's Views On Japanese Currency And Stock Market (58:51) The Lessons Of Quantitative Easing (QE) (01:01:27) The Future of Japanese Monetary Policy (01:03:10) The Interest Rate Shock Has Not Broken Something. Why? Will This Continue? (01:06:16) Are Higher Interest Rates Deflationary Or Inflationary? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 18 Mar 2024 13:00:00 -0000

Dr. Ingo Sauer on Hyperinflation, Central Bank Insolvency, and The ECB (European Central Bank)


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Dr. Ingo Sauer of Goethe University Frankfurt joins Forward Guidance to share findings from his 360 paper on Hyperinflation in 1923 and its connection to central bank insolvency. Sauer argues that severe impairment of central bank assets, and not the printing of vast amounts of central bank liabilities (money), was the primary cause of extreme inflation witnessed 101 years ago in Germany, Austria, Hungary and Poland. Sauer inverts the causal line of exchange rate depreciation, money supply increase, and inflation, and he also shares his concern about the current state of the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB). Filmed on March 5, 2024. __ Ingo Sauers YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@wissenhatkeineneigentumeri9889 Ingo Sauers 360 page paper, The Lessons from 1923 for the Euro Area: Enlightening the Dark Side of (In-) Solvent Central Banks Balance Sheets: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4620462 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) Overview Of Dr. Sauer's Theory On The Ultimate Cause of Hyperinflation: Central Bank Insolvency (07:05) Dr. Sauer's Concerns About The Euro (11:22) Setting The Stage For German Hyperinflation in 1923 (14:33) The German Mark During World War I (21:40) The Assets Of The Reichsbank Increasingly Became Dominated By German Government Obligations (Not Commercial Bills / Collateral Advances / Gold) (30:03) Central Bank Insolvency (Not Money Supply Increase) Caused Hyperinflation in 1923 (34:53) VanEck Ad (36:48) Failed Attempts To Stabilize German Mark And Inflation, 1919-1922 (41:44) Reichsbank's Holdings Of German Treasury Bills Highly Correlated To (In)Solvency Factor (45:01) Explaining Sauer's "Solvency Factor" (47:29) The Mark's Short-Lived Rally In 1920 (51:10) Marker (57:09) The Mechanics Of Central Bank Insolvency (59:40) Reichsmark Insolvency Led To Depreciation Of The Mark, Which Led To Hyperinflation (01:02:34) Money Supply Did Not Cause Hyperinflation, Argues Sauer (01:15:09) The Explosion In Reichsbank's Money Supply Was Mostly Paper Cash, Not Bank Reserves (01:23:03) Reparations' Impact On German Solvency (01:27:22) The Rentenmark And The Halting Of German HyperInflation (01:30:47) Central Bank Profits and Yield Curve Dynamics (01:34:58) European Debt Crisis (2009-2015) (01:36:45) Fed As Dealer Of Last Resort, European Central Bank (ECB) As Market Maker Of Last Resort (01:38:06) ECB Is Less A Central Bank And More Of A "Headquarters" For Domestic Euro Central Banks (such as Bank of France, for example) (01:40:23) Origin Of Fed, And Clearinghouse Loan Certificates As National Currency Before The Fed (01:44:18) Why Has ECB Balance Sheet Expansion Post 2008 Coincided With Disinflation (Or Deflation), And Not Hyperinflation? (01:47:44) Sauer's Fears About The ECB And The Euro (02:00:46) The Mechanics Of Monetary Financing (02:18:32) Interest Rate Risk Is Not A Systemic Concern __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 14 Mar 2024 18:44:00 -0000

Nick Halaris: Commercial Real Estate Hanging In There Despite "Crushing" Interest Rate Shock


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ Nick Halaris, President of Metros Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on real estate situation in the U.S. Though the rapid rise in interest rates has rendered many commercial real estate (CRE) deals uneconomic, the fundamentals in multi-family (i.e. apartments) remain strong, notes Halaris, in part due to high levels of immigration. Nonetheless, many new deals are being done at negative leverage - that is to say, the cost of debt exceeds the cap rate on the deal and the propertys cash flows are less than the interest expense. Halaris thinks the sell-off in office might be so bad that the asset class might have bottomed out. He remains very bullish on the single-family housing market. Filmed on March 12, 2024. __ Follow Nick Halaris on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickHalaris Nick Halaris Newsletter Profit + https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/subscribe Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Overview of Commercial Real Estate (04:24) Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) Have Been Stronger Than Expected (06:49) Immigration As A Tailwind For Housing & Multifamily Demand (08:43) Projects Are Being Cancelled Because Of High Rates (11:09) Interest Rate Shock Has Rendered Many Deals Uneconomic (18:58) Potential Value In Office Sector Of Commercial Real Estate (CRE)? (22:22) Nick's Long-Term Bull Thesis For Real Estate (26:25) VanEck Ad (27:11) CRE's Impact On The U.S. Banking System (29:31) Interestingly, Private Credit Funding Has Not Gotten More Expensive (31:28) Nick Is Flipping A House To Stay Busy (Do Not Do This At Home) (34:12) Housing Bull Market Is Fundamentally Different From 2003-2006... Not Speculative Bubble (I.E. Buying To Flip) (38:18) New York Community Bank (NYCB) (59:03) Final Thoughts On Valuation Difference Between Public and Private Real Estate Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 12 Mar 2024 16:00:00 -0000

Liz Ann Sonders: There's No Such Thing As A Typical Interest Rate Cutting Cycle


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook on U.S. equities. Sonders notes that a handful of large cap stocks have been leading the S&P 500 index higher, while the majority of stocks have been underperforming the index. While this so-called breadth weakness occurred at or near stock market peaks of 1999 and 2000, Sonders notes that breadth is strengthening. The phrase Magnificent 7 is near-meaningless since, as of mid-March, the Mag7 includes both the best performing stock in the S&P 500 (Nvidia) and the worst performing stock (Tesla). Sonders argues that there is no such thing as a typical Fed interest rate cutting cycle, and that slower cutting cycles have tended to coincide alongside more bullish stock market action than fast cutting cycles. Filmed on March 4, 2024. __ Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-londonTimestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The Rally In S&P 500 Has Been Ferocious, The Rally In Average Stocks Has Not (04:22) Large Cap Stocks Are Leading The S&P 500 Higher... Smaller Names Have Performed Less Well (09:31) Earnings Growth Is Very Strong (Unlike In 2000) (12:16) Companies' Earnings Guidance Is Less Specific Than Pre-2020 (16:47) Economic Outlook In U.S.: Rolling Re-acceleration (20:13) Labor Market Situation Has Been "Mirror Image" Of What Normally Happens (22:05) This Economic Cycle Has Been An "Orange" Compared To History's "Apples" (22:29) VanEck Ad (24:53) There Is No Such Thing As A "Typical" Fed Rate Cutting Cycle (30:57) Slower Cutting Cycles Have Been Somewhat More Bullish Than Rapid Cutting Cycles (36:27) Artificial Intelligence (AI) (43:17) Quality As A Factor (45:39) Momentum Has Been "Best Performing Factor Year-To-Date" (49:37) Size and Value As Factors __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 08 Mar 2024 16:01:00 -0000

The Fate Of The Fed's Balance Sheet | Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang on Draining of Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility, Timeline of QT Taper, and 2024 Tax Refund Data


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Lou Crandall on Twitter https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Joseph's piece on Real Rates: https://fedguy.com/higher-real-rates-for-longer/ More about Wrightson ICAP: https://www.wrightson.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Reverse Repo Decline Driven By A) Decline In Fed's Balance Sheet And B) Increased Supply Of Treasury Bills And C) Private Repo Market Demand (05:45) The Liquidity Demands Of The Basis Trade (Long Cash Treasurys / Short Treasury Futures) Is Drawing Money Out Of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (12:40) VanEck Ad (13:22) Lou's Accurate Prediction On Why Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Would Not Be Renewed (It Wasn't) (17:10) Fed's Balance Sheet Policy: Quantitative Tightening (QT) (25:30) Summary From Jack (27:01) Money Market Data Could Indicate QT Will Continue For Longer (28:28) DAS Ad (33:14) Interest Rate Outlook On Fed Cutting Cycle (37:17) Inflation And Real Interest Rates (43:43) Potential Government Shutdown In U.S.?? (46:33) Tax Season Approaches! The Plumbing Of Refunds (49:31) Joseph's Closing Thoughts On U.S. Fiscal Situation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 07 Mar 2024 19:04:00 -0000

The Erosion of Institutional Accountability | Dr. Luigi Zingales on Bank Failures, Whistleblowing, and The Fed


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Luigi Zingales on Twitter https://twitter.com/zingales?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow Capitalisn't https://www.capitalisnt.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Is It Time To Investigate The Fed? (01:45) There Needs To Be A Sacrificial Lamb (07:21) Accountability In The Private Sector (11:20) Activist Investors Can Help If Company's Issues Are Financial In Nature (15:49) Potential Solutions: Whistleblowers And Abolition Of NDAs (17:39) VanEck Ad (18:36) Moving Beyond Sarbanes-Oxley (26:26) ESG Space Has Attracted A Lot Of "Charlatans" Precisely Because The Issue Is So Important (33:37) The Future of Financial Technology (FinTech) (36:42) A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Would Be "Much More Efficient" (43:22) With CBDC, All Short-Term Demand Deposits Would Be With Fed, and Commercial Banks Would Fund Themselves With Term Deposits (i.e. CDs) (46:47) On Economics As A Field (48:52) Has U.S. Entered A New Era Of Secularly Higher Growth? (50:07) Are Interest Rates Too Restrictive? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 04 Mar 2024 18:04:00 -0000

Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Markets Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929


Milton Berg, renowned market technician known to viewers for his contrarian bullish call in January of 2023, returns to Forward Guidance with a far less rosy outlook. As of recording on February 28, 2024, Berg is decidedly bearish in the face of a stupendous stock market rally. He sees signs of an exhaustive peak and expects a decline, which could either be a corrective move in the middle of a bull market or the beginning of a true bear market. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton More About Milton Berg: https://www.miltonberg.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Milton's Buy Signals Have Continued To Appear In The Stock Market (06:11) This Bull Market Is Unique In Its Strength, And It Its Weakness (10:53) Indicators That Suggest A Stock Market Top In February 2024 (15:20) Why Milton Is Leaning Bearish (24:05) Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts And Earnings Cycle (Milton Disagrees That These Are Bullish Factors) (30:55) There's Lots Of Momentum In This Market - But It's Not Bullish Momentum (35:28) Banking Index Is Behaving Strangely (40:37) Evidence This Could Be A Blow-Off Top (49:33) VanEck Ad (50:16) This Is Not A Healthy Market (52:34) The Permabears Could Finally Be Right (53:13) Speculation In Blue Chip Companies Is Extreme (Although Speculation In Unprofitable Companies Is Not) (01:00:09) Mind The GAP! (01:05:29) Portrait Of A Sick Market (01:07:22) New Highs In Europe And Japan - Milton Isn't Impressed! (01:10:48) China (01:12:37) Cycle Dates (01:16:54) Climax Top In SuperMicro (SMCI) - Milton Was Long But Has Flipped Short (01:21:31) If There's A New Bear Market In 2024, It Will Probably Cause A Recession (Unlike In 2022) (01:26:35) Milton's Long-Only Portfolio (01:28:26) Milton's Short List Of Overextended Stocks (Including Nvidia) (01:33:12) Would A Forthcoming Sell-off Be A Corrective Move During a Bull Market Or The Beginning Of A New Bear Market? (01:35:29) Alibaba, Paypal, and Berkshire Hathaway (01:36:43) A Review Of The Buy And Sell Signals __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 03 Mar 2024 22:24:00 -0000

Remi Tetot on AI, Crypto, and Uranium


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Remi on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheKingCourt Remis Substack, The Mad King: https://onemadking.substack.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Stock Market Rally Has "Room To Go" But Tetot Is "Cautious" Around Nosebleed Valuations (06:11) Nvidia's Data Center Business Is Cyclical, Notes Tetot (07:53) AI Is A Bit Overhyped, Argues Tetot (18:47) The Business Cycle Is Still Digesting The Excess (21:29) VanEck Ad (22:14) The Fed's Balance Sheet (24:37) When Will The Fed Start To Cut Rates? (33:42) Crypto (38:57) Key Learnings From Last Crypto Cycle (47:35) Uranium (54:56) Remi's Long Idea On Homebuilders __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 29 Feb 2024 20:06:00 -0000

Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Claudia Sahm on Twitter https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023 (03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession (05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points (10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late" (12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market (15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn" (16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed (20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We? (23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed (25:59) VanEck Ad (26:46) Labor Market (29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret (36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer (40:27) The Housing Market (41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again (49:35) Neutral Policy Rate (55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 27 Feb 2024 20:30:00 -0000

Adrian Helfert on Stock/Bond Allocation, Equity Broadening, and Credit Market Richness


Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of Westwood Holdings Group (AUM ~$16B), joins Forward Guidance to share his quantitative approach to asset allocation. He explains why, even with the drastic surge in interest rates, he prefers an overweight allocation to equities over bonds. Filmed on February 21, 2024. __ Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Stocks Vs. Bonds (05:19) Upside Downside Capture On Bonds (08:24) Overweight Stocks Over Bonds (21:44) VanEck Ad (22:29) Stock Market Valuations (30:51) Return Attribution In Equity Portfolio (37:26) Breadth In Stock Market (45:00) Notion of "Equity Duration" Is Mostly Just A Narrative (49:11) Comparisons To Dot Com Bubble (53:40) Bond Market Outlook on Credit & Duration Risk (55:55) The Fed And The Wealth Effect As The "Third Leg Of The Monetary Policy Stool" (57:01) Are Financial Conditions Tight Or Loose? (01:01:52) Investing With An Income Focus __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 26 Feb 2024 15:40:00 -0000

Overheated Stock Market To Correct Before Continuing Rally | Le Shrub on Le Shrub on AI, CRE, and China


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visithttps://vaneck.com/HODLFGto learn more.VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus:https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Le Shrub on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/agnostoxxx Follow VanEck on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March:https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Shrub's Background In Shorting Credit During Great Financial Crisis (05:28) Short Credit Spreads Trade (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (12:14) The Challenges of Shorting An Index (15:26) Have We Seen "Max Stupid" Yet? (23:58) VanEck Ad (21:08) Shrub's Short-Term Call That Stocks Will Correct Mildly (25:33) Why Shrub Thinks Stocks End Up On the Year (28:51) This Is Not 2000, This Is Not 2021, Argues Shrub (34:25) Shrub's Investing Approach: Value, Thematic, Coal, and Digimarc (40:40) Tesla and Google (51:02) Treasury Secretary Yellen Tamagotchi (52:12) Two Types of Inflation: Wealthflation and Plebflation (55:44) How Much Does Market Plumbing Matter? (01:01:29) Is U.S. Treasury Sterilizing QT? (01:07:05) Economic Outlook in U.S. And Europe (01:09:42) How Systemic Are Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Issues? (01:14:48) Banking & CLO Systems (01:17:57) Views on Fed's Interest Rate Policy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 23 Feb 2024 14:44:00 -0000

Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background in Relative Value Credit (02:25) Potential Trouble At Deutsche Pfandbrief Bank (15:03) VanEck Ad (15:45) Liability Structure of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (18:42) The Pfandbrief Market (Different Than Bank Known As "Deutsche Pfandbrief" AKA "PBB") (21:56) Negative Marginal Net Interest Margin Is A Big Problem (23:54) Why Josef Does Not Have A Trade On PBB - Insufficient Liquidity In Options Market (25:23) Bail-in-ability of AT1 Debt (29:59) How This Might Play Out (32:47) Comparison To Greek And Spanish Banks (35:06) Silver Lining: Long-Term Nature of Many of PBB's Liabilities (40:21) Deposit Insurance In Germany & Europe (43:05) How PBB Might (Possibly) Overcome The Challenges It Faces? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 22 Feb 2024 15:49:00 -0000

Swiss Res Patrick Saner on Soft Landing Scenario, Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy, and Inflation Volatility


Patrick Saner, Head of Macro Strategy at Swiss Re, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights on the global economy, interest rates, and central bank policy. Filmed on February 16, 2024. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Patrick Saner on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patrick_saner Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) U.S. Economy Appears Resilient (03:16) Financial Conditions And Neutral Rate (08:)54 Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (QE & QT) (13:32) The Reaction Function Of The European Central Bank (ECB) Has Changed (17:44) VanEck Ad (18:28) Interpreting Ongoing Yield Curve Inversion (20:24) Patrick's Work At Swiss Re (23:24) Inflation Volatility (33:47) Currencies (35:46) European Economy (38:32) Two Consecutive Quarters Of No Growth Does Not Necessarily Indicate A Recession (40:55) Most Common Error In Macro: Mistaking Correlation For Causation (43:16) Soft Landing Is Patrick's Base Case (45:49) Patrick's Prior Work At Swiss National Bank __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 21 Feb 2024 04:21:00 -0000

Paul Sankey: Oil Would Be Below $60 If It Werent For Saudi Production Cuts


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Paul Sankey on Twitter https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Paul Sankey research: https://sankeyresearch.com/ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Oil Market At "Equilibrium" Right Now (08:51) If It Wasn't For Saudi Production Cuts, Oil Would Be Below 60 Dollars, I'm Sure Of It (13:03) U.S. Oil Production Has Exploded (18:25) VanEck ad (19:07) The Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Cycle Has Begun In Oil (Diamondback-Endeavor Deal) (25:40) Importance Of Inventory Quality (And Quantity) (29:00) Management Issues (32:38) Buybacks and Dividends (35:50) Oil Companies With Strongest (And Weakest) Inventories (38:07) Merger Arb In Deals That Haven't Closed (44:43) How AI Will Impact Power Demand (50:55) About Sankey Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 19 Feb 2024 13:12:00 -0000

Secrets of Small Cap Value Investing | Kyle Mowery


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) The Small Cap Value Universe (06:58) Why Did The Value Factor Used To Work, And Why Isn't It Working Now? (11:27) How To Find Great Small Cap Value Stocks (14:45) Finding Asymmetric Opportunities (16:18) VanEck Ad (17:51) Ferroglobe PLC (20:50) ACV Auctions (24:52) I Despise Price / Sales Ratio (27:38) What Makes Some Investments Work, And Others Not Work? (31:17) Look At Managements' Incentives (40:54) Banking Stocks (43:06) Last Time Small Cap Value Stocks Were "All The Rage": Early 2000s (45:17) Has The Rise Of Passive Flows Distorted The Small Cap World? (51:13) Markets Are "Broadly Efficient": Some Value Stocks Are Cheap For A Reason (53:06) How to Avoid "Value Traps" (58:42) How To Generate Short Ideas (01:07:00) The Role of Macro (01:08:37) U.S. Economy Is "Pretty Strong," European Economy Is "In Shambles" (01:10:51) Calumet Specialty Products (01:13:33) Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 16 Feb 2024 21:16:00 -0000

The Rising Risks In The Private Credit Lending Bonanza | Andrzej Skiba


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) What Is Private Credit? (07:51) Private Credit Is Doing The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Finance (16:04) How Will Private Credit Perform If Defaults Pick-Up? (Very Little Data In Previous Cycles Because The Asset Class Has Grown So Much) (19:24) Private Credit Is Very Illiquid (20:54) Debt Covenants In Private Credit Are, Admittedly, Usually Very Strong (26:31) VanEck Ad (27:14) Interplay Between Private Credit and Rest of Fixed Income Universe (32:35) Private Equity Is Using Private Credit To Pay Itself Via Dividend Recaps (35:13) Private Credit Is Refinancing Some Of The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Loan Market, Which Perhaps May Be Bullish For Leveraged Loan (& High-Yield Bond) Market (38:00) Default Outlook In High-Yield Bond And Leveraged Loan Market (43:09) Moderately Bullish View On Duration (I.e. Rates) (58:43) Maturity Wall High-Yield Bond Is Very, Very Termed Out (01:02:56) Opportunities In Securitized Products Market Appear Interesting (01:04:57) Single Borrower Commercial Real Estate Loan Market Offers Interesting Opportunities To Fundamental Credit Investors (01:07:48) Most Common Investing Mistake In Credit: Herd Mentality __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 13 Feb 2024 18:18:00 -0000

Danny Dayan: Reacceleration Risk Threatens Bond Market, Demographics In U.S. Are Inflationary (Not Deflationary)


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Danny Dayan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DannyDayan5 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Recession Is An Overrated Risk (04:33) The Right-Tail Risk: Reaccelerating Inflation (16:18) Will Stocks Continue to Outperform Bonds If Inflation Reaccelerates? (21:25) VanEck Ad (22:13) What Is The Neutral Rate Of Interest? (29:22) Why Are Financial Conditions So Loose? (44:59) "If Economy Stays Hot, I Think There Will Be Zero Rate Cuts This Year" (47:22) Demographics Is Wildly Misunderstood (01:01:20) China (01:04:39) Duration Bubble of 2020 & 2021 Means Losses From Higher Rates Are Borne Not By Borrowers But By Lenders (01:06:19) Danny's Bull Case For The Dollar __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 13 Feb 2024 15:26:00 -0000

Martin Pelletier & Joseph Wang on Stock Market Concentration, Cash-Futures Treasury Basis Trade, Structured Products, and New York Community Bank


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Martin Pelletier on Twitter https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Josephs latest on Cash-Futures Basis Trade: https://fedguy.com/levering-up/ Josephs latest on CBO: https://fedguy.com/sea-change/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:25) VanEck Ad (11:10) New York Community Bank $NYCB (15:34) The Canadian Banking System (22:05) Is Tech Forming A Stock Market Bubble? (33:15) Cash-Futures Basis Trade In Treasury Market (39:41) The Rise of Structured Products In Canada (56:40) Energy Market (01:03:00) Joseph's Views On Powell's 60 Minutes Interview (01:07:40) Bank of Canada Could Cut Interest Rates By More Than The Fed Does In 2024 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 09 Feb 2024 16:57:00 -0000

Chinas Deflation Trap | Brian McCarthy On The Popping Of The Worlds Biggest Bubble Ever


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Brian McCarthy on Twitter https://twitter.com/briangobosox Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps; (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The Chinese Financial System Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme (05:17) The Property Bubble In China Is Popping (It's Still In Early Stages) (11:21) How The Chinese Banking System Works: Window Guidance > Forward Guidance (27:02) VanEck Ad (37:52) Views On The Chinese Stock Market (38:12) The Chinese Yuan (RMB) Must Be Devalued In Order To Stimulate The Chinese Economy (47:11) U.S. China Trade Policy, Under President Biden and Under President Trump (52:03) Much Of China's Bank Equity Is "Going To Be Wiped Out" (57:32) Why Would Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Not Stimulate Its Economy And Avoid Major Slowdown? (01:04:25) McCarthy's Long-Term Thesis On China: "They Will Go The Japan Path" (01:11:37) China's FX Reserves (01:14:06) Why Can't China Reinflate The Property Bubble? (01:17:31) Closing Thoughts On China (01:19:46) Macro Implications Of China's Slowdown On Global Economy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 07 Feb 2024 17:43:00 -0000

Citrini: The Next Phase of The Stock Market's AI-Obsession


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Citrini on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini's Substack: https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Citrini Lived Up To Jack's Nickname as "Hottest AI Stockpicker" (Here's The Proof) (17:21) VanEck Ad (18:04) Citrini's View on The Magnificent Seven (28:49) Fiscal Spending Not Set To Decline, Regardless Of Who Wins U.S. Presidential Election (30:49) Citrini's Basket Of Fiscal Beneficiaries (33:27) How Citrini Conducts His Research (45:07) Citrini's Risk Management (54:25) A Theme That Hasn't Worked: China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 05 Feb 2024 18:08:00 -0000

Dean Curnutt: Market Insurance Is Cheap, Stock-Bond Correlation Is Positive, And Interesting VIX Opportunities


Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Forward Guidance to share how the ongoing bull market has led to a bear market in volatility. Realized and implied vol has fallen sharply as the market has grinded higher, which has created some interesting opportunities to hedge risk. Curnutt notes that the correlation between stocks and bonds remains positive, which is worrisome for diversified investors. Curnutt is also the host of Alpha Exchange podcast. Filmed on January 25, 2024. __ Follow Dean Curnutt on Twitter https://twitter.com/Alpha_Ex_LLC Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Preparing For Risk Off Events (16:13) VanEck Ad (20:09) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (25:49) Volatility (33:16) How Low Can The VIX Go? (42:27) Volatility Risk Premium (46:53) Credit Volatility (54:02) U.S Elections & Volatility Risk (01:03:43) What Is The Vol Structure Pricing In? (01:13:09) When To Buy Cheap Volatility? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 01 Feb 2024 00:24:00 -0000

Joseph Wang On Hawkish Fed Meeting: March Cuts Unlikely, Tapering of Quantitative Tightening (QT) To Begin In Q4 2024 | Joseph Wang, Michael Ippolito, and Jack Farley


__ Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024. __ Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:11:00 -0000

U.S. Treasury Issuance To Exceed $1.1 Trillion (Gross) In Second Quarter, Predicts Plumbing Savant John Comiskey


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ John Comiskeys day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasurys bank account in order to predict how much the U.S. government will borrow and when. He does that at night. Comiskey joins Forward Guidance to share how he taught himself the workings of the Federal Reserves balance sheet before realizing that most of the action was at the Treasury, not the Fed. Comiskey shares in great detail the predictions about how much the U.S.Treasury will borrow in 2024. Filmed on January 24, 2024. __ Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 John Comiskeys Substack: https://johncomiskey.substack.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:14) John's Start In Market Plumbing (Why Fed's Listed Balance Sheet Originally Didn't Go Down When Quantitative Tightening Started in 2022) (06:02) Debt Ceiling Ex Date In 2023 (09:27) Treasurys: Coupons vs. Bills (15:30) The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) In November 2023 (22:36) Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (1.1 Trillion of Gross Issuance, Comiskey Expects) (27:20) VanEck Ad (36:12) The Goals And Obligations Of The U.S. Treasury (43:51) Why Is The U.S. Deficit So Large? (53:19) Some States Have Been Very Late With Paying Their Taxes (59:34) The U.S. Fiscal Deficit in 2024 and Beyond (01:04:40) Comiskey's Doubts That The Fed Will End Quantitative Tightening (QT) As Early As Some Expect (01:11:49) Is This All Sustainable? (01:16:51) Concluding Thoughts (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 26 Jan 2024 23:56:00 -0000

Chris Whalen: Commercial Real Estate "Trainwreck Will Hit Banking System, Consumer Credit Is Normalizing, and Interest Rate Cuts Wont Do Much To Help Banks


Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his outlook on the U.S. banking sector for 2024. Whalen argues that consumer and business credit is faring fine, as delinquencies are rising but from ultra-low levels. He does worry that commercial real estate (CRE) loans will continue to suffer impairment as losses are realized in 2024. Whalen notes that while the decline in long-term bond yields since early November 2023 has improved banks unrealized losses on held-to-maturity (HTM) securities, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not help banks that much as their deposit costs will be slow to fall. Filmed on January 24, 2024. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Troubles In Commercial Real Estate (07:28) This Will Be A Slow-Motion Train Wreck (11:01) Consumer Credit Is Normalizing (Delinquencies Are Rising From Very Low Levels) (16:13) VanEck Ad (16:57) Updated Views On Banks' Interest Rate Exposure (24:52) The Fed Is Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates 6 Times This Year, Argues Whalen (30:13) Fed Will Stop Quantitative Tightening Sooner Than Market Expects (32:32) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR) (33:49) Discount Window, Standing Repo Facility, and Reverse Repo Facility (39:00) Medium Term, Short-Term Rates Will Fall and Yield Curve Will Normalize (41:24) Basel III Endgame (45:32) Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs) and Gain On Sale (51:42) Net Income Will Likely Fall At Banks - "Don't Look For Roses And Sunshine" (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 25 Jan 2024 18:54:00 -0000

David Kotok on Financial Stability, Federal Reserve, Stock Market, and Cuba


Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ David Kotok, co-founder and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, joins Jack fresh off his trip to Cuba, to share insights about the Cuban financial system. Kotok argues that the Federal Reserve has demonstrated its commitment to financial stability, which is very bullish for U.S. financial assets. With that being said, Kotok has his concerns. Filmed on January 23, 2024. Kotok is also a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) and host of the eponymous Camp Kotok. __ Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) The Bond Market Rollercoaster (04:54) The Municipal Bond Market (12:18) The Importance Of Financial Stability (17:14) The Fed Prevented A Banking Run In March 2023 (22:36) Incentive for "Fed To Move Slowly" (24:29) VanEck Ad (25:09) Cuba (29:43) U.S. Dollar Is The Most Popular Currency In Cuba (35:42) Inflation and Credit In Cuba (44:47) Cuba's International Relations (48:25) David Kotok's View On The U.S. Stock Market (51:53) U.S. Economic Outlook (59:41) The Fed's Balance Sheet Policy In 2024 (01:03:00) Inflation In LCLoR (Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves) (01:06:00) Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) Is Not Very Relevant In The Long-Term __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 22 Jan 2024 15:28:00 -0000

Neil Dutta: Why There Was No Recession In 2023


Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Throughout much of 2022 and 2023, that a recession was imminent was the base case among mainstream economists. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro LLC, was among the few to defy this consensus. Why? Household balance sheets were strong and the labor market was tight. Will this strength continue in 2024? Dutta is relatively optimistic on spending over the next sixt months, and thinks that, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as it has indicated, a soft landing is very achievable. However, Dutta notes that if the Fed does not cut and interest rates remain restrictive, his outlook may change throughout the year. Filmed on January 19, 2022. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/RenMacLLC Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:25) Why The Much-Anticipated Recession of 2023 Never Arrived (03:53) How "Leading Indicators" Were Giving False Recession Signals (06:32) Why The Leading Indicators Were Wrong (11:18) You Typically Don't See A Recession When Real Incomes Are Rising (13:19) Setting The Record Straight On "Excess Savings" Narrative (16:30) VanEck Ad (20:13) The Fed and Interest Rates (22:55) Long Lags = Nonsense? (26:21) Neil Dutta's Economic Outlook: Real Incomes Will Continue To Grow Into Summer 2024 (27:00) Inflation Is Falling By A Lot More Than People Think (28:33) The Bond Market Has Been Dead Wrong This Cycle (31:08) Credit Conditions And The Banking System (34:11) Delinquencies (35:49) The Labor Market Is Strong But Cooling (40:54) If Fed Doesn't Cut, That Would Be A Tightening Of Financial Conditions That Could Slow Economy (42:12) Views On Stocks, Bonds, and Sectors (45:00) China (46:29) Election Risk For The Bond Market __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 18 Jan 2024 23:51:00 -0000

Campbell Harvey, Inventor of Inverted Yield Curve Recession Signal, On The Bond Market, The U.S. Economy, And Federal Reserve Policy


Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,. __ So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicators perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harveys specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998. Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a soft landing, it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown. Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke Universitys Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book DeFi and the Future of Finance. Filmed on January 16, 2024. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Cam Harvey on Twitter https://twitter.com/camharvey?lang=en Cam Harvey on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/camharvey/ Cam Harveys website https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ Cam Harveys Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:07) Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal" (18:39) VanEck Ad (19:18) Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them? (21:04) The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions (25:18) The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve (30:52) Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market (36:44) What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022? (42:41) Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze" (46:05) Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging (55:04) Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice.
Tue, 16 Jan 2024 23:21:00 -0000

Michael Howell: Federal Reserve Continues To Inject Liquidity Into Markets Via The Backdoor


Michaell Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on his outlook on global liquidity. Howell notes that further evidence supports his long-held view that liquidity bottomed in October 2022, and he explains why he expects liquidity to strengthen further into 2024, making for a favorable environment for liquidity-sensitive assets such as stocks, gold, and crypto. Filmed on January 11, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow CrossBorder Capital on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) Howell: Liquidity Conditions Continue To Strengthen From Their Lows In The Early Fall of 2022 (12:26) Implications For Stocks, Gold, and Crypto (22:50) Industry Sectors At This Stage In The Liquidity Cycle (24:37) The Bond Market Is Being Distorted By The Federal Reserve (30:07) Term Premia And Convexity In Fixed-Income (37:07) Bank Term Funding Program and Draining of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (40:11) Drivers Of Fed Liquidity In 2024 and Beyond (45:50) The Economic Cycle Is Different Than The Liquidity Cycle (50:51) Is Demand For Refinancing (and Liquidity) Lower Because U.S. Corporates & Households Have Such Long-Duration Liabilities? (54:35) China and The People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:06:56) Howell's View On Interest Rates (01:09:08) Non-Central Bank Sources of Liquidity __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 16 Jan 2024 20:40:00 -0000

Andy Verity on LIE-BOR: Shocking New Evidence Suggest Interest Rate Scandal Is Much, Much, Bigger Than Originally Reported


Andy Verity, Economics Correspondent for BBC News, joins Forward Guidance to discuss revelations from his new book, Rigged: The Incredible True Story Of The Whistleblowers Jailed After Exposing The Rotten Heart Of The Financial System. Verity argues that the traders who were convicted of rigging the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) are mere scapegoats, and that the real rigging was on a scale much larger and was encouraged by central bankers and bank CEOs. This interview features four recordings with former Barclays employee Peter Johnson, which show Johnson raising the alarm bell that nearly every bank was vastly underreporting their true cost of borrowing in the London Eurodollar market. Despite this, Johnson was later accused and convicted of conspiracy to defraud. These recordings are only a tiny fraction of the enormous amount of evidence Verity has collected, which can be found in his book as well as online in several links which will be shared below. Filmed on January 5, 2024. __ Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow Andy Verity on Twitter https://twitter.com/andyverity Andy Veritys book: https://www.amazon.com/Rigged-Incredible-Whistleblowers-Exposing-Financial/dp/0750998857 Rigged, You Be The Judge: https://andyverity.substack.com/p/rigged-you-be-the-judge-7ad?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Andy's NEW Post (January 16, 2024), What the FBI + Gary Gensler's CFTC knew about interest rate manipulation ordered from the top - but didn't tell Congress or the public": https://andyverity.substack.com/p/what-the-fbi-gary-genslers-cftc-knew?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Andy Veritys recordings on SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/andy-verity-74636470 The Lowball Tapes: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0014wtn BBC News Panorama Program: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpUX1WJwivQ&t=96s Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:37) What is LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)? (10:09) The Price Of No Apples (12:07) The Evidence (Taped Phone Calls) (23:22) Traders' Requests Were Punished Whereas "Lowballing" Was Not (37:08) Higher-ups' Involvement: Bank of England, BBA, Federal Reserve, U.K. Government (41:28) Gary Gensler's Role In Alleged Cover-Up (45:30) Peter Johnson, One Of The Very Few Who Cared That LIBOR Was Fraudulent, Was Sent To Jail (52:11) Lowballing Never Came To Court (55:03) The Fall of LIBOR, The Rise of SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) (01:01:19) The LIBOR Trials In The Wake Of The Great Financial Crisis (01:17:59) Where The LIBOR Case Stands In 2024 (01:26:15) The Future of Eurodollars And London In A LIBOR-Less World (01:29:25) Concluding Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 14 Jan 2024 23:51:00 -0000

Kevin Muir: The Market Has Priced In Too Many Fed Cuts Since Government Money Printing Will Keep Nominal Growth High


Kevin Muir, veteran trader and publisher of The Macro Tourist newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers with his thoughts on the U.S. fiscal deficit, the bond market, and buy-write ETFs. Muir argues that persistently stimulative fiscal policy will keep nominal demand and growth high in the U.S., and that over the next decade, inflation surprises will be consistently to the upside. Muir explains why he is bullish on inflation breakevens and Japanese equities, and shares why he is excited about Harley Bassmans new mortgage ETF. Filmed on January 9, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. __ Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muirs newsletter, The Macro Tourist https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) U.S. Fiscal Deficits Are Fueling A Boom (08:54) Are Higher Interest Rates Actually Stimulative To The Economy? (10:29) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (15:11) Thought Experiment With Bank of Japan (20:53) Why Kevin Likes The Japanese Stock Market (24:48) Bond Market and Fed Policy (33:24) Rates Market Is Overzealous In Pricing In Fed Cuts (34:10) Floor vs. Corridor System (42:08) Kevin's 2024 Economic Outlook (51:14) Using Options To Identify True Market-Assigned Probabilities In The STIR Market (57:14) Kevin's Favorite Trade: Long Inflation Breakevens (01:07:36) Interest Rate Vol Is Cheap (And Harley Bassman's New Mortgage ETF) (01:11:04) Kevin's Thoughts On Buy-Write ETFs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 13 Jan 2024 12:00:00 -0000

Paul Hodges: Overcapacity In Chemical Industry Suggests Demand Is Weakening


Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting and publisher of The pH Report returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on the state of the chemicals and automotive industry. Hodges sees significant overcapacity in chemicals and persistently low price of ethene, propylene, and other chemicals suggests that demand is weakening. Jack asks about whether the fall in inflation in the U.S. economy, which occurred while the labor market and spending stayed strong, indicates that a soft landing is a likely outcome in the U.S. or might have even already occurred. Filmed on January 5, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 New Normal Consulting https://t.co/d5mkV0QuBb pH Report https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (26:09) The Bank of Japan Faces A Dilemma (29:09) Why China's Economy Could Remain Weak For Longer Than Many Expect (43:25) The Chemicals Market Remains Weak (55:42) Will The U.S. Continue To Be Immune To Global Slowdown? (01:09:13) Euphoria In The Stock Market (01:10:43) Hodges' Concerns About The Bond Market (01:17:59) Why Can't The Printing Continue? (01:27:52) The Federal Reserve In 2024 (01:34:12) Why Paul Is The Most Risk Averse He's Ever Been (01:40:12) Geopolitics (01:42:05) Green Energy and Electric Vehicles __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 11 Jan 2024 20:57:00 -0000

Danielle DiMartino Booth & George Goncalves on The 2024 Fed Pivot: Recession or Soft Landing?


Todays interview is sponsored by Public. You can go to Public.com, purchase Treasury bills in seconds, and you may be able to earn some of the highest yields weve seen since the year 2000. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. -- On today's episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG for a discussion on what to expect from the Fed, economy & markets in 2024. Will the Fed be able to avoid a recession as markets price in a soft landing? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- This podcast is sponsored by Public. Rate discussed is gross of fees. All investing involves risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. Treasuries on Public are available to US members only. Brokerage Accounts for treasury securities are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc. (JSI) member FINRA and SIPC. Securities investments: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Banking services and the Bank Account are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid-Central National Bank. Full disclosures can be found at https://public.com/forwardguidance. -- Follow Danielle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow George on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) What To Expect In 2024 (07:52) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (14:35) What Caused The Powell Pivot? (28:38) Will The Fiscal Support End In 2024? (42:55) Recession vs The Soft Landing (50:23) Heading For A Credit Event (54:39) Positioning Into 2024 (57:32) Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 08 Jan 2024 23:31:00 -0000

Joseph Wang: Bonds Will Be Crushed By Stocks As Fiscal Deficits Reignite Inflation


On today's episode, Former Fed trader, CIO at Monetary Macro & Author Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2024. Joseph walks through his stock market "crack up boom" thesis, the rise of fiscal dominance & the path ahead for bonds as the U.S runs record high deficits. We then deep dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook as well as broader financial plumbing and how it may impact markets in the year ahead. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Todays interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Disinflation Is Transitory (07:48) Record Deficits Will Fuel A Stock Market Rally In 2024 (11:34) The Fed Will Cut Rates Three Times In 2024 (16:33) Why Isn't The Fed Pushing Back Against Market Pricing? (19:22) Fading The Recessionista's (23:25) The U.S Dollar (26:52) Quantitative Tightening (35:45) The Reverse Repo (46:32) Mortgages Role In The Fed's QT (54:39) Housing (01:01:10) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 05 Jan 2024 21:13:00 -0000

Hari Krishnan on Commodity Tail Hedging, Weather Volatility, And Disaster VIX Trades


Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies as SCT Capital Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his many findings from his recent research on commodity investing. Krishnan and Farley also discuss the weather, the continuing dispersion between interest rate volatility and equity market volatility, and if the bond market really is smarter than the stock market. Filmed on December 19, 2024. Todays interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Hari's Journey Into Commodities (10:10) Finding Upside Convexity In Commodity Options (17:35) Corn (21:41) Copper and Metals (22:53) Natural Gas Is Similar To The VIX (most Contango) (27:27) Seasonality (30:49) Commodity Stocks (34:08) Structural Bull Case For Commodities (38:57) What's Harder - Predicting Weather or Predicting The Stock Market? (41:22) Bread and Butter Volatility Trading (44:32) Views On VIX & Implied Volatility (50:17) Examples of Other "Disaster Trades" In The Volatility World (51:31) Rate Volatility Is Much Higher Than Equity Volatility - Why? (55:12) Is The Stock Market Smarter Than The Bond Market? (01:02:53) Reflexivity, Explained __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 04 Jan 2024 18:00:00 -0000

Dispatches From India | Andrei Stetsenko, Partner at Farley Capital


Andrei Stetsenko, partner at Farley Capital, joins Forward Guidance to share insights from his experience investing in India. Stetsenko, who works with Jacks father, argues that Indias economy is being turbocharged by exceptionally favorable demographics, accelerating urbanization, and growing infrastructure. He explains why he believes Indias stock market contains high-growth, high-quality companies that may trade at much cheaper valuations than a similarly positioned company in the U.S. He argues why he thinks short-term thinking is the most common mistake investors make, and shares his thoughts on several industries such as payments, banking, and airlines. Filmed on December 21, 2023. Andrei Stetsenkos blog, Dispatches From India: https://www.dispatchesfromindia.com/ Andrei Stetsenko on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/astetsen __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Farley Capital Got Started Investing In India (08:50) The Indian Stock Market Vs. American Stock Market (15:15) India's Banking System (18:05) Company Management In India (20:00) Adani Allegations (Hindenburg Research) (24:11) Red Flags To Avoid (26:41) Valuations In The Indian Stock Market (30:12) You Won't Get Far In The Indian Market Without Profit (35:03) Margin Of Safety (39:01) Macro And Discount Rate (41:06) The Payments Industry (46:18) The Credit Card and Buy Now Pay Later Industries (50:13) The U.S. Banking Industry (51:26) Importance of Tuning the Noise Out (55:14) Most Common Mistake In Investing (01:01:47) China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 02 Jan 2024 19:47:00 -0000

Carson Block: Perfect Macro Storm To Hit Blackstone Mortgage Trust


Carson Block, activist short seller and founder of Muddy Waters Research and Muddy Waters Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to share his short thesis on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), a large publicly traded vehicle that owns loans backed by commercial real estate (CRE) buildings. Block argues that a perfect macro storm of lower net operating income (NOI), higher interest rates, and impaired CRE values, could force BXMT to cut their dividend. Using individual loan level data from BXMTs collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), Block found that, absent rate swaps, 73% of CLO borrowers arent covering interest expense, and 27% were unable to pay just the risk free rate (SOFR). Block estimates that 16 Billion (notional value) of rate swaps will expire in 2024, which will put severe stress on the borrowers as well as BXMT itself, potentially creating a liquidity crisis. Block and Farley discuss Blackstone Mortgage Trusts fact sheet, which BXMT may have released in response to Muddy Waters report, originally released on December 6. This interview was filmed on December 20, 2023. NOTE: as disclosed during this interview, Block and his firm are short BXMT against a comparable basket of longs. In no way is this interview an inducement to short BXMT. Lastly, throughout the interview the term Blackstone is sometimes used in lieu of Blackstone Mortgage Trust; it is this company, and NOT Blackstone (BX) itself, that is being referenced, as the bear case discussed in this interview is for BXMT, not BX. Muddy Waters Research short report on Blackstone Mortgage Trust ($BXMT), December 6, 2023: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bxmt/mw-is-short-bxmt/ Blackstone Mortgage Trusts Fact Sheet: https://s26.q4cdn.com/698820489/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/BXMT-Fact-Sheet.pdf Blackstone Mortgage Trust investor relations: https://ir.blackstonemortgagetrust.com/shareholders/default.aspx _ Other Muddy Waters Research: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/ Zer0es TV: https://www.zer0es.tv/ Carsons previous appearance on Forward Guidance (March 2022): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SScVuA4nf44&t=2213s _ Follow Muddy Waters Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/muddywatersre Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Short Thesis on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) (05:00) Loan Level Data Reveal Interest Expense (Absent Swaps) Often Exceeds Net Operating Income (12:14) Refinancing Is A Lot Harder When Collateral Values Have Fallen (22:07) In-Depth Analysis Of Interest Rate Swaps (30:39) How Does This Play Out (37:07) Risk To The Bear Case: That The Mothership (Blackstone) Bails Out BXMT (41:59) Managing The Short BXMT Position (45:39) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy marketsTimestamps:
Sat, 30 Dec 2023 18:14:00 -0000

The Stock Market Is Due For A Correction (And So Is Private Equity) | Jared Dillian


Jared Dillian, founder of The Daily Dirtnap and author of No Worries: How To Live A Stress-Free Financial Life, returns to Forward Guidance to argue that too many are too excited about the stock market and private equity and that, accordingly, he is short both. Dillian expects the much-anticipated recession that never appeared in 2023 to finally arrive, and he remains bullish the front end of the yield curve. Filmed on December 20, 2023. Dillians latest book: https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/books/no-worries __ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jared's Bearish View On Stocks (03:23) Jared's Short On Blackstone (06:55) Higher For Longer Was Just A Narrative All Along (09:07) I Think We'll Get A Recession (12:06) View On Long-Term Government Bonds (15:29) International and Value Stocks (18:06) Very Bearish View On Chinese Stocks (22:05) Bull Case In Argentina (23:09) Value Stocks Vs. Growth Stocks (25:09) Oil (26:51) Stock Market Sentiment (28:20) Indexing and The Awesome Portfolio (36:04) The Risk Of Focusing Too Much On Small Financial Decisions (44:51) Closing Thoughts On Crypto and Gold __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 25 Dec 2023 14:23:00 -0000

Carolyn Sissoko & Joseph Wang on the Fed Pivot and Too Big To Fail In Private Equity & Leveraged Loans


Carolyn Sissoko, senior lecturer at University of the West of England, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and author at FedGuy.com, to discuss the Federal Reserves public acknowledgement that it may cut interest rates in 2024, the collateral supply effect, and the merging of of credit allocation facilities and money markets. Filmed on December 19, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr __ Follow Carolyn Sissoko on Twitter https://twitter.com/csissoko Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Josephs latest, Independent Tracks: https://fedguy.com/independent-tracks/ Professor Sissokos publications: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/CarolynSissoko __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Joseph's Take On The Fed's December FOMC Meeting (09:25) Does Zero Interest Rate Policy Cause Malinvestment And Misallocation of Credit? (15:02) The Rise of "Too Big To Fail" (24:32) Line Separating Bank Lending And Money Markets Has Been "Almost Completely Obliterated" (38:25) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and Stablecoins (40:48) Joseph On Why Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) Could Continue Even As It Cuts Rates (45:20) Joseph's Views On Bonds (01:02:03) The Collateral Effect (01:17:04) CLOs and Private Equity __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 21 Dec 2023 21:21:00 -0000

Stablecoins Are The New Eurodollars | Daniel Neilson on Death Spirals, Liquidity Runs, and The Fragility of Par


Daniel Neilson, professor of economics at Bard College at Simons Rock and author of Soon Parted, returns to Forward Guidance to share findings from his seminal paper, On par: A Money View of stablecoins. Co-authored with Iaki Aldasoro and Perry Mehrling as a working paper for the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), this paper compares on-chain currency (stablecoins) to Eurodollars to explore how they deal with issues of liquidity and par settlement. Filmed on December 8, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr _ BIS Paper, On par: A Money View of stablecoins: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1146.pdf Dan Neilsons newsletter, Soon Parted: https://www.soonparted.co/ Dan Neilsons book, Minsky: https://www.amazon.com/Minsky-Daniel-H-Neilson/dp/1509528504 Follow Dan Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Why Stablecoins? (04:46) The Issue Of Par (09:43) The Great Financial Crisis Of 2008 (12:12) Did The Fed's Rate Surge Halt The Stablecoin Boom? (22:06) Stablecoins, The New Eurodollars (24:20) The Need For Smooth Forward Markets (27:40) There's No Central Bank In Crypto (34:22) Silicon Valley Bank and Circle (49:43) Tether (01:02:20) The Role Of Zero Interest Rates (01:05:01) The Role Of Stablecoins: "Lots of Fireworks" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 19 Dec 2023 18:43:00 -0000

Thomas Majewski on CLOs, Private Credit, and Bank Capital Relief Trades


Thomas Majewski, founder of Eagle Point Credit, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights from the somewhat opaque world of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). Majewski explains why he perceives that CLO equity enjoys a series of structural advantages, and he also shares his thoughts on the worlds of private credit and bank capital relief transactions. Filmed on December 11, 2023. Please note that any past performance discussed in this presentation is not indicative of, or a guarantee of, future performance. To reference performance and the discussion about Eagle Point Credit Company, please visit the website: https://www.eaglepointcreditcompany.com/ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:11) What Are CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations)? (19:00) A Look Back At CDOs And 2008 (31:42) Impact Of Rising Rates On Companies' Ability To Service Debt Loads (40:14) How Would "The CLO World" Handle A Potential Recession? (43:06) Banks Are Selling Credit Risk (i.e. Buying Insurance) Via "Regulatory Capital Relief" Credit Linked Notes (Are They Similar To Credit Default Swaps?) (54:15) Private Credit - Golden Age Or Biggest Bubble In The World? (01:00:13) Liability Structure of BDCs (Business Development Corporation) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 12 Dec 2023 21:01:00 -0000

Kathy Jones: The Bull Case For Bonds, And The Need For Caution on Private Credit & Leveraged Loans


Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on interest rates, credit spreads, the economy, and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on December 5, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Kathy Jones on Twitter https://twitter.com/KathyJones Follow Schwab Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/SchwabResearch Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (07:45) Inverted Yield Curve Is Here To Stay (10:01) Term Premia Will Decline (14:12) Bond Market Does Not Always Track Nominal Growth (17:21) Can't Rule Out That This Is A Counter-Trend Rally (20:56) How Does Bond Supply Affect Price? (29:02) The Days Of Quantitative Tightening (QT) May Be Numbered (31:33) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (34:09) Investment Grade (IG) Corporate Bonds (37:22) We Are Not Enthusiastic About CLOs and Private Credit (46:40) Sentiment and Positioning In Fixed Income (48:50) Views on Europe and Japan (53:32) Bull Case For The Dollar __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 11 Dec 2023 15:24:00 -0000

The Banking System Is Healing | Dan Siciliano & Michael Ericson


This week, Michael Ericson President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank & Dan Siciliano Chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB join the show for a discussion on the current health of the banking system. At the end of the year in 2023, 9 months after the March banking panic, Dan & Michael make a case that the U.S banking system if more healthy & stale than earlier this year. We deep dive into the collapse of SVB, how the FHLB operates & what to expect looking ahead to 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) What Is The FHLB? (04:12) Strength Of The Banking System (17:27) Does The FHLB Have Credit Risk? (28:04) The Collapse Of SVB (37:24) Role Of The FHLB vs The Fed (47:05) Bank Credit Worthiness (01:03:40) Lessons Learned From The March Bank Panic (01:08:48) Silvergate Bank (01:16:02) Silicon Valley Bank (01:19:50) Operational Expenses Of The FHLB -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 07 Dec 2023 16:51:00 -0000

Felix Zulauf: The End Of The Liquidity Cycle Approaches


Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to apply his framework for understanding markets to make several big calls for 2024 and beyond. Zulauf expects the rally in stocks and bonds to continue to Q1 2024, but then he argues both will struggle as the liquidity cycle enters its final phase. FIlmed on December 5, 2023. More info about Zulauf Consulting can be found here: www.felixzulauf.com Felix Zulauf is the Founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. Felix has over 40 years of experience in financial markets and asset management and has served as a member of the Barrons Roundtable for 30 years. He started as a trader with Swiss Bank Corporation in the early 1970s and received training in research and portfolio management thereafter with several investment banks in New York, Zurich, and Paris. Mr. Zulauf joined UBS in 1977 as a Portfolio Manager of global mutual funds and became Global Strategist of UBS in 1982 and the head of the institutional portfolio management group in 1986. Felix served as a member of the Executive Board of Clariden Bank from 1988-1990 and founded Zulauf Asset Management AG in 1990, a Swiss-based asset management company. Mr. Zulauf sold the majority of the firm and spun off a Family Office in 2009. LinkedIn @zulauf-consulting YouTube Channel @zulaufconsulting __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Counter-Trend Rally In Bonds May Continue, But The Bond Bear Market Likely Isn't Over (12:47) Magnificent 7 Stocks Are "Excessively Overpriced (29:31) Transition To Bear Market (35:25) Has U.S Economy Dodged A Recession? (37:23) Some Economic Statistics Could Not Be Accurate To Reality (40:27) Will Inflation Reaccelerate (42:01) Geopolitical Risk Is Not Being Taken Seriously By The Market (46:07) U.S.-China Relations (50:34) Waiting On China's Economic Recovery (53:53) Will Bull Market In Japanese Stocks Continue? (56:34) Tactical Bullish View On U.S. Dollar Relative To Some Other Currencies
Mon, 04 Dec 2023 23:55:00 -0000

Dr. Barry Eichengreen & Joseph Wang on Dollar Dominance, Problematic Levels of Government Debt, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and Central Bank Digital Currencies


Dr. Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and writer at FedGuy.com, to discuss his paper at the Federal Reserves 2023 Jackson Hole symposium, Living with High Public Debt. Professor Eichengreen also shares his findings on the U.S. dollars role as a global reserve currency (dollar dominance), financial repression, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and he also shares his views on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Filmed on November 28, 2023. Dr. Eichengreens 2023 Jackson Hole paper, Living With High Public Debt: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9749/Living_With_High_Public_SA_Sep_2_2023.pdf Complete agenda for 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/jackson-hole-economic-policy-symposium-structural-shifts-in-the-global-economy/ More information on Dr. Eichengreens work: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Follow Dr. Barry Eichengreen on Twitter https://twitter.com/B_Eichengreen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Josephs writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) High Levels of Debt Relative to GDP Are Problematic (06:07) Ways By Which Debt-to-GDP Ratios Can Be Lowered (14:08) Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) Lead To A Productivity Miracle? (19:58) How Bad Does It Have To Get Before A Global Reserve Currency Gets Dethroned? (26:31) Central Banks Are Buying More Gold (30:31) What Could Erode Dollar's Dominant Position In The World (40:39) Dr. Eichengreen's Views On Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (46:05) Is Central Bank Independence Something That's Here To Stay? (49:16) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) (59:49) Dr. Eichengreen's Future Work On China's Economic Slowdown __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 01 Dec 2023 01:45:00 -0000

Pain In Commercial Real Estate Will Be Worse Than In 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Argues Veteran Office Investor Anthony Dilweg


Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor and Founder & CEO and of Dilweg, joins Forward Guidance to share shocking information from the world of commercial real estate (CRE) in general and office in particular. Dilweg, whose firm owns over 5.5 million square feet of real estate, mostly located in the Southeast United States, argues the challenges CRE will contend with may be greater than those faced during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Dilwegs base case is that office as an asset class is structurally broken as the trends of remote and hybrid work are here to stay. He expects over a billion square footage of U.S. office space will be rendered obsolete in the coming years. With all these challenges notwithstanding, Dilweg is optimistic that there will be great investment opportunities for well capitalized players who can take advantage of market distress. Filmed on November 29, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ About Dilweg: https://www.dilweg.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Dilweg's Background in Football and Real Estate (04:10) Dilweg's Start In Real Estate: "Ready, Fire, Aim" (09:00) Office Is The Most Capital-Intensive Sector Of Real Estate (12:15) Interest Rate Surge Has Been A "Jolt To The System" (20:30) Office Is Structurally Broken Right Now (34:10) It's A Lot Worse Than The Headlines (43:10) Lease Term: Comparison To "Duration" In Bond World (44:10) Interest Rate Hedging In The Real Estate Business (Public REITs and Private Investors) (45:00) Are Office Rents Going Down? (50:35) Dilweg's Forward Outlook On Returns (53:10) A Lot Of Properties Will Go Back To Banks (01:09:00) Dilweg's Outlook on Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Other Than Offices (01:14:50) The Rise Of Experiential Hospitality (01:17:50) WeWork & Adam Neumann (01:23:00) Dilweg's View on Office Markets In Big U.S. Metropolitan Cities (01:29:10) The Work-From-Home Debate (01:46:00) The Rise of Private Credit
Wed, 29 Nov 2023 01:03:00 -0000

Marko Papic: Russia-Ukraine War Is Effectively Over, Israel-Hamas War Unlikely To Have Large Market Impact


Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Follow Marko Papic on Twitter https://twitter.com/Geo_papic Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Geopolitical Risks Are Often Mispriced (09:20) Papic's Outlook on Russia-Ukraine War (13:30) Blank Checks For Ukraine Are Getting Very Politically Expensive For Western Politicians (23:11) Military Alliances Can Be Dangerous (25:41) Papic on Israel-Hamas War: "Palestinian Issues Have Never Had A Market Impact" (27:31) Papic Believes That Conflict "Will Be Contained To Israel" (34:29) Gold's Recent Rally As Central Banks Diversify Away From U.S. Dollar (37:16) The Market Has Become Aware That World Is Increasingly Multipolar (42:39) Analogy To World War 1 and World War 2 (48:00) What Makes A Great Power? (52:19) What Are China's Global Ambitions As A Great Power? (59:35) China & Taiwan (01:06:58) U.S.-China Economic Relations (Flow of Trade and Capital) (01:11:05) There Will Be A Huge Buying Opportunity In China Over Next 12-18 Months (01:13:27) U.S. Presidential Election (01:16:47) I Think There's No Way In Hell The Fed Raises Rates Over The Next Twelve Months (01:19:43) American Elites Are Not Very Smart __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 24 Nov 2023 19:29:00 -0000

Jens Nordvig: Interest Rates Have Peaked, The U.S. Dollar Is Overvalued


Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets. Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserves last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against risk-off currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and even gold. Filmed on November 22, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Until November 27th, a 20% discount can be obtained on 4-pack passes to DAS as well. Use code BLACKROCK at checkout. __ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante Data on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData Follow Marketreader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. (00:00) Introduction (00:25) It's Been A Busy Year (02:29) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of U.S. Economy (13:06) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (15:44) Jens' Bull Case For Rates (22:27) Fed Will Be "Much More Relaxed" If Services Inflation Continues To Moderate (28:41) Potential For "Big Cuts" (31:07) An Extraordinary Summer In FX (34:34) Jens' Bear Case For Dollar Against Gold and Risk-Off Currencies Such As Swiss Franc
Tue, 21 Nov 2023 21:00:00 -0000

The Worlds Greatest Carry Trade May About To Be Unwound | Nicholas Glinsman


Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update his views on fixed-income and the economy. He argues that shorting the yen // buy non-yen-denominated assets trade, the greatest carry trade in the world, may be unwound as the Bank of Japan steers away from yield curve control and potentially will raise interest rates. This would have massive implications on global markets, which Glinsman expounds on in depth. Filmed on November 20, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (09:19) The Deficit Will Probably Increase, Not Decrease (11:05) U.S. Election (15:21) Crypto & European Sovereign Debt Crisis (26:13) Germany's Fiscal Situation (31:51) Geopolitics in Middle East (35:26) The "Biggest Carry Trade In The World" (56:03) Stock Market (01:07:27) U.S. China Relations Are Improving __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Nov 2023 22:59:00 -0000

Jason Shapiro: Its Too Early To Get Long Bonds


Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of Crowded Market Report, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his philosophy for trading markets. Shapiro explains that while the only position he currently has on is being long the Swiss Franc, he still thinks stocks will likely outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Filmed on November 16, 2023. __ Todays interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:51) Stock/Bond Correlation (14:39) Hindsight Is 20/20, Show Me The P&L (16:30) Gold & Oil (21:55) Narratives Are Cheap (26:36) Investing Vs. Trading (32:37) Banks & Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (40:46) Correlations & Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) (49:12) Jason's Long Position in The Swiss Franc (55:26) The Role Of Stop Losses (01:03:42) When To Get Out __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Nov 2023 17:37:00 -0000

George Robertson: The Fed Has No Control, There Will Be No Recession, and Fiscal Supremacy Will Drive Stocks To Ponzi Stage


George Robertson joins Forward Guidance to argue that the exceptionally large fiscal stimulus will mean that the economic boom has no end in sight. Once the market realizes there will be no recession, Robertson continues, stocks will soar and the 10-year will rise. Robertson makes the case that the true risk-free yield curve is actually not inverted, a claim at odds with common conceptions and one of many claims that Jack pushes back on, some others being that the Federal Reserves monetary policy has effectively no impact on the economy and that the 10-year Treasury yield is an accurate gauge of future nominal GDP. FIlmed on October 30, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://twitter.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:00) The Huge Economic Boom Is Just Getting Started (07:16) George Says Federal Reserve Has "Violent" Control of the Press (11:49) George Says Risk-Free Rates Are Commonly Misunderstood (20:32) Federal Reserve is "One Of Greatest Creations Of U.S. Democracy," Says George Robertson (23:08) Debate About Interest Rate Impact on Mortgage Prepayment Speeds (30:00) Debate About Whether Mortgage Curve Is "True" Yield Curve (51:19) SOFR is Complete Useless Garbage (01:02:14) Minsky Comes In: Hedge Phase to Speculative Phase to Ponzi Phase (01:26:00) 10-Year Headed To 6% As "Cheap As Hell" Stocks Will Enter "Ponzi Phase" (01:30:40) It's "Foolish" To Make A Call On Labor as Jobs Market At 50-Year High, Says George Robertson (01:34:00) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) & Inflation (01:45:29) George's Experience With Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 10 Nov 2023 12:00:00 -0000

The Massive Bond Short | Recession Denier Jonny Matthews (ex-Brevan Howard) On The Duration Bubble, Correlation Trades, and Variance Swaps


Jonny Matthews, founder of Super Macro and former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and managing director at Citi & Saloman Brothers, joins Forward Guidance to share his view on markets and the economy. Having netted a near 100% return in 2022 with a very large short in Treasury bonds, Matthews has been a proud recession denier for several years. While he is now concerned with some worrisome data in the U.S., Matthews continues to believe that an imminent recession in the U.S. is unlikely. Matthews and Farley also discuss the dangers of correlation trades, the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and the perils of variance swaps in 2008 and Long-Term Capital Management. Filmed on November 2, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes -- Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://t.co/jfb5Vw982B Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:34) Jonny's Massive Trade Shorting Bonds (07:18) Analyzing Bond Demand Is Too Hard: Jonny Prefers To Track The Economy (11:47) Concerning Changes In Recent Economic Data (17:29) Pushing Back Against Jonny's "Recession Denier" Thesis (21:13) Manufacturing Can Enter Recession While Overall Economy Is Not In Recession (22:53) Excess Savings Indicate American Consumer Still Flush With Cash (26:59) Jonny's Macro Trades As Of November 2023 (29:41) Real Rates Are Unlikely To Go Much Higher (31:55) Curve Will Likely Re-Steepen When Fed Cuts Rates (39:39) Economy in Europe Is "Much Much Weaker" (41:33) Views On The Dollar & The Euro (42:55) Bank of England & Inflation In the U.K. (47:47) View On British Stocks (50:16) China & Japan (01:00:22) Trading Volatility Is Different Than Trading The Underlying Asset (01:03:08) The Danger of Correlations Trades: Ghosts of 2008 (01:05:40) Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) Blow-up -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Nov 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Interest Rate Declines Will Bring Fated "Soft Landing," Says Earnings Maestro Sam Burns


In January of 2023, a time where extreme pessimism on stocks and the economy reigned, Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, shared his bullish outlook on equities with Jack. Now that his prediction has come true, Sam returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is much less overweight on equities now than in January, but that he remains somewhat constructive on risk assets even as he expects a modest slowdown in 2024. Filmed on November 3, 2023. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Less Overweight Equities Than In January... But Still Overweight (06:54) Monitor of Analysts Earnings Revisions (MAER) (11:31) The Housing Market (& Homebuilding Industry) (15:18) The Banks (16:50) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (18:43) Healthcare & Commodity Sectors (20:18) Chinese Stocks (23:55) S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (31:40) Equity Momentum Has Weakened (34:39) Disinflation Will Continue, The Soft Landing Is Here (42:40) At What Point Does Global Manufacturing & Trade Downturn Impact The U.S. Economy? (48:10) Fiscal Tailwinds In The U.S. (54:20) If Interest Rates Decline, Soft Landing Very Likely -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 06 Nov 2023 18:53:51 -0000

The Bond Market Sell-Off Was Duration, Not Credit Risk | Ben Santonelli


On Todays episode, Ben Santonelli Portfolio Manager at Polen Capital joins the show for a discussion on the state of the high yield bond market. Expecting further weakness in the high yield space, but nothing outside the normal credit cycle, Ben explains where he is finding the best opportunities as "debt investors can now generate equity type returns". To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: FG20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:49) Debt Investors Are Generating Equity Type Returns (05:38) Default Rates Will Increase In 2024 & Beyond (12:41) Loan-to-Value (LTV): Investing In High Quality Businesses (20:05) Loan Demand Has Declined Since 2022 (22:35) Liquidity (31:00) Credit Spreads Are Still Tight (35:35) Credit's Performance During A Recession (39:20) The Weakness In Credit Is Mostly Margin Compression (46:46) If Interest Rates Remain Higher For Longer, We Will See Refinancing Issues (50:41) Wages & Labor -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 03 Nov 2023 16:35:27 -0000

Althea Spinozzi on Stagflation, Term Premia, and Ultra Long-Duration Bonds


MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Spinozzi Remains Bearish On Very Long Duration Bonds (08:18) View On Investment Grade Bonds (09:46) Who Will Be Marginal Buyer Of U.S. Treasurys? (15:40) Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasurys (& Japanese Investors) (22:40) The Shape of the Yield Curve (24:07) Balance Sheet Policy (QT & QE) (32:32) Much Of Europe Is In Recession (42:21) European Demand For U.S. Treasurys (45:47) Barbell Approach To Fixed Income (Short-Term & 10-Year) __ Follow Althea Spinozzi on Twitter https://twitter.com/Altheaspinozzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 01 Nov 2023 22:19:28 -0000

Michael Kao on November Fed Meeting, Treasury Refunding, and Bond Market Bear Steepening (Co-Hosted By Michael Ippolito & Jack Farley)


Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, returns to Forward Guidance alongside Blockworks co-founder Michael Ippolito to break down the U.S. Treasurys quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) and Feds FOMC meeting that marked the first day of November. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Michael Kaos article discussed in the show: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationoilgoldyield-curves-revisiting Follow Michael Kao on Twitter https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Michael Ippolito on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin on Twitter https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 30 Oct 2023 21:36:00 -0000

Were In Uncharted Territory | Warren Pies on Treasury Issuance, Housing Market, Oil, And Recession Risk


Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on oil, bond supply, the housing market, and the labor market. Having been an underweight bonds and overweight commodities (oil), Pies now views both the 10-Year Treasury and oil as roughly fair value. Pies expects the mortgage buydowns, where homebuilders shield new homebuyers from the cost of higher mortgage rates, to no longer work at 8% mortgage buyers. He thinks a recession might start in Q2 2024 as employment in residential construction begins to wane. Filmed on October 27, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Warren Pies on Twitter https://twitter.com/WarrenPies 3Fourteen Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/3F_Research Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Why Warren Has Been Significantly Underweight Bonds (And Why He Is No Longer) (12:12) Earnings Expectations For Stocks (24:59) Warren's View On Housing Market & Recession (33:31) The Buydown Math For Homebuilders Stops Working At 8% (40:21) Labor Market Remains Very Tight (43:44) Is U.S. Economy Reaccelerating From Trough of 2022? (48:21) Warren's View On Oil (50:56) Hedge Funds Tend To Short Oil On A Directional Basis As Opposed To Being Part of a Basis Trade (Such As So Often The Case In Bonds) (52:42) Overweight Position In Energy Stocks (Within Equity Sleeve) (01:00:09) Pro-Cyclical Deficits Run By U.S. Government __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 29 Oct 2023 13:00:00 -0000

Does Historic Cheapness Of Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Indicate Funding Stress? Dave Goodson, Professor Jeremy Siegel, Jeremy Schwartz, and Jack Farley


What youre about to listen to is a conversation with Jeremy Siegel, distinguished professor of economics at Wharton, Jeremy Schwartz, CIO of WisdomTree, and Dave Goodson, head of securitized products at Voya Financial, and Jack Farley, who was a guest on this episode of the Behind The Markets podcast. The first part of this discussion features Professor Siegels macro view on bonds, stocks, and the economy, and the second part of the conversation is devoted to Dave Goodsons in-depth analysis of the world of securitized products, such as agency MBS, non-agency MBS, commercial MBS, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Original episode of Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley-dave-goodson/id1194707802?i=1000632103956 __ Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:000 Introduction (01:06) Professor Jeremy Siegel on "Higher For Longer" And His Outlook On Stock Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel (09:07) Professor Jeremy Siegel on "Higher For Longer" And His Outlook On Stock Market (10:51) Dave Goodson On Bond Market (15:42) Does The Historic Cheapness of Agency mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Indicate Bank Funding Stress? (21:41) Opportunities in Non-Agency Structured Products (23:24) Dave Goodson On Non-Agency Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (31:57) Is The Risk In Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Not Fully Priced? (40:11) Private Credit CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 27 Oct 2023 02:56:21 -0000

Sam Bankman-Fried Testifies At Last | Casey Wagner & Jack Farley On The Trial Of The Century


Jack welcomes Casey Wagner, Blockworks' senior policy correspondent, to recap the wild day of the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) on October 26th, when SBF at last takes a stance to testify and rebut allegations of financial crimes. Casey Wagner's recent article on the trial: https://blockworks.co/news/sbf-trial-defense-missing-document https://blockworks.co/news/sam-bankman-fried-trial-day-13__ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:27) Evidence Destruction (Document Retention Policy, Of Which There Is No Available Record) (18:17) First Two Witnesses For The Defence (27:04) Sam Bankman-Fried Breaks His Silence (Sworn Testimony Without Jury) (34:38) Courtroom Politics (42:29) How Long Would SBF's Potential Sentence Be? (45:38) Jury Selection & Reaction __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Thu, 26 Oct 2023 16:00:00 -0000

Duration Remains Unattractive, Says Veteran High Yield Bond Investor


On todays episode, Craig Manchuck Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Osterweis joins the show for a discussion on the end of the zero interest rate era. We deep dive into the bond market sell-off over the past 3 years, where to find opportunities in the bond market & the rise of private credit. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:43) The Low Interest Rate Era Is Over (06:55) The Fed's Tightening Will Lead To A Recession (17:47) Investing In A Zero Rate Regime vs Today (23:34) The Indexation Of Fixed Income (27:22) How CLOs & Passive Have Impacted Bonds (41:33) Where Is The Pain From Higher Interest Rates Being Felt? (48:10) The Heyday Of Private Equity Is Over (01:00:19) Liquidity In Private Credit (01:09:35) Understanding The Credit Spread Curve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 23 Oct 2023 18:00:00 -0000

A Deep Dive On China's Financial System | Aidan Garrib


On todays episode, Aidan Garrib Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global joins the show for a deep dive into the Chinese economy. We take a look under the hood into the shadow debt within China, the Governments crackdown on credit & Aidan's outlook for both Chinese equities & more broadly the economy. Finally, we shift over to the U.S and discuss the recent bond market sell-off. Have we seen enough pain for bond investors, or will recessionary headwinds lead to a rally in bonds? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance -- Follow Aidan Garrib on Twitter https://twitter.com/AidanGarrib Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Understanding The Chinese Economy (07:13) China's Stock Market Has Been Flat For A Decade (13:46) Understanding China's Shadow Debt (19:01) China's Real Estate Bubble (25:06) China's Crackdown On Credit (28:19) Is There Systemic Risk In China? (32:16) What's Happening With The Yuan? (36:32) China Is In Recession (43:47) China's Global Reserve Currency Ambitions (50:05) Finding Opportunities In China (57:37) The Bond Market Sell-Off (01:03:50) The Outlook For Equities (01:06:05) Is The U.S Heading For A Recession? Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 20 Oct 2023 12:20:00 -0000

Dr. Claudio Borio & Joseph Wang on Fiscal Dominance, Financial Instability, and the Boundaries Of Debt-Fueled Economic Growth


Todays interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023. Some of Borios and the BIS works mentioned in this interview: Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust, June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf The two-regime view of inflation, March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajek https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap133.pdf International banking and financial market developments BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023 https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309.pdf Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge? 26 January 2023, Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajek https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf On money, debt, trust and central banking, January 2019, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.pdf Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous? November 2021, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work982.pdf The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt? December 2012, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf __ Follow Bank For International Settlements on Twitter https://twitter.com/BIS_org Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Interplay Between Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy (09:50) High Levels Of Government Indebtedness As A Risk (12:35) Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The Global Economy? (15:56) The Financial Cycle (24:12) The Two Inflationary Regimes (36:45) Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening) (39:34) Liquidity In Sovereign Bond Markets (46:13) Non-Bank Financial Sector Is "Rife With Hidden Leverage & Maturity Mismatches" (50:56) Interest Rate Risk Within Banking System (56:45) Concluding Thoughts On Debt & Inflation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 18 Oct 2023 23:30:00 -0000

John Toohig & Nate Stovall: Bank Loan Market Is Very Frozen


John Toohig, managing director and head of whole loan trading at Raymond Jaymes, and Nathan Stovall, director of the financial institutions research team for S&P Global Market Intelligence, join Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to update listeners on the state of the U.S. banking industry. Surging deposit costs, steadily rising defaults, and a freeze on loan liquidity are just some of the topics discussed in this conversation. Filmed the afternoon of October 18, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Latest edition of John Toohigs Lets Talk Loans: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-70-john-toohig/ __ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Nate Stovall on Twitter https://twitter.com/StreetTalkpod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 17 Oct 2023 23:23:00 -0000

Chris Whalen: Banking System On Knifes Edge As Fed May Destroy The World


Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the recently released third quarter earnings from banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citi, Charles Schwab, and Goldman Sachs. Whalen also discusses with Farley companies about to report such as American Express, PNC Financial, Bank of the Ozarks, and Truist. Filmed the afternoon of October 17, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bank Earnings For Third Quarter So Far Are "Cautiously Mediocre" (03:07) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (10:22) Defaults Remain Within 2019 Levels (15:17) Chris Is Somewhat Bearish On Most Of U.S. Banking Sector (19:09) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) (34:48) Goldman Sachs ($GS) (42:42) Regional Banks (PNC, U.S. Bank, Truist) (46:40) Card Issuers Such As American Express, Discover, and Capital One (48:10) Private Equity & Private Credit (51:22) CRE Lenders Such As KeyCorp, Western Alliance, and Bank of the Ozarks (52:28) Risk Of Another Bank Failure (57:53) Potential Of "TARP 2.0" (01:01:30) Is Recent Bear Steepening In Bond Market Good For Banks' Earnings Power? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 16 Oct 2023 15:00:00 -0000

The Future Of Financial Repression | Helen Thompson on Energy, Capital Controls, and the Federal Reserve


Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge and author of Disorder: Hard Times In The 21st Century, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on European energy, the Federal Reserve, financial repression, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Filmed on October 12, 2023. __ Helen Thompsons book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Disorder-Hard-Times-21st-Century/dp/0198864981 Helen Thompsons book on Oxford Press: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/disorder-9780198864981 Helen Thompson at Cambridge: https://www.polis.cam.ac.uk/Staff_and_Students/dr-helen-thompson __ Follow Helen Thompson on Twitter https://twitter.com/HelenHet20 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Energy In Europe (09:27) Wind and Solar (13:36) Nuclear Energy (22:07) Federal Reserve Has Made American Monetary Power The Strongest It's Ever Been (32:11) Are Fed Rate Hikes A Problem For The Rest Of The World? (35:35) Implications Of Sovereign Debt Levels On Political Economy (41:55) Financial Repression And Capital Controls (51:34) The Future Of Money And The Dollar (56:47) U.S. China Relations (01:00:46) Conflict In Israel __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 12 Oct 2023 17:09:00 -0000

Mike Green & Bob Elliott: "Hard Landing" In Store For Economy In 2024


On todays episode, Bob Elliott CIO at Unlimited Funds & Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion on the late cycle slowdown coming throughout the end of 2023 & into 2024.We discuss the impact of passive investing & to what degree earnings really matter in todays modern market structure, the relative value in bonds vs stocks & what delinquencies could be signalling in terms of credit going forward. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Bob Elliott on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Mike Green on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) The Bond Market Sell-Off (04:09) Is The Bond Market Pain Over? (06:37) The Economy Remains Strong For Now (13:23) Fading The Soft Landing (19:36) The Passive Investing Machine Keeps Churning (26:19) Who Is The Marginal Buyer Of Bonds In 2023/24? (30:49) We're In The Late Stages Of A Macro Cycle (36:16) A Maturity Wall Is On The Horizon (38:42) The Best Risk/Reward In Markets (49:20) Bitcoin, Gold & Bond's During Geopolitical Conflict (59:12) Recession & The Unemployment Rate (01:02:48) Banks Are Less Important In The Credit Cycle Today (01:15:51) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024? (01:24:05) Seeking Alpha vs Beta -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 09 Oct 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Bond Bear Eyes Tactical Long In Treasury Notes | David Cervantes


David Cervantes of Pine Brook Capital Management LLC joins Forward Guidance to share why he faded the recession consensus of 2022, why he decided to short bonds this year, and why as of early October he sees an opportunity to be long the U.S. 10-year Treasury as a tactical long. Filmed on October 5, 2023. Follow David Cervantes on Twitter https://twitter.com/pinebrookcap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:58) Why 1 Year Ago Cervantes Thought Recession Was Unlikely (07:05) Cervantes' Short Bond Trade (14:45) Fed Policy (26:16) Tracking The Economy (32:35) There May Be A Slowdown, But A Recession Is Unlikely In Near-Term (45:41) The Maturity Wall Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 Oct 2023 18:14:53 -0000

Lyn Alden: The Monetary Order Is Broken


On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Lyn Alden Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy & Author of Broken Money joins the show for a discussion on the recent bond market meltdown before diving deep into why our current monetary order is broken, the pro's vs con's of hard money and how Bitcoin could be a solution to the current monetary disorder.To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show: Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better: https://amzn.to/3tizFVg Money and the Mechanism of Exchange: https://bit.ly/3rJDpi0 -- Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Meltdown (11:18) Buying Bonds Here Is Not A Great Trade (14:30) Are We Heading For A U.S Recession? (17:12) Commercial Real Estate Is Under Pressure, Energy Remains Strong (21:51) Risk vs Reward In Equities (24:38) Broken Money: What Is Money? (31:45) Why Is Money Broken? (36:43) The "Golden Age" Of Money (43:00) Does "Sound Money" Lead To Prosperity? (46:49) The 21st Century Has Marked The Golden Age Of Energy (51:23) The Lack Of Transparency In Fiat Money (54:54) Hard Money Puts A Check On Government Spending (01:02:22) Countries Will Demand A Harder Currency Over Time: U.S Dollars, Gold & Bitcoin (01:06:32) Re-Thinking The Current Monetary System (01:16:26) Bitcoin Is In The Early Phase Of Adoption (01:21:53) Bitcoin & The Layers Of Money (01:35:34) The Bridge From Fiat To Bitcoin (01:41:02) Stablecoins -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 03 Oct 2023 19:05:37 -0000

The Great Bond Bear Steepening | Alfonso Peccatiello


On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Alfonso Peccatiello Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass joins the show for a discussion on the U.S bond market sell-off and it implications for broader markets, both domestically & internationally. Weighing sentiment, risk/reward & economic signals, Alfonso assesses if the current sell-off is justified, or is the trend about to reverse and provide an attractive opportunity to go long bonds? To hear all this & much much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Sign up to The Macro Compass bond course & use the code "Macro20" for a 20% discount: https://www.themacrocompass.com/courses/#bond-market-course -- Follow Alfonso on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Sell-Off (11:38) Testing Bond Market Sentiment (21:16) What Could Go Wrong Being Long Bonds? (27:37) Bond Market Term Premium (35:05) The Best Risk/Reward Is Short Equities (38:36) The Real Weakness Is In Europe (46:28) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (51:00) Understanding The Yield Curve: Bear Steepening (54:58) Supply & Demand In The U.S Bond Market (58:46) Bank Bond Buying & Interest Rate Hedging (01:17:40) Bear Steepening During An Inverted Yield Curve (01:23:16) Will Bonds Continue Selling Off Until Something Breaks? (01:28:47) Are European Banks More Resilient Than U.S Banks, Or Not? (01:35:00) The Macro Compass Bond Market Class & 20% Discount -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Thu, 28 Sep 2023 14:58:25 -0000

Luke Gromen: Panic In The Bond Market Will Continue Unless Oil Or Dollar Relent


Luke Gromen, founder of Forest For The Trees, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the steep sell-off in the long-end of the U.S. Treasury market. Filmed on September 25, 2023. Follow Luke Gromen on Twitter https://twitter.com/LukeGromen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 26 Sep 2023 11:00:00 -0000

GameStop, Citadel, And The Fleecing Of Small Investors | Spencer Jakab


Spencer Jakab, editor of Heard On The Street for The Wall Street Journal, joins Forward Guidance to share what he learned writing his latest book, The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors. Jakab and Farley discuss meme-stock mania in all its aspects: the outwitting of hedge funds by individual investors, the transformation of r/WSB from a trading club to a movement, the shameless promotion by influencers, and the tallying of who ultimately got rich. Filmed on September 19, 2023. Spencers book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/690543/the-revolution-that-wasnt-by-spencer-jakab/ Spencers book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Revolution-That-Wasnt-GameStop-Investors/dp/0593421159 Follow Spencer Jakab on Twitter https://twitter.com/Spencerjakab Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:23) Fleecing Of Small Investors (16:40) Problems At The Clearinghouse (31:13) Gamma Squeezes via Out-of-the-Money Short-Dated Call Options (38:19) Who Was Still Short? (51:02) The r/wsb Strategy Become A Movement (56:28) The Influencers: Dave Portnoy, Chamath Palihapitiya, and Jack Farley (01:06:10) The Theories Of Conspiracy (01:13:44) How To Beat Wall Street (Actually) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 25 Sep 2023 17:23:00 -0000

Former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz On Crypto Regulation


Brian Quintenz, head of policy for a16z crypto and former commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), joins Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of crypto regulation. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Sat, 23 Sep 2023 19:42:00 -0000

The Bond Market Is Tanking. Is It Time To Buy? | Nanette Jacobson


Nanette Jacobson, Global Investments Strategist at Hartford Funds, joins Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook. Jacobson argues that it might be time to lean into bonds because the bonds tend to rally 13 months before the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and she and Jack Farley debate the various merits of owning bonds at this juncture in the business cycle. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Economic Outlook (09:04) Outlook On Banking System (12:45) Views On Interest Rates & Fed (25:20) China is "Cheap For A Reason" (30:14) U.S. Fiscal Stimulus (37:22) Cautious Views On Stocks (39:05) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (39:06) Debate About Bonds (45:56) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (50:52) Expensive Stocks Can Always Get More Expensive
Wed, 20 Sep 2023 22:50:12 -0000

Danielle DiMartino Booth: Jay Powell Just Went Way Off Script At September Fed Meeting


Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserves Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jay Powell Goes Off Script (16:50) Oil & Inflation (25:54) Odds Of A Liquidity Crisis Forcing The Fed To Stop QT (Danielle Doesn't Buy It!) (40:13) Normalization of Credit (46:52) Danielle's Hypothesis That March 2020 Might Not Count As A Recession (53:13) Will There Be A NBER-Declared Recession Within 24 Months (And Why)? (01:01:00) Risk Of Government Shutdown
Wed, 20 Sep 2023 01:00:00 -0000

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce on Regulation In Crypto, SPACs, and Money Market Funds


SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce joins Jack Farley to share her views on crypto regulation and the SECs purview of it. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:39) Crypto & Transparency - What Is The SEC's Role? (07:29) What Is A "Security"? Commissioner Peirce's Views (15:00) SEC Proposal To Change Definition Of An Exchange (17:00) Crypto And Alleged "Lawlessness" (20:21) Does The SEC's Jurisdiction Begin And End With "Securities"? (23:07) Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) (26:45) Proposed Money Market Fund (MMF) Reform (29:14) Difference Between A Money Market Fund And A Stablecoin
Mon, 18 Sep 2023 20:59:17 -0000

Jim Bianco, Mark Yusko, & Jurrien Timmer on Real Interest Rates, Banking System, and Crypto (Panel at Permissionless 2023)


Jack Farley hosts Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital, and Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, for a panel on whether the near-term macro situation will be a headwind or tailwind for crypto. Filmed on September 12, 2023, at Blockworks' Permissionless II in Austin, Texas. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Is Macro A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto? (23:41) Will Fed Keep Interest Rates "Higher For Longer"? (28:53) The Banking System (34:14) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (39:58) Final Verdict: Will Macro Be A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto (Or Does It Not Matter)?
Sun, 17 Sep 2023 17:38:00 -0000

Mark Yusko: Macro "Doesn't Matter" For Crypto (Permissionless Interview)


Jack interviews Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital at Blockworks Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Macro Doesn't Matter For Crypto (05:24) 4 Main Factors That Affect Venture Capital (VC) Returns (13:59) Metcalfe's Law As A Valuation Framework (17:21) Mark Yusko: "I Am Not A Bitcoin Maximalist" (20:44) Mark Yusko: "I Am A Big China Bull"
Fri, 15 Sep 2023 22:08:08 -0000

Jim Bianco: No Recession, No Landing


Jack interviews Jim Bianco of Bianco Research at Blockworks Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) No Rate Cuts If Oil Prices Stay High (06:28) Jim Bianco: The Recession Already Happened In 2022 (15:11) What Is Appropriate Level On Interest Rates (And Bond Yields) For U.S. Economy? (24:59) A "Garden Variety Recession" Hasn't Occurred In Many Decades (33:28) Household's And Corporates' Terming Out Of Debt In 2020 (34:41) Mortgage Market Is Hurting Banks (42:55) Fixed-Income Outlook: Duration Vs. Credit (45:37) Jim Bianco: Macro Will Be A Headwind For Crypto (51:54) Increased Regulatory Scrutiny For Crypto
Thu, 14 Sep 2023 15:08:00 -0000

Andrew Beer: Hedge Funds Charge Way, Way Too Much


Andrew Beer, managing member of DBI, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the need for drastic fee reduction in hedge-fund like return vehicles. Beer and Farley explore in depth the mysteries of trend following (also known as CTAs or managed futures) strategies, which provide investors with positive carrying uncorrelated return streams that can be very beneficial in years such as 2022, when stocks and bonds both suffered a severe drawdown. Filmed on September 6, 2023. Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:04) Alpha & Beta (02:25) What Hedge Funds Do Well (11:17) Paying High Hedge Fund Feeds Is Like "Shooting Yourself In The Foot" (14:31) The Strategy of Managed Futures (or Commodity Trading Advisors) (29:40) The Rise of the "Pod Model" In Multi-Manager Hedge Funds (39:00) Picking Hedge Fund Managers Is A Largely Hopeless Task (44:29) Many Hedge Funds Have Missed The 2023 Tech Rally (50:24) Optimal Rebalancing Between Strategies (57:53) History Of Bad Ideas In Creation of New Investment Products: "Alternative Risk Premia" (59:42) A Lof Of Academic Finance Is Insane (01:01:20) The "Value Factor" As We Once Knew It No Longer Exists (01:16:36) Ark & Cathie Wood (01:25:51) China Was "Adored" By Hedge Fund Community
Tue, 12 Sep 2023 20:00:00 -0000

Eric Basmajian: Why The U.S. Economy Hasnt Entered Recession Yet (And Why He Is Confident It Will Soon)


Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share his view on the U.S. business cycle. Basmajian notes that the 2022 decline in economic growth rate turned into a remarkable stabilization of broad coincident indicators of economic activity that began in January 2023 and persisted throughout the spring stresses in the banking system. However, he remains confident that the U.S. economy will enter a recession soon, and he discusses in detail several of his leading indicators that motivate his view. Filmed on September 7, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Link to YCharts' Webinar on September 22nd: https://ycharts.zoom.us/webinar/register/5916933495668/WN_OD3x5xyzQ7qWTrtGDChLFA Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Pre-Recession Phase Continues (06:25) Housing And Autos Are Not Slowing Down That Much (13:19) Consumer Credit Is Still Somewhat Strong (For Now) (16:17) When Will Recession Come? (23:11) Pushing Back Against The Recessionary Thesis (30:14) How Far Will Unemployment Rate Go? (32:06) Does New Bull Market In Stocks Indicate There Will Be No Recession? (36:40) Debate On Mechanics Of How Higher Interest Rates Constrain Economic Activity (39:56) Banking System And Credit Crunch (52:35) Contraction In Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Is Signalling A Recession (01:00:23) What Is Eric's Level Of Confidence That U.S. Is Indeed Headed For A Recession? (01:09:47) Outlook on Rates & Bond Yields
Tue, 12 Sep 2023 18:07:00 -0000

Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The U.S. Economy? | Jeremy Schwartz & Professor Jeremy Seigel (Jacks Guest Appearance On Behind The Markets Podcast)


This is Jacks guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well as the banking system, which Jack shares his thoughts on in some depth. Recorded on September 1st, 2023. Original episode on Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley/id1194707802?i=1000626532544 Jeremy Siegels book, Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies: https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/0071800514 Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (04:58) Money Supply & Other Monetary Aggregates (07:21) Bond Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel About Non-Farm Payrolls (12:30) Professor Siegel's Short-Term Modestly Bullish View On Stocks (15:29) Stocks And The Economy (19:39) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of American Households (28:24) Jack's Views On Banking System
Fri, 08 Sep 2023 23:00:00 -0000

Milton Berg: The Stock Market Is In Trouble


When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed on September 5, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visithttps://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Milton Berg on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:09) Reviewing Milton Berg's Successful Bullish Call in January 2023 (07:23) Market Outlook Now (20:00) "This Market Is In A Lot Of Trouble (22:16) Eight Reasons To Doubt That This Bull Market Will Continue (28:05) Banking Index Often Bottoms Before General Stock Market Bull Move (30:14) High Interest Rates Are A Deflationary Force (36:26) Stock Market Not As Healthy As It Seems (56:16) Market Cycle Dates (01:05:54) Milton Berg No Longer Bullish On China (01:08:17) Anticipating the End Of This Rally (01:18:35) Bullish Call On Bank Index (01:24:13) Stocks Will Likely Decline Below Low Of October 2022, Argues Berg ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 06 Sep 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Wave of U.S. Treasury Issuance Puts Pressure On Bond Market | Prometheus Macro


On todays episode, Aahan Menon Founder of Prometheus Research joins the show for a discussion on his current macro outlook looking at the economy, growth, markets & liquidity. With a wave of U.S Treasury issuance on the horizon, Aahan explains why he now sees a perfect opportunity to be short stocks & bonds and he expects further headwinds for assets in this environment. To hear Aahan explain why, and much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Prometheus Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Progressing Through A Tightening Cycle (07:57) How To Measure Liquidity (15:51) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is On The Horizon (24:09) Is The Fed Behind The Curve? (29:10) Inflation (38:25) Credit Is Contracting, Just Not Enough... Yet (43:17) When To Shift From Short Stocks & Bonds (50:44) Private vs Public Sector Liquidity (59:41) Prometheus Research -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 05 Sep 2023 14:13:00 -0000

"Credit Shock" In Commercial Real Estate | John Toohig, Victor Calanog, and Thomas LaSalvia


Todays interview is a deep-dive into commercial real estate (CRE), an asset class which includes office, multifamily housing (apartments), hotels, data centers, malls, and more. Jack welcomes John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, Thomas LaSalvia, Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics, and Victor Calanog, Manulifes Managing Director & Global Head of Research and Strategy, Real Estate Private Markets, for a wide-ranging discussions on the challenges and opportunities within CRE, with a focus on how the recent interest rate shock has impacted property values, cash flows, interest expense, and other key metrics in the CRE world. Filmed on August 30, 2023. -- Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Follow Lets Talk Loans on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7103476860633718784/ Follow Moodys CRE Insights: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/ Moodys CRE piece on CMBS Office Loan Maturity: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/ma-cre-office-loan-maturity-monitor-office-payoffs-significantly-lag-other-property-types/ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:15) Payment Shock For Real Estate Funded With Debt Before The Fed Raised Rates (11:02 Maturity Defaults Are On The Rise (13:25) Office Sector Is By Far Facing The Biggest Challenges Vs. Other CRE Compenents (19:22) Who Owns The Equity In These CRE Deals? (22:25) Gap Between Private Valuations and Public Valuations (25:51) Higher For Longer Is Exponentially Increasing Debt Costs For Real Estate (30:03) State Of The Secondary Market For Real Estate Loans (35:14) Cash Flows Matter More Than "Loan-To-Value" (40:08) There's A Hesitation Right Now For Institutions To Take Losses (42:27) Odds Of A True Recessions vs. A "Slow-Cession" (and Soft Landing & No Landing) (45:35) How Common Is Interest Rate Hedging Among Leveraged Real Estate Investors? (48:01) Slowdown In New Originations For CRE Loans (52:46) Fundamnetals Of Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) (01:01:05) Negative Leverage In The MultiFamily Market (01:07:31) Insurance Costs Are Skyrocketing (01:10:54) Retail (example: Malls) And Hospitality (example: Hotels) (01:16:45) China (01:20:28) Closing Thoughts On U.S. Banking System (01:22:52) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 31 Aug 2023 18:06:00 -0000

David Rosenberg: A Recession Is Coming In The Next 6 Months


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year (09:27) Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative (20:20) What Causes A Recession? (24:56) How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates? (35:34) We Haven't Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet (42:02) The Politics Of Deficit Spending (47:01) There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market (59:37) How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be? (01:06:56) Fitch's AAA Downgrade (01:09:41) The Fed Has Overtightened (01:14:12) The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment (01:16:00) Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak? _____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 29 Aug 2023 21:46:00 -0000

Vincent Deluard: The Magic Money That Prevented Recession Is About To Disappear


In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of stealth stimulus would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow StoneX on Twitter https://twitter.com/stoneX_official Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The "Stealth Stimulus" Is Over (13:15) How Much Tightening Effect Of Higher Rates Has Already Been Felt? (18:55) Making Sense of 2023 Stock Market Rally (20:59) The Second Wave Of Inflation (26:40) Is Central Banks' Inflation Target Unnecessary? (41:13) Vincent's Bull Case For Non-U.S. Assets (46:49) China (49:52) Europe (53:29) Japan (55:35) Sector Analysis: Healthcare, Tech, Energy, Financials (59:14) Bearish View On U.S. Stocks (01:02:25) Bank Outlook After Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 28 Aug 2023 22:48:22 -0000

Business Cycle Slowdown Will Intensify Into Recession | Mike Singleton


Follow Mike Singletonhttps://twitter.com/InvictusMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Singleton's Macro Process (12:47) The Excess Savings Debate (17:06) U.S. Economy Headed For Severe Recession In 2023 (19:19) The Best Time To Buy Bonds (24:06) Unemployment Rate To Go As High As 7% (48:52) The Spending Boom ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 25 Aug 2023 11:00:00 -0000

ESG: The 40 Trillion Dollar Bubble | Mark Neuman


On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mark Neuman on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkNeuman18 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:vhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) The Origins Of ESG (04:32) Measuring ESG Investing (16:47) What Stocks Are Underowned Within The Indices? (24:00) Silicon Valley Bank (26:21) Show Me The Incentive & I'll Show You the Outcome (32:50) ExxonMobil, Tesla & FTX (43:59) Weighting Within ESG Funds (49:06) Did 2022 Mark A Turning Point For ESG Investing? (54:38) HERO: Healing The Environment Regenerating Ourselves -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 24 Aug 2023 11:58:00 -0000

The Next Chapter in Emerging Markets Investing | Marshall Stocker, Co-Head of Emerging Markets, Morgan Stanley


Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, shares his insight why country selection has a greater effect on excess returns than company selection, and shares his view on investment opportunities and challenges in China, Greece, India, South Africa, and other countries. Filmed at Camp Kotok in August 2023. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Country Allocation Is Greater Source of Excess Returns Than Company Selection (03:55) Greatest Country Overweight: Greece (07:32) Underweight South Africa and India (08:33) Can Governments Default On Debt Denominated In Currencies They Can Print? The Answer May Surprise You! (10:54) Could The U.S. Ever Have An "Emerging Market Debt Crisis"? (12:31) Chinese Equities ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 22 Aug 2023 02:23:00 -0000

Government Debt Crisis Has Hit U.S. Banks | Bill Isaac, Former FDIC Chair


Today Jack interviews William Bill Isaac, who served as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985. Isaac recounts his handling of large bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, including the collapse of Continental Illinois, which was the largest FDIC takeover until Washington Mutual in 2008. Isaac argues that at the core of banking issues is fiscal imprudence by the U.S. Congress which has caused inflation and rate volatility.Filmed on August 16, 2023. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ William "Bill" Isaac is Chairman of Secura/Isaac Group, a global advisory firm serving the financial services industry. Bill has an unparalleled career in the financial industry and public service, spanning over 50 years. He served as Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1978 through 1985, working to maintain stability during the banking and thrift crises of the 1980s, when over 3,000 banks and thrifts failed. He also served as Chairman of Fifth Third Bancorp. For more information on Bill's past and current work, visit securaisaac.com ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bill's Early Journey To The FDIC (03:23) Anatomy Of A Bank Failure (12:40) Does Technology Hasten Bank Runs? (21:30) Impact of High Interest Rates On Banking System (31:01) Fiscal Policy Is Out Of Control (40:48) Federal Reserve Should Play A Role In Fiscal Matters, Says Former FDIC Chair (49:07) Is Inflation Itself, And Not Debt, The True Problem? (Modern Monetary Theory) (56:10) Two Reasons Why Banks Fall (On Asset Side): Credit & Duration (01:08:28) Are Banking Issues In The U.S. Systemic? (01:16:42) Debating The Need For Zero Interest Rates After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timecodes:
Fri, 18 Aug 2023 15:00:00 -0000

The Banking System's Guardian Angel You've Never Heard Of | Michael Ericson & Dan Siciliano on Federal Home Loan Banks


Few outside the banking world grasp the true importance of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), whose collective loans to U.S. banks outpace the Federal Reserves by more than 10 to 1 as of summer 2023. Today Jack speaks to Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, and Dan Siciliano, chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB, about the FHLBs mission, capitalization, and implicit government guarantee. Ericson and Siciliano argue that the declining advances from FHLBs to U.S. banks since May 2023 may indicate an easing of liquidity pressures in the U.S. banking system. Filmed on August 15, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) About Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System (21:08) FHLB Is Much, Much Less Centralized Than The Federal Reserve (25:47) San Francisco FHLB Advances To Now-Defunct West Coast Banks (34:48) FHLB & Affordable Housing (38:07) What Caused Banks' Scramble For Cash in March 2023? (46:21) FHLB Implict Government Guarantee (57:24) How Have FHLBs Never Lost Any Money On Advances To Banks? (01:06:58) Interest Rate Hedging (01:08:31) Liquidity Issues In U.S. Banking System Have "Calmed Down Quite A Bit" (01:15:16) Capital Stock Of Federal Home Loan Banks (01:24:40) Will Regulators Attempt To Curb FHLB Lending To Non-Mission-Oriented Institutions? (01:28:00) Potential New FHFA Regulation of FHLB ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 15 Aug 2023 15:15:00 -0000

Ivy Zelman: Housing Market Downturn Isn't Over


Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. ____ To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email ted@zelmanassociates.com Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Zelman & Associates 2023 Virtual Housing Summit: Our 16th Annual Housing Summit continues to provide rich market content, lively panel discussions and fresh perspectives on the housing ecosystem that is unique to Zelman & Associates.Our panel discussions have C-Suite executives moderated by our elite team. We break down content, providing you with actionable insights that will help navigate the current market uncertainty and on into 2024. Zelman's ultimate goal (as always) was to provide you with the most accurate, in-depth and differentiated data and information to help you be successful in your endeavors. Registration Cost:$850.00 Special Discount:Email Kim Gray kim@zelmanassociates.comto register and mention this podcast for a 25% discount! Housing Summit Event Page: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/conference_home.html?bank_access=0&event_id=96353 Housing Summit Agenda: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/__agenda_cp.html Why Attend Our Housing Summit: Deemed The Best Housing-Related Conference of Year Attended by over 1,000 Institutional Investors and Industry Executives Thought-Provoking Panels Across The Housing Mosaic Corporate Access for Investors and Unique Networking Opportunities A Whos Who of Housing with all of the major public and private prevailing thought leaders in attendance About Zelman & Associates: Extensive macro, sector and company-specific equity research, exclusive industry surveys, stock recommendations, and insights leveraging our constant flow of real-time data. Our insights help connect the dots between all aspects of the housing mosaic to inform strategies and decisions rooted in confidence. Serving institutional investors, corporations, private equity, fixed income, private investors, RIAs and more. https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Resilience Of The U.S. Housing Market (09:28) Comparing the 2020 Housing Boom to the Early 2000s Housing Boom (13:43) Commercial Real Estate: Multifamily Housing (Apartment Buildings) (20:58) Shelter's Contribution To Overall Consumer Price Inflation (22:35) Housing's Impact On Banking System (25:53) Forecasts For Single-Family Housing (32:20) Supply of Housing (38:53) Outlook on Homebuilding Industry (43:42) Negative Outlook On Home Improvement Industry (48:22) Market For Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (51:06) The Fed Was Supporting The Market With Free Money (52:37) Macro Outlook
Sun, 13 Aug 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Fitch's U.S Debt Downgrade Was Justified | Danielle DiMartino Booth


Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok. We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade (07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch's Debt Downgrade (11:41) We Took MMT On A Test Drive & It Crashed Into The Wall (15:06) The Path Ahead For U.S Debt Issuance (19:58) Commercial Real Estate (23:19) Where Are We In The Cycle? (26:25) Oppenheimer Or Barbie? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 12 Aug 2023 13:00:00 -0000

Rate Cuts May Not End Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart


Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation. Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Inflation (05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates (08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy (10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target (16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target? (21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 11 Aug 2023 20:30:00 -0000

Inside Camp Kotok | David Kotok on Disastrous and Debilitating Effect Of Debt Ceiling on Bond Markets


David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to Camp Kotok with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of Camp Kotok and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitchs recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023. David Kotok's analysis on the debt ceiling: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cost-debt-ceiling-crisis About Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:10) The History Of Camp Kotok (11:11) Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S. Treasury Debt (20:56) 2023 Debt Ceiling Drama Imposed Real Cost On Borrowing Rates (28:58) Alternatives To The Global Dollar System (31:29) Anecdote From Municipal Bond Market (35:46) Will Interests Rates Go Even Higher? (38:32) The Federal Reserve's Assistance To The U.S. Banking Sector In 2023
Fri, 11 Aug 2023 16:00:00 -0000

Rumors Of The Death of Chinese Economys Have Been Greatly Exaggerated | Leland Miller


Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023. Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess (06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed (09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many Expect
Thu, 10 Aug 2023 20:09:28 -0000

The Feds Inflation Fight Isnt Over | Jim Bianco & Samuel Rines (Camp Kotok)


Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leens Lodge for the first week of Camp Kotok. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:22) The Bond Market (12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco (17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt (18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel Rines
Tue, 01 Aug 2023 18:01:00 -0000

The Sovereign Debt Spiral | James Lavish


James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. ____ Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavish Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt (16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral (28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money (42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option (49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System (58:36) Why Just Bitcoin? (01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund (01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are, In Fact, Securities (01:11:44) The Economy & The Federal Reserve (01:15:04) Tether (01:17:15) Optimal Macro Environment For Bitcoin ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 27 Jul 2023 18:55:16 -0000

The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & Andy Constan


Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visithttps://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/crossbordercap ___ Follow Andy Constan on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors:https://dampedspring.com/ More info on Crossborder Capital:http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Michael Howells Substack:https://capitalwars.substack.com/ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity (04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake (11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising? (18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity (31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"? (44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo (53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks (59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade (01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)? (01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell (01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 26 Jul 2023 23:40:00 -0000

Julian Brigden: Markets "On A Knife's Edge" After July Fed Meeting


Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year. Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Feds interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a knifes edge and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates. Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference at the close of the meeting of the Feds Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of Insider Talks on Real Vision Pro. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Something Has To Crack (11:01) Hyperfinancialization Means Employment Will Stay High As Long As Stocks Keep Going Up (22:09) Recession Risk (26:41) What's More Likely, A Fall in Stocks Or A Fall In Bonds? (32:34) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Comparison To Subprime Mortgages In 2007 (36:17) Is The Bond Market Still The "Smart Money"? (40:30) Is Liquidity Rising Or Falling? (43:26) Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions... Right? (Maybe No Longer!) (45:40) U.S. Housing Market (49:32) Julian's Bear Case For The U.S. Dollar (01:06:47) German Economy Is Very Sluggish (01:08:34) China (01:14:41) Will Japanese Interest Rates Be At Zero Forever? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 24 Jul 2023 19:32:44 -0000

Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply


Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on todays very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasurys renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SECs new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market (05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data (14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed (23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds? (31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields (34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? (42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time? (46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade (49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 22 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley


Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- In this episode I join the On The Margin podcast with Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week. With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 21 Jul 2023 17:50:00 -0000

Bullishness Approaching Mania | Peter Atwater on Market Psychology And The Confidence Map


Peter Atwater, Adjunct Professor of Economics at William and Mary, and author of The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity joins Forward Guidance to diagnose the sentiment thats driving the current (unofficial) bull market in risk. Follow Peter Atwater on Twitter https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Peter Atwaters book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity: https://peteratwater.com/the-confidence-map-2/ The Confidence Map on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559#:~:text=The%20Confidence%20Map%20is%20a,that%20too%20often%20feels%20senseless. ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Blue Sky Optimism Has Gripped The Stock Market (06:13) The Bubble Can ALWAYS Get Bigger (15:56) Sentiment On Recession Has Changed Massively (21:28) The Confidence Map (33:00) Passive Investing (39:09) Finding Extreme Sentiments In Markets (43:04) U.S. Banking System (45:46) The K-Shaped Recovery, 3 Years Later (57:04) Psychology Of The Federal Reserve (01:01:14) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 18 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

OPEC To The Rescue | Rory Johnstons Cautious Bull Case For >$80 Oil


Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now cautiously bullish on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabias significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023. ____ Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Johnstons latest Substacks on Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) An "Exhausting" Oil Market (02:59) The Cautious Bull Case For Oil (11:28) OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices (24:20) Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop? (31:36) Guyana (34:22) Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies (49:13) The Russian Supply Question (54:55) Price Cap (59:02) Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil (01:03:10) The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls (01:09:02) Futures Curve (01:15:07) Recession Risk ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 16 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Recession Paradox | Alfonso Peccatiello


Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:06:34) When Recession? Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 13 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Laws Of Quantitative Investing | Michael Robbins


On todays episode Michael Robbins, CIO of Larson Financial & Professor Of Quantitative Investing at Columbia University joins the show for a discussion on the quantitative investing strategy. Authoring the book "Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing" Michael takes us back to the very basics in answering what is quantitive investing, what actually causes markets to go up, why most investors are NOT stock pickers and how a quantitive strategy can help manage risk & create sizeable returns. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29076 Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing: http://quantitativeassetmanagement.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is Quantitative Investing? (02:24) Selling Fast & Buying Slow (05:26) What Causes Stocks To Go Up? (09:02) Are Rising Rates Actually Bad For Stocks? (15:11) Stock vs Bond Arbitrage Strategies (17:37) The VXX ETF (24:11) Most People Are NOT Stock Pickers (29:54) Risk Management (35:14) What Are The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make? (44:31) Being Early Is The Same As Being Wrong (49:37) What Indicators Are Worth Following With A Quantitative Strategy? (56:41) Liquidity (01:00:07) The Five Factors Of Investing (01:05:55) Investing Using Artificial Intelligence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 11 Jul 2023 18:36:00 -0000

The Basel III Endgame: Bank Regulation In A Post-SVB World | Steven Kelly


Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the Federal Reserves forthcoming plans to increase capital requirements for U.S. banks. Filmed on July 11, 2023. ____ Follow Steven Kelly on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Kellys latest Without Warning Substack:https://www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-story-of-svb-isnt-just ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:45) Bank Capital Ratios, Explained (18:52) Busting Myths About Banks' Interest Rate Hedging (38:15) Accounting For Unrealized Losses (46:56) How Much Money Is Leaving the Banking System? (54:16) U.S. Banking System Is "Stable But More Fragile" (01:02:47) The Basel III Endgame (01:05:54) Interest Rates And Financial Stability ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 10 Jul 2023 22:25:00 -0000

Vtor Constncio, Former Vice President of European Central Bank (ECB) on Inflation, Interest Rates, and The Global Banking System


Vtor Constncio witnessed firsthand severe recessions, inflationary bouts, and a global financial crisis, as former Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) (2010 to 2018) and Governor of The Bank of Portugal (1985-1986, 2000-2010). He brings this considerable experience to examine the current challenges facing central bankers at the ECB as well as the Fed. Constncio argues that while U.S. inflation is driven by a strong demand generated by loose fiscal policy, the primary agent of European inflation was the surge in energy prices in 2022. However, he recognizes that what began as supply-side pressure has broadened out to other sectors of the Euro area economy, so the ECBs hiking of interest rates to 4% was necessary. Constancio expects that a mild recession in Europe will tame inflation and that substantial further rate hikes from the ECB will likely not be needed. Filmed on July 6, 2023. ____ Follow Vtor Constncio on Twitter https://twitter.com/VMRConstancio Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Euro Area Inflation Is Mostly Due To Energy Shock, Not Demand (08:13) I Would Support A Pause In Interest Rate Hikes, Says Constancio (10:11) Recession In Europe Is Likely For 2023 (14:35) ECB Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates During A Mild Recession (16:20) There Pressure on The European Central Bank (ECB) To Follow The Federal Reserve? (20:44) Exploring The Logic Of Negative Interest Rates (25:29) Interest Rates' Impact On The Economy (32:04) Fixed vs. Floating Mortgages (34:48) ECB's Reaction Function During The 2008 Great Financial Crisis (44:16) Recent Bank Failures (Silicon Valley Bank) (49:51) Credit Suisse (51:51) Basel III Regulation of Held-To-Matuity Accounts and Interest Rate Hedging (54:47) Fighting Inflation In 1970s Portugal ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 09 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Railroad Recession & Airline Boom | Jay Shabat on Planes & Trains


On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023. After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/ Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) The State Of Airlines In 2023 (03:09) How The Pandemic Impacted The Airline Industry (10:32) We're Not Seeing An Economic Slowdown Yet (20:40) International Travel (25:06) Why Airlines Aren't A Great Business (29:15) The Airline Industry Would Have Gone Bankrupt If Not For Government Assistance (36:20) The State Of Freight In 2023 (51:44) Consolidation In The Freight Industry (57:40) What Can Freight Tell Us About The U.S Economy? (01:10:02) How Do Airlines Hedge? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 06 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Price of Time | Edward Chancellor & Joseph Wang


Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.The Price of Time:https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069 ____ Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=en Follow Joseph Wang on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wangs YouTube channel:https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featured Joseph Wangs writings can be found athttps://fedguy.com/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles (11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard (18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad (30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital (37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity (45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos (46:44) Unicorns and Zombies (54:20) Elite Overproduction (57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 03 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Little-Known Entity Thats Lent Over $1 Trillion To U.S. Banks (10x The Fed!) | Professor Kathryn Judge on The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System


Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserves recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June. What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the lender of second-to-last resort. Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SECs move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFRs replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023. ____ Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudge Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Kathryn Judges book, Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven" (03:06) What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System? (07:24) Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s (11:22) Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And GlassSteagall) (17:31) FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (25:14) "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances" (33:54) FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop (34:28) Permissionless (41:24) What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like? (50:38) Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations (53:42) Blockworks Research (54:42) Held-To-Maturity Accounting (58:37) The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business (01:06:00) SEC's War With Crypto (01:08:04) The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 02 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

What The Oil Bulls Got Wrong | Michael Kao & Alexander Stahel on the Chinese Yuan & Oil "Doom Loop"


-- On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets. Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023. Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023 (13:47) Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply? (23:43)Forecasting Oil Prices (31:05) European Gas Prices (33:37) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:41) Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis (41:34) Chinese Oil Demand (01:01:33) Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market (01:17:23) Oil Has Further Downside Risk (01:24:13) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 01 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? | Weekly Round Up


Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing? Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 30 Jun 2023 14:30:00 -0000

Fed Will Hike Rates Into Economic Train Wreck | Danielle DiMartino Booth


To get $1,000 off an annual subscription to QI Pro, Danielle DiMartino Booths institutional-grade research service, go to https://quillintelligence.com/register/qi-pro-friends-of-farley/. $3,000 instead of $4,000 for the first year, offer ends in July. Interested parties may request a sample report of QI Pro by emailing Danielle DiMartino Booth at danielle@dimartinobooth.com. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance on a mission to dispute the notion that the U.S. economy is strong. Booth challenges the apparently-rosy economic data and points to where the data is either very lagging or, as she says about the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, painfully corrupted. Booth explains why she expects inflation to continue to fall very sharply, and why she expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at least one more time in July (and perhaps again in September). Filmed on June 20, 2023. -- Follow Danielle: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Laying Inflation To Rest (07:43) Shortages Have Become Gluts (09:32) Housing Is Strong, Right? (14:04) Hidden Cracks In The Labor Market (16:49) Official Bureau of Labor Data Is "Painfully Corrupted" (24:23) Global Economic Impulse Is Disinflationary (28:56) Liquidity Is NOT Increasing, Says Danielle (35:04) QI Pro Discount (39:06) Fed Will Likely Hike Rates In July (And Maybe September), Says Danielle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 26 Jun 2023 21:09:00 -0000

The Fate Of Global Dollar Credit | Robert McCauley & Joseph Wang on Eurodollars, FX Swaps, and SOFR


Todays special guest is a true expert in global money. Robert McCauleys life work on the international monetary system is authoritative and seminal, and he joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang to answer questions such as: - how do Eurodollars actually work? - is the rest of the world long or short dollars? (the answer may surprise you) - how does the level of the dollar mechanically impact offshore dollar credit? McCauley confirms many rumors about Eurodollars (offshore dollars), as well as debunks several of their myths. He shares his view on the dollars role in the future of global money, and he details the astronomically large sums in the FX swap market used to hedge dollar exposure. McCauley also asks Joseph Wang a question about the fall of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) and the rise of SOFR (secured overnight financing rate). Filmed on June 21, 2023. Robert McCauley is the Senior Fellow at the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. He previously served as senior advisor to the monetary & economics department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as well as at the New York Fed. -- Robert McCauleys Eighth Edition of Manias, Panics, and Crashes: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/03/22/manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/ On Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/303116007X Robert McCauleys papers referenced during the show: The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/02/09/the-global-domain-of-the-dollar-eight-questions/ Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf Seven decades of international banking: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2109e.pdf The International Economic and Financial Order After the Pandemic and War, pages 123-128: https://media.iese.edu/research/pdfs/76606.pdf London as a financial centre since Brexit: evidence from the 2022 BIS Triennial Survey: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull65.pdf Joseph Wangs latest piece on SOFR (paywalled): https://fedguy.com/long-live-sofr/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wangs YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) Origin Of The Eurodollar System (19:46) Eurodollar Deposits Rarely Take Losses, But Silicon Valley Bank's Eurodollars Are In Limbo And May Be Lost (26:12) Can Non-U.S. Banks Print Dollar Deposits At Will? (39:50) Banking As A Percentage of GDP Peaked Many Years Ago (43:14) Is The Rest Of The World Long Dollars, Or Short Dollars? (53:49) Is The De-Dollarization Narrative Just A Lot Of Hot Air? (01:11:49) Who's Going To Buy U.S. Treasurys? (01:20:38) The Dollar's Role Does Not Give The U.S. An "Exorbitant Privilege" (01:24:29) $35 Trillion Dollar Hidden Debt Via FX Swaps (01:38:05) Robert McCauley's Question For Joseph Wang On SOFR & LIBOR -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 25 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Shiny New Derivative Thats Taken Over Wall Street | Kris Sidial on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options & Tail Risk During A Volatility Bear Market


With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what its like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol). Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023. -- Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Ambrus paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling+False+Narratives+About+0DTE+Options.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:16) Market Volatility Is At A Three-Year Low (07:34) Implied Volatility Could Go Even Lower (15:14) Tail Risk Strategies (36:01) The Stunning Rise Of Zero Days To Expiration (0DTE) Options (41:29) Huge Amounts Of Unregulated Leverage In 0DTE Options (52:31) Market Crash Is "Inevitable" Because Of Zero Day To Expiration Options (01:04:14) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (01:07:52) Performance Reporting of Tail Fund Risk Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 24 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Return Of The Bull Market? | On The Margin Round Up


Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 22 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Michael Howell: "QE Is Coming Back, Big Time"


Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity. -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market (07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here? (27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn (32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples (40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan (47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds (54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds (56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates? (01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us (01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System (01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual" (01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections (01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up) (01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 19 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi


Louis Camhi, founder and chief investment officer of RLH Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to provide a strategic update on the world of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies). ___ Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:58) "A Lot Of The Optionality of SPACs Is Dead" (17:25) State of SPAC Dealflow In Summer 2023 (32:08) Warrant Arbitrage (59:43) SPAC LIquidiation Wave in December 2022 Because of Stock Buyback Tax Threat In Inflation Reduction Act (01:06:49) "SPACs Are A Bull Market Product" (01:20:02) How SPAC Yields Have Changed With RIsing Interest Rates (01:29:17) Macroeconomic Implications (01:32:07) View on Banks (01:38:26) Cannabis ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 15 Jun 2023 04:15:00 -0000

Jay Powells Plan To Kill The Fed Put | Danielle DiMartino Booth


Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserves decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 14 Jun 2023 22:07:00 -0000

Did The Fed Just Back Down? | Joseph Wang & Michael Ippolito


On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Jun 2023 20:57:00 -0000

Higher For Longer | Robert Kaplan, Former Dallas Fed President & CEO


Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplans website:https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing (01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) (05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes (06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress? (15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves (16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present (24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt? (25:10) Future Economic Outlook (29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil (39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle (41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve (50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now (53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)? (55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy (59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital (01:02:41) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Holy Grail of Macro Investing | Eric Crittenden


On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing. Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Finding Opportunities Using A Macro Trend Strategy (04:21) Why Eric Has Been Long Japan, U.S & Europe In 2023 (08:54) Generating Returns Using A Quantitative Strategy (15:27) How Market Structure Has Changed Since The 1980's (18:06) Shorting Oil In 2023 (20:45) Permissionless (21:22) Market Hedging (27:53) Market Liquidity (29:49) Launching Standpoint In 2020 (33:18) Artificial Intelligence (39:49) Blockworks Research (40:49) Harvesting Risk Premium (49:51) Eric's Principles For Successful Trading (55:19) What Will AI's Role Be In Financial Markets? (59:39) The Psychology Of Macro Trend (01:03:39) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 09 Jun 2023 20:23:00 -0000

The Music Is About To Stop: John Toohig & Randy Woodward on Bank Lending, Deflation, and Secondary Loan Liquidity


Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return. Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023. ____ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Toohigs latest edition of Lets Talk Loans on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3D Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market (27:25) Permissionless (28:03) Commercial Real Estate (35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs (41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending" (51:49) Blockworks Research (52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020 (57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses (01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks (01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates? (01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit (01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 07 Jun 2023 19:45:00 -0000

Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker


Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute hottest hand when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year. Quoting George Soros saying that, when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it, Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023. Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:51Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Already A Bubble? 28:21 The Lipstick Effect 32:50 How Can These Rich Valuations Be Justified? 41:57 Permissionless 42:34 The Losers of The Rise of Artificial Intelligence 50:43 Blockworks Research
Tue, 06 Jun 2023 22:34:22 -0000

Coinbase Sued By SEC | Casey Wagner


The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down. Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks: Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities ____ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 06 Jun 2023 17:39:00 -0000

The Fed Put Still Lives | Vincent Daniel


Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing. Immortalized in The Big Short, Vincents interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s ____ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.4% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance ____ Follow Vincent Daniel on Twitter https://twitter.com/VD718 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The Current Setup (06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally? (09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks (13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution (21:17) Public.com (22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds (26:24) Outlook on Stocks (29:47) Importance of Stop-Losses (31:12) How Much Research Before Taking A Position? (32:33) Concentration Risk/Reward: How Many Positions? (34:10) Why Vincent (and Porter) Shorted Banks Before Silicon Valley Bank Collapse (39:31) Banks' Moats Are Less Valuable Now, Says Vincent (42:58) Bank Run Risk Is Higher Now Than During Great Financial Crisis (44:52) Core Tier 1 Is Nonsense (54:01) Private Equity (01:02:30) Can High Debt Levels Hanlde High Interest Rates? (01:06:09) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (01:07:57) Vincent's Views On Bank Stocks Going Forward (01:12:46) Energy Stocks (01:17:00) "The Fed Put Never Died (01:19:19) Views On Recession Risk: "It's Hard For Me To See A Reflationary Boom" (01:21:52) Uranium ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 06 Jun 2023 00:38:00 -0000

Joseph Wang & Alex Etra: Trillion-Dollar Liquidity Drain Imminent


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Alex Etra Senior Macro Strategist at Exante Data & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show for a discussion on the path ahead for H2 2023. Reflecting on the record bond losses in 2022, Alex shares his outlook on what to expect in the second half of 2023 as bond fund managers experience inflows and tech related equities continue surging higher despite the bearish sentiment in the broader market. We then move on to some of the monetary plumbing implications amidst the debt ceiling resolution and what impact it could have on markets as the U.S Treasury looks to re fill is dwindling Treasury General Account. To hear all this & more. you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show: Back to 2019: https://fedguy.com/back-to-2019/ Money: Inside and Out: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Preparing For June FOMC (05:23) Will The Fed Hike, Skip Or Cut? (07:25) Back To 2019 (10:35) Permissionless (11:13) The Mechanics of The Treasury Cash-Futures Basis Trade (19:07) The Path Ahead In H2 2023 (25:47) Reflecting On The Bond Markets Performance In 2022 (34:21) Will A New Investor Class Replace Japanese Investors? (38:31) Equity Flows (43:46) Blockworks Research (44:46) Why Are Equity Markets Performing So Well In 2023? (51:51) The Mechanics of The U.S. Treasury, General Account (01:01:04) Quantitative Tightening: Is The Reverse Repo Heading Higher? (01:05:32) How Alex Tracks Market Flows -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 01 Jun 2023 12:42:00 -0000

Rate Hikes Are Inflationary, Says Warren Mosler, Godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)


Warren Mosler, founder of Valance Co., Inc. and author of The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy, is widely viewed as the intellectual godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a framework for understanding money and debt which underscores a governments ability to print money to pay for goods and services without relying necessarily on borrowing or taxation. Mosler joins Forward Guidance to apply these ideas to todays financial issues. He argues why a failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling would be truly catastrophic, and he makes the case that the Feds rate hikes are actually contributing to inflation, rather than fighting it, because the government is printing more money in order to pay its debt. Filmed on May 30, 2023. ____ Follow Warren Mosler on Twitter https://twitter.com/wbmosler Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Warrens website: https://moslereconomics.com/ Warrens book and other writings: https://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ (00:00) Risk Of Government Unwind Would Be Catastrophic (07:24) "Money Is Just A Series Of Dots Going On And Off In People's Bank Accounts" (14:52) The Federal Reserve Prints Money (19:07) The Government Spends First, Taxes and Borrows Second (31:23) Permissionless (32:01) Quantitative Easing Does Not Have An Actual Effect On The Economy (33:17) High Interest Rates Mean More Deficit Spending (48:29) Challenging The Narrative of Volcker As The Slayer Of Inflation Dragon (54:00) Challenging The Wage Price Spiral (01:01:13) Currency Itself Is A "Public Monopoly" (01:04:04) We Are NOT In A Recession, Says Mosler (01:11:21)Is The Solution To Inflation To Cut Government Spending? (01:16:30) Blockworks Research (01:17:28) The Debt Ceiling (01:24:08) The Dollar
Sun, 28 May 2023 00:50:00 -0000

The Debt Ceiling Approaches | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut


Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Macro Hive return to Forward Guidance to update listeners on the U.S. debt ceiling, which may be breached as early as June. Filmed on May 25, 2023. To access a 40% discount to an annual subscription of Macro Hive Prime, go to www.macrohive.com/jack. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Twitter https://twitter.com/firstkicktires Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_f Josephs latest piece on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/probing-lclor/ Joseph Wang YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) The Debt Ceiling (10:09) What Happens When The Treasury Runs Out Of Money? (18:20) Will The Fed Come To Rescue? (Yes, Say Dominique & Joseph) (27:19) What Counts As A "Default"? (32:21) MacroHive (32:57) How Might The Market React? (36:05) Are These "Magical Measures" Just A Temporary Fix? (37:50) Payment Prioritization (41:45) U.S. Treasury's Non-Marketable Debt Will Play A Key Role (50:02) Potential For "Huge Liquidity Drain" As Treasury Plans On Issuing $1 Trillion In Bills Over The Next Six Months (01:01:10) Dominique and Joseph's Views On The Economy (01:08:20) Joseph's Updated Views On Banks
Fri, 26 May 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Long Stocks, Long Dollar, Short Gold | Jason Shapiro


Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of The Crowded Market Report, joins Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to share his contrarian trading style and to explain why he remains long stocks even after this years huge equity rally. Shapiro shares wisdom from his long career of trading, as well as why he is long the dollar and short gold. Filmed on May 25, 2023. ____ Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Jason's Early Years In Hong Kong (01:47) "Too Much Leverage Is A Bad Thing" (04:52) Importance of Journaling Your Trades (07:37) The Essence Of Successful Contrarianism (09:54) Why Jason Has Been Bullish On Stocks All Year (14:42) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report (17:54) Why Jason Is Short Gold (22:28) Permissionless (23:03) Futures Positioning vs. Positioning Of The Whole Market (28:22) Why Are Speculators Wrong At Extremes? (34:20) Why CTAs Performed So Poorly This Year (Commodity Trading Advisor) (40:22) Blockworks Research (41:22) You Need Confirmation From The Market (46:38) Long Stocks, Short Gold Remains High Conviction Trade (48:57) Stop Losses (50:36) Bank Stocks (51:55) Why Jason Is Short The Euro (53:12) Risk of Recession and Debt Ceiling (01:09:26) Why Vast Majority Of Investors Don't Beat The Index ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 22 May 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Bull Market In Oil Is Over (For Now) | Paul Sankey


On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Oil market veteran Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical vs secular trends in the oil market that investors should be paying attention to. Highlighting how the current market is extremely difficult to trade directionally, as oil remains rangebound after it's 2022 highs of over $100 a barrel, Paul outlines both the supply & demand picture in 2023. Paul goes on to explain the four structural drivers of oil prices, energy companies profitability with oil sitting around the $70 mark & what investors can expect throughout the rest of 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Paul on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Paul's Oil Market Outlook (10:25) Oil Companies Profitability (11:37) Why Is Oil Demand Lower Than Expected In 2023? (17:40) Why Is This Oil Market So Tough To Trade? (19:42) The Four Structural Drivers Of Oil Prices (22:52) Permissionless (23:55) Are Oil Equties Cheap? (35:28) The Political Cycle Is Shorter Than The Energy Cycle (39:18) How Does Oil Perform During A Recession? (44:44) The Economics Of ESG (47:03) Blockworks Research (48:02) Warren Buffett Continues Buying $OXY (54:09) The Correlation Between Bank Stocks & Oil (57:26) Sankey Research (01:02:23) Small & Mid Size Oil Companies In Canada -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 19 May 2023 14:40:00 -0000

The Return Of Bank Runs | Sheila Bair, Former FDIC Chair


During her tenure as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011, Sheila Bair managed over 300 bank failures, including the collapse of Washington Mutual in September 2008, the largest bank failure in American history. Bair joins Forward Guidance to apply her vast experience to share insight on recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic. Filmed the afternoon of May 18, 2023. ____ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. ____ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Sheila Bair on Twitter https://twitter.com/SheilaBair2013 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Right Now, The Main Issue Is Interest Rate Risk (12:56) What Causes A Bank Run? (17:55)Are Bank Runs Faster In An Age of Mobile Banking? (21:55) Van Eck Ad (22:45) Money Market Funds and The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Is Where A Lot Of Bank Money Is Going (25:33) Risk Of Further Big Bank Consolidation (29:51) Best Time To Shut Down A Bank Is Friday Night (31:10) Federal Reserve Lending To Insolvent Institutions Increases The FDIC's Cost To Resolve Failed Banks (32:53) How To Know When To Shut Down A Failing Bank (34:51) "I Was Surprised At The Biden Administration's Level Of Involvement" (37:12) The Systemic Risk Determination, Explained (42:56) 2018 Loosening Of Regulation of Regional Banks (47:35) Forcing Banks To Raise More Equity (i.e. sell stock) (49:31) The Federal Reserve's Role As Bank Regulator ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 18 May 2023 14:15:00 -0000

Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China


Nicholas Glinsman, macro investor and co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on banks, commercial real estate, and China. Glinsman says that he and his partner Harald Malmgren expect a ban on new foreign investment into China will be imminently passed via executive order of U.S. President Biden. ____ Malmgren Glinsman Partners is a research partner of Forward Guidance. To get discounted access to the Malmgren Glinsman Daily note (Ahead Of The Heard), go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Forward%2520Guidance?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgern-glinsman-partners-daily-ahead-of-the-herd And use code Forward Guidance at checkout to get a discounted rate of $900/year. Ahead of The Heard typically is released at a daily cadence so subscribers can expect 5-6 issues per week. To obtain access to Malmgren Glinsmans institutional product, a long-form research note aiming to flag for large institutional investors important market-driving issues before they hit the news, go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Blockworks?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgren-institutional-research And use code Blockworks for discounted rate of $40,000 / year. Clients can be expect publication of research 1-4 times per month. ____ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The De-Dollarization Narrative (04:28) Maybe The Fed Is Not Done Hiking? (05:48) Banking System (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (32:30) Views on Bond Yields and Volatility (42:10) China and Reverse CFIUS (01:18:07) Imminent Ban On Foreign Investment Into China Is Coming, Says Glinsman ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 15 May 2023 16:54:18 -0000

The Fed's Playbook for Fighting Bank Panics, Now vs. The Great Depression | Dr. Jane Knodell


Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and Author joins the show for a historical comparison between the previous bank runs & the banking turmoil of 2023. Knodell reflects on the development of the U.S banking system throughout history, the measures taken today to curb deposit flight and how the Federal Reserve ultimately became the lender of last resort. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Referenced In The Show: Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve: A Historical Perspective on Wartime Amendments to the Federal Reserve Act: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368342410_Making_a_Central_Bank_Out_of_the_Federal_Reserve_A_Historical_Perspective_on_Wartime_Amendments_to_the_Federal_Reserve_Act Fighting Financial Crises Learning from the Past Gary B. Gorton and Ellis W. Tallman: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo26527334.html Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Historial Comparisons To 2023's Banking Turmoil (02:37) The Difference Between Solvency & Liquidty In A Bank Run (07:17) Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve (11:42) The Role of Gold In The Federal Reserve's History (17:00) Why Did Gold Flee To The Fed In 1917? (22:57) Permissionless ad (24:00) The Federal Reserve: The Lender Of Last Resot (29:51) How Has The Banking System Developed Throughout U.S History? (35:21) The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (38:11) The Bank Term Funding Program (41:14) All Roads Lead Back To Congress (46:50) Learning From The Lesson's Of The Great Depression (55:37) The Looming Debt Ceiling (58:19) Blockworks Research (59:20) The Trillion Dollar Coin Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 12 May 2023 17:45:00 -0000

Why Bank Money Is Disappearing | Patrick Perret-Green


Last year, Patrick Perret-Green, veteran bond trader and macro strategist, warned his clients that plummeting liquidity at regional U.S. banks could cause serious issues. Now that these issues have made themselves apparent with the fall of three U.S. banks, Perret-Green of PPG Macro joins Forward Guidance to share his views on bank liquidity, loan growth, and credit risks within banks as well as shadow banks. Filmed on May 11, 2023. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/PPGMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:28) Patrick's 2022 Warnings About Banks (10:33) Credit Risks (15:49) Shadow Banking System (19:35) Permissionless (20:38) Loan Growth (29:17) Global Liquidity Is Collapsing (34:32) Foreign Banks Are Having Issues (37:20) The Pain Trade Is For The Dollar To Go Higher (40:11) Rate Hikes "An Economic War Crime"? (43:34) Commercial Real Estate (49:42) Bank Run Risks (56:14) Blockworks Research (57:16) Where Are Interests Rates Headed? (01:00:54) China (01:08:50) Closing Thoughts
Thu, 11 May 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Why The U.S. Dollar Could Fall Even In A Recession | Jens Nordvig


Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors. ____ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData Follow MarketReader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:27) Tracking Capital Flows (01:43) Where Is The Money Going? (19:53) The Dollar And The Euro (25:30) Blockworks Research (26:29) Is The "De-Dollarization Narrative" Backed Up By The Data? (38:04) Is China Actually Dumping U.S. Treasurys? (41:14) Central Banks' Swap-Adjusted FX Reserves Do Not Show Significant De-Dollarization (46:18) Bearish Near-Term Case For The Dollar (57:14) Permissionless (58:15) About MarketReader's Emerging Artificial Intelligence Capabilities (01:11:52) Closing thoughts On The Dollar & Stock Market Correlation ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 08 May 2023 11:06:00 -0000

Michael Pettis: China's Economic Growth Model Is Dying


Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:40) China's Economic Growth Model (18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China (26:01) Van Eck ad (26:51) Domestic Consumption In China (35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works (39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble (43:20) Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China (49:01) Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue (01:00:46) The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy (01:02:45) Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity? (01:04:55) Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S. (01:08:28) Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough
Thu, 04 May 2023 22:55:00 -0000

The Feds "Controlled Demolition" of The Financial System | Danielle DiMartino Booth


Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her thoughts on May 3rds Federal Reserves meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the ongoing issues at several regional U.S. banks. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. (00:00) Intro (11:02) When Will The Fed Pivot (Cut Rates)? (15:40) Powell Wants To Get Rid Of The Fed Put (25:20) Calling Inflation "Transitory" Was "A Path To Hell" (29:11) "Powell Will Stand His Ground" (34:30) Permissionless (35:34) The Balance Sheet (40:17) Powell Won't Save The Banks (47:41) Blockworks Research (48:41) The Debt Ceiling (54:08) "This Is Going To Be A Really Ugly Recession" (58:03) Door To A June Hike Is Ajar (59:11) The Bernanke Doctrine (01:01:26) Danielle's Views On Private Credit Are Evolving
Thu, 04 May 2023 16:55:00 -0000

Nick Timiraos: The Fed Doesn't Want Bank Failures In The News


Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage joins Jack Farley to share his analysis of yesterdays meeting of the Federal Reserves Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed at 10am ET on May 4, 2023. --- Timiraos' article on May 3 Fed meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-rates-signals-potential-pause-eb264784 Timiraos article on 2006 hiking cycle: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-fed-debate-17-years-ago-reveals-about-its-rate-deliberations-now-4835936 Timiraos book, Trillion Dollar Triage: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817 --- Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ --- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 03 May 2023 21:58:00 -0000

Fed Downplays Bank Crisis As Another Bank Teeters | Jim Bianco


Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Forward Guidance to break down the Federal Reserves meeting on May 3rd, during which Fed Chair Powell noted that conditions in the banking sector have improved. Shortly thereafter, shares of PacWest Bank ($PACW) plummeted. Bianco and Farley also explore whether this is the Feds last hike in interest rates, and how the consequences of the looming debt ceiling will impact the banking system and markets. Note: this interview started to filmed at 3:30pm ET on May 3rd, almost immediately after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference, but BEFORE the crash in $PACW (over 50%), which occurred shortly after 4:30pm ET. Bianco and Farleys discussion of PacWest occurred before PacWest announced it was pursuing a strategic sale. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 02 May 2023 19:50:00 -0000

A Wild Ride In The Oil Market | Josh Young


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Josh Young Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Bison Interests joins the show for a deep dive into the oil and gas industry. After a record year in 2022 for oil & gas, with energy being the best performing sector, 2023 has sent investors on "a wild ride" with crude oil retracing gains from its high of around $120 to around $75. Josh walks through the relative performances of the oil majors, and the small/mid size cap companies he specializes in. As many oil & gas companies have restructured their balance sheets and paid down overhanging debt, is the stage set for an outperformance of the oil & gas companies that incurred tougher times throughout the previous decade. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! Follow Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Referenced In The Show: The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy: https://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy-ebook/dp/B009TCWKLC Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) A wild Ride In The Oil Market (05:34) Oil Companies Profitability vs A Decade Ago (15:22) Are O&G Companies Investing In R&D, Or Share Buybacks? (18:57) Natural Gas (23:58) Are Rising Production Costs Impacting O&G Companies? (28:50) Permissionless (29:53) Searching For Low Decline Producers In The Oil Market (33:28) Baytex Energy (BTE) (40:45) Josh's Oil Price Outlook (56:19) Blockworks Research (57:19) Investing In O&G Companies In The U.S & Canada vs Rest of World (01:08:03) Overrated O&G Companies In The Small & Mid Cap Industry Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 01 May 2023 22:53:00 -0000

The Failure of First Republic Bank | Chris Whalen & Randy Woodward


Today First Republic, Americas 14th largest bank, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) who sold the vast majority of the stranded assets to banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM). Jack welcomes two veteran bankers, Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, for an in-depth look at why First Republic and how the banking system can move on from todays takeover. ____ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:48) The "False Narrative" About First Republic (04:44) "The Bondholders Will Get Toasted First" (07:06) "We Just Need More Time" (09:54) "The Fed's Got To Cut" (11:52) Credit Availablity Has Already Come Down (15:03) Why Did The Fed Buy Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)? (19:35) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (23:30) Mortgage REITs & Interest Rate Risk (37:36) "The Loss To The FDIC Will Grow (40:55) Permissionless (41:58) Is The Fed Really To Blame For Bank Failures? (Jack Pushes Back) (52:58) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (55:38) Blockworks Research (56:37) Moral Hazard Argument About Deposit Insurance (01:05:51) Tease At Future Interviews On Forward Guidance ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 01 May 2023 19:45:00 -0000

Dr. Perry Mehrling on The Dollar Standard, Globalization of Shadow Banking, and Charles Kindleberger


Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System, Dr. Mehrling shares insights on the extension of the dollar to the global south and globalization of shadow banking. Mehrling and Farley explore whether rumors of the dollars death are greatly exaggerated, and how the end of a zero-interest-rate-fueled credit cycle could be a little rocky. __ Money and Empire: https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/macroeconomics-and-monetary-economics/money-and-empire-charles-p-kindleberger-and-dollar-system?format=HB Money and Empire on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Empire-Kindleberger-Economic-Thinking/dp/1009158570 __ Follow Perry Mehrling on Twitter https://twitter.com/PMehrling Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ The New Lombard Street: https://www.amazon.com/New-Lombard-Street-Became-Dealer/dp/0691143986/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=i42Qi&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=144-5485129-5375822&pd_rd_wg=KL4l1&pd_rd_r=5ee218b8-1e89-4991-8a8d-ac9e7c073e06&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Perry Mehrling, Zoltan Pozsar, Daniel Neilson, and James Sweeney, Bagehot was a Shadow Banker: Shadow Banking, Central Banking, and the Future of Global Finance https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2232016 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:02) What Is The Global Dollar System? (02:32) The Dollar Is International, Not Domestic (06:43) The Inherent Instability Of Thought (08:49) "The Fed Learned Its Lesson From 2008" (11:45) Key Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (20:36) The Fall Of The Sterling Standard After World War 1 (24:02) Sterling Was The Standard, Not Gold (26:25) "The Crime Of 1971" Was Nixon's DePegging The Dollar From Gold, According to Kindleberger (27:44) Why Was There Inflation In The 1970s (Instead of Deflation)? (30:50) Next Few Years Will Be "A Little Rocky" (36:03) The Globalization Of Shadow Banking (39:06) Blockworks Research (40:05) Money Market Funds (MMFs), Comparison Between Now And Great Financial Crisis (43:44) "The Dollar System Seems To Be Holding Together" (46:45) The Four Prices Of Money (56:02) Permissionless (57:04) Kindleberger's Critique Of The Triffin Dilemma (01:06:48) The Myth Of Bretton Woods (01:12:32) What's Missing In Contemporary Understanding Of Kindleberger's School Of Thought __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 27 Apr 2023 22:50:00 -0000

Jared Dillian: Sentiment Is Still Really, Really Bad


Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why hes no longer bearish on natural gas, why he thinks the May Fed meeting could be a catalyst for gold, and why hedge fund managers who are still short officer REITs (real estate investment trusts) will get their faces hes no longer bearish on natural gas. He discusses several essays from his latest book, Those Bastards: 69 Essays On Life, Creativity, & Meaning. Filmed on April 17, 2023. ____ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:01) Shorting Commercial Real Estate Is A Crowded Trade (08:36) Outlook On Stocks (12:24) Healthcare Sector (14:53) Permissionless (15:56) "Gold Is Super Interesting" (19:26) Gold Mining Stocks (22:29) May Fed Meeting Could Be "Next Big Catalyst" For Gold (24:54) Is It Time To Get Bullish On Bonds? (27:25) "The Labor Market Will Weaken A Bit" (28:38) Jared's New Book (30:03) What Is Luck? (36:55) Blockworks Research (37:55) Is Finance Depraved?
Tue, 25 Apr 2023 20:06:00 -0000

Nathan Tankus on The "Pozsar Moment" In Shadow Banking


On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Nathan Tankus Author at Notes on the Crises joins the show for a deep dive into the shadow banking system, recent financial crises and the current state of the banking system post SVB's collapse. Questioning conventional monetary theory, Nathan outlines his thesis authored in a recent paper released in January 2022 "The New Monetary Theory". Nathan also shares his thoughts on the current FDIC limit of $250,000 and how an increase in this limit could help prevent future bank panics. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Subscribe To Notes on the Crises: https://www.crisesnotes.com/ Follow Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NathanTankus Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: THE NIGHT THEY REREAD POZSAR (IN HIS ABSENCE): https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-night-they-reread-pozsar-in-his-absence/ The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Best-Way-Rob-Bank-Own/dp/0292754183 THE NEW MONETARY POLICY: https://files.modernmoney.network/M3F000001.pdf?ref=crisesnotes.com The Federal Government Always Money-Finances Its Spending: A Restatement: https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-federal-government-always-money/ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:20) What Is Shadow Money? (14:51) The Collapse of SVB (22:42) The Bank Term Funding Program (29:29) The March Banking Panic Was NOT A Systemic Crisis (31:23) The Savings & Loans Crisis (37:37) Bank Crisis... But The Fed Hiked Rates? (45:17) The New Monetary Policy (01:04:03) Modern Monetary Theory (01:13:03) Re-Thinking Government Borrowing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 24 Apr 2023 18:20:00 -0000

Jeff Snider: The Credit Crunch Is Here As Ultra Rare Bond Market Signal Flashes Red For First Time Since 2008


Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Jeff Snider https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:30) Money Is Getting Herded Into Highest Tier Of Collateral (07:54) Liquidity Preference Is Extreme (15:21) Treasurys Role In Banks' Asset & Liability Management (18:47) Credit Crunch (22:35) Public Ad (23:39) Are The Bank Runs Over? (30:42) Is The "Mild Recession" Forecast Plausible? (33:57) How Many More Rate Hikes Does The Fed Have In The Chamber? (35:41) The Fed's Efforts To Help The Banking System (BTFP, Discount Window, etc.) (39:40) Were Rate Hikes To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (43:08) Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) On Bank Deposit Levels (44:50) Was There "Money Printing" In 2020? (47:42) Did The Banks Take Too Much Interest Rate Risk in 2020 & 2021? (49:48) Defining "Deflationary Money" (55:12) LIBOR Futures Will Be Phased Out, Right? (56:37) Counterargument: Debt Ceiling Is The Reason Short-Term Treasury Bills Are Trading At Such A Premium (01:02:32) Summary Of Jeff's Views On Credit Crunch & Deflationary Money
Sat, 22 Apr 2023 11:00:00 -0000

An Update On The "March Banking Panic" | Weekly Round Up


This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 21 Apr 2023 15:09:04 -0000

Brent Johnson on Why The De-Dollarization Narrative Is Overhyped


Recent efforts by foreign leaders have led some to claim that the U.S. Dollar system will soon cease to be the global reserve currency. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to Forward Guidance to argue that these arguments are utterly wrong, and he explains why in great detail. He expects a major squeeze to occur sometime over the next two years, although he and Jack discuss the potential for Chinas re-emergence from recession as a catalyst for more potential short-term dollar weakness. Filmed on April 20, 2023. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:32) "You Shouldn't Go All-In Against The United States & The U.S. Dollar" (12:06) Van Eck (12:55) Why Trade Is Invoiced In Dollars (19:01) The Bretton Woods System And The Rise Of "EuroDollars" (Offshore Dollars) (24:18) "Don't Confuse A Possibility With A Probability" (30:52) Sanctions (33:56) The Gold Standard And The Necessary Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (38:44) Bitcoin Standard Would Be "Massively Deflationary" (40:52) Why Are Central Banks Buying Gold? (42:05) When And Why Does The Dollar Spike Higher Against Other Currencies? (47:58) The Debt Ceiling (58:13 China's Belt and Road Initiative (01:00:58) Fears Of A Sovereign Debt Crisis (01:05:06) Currency Hegemons Will Continue To Be The Norm ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 20 Apr 2023 20:56:57 -0000

Do Banks Have Enough Capital? | Dr. Martien Lubberink


The more capital a bank holds, the more losses it can take before going bust. Dr. Martien Lubberink, professor at Victoria University of Wellington, joins Forward Guidance to define regulatory bank capital and put it in context of the conspicuous bank meltdowns in March. Lubberink opines on the issues at Credit Suisse & Silicon Valley Bank through the lens of bank capital, and he shares insights on the health and nature of the banking system of New Zealand, where he currently resides. Filmed on April 6, 2023. -- Follow Martin Lubberink on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/cetier1 Read Martin Lubberinks blog athttps://capitalissues.co/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Pieces discussed in the interview: The Value of Kiwibank Fresh RBNZ Dashboard data shows New Zealands largest banks on track to meet increasing capital ratio requirements Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:39) Lubberink's Background In Bank Capital During The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (08:04) What Is Bank Capital? (13:37) Silicon Valley Bank Was A Masterclass In "How To Not Run A Bank" (18:16) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (25:55) Permissionless (26:59) Important Regulatory Bank Capital Ratios (37:26) Credit Suisse & Additional Tier 1 Bonds (46:14) Operational Risks (48:11) "New Zealand Banks Are Among The Most Resilient Banks In The World (51:32) Interest Rate Hedging Again (Jack Is Obsessed) (55:10) Blockworks Research (56:11) Kiwi Bank (01:01:33) Monetary Policy Of Reserve Bank of New Zealand (NZ's Central Bank) (01:04:08) Real Estate Boom in New Zealand (01:06:59) Relaxation Of U.S. Banking Regulation
Tue, 18 Apr 2023 20:11:00 -0000

Money Supply Is Falling By Most Since Great Depression | Danielle DiMartino Booth


Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her findings on the problems brewing in commercial real estate, the collapse in money supply (M2) growth, and her updated views on the auto and housing markets. -- Today's show is sponsored byPublic.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going tohttps://public.com/forwardguidance -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Boothhttps://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:33) "Deathly Silence" In Private Equity World (16:13) "There Will Be A 'Mark-to-Market' Moment" (19:31) Issues In Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (21:47) Public ad (22:50) Auto Loans Are In Distress (30:36) The Residential Housing Market (36:39) ill Inflation Fall? (38:08) Fed Expects A Recession (41:12) Money Growth Is Lowest Since Great Depression (44:30) The Debt Ceiling (51:09) The Bernanke Doctrine In Jeopardy? (QE whil rates are above zero) (01:03:40) Quantitative Easing Is NOT Back, Says Danielle (01:09:28) Closing Thoughts On Credit Crunch -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 17 Apr 2023 22:40:00 -0000

PIMCOs Cash King On Liquidity, Repo, Debt Ceiling, And Yield Curve Inversion | Jerome Schneider


Jerome Schneider, managing director at PIMCO, is a maestro of short-term funding markets. He oversees PIMCOs >$300 Billion pool of short-term liquidity for investors (the asset side) and also devises strategies to efficiently and robustly fund PIMCOs longer-term investments (the liability side). Schneider gives in-depth insight on how key indicators in the short-term funding world have changed during and after the March 2023 banking crisis, such as liquidity, repo, and the shape of yield curve. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, April 17th, 2023. To learn more about PIMCO, go to http://pimco.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (07:47) Why Are 1-Month Treasury Bills Trading So Expensive ("Rich") To Other Interest Rates? (11:42) The Debt Ceiling (19:02) Permissionless (20:05) The Fed Has Done A Tremendous Job In Cutting Off Tail Risks For Funding (30:43) Thoughts On An Inverted Yield Curve (36:27) The Fed Pivot (41:59) Credit Risk In Short-Term Assets (44:16) Liquidity As Offense Rather Than Liquidity As Defense (48:44) Blockworks Research (49:44) Funding PIMCO's Leveraged Strategies (56:03) Closing Thoughts On Opportunities in Short-Term Markets (59:55) Will Banks Have To Pay More For Deposits?
Mon, 17 Apr 2023 14:05:00 -0000

Key Principles For Successful Trading | Simon Ree


On todays episode of Forward Guidance Simon Ree Author & Founder of The Tao Of Trading joins the show for a discussion on the key principles for becoming a successful trader. Simon takes us back to March 2020, a period which kicked off an aggressive bull market leading all the way up to 2022. In 2022, many market participants got caught offside as the aggressive rally suddenly turned into an equally as aggressive bear market. Now in 2023, the bulls and bears standoff at a cross roads waiting for the next indicator of where markets are heading. Simon walks through the difficult past 3 years in markets, and explains the key principles to remember when investing in this current market paradigm. -- Follow Simon: https://twitter.com/simon_ree Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Simon's Entry To Finance: Black Monday (03:37) What Makes A Successful Trader? (05:10) Consistency Is A Superpower (07:29) I am Not A Trader, I am A Risk Manager (09:50) The Process of Making A Trade (12:54) Trading A Bull Market (17:41) Trading A Bear Market (19:14) Permissionless ad (20:17) Trading The Inflationary Bear Market of 2022 (29:05) Market Positioning, Sentiment & Short Squeezes (34:13) Blockworks Research (35:13) The Principles of Technical Analysis (37:19) Trading The Bull Market of 2020 (40:01) Assessing Current Market Conditions 946:02) The TAO of Trading (52:53) The Biggest Opportunities In Markets (56:26) How To Compound Your Returns (01:02:54) Finding The Right Trading Strategy For You -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 14 Apr 2023 17:35:00 -0000

Chris Whalen on Big Bank Earnings and the Return of Credit Risk


Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to comment on the ample and growing earnings of the big banks (particularly JPMorgan Chase, whose stock surged over 7% on rosy net income and increasing deposits). Whalen argues that banks unrealized losses on their securities due to interest rate risk have gone down dramatically as interest rates have fallen since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10. However, he expects banks cost of funds (what they have to pay for deposits) to continue to rise and he makes the case that the primary headwind for banks is not interest rate risk, but credit risk. Whalen argues that while there could be more bank failures ahead, he expects it will be the outlier banks that fail, not the mainstream banks. This interview was filmed the morning of Friday, April 14th, shortly after large American banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported their earnings for the first quarter of 2023. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:55) "Banks Have Lots Of Commercial Real Estate Exposure" (06:24) Banks' Unrealized Losses Have Gotten Smaller Over The Past Month (08:25) The Return Of Credit Risk (16:06) Is The Banking Crisis Moderating? If So, Why? (19:18) Van Eck Ad (20:06) There's A Slowdown in Lending (22:08) Quantitative Easing's Distortion Of Bank Balance Sheets (24:32) Chris Suggests The Fed Sell Securities Into The Market (28:27) "The Bid For Risk Free Dollar Assets Is Still Off The Scale" (30:12) Recent Rally In Bonds Has Helped Bank Book Value (36:23) "People Love To Say The Word 'Hedge' And Then Change The Subject"
Wed, 12 Apr 2023 23:15:00 -0000

The Commercial Real Estate Default Cycle Has Only Just Begun | Dan McNamara


Dan McNamara, veteran commercial MBS trader and founder of Polpo Capital, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the commercial real estate (CRE) default cycle has only just begun. McNamara notes that the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank is causing regional banks to curb lending to commercial real estate projects, and that as a result many property developers will strategically default and walk away from the buildings. McNamara shares why he has been shorting the riskier tranches of CRE loans via the CMBX, and he tells Jack Farley why the cascade of defaults he expects will cause tremendous damage to the securitized market for CRE loans. Key terms for this interview: CRE = Commercial Real Estate CMBS = Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities CMBX = a synthetic tradable index referencing a basket of CMBS CLO = Collateralized Loan Obligation LTV = Loan-to-value ratio Filmed on April 11, 2023. Follow Dan McNamara on Twitter https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:01) Office Properties Could Decline by 50% Or More (15:25) Defaults WIll Lead To Forced Selling (20:03) Why Rising Interest Rates Has Imperiled Many Commercial Real Estate Deals (23:25) Regional Banks Are Curbing Lending After Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (30:01) Differences Between This and The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) And "The Big Short" (35:03) Shorting Tranches of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (42:09) Views on Highly-Rated Tranches (AAA- and AA-) (45:03) Interest Rate Risk (Duration) Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (47:45) "We Are Pretty Market Neutral (50:17) "We Think The Credit Curve Is Still Too Flat" (54:44) The "Refinancing Game" Is Over (01:11:54) If McNamara Is Right About Commercial Real Estate, How Systemic Will This Be?
Mon, 10 Apr 2023 13:41:00 -0000

Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang: A Monetary Plumbing Masterclass


On today's episode of Forward Guidance Lou Crandall, Chief Economist of Wrightson ICAP & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show to discuss the fallout of the recent bank panic. With two monetary plumbing experts on the show, we take the opportunity to cover a wide range of topics including the real reason bank deposits were leaving banks, the impact of the record $2 trillion parked in the reverse repo, how the Fed can use interest rates to control financial stability and the looming debt ceiling. In the opaque world of financial plumbing, there are no two better guests to welcome to the show, but to hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 10/4/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Lou: https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Silicon Valley Bank, Reminiscent of The Savings & Loan Crisis? (06:08) Why Are Deposits Leaving Banks? (11:30) The Plumbing of Treasury Debt (21:34) The Reverse Repo Is A Danger To The Banking System (34:12) Public.com Ad (35:18) How The Fed Can Control Financial Stability Using Interest Rates (50:39) The Debt Ceiling (01:05:56) The Reserve Gap (01:07:43) The 2019 Repo Crisis: Everyone Has A Plan, Until They Get Punched In The Nose (01:13:57) Will Banking Turmoil Lead To A Credit Crunch? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 06 Apr 2023 15:55:00 -0000

A Recession Is Somewhat Unavoidable, Says Liz Ann Sonders


Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, joins Jack Farley to share her data-driven investment outlook at a challenging time for global markets. Sonders argues that before the turmoil in the regional banking sector, the U.S. was already in a rolling recession where weakness rolled throughout different parts of the economy. Now, after the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March, Sonders thinks an official recession (i.e. one declared as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER), is more likely, and she says that she thinks a recession is somewhat unavoidable. Given these headwinds, Sonders investment outlook is that it could be a bumpy ride in the short-term. However, Sonders and Farley discuss the importance of a long-term outlook and how market timing very frequently underperforms buy-and-hold strategies. Filmed on April 4th, 2023. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Follow Charles Schwab on Twitter https://twitter.com/CharlesSchwab Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Some of Liz Ann Sonders recent research at Charles Schwab: Under Pressure: Fed Hikes in Face of Bank Turmoil: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting 2023 Quarterly Market Outlook: Fed on the Brink? https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/quarterly-market-outlook Another One Bites the Dust: Banking Saga Continues: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/another-one-bites-dust-banking-saga-continues Caveat Emptor: Important Market Shifts Underway: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/caveat-emptor-important-market-shifts-underway The Price You Pay: A Look at Equity Valuations: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/price-you-pay-look-equity-valuations __ Timestamps: (00:35) The Fed Has Broken Something (03:09) Rate Cuts Might Be Further Away Than The Market Thinks (05:58) Already In A "Rolling Recession" (17:37) Have The Odds Of A Severe Recession (Rather Than Mild) Increased After The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (19:59) Investment Outlook For Stocks (23:11) VanEck Ad (23:59) Equity Valuations: Are Stocks Cheap or Expensive? (33:37) Short-Term Outlook: "Some More Bumps In The Road" (36:12) Time In The Market vs Timing The Market (39:27) Liquidity and Gold (41:28) Sectors And Factors Leading The Stock Market (44:14) "Growth vs. Value" Is A False Choice (49:59) International Developed Markets and Emerging Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 05 Apr 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Next Chapter In Interest Rate History | Dr. Richard Sylla


On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Leonard N. Stern School of Business, author and financial historian Dr. Richard Sylla joins the show for a discussion on one of his most widely studied areas... interest rates. After authoring "A History of Interest Rates", a book which examined over four millennia of interest rates trhoughout periods of inflation, financial crises' and recessions, there's no one better equipped to discuss the Fed's current tightening cycle and how it impacted banks such as SVB in the Fed's current quest to fight inflation. Just how severe is this current tightening cycle when compared to other times in history? According to Dr. Sylla, this is nothing new as "history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: A History of Interest Rates: https://www.amazon.co.uk/History-Interest-Rates-Wiley-Finance/dp/0471732834 Alexander Hamilton on Finance, Credit, and Debt: https://www.amazon.com/Alexander-Hamilton-Finance-Credit-Debt/dp/0231184565 Alexander Hamilton, Central Banker: Crisis Management During the U.S Financial Panic of 1792:https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/research/alexander_hamilton_central_banker.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) A Return To Normalcy For Interest Rates (05:10) How Interest Rate Rises Led To SVB's Collapse (09:24) The First Bank of The United States (13:36) Paul Volcker's Historic Interest Rate Rises (20:35) Why We Have Inflation Now... But Not Post 2008 (28:03) Permissionless (29:06) The Fed's Between A Rock & A Hard Place (32:03) The Savings & Loan Crisis (37:41) All Signs Point Towards A Recession (44:59) Blockworks Research (45:59) What An Inverted Yield Curve Really Indicates (48:49) A Banking Panic Solution, Through The Eyes of Alexander Hamilton (57:03) How ZIRP Caused Problems In The Financial System -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 04 Apr 2023 15:17:00 -0000

The Bank Panic Is Already Over (Heres Why) | John Maxfield


John Maxfield, banking specialist and author of the Maxfield on Banks Substack, joins Jack to discuss the history and future of the U.S. banking system. Drawing on his wide-ranging historical knowledge, Maxfield notes that when it comes to banks, failure is the norm, not the exception. Maxfield argues that the acute phase of the banking panic in the U.S. is likely over, as loan yields will rise and deposit flight will slow down. Maxfield makes the case that, paradoxically, a serious cause of bank failure is not just not enough liquidity: often banks fail because there was too much liquidity. Maxfield and Farley take an in-depth look at Silicon Valley Banks enormous influx in deposits, which more than tripled since the first quarter of 2020, which they used to buy an enormous amount of securities that lost value as the Fed raised rates. Filmed on April 3, 2023. ____ Follow John Maxfield on Twitter https://twitter.com/MaxfieldOnBanks Maxfield on Banks Substack: https://maxfieldonbanks.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:14) "Failure Is The Rule, Not The Exception" When It Comes To Banking (06:51) Diagnosing Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) Collapse (16:45) Excess Liquidity Is The Problem, Not The Solution (22:58) "Interest Rate Risk Can Be As Deadly As Credit Risk" (27:04) Permissionless (28:08) Some Banks' Unrealized Losses Exceed Book Value (36:22)Is The Bank Panic Over? (John Says Yes) (39:51) "Banks Will Always Make Money" (44:33) Will Banks Decrease Their Lending? (52:17) Blockworks Research (53:15) How Did Banks' Manage Their Interest Rate Risk? (58:02) Assumptions About Deposit Duration Play A Key Role In Asset Liability (Mis)Matching (01:05:03) About The Maxfield On Banks Substack (01:07:40) Parallel To The Savings & Loan Crisis (01:10:55) Big Banks Get Bailed Out, Small Banks Don't (Unfair?) (01:11:47) Executive Compensation And Bank Performance (An Inverse Relationship) (01:13:27) Bank Insolvency Is Not Necessarily A Death Sentence (01:21:01) What Banks Need To Learn From SVB's Collapse ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 03 Apr 2023 11:20:00 -0000

Peter Stella & Joseph Wang on Debt Death Spirals, Monetarism, and The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level


Peter Stella, Former Head of the IMF Central Banking Division, joins Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and author at Fedguy.com, and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on: -what really causes inflation -monetarism, fiscal theory of the price level, and modern monetary theory (MMT) -the unrealized losses on the Feds balance sheet -why yield curve control likely wont be necessary (or so Peter argues) -the longer the duration of a governments debt, the less inflation is required to inflate it away -when a central bank incurs unrealized losses, who wins and who loses? Filmed on March 29, 2023. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wangs writings: https://fedguy.com/ Josephs latest piece, Ameridollars: https://fedguy.com/ameridollars/ Peter Stella on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Stellar_Consult Peter Stellas work: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/ Do Central Banks Need Capital? by Peter Stella: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Do-Central-Banks-Need-Capital-2260 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:15) Peter Stella's Background At The International Monetary Fund (IMF) (03:55) Joseph Wang On The Flaws Of Monetarism (05:52) Milton Friedman: It's The Government That Prints Money (07:56) The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level (13:38) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (24:12) Real Value Of U.S. Debt Is Lower Now Than March 2020 (37:33) Permissionless (38:38) The Fed Has Huge Unrealized Losses On Its Balance Sheet (45:29) Details About The Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Purchases In 2020 (51:51) Did The Fed Help Wealthy Homeowners Refinance Their Mortgages In 2020? (54:21) Blockworks Research Plug (55:22) When The Federal Reserve Has Unrealied Losses On Its Balance Sheets, Who Loses and Who Gains? (01:13:50) Joseph Wang's Summary Of This Conversation (01:15:08) Yield Curve Control and Potential Debt Death Spiral ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 30 Mar 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Commercial Real Estate Is In Serious Trouble | Nick Halaris


Nick Halaris, President of real estate investment firm Metros Capital, joins Jack to share insight on the challenges commercial real estate faces after a surge in interest rates and the fall of two U.S. banks. The phrase commercial real estate is a catch-all terms that refers to offices, apartment buildings (multi-family), retail, and industrial spaces. Unlike residential real estate, which is typically financed with long-term fixed-rate mortgages, a lot of commercial real estate was financed with floating rate debt, which means that as interest rates rose last year, the interest expense of some commercial real estate developers rose dramatically. Halaris argues that the turmoil in the banking system will likely induce banks to tighten their lending, which would inflict further hardship onto commercial real estate, much of which is financed via smaller regional banks. Filmed on Tuesday, March 28, 2023. ____ Nick Halaris website: https://nickhalaris.com/ Profit+ Subscribe Link: https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/ Nick Halaris on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NickHalaris Nick Halaris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-halaris-4a25b93/ ____ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:25) What Is Commercial Real Estate? (03:20) Interest Rates Have A Huge Impact on Real Estate Valuations (11:48)"Commercial Real Estate Is In Serious Trouble" (16:58) Delinquency Rates Are Rising... (19:13) Real Estate Is No Longer An Inflation Hedge (22:45) Permissionless Ad (23:48) Real Estate "Cap Rates" And Why They Are So Often Misunderstood (26:53) "Accounting Games" In Real Estate (35:02) How Bank Turmoil Will Impact Real Estate (38:42) The End Game For Real Estate (44:30) "it's Really Hard To Get A Loan" (46:37) Prices Will Go Down More (48:36) Blockworks Research Ad (49:36) Silver Lining: Rates Could Go Down (53:33) Retail Real Estate (Shopping Malls, etc.) (54:39) The Housing Market Will Probably Remain Strong (59:29) Private Equity's Investment Into Housing (01:01:51) Nick Halaris' Newsletter, Profit Plus (01:04:25) Closing Thoughts On Rising Interest Rates ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 27 Mar 2023 05:05:00 -0000

Former Central Banker on China, Global Discord, and Financial Stability | Sir Paul Tucker


Sir Paul Tucker, research fellow at The Harvard Kennedy School and former deputy governor of The Bank of England, joins Forward Guidance to discuss ideas from his latest book, Global Discord: Values And Power In A Fractured World Order. Tucker tells Jack Farley that Chinas growing economic might and rejection of liberal values poses a challenge to the U.S. role as global hegemon, and he details ways to reinvigorate international cooperation during the current period of geopolitical strife. Tucker shares his views on the recent turmoil in the banking system, weighing on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the acute need for bank resolution that can maintain financial stability while winding down ailing banks. Tucker and Farley also discuss concepts such as the Triffin Dilemma, the offshore (Eurodollar) dollar system, and central banks role as lenders of last resort. __ Global Discord from Princeton Press: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691229317/global-discord Global Discord on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Global-Discord-Values-Power-Fractured/dp/0691229317 __ About Paul Tucker: http://paultucker.me/resources/ About Tuckers work at The Harvard Kennedy School: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/fellows/research-fellows#sir_paul_tucker More about todays guest: For over thirty years, Sir Paul Tucker was a central banker, and a member of the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee from 2002. He was Deputy Governor from 2009 to late 2013, including serving on the Financial Policy Committee (vice chair) and Prudential Regulatory Authority Board (vice chair). He was knighted by Britain in 2014 for his services to central banking. Internationally, he was a member of the steering committee of the G20 Financial Stability Board, and chaired its Committee on the Resolution of Cross-Border Banks to solve too big to fail. Tucker was a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements, and was chair of the Basel Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems from April 2012. After leaving central banking, Tucker was chair of the Systemic Risk Council from December 2015 to August 2021. He now writes at the intersection of political economy and political philosophy as research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. In addition to Global Discord, Tucker is also the author of Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State (2018). __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:55) The Rise Of China Will Have Immense Consequences On A Global Scale (04:44) Shortcomings of Trade Policy and Enforcement (10:41) Downsides of U.S.' Trade Deficit (20:18) The Bretton Woods Regime (21:59) The Triffin Dilemma (26:32) The Eurodollar System (27:31) The Fed's Swap Lines In 2008 (28:49) Importance of Multi-Disciplinary Understanding For Policymakers (31:17) The Debt Ceiling (21:27) Thucydides' Trap (25:57) The Contest Between China and The U.S. Is "Everywhere" (39:26) Document 9 of The Chinese Communist Party (45:29) Inflation (49:37) Regional Bank Failure In The U.S. (55:43) The Takeover Of Credit Suisse By UBS (01:02:49) Defining A "Bailout" As A Use Of Taxpayer Money (01:07:09) Bagehot's Dictum (01:15:31) Credit Suisse Contingent Convertible ("CoCo") Bonds (01:17:55) Tying Geopolitical And Banking Together __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 23 Mar 2023 21:40:00 -0000

The Next Phase Of The Banking Crisis | Joseph Wang & Randy Woodward


Today Jack interviews Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James Financial, and Joseph Wang, author at https://fedguy.com/, for a conversation on how the recent banking turmoil has muddled the Federal Reserves inflation-fighting mission. Woodward, a banking veteran with a rare understanding of the regional banks investment portfolio, gives a glimpse into the interest-rate exposure (duration) of the mid-sized and community bank community that is unavailable by just looking at public filings. Woodward argues that Silicon Valley Banks (SVB) fall was not due to its interest rate risk management and that the Federal Reserve is to blame. Wang vehemently (but very politely) disagrees and what ensues is a masterclass on the most salient issues facing the U.S. banking industry. Filmed on Thursday, March 23, 2023, a day after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) Joseph's Take On March Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC) (04:59) Is The Fed To Blame For The Fall Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (12:35) Available-For-Sale (AFS) vs. Held-To-Maturity (HTM) Accounting Treatment (26:16) Public.com Ad (27:20) Was Silicon Valley Bank's Lack of Interest Rate Hedges Negligent? (34:30) There's No Way To Hedge Perfectly" (41:10) Uninsured Deposit Base As A New Vulnerability For U.S. Banks (53:01) The Psychological Aspect of Bank Runs (57:07) Bernanke on The Great Depression: Bad Visuals Are Self-Fulfilling Prophecies (01:00:06) Should The FDIC Deposit Guarantee Be Raised? (01:02:39) Will Bank Turmoil Cause Banks To Curb Lending? (01:06:41) How Many More Times Will The Fed Hike (If At All)? (01:08:39) BTFP is NOT Quantitative Easing, Says Joseph Wang (01:10:13) Central Banking 101 (01:14:22) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 22 Mar 2023 21:16:00 -0000

Michael Howell: Can The Fed Keep Raising Rates During A Banking Crisis? | Michael Howell


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in! ____ Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 21 Mar 2023 21:38:00 -0000

Something Systemic Has Happened | Daniel Neilson


Does the ongoing turmoil in the banking world constitute a Minksy moment? Daniel Neilson, assistant professor of monetary economic at Bard College at Simons Rock and author of Minsky (2019), argues yes. Neilson explores the potential of contagion within the banking world, and he makes the case that the Federal Reserves Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) as well as the FDIC backstop might make this banking crisis short-lived. Neilson shares with Jack Farley several in-depth charts on the Feds balance sheet that might indicate a turning point and the pair share their views on the Federal Reserves meeting on March 22, 2023. Filmed the afternoon of March 21, 2023. -- Daniel Neilsons article on Silicon Valley Bank: https://www.soonparted.co/p/silicon-valley-bank Daniel Neilsons article on Feds BTFP and other refinancing channels: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-ii Daniel Neilsons chart pack on the SVB Panic: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-iii Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (05:08) "This Is A Minksy Moment" (18:04) The Takeover of Credit Suisse (28:30) Permissionless (29:33) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) vs. The Fed's Discount Window (39:32) Can The Banking Panic Be Stopped In Its Tracks? (43:33) Blockworks Research (44:37)First Republic Bank ($FRC) and Bank Profitability (49:32) The Fed Readies Its Dollar Swap Lines (55:43) The Federal Reserve's New Hiking Path -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 20 Mar 2023 21:55:00 -0000

Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game


Marc Cohodes, accomplished short-seller and financial bloodhound, is on the ultimate hot-streak. Over the past six months, he has been the sternest critic of FTX, Silvergate, and Signature Bank, all of which either have ceased operations as a corporate entity or will do so shortly. He shares what led him to call out FTX in the summer of 2022 (months before its bankruptcy in the fall) and why he shorted the stocks of Silvergate ($SI) and Signature Bank ($SBNY), which have both collapsed in value (a share of Silvergate trades at less than two dollars and shares of Signature Bank no longer trade after it was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on March 12). Cohodes also explains the immense difficulties that short-sellers frequently face, and he shares his opinion on turmoil swirling around the U.S. regional banking system. Over the course of this interview, Cohodes makes several allegations which are solely his own opinion. Filmed the afternoon of March 20, 2023. ____ Follow Marc Cohodes on Twitter https://twitter.com/AlderLaneEggs Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (14:59) Silvergate and Signature Bank as "Publicly-Traded Crime Scenes" (23:47) Silicon Valley Bank (31:30) Is This Similar to 2008? (Answer: Not Really) (58:43) What Marc Is Working On Now (01:04:18) Blockworks Research (01:05:18) The Dangerous Life Of A Professional Short-Seller ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 19 Mar 2023 19:05:00 -0000

The Banks Didnt Hedge Enough | Mustafa Chowdhury


For 40% off an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime (220 / year instead of 374 / year), go to https://macrohive.com/jack or use discount code JACK at checkout. Macro Hive sample report on Silicon Valley Bank (co-written by Mustafa Chowdhury): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/silicon-valley-bank-how-the-government-plans-to-contain-the-fallout/ ___ Just how bad was the risk management at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) when it came to the threat of rising rates? And now that rates have exploded higher over the past year, is this interest rate risk limited to only a few banks, or are these risks spread throughout the entire U.S. banking system? Jackstoday is uniquely qualified to answer these questions. Mustafa Chowdhury, chief rates strategist at Macro Hive, practically invented the field of interest rate risk management, and two decades ago he was successfully managing interest rate risk on Freddie Macs giant portfolio of mortgages worth hundreds of billions of dollars (several times that of Silicon Valley Bank). Chowdhury argues that, contrary to claims otherwise, the U.S. banking system was not sufficiently hedged for 2022's interest rate shock. Filmed on March 16, 2023. ___ Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:33) Mustafa Chowdhury's Background (4:39) "That's The Mortgage Game" (11:27) Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: Interest Rate Risk Lurking At The Scene Of The Crime (21:14) How To Properly Hedge Interest Rate Risk Properly (27:37) Chowdhury Pioneered Use Of Swaptions In 1990s (29:36) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB): Who To Blame? (33:20) Accounting Treatment (Available For Sale Vs. Held-To-Maturity) (41:47) The Fed's Convexity Quantitative Easing (QE) Continues (50:35) Bank Profitability With Higher Deposit Costs (01:03:50) Interest Rate Risk Is Spread Throughout The U.S. Banking System (01:11:52) "There Will Be Fewer Bank Runs" Because Of FDIC Relief (01:19:29) Will Fed Cut In 2023? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 17 Mar 2023 13:25:00 -0000

This is NOT 2008 | Harris Kupperman


Harris Kuppy Kupperman, chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he doesnt think the ongoing turmoil in the regional banking system will have much effect outside on the economy or markets. He explains why he thinks the banking businesses do not make great investments. When Jack Farley asks what he does like, Kuppys answer is simple: oil. He explains why he remains exceptionally bullish on black gold and also shares a stock which he has invested in: Journey Energy. Lastly, Kuppy shares his dos and donts of investing. Filmed the afternoon of March 16, 2023. Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://kedm.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:58) The Run on Silicon Valley Bank (03:49) Will Measures By Fed Treasury & FDIC Be Enough To Prevent Future Panics? (05:55) Kuppy on Bank Stocks (10:26) Are Rising Rates Good Or Bad For Banks? (15:05) Blockworks Research (16:04) Kuppy Is Very Bullish On Oil (25:34) Natural Gas (29:10) Journey Energy (31:41) How To Value Oil Companies (36:14) Hedging At Oil Companies (37:33) Permissionless (38:36) Kuppy's Shorter-Term Market Views (44:19) Kuppy's "Dont's" of Investing (49:55) KEDM ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Mar 2023 10:06:00 -0000

Governor Kuroda: The Decades Most Consequential Central Banker


This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes! Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 15 Mar 2023 20:50:00 -0000

Lyn Alden: Bank Runs And The Financial Repression End Game | Lyn Alden


For some time now it has been the belief of many Fed-watchers that the Federal Reserve would continue to hike interest rates until itbreaks something. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to argue that the stunning collapse of two large U.S. banks represents such breakage. Alden tells Jack Farley that this damage will soon give way to a period of low real interest rates, where inflation runs above Treasury yields. Filmed the afternoon of March 15, 2023. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Aldens writings can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:43) The Cause Of The Turmoil In Banking System (07:08) Are Rising Interest Rates Actually Good For Banks? (08:50) Alden's Outlook on Banks As A Business (12:47) Has Something "Broken"? (15:38) Interest Rate Risk In The U.S. Banking System (22:43) Public Ad (23:48) Will Banks Become More Cautious About Making Loans? (31:11) Is The Fed's Campaign To Raise Interest Rates Over? (38:37) Debt, Demographics, and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) (53:28) Recession Risk (58:48) Stock Market During Financial Repression (01:01:29) Fractional Reserve Banking and "The Narrow Bank" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 14 Mar 2023 22:40:00 -0000

Michael Kao: Bank Bailout Allows The Fed To Tighten Even More


Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the turmoil in the banking sector, the consequences of the policy response from Washington, and the fate of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency. Kao argues that the Feds recent assistance to U.S. banks allows the Fed to hike more in order to fight inflation. Kao also shares his view on todays consumer price index (CPI) reading, China, and the global oil market. Recorded at 1pm ET on March 14, 2023. ____ Follow Michael Kao on Twitter: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Kaoboy Musings on Substack: https://urbankaoboy.substack.com/about Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:36) The Banking Panic Could Be Over, Says Michael Kao (09:14) It's The Shadow Banking Sector That's In Trouble (14:11) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy? (17:46) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy? (20:59) Blockworks Research (21:57) Do We Have Structural Inflation? (25:03) Black Swan: Oil To $300 (37:33) China's Oil Demand Is Lower Than Expected (41:13) The U.S. Dollar Wrecking Ball (46:24) Permissionless Ad (47:26) China's Hidden Debt (55:36) How Stable Is The U.S. Dollar As The Global Reserve Currency? (01:08:36) Closing Thoughts On Bank Panic & Federal Reserve ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 23:30:00 -0000

The Bank Bailout Will Create Moral Hazard | Joseph Wang & Stephen Miran


On Sunday, March 12, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced emergency measures to support U.S. regional banks experiencing bank runs. Were these actions a bailout and have they already created unintended consequences? To Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the New York Federal Reserve, the answer to both of these questions is an unambiguous yes. Joseph joins Stephen Miran, co-founder & portfolio manager at Amberwave Partners, alongside Jack Farley for an in-depth conversation on the banking intervention and its effect on moral hazard and monetary plumbing. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 4pm ET. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://twitter.com/SteveMiran Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wangs latest piece, Hidden To Market,on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/hidden-to-market/ The joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the FDIC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm Federal Reserves Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm __ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:47 The Bank "Bailout" 09:10 The Shocking Incompetence of Silicon Valley Bank 20:02 Will There Be More Bank Failures? 22:40 Public Ad 23:44 Moral Hazard in U.S. Banking Bailouts 27:55 Why Hasn't Silicon Valley Bank Been Bought? 31:35 Emergency Relief From Fed, Treasury, and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) 41:41 Consequences of Fed's BTFP Program on Big For Duration 52:25 Does Huge Fall In Interest Rates Mean Fed's Hiking Is Over? 01:01:13 February Inflation Data __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 21:48:00 -0000

The Bank Crisis Is "Overblown" | Joseph Wang


Signature and Silicon Valley Bank have collapsed. In this breaking news episode, hosts Jason Yanowitz and Jack Farley interview Joseph Wang to discuss the banking system failures and what to expect next. Joseph dives deep into the risk both banks took by not hedging interest rate risk, how this could have been avoided and whether other banks are in a similar position? Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 10:30am ET. NOTE: This was originally filmed as an episode of "Empire," the crypto podcast hosted by Santiago Santos and Jason Yanowitz, the co-founder of Blockworks. Listen to this episode on the Empire feed: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/signature-banks-demise-whos-next-joseph-wang/id1554930038?i=1000603971972 We then discuss if the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program was the right move? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune! - - Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7 Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 20:10:00 -0000

Danielle DiMartino Booth: A Banking Panic Makes The Feds Job More Difficult


To get a 20% discount off an annual subscription to Danielle DiMartino Booth https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/guidance and use code GUIDANCE Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to share her thoughts on how the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector will affect the economy and the Federal Reserves fight with inflation. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 1pm ET. -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:30:00 -0000

Crazy Things Are Happening In The Japanese Bond Market | Weston Nakamura


Check out Weston Nakamuras new show, Market Depth (First episode airs on Wednesday March 15): Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3YMXoHm Apple: https://apple.co/3ytqwZ8 -- Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unchanged, and maintaining a highly dovish stance as he exits. Governor Kuroda held his final press conference in which his only regret was that he was unable to achieve a sustained 2% inflation rate in Japan- despite a backdrop of Japans core CPI currently double that of the 2% objective, and many market participants and pundits calling for a final signature BOJ-shock for this meeting. Jack Farley welcomes back Weston Nakamura again for a third consecutive BOJ policy meeting review to discuss the deteriorating state of market dysfunction and the warped yield curve amidst the Bank of Japans unprecedented scale of continued easing. They also review Governor Kurodas history-shaping unprecedented tenure, as well as the incoming new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, and the behind-the-scenes scramble to find who Weston feels is a disaster of a pick for the post-Kurodanomics era, using references from the hit-series Breaking Bad for character context. Today also marks the beginning of another era, in which Tokyo-based derivatives trader and financial markets content creator Weston Nakamura officially joins Blockworks Macro to host a brand new podcast called Market Depth - in which Weston provides critical cross-asset market commentary and insights from Asia- where market activity and policy developments are having ever greater impact upon the global economy and market landscape. Market Depth debuts on Wednesday March 15th 2023, so be sure to follow the podcast on your favorite app, and subscribe to Blockworks Macro YouTube so that you dont miss an episode! -- Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:05) Kuroda (Departing BOJ Governor) As Gus Fring (13:19) Kazuo Ueda (Incoming BOJ Governor) (18:09) Frankenstein Policy (23:26) Japanese Inflation (27:45) Bank Stocks Fall In Japan (29:54) The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (36:37) Liquidity (43:04) Consequences For Japanese Yen -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 10 Mar 2023 20:31:00 -0000

Chris Whalen: The Fed Is To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank


Today, Silicon Valley Bank, an institution with over $200 Billion worth of assets, failed. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why. Whalen attributes the collapse in book value of SVB Financial (the entity that owns Silicon Valley Bank) to the Feds rapid hikes in interest rates, which severely depressed the market value of the banks holdings. Whalen argues that, unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates and opens the discount window, the U.S. is at risk of a banking crisis. -- Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Mar 2023 14:05:00 -0000

Does Powell Mean Business? | David Hay


Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil. Hay describes how Volckers drastic actions turned him into a bond bull (Volcker meant business) for his entire career, but he shares why now he is not optimistic about bonds despite falling inflation and Fed Chair Powells spirited rate hikes. Farley asks Hay if Powell means business, and Hay shares his insights on corporate bonds, nuclear energy, and common investor mistakes. Hay also argues that unprofitable growth stocks could have another leg down as bond yields continue to rise. Follow David Hay on Twitter https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Haymaker Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/ __ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:38 Is The Bond Bull Market Over? 09:32 A Fiscal Funding Crisis? 11:09 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) 14:32 Are Rate Hikes Effective At Fighting Inflation? 17:44 Hay's Bearish View On Bonds 21:07Oil, Gas, Uranium, and Copper 30:04 Permissionless 31:05 Investing in Corporate Bonds 34:17 Individual Stock Ideas 37:26 New Lows In Stock Market? 40:33 Outlook on Energy Stocks: "Easy Money Has Already Been Made" 49:15 About Evergreen Gavekal and The Haymaker Substack 51:44 Learning From The Volcker Era: What Was 1980 & 1981 Like? 55:33 Does Powell Mean Business? 58:10 Blockworks Research Plug 59:07 Dos & Don'ts of Investing 01:06:09 The Most Crowded Trade Right Now 01:09:05 Another Down Leg In High-Valuation Stocks?
Mon, 06 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000

The Case For Bonds | Alfonso Peccatiello


Alfonso (Alf) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, higher for longer, the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on March 2, 2023. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass on Substack: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023 (08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer" (15:06) The Housing Market (28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf (33:16) Permissionless plug (34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession? (38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks (45:04)Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question) (48:35) Inflation (52:29) Research Plug (53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?" (56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing? (59:56) The Macro Compass -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 04 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Breaking Down Warren Buffett's 2023 Shareholder Letter | Yun Li


Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM -- This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 03 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Navigating A "Structural Shift" In Markets | Joseph Wang & Martin Pelletier


Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealthjoins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point. With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the perfect catalyst for a sustained bull market, or not? We also discuss Joseph & Martin's thought on the labor market, the outlook for global central banks and the path ahead for 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Martin: https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Managing Money During 2022 (04:43) Markets Are Signalling A New "Turning Point" (10:19) 2008 Signalled A "Structural Shift" In Canadian Asset Management (15:41) The Bank of Canada... Follows The Fed (17:55) Energy Is The Most Hated Trade Out There (24:11) Natural Gas & Energy Producers (30:24) Permissionless Plug (31:26) Housing & Interest Rates In Canada (37:50) Are We Heading For A Recession? (40:06) 2020 Marked A "Structural Shift" (44:30) The Labor Market Remains Strong (52:46) The Anguish of Central Banking (57:42) The Role of Structured Notes In A Portfolio (01:07:30) The Path Ahead For 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Mike Green: Recession Approaches As Housing & Car Markets Weaken


Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last years spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estate and auto lending that is only beginning to draw attention. Green concludes that the U.S. economy is headed towards a recession, and he then proceeds to explain zero day-to-expiry (0DTE) options and weigh hedging strategies in the volatility space. Filmed on February 28th, 2023. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance -- Mike Greens Substack: https://michaelwgreen.substack.com/ Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Simplify on Twitter https://twitter.com/SimplifyAsstMgt Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Is The Labor Market Truly Strong? (05:46) Where We Are In The Economic Cycle (08:40) Commercial Real Estate & Auto Market (10:59) Interest Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Economy (14:20) We Are Approaching A Recession (20:52) Explaining The Recent Rally (24:58)Is Liquidity Rising? (29:08) Public Ad (30:12) The True Cause Of Inflation (33:19) Debt Is Just A Tool (36:02) Outlook on Stocks And Bonds (38:25) What A Bear Market Dominated By Passive Flows Looks Like (42:47) Zero Day To Expiry Options (0DTE) (58:49) Conclusions about 0DTE Options (01:06:03) Simplify Asset Management (01:09:16) Advanced Discussion on Options & Hedging (01:13:29) Disclaimer on Options (01:14:24) Cash Is A Cheap Option -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 27 Feb 2023 12:45:00 -0000

Restrictions On Investments Into China Are Imminent | Harald Malmgren & Nicholas Glinsman


Right now, U.S. officials in Washington D.C. are preparing legislation that will cut off foreign investment into China. Thats according to Jacks two guests today, Harald Malmgren & Nick Glinsman. According to them, the Biden administration is preparing an executive order that will fundamentally alter Americas financial relationship with China. Harald Malmgren is an economist, ambassador, and former adviser to four U.S. presidents, and Nicholas Glinsman is an investor who has worked at macro hedge funds such as Brevan Howard. Their new venture Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Email jack@blockworks.co for discounted access to Malmgren Glinsman Partners (Daily newsletter $900 per year, weekly institutional product available via request). -- Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) The Fraying Of U.S China Relations (09:05) "China's Growth Model Is Dying" (18:33) Restriction of Foreign Investment In China - What Would It Look Like? (26:18) Are We In A New Economic Cold War? (35:31) Putin & Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine (41:31) "The Sternness of NATIO is New" (45:12) A Potential Peace Deal Negotiated By China? (51:49) "The Market Is Not Ready For This" (54:52) Malmgren-Glinsman Partners (59:12) Liquidity is NOT Rising, Says Malmgren (01:07:00) Is Credit Contracting? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 23 Feb 2023 12:25:00 -0000

Doomberg & Steve Keen: The Green New Deal and Energy Security


How should the world decarbonize its economy and maximize human flourishing? Steve Keen, post-Keynesian economist and Green New Deal proponent, explores this question with Doomberg, energy advocate and green chicken, in a no holds barred discourse on the future of energy and climate. -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Steve Keen on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfSteveKeen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Doomberg on Substack https://doomberg.substack.com/about Steve Keen Patreon https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) What Is Wrong With Current Energy Policy? (12:44) The Green New Deal (16:10) ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:20) "Garbage" Analysis of Climate Change by Neoclassical Economics (29:10) Permissionless Plug (30:12) Nuclear, Solar, and Wind (42:30) Government Action vs. Private Sector (51:07) Doom on Europe's Energy Situation (59:19) "I Would Be Nationalizing All Fossil Fuel Companies" (01:02:35) Research plug (01:03:33) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 20 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000

The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan


The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a soft landing scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesnt enter a recession. The odds of a soft landing appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last? Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates. Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192 -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is The Soft Landing? (04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low (12:45) January Inflation Data (19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates? (24:50) Outlook for Stocks (29:02) Permissionless Plug (30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound (36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade (41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening? (45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys (51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates (01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Learning From Financial Crises | Joseph Wang & Steven Kelly


What is a true financial crisis, how does it differ from the mere popping of a speculative bubble or a vanilla recession, and what are the current risks of a financial crisis right now? Steven Kelly, an expert on financial crises and Senior Research Associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) to discuss these questions. Wang, a former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve, shares his insight on why, despite the Feds quantitative tightening (QT) and rapid rate hikes, liquidity remains high. Kelly and Wang agree that the risk of a true financial crisis such as the one in 2008 is unlikely to occur, because as Kelly argues, banks have much more capital to endure losses. Filmed on February 13, 2023. -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Steven Kelly on bank regulation: https://rb.gy/isdjlm Joseph Wang on QThttps://rb.gy/fdwd5j -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) What Is A Financial Crisis? (05:14) "It's Really Hard To Find Capital In A Crisis" (08:16) Bank Capital Ratios (16:35) What Is The Risk Of A Financial Crisis Right Now? (22:06) The Federal Reserve As The Dealer Of Last Resort (27:20) Public Ad (28:28) Joseph Wang On The Fed During March 2020 (34:25) Do Rate Hikes and Quantitative Tightening (QT) Increase Risk of Financial Crisis? (36:51) Why Is Liquidity Rising? (42:51) What Is The "Problematic" Collateral Now? (46:36) "Everything Looks Fine" (50:49) Unrealized Losses on Bank Balance Sheets Due To Rate Hikes (54:05) Inverted Yield Curve (54:56) The Debt Ceiling (01:00:41) Is There A Limit To How High The Fed Can Hike? (01:03:36) Potential Risks In The Shadow Banking System (01:13:19) Inflation As A Financial Risk Itself -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Back


Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the worlds leading expert on global liquidity, a key concept in finance that relates to the relative ease of financing in markets around the world. After previously calling in 2022 that a collapse in liquidity would usher in a bad year for risk assets, Howell returns to Forward Guidance with happier tidings. Howell now argues that global liquidity conditions reached a nadir in October 2022 and since then have been rising, in part due to the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) injecting trillions of Yuan into the Chinese financial system, as well as money market funds pulling cash from the Feds reverse repo (RRP) facility. Howell also shares with Forward Guidance listeners his thoughts on why the yield curve is sending a false signal, as well as on private credit creation and cross-border flows. -- Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:40) Liquidity Is Rising - Why? (06:17) But What About Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (09:03) Treasury Market Liquidity & Bank Reserves (18:10) People's Bank of China Is Injecting Lots of Liquidity (25:48) Y2K Fed Comparison (30:50) Market Outlook for 2023 (32:58) Curve Ad (35:12) Liquidity Outlook For Next Few Years (41:38) Inverted Yield Curve Could Be Sending False Signal (50:40) Are Rate Cuts Actually Coming? (59:40) Private Sector Liquidity & Cross-Border Flows (1:06:50) Consequences On Global Economy (1:13:01) Is Liquidity Resurgence Already Priced In? (1:17:48) "Rebound" Phase In Liquidity Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Feb 2023 16:02:00 -0000

Bear Market Not Over, Says Veteran Trader Who Made 163% Return in 2022 | Neal Berger


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagles View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market. After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks around the world tightened liquidity, in response to the record high inflation rates that shocked markets all around the world. In this interview, Neal walks through the market dynamics that allowed him to spot this trend reversal of the previous 10+ years. As central banks began tightening & reducing liquidity, Neal launched the contrarian macro fund in April 2021 and saw an opportunity that many overlooked. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (16:14) The Fed in 2022 (21:52) "The Sell-Off Was Orderly" (24:02) Blockworks Research (25:36) The Summer Rally of July & August 2022 (27:24) Thoughts On Current Rally (32:02) Rates & Stock Relationship (36:11) Permissionless Plug (37:14) The Labor Market Is Strong (40:31) Are Stocks Pricing In A Soft Landing? (44:23) Defining Liquidity (46:42) Which Is Neal Berger More Bearish On - Stocks Or Bonds? (48:43) Is This A Suckers' Rally? (50:53) IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME (51:46) Yield Curve View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 06 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000

The Bond Market Is Wrong | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut


Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater. Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/ Joseph Wangs latest piece, Come Hell Or High Water: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308. Offer ends February 20, 2023. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief (04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong (07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%" (01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go (15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case (28:06) Curve Ad (29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling? (36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening? (46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water" (01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate (01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%? (01:14:45) Higher For Longer! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 Feb 2023 21:58:00 -0000

Central Bankers vs. The Bond Market | Roger Hirst


Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced to pivot and cut rates. Hirst also shares his view on China, silver, and the labor market. Lykeion Research https://www.thelykeion.com/research/ For more information about Real Vision Creative Studios, email customvideos@realvision.com This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today. ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:31) Disconnect Between Central Banks And Markets (11:29) The Labor Market Is Tight But Not Strong" (14:36) Fighting Against The "Doomsday Scenario" (20:57) Base Case For 2023 (24:09) Is Refinancing Risk Delayed? (29:40) Soft Landing Won't Happen But Plane Will Be Circling The Airport For Long Time (33:43) Public Ad (35:49) Controlled Explosions In China" (41:52) The Merging of Geopolitics and Macro (46:48) The Debt Supercycle (49:53) Actionable Trade Ideas: Copper, Silver, and Calls (56:23) Bonds and Oil (01:04:51) Private Equity (01:09:26) Recession Type and Length (01:15:59) The Power Of Changing Your Mind
Wed, 01 Feb 2023 22:39:00 -0000

Jim Bianco on Fed Chair Powell's Reluctance To Discipline The Bulls (February 2023 FOMC)


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation. -- Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 31 Jan 2023 20:08:22 -0000

What This Fed Watcher Is On The Lookout For | Colby Smith (February 2023 FOMC)


With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Feds policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal Reserves own forecasts will be one of the most salient issues at tomorrows press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Smith and Farley also discuss the latest economic data, the politics of the Fed, and the looming issue of the U.S. debt ceiling. Follow Colby Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/colbyLsmith Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Timestamps: (00:41) Expectations For The Fed's February FOMC Meeting (09:24) Are Financial Conditions Too Loose? (18:26) "The Fed's Threshold For Pain Is A Lot Higher" (25:48) Forward Guidance (30:55) Curve Ad (32:00) Employment Costs & Other Economic Data (37:09) Will The Fed Hike Again In May (After It Likely Hikes Again in March)? (40:12) New Voting Members on The FOMC (43:26) Will Powell Be In "Attack Mode" Tomorrow? (47:49) The Fed's Balance Sheet & Quantitative Tightening (QT) (51:14) The Debt Ceiling (53:34) The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility
Tue, 31 Jan 2023 14:48:58 -0000

Earnings Season Is Strong (So Far) | Sam Burns


Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023. Follow Mill Street Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MillStResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Outlook for 2023 (06:00) Cyclical Stocks Are Outperforming Defensive Stocks (11:37) Stocks vs. Bonds Valuations (17:17) Earnings Growth Outlook for S&P 500 Stocks (20:46) Incentives of Sell-Side Analysts (28:35) Earnings Revisions By Sector (31:30) Permissionless Plug (32:33)China, Gold Miners, and Airlines (37:06) European Stocks (43:35) What Is Sam Most Bearish On? (45:53) The Fed (55:40) Inverted Yield Curve
Thu, 26 Jan 2023 14:52:44 -0000

The Bear Market Ended Months Ago, Says Master of Turning Points | Milton Berg


Milton Berg is a quiet legend of technical analysis whose work is regularly used by the worlds most accomplished investors. He joins Jack Farley to share his reading of specific patterns in the market that to him are strong bullish indicators. Berg argues that the recession already occurred in 2022 and that the best time to buy stocks is coming out a recession. Berg shares with Farley in-depth analysis of the breadth and volume characteristics of recent price action that make him think that the bear market is over. Berg is particularly constructive on China and gold miners, and in addition he and Farley debate the meaning of the steep yield curve inversion. Milton Berg Advisors is a boutique consulting and research firm that offers investment advisory services exclusively to institutional investors. More info can be found at https://miltonberg.com/. Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Milton Berg's Way Of Analyzing Markets (09:31) A Transition From Inflation To Recession Is Bullish For Stocks (12:13) Comparison To Dot-Com Crash (17:24) "The Market Bottomed In June" (21:12) Bullish On Chinese & U.S. Stocks (29:37) Permissionless Plug (30:39) But What About Bear Market Rallies? (42:58) "I Have Zero Sell Signals" (45:08) But What About The Inverted Yield Curve? (47:44) The Unemployment Rate (56:53) China Stocks and Gold (01:04:44) Milton Berg's Outlook on Treasury Bonds __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 23 Jan 2023 15:23:00 -0000

Dusting Off The Recession Playbook | Tian Yang


The last time Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception, appeared on Forward Guidance in August 2022, he gave viewers a well-timed warning that the commodity supercycle was on hold. Now, he returns to argues that the world is well on its way to a global recession that will provide a hostile environment for risk assets. Yang shares his equity bottom checklist with Jack Farley to argue that equities have much more down to fall, and he explains why he thinks risk-off assets like bonds will perform well. Yang expects a blow-out of credit spreads and he thinks that the U.S. dollar will perform less well against other currencies than it does in a typical recession. Filmed on January 12th, 2023. Follow Variant Perception on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:36) Base Case For 2023 (04:14) Where's The Recession? (08:11) Liquidity (18:25) Housing and Manufacturing Are Weak (24:21) Interest Rates (28:05) Cruve Ad (29:08) China (33:36) Underweight Equities (Asset Allocation Part 1) (43:03) The Checklist For A Market Bottom (47:19) Incredibly Rare Set-up in Gold" (48:43) Overweight Bonds (Asset Allocation Part 2) (55:19) Neutral On Commodities (Asset Allocation Part 3) (01:02:26) The U.S. Dollar (01:05:13) The Most Crowded Trade In Macro Right Now (01:11:22) The VIX in 2023
Thu, 19 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Transitory Goldilocks Is Here | Darius Dale


Darius Dale of 42 Macro once again joins Jack to share his macro view for 2023. Dale argues that, while inflation and growth are falling, inflation is falling so much faster than growth is falling, and economic resilience is rearing its head in many areas. As a result, it may appear that the so-called soft landing could be achieved this year. At least thats what many asset markets that Dale tracks closely are indicating. This environment is conducive to risk assets rallying and volatility abating - at least in the short-term. However, Dale shares his own view that this current period of economic moderation is likely only a transitory goldilocks that will give way to a recession that begins in the fourth quarter of 2023. Dale also shares his outlook on China, bonds, and Bitcoin. Filmed on January 12, 2023. -- Follow 42 Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAlerts Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAware Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Have The Odds Of A "Soft Landing" Increased? (06:59) Transitory Goldilocks" (13:53) The Fed Is Focused More On Wage Growth & Labor Market Now Than Inflation (20:20) Odds Of The Fed Cutting Rates (27:17) Permissionless Ad (28:17) But Isn't Growth Falling Rapidly? (40:13) Is Inflation Eating Away At Wealth? (44:59) Is Liquidity Turning Up? (53:53) Asset Allocation (01:02:27) "Tons of Upside In China" -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 18 Jan 2023 19:00:00 -0000

Bank of Japan Widow-Makes Once Again | Weston Nakamura


The last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy. At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing nothing. Despite the unprecedented scale of record-setting JGB buying (or, foreign and domestic investor selling pressure), the Bank of Japan delivered a unanimous vote of no change in Yield Curve Control policy for Governor Kuroda's second to last meeting of his historic, and dramatically controversial tenure of radical policy experimentation. Ahead of today's policy release, Weston had been discussing his outlook for a "no-change" BOJ policy outcome, and had positioned for the event against market consensus, using the same framework that he and Jack had discussed at the end of December of market functioning and financial stability to determine policy outcome (as opposed to inflation-combating). In addition to the Bank of Japan and the most intense market pressure they are currently under, Weston also explains what is behind the remarkable strength in the yen as of late, how it is possible for JGBs to yield above the so-called Yield Curve Control upper ceiling, and what's next for the "least predictable" major central bank, as we head into the critical end of Governor Kuroda's era. See Weston and Jack from the previous December 2022 BOJ Day: Bank of Japans Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston NakamuraDec 21, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYR34YbXMvY&t=157s Listen to Weston Nakamura and Emma Muhleman, CFA discuss the Bank of Japan in full detail on Twitter Spaces during live Japan trading hours ahead of the BOJ decision here: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BdGYyNpYAyGX?s=20 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Weston on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __
Mon, 16 Jan 2023 23:38:31 -0000

The Soft Landing Blue Pill Is Overpriced | Andy Constan


Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two blue pill scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Constan says he is positioned to fade these two scenarios by being short everything - namely, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Constan explains why he is betting on red pill scenarios of either a severe recession or higher-er for longer-er interest rates. Filmed on January 11, 2022. __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:47) "I'm Short Everything" (08:24) Blue Pill Scenarios (Soft Landing Or Fed Pivot) Are Less Likely Than Market Is Pricing In (15:19) Betting Against Rate Cuts (23:06) Curve ad (24:08) Are Stocks Expensive Relative to Bonds? (30:51) Equity Risk Premium (ERP) (40:36) In China, Cash Is Trash (49:08) Views on Commodities (54:28) Can the Superb Macro Returns of 2022 Be Repeated? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 13 Jan 2023 22:24:47 -0000

The Big Bank Deep Dive | Alex Gray


Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 As big banks start to report their earnings, Jack turns to banking specialist Alex Gray for insight. Gray taps her prior experience both as a commercial banking underwriter and as a senior analyst of large cap banking stocks to glean insights from the fourth quarter reports of JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM)., Bank of America ($BAC), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Gray navigates the delicate balance between loan growth and credit quality, evaluates the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserves rapid rate hikes on the profitability and balance sheets of the nations largest money centers. As disclosed in the interview, Alex Gray currently serves as the director of finance for Blockworks. Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) How To Value Bank Stocks (03:10) Bank Profitability When Interest Rates Are At Zero (10:07) How To Measure Credit Losses (14:09) Commercial Lending Is In A New Bull Market (21:17) The Importance of Collateral (26:20) Permissionless Ad (33:55) Current Default Rates Are Low (But Rising) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 12 Jan 2023 18:18:00 -0000

Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? | Jeff Snider & Bob Elliott


Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- With U.S. monthly inflation coming in negative, whats in store for the future economy and interest rate path? Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, and Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, discuss. -- Follow Jeff Snider on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Unlimited Funds on Twitter https://twitter.com/UnlimitedFnds Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) December CPI Report (08:45) Is There Monetary Inflation? (11:45) The Labor Market Remains Strong (Or Does It?) (32:37) Personal Income (34:43) Permissionless Plug (35:43) Biblical Levels of Yield Curve Inversion (54:25) Consumer Spending & Bank Lending -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 10 Jan 2023 20:55:00 -0000

Jacob Shapiro on Russia, Ukraine, and China


Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments and geopolitics editor at Lykeion, joins Jack to share his geopolitical outlook for 2023. Jacob tells Jack why he thinks that Russias war again Ukraine will sadly continue for some time, and he explains how the war is impacting global supply chains, commodity prices, and international relations. Jacob also shares with Jack his take on Chinas economy, which is at a crossroads between a slow-motion train wreck of its collapsing real estate sector, and the reflationary tailwinds from the end of its zero-Covid policy. Filmed on January 10, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:43) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (06:07) Economic Consequences of The War (13:35) China and India Are Buying Russian Oil In Bulk (15:42) European Price Cap On Russian Oil (19:47) Who Are Russia's Allies? (22:52) How Might This War End? (31:33) Permissionless Plug (32:33) China (35:34) Will Liquidity Be Restored In China? (49:00) Taiwan & Semiconductors -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 09 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

The Era of American Stock Dominance Is Over | Kevin Muir


In December 2021, Kevin Muir, veteran trader and author of The Macro Tourist, came on Forward Guidance and made a series of bold predictions all of which came true. Now, with a red carpet rolled out for him, Kevin returns to Forward Guidance to share his predictions for 2023. Kevin argues that U.S. stocks will underperform foreign equities, that 2023 will be far more boring than investors expect, and that deep trouble is brewing in private markets (venture capital, private equity, and private debt). Kevin also contends that the economy might fare better than many anticipate, and that bank stocks will do well. Filmed the afternoon of January 6th, 2023. -- Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muirs newsletter, The Macro Tourist, can be found here: https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Kevins interview on Forward Guidance in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJkEokqqaKM&t=400s -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) The Fed (05:43) When Will Recession Come (If At All)? (13:32) 2023 Will Be More Boring Than People Expect (18:09) The Bond Market Pain Might Continue (25:01) Where Is The Terminal Rate? (29:25) Curve Ad (30:26) The Era of U.S. Equity Outperformance Is Over (47:42) There Will Be Trouble In Private Markets (01:00:54) The Tide Is Out, Who Will Be Left Swimming Naked? (01:08:06) The Banks Will Do Fine (01:13:57) Outlook on Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 06 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Cryptos 2023 Health Check | Vance Spencer


Vance Spencer, co-founder of Framework Ventures, a venture firm that invests exclusively in digital assets, joins Jack to look back on cryptos rough 2022 and look forward to what is on the horizon. Spencer shares his framework for valuing digital assets, explains why he thinks the vast majority of crypto projects are unsuitable for this valuation methods, and offers his reasoning for why he is very bullish on Ethereum above all else. Filmed on December 21, 2022. -- Follow Vance Spencer on Twitter https://twitter.com/pythianism Follow Framework Ventures on Twitter https://twitter.com/hiframework Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:36) The Seeds of A Bear Market (10:10) Why Vance Is Skeptical On Solana (12:57) Crypto Health Check in 2023 (16:17) How Does Macro Impact Crypto? (24:53) Permissionless Ad (25:53) Big Tech (27:38) Genesis And The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (32:10) Crypto "Yield" And Its Many Problems (35:59) Bitcoin (41:08) Valuation of Eth (45:24) Contagion Risks Within Crypto (48:25) Tether (50:48) Investment Strategies In A Bear Market (52:33) Crypto Gaming & The Metaverse (59:57) Who Had Accounts At FTX? (01:01:48) Why have prices been rangebound over the past month? (01:03:11) Non-Ethereum Projects That Vance Likes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Nightmare Scenario For The Fed | Felix Jauvin


Felix Jauvin, macro analyst at Reflexivity Research, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on liquidity, the Fed, and inflation. Jauvin argues that the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is removing from the financial system via quantitative tightening (QT) is being sterilized by the draining of the Feds reverse repo facility (RRP) - in other words, the Federal Reserve is removing money with one hand and adding money back with another. Jauvin shares his outlook on assets such as bonds, stocks, commodities, the dollar, and crypto. Filmed on December 20, 2022. -- Follow Felix Jauvin on Twitter https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Liquidity In 2023 (15:30) Reverse Repo & Treasury General Account (TGA) (20:59) What's Going To Break? (30:05) A "Nightmare Scenario" For Powell And The Fed (34:16)Pivot And Yield Curve Control (37:07) Views On Inflation (43:57) Commodities Outlook (48:57) Equities (56:03) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 02 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

A Masterclass In Central Banking | Professor Jane Knodell


Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and author of "The Second Bank of the United States: Central banker in an era of nation-building" joins the show for a masterclass in financial history. Taking us back to the founding of the First & Second Bank of the United States, Knodell discusses the origins of banking, central banking and everything in between, taking us on a tour from the late 1700's to present day. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) The First Bank In The United States (04:29) The Coinage Act Of 1790 (08:37) The Financing Of The Revolutionary War (14:40) How Successful Was The First Bank? (17:14) The Second Bank of the United States: Central Banker in an Era of Nation-Building (24:50) The Mechanics of "Discounts, Exchange & Treasury Debt" (29:05) The Panic Of 1819 (33:02) The Panic of 1825 & The Role Of "Central" Banking (40:12) Did The Second Bank of the United States Closing In 1836 Have Any Effect On The Panic Of 1837? (46:29) The Panic Of 1907: The J.P. Morgan Bailouts (53:55) The Financial System's Plumbing (57:54) The Financing of WWI (01:02:34) The Great Depression (01:07:47) Can The Federal Reserve Print Money? (01:11:13) Bretton Woods (01:15:35) The Treasury-Fed Accord (01:19:15) The FTX Fallout -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 29 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

All You Ever Wanted To Know About Interest Rates | DC Analyst


Interest rates are a key measure of the price of money, but as the plural suggests, there is one more than just one interest rate. Today Jack dives deep into the interest rate structure with whiz kid Kemen Linsuain, known commonly as DC Analyst, who knows a thing or two about the many different kinds of risk-free rates that punctuate the financial system. Kemen tells of the Federal Funds rate, which is the nominal overnight rate that the Federal Reserve controls, to other rates within the Feds remit such as the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the reverse repo rate (RRP). Kemen and Jack then discuss overnight interest rates not within the Feds control such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), and then other rates and derivatives such as Treasury bill futures and swap rates. Note: the vast majority of rates discussed in this conversation are short-term rates with minimal amounts of credit risk, and should not be confused with corporate bond yield, mortgage rates, or commercial banking rates. Lastly, Kemen shares his thoughts on crypto, and tells Jack about his latest venture into crypto as a content creator at Gauntlet. -- About Gauntlet: https://gauntlet.network/ DC Analyst blog: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/ Latest chartback from DC Analyst: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-17 Follow Kemen on Twitter https://twitter.com/AnalystDC Follow Gauntlet on Twitter https://twitter.com/gauntletnetwork Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Interest Rate Mayhem in 2022 (14:19) Repo Markets (21:08) Curve Ad (22:14) Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) (37:03) Interest Rate Derivatives Market (41:39) LIBOR to SOFR Transition (50:14) Spread Between EFFR & SOFR (Effective Fed Funds Rate & Secured Overnight Financing Rate) (55:26) Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) and Forward Rate Agreements (FRA) (56:50) Negative Swap Spreads (59:48) Term Premium (01:02:12) Thoughts On The Fed (01:06:53) Crypto & DeFi (01:13:34) Where Did The (Crypto) Yield Come From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 26 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Fed Will Tighten "As Far As They Can" Into 2023 | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves


Today Jack welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that transitory will die and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high. Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets. -- Follow George Goncalves on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (09:33) The Tightening of Financial Conditions (13:37 Forecasting The Fed Terminal Rate Into 2023 (20:33) Curve Ad (21:36) A Classic Boom/Bust Cycle? (29:12) Lagarde Is Undoubtedly Hawkish (31:26) Should We Listen To The Fed's Forward Guidance? (36:58) The Cycle of Financial Conditions (47:19) Stocks, Bonds & The Wealth Effect (49:54) 2023 Outlook For Risk Asset's (56:37) Analysing The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening (01:03:12) George & Joseph's Final Thoughts & Outlook For 2023 (01:12:00) The Outlook For Bonds Throughout 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 22 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Private Markets To Implode As Fed Hikes to 7% | Bilal Hafeez


Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins todays interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code JACK. Offer ends on January 6th, 2022. Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hives analysis, check out Bilals piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/ -- Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) Macro Outlook For 2023 (05:32) Severe Recession Incoming (10:20) Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023 (22:55) Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain (25:38) Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace (31:16) China (38:15) Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess? (42:08) Bond Market Outlook (49:39) Energy (54:21) Is Europe In A Recession? (55:51) How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates? (57:35) Discount To Macro Hive Prime (01:00:24) The U.S. Dollar (01:09:59) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 20 Dec 2022 23:26:09 -0000

Bank of Japans Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston Nakamura


The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and theres no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado. Weston tells Jack that the BOJs decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year. Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022. Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Mon, 19 Dec 2022 13:15:00 -0000

The Technicals Are Bearish | Katie Stockton


Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies and portfolio manager of the $TACK ETF, joins Jack Farley to share her analysis of the charts of stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the first technical analysis interview on Forward Guidance, Stockton explains and incorporates indicators such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Ichimoku clouds, moving averages, and stochastic oscillators. She tells Jack that in the short-run, the technicals remain bearish for the S&P 500, and she also offers her reading on oil, gold, and the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on Friday, December 16, 2022. -- Follow Katie Stockton on Twitter https://twitter.com/StocktonKatie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:23) Key Concepts In Technical Analysis (TA) (05:30) Support And Resistance (11:06) Combining Different Indicators To Draw Conclusions (24:02) Curve Ad (25:08) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explainer (33:02) Outlook on S&P 500 (35:36) Outlook on Oil (44:48) Gold (46:47) Treasury Yields (50:24) Sector Analysis (54:18) Common Mistakes In Technical Analysis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 16 Dec 2022 22:30:00 -0000

Chinas Economic House Of Cards | Kyle Bass & Nick Glinsman


Todays interview is something unlike any other thats ever appeared on Forward Guidance. It concerns China, a country that once was the engine of global economic growth, but now is in the middle of its worst recession in over 20 years. Can Chinas economy emerge stronger than ever? Lets just say that todays guests, Kyle Bass and Nick Glinsman, are not optimistic. Kyle Bass is the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital and Nick Glinsman is the founder of Malmgren Glinsman & Partners. An important disclaimer: a guest today makes serious allegations that are solely his own opinion. Blockworks does not necessarily agree with these claims, some of which are unverified or unverifiable, and in no way endorses them. As always, nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Follow Kyle Bass on Twitter https://twitter.com/Jkylebass Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Kyle Bass 2023 Macro Outlook (04:20) Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices? (13:10) China's Economy (23:00) The Chinese Communist Party (28:46) Why Won't Beijing Reflate? (43:57) Russia and Putin (48:42) Uranium and the Fed (52:19) Outlook on Bonds in 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Dec 2022 22:20:00 -0000

Everything You Need To Know About The Feds Meeting | Danielle DiMartino Booth


Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, joins Jack to share her views on the upcoming extremely busy week, which sees the release of Novembers inflation (CPI) data on Tuesday and the culmination of the Feds FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, December 12. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:04) Preparing For This Week's Fed Meeting (04:37) The Dot Plot (13:50) What Are The Odds Of A Hidden Pivot? (17:42) The Job Market (24:54) How Hot Will Inflation Be? (30:21) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (40:46) The Housing And Auto Market Is Getting Even Worse (45:40) Recession (48:08) Consumer Spending Is Falling (51:33) Can Services Save Us?
Fri, 09 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Felix Zulauf: Credit Meltdown Will Force The Federal Reserve To Backtrack On Tight Money Policy


Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share his market outlook for 2023 and beyond. Zulauf argues that recessions in China and Europe will weaken corporate earnings, and that as the U.S. economy also slows down, pessimistic earnings guidance from companies will quickly catalyze severe stock market declines. However, he thinks that the bear market will likely end in early 2023, because a credit event (likely in China) will force central banks - most notably the Federal Reserve - to stop tightening monetary policy, and that this pivot will arrest the fall in equity prices. Zulauf tells Jack Farley that Chinas growing trade dominance is augering profound geopolitical and economic changes, and he shares his view on sovereign bond yields, cryptocurrencies, and commodity prices. Filmed on December 7, 2022 Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. For more information, go to https://www.felixzulauf.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Profound Geopolitical Change (05:51) Stock Market Outlook (9:31) Potential Credit Meltdown In China (18:06) Curve Sponsor Reading (19:11) China's Stock Market Does Not Represent The Chinese Economy (22:09) Why Is The Euro So Weak? (24:09) The U.S. Dollar (26:57) Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Treasury Bonds (35:27) The Federal Reserve Will Pivot In Early 2023 (39:22) The Final Phase Of The Equity Bear Market (45:12) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 08 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

David Rubenstein, Billionaire Investor Who Hired Jay Powell, On What Makes A Great Investor


Today Jack speaks to a true titan in the investment business. David Rubenstein is the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm with over $360 Billion in assets under management, and he joins Forward Guidance to share lessons from his latest book, How To Invest: Masters On The Craft, in which he spoke to legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and Jim Simons about the keys to their success. Link to David Rubensteins book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Invest-David-M-Rubenstein/dp/1982190302 Link to David Rubensteins interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nwf_VySYFU&t=601s Link to David Rubensteins interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLE3eRMFUJo&t=17s -- Follow David Rubenstein on Twitter https://twitter.com/DM_Rubenstein Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) What Makes A Great Investor? (04:16) David Rubenstein's Journey Into Private Equity (09:06) Importance Of Getting Involved In On The Ground Floor (11:42) Fundraising (19:22) Inflation (21:05) The Business Cycle (24:22) Venture Capital and Technology Valuations (27:36) Economic Outlook (29:22) How High Will The Federal Reserve Hike Interest Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 05 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Cash Is King In Multi-Year Recessionary Bear Market | Chance Finucane


Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack to discuss his investment outlook at this current point in the business cycle. Finucane argues that the U.S. is at the beginning of a multi-year economic slowdown that will see corporate earnings dwindle materially across many sectors, and that accordingly preservation of capital is top priority. Finucane and Farley discuss the housing and auto market, outlook on fixed-income and the Federal Reserve, as well as individual stock ideas. Filmed on November 21, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Outlooks on Growth and Inflation (02:39) The Housing Market Recession (05:33) The Auto Market (08:05) General Investment Outlook (10:49) MegaCap Tech Stocks (13:19) Banks and Other Financial Stocks (14:15) Fixed-Income Outlook (16:49) Is Sentiment Too Bearish? (19:34) How Much Will Corporate Earnings Grow In 2023 (if at all)? (22:19) Curve Ad (23:21) How High Will The Fed Hike Interest Rates? (27:09) Municipal and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (28:34) Even More Bearish Than Summer 2022 (33:16) Long-Duration Treasurys (34:41) Sectors and Individual Stocks (36:31) Will Companies Be Able to Pass Costs Onto Consumers In 2023? (42:56) Energy (44:32) About Oxbow -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Car Market Is Crashing | Paul Hodges


To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Having shared his dire warnings about the chemicals market, Paul Hodges, and author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share equally grim tidings about the global automotive industry, which Hodges argues is entering a severe recession. Hodges notes that sales volumes and car prices are falling sharply around the world, and he discusses cyclical as well as secular themes in Asian, European, and American automobile markets. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) The Health Of The Global Car Market (05:08) The U.S. Auto Market (13:49) Car Values Are Falling - What's Next? (24:32) Slowdown in Chinese Auto Market (30:30) Tesla (33:43) Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - When WIll They Become Mainstream? (45:23) Europe's Auto Market (51:23) Investing In Electric and Autonomous Vehicles (01:06:51) China's Relationships with Non-Chinese Automakers (01:10:33) The pH Report As a Research Partner of Forward Guidance (01:14:05) The Chemicals Market Remains Stupendously Bearish -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 29 Nov 2022 21:11:26 -0000

FTX and The Money Noose: Scott Skyrm On The Fall of MF Global


Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global. Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of risk-free trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by yes men, and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global). Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much worse than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jacks reading that FTX likely misused (or at least mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (repo) markets in 2022, as well as the Feds dilemma between price stability and financial stability. Follow Scott on Twitter https://twitter.com/ScottSkyrm Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global? (02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008 (11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds? (20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX (23:29) Cross-Margining (32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades (40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades (43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM (47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate (53:59) The Fed's Dilemma (58:51) The Repo Market in 2022 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 28 Nov 2022 20:30:00 -0000

CeFi Crypto Contagion Is Just Getting Started, Says Analyst Who Predicted FTX's Fall


James Block, author at Dirty Bubble Media, joins Jack to explain the knock-on effects of the demise of the crypto exchange FTX. James is an amateur crypto researcher who saw in FTX and Alameda Research what many crypto professionals missed: hidden leverage, inflated assets, and in some cases, outright fraud. He now shares his view on potential contagion to Gemini, Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), BlockFi, and other firms in the crypto ecosystem. James writings at Dirty Bubble Media can be found here: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/ James piece on Alameda Research: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent James piece on Digital Currency Group (DCG): https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/digital-currency-grift __ Follow James on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburg Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:45)"Is Alameda Research Insolvent?" (03:02) Red Flags With Alameda & Celsius (12:35) Binance (15:01) Crypto Contagion (19:13) Curve Ad (20:16) Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Genesis (35:16) Where Did Crypto Yield Come From? (40:00) Was The $8 Billion Ever At FTX To Begin With? (45:11) What's The Next Shoe To Drop? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 24 Nov 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Liquidity In Crypto Is Declining | Scott Freeman


Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Frieds (SBF) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Scott Freeman's Background (04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015 (09:06) Crypto in 2020 (12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022 (15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto (19:23) Where Does Yield Come From? (20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising? (22:07) Algorand Ad (23:52) Alameda & FTX (29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried (34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges (39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es) (40:13) General Market Outlook (42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) (49:07)Is There A Silver Lining? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 21 Nov 2022 14:30:00 -0000

Learning From Market Tremors | Hari Krishnan


Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline. Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Hari Krishnans book, Market Tremors: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:24) Dominant Agents" In Finance (04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful? (13:26) The Shadow Banking System (17:28)The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks (19:12) Curve Ad (25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative? (27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX (38:56) Leverage Within Crypto (42:45)Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners (44:36) Volatility In 2022 (58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market (01:04:27) The Role Of Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 17 Nov 2022 14:30:00 -0000

Joseph Wang & William White: Mammoth Interest Rate Hikes Are Causing Trouble In Sovereign Debt


Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve. They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the debt trap, and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability. William Whites work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/ Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Academic papers referenced: "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8 "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling: https://rb.gy/robwk2 -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Looking Back At 2022 (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error" (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models? (25:25) Algorand Ad (27:09)If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do? (40:43) The Debt Trap (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake? (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 14 Nov 2022 13:45:00 -0000

Forced Retirement Selling May Disrupt Santa Rally | Zed Francis


Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/ Convexitas piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/ Convexitas piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Financialization Of Everything (10:27) Private Markets (17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained (19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense (26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail (38:41) Stocks and Volatility (41:53) "Ignore The VIX" (45:19) Tail Risk (50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks? (01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market (01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen (01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts (01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays (01:26:00) Basis Risk __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 10 Nov 2022 19:16:00 -0000

Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone


Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists. McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so. NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTXs distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX. Follow Mike McGlone on Twitter https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:15) We're Going Down" (05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto (07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil (11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked? (22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand? (26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic? (29:42) Forward Curve In Oil (38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession (47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil? (50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation (55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 09 Nov 2022 22:42:11 -0000

Theres Just Not Enough Energy | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins


Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g -- Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com or jack@blockworks.co -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Tue, 08 Nov 2022 23:00:00 -0000

Everything You Need To Know About Crypto's FTX-Driven Downturn | Matt Fiebach


In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges. Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day, and FTXs rumored acquisition by Binance, a digital asset behemoth led by Chengpeng Zhao (CZ) that, should the acquisition close, would become the undisputed king of all crypto exchange. Matt and Farley consider financial contagion risk within crypto as well as in the broader traditional finance (tradfi) world. __ Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Matt Fiebach on Twitter https://twitter.com/MattFiebach Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:54)Overview of FTX's Problems (02:49) Alameda Research's Balance Sheet (09:09) FTX As A Big Blue-Chip Player In Crypto (13:16) Possible Outcomes (16:31) Was FTX Investing Customer Assets? (20:25) Risk Of Contagion (27:48) Matt Fiebach's Background (30:42) About Blockworks Research (31:49) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 07 Nov 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Economy Is Slowing Much Faster Than The Fed Thinks | Peter Tchir


In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserves models indicate. Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewing geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. will likely continue to weigh upon financial markets, and he shares his insights on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe. -- Follow Peter Tchir on Twitter https://twitter.com/TFMkts Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) "I Would Disagree With Powell" On The U.S. Economy (06:03) "Credit Bubbles Only Happen With Safe Assets" (08:17) Layoffs In Big Tech (12:17) This Will Be A Deep And Lasting Recession (14:31) The Semiconductor Industry (20:34) China (33:52) Energy (36:56)) Regulation of Fossil Fuels (40:41) When Will The Drawdown of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Stop? (44:27) Will Europe's Energy Problems Cause A Recession? (48:26) The Strong Dollar Is Destabalizing The Global Financial System (59:30) The Increasing Political Pressure On The Federal Reserve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 04 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Chemicals Market Is Bearish Stupendously Bearish | Paul Hodges


To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand will slow rapidly around the globe. After reviewing how and why the chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy, Hodges tells Jack Farley how the collapse in chemical prices is a harbinger for a severe global recession. Unrelenting high energy prices, which are a key input to chemical production, are making the chemical refining business even more challenging. Hodges and Farley also discuss the future of inflation and how it is affected by central banks, geopolitics, and demographics. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:51) Chemicals Market Is Indicating The Recession Will Be Deep (14:03) The Mood Is Grim" In The Chemicals Business (19:21) Demographics Are Not Helping! (23:25) The Yield Curve Is Not The Be-All End-All (32:35) Chemical Prices Are Collapsing (40:04) Has Inflation Peaked? (44:44) In A Recession, Earnings Go Down (46:19) The Fed Put Is No More (52:51) A Food Crisis Is Brewing (55:46) Oil and Natural Gas (01:03:31) How Will Europe Handle This Winter? (01:11:17) There Is Considerable Downside Risk" (01:14:42) Discount To pH Report, Paul Hodges' Research Service -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 03 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Jim Bianco & Joseph Wang on November Fed Meeting: Much Higher For Much Longer!


Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:42) General Thoughts on The November FOMC Meeting (04:48) New Sentence On Monetary Policy Acting With A Leg (12:57) Strong Labor Market (19:44) Why Should The Fed Not Hike By 75 Basis Points in December? (23:29) Powell's Yield Curve Is About To Invert (31:05)Is A Soft Landing Still Possible? (43:38) A Treasury Buyback Program Is NOT Coming to Rescue The Bond Market (At Least In 2022) (51:42) A Financial Accident Is Getting More And More Likely __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 01 Nov 2022 20:41:53 -0000

Joseph Wang & Nick Timiraos: What You Need To Know For The November Fed Meeting


With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Feds job even harder. Timiraos Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd. ______ Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ______ Joseph Wangs book, Central Banking 101: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747 Nick Timiraos book, Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic And Prevented Economic Disaster: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/ Nick Timiraos article: Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates Coming Path: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181 Nick Timiraos article: Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614 Josephs Wang piece, The Money Still Flows: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/ Joseph Wangs piece on Treasury Buybacks (Quantitative Buybacks): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/ ______ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ ______ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting (11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong (19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet (28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak" (31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback (31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target? (46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates? (49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell (56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet? Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ______
Mon, 31 Oct 2022 16:53:23 -0000

Inflation Will Run Hot For The Rest Of The Decade, Says Vincent Deluard


Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration. Deluard proposes a holy Trinity portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary (17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory (27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression (39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly (46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks? (51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep? (57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF) (01:02:51) Energy (01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market (01:14:44) Brazil and Gold (01:16:40) Favorite Books Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ___
Fri, 28 Oct 2022 17:23:00 -0000

IMPORTANT: Announcing Blockworks Latest Podcast, 0xResearch


Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed pivot might impact asset prices. Filmed on October 26, 2022. Follow Sam Martin on Twitter https://twitter.com/swmartin19 Follow Dan Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/smyyguy Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Sign up for the Research daily newsletter here: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily-debrief-by-blockworks-research/ -- Timestamps; (00:00) Intro (00:25) Macro and Crypto (03:10) Navigating A Crypto Bear Market (10:48) Ethereum Supply Curve (28:18) About The 0xResearch Podcast (30:14) Zero Knowledge Roll-ups (36:37) Ethereum & Cosmos (44:55) Bitcoin (52:30) Jack Answers Macro Questions
Fri, 28 Oct 2022 16:30:00 -0000

The European Central Bank Goes On The Offensive | Daniel Neilson (LIVE)


Daniel Neilson, economist and author of Minksy and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Banks efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade. Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks. Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollar Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj _ Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. _ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 27 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Lyn Alden: The Bursting Of The Sovereign Bond Bubble


In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures. 1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing pressures for central banks to reliquify their beleaguered bond markets. Filmed on October 20th, 2022. Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (19:54) What Will Cause The Fed To Pivot? (26:21) The Treasury Market Is Not In Full Panic Mode Yet (33:45) Recession Risk (35:24) Asset Allocation (38:26) The Dollar and Emerging Markets (45:45) Energy (53:49) When Will The Dollar Stop Rising? (01:01:54) The Long-Term Debt Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 24 Oct 2022 18:06:00 -0000

The Fed Wont Rescue The Housing Market | Danielle DiMartino Booth


Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a biblical quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booths description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernankes Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) The Housing Recession (09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck (19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic? (23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex (24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking (26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue (31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022" (43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market? (48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing (51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature" (53:57)Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move? (58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S. -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 20 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Fed Blundered In 2008 And Its Blundering Now | Richard Field


Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Feds current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake. -- Follow Richard Field on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tyillc Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/igyzsj___ -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off:https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Algorand Promotion (00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize (04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake? (14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (28:02) Algorand Promotion (29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake? (37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field (52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation" (54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It? (57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market? (01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent? (01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008" (01:37:34) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 18 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Oil Will Dethrone The Fed (Heres Why) | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins


Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kuppy Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Feds job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment. Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. -- Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) KEDM promotion (00:51) Intro (01:07) Overall Macro Thesis (11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (16:06) The Bull Case For Oil (22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting (30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong" (35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment (40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil (55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season (1:02:41) A Market Crash (1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM) (1:11:19) KEDM promotion (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 17 Oct 2022 16:00:00 -0000

Banks Are Finally Making Money Again | Chris Whalen


Its banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking(taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans. That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalens unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, youll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14. -- Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://rb.gy/enkm0e Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Bittrex Ad (00:10) Intro (00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks (03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over" (07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend) (09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning (12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be? (16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business (21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (23:18) Bittrex Ad (23:49) Winter For Investment Banking (27:48) The Biggest Risks (30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat (35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses? (47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America (55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession? (58:09) FinTech (59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS) (01:01:51) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 13 Oct 2022 13:00:00 -0000

George Noble: A 20-50% Market Crash Is Coming


Filmed on October 11, 2022. When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented return free risk and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact that he would be shocked if the S&P 500 werent under 3000 within 3 months (as of time of recording on October 11, 2022, the S&P 500 stood at 3850). __ George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) intro (03:30) U.K. Gilt Crisis (16:20) The Labor Market (20:16) Energy and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:52) The Bull Market In Narratives Is Over (27:20) Just How Bearish Are You, George?' (30:51) The Bull Case (34:07) The Bond Market Is Wrong (39:02) Will A Recession Cause The Fed To Come To The Rescue? (47:03) Cash Is King (50:33) Bad News Is Bad News (58:51)When Will The Market Bottom? (01:09:28) Frogs In The Pot -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 10 Oct 2022 14:00:00 -0000

The Bond Market Is Already Broken - Stocks and Housing Are Next | Harley Bassman & Joseph Wang


Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jacks view, have predicted and understood this years sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve. Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration. Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022. -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at:http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/q0eztp Follow Harley Bassman on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/8a1rs4 Follow Simplify on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/pavfzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wangs writings can be found athttps://rb.gy/oocxuzand Bassmans latest commentary as The Convexity Maven can be found here:https://rb.gy/xbibuj. -- Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit:https://rb.gy/uxefzo Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (01:00) Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over? (11:57) Risks in The Stock Market (13:53) When Will Powell Pivot? (18:45) The Housing Market Is Already Broken (20:37) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:08) Bittrex Ad (28:42) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:45) How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off (34:39) Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds (40:31) The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market (48:12) If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do? (52:33) Questions From The Audience (55:29) Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves (59:05) Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market (1:02:38) Will Commercial Banks Lose Money? (1:04:21) Reverse Repo Facility (1:05:07) Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg? (1:08:17) How High Will The Fed Hike To? (1:09:31) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 06 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Learning From the Most Ruthless Robber Baron (Jay Gould) | Greg Steinmetz


Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit Greg Steinmetz, investor and financial writer, joins Jack to share insights from his new book,American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Streets Biggest Fortune. Steinmetz maps the financial skullduggery of Jay Gould, an infamous robber baron and investor whose market manipulations left an indelible mark on finance. Steinmetz tells Jack about Goulds unscrupulous schemes in railroad stocks and gold, which destabilized the financial system and made him one of the most hated man in America. Invoking modern-day analogies such as Elon Musk and meme stocks, Steinmetz evaluates the legacy of Americas most daring and ruthless financier, and offers his view on what modern-day investors can learn from Goulds life. -- Follow Greg Steinmetz on Twitter Follow Jack Farley on Twitter Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter Follow Blockworks on Twitter Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Chapter: Why Jay Gould? (04:05) Gould's Greatest Misdeeds (07:10) Chapter: Cornering The Gold Market (14:18) Fragility of The Banking System During "Free Banking" Era (16:56) Gould's "Deposit Trick" (20:02) Tricks in the Gilded Age vs. Tricks in 2022 (24:50) Jay Gould and the Media (27:29) Why Was Gould So Hated? (29:13) "Don't Fight the Fed" (33:48) The Railroad Business in the 19th Century (37:03) Investor Psychology (41:38) Lessons Learned From Jay Gould (45:01) Why Are There So Many Structurally Unprofitable Companies? (46:48) Gould and Valuation (49:59) Final Lessons From Gould's Legacy (52:46) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 03 Oct 2022 13:00:00 -0000

Liquidity Spiral In The Bond Market Is Causing "Tremendous Stress" | Jim Bianco


Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research LLC, joins Jack Farley to explain how the meltdown in the British bond (gilt) market, which occurred on Wednesday, September 28th, is exposing serious cracks in the plumbing of the financial system. Bianco argues that the Bank of Englands injection of liquidity was necessary in order to prevent the failure of a major institution. Bianco tells Farley that the Federal Reserve is not close to pivoting to a looser policy because the labor market remains strong. Bianco breaks down key bond market concepts, such as convexity and duration, explains why we are likely already in a recession, and argues that the work-from-home trend is here to stay. Filmed on Thursday, September 29th. -- Follow Jim Bianco Follow Jack Farley Follow Forward Guidance Follow Blockworks Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at:https://bit.ly/3M1qNIU -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Chaos In the U.K. Government Bond ("Gilt") Market (08:53) What's Next To Break? (15:41) What Can Bring Inflation Down (Other Than A Global Recession)? (19:18) The Stress On Banks Is Tremendous" (33:46) Are Bonds Attractive At These Levels? (36:56) Bianco's Outlook on Stocks (38:47) Im Going To Channel My Inner Zoltan Pozsar Here" (51:05) Why Working From Home Is A Permanent Trend (57:09) Closing Thoughts On The Labor Market and The Fed (1:02:14) Asset Allocation in Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto (1:04:49) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 29 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Oil Will Trade Flat To Down Until Biden Backs Down & China Re-Opens | Rory Johnston


Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ Rory Johnston, investor at Price street and author of Commodity Context, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the price of oil, the commodity at the heart of the turmoil in financial markets and the global economy. Johnston explains why he thinks oil will trade flat to down in the short-term as he notes that Chinas zero-covid policy has sharply curtailed oil demand but that may change in 2023.He argues that the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the U.S. stockpile of emergency oil reserves, has drastically changed the supply dynamics and has likely depressed the price. Johnston also shares with Farley his views on other important drivers of oil market such as the proposed price cap, sanctions on Russian oil, and the response function from U.S. shale oil producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). NOTE: This interview was filmed on September 23rd, a day where the price of oil fell by as much as 7%. -- Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Why Is Oil Crashing? (05:41) Demand Destruction & Recession Risk (12:46) Is The Backwardation In Oil (16:44) Biden's Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (27:21) Price Cap On Russian Oil (36:18) The Gasoline Crisis (39:56) Coal (42:53) Volatility and Illiquidity In Oil Markets (46:57) European Electricity Prices (50:17) Natural Gas Unit Economics (54:02) The Mechanics Of A Price Cap on Russian Oil (1:02:18) U.S. Shale (1:11:49) Is Oil Going To Go Up? (1:14:21) How Would A Recession Impact The Price Of Oil? (1:16:35) About Commodity Context (1:18:43) Closing Thoughts On Twitter Sentiment (1:20:57) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 26 Sep 2022 12:33:00 -0000

What Will Break First? | Joseph Wang & Peter Crane


With the Fed hiking interest rates rapidly in order to fight inflation, cash is finally earning its highest yield since before the Great Financial Crisis. Peter Crane, President of Crane Data, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, join Jack to discuss how the growing attractiveness of cash might cause markets to break as investors pull capital out of risk assets and deploy it in cash and money market funds, which harvest yields on cash by investing them in ultra-short duration loans to extremely safe counterparties, primarily the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on September 22, 2022. -- Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit:https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Follow Peter Crane on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/cranedata Follow Joseph Wang on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:10) Reflecting On the Fed's September FOMC Meeting (04:48) What Is A Money Market Fund? (14:37) What Will Break? (18:41) Maturity & Composition (25:31) Why Are There No Inflows Into Money Market Funds? (27:37) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (31:316) Who Invests In Money Market Funds? (39:19) Offshore Dollar Money Market Funds (43:03) New SEC Regulation on Money Market Funds ("Swing Pricing") (51:45) What Part of The Financial System Will Crack First? (1:05:12) How Bad Is Treasury Liquidity? (1:06:33) Pete Crane on Stablecoins (1:10:55) Joseph Wang On Sales of Mortgage-Backed Securities (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 22 Sep 2022 13:01:43 -0000

"I'm Surprised The Market's Not Down More" | Aswath Damodaran


When trying to find a culprit for the bear market in stocks this year, investors often point to the surging yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. But thats only part of the story. Today Jack is lucky to speak to Dr. Aswath Damodaran, professor of valuation and corporate finance at NYU Stern School of Business, who is a pioneer in the field of valuation. Damodaran explains how the intrinsic value of a stocks is its future cash flows discounted back to the present with a discount rate, which is the sum of a risk-free rate on a Treasury bond and an equity risk premium. Damodaran notes that, in addition to risk-free rates surging higher, equity risk premia have expanded significantly. Damodaran also shares his views on inflation, the Federal Reserve, as well as currencies and crypto. Farley aFilmed on September 9, 2022. Data sets can be found on Aswath Damodarans website: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ Lectures and presentations can be found on Aswath Damodarans YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation -- Follow Aswath Damodaran on Twitter https://twitter.com/AswathDamodaran Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The "Sleep Test" (03:40) Inflation's Impact on Equity Valuations (19:43) Equity Duration (40:41) Cost of Capital for Individual Companies (44:17) Commodity & Energy Stocks (52:06) How Liquidity Increases Asset Values (59:53) Crypto, Currencies, and Commodities: Why They Are Impossible To Truly Value (1:11:29) Closing Thoughts On Overconfidence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 20 Sep 2022 19:16:34 -0000

The Sovereign Debt Crisis Is Coming | Brent Johnson


Why has the U.S. dollar exploded higher this year against other currencies, and what does its rise mean for the global economy?Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and outspoken dollar bull, joins Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast, to share his thoughts on what the strength of the greenback indicates about inflation, central banks, and growth rates. Johnson argues that a sovereign debt crisis for China and other emerging markets is within the cards. Filmed on September 14, 2022, on the second day of the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit. Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on Twitter https://twitter.com/BlockworksDAS
Mon, 19 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Bear Market Has Only Just Begun | Ted Oakley


Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack Farley to argue that asset prices remain well above their fair value, and that the drawdowns investors have seen in 2022 are likely not over. Oakley shares his outlook on inflation, the business cycle, and the Federal Reserve, and he outlines where he is finding value and safety for his investors in this turbulent macro environment. Filmed on September 6, 2022. -- Follow Oxbow Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/Oxbow_Advisors Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:38) Why Stocks Remain Overvalued (11:04) Why A Deep Recession Is Imminent (16:02) Energy (20:52) Fixed Income (28:14) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation and Interest Rates (32:32) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (41:44) Contrarian View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 15 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian


Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Jack to argue that European energy inflation will not, as many believe, cause an economic crisis. Instead, Dillian contends that, no matter the long-term consequences, governments will find solutions to the energy shortage such as price caps on commodity prices, which Dillian says will crush speculators. Dillian shares his framework for evaluating investor sentiment in order to discern the mood of the market and identify ideal turning points to take on contrarian positions. Filmed on September 8, 2022. -- Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Measuring Sentiment via Twitter (04:08) Why Jared Thinks Europe Can Handle Its Energy Situation (06:08) "Speculators Will Get Crushed" (08:08) The Low Cost Basis Fallacy (14:43) Natural Gas (16:30) Price Caps In Energy May Be Coming (21:07) Why Jared Was Bullish on Oil in early 2021 (25:30) The Bubble In Macro Doom (27:12) Central Banks Can't Print Oil (31:43) Outlook on Housing & Stocks (36:22) Jared Dillian As Head Of The Federal Reserve (40:06) "Why Are You Not More Bearish?" (48:25) The Dollar (56:22) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation (58:40) Jared's Book & Concert -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 13 Sep 2022 18:00:00 -0000

False Dawn: Why The Rally Is Over | Andy Constan & Joseph Wang


Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Today Jack welcomes Andy Constan, macro investor and publisher of The Damped Spring Report, and Joseph Wang, former senior Fed trader and author of Fedguy.com, to discuss how the Feds reduction of its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting market liquidity and future returns. Constan argues that favorable market conditions that allowed risk assets to rise during the summer are no longer present, and that this false dawn is over. Wang argues that QT will drain the banking system of reserves and the Fed may have to plug leaks in the financial plumbing. Filmed on September 7, 2022. -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Markets (10:38) Equity & Bond Market Flows Over The Past Few Months (15:46) Volatility (Vol) Targeting (24:18) Equity Risk Premium Model (32:13) The "False Dawn" In Asset Prices (38:28) Joseph Wang on Treasury Issuance (43:58) Joseph on "The Reserve Gap" (53:50) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:11) Andy Constan's Outlook on Bonds (1:02:02) How Far Can The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Sep 2022 10:58:00 -0000

The Rise of "Legal Fraud" | Bethany McLean


Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack interviews prolific author and journalist, Bethany McLean. McLean's known most prominently for her 2003 book, The Smartest Guys in The Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron. With her coverage of financial scandals in the early 2000s, no one is better equipped for today's discussion about fraud, loopholes, and more. McLean interprets the seismic disruptions in the housing and energy market through her prior work on mortgage-securitizing giant Fannie Mae and on the American shale revolution. McLean argues that financial crimes always require the complicity of the victim, and contends that anyone who thinks they can predict the energy markets or inflation is sorely mistaken. -- Follow Bethany McLean on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bethanymac12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Was The Enron Fraud Allowed To Happen? (12:18) The Rise of Legal Fraud (19:07) Dotcom Bubble 2.0 and Private Equity (23:53) The Housing, Mortgage, and Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Markets (31:55) Inflation And The (Reverse) Wealth Effect (34:34) The Energy Crisis (46:00) Green Energy (48:20) McLean's New Book (49:26) Fictitious Billionaires And Other Hangovers From The 2020 Money Printing Bonanza -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 08 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Eurodollar Market Is Dead, Says Godfather of Financial Derivatives | Dr. Richard Sandor


Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Every day, trillions of dollars worth of interest rate derivatives are traded back and forth. And yet despite its stunning size today, 50 years ago the interest rate derivative complex did not exist at all. Today Jack interviews Dr. Richard Sandor, chairman and CEO of the American Financial Exchange (AFX), who is known as the father of financial futures because he created the worlds first interest rate and bond futures in the 1970s. Sandor explains how the relentless inflation of the 1970s caused wild swings in interest rates that jeopardized financial stability, and how the financial futures he created helped tame (or at the very least, transfer) these risks. Sandor argues that the London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR) to which many interest rate futures (often called eurodollar futures) are still pegged has been discredited by the schemes of banks to manipulate it (see link below on LIBOR scandal). Sandor shares his vision for the forthcoming LIBOR replacement in June 2023, and tells Jack about his companys benchmark, AMERIBOR. -- Article on LIBOR scandal: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor-scandal.asp More info on Dr. Richard Sandor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_L._Sandor Follow Dr. Richard Sandor on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drrichardsandor Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Creating The World's First Interest Rate Future (18:16) Creating A Two-Sided Market (24:10) Paul Volcker's Role In Creating Interest Rate Volatility (27:00) Eurodollars: "LIBOR Is Dead, The Emperor Has No Clothes" (35:21) Replacements for LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) (47:44) Carbon Futures -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 05 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Plumbing Of Global Finance Is Clogged | Joseph Wang & Daniel Neilson


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- With the summer rally in risk assets two weeks in the rear view mirror, Jack welcomes two experts on the plumbing of the monetary system, former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Daniel Neilson, economist and author of Minsky and writer of the Soon Parted newsletter. Neilson and Wang exchange views on just how high the Federal Reserve will hike rates in order to tame inflation, with Wang calling Fed chair Powells speech at Jackson Hole a great performance. Neilson shares insights on the changing size and composition of the European Central Banks balance sheet, and then he proceeds to teach Jack about what the relative levels of various repo rates indicates about the supply and demand for Treasury collateral. Lastly, Neilson shares his views on government crackdown of crypto mixer Tornado Cash. Daniel H. Neilson is the principal of Neilson Macro Advisors and author of Minsky from Polity Books, and his newsletter is called Soon Parted. Filmed on August 31, 2022. -- Link to Daniel Neilsons piece on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB): https://www.soonparted.co/p/defrag Link to Daniel Neilsons piece on Tornado Cash: https://www.soonparted.co/p/tornado-cash Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Daniel Neilsons writings can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Analysis of Powell's Remarks at Jackson Hole (09:54) Inflation Expectations (17:17) Just How Far Behind The Curve Is The European Central Bank (ECB)? (29:38) Plumbing Of The Repo System (Warning: Very Advanced) (49:37) Tornado Cash -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 01 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Fed Doesnt Have What It Takes To Fight Inflation | Joseph Wang & Mish Shedlock


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit (sale ends Sunday): https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powells remarks at Jackson Hole. Jack welcomes former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Michael Mish Shedlock, economic blogger and investment advisor, to analyze the twin threats of inflation and recession, and the challenges investors and the Federal Reserve face as they try to navigate both. Shedlock argues that the economy is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve will likely overtighten which could kill the stock market. Wang argues that the risk is that the Federal Reserve is too loose, and notes that an excerpt from the July FOMC minutes which Wang saw as cowardly caused Wang to be more open to the view that Powell will cave to dovish political pressure. In his own words, this is the Fed of Arthur Burns.NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powells remarks at Jackson Hole. -- Follow Mish Shedlock on Twitter https://twitter.com/MishGEA Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wangs work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Mish Shedlocks writings can be found here: https://mishtalk.com/ Mishs article on housing: https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-crash-accelerates-sales-down-12-6-percent-in-july July FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220727.pdf -- (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Are We In A Recession Already? (05:48) Housing (15:00) Stagflation (19:58)The Stock Market (21:12) The Wang Pivot (29:27) The Commercial Banking System (35:16) Asset Allocation (36:51) Gold (39:53) The Pension Crisis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 29 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Convertible Bonds: The Everything Asset Class | Paul Latronica


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by Paul Latronica to discuss convertible bonds as an asset class, and more. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:08) What Are Convertible Bonds? (05:00) An Example (19:56) Correlation Between Convertible Bonds and Equity (33:13) Current Valuations (50:44) Finding Alpha In Convertible Bonds (55:20) Current Outlook (1:01:51) Avoiding Pitfalls (1:05:24) Greatest Risk For Convertible Bonds (1:09:33) The Federal Reserve (1:17:32) Most Frequent Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 25 Aug 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Global Shipping Crisis Is Not Over | Sal Mercogliano


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and shipping expert, who discusses the current global shipping crisis and its trajectory for the future. -- Subscribe to Sal Mercogliano's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/WhatisGoingonWithShippingwSalMercogliano Follow Sal Mercogliano on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Shipping As The Ultimate Driver Of Inflation (15:15) Consolidation In The Shipping Industry (22:11) Are There Enough Ships? (Answer: Yes) (23:38) Emission Reduction Goals In Shipping As A Headwind To New Supply (29:11) Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) (33:30) Learning From History (38:28) Recession's Impact on Shipping Rates (44:50) How Profitable Is Shipping Now? (47:11) Non-Owner Operators (52:26) Cruise Lines (1:00:50) Futures On Freight Rates? (1:03:08) Individual Stocks -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 22 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Feds Ticking Time Bomb Is About To Explode | Joseph Wang & Chris Whalen


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In September, the Federal Reserve is set to remove even more liquidity from markets by taking its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program to the next level. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and veteran banker Chris Whalen, join Jack to explain how this additional wave of monetary tightening will send shockwaves through markets, particularly the two assets that comprise the Feds balance sheet: U.S. Treasuries and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Joseph argues that the U.S. Treasury will likely enact a buyback program of its longer-duration securities in order to dampen QTs volatility, and Whalen contends that if the Federal Reserve sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (as opposed to merely letting them mature), armageddon will ensue. Filmed on August 17, 2022. -- Read Joseph Wangs latest piece, The Marginal Buyer: https://fedguy.com/the-marginal-buyer/ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wangs work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Chris Whalens work can be found here: rcwhalen.com -- (00:00) Introduction (01:32) The Effect of Quantitative Tightening (QT) On Commercial Banks (21:00) Vulnerabilities in The Treasury Market (25:15) The Conundrum in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (32:30) The Fed's Banking "Stress Test" (43:43) Swelling Reverse Repo Facility (48:22) The Fed's Giant Mortgage Problem (59:53) How Far Will The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? (1:02:03) Why Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Not Going Down During QT? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 18 Aug 2022 20:00:00 -0000

Why Risk Appetite Is Back | Alfonso Peccatiello, Michael Kantrowitz, Andy Constan & Jack Farley


This is a recording of a Twitter spaces in which Jack Farley exchanges macro views with Alfonso Peccatiello, in a preview to their conversation at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in September 2022, which will feature Mike Green, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Jurrien Timmer. This recording also featured Andy Constan and Michael Kantrowitz. -- Use code MACRO200 to get discounted tickets to the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/?gclid=CjwKCAjwo_KXBhAaEiwA2RZ8hIgyUQTvJmP-g0qAclP5WXFdpLdZSLkarlMTWE9_Po341_j_x5FBBBoCojkQAvD_BwE -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 18 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Liquidity Has Dried Up, Says $100 Billion Investor | Jeffrey Sherman


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Jeffrey Sherman, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, joins Jack to discuss how fixed income markets are handling a slowing economy and the Federals Reserves withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Sherman breaks down how bond values over 2022 have dropped as credit spreads have widened and interest rates have risen. Sherman shares his outlook on the corporate bonds, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Sherman is circumspect after a strong two-month rally but thinks at this stage there is value to be found in agency & non-agency MBS as well as long-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on August 10, 2022. -- Follow The Sherman Show on Twitter https://twitter.com/ShermanShowPod Follow DoubleLine Capital on Twitter https://twitter.com/DLineCap Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:02) Are We In A Recession? (14:01 )The Inverted Yield Curve (22:25) Liquidity (33:09) The "End" Of Forward Guidance (41:17) Outlook on Long-Term Treasury Yields (46:55) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 15 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Fed Is Not In Control Of The Eurodollar System | Hugh Hendry


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Hugh Hendry, macro investor and former chief investment officer of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Jack Farley to make the case that central banks are not in control of the global monetary order. Hendry argues that an inverted yield curve is showing that the Federal Reserve is making a severe policy error. He insists that the rises in consumer prices is not inflation as he defines it because they are not due to the extending of credit by commercial banks. Hendry passionately exhorts the Chinese ruling class to empower the Chinese consumer and allow the Chinese Yuan (RenMinBi) to strengthen to what Hendry thinks is its true market value. Hendry tells Farley he expects commodity prices to remain high due to bad energy policy and he thinks that portfolio managers who are fueling the recent rally in risk assets are making a mistake. Filmed on August 4th, 2022. -- Follow Hugh Hendry on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (09:56) Why Rising Consumer Prices Is Not Inflation (11:06) The Energy Crisis (19:13) Paul Volcker (21:56) China and the Global "Glut of Saving" (28:09) The Eurodollar System (34:08) Is The Fed Effective (39:31) Did the Fed save the world in 2020 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 11 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Real GDP Lending on Blockchain Could Be A Gamechanger | Bill Wolf


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/si Bill Wolf, Chief Investment Officer at TrustToken/TrustLabs joins Jack Farley to talk about all things blockchain: his journey into this new form of currency, real GDP loans, and stablecoins. Bill and Jack talk about TrustToken and the services its business offers in the trading and lending space. What red flags does TrustToken find to help other firms who are looking to invest or take out loans? While struggling lenders in the CeFi space had no choice but to declare bankruptcy, Bill tells Jack that his company TrustToken has never had a single default on its platform. Watch to find out how his company avoided risks that have taken many other companies out. Filmed the afternoon of August 2, 2022. Be on the lookout for The Investors Guide to TrueFi Capital Markets, coming out soon on Blockworks.co. -- Follow TrustToken on Twitter https://twitter.com/TrustToken Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Bill's Journey into Blockchain (07:58) Real GDP Loans on Blockchain (17:05) Stablecoins (23:26) Tether (26:08) TrustToken's Structure (38:05) Lending Terms (47:34) Interest Rate Risks (49:13) Fee Structure (53:15) Definition Of A Credit Loss (57:25) Lender Protections (59:45) Correlation Risk (1:08:47) "We're All Going To Pay For The Sins of Others" (1:10:24) The Future Of Blockchain Lending (1:13:57) The Fed -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 09 Aug 2022 13:00:00 -0000

Real Estate Market Will Stay "Savagely Unhealthy" For A Long Time | Logan Mohtashami


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/sign-up -- Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire joins Jack Farley to talk all things housing: how has the housing market changed since 2019 and what will happen to homes as we approach a recession? Logan and Jack talk about inventory and rates in the housing market, as well as the challenges homebuyers may have entering this space. Does Logan think we will be able to get out this unhealthy real estate market soon? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the afternoon of August 1, 2022. -- Follow Logan Motashimi on Twitter https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashami Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) The Current Health of the Real Estate Market (12:37) Inventory (16:30) Building Homes in the Early 2000's (22:06) Rates (31:51) Signs of a Recession (48:44) Challenges in the Housing Market (55:38) The State of Housing (1:04:16) Effects of a Housing Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 04 Aug 2022 20:30:00 -0000

Pelosis Visit To Taiwan Has Angered China | Jacob Shapiro


Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Jack Farley for an impromptu bonus episode to cover how tensions in the South Pacific are rapidly ratcheting up. Shapiro explains the potential economic and geopolitical consequences of ongoing conflict between China and Taiwan, and he and Jack also dive deep into the Chinese real estate crisis. Filmed on August 4, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Thu, 04 Aug 2022 12:02:00 -0000

Collapsing Liquidity Has Put The Commodity Supercycle on Hold | Tian Yang


Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In the summer of 2020, there was no greater proponent of the commodity supercycle thesis - the idea that commodity prices would appreciate for many years in a secular fashion - than Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception. Since then, commodity prices - copper, oil, natural gas, you name it - have skyrocketed. Yet Yang now argues that the commodity supercycle is in intermission because economic growth is slowing rapidly and liquidity is collapsing as central banks rapidly tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation. Yang argues that long-term bonds (duration) will likely perform well in this environment. Yang also shares his view on the Fed, inflation, volatility, and the dollar. Filmed on August 1, 2022. -- Follow Tian Yang on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (05:45) Liquidity Is Collapsing (10:04) How Quickly Will Inflation Fall? (21:38) Is The Fed Put Gone? (26:48) Recessions in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. (31:14) Are Chinese Stocks A Buy? (37:02) European Stocks (38:50) Is The Dollar Rally Over? (45:22) 1984 Historical Analogue (51:40) Term Premium, Explained (57:30) Confidence Levels About Future Inflation (1:02:08) Potential Hedges (1:07:44) Most Common Investor Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 01 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Summer Meltdown In Stocks Unlikely, Says Volatility Expert Noel Smith


Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noels prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting). Link to Noels first video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions (07:09) Forward Volatility (10:53) New Outlooks (19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade (22:00) Navigating High Environments (27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio (33:15) The Nature Of Money (37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility (44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors (49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed (54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market (57:05) Short Squeezes (1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies (1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 28 Jul 2022 12:04:00 -0000

The Most Misunderstood Asset Class Of All Time | Louis Camhi


On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Louis Camhi in this special episode all about SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which are basically empty shell companies that go public in order to buy another company. Recently, the performance of SPACs has been in the red because they've become a vehicle for speculation. But Louis argues that if you redeem the SPACs and get the money back, it's basically like a bond, pointing out the similarities and demystifying this often misunderstood asset class. You won't want to miss this! Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (12:43) What is a PIPE? (Private Investment Equity) (15:10) What Is A SPAC Sponsor? (28:34) Current Opportunity Set Within SPACs (33:00) "Warrants Are The Truth" (35:26) Shorting SPACs (48:52) The Donlad Trump SPAC (DWAC) (50:05) More Aggressive SPAC Strategies (53:40) SPAC Arbitrage and Buy Writes (56:10) Characteristics of SPAC Holders (1:07:12) Where Is The Money Coming From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 27 Jul 2022 13:53:00 -0000

There Are No Doves Left At The Federal Reserve | Nick Timiraos


Ahead of tomorrows FOMC meeting, Nick Timiraos joins Jack Farley to talk about the economy and the Federal Reserve; how has it tightened financial conditions and what are they doing to combat the period of inflation we are currently facing? Timiraos breaks down the concept of Forward Guidance, and explains how to think about forthcoming rate hikes as well as the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT). Timiraos is the Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage. He focuses on the economy and The Federal Reserve. Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 25 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren


Nicholas Glinsman, CEO & CIO at EvoCapital LLC and Harald Malmgren, owner of Malmgren Global LLC, join Jack Farley to discuss the slowing economy: the causes, factors and leaders behind the market. Do leaders like Powell want a recession? Malmgren seems to believe so even though they wouldn't admit to it. Entering a deep recession before midterm elections can be critical in helping kill inflation. -- Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:01) A Slowing Economy (06:13) Why Is The Economy Slowing So Rapidly? (10:38) Powell, Yellen, and Biden (15:20) How High Will The Fed Hike? (19:39) Liquidity and Volatility (28:37) Reasons for Deglobalization (36:05) The Crypto World (37:59) Harald's View on Long Term Commodities (42:18) China (48:36) Centralization in Economic Growth (51:59)China Is Running Out of Dollars (57:48) The Dollar Milkshake (1:08:05) President Biden's Legacy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 21 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Why Are Commodities Crashing? | Tracy Shuchart


Tracy Shuchart, Partner and Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Jack Farley to talk about all things oil: how different parts of the world are affected by price spikes, supply and demand and other commodities. Why has the price of oil dropped? Looking at detailed charts, Shuchart goes over the oil market in countries such as Russia. -- Follow Tracy Shuchart on Twitter https://twitter.com/chigrl Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Looking at Extreme Oil Corrections (04:25) Current State of the European Energy Markets (06:00) Will Russia Turn Off Europe's Gas? (11:36) Economic Slowdown Playing a Role in Destroying Demand (14:09) Structural Supply Deficit (16:25) Why Is the Price of Oil Collapsing (23:00) Why are Corporations Making so Much Money? (24:30) Comparing Profit Margins (26:45) Tracy's View on Oil Equities and Sensitive Commodities (31:40) The Shorter Term (33:22) Commodities (35:47) Market Currencies in the Eye of the Storm (37:34) Thoughts on Natural Gas, Oil, and Other Disallates (39:30) Coal (41:03) Hedging Issues (43:00) Overrated Equities Within Commodities (48:35) Solar and Wind Stocks (49:43) Stocks Affected by Inflation (53:50) Recessions in the US and Europe -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 18 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Making Informed Decisions as an Individual Investor | Kyrill Asatur


Kyrill Asatur, Co-Founder and CEO at Centerfin, joins Jack Farley to talk about stocks, macro and the .com bubble. Asatur explains how important the services Centerfin offers because they have exclusive access to funds that retail investors normally dont have. What are some of the common behaviorial mistakes investors make? Working with institutional investors for almost 20 years, Asatur says individuals are prone to the same behaviors as retail investors. -- Follow Kyrill Asatur on Twitter https://twitter.com/wallsthobbes Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Macro at Centerfin (03:04) Decisions of an Individual Investor (08:55) Kyrill's View on Macro and the Fed (18:00) Stocks and the Dot Com Bubble (22:41) Centerfin's Accessibility to Funds (30:30) Distressed Bonds (32:41) Thinking About Size (38:45) Private Equity and Venture Capital (41:55) Common Behaviorial Mistakes Investors Make (44:46) What's Happening at Centerfin? (47:21) Kyrill's View on Crypto (53:36) Macro Hedge Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 14 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

No Clear Sign Of Recession Yet, Says Nick Reece


Nick Reece, Vice President of Research at Merk Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the business cycle. He goes through a checklist of topics to dive deeper into including inflation, unemployment rates, mortgage rates and more. Are we currently facing a recession? According to data that the Business Cycle Dating Committee uses, Reece seems to not believe so. But thats not to say that the US will not go through another recession at some point. Reece explains once job reports come out, we can determine economic projections. Filmed on July 7, 2022. -- Follow Nick Reece on Twitter https://twitter.com/nicholastreece Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Nick's Outlook of the Business Cycle (11:13) Getting the Federal Reserve In Trouble (18:18) Expectations on Gas and Inflation (21:28) Unemployment and Inflation in the Cycle (28:54) Bit.com Ad (29:25) Recession on a Global Scale (32:10) PMIs (37:35) The Fed's Attempt to Combat Inflation (45:20) Where Priorities are Placed at the Federal Reserve (46:15) Projections for the Business Cycle (49:17) Asset Allocation (58:15) Looking at the Price to Earnings Ratio (1:00:45) Looking at Liquidity (1:04:58) Are We In A Recession? (1:09:58) Investments Nick Is Excited About -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 11 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Will A Recession End The Commodity Bull Market? | Rick Rule


Link to Rick Rules Symposium on Natural Resource Investing:https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/?affl=BlockWorks Rick Rule, veteran natural resource investor and former CEO of Sprott Inc., an investment firm with over 20 Billion in assets under management, joins Jack to share his current outlook on the commodity complex as well as several lessons he has learned over the course of his career. Lesson #1: dont overstay your welcome. When the price of a stock is assuming a price for the commodity it produces that is higher than you think is sustainable, it might be time to ring the register. Does the recent jittery price action mean a recession is in the cards? Perhaps so. But Rule still believes that underinvestment in production will make a durable commodity bull market very likely. Rule explains his outlook on natural gas, oil, copper, iron, and Uranium, and shares his opinion on several natural resource stocks from all around the globe. Filmed on July 5, 2022. -- Follow Rick Rule on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/RealRickRule Follow Jack on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:29) Commodity Thesis (04:20) Globally Synchronized Recession (10:15) What Matters More - Supply Or Demand? (14:52) Oil (26:23) The Energy Crisis In Europe (35:20) Natural Resource Symposium (39:44) Greatest Lessons Learned (48:53) Uranium (55:00) Natural Gas (57:07) Specific Stocks (1:01:50) Canadian Oil Stocks (1:04:58) Copper and Iron (1:07:32) Hedging (1:13:10) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 07 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski


Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as the silent depression. Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around. -- Follow Emil Kalinowski on Twitter https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The World's Third Depression (14:25) Recession Trends (16:08) Reasons For Current State of Depression (24:25) Banker Greed (30:28) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Speculation During A Depression (34:31) Inflation (44:23) The Euro Dollar System (51:20) Lending With the Euro Dollar System (53:29) Federal Reserve's Role in the Economy (1:06:19) Emil's Predictions for the Next 6 Months -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 04 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene


On today's episode of "Forward Guidance", Jack Farley is joined by Victoria Greene the Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth. After a confusing year for many investors, Victoria joins the show to asses current market conditions. Reflecting on the past 10 years of stock market performance, Victoria describes why now is not a "buy the dip" scenario. After seeing exuberance in certain equities, Victoria explains why she is more interested in value equities as we undergo Fed tightening, recession risk and market liquidity issues. To hear Victoria's thoughts, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Victoria Greene on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/victoria-greene-cfa-b51521119/ Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ =- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) What is G Squared Private Wealth (07:20) Shifting From Growth to Value In 2021 (11:42) Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Scenario (17:44) Current Market Liquidity (28:02) More Pain To Come For Unprofitable Technology Companies (33:13) VC, Private Equity & SPACs (40:50) Risk of Recession (46:58) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stferle and Mark Valek


Ronald Stferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (the wolf) and a striking economic downturn (the bear) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world. Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly. -- Follow Mark Valek on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkValek Follow Ronnie Stoeferle on Twitter https://twitter.com/RonStoeferle Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: 2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Background (06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble (26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time (40:45) Bit.com (41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook (54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook (1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot? (1:14:00) Counterparty Risk -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 27 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

In 6 to 12 Months, Were Going To Have A Big Problem | Eric Basmajian & Joseph Wang


Is a recession imminent? What will the impact be on asset prices - and to what degree would it cause the Federal Reserve to stop tightening monetary policy? Today Jack welcomes Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, to answer these very important questions. -- Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Josephs writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:00) Economic Growth Is Stalling (05:00) What Is A Recession? (07:22) The Fed's "Unconditional" Commitment To Fight Inflation (09:20) Odds Of A Soft Landing (17:36) Timeline of a Recession (24:28) Fall Of The Commodity Complex (32:13) Demographics and Inflation (41:45) Bank Lending's Role In Inflation (53:45) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard


In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now. Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun. -- Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections (19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect (24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating (29:20) Looking at Economic Trends (35:02) Bit.com Ad (35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution (40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs (42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies (46:50) Zombie Companies (48:45) The Big Tech Companies (53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year (59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve (1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors (1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries (1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades (1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ (1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market (1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 20 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Trading Volatility in Volatile Markets | Benn Eifert


In this episode of Forward Guidance Benn Eifert, Founder & CIO of QVR Advisors joins the show for a deep dive discussion on all things volatility. As markets are all down year to date, many investors have been surprised with the orderly selling and lack of increase in the VIX. Luckily we have Benn on the show to share the role of put options in this market, wether or not macro matters for volatility traders and volatility at both the single stock and index level. We also discussed the past two years of stimulus induced retail options trading, how market structure has evolved, the best hedges for a slowly falling market and when we could expect a market bottom. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Benn Eifert on Twitter https://twitter.com/bennpeifert Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background (05:10) The Rise (And Fall?) Of Retails Options Traders (08:50) Put Options' Role In This Year's Viscous Sell-Off (13:57) The VIX (19:29) The Pricing of Tail Risk (24:32) Best Hedges For A Slowly Falling Market (28:00) Single-Stock Volatility (33:34) How Responsive Are Options Market Makers? (39:58) Credit and Treasury Volatility (48:11) Options Expiry ("OpEx") (55:35) Common Options Mistakes (1:01:00) The Macro (1:05:50) Does The VIX Have To Spike In Order For Stocks To Bottom? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 18:30:00 -0000

Market Crash Unlikely Until July, Says Volatility Veteran | Noel Smith


Noel Smith, chief investment officer and head of options trading at Convex Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance for a special time-sensitive episode to share an observation from the options markets that he thinks could exert some buying pressure over the next two weeks. Smith notes that, due to a large asset manager putting on a collar a while back, options market makers are long lots of gamma at the 3620 level on the S&P 500, and thus will be forced buyers on the way down as they strive to remain delta neutral. This dynamic will only become stronger until the very end of June, and the fireworks in the S&P 500 may not start until July. Not investment advice. Filmed on June 16, 2022. -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 17:45:00 -0000

Cash Is King During Fed's Hawkish Warpath, Says Former $20 Billion Fund Manager


Alfonso Alf Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and former $20 Billion fund manager, joins Jack Farley to break down yesterdays action-packed Fed meeting, in which Fed Chair Jay Powell laid out the Feds revised framework for moderating the rampant inflation that has beset the U.S. economy. Alf tells Jack why the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed aims for requires a further fall in risk assets, and therefore he expects that cash will perform well. Filmed the morning of June 16, 2022. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Alfonso Peccatiellos writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ His most recent piece that he and Jack discuss can found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop?s=r#details -- The Feds June statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220615a1.pdf The Feds Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) FOMC Overview (06:30) Powell - Good Cop or Bad Cop? (09:40) Inflation Expectations and Terminal Rate (12:25)Leverage and VaR Shock (17:08) Can The Fed Actually Control Inflation? (23:13) The Impact Of Higher Rates On Portfolio Allocation (29:37) What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio? (41:43) The Fed's Real Yield Paradigm Shift -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Soft Landing Very Unlikely As Global Inflation Crisis Rages On | Darius Dale & Juliette Declercq


On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by two phenoms of macro analysis: Juliette Declercq of JDI Research and Darius Dale of 42Macro. The two explore the likelihood of the Feds much-desired soft landing, a scenario in which inflation moderates without a severe hit to economic growth or asset prices. Both Declercq and Dale argue that a soft landing is unlikely and that a fall in inflation will likely require not only a steep selloff in stocks but also a nosedive in economic growth that could amount to a recession. The trio also discuss the natural rate of interest (R*), financial repression, and demand destruction. -- Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42macroDDale Follow Juliette Declercq on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulietteJDI Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter ____ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) The Most Confusing Times In Macro? (04:30) How Far Can The Fed Go In Tightening Monetary Policy? (10:35) Odds Of A Soft Landing (21:02) What Will It Take To Break Inflation? (26:20) Bit.com Ad (26:52) The End Of Free Money (29:54) Europe (34:14) Shorting Equities (38:00) "The Scariest Chart in Macro" (44:07) Asset Allocation -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 18:30:00 -0000

The Bear Market Is Here, What Next? | Joseph Wang & Alfonso Peccatiello


With stocks, crypto, bonds, gold, and commodities tanking, Jack calls an emergency podcast and asks trusted Forward Guidance regulars, Joseph Wang and Alfonso Peccatiello, to put the ongoing market volatility in the context of runaway inflation and central bank tightening. Filmed live on June 13, 2022. Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Joseph on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe to The Macro Compass: TheMacroCompass.substack.com Joseph's latest piece, "Turbo Tightening," can be found here: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/ Alfs latest piece, The True Reason Why Central Banks Do QE, can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/portfolio-rebalancing-qe?s=r#details Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Liquidity Has Fallen Off A Cliff | Joseph Wang & Michael Howell


In this episode of Forward Guidance, fan favourites Michael Howell and Joseph Wang pair up to discuss the overarching theme of liquidity and the Fed. After sounding the alarm and forecasting a decline in equity markets towards the end of 2021, those predictions are now beginning to manifest in markets. Michael walks listeners through how he tracks market liquidity as a leading indicator for equity prices. Joseph provides an in depth look at the signals driving the Fed in this environment. Both guests share their thoughts on the Powell pivot myth, volatility, signs of stagflation, QT and so much more. This episode is jam packed with insights you can't afford to miss, but to hear them, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Michel Howell on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) What Is Liquidity? (09:10) Declining Refinancing Capacity (13:46) Bagehot's Rule and The Discount Window (24:50) Is This Unprecedented? (28:35) Is Waiting For A Powell Pivot Futile? (30:16) The Fed And The VIX (33:16) Inflation and Recession (36:24) How Much QT Can The Fed Actually Do? (39:20) Gold and Crypto (41:17) The U.S. Dollar's Role (45:17) The People's Bank of China (46:43) How Much Power Does the Fed Actually Have? (49:12) The Commercial Banking System (53:33) Where Are Long-Duration Bond Yields Headed? (1:02:28) Yield Curve Interpretations (1:07:08) Is There A Problem Lurking In Credit? (1:09:03) "Good Liquidity" vs. "Bad Liquidity" (1:12:55) China (1:18:10) Closing Thoughts On The Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Fed Is Burning Money | Harley Bassman


Today Jack is joined by none other than the Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman, who shares why he is wildly bullish on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) even as the Federal Reserve is in the process of reducing its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT). Bassman explains why long-term interest rates have shot up by so much and makes the case that, while he is confident that inflation will continue to run hot, the sell-off in long-duration Treasurys may not continue. Bassman goes on to explain the significance of the spike in interest rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index, his creation, and shares several investment theses on municipal bonds and equity LEAPs. Filmed on Friday, June 3, 2022. -- Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ConvexityMaven Follow Jack Farley on Twitter:https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Referenced In The Show: The Water Is Warm In The MBS Pool: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Convexity-Maven-MBS-Pool.pdf Fire Insurance - Revisited: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Convexity-Maven-Fire-Insurance-Revisited.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Historic Bond Sell-Off (09:48) Credit Vol (17:14) Is There A Powell Put On Credit? (21:56) Is Quantitative Tightening (QT) Money Burning? (25:05) Bit.com Ad (33:49) Yield Curve Inversion (41:26) Outlook on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (44:59) Pre-Payment and Extension Risk (51:42) Will MBS Convexity Humble the Fed? (1:00:08) Bassman's Highest Conviction View (1:03:38) Municipal Bonds (1:04:42) Longer-Dated Calls on Equity Indices -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 06 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Inflation Is Popping The Biggest Asset Bubble Of All Time | Michael Kao


Today Jack welcomes Michael Kao, retired hedged manager and private investor, on Forward Guidance for a wide-ranging conversation on liquidity, energy markets, cryptocurrency, and convertible bond arbitrage. Kao argues that risk assets have benefited from a liquidity lottery of quantitative easing and low rates, and that as a result financial markets are in a huge bubble that reminds him of the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. Kao explains why he is skeptical about the value of digital assets, and he does a deep dive into the capital structure of MicroStrategy ($MSTR). Important disclosure: Kao recently entered a short position in $MSTR. Kao is a veteran investor with a wealth of expertise in options pricing, commodity trading, convertible bond arbitrage, and global macro. He has over three decades of investing experience at Goldman Sachs, Canyon Capital Advisors, as well as Akanthos Capital Management, his own hedge fund. Nothing in this podcast should be considered as investment advice. Filmed on June 2, 2022. -- Follow Michael Kao on Twitter:https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Jack Farley on Twitter:https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter To get in touch with Jack Farley about sponsoring Forward Guidance, emailjack@blockworks.co. -- (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Michael Kao's Background (08:30) The New Dotcom Bubble 2.0 (22:50) The Rho Hedge War Story From 2008 (29:16) Will The Fed Pivot? Can The Fed Pivot? (34:45) MMT (42:05) The Energy Crisis (49:16) The Black Swan For American Oil (59:09) Speculative Bubbles As Inflation Capacitors (1:02:12) How Do You Value Crypto? (1:10:05) Housing Bubble? (1:11:14) Will QT Steepen The Yield Curve? (1:14:38) Digital Assets (1:18:00) How MicroStrategy Funds Its Bitcoin Purchases (1:28:58) "He's Not In Trouble Right Now" -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Fed Hawkishness Is A Charade - If Powell Doesnt Pivot, Prepare For A Depression | Larry McDonald


Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of A Colossal Failure Of Common Sense, thinks that those who take the Federal Reserve at its word are making a serious error. McDonald wastes little time to argue that the Federal Reserves assurances that it will tighten monetary policy (by raising rates and reducing its balance sheet) amount to little more than a sham: a series of promises that it can never keep, because doing so would plunge the United States into a deep recession. McDonald explains that, while he does not expect the S&P 500 to reach a new high for several years, he is anticipating a sharp rally in risk assets as the Federal Reserve tones down its hawkish rhetoric and abandons the most extreme of its measures to moderate inflation. McDonald argues that this supportive liquidity environment will drag the U.S. Dollar down and give an even greater lift to the ongoing bull market in energy as well as other hard assets such as gold. Filmed on May 31, 2022. -- Larry McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/larry_macdonald Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:50) Can The Fed Reduce Its Balance Sheet? (04:36) The Fed's Choice Between Stagflation and a Recession (09:39) How High Can The Fed Get? (19:27) Dot-com Bubble 2.0? (24:23) Outlook on S&P 500 (27:25) Bit.Com (27:55) The Energy Trade (31:44) Have We Reached Full Panic Mode Yet? (34:45) Commercial Real Estate (36:52) Shorting The U.S. Dollar (41:27) Inflation and Deglobalization (45:08) ESG Investing (49:25) Global Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 30 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Energy Stocks Remain Undervalued, Says Worlds Best Performing Hedge Fund Manager | Josh Young


Josh Young is the founder and chief investment officer of Bison Interests, an energy investment fund whose returns since October 2020 are ranked #1 in the HFM database. Young argues that, despite the phenomenal performance of the energy sector over the past 18 months, there are upstream producers that remain extremely undervalued relative to their current cash flows. Young explains why he thinks many of the major oil companies are burning capital and why he prefers smaller producers that are not on the radar of many investors flooding into the space. He shares his views on ESG, divestment, and the idea of a carbon bubble. This conversation is not investment advice. Filmed on May 27, 2022. -- Follow Josh Young on Twitter https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Bison Interests on Twitter https://twitter.com/BisonInterests Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Todays episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (00:10) Background (01:01) Supply Constraints (21:38) Is Energy Investing Just A Bet On The Price Of Oil? (33:04) Risks To The Energy Trade (56:14) Company-Specific Analysis (1:17:14) Is There A Carbon Bubble? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 26 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Europe and China: Already In Recession | Paul Hodges


Paul Hodges returns in a deep discussion on inflation, China, and the Federal Reserve. Paul joins Jack Farley to discuss recession and recession risk in Europe, China, and the U.S., as well as the fate of inflated hyper-growth stocks. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (13:45) Why Is Inflation Bad For Stocks? (21:24) Fate of Hyper-Growth Tech Stocks (23:15) Tesla (27:23) Ben Graham's Valuation Rules (30:03) Bit.com Ad (30:34) Recession In Europe (42:39) Recession Risk in the U.S. (46:10) Housing (49:05) The Federal Reserve (52:14) Chemicals Market Flashing Warning Signals (56:00) Recession in China (1:07:07) Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 25 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Central Banks Are Scrambling To Contain An Inflationary Wage Price Spiral | Nick Glinsman & Joseph Wang


Nick Glinsman, macro hedge fund manager and author at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) and Jack Farley to explore whether the Federal Reserve is at all disturbed by the vicious sell-off in risk assets, or if the carnage in equities and credit is actually in service of its mandate to control stable prices. Glinsman argues that the global economy is on the verge of a wage-price spiral for the first time in four decades, and the central bankers will be in no hurry to reverse course on their hawkish policy. Taking from his extensive experience working at some of the worlds most successful hedge funds, Glinsman warns viewers not to slip on a banana skin as they navigate the macro landscape. Joseph Wangs message to the viewers banking on a Powell Put is even more stark: wake the ____ up. -- Nick Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Nick Glinsman's writings can be found at https://intelligencequarterly.com/. Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/. -- Todays episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Banana Skins In This Market (13:14) The Fall Of The "Transitory" Narrative (23:30) The Wealth Effect in Reverse (30:50) Ad (36:07) Have Central Banks Lost Control? (41:18) The Dollar and Bonds (50:28) Bretton Woods III (59:55) Inflationary Hikes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 24 May 2022 19:30:00 -0000

The Fed's $3 Trillion Problem | Maroon Macro & Joseph Wang


Joseph Wang & Maroon Macro join me for a deep dive into the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's $3 Trillion problem. As t bill issuance dries up, reverse repo's spike & money market funds park their assets elsewhere, how will the Fed's quantitive tightening program and rate hikes effect the plumbing of the global financial system? Luckily I have two monetary plumbing experts to answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Maroon: https://twitter.com/Maroon_Macro Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_@FedGuy12 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 19 May 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Can Gold Withstand the Liquidity Drain? | Sean Fielder


Sean Fielder, chief investment officer at Equinox Partners, joins Jack Farley to discuss his views on gold, mining, inflation, the and Federal Reserves continued tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks, diving into everything from ESG investing to a mine's lifecycle and lifestyle. __ Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Intro (02:26) Emerging Markets And The Dollar (15:32) New Bretton Woods (17:19) How Far Can The Fed Go? (19:07) Is Gold An Inflation Hedge? (26:36) Bit.com Ad (27:06) Energy, Oil & Gas (39:44) ESG Investing (Environmental, Societal, and Governance) (46:08) Junior Gold Miners (53:16) Common Problems That Junior Gold Mining Companies Have (55:56) Jurisdictional Risk (1:05:05) Lifecycle Of A Mine (1:06:26) The Future Of Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 16 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Why Fed Chair Powell is NOT Coming To Rescue Stocks | Alfonso Peccatiello


On today's episode of "Forward Guidance," Jack Farley is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass newsletter and host of The Macro Trading Floor podcast on the Blockworks network. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. Alfonso joins Jack to share his outlook on the Feds efforts to tighten financial conditions in the hope of reining in inflation. Will these efforts crush the stock market? Will the Fed get its much-desired soft landing? Are there emerging signs of stress in credit spreads? In Alfonso's mind, one thing is for sure, Powell will NOT pivot this time. Monetary policy will be tightened until inflation is under control, Alfonso argues, and those investors relying on a Powell Pivot will be left holding the bag. Alfonsos writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/, here are some of the specific pieces he and Jack referenced: What If?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/what-if?s=r A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/serious-ish-about-inflation?s=r Alfonso Peccatiello on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Tightening Financial Conditions (08:17) The Macro Compass Quadrant Model (12:08) Stock Market Time Horizons (15:44) Shorting The S&P 500 (19:17) BCB Ad (20:06) Surging High Yield Bonds in Europe (22:53) Credit Spreads (29:43) Powell Is NOT Going to Pivot (35:42) Will the Fed Get Their Soft Landing? (38:58) When Will Bonds Become a Buy? (47:08) Changing Your Minds in Markets -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 12 May 2022 13:00:00 -0000

The Everything Risk Is Here | Ed Harrison


Ed Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of The Everything Risk, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserves ongoing tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks. Harrison shares his outlook on China, commodities, the FAANG stocks, and why he sees the makings for a new era for markets. __ Follow Ed Harrison on Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardnh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (02:36) Is The Era of East Money Over? (04:56) Comparisons to the 2000s Tech Album (13:30) Valuing Companies With Network Effects (16:23) Markets Reaction To Monetary Policy (18:46) ARKK (22:25) Fed Rate Hikes & Credit Markets (27:26) Where Is The Fed Put? (31:53) Bit.com Ad (32:25) A Shift From Deflation to Inflation? (37:31) FANTAMAN Stocks (40:28) How China is Exporting Stagflation (41:55) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine & The Effect On Energy Markets (46:19) Will High Energy Prices Cause Demand Destruction? (50:05) 5YR Breakeven Inflation (51:40) Inflation in Europe (52:58) The Global Dollar Wrecking Ball (56:06) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 09 May 2022 15:00:00 -0000

Its Game Over For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynchs Protg


George Noble has seen many bubbles in his storied career: the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the Dotcom Bubble of 2000, and the Japanese mega-bubble which he rode on the way up and down. But no prior period of speculation compares to what Noble sees now: a mega bubble of epic proportions, fueled primarily by a wave of central bank liquidity that has taken non-profitable technology stocks to previously unimaginable heights. Noble argues that inflation has been popping this bubble and that equities are toast and that goldilocks is dead. Noble sees overvaluation problems not only in the ARKK stocks but also darlings of the S&P 500 such as Amazon, Apple, and Netflix. As a warning to viewers, Noble shares words from the legendary investor Peter Lynch (his mentor): know what you own. George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Background (06:55) The Everything Bubble (13:36) The Powell Pivot (20:58) ARKK (25:43) BCB Ad (26:32) Inflation Is Popping The Bubble In Long-Duration Assets (39:50) Are Bonds A Hedge For Stock Sell-offs? (Answer: No) (41:12) How Low Can Stocks Go? (43:22) Netflix and Amazon (50:10) "Peter Lynch Would Not Be Buying Apple Right Now" (52:50) Energy (59:30) Crypto (1:02:50) Noble's Twitter Spaces -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 May 2022 13:00:00 -0000

The Food & Energy Crisis Has Only Just Begun | Doomberg


On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by the mysterious green chicken known only as Doomberg, a research publication on energy, food, and fertilizer. Doomberg argues that the ongoing surge in oil and natural gas prices is due to key policy errors that, if they continue, will ensure that price shock will turn into a full-blown energy and food crisis that will push many countries to the brink of recession, particularly Europe and frontier market nations. Doomberg breaks down the frightening dependence of Europe on Russian energy and explains how, in the case of Germany, a rejection of nuclear power by so-called environmentalists led to its embrace of coal. -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Doomberg https://doomberg.substack.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI (edited) -- (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Start of Doomberg (05:27) Core Energy Thesis (12:00) How Germany's Rejection of Nuclear Led To Its Embrace Of Coal (14:32) The Weaponization of Russia's Natural Gas (19:40) Europe's Dependence on Russian Energy (34:00) Bit.com Ad (34:30) Nuclear Power (39:20) Farmers On The Brink (47:30) Oil (54:57) Renewables (01:08:36) Questions From Audience -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Fed Chair Powell Says Goodbye To Era Of Easy Money | Jim Bianco & Joseph Wang


Follow Jim Bianco https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Opening Thoughts (08:05) Powell's "Codewords" (15:10) The Balance Sheet: Stock vs. Flow (22:10) Is The Fed No Longer Credible? (27:32) When Is Inflation Going to Peak? (47:15) Worst Bond Market Sell-Off Since George Washington Became President (51:30) Systemic Risks For The Financial Systems (53:00) Are Rate Hikes Good for Commercial Banks? (1:01:04) How Far Can The Fed Go?
Mon, 02 May 2022 20:35:21 -0000

A Dilemma Of The Feds Own Making | Danielle DiMartino Booth & Joseph Wang


Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder and CEO of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley and former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang to share her outlook on this weeks FOMC meeting. Booth argues that the Federal Reserves lateness to fight inflation has caused it to lose a lot more credibility, and makes the case that it risks to lose even more credibility if it fails to recognize that the economy is slowing rapidly. Booth notes that credit spreads are widening rapidly and argues that it will be a credit market blow-up, not an equity market drawdown, that forces the Federal Reserve to change course. Wang and Booth discuss how rising mortgage rates will deter the Fed from shrinking its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and they each give their take on the continued sell-off in Treasury bonds.Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter @DiMartinoBooth Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter athttps://blockworks.co/newsletter
Fri, 29 Apr 2022 20:06:12 -0000

Why The Repo Market Will Need The Feds Cash Yet Again | Scott Skyrm & Joseph Wang


Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income & repo at Curvature Securities, joins former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and host Jack Farley to share his insights from deep within the repo markets. Skyrm explores whether the Feds forthcoming balance sheet runoff will agitate repo markets like last time in September 2019, when repo rates spiked higher. Skyrm (@ScottSkyrm) and Wang (@FedGuy12) weigh important considerations, such as the Feds involvement with the market and what current repo rates indicate about the level of bond shorting. Skyrm tells Farley (@JackFarley96) that the trillions of Treasury collateral that the market will have to absorb over the next year will drain the ~$1.8 Trillion in Feds reverse repo facility, yank repo rates higher, and eventually cause the market to rely once again on the Feds standing repo facility. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
Thu, 28 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Short Everything Trade | Teddy Vallee


Jacks next guest is someone who has timed this cycle better than literally anyone he knows in macro. Since the beginning of the year, the elusive Teddy Vallee has been short almost everything, stocks but in particular U.S. government bonds, which are in the midst of their most vicious sell-off in almost 40 years. But very recently, Teddy has closed his short in government bonds and has actually entered a massive long position in Treausurys. Teddy tells Farley why he expects growth and inflation to slow rapidly as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. A note on the title: up until very recently, Vallee had the everything short (short stocks and bonds) on. But now that he is long bonds, he no longer does. Filmed on Tuesday, April 26. -- Follow Teddy Vallee on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com. Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Teddy's Successful Bond Short in Early 2022 (04:20) Teddy's Successful Equity Short in Early 2022 (05:43) The Economy Is Slowing Rapidly (07:58) The Fed's Key Error (11:05) Chinese Lockdowns Destroying Economic Growth (16:06) Going From Short to Long The Bond Market (23:33) What If The Fed Remains Hawkish (26:14) Bit.com Ad (26:46) Oil & Bretton Woods 3 (28:46) Confidence Levels Of Long Bond Trade (30:12) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Bond Yields (38:35) When Will Powell Pivot? (41:30) Gold (42:25) Crypto If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Mon, 25 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Can Europe's Economy Handle Russian Sanctions? | Frances Coppola


Frances Coppola, Economist, Author & banking expert, joins Forward Guidance to give an update on how the West's new sanctions on Russia are playing out. Coppola explains how key commodities such as Russian natural gas and oil continue to flow to Western countries, and she makes an impassioned case for why a ban on Russian energy is necessary to thwart the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. -- Follow Frances Coppola on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) Overview of Sanctions on Russia (07:08) Oil & Natural Gas (09:30) Wheat (14:20) Demand Destruction and Recession Risk (18:00) When Will We Hit Peak Inflation? (21:20) Central Bank Response Function (27:01) The European Central Bank (ECB) And Inflation (32:02) BCB Ad (35:45) The Dollar's Surge (1:20:36) Breton Woods III
Thu, 21 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Expect a 30% Correction in Stocks, Says Godfather Of Global Liquidity | Michael Howell


Liquidity is a critical concept in markets that many may have heard, but few truly understand. Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the global liquidity flows. He breaks down what liquidity is and he explains to Jack Farley how the tide of liquidity that has lifted asset prices over the past two years is reversing very quickly. Howell argues that, since 95% of central banks are tightening at the same time, the short-term risk/reward for stocks is poor, and he thinks a further 20% correction is ahead for the equity market. Howell explains the complex yield curve dynamics, and explains why the ongoing liquidity collapse might finally make long-term government bonds attractive once again. Filmed on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. A note on the title: Howells expectation of a 30% in stocks is from peak-to-trough, and since equities are down nearly 10% already, that would equate to a further fall of 20% from current levels (not 30% from current levels). _ Follow Cross Border Capital on Twitter @crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com. Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) What Is Liquidity? (10:59) The Turbulence Zone (21:06) What Will Be The First To Break? (23:58) Why Are Stocks And Credit Still So Richly Priced? (26:35) But What About Inflation? (32:24) Bit.com Ad (43:32) Can China Save the Day? (47:05) Why Falling Liquidity Causes A Dollar Squeeze (50:33) How High Oil Prices Further Deteriorate Liquidity (53:04) History of Global Liquidity (56:28) Capital Wars and Bretton Woods III (1:08:25) Is The Yield Curve Signaling A Recession? (1:09:56) How Far Will The Fed Get With QT? (Bagehot's Dictum)
Wed, 20 Apr 2022 12:56:47 -0000

Commercial Banks Taper Treasury Purchases | Joseph Wang & DC Analyst


DC Analyst joins Joseph Wang and Jack Farley for a discussion about commercial banks, treasuries, and bearishness on banks. -- DC on Twitter: @AnalystDC Joseph Wang on Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_ -- Links ___ Liberty Street Economics, "The Feds Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility": https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/04/the-feds-balance-sheet-runoff-and-the-on-rrp-facility/ Bullard's Triple Rate Hike Comment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/last-resort-fed-hike-enters-debate-as-bullard-invokes-1994-move DC's substack: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-15?s=r Joseph Wang's writings: https://fedguy.com/draining-the-rrp/ -- (00:00) Introduction To DC Analyst (02:01) Why Are Banks Buying Fewer Treasuries? (14:30) Implosion Of The Japanese Yen (20:40) Who Will Buy The Treasuries? (31:20) What If Banks Don't Lend More? (37:30) Bearish For Banks? (No) (42:47) Quantitative Tightening - Will The Fed Be Forced to Sell? (46:57) Mortgage-Backed Securities (57:40) Bullard's Comments on Triple-Hike
Mon, 18 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Think Rising Rates Are Good For Banks? Think Again!


An oft-cited fact is that rising rates support the profitability of the commercial banking system. Chris Whalen, veteran banker, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors & Author of The Institutional Risk Analyst begs to differ. Whalen explains to Farley that banks make money by the spread between their yield on their loans and their cost of funds, and that while rising rates do increase loan yields, they also increase banks cost of funds. Whalen also explains why he thinks the Federal Reserve will be unable to do Quantitative Tightening because it will be stuck with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for many years. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:35) Inflation (18:13) The Problem The Fed Faces with Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (21:08) Can the Federal Reserve Become Insolvent? (24:57) Mortgage Lending At Commercial Banks27 (27:32) BCB Ad (28:20) Are Rising Rates Good For Banks? (31:54) Why A Recession Is Likely? (34:51) Outlook on Bank Stocks and U.S. Treasuries (44:00) Biggest Risk: Non-Bank Lenders (48:31) Credit Card Lending (51:16) Will Banks Suffer Losses from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine? (54:40) European Banks (58:35) Jack's Post-Conversation Explanation
Thu, 14 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Slaying the Inflation Dragon | Jurrien Timmer


Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, joins Forward Guidance to explain his outlook of the current macro environment marked by slowing rates of growth and inflation coming down from high levels as central banks scramble to tighten monetary conditions. Timmer notes that while risk-free rates (as measured by Treasury yields) have risen sharply, risk premia as measured by credit spreads - and, in particular, the earnings yield of stocks - have barely budged. Timmer shares his outlook on bonds, commodities, equities at this point in the economic cycle, and he explains his long-term bull case for Bitcoin, as well as why one of his models indicates gold is severely undervalued (not investment advice). Nothing Timmer or Farley say is investment advice.Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter @TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com. Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (06:08) Where Are We In The Cycle Now? (12:40) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (21:29) The Stock Market (30:22) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Commodities (36:25) Gold (44:24) Will The Fed Reverse on Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (56:48) Japanification & Yield Curve Control (1:06:18) Bitcoin
Wed, 13 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Inflation Forces The Fed's Hand | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves


Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and George Goncalves to discuss the bond market, plumbing, inflation & more. -- Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow George Goncalves @bondstrategist Follow @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 10 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Birth of the U.S. Dollar | Roger Lowenstein


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Roger Lowenstein to discuss his new books and the intricacies of the American financial institution during and before the Civil War. Taking a look back at history, Roger is able to make connections to our modern day and how we can empower ourselves by knowing our backstory. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:27) American Finance Before the Civil War (06:46) How Did the North Fund the Civil War? (15:25) How the South Funded The Civil War? (18:56) Disastrous Inflation In The South (24:02) BCB Ad (25:25) Illegal Cotton Smuggling And Parallels To Russian Gas (34:20) Will Commodity Price Shock Cause A Recession? (37:36) Inflation (42:28) The Fed (47:03) Final Reflection on President Lincoln
Thu, 07 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Bullish Commodities? Not So Fast | Lukas Kuemmerle


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Lukas Kuemmerle joins Jack Farley to talk his commodity plan and interests in 2022. As someone interested not only in the strategy, but background of commodities, Lukas provides a comprehensive explanation of each of his commodity interests, discusses the current situation in Germany, and makes a case for his bullishness on Bitcoin. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Background and Framework (05:01) Commodity Overview (11:00) Oil & Natural Gas (23:54) Inflation Amid Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (26:15) Why Lukas Got Short-Term Skeptical of Commodity Prices In March (31:07) Backwardation & Contango (34:30) Bearish On Soybeans (39:26) Wheat (41:08) Shipping (46:08) Bearish Copper (48:50) Dollar Strength (50:32) Germany (55:40) Bitcoin
Wed, 06 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Zoltan Pozsar Calls For Bretton Woods III | Joseph Wang


Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang to discuss Zoltan Pozsar's recent Global Money Dispatch titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'. Read Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III here: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V -- Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 03 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Inflationary Recession Is On The Horizon | Paul Hodges


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle. Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021 (03:57) Forecasting A Recession (08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation (14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe (16:42) Oil Market Outlook (19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy (25:12) BCB Group Ad (26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy? (39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil (41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World (57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market (1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & Beyond
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

When Volatility Strikes, Watch Out! | Kris Sidial


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020. After noticing how the micro structure of markets had changed due to passive investing, buy side flows, primary dealer hedging post 2008 & ever increasing amounts of QE by the Fed, Kris founded Ambrus Group to take advantage of periods of increased volatility. Kris takes us all the back to March 2020, discussing the market mechanics which led to such a rapid sell-off. Now in 2022, as markets face increasingly uncertain headlines & the Fed begins tightening, Kris gives his outlook for 2022, sharing his key indicators to look out for, to avoid your portfolio being hit by volmageddon 2.0. -- Follow Follow Kris Sidial: @Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_ Barclays' VXX price jump drives double-digit gains for volatility arbitrage fund: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/barclays-vxx-price-jump-drives-double-digit-gains-volatility-arbitrage-fund-2022-03-16/ -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 27 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Nothing Destroys Inflation Like a Recession | Darius Dale


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes returning guest, Darius Dale of 42Macro. Darius sits down to discuss the current macro environment from recession warning signals on the horizon, stock & bond correlations during market sell-off's, the outlook for commodities in this environment, ARKK & other high beta assets and the mechanics driving inflation & the yield curve. 42Macro website: https://42macro.com/ Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ -- -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 24 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Will Janet Yellen Pull the Trigger? | Andy Constan


In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Andy Constan joins Jack to discuss the latest in financial news, reflecting on the Fed while discussing topics like market plumbing, roll-downs, and more. Andy Constan injects his absolute expertise of the subject matter into this interview-- you won't want to miss it. Follow Andy Constan @dampedspring Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Tue, 22 Mar 2022 20:31:01 -0000

The Fed's Forward Guidance Is No More | with Nick Timiraos


Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Nick Timiraos to discuss the Fed, forward guidance, and what the recent news all means for both. Follow Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 20 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Short Selling in the Age of Fraud | Carson Block


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Carson Block, Investor & Founder of Muddy Waters Research. Known for his role in activist short selling, Carson shares how he began his career in investing, what led him to being an activist short seller & reflects on the past two years of markets in the face of reckless monetary policy. Carson goes on to share the hows and whys of short selling, techniques for identifying fraudulent companies, differences between short selling in China vs the U.S, the role of activist short selling in markets and much more. Carson Block on Twitter @muddywatersre Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 17 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Options Trading for Macro Investors | Imran Lakha


In today's episode of Forward Guidance, class is back in session with Imran Lakha as the attending professor. Going through the basics of options, Lakha turns his attentions not only to the absolute fundamentals, but to the whys and hows of options, explaining their use, what can affect them, and when and where they should not be used. Not only is this a perfunctory lesson in options but a deeper dive into their function into the economic world for beginners and masters alike of the macro trade. Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Wed, 16 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Bond Market Has Spoken. Should Investors Listen? | Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman


The yield curve has flattened dramatically - should investors be worried as the curve is very close to inverting? Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman are on the case. Follow Harley Bassman @ConvexityMaven Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow @Blockworks_ Bassman's most recent piece: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Convexity-Maven-Dangerous-Curves-Ahead.pdf Wang's most recent piece: https://fedguy.com/breaking-the-system/
Sun, 13 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Fed Faces "Debt Death Spiral" While Inflation Soars | Luke Gromen & Jim Bianco


In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Luke Gromen, Founder of FFTT to discuss the situation the Fed finds itself in the face of the highest inflation in 40 years. With a debt to GDP over 100%, is the Fed trapped and inflation the only way out? Luke discusses the post 1971 Nixon shock's effect on the Dollar and walks us through the series of events which led to the Fed now being faced with, a "debt death spiral". Jim explains how inflation is President Biden's biggest problem and what this means for rate hikes ahead of FOMC. Are there signs of a recession in the U.S economy as commodities soar, the 2s 10s yield curve spread tightens & OIS spreads turn negative? Jim & Luke provide an absolute macro power hour you CAN'T afford to miss. To hear their thoughts on commodities, stress in the treasury market, effect of Russia & Ukraine conflict, sanctions speeding up the trend of de-dollarization & the death of globilazation, you're just going to have to tune in to find out. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 10 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Gold to $10,000 in The Big Reset | Willem Middelkoop


Willem Middelkoop, Founder & Chief Investment Officer of the Dutch-based Commodity Discovery Fund joins Forward Guidance to asses the macro forces driving commodity markets. What effect will war in Ukraine have on wheat, natural gas & oil prices around the globe? Willem goes on to discuss his book from 2014 titled 'The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame' and how current events are shaping a monetary reset. Willem also describes the famous 1971 Nixon shock, what a gold revaluation would look like, how sanctions could effect commodity markets, the roadmap to a $1 Million Bitcoin & how investors can navigate these volatile markets. _ Willem Middelkoop on Twitter @wmiddelkoop Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Tue, 08 Mar 2022 23:05:00 -0000

Does The Fed Control The Dollar? | Jeff Snider & Joseph Wang


Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Jeff Snider to discuss the Fed's control of the dollar and recent news surrounding the dollar's weight and worth. Follow Jeff Snider @JeffSnider_AIP Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 06 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq


In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcome Juliette Declercq to a thorough investigation into what's driving our economy and how it gets hurt. With her expertise and personal knowledge of the situation, Juliette and Jack analyse the market, looking at specific commodities and tracking trends showing up in our everyday. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Fri, 04 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Kharkiv Under Siege Yet Russian Oil Still Flows | Jacob Shapiro


Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the latest news and finds regarding the turmoil between Russia and Ukraine. Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 03 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Central Bank Of Russia Is On The Defensive with Joseph Wang & Frances Coppola


Frances Coppola and Joseph Wang break down the true implications and mechanics of sanctions against Russia. Key learnings include: 1) SWIFT isn't a payment rail, it's a messaging system. 2) The sanctions on Russian commercial banks don't go into effect until March 26 and contain many loopholes 3) The sanctions on the Russia's Central Bank were declared by governments but *require* action from Fed + ECB 4) The U.S. Treasury provided Russian commercial banks with a diagram teaching them how to circumvent its own policy Follow Frances Coppola @Frances_Coppola Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 16:00:00 -0000

How Passive HODL-ing Of Stocks Leads to Extreme Crashes | Mike Green


Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the market turmoil that has caught investors off guard so early on in 2022. Green tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rotation from growth stocks to the so-called inflation-trades (energy, industrial, and commodity stocks, for example), might have gotten ahead of itself. Green examines the mechanics of how passive flows distort price discovery and cause tendencies for the market to drift steadily higher while also raising the risk of extreme downward price movements. He explains how options overlays can take advantage of this environment and discusses his decision to bring those products to investors in an ETF wrapper. Green also discusses Simplifys new credit hedge ETFs, AGGH and CDX. Green argues that inflation will relent soon, and that the future rate hikes priced into the bond market likely overstate how far the Federal Reserve will actually raise rates. Mike Green on Twitter @profplum99 Simplify on Twitter @SimplifyETFs Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ __ BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://www.bcbgroup.com/jack __ Two papers Green discusses: Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967 Lasse Heje Pedersen, Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2849071 _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 24 Feb 2022 22:22:00 -0000

Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine with Jacob Shapiro


Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the impact of Russia's latest moves involving Ukraine. Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Wed, 23 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Russia/Ukraine Crisis To Cause Commodity Doom Loop | Jacob Shapiro


*AUDIO DISCLAIMER: Mic issue during the recording led to some high levels on Jack's end. We're aware, and we're sorry! Might want to tap the volume down a couple notches for this one. Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Forward Guidance to break down the rapidly escalating hostility between Russia and Ukraine. Shapiro puts in context including Russias recognition of Luhansk and Donestk as independent sovereign republics and the punitive sanctions on Russia. Shapiro tells Jack Farley that, if Russian tanks roll down the tanks of Kiev, the West might cut Russia off from the payment rails for global commerce, SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). If Russia were unable to sell its natural gas, wheat, and other commodities in Western markets, Shapiro continues, there could be a commodity doom loop that would cause prices to skyrocket. Shapiro also shares his outlook on China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Iran. Shapiro also serves as chief strategist at Perch Perspectives and the Geopolitics editor at Lykeion. This interview was recorded on Tuesday, February 22, at 10 am Eastern Time. Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 20 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Why Inflation Will Dissipate | Bilal Hafeez


Bilal Hafeez joins Jack Farley to discuss and analyse the differences between Europe and the United States on this episode of Forward Guidance. Not only does he lay out the departing events and patterns that distinct each region, but also explore other countries, like China and Brazil. Along with that, Hafeez also outlines his crypto views, experience during the last two years, and what he sees going forward for crypto. Follow Bilal Hafeez @bilalhafeez123 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 17 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton


Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, brings his expertise in trading, timing, and technicals to Forward Guidance. Thornton shares with Jack Farley the serious risks he sees to the stock market, such as the end of quantitative easing (QE), coordinated central bank rate hikes, widening spreads, inverted yield curves, and, perhaps most importantly, the highest inflation in 40 years. Tommy Thorntons Twitter: @TommyThornton Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Tue, 15 Feb 2022 21:00:14 -0000

Bank of Japan Re-embraces Yield Curve Control | Roundup


Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) tackle the latest in central banking news, from the the Bank of Japans (8301.T) announcement that it would pin Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at 25 basis points, to the massively-overhyped emergency Fed meeting on Monday, to St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullards comments that the Federal Reserves credibility is on the line. Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Sun, 13 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Fed Won't Get their Soft Landing | Jim Bianco


Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Jack Farley to share in-depth his framework for understanding the new interplay of inflation, the Fed, and asset prices in 2022. Bianco argues that the mounting pressures on central banks to tame inflation mean that they are far less worried about maintaining asset prices. Bianco and Farley also discuss DeFi as a threat to the traditional banking industry and the profound economic and social consequences of the rise of work-from-home. Filmed on February 9, 2022. Follow Jim Bianco @biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack. _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 10 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Financial Meltdown: The Trades Of March 2020 | Alex Gurevich


Alex Gurevich, CIO of Honte Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his learnings from running a large macro hedge fund during the gut-wrenching volatility of March 2020. Using time-date transcripts and charts from his new book, The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty, Gurevich tells of the epic mispricings and gut-wrenching drawdowns that sent shockwaves through the global financial world. Gurevich provides insight on institutional macro products such as Eurodollar options, oil futures, currency swaps, and much more. Gurevich looks forward and tells Farley his current outlook on Fed Fund Futures, long-term bonds, as well as risk-assets (beta) such as equities and commodities. Alex Gurevich on Twitter: @agurevich23 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Tue, 08 Feb 2022 21:00:00 -0000

European Bonds Throw A Tantrum | Joseph Wang


Co-hosts Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) break down the surge in European bonds in response to the hawkish shift of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB). Wang explains his most recent post on the damage that rate hikes inflict onto holders of fixed-income instruments, and the two explore the significance and consequences of a globally coordinated effort by central banks to stop inflation in its tracks. Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Wangs most recent article on Quantitative hikes: https://fedguy.com/quantitative-hikes/ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Sun, 06 Feb 2022 17:00:00 -0000

The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins


Porter Collins and Vincent Daniels were some of the last investors to bet against the Federal Reserve and win. Over 13 years after the events of The Big Short, they reflect on the past decade wherein the Federal Reserve tamed asset price volatility by keeping short-term rates very low and steadily expanding their balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE). Learning from this lesson, Daniels and Collins explains how Seawolf Capital largely avoided shorting stocks during 2021 because the Fed had the markets back. Now that high inflation has forced the Feds hand to tighten monetary policy, Daniels and Collins think that 2022 will be an excellent year for short-selling, and that in particular the most vulnerable stocks are unprofitable growth companies that saw enormous price appreciation in 2020 and 2021. The pair explain why they remain bullish on nuclear energy, the cannabis industry, as well as stocks in the shipping and energy sector. Follow Porter Collins @Seawolfcap Follow Vincent Daniels @VD718 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 03 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Fed Doesn't Care About Your Feelings | Liz Young


On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley sits down with Liz Young for a market 101 breakdown. Not only does Liz investigate some of the broader market trends, but narrows focus to explain how human behaviour, current events, and the Fed's mechanisms have all culminated in what we see today.
Tue, 01 Feb 2022 21:01:58 -0000

Will The Dollars Rise Crush Central Banks Plans?


Jack Farley welcomes back former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (Fed Guy), to analyze an action-packed week in which global central banks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Central Bank of Brazil, and the European Central Bank (ECB) release their plans for forthcoming monetary policy. Wang explains why a continued rise in the U.S. Dollar relative to other fiat currencies would likely force other central banks to tighten at a rate they deem to be too fast. Farley fields questions from the audience regarding balance sheet run-off and pace of rate hikes, and he poses to Wang the eternal questions: are reserves money? Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Sun, 30 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis | Russell Napier


Russell Napier of Orlock Advisors joins Jack Farley to share lessons from his experience as an financial analyst in Hong Kong during the Asian Financial Crisis. Napier notes that during the bull market in Asian equities of the first half of the 1990s, analysts attributed the boom to the high rates of economic growth in much of Asia. However, Napier tells Farley that the true cause of the dramatic bull market was the multitude of pegged exchange rates that did not allow Asian currencies to strengthen as foreign capital flowed in, boosting liquidity conditions. However, once the tide of foreign capital reversed course, the Asian miracle became a nightmare. Napier is the author of The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-98: Birth of the Age of Debt. https://www.libraryofmistakes.com/ Library of Mistakes Twitter: @EdinburghLoM Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 28 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Has the Fed Abandoned Risk Assets? | Joseph Wang


Jack Farley welcomes former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) for a new show devoted to all things central banking. The two analyze the most recent FOMC meeting, after which Fed Chair Powell on January 26, indicated that the strong labor market and high inflation prints were leading the Feds FOMC members to contemplate removing monetary accommodation with more speed and vigor than previously anticipated. Wang and Farley discuss the spike in Fed Funds Futures, quantitative tightening (QTs) impact on the market, as well as the striking request of Chinas leader, Xi Jinping, that the Federal Reserve not raise rates. Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 25 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Upcoming Risks for Stocks and Bitcoin | Lyn Alden


Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to give a much-needed update on her macro views as equity and crypto markets encounter intense selling pressure. Alden argues that stubbornly high inflation will cause rotation from growth stocks to value stocks to continue. However, Alden argues that shes more likely to buy than short beleaguered hypergrowth names (think $ARKK) - instead she sees the greatest weakness in the mega-cap FAANG names, which she compares to the Nifty Fifty stocks, a basket of blue-chip equities that seemed impregnable in the 1960s but ultimately fared poorly in the later inflationary decade of the 1970s. But its not the 1970s, where interest rates rose to meet inflation, that reminds Alden the most of our current era; instead it is the 1940s, where policies such as yield curve control ensured that bond yields remained well below levels of inflation. Alden argues that in this environment of sustained negative real interest rates, commodities will perform very well, and in particular commodities of fixed supply like gold and Bitcoin. Lyn Alden on Twitter: @LynAldenContact Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_ Lyn Aldens investment analysis can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/. If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter.
Fri, 21 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Inflation or Recession - Which Will the Fed Choose? } Jared Dillian


Is the Federal Reserve stuck between a rock and a hard place? Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap argues that the monetary tightening needed to tame inflation will inflict serious damage to the economic recovery, to the point that the Fed essentially has a choice between secular inflation and severe recession. Which door will the Fed choose? Dillian is inclined to believe that the Fed will attempt to chart a middle path between both options that will actually result in the dreaded stagflation - where inflation continues to rise while economic growth slows down. Dillian tells Forward Guidance host Jack Farley why he thinks the ongoing rotation from growth stocks to value stocks will continue, and why he in particular is interesting in buying the shares of big and ugly companies. Dillian also shares his views on crypto, gold, and bonds. Dillian on Twitter: @dailydirtnap Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 18 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Stock & Crypto Options Have Exploded - Whats Next? | Imran Lakha & Ming Zhao


Imran Lakha and Ming Zhao join Jack Farley to make sense of how the proliferation of options has changed the investing landscape in tradfi and crypto. After discussing the role of memestocks like GameStop and AMC, as well as structural vol selling call overwriting, Lakha and Zhao share the dos and donts of buying and selling options, such as why investors should never exercise options, and how investors should think about whether implied volatility is rich or cheap. Lakha and Zhao also catalog the explosion of crypto options, both via centralized exchanges such as Deribit as well as the emergence of DeFi Options Vaults (DOVs). Zhao on Twitter: @FabiusMercurius Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 14 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Powell Put Won't Save Stocks | Joseph Wang


In this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack once again sits down with former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang, more commonly known by his moniker Fed Guy. In the interview, the two go deep into the leadership, policy, and future of the Federal Reserve, as well as look at how textbook concepts such as the Fed controlling inflation through the federal funds rate are outdated at best. Joseph takes his years of experience and impressive knowledge of modern financial systems to critique how central banks run the economies of today. Jack and Joseph question if the Fed is on the right path to end inflation and if the current regime even knows how to combat the problems of an economy overheated by fiscal stimulus. Dont miss this important and thought-provoking interview. Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Wed, 12 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Can Earning Season Save Growth Stocks? | Sam Burns


In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley sits down with Sam Burns, the founder and chief strategist of Mill Street Research. In addition to general macro trends in the economic and financial world, Sam and Jack discuss Sams MAER model (Monitor of Analyst Earning Revisions), which uses the insight of market analysts to judge how the markets will move. Using the research of analysts, Sam is able to buck the predictions of the crowd and come to his own well-formulated conclusions on markets. Jack and Sam delve into complexity sometimes required to grasp todays difficult-to-understand swings in finance. The two question and rethink traditional narratives within finance in this high-level discussion. Dont miss this talk with a heterodox thinker in the financial industry. Mill Street Research on Twitter: @MillStResearch Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 07 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Crisis Brewing in Energy Markets | Tracy Shuchart


In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley and guest Tracy Shuchart discuss the tumultuous past two years of the energy market. Since 2020, the markets for oil and natural gas have hit historic points, most famously when the futures price of oil went negative in April of 2020. Tracy gives expert insight into how the energy sectors adaptation to massive shocks in demand, production, and financial credibility have affected the price of oil in the spot market and the futures market. The interview delves not only into the superficial price movements of the recent past, but into powerful decision makers such as OPEC as well. Additionally, Tracy and Jack look at exogenous factors causing price movements, such as a move towards green energy and recent geopolitical tensions in Europe and Central Asia. The conversation delves into the current reality of the energy market, as well as its potential future. Hedge Fund Telemetry: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/author/tracy-shuchart/ Tracy Shuchart on Twitter: @chigrl Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 04 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Theres A Bubble in The Inflation Narrative | Darius Dale


Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for 2022. Dale explains why his business cycle framework, which tracks the rate of change in growth and inflation in order to forecast and risk manage asset allocation, is signaling that the bloom may be off the rose for high-beta assets such as speculative growth darlings, crypto-assets SPACs, as well as reflationary stocks in the materials and energy space. Because the rate of change of economic growth is falling, Dale expects safer assets like mega-cap tech (FAANG) and long-term government bonds to outperform on a relative basis. Dale notes that his framework is probabilistic in nature, not deterministic, and he argues that investors are better served by weighing the likelihood of relative outcomes rather than looking into their crystal ball for certain outcomes. Dale also cautions against becoming wedded to narratives that promise assured outcomes. 42Macro website: https://42macro.com/ Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 31 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000

Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle


On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jack welcomes Ronnie Stoeferle, partner at Incrementum AG. Stoeferle argues that the world is already in a new inflationary era that he calls monetary climate change. Stoeferle discusses key features of a debt-based monetary system (50 years and counting) and predicts that the merging of fiscal and monetary policy will create a shift from asset price inflation to consumer price inflation. Stoeferle shares why he believes gold and Bitcoin will do very will in this new monetary environment, and he elaborates on several key drives of the prices of both of these non-inflatable assets. Incrementum's website: https://www.incrementum.li/en/ Ronnie Stoeferles Twitter: @RonStoeferle Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 28 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000

The Hidden Risks of Passive Investing | Steven Bregman


The rise of indexation has given many investors a cheap and straightforward way to access the stock market. But now that over half of all investing dollars are allocated to passive strategies, is the dominance of passive investing creating market distortions in ways that meaningfully alter share prices? Steven Bregman, president and co-founder of Horizon Kinetics, has been tracking the consequences of passive indexations rapid rise, and on this sixteenth episode of Forward Guidance, he shares with viewers his findings. Bregman explains key factors such as the crowding-out effect and hidden illiquidity that can explain the drastic outperformance of equity giants such as Apple, Microsoft, and other mega-cap stocks ($NVDA, $TSLA, $FB, etc.) that now comprise nearly half of the S&P 500.Bregman argues that the S&P 500 in 2021 is no longer a diversified basket of stocks as it was 30 years ago, because so many out-of-favor stocks such as oil drillers, gold miners, and other businesses that benefit from bouts of inflation (such as the one right now) have been crowded-out of the index. At the end of this nearly two-hour masterclass in passive investing, Bregman reveals a formula that he argues is guaranteed to beat the S&P 500: select for the smart penny. Horizon Kinetics website:https://horizonkinetics.com/ Jacks prior interview with James Davolos, Portfolio Manager of the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bVpJ58FhFc About $INFL:https://horizonkinetics.com/products/etf/infl/ Horizon Kinetics Twitter handle: @HorizonKinetics Jack Farleys Twitter handle: @JackFarley96
Fri, 24 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000

Former Fed Trader: Rate Hikes Will Crash Markets | Joseph Wang


On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang, renowned former Fed trader, shares his views and observations on our macro world. Not only does he explain concepts like quantitative easing, but he also goes over the disparate affects of various market conditions-- from the Fed's accelerated taper, to the outcome of rate hikes. Wang's views and discussions on both the past but future long-term are not to be missed!
Tue, 21 Dec 2021 15:14:04 -0000

Felix Zulaufs Big Calls For 2022 And Beyond


On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor known for his uncanny market timing, shares his outlook on various time horizons about stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf explains why the reflationary types of trades might continue to sell-off over the near-term as economic conditions worsen, however restored liquidity conditions might in the second half of 2022 breathe new life in stocks and commodities. Zulauf shares his longer-term analysis on gold and currencies, and tells Jack Farley why he thinks that bond yields are in the process of bottoming.
Fri, 17 Dec 2021 14:00:00 -0000

The Bull Market In Crap Is Over | Kevin Muir


Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares: Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls crap) will likely continue How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocks
Tue, 14 Dec 2021 14:00:00 -0000

Are Bonds Pricing in a Market Crash? | Alfonso Peccatiello


Todays guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass. Alfonso shares with Blockworks Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss: - the global credit impulse turning negative - long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt) - why quantitative easing (QE) isnt inflationary Alfonso Peccatiellos Twitter: @MacroAlf Jack Farleys Twitter:@JackFarley96 Alfonso Peccatiellos newsletter, The Macro Compass:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Article on quantitative easing:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printing Article on 2022 outlook:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio
Fri, 10 Dec 2021 16:30:00 -0000

Inflation Is Not Transitory, And Neither Is The Bear Market In Atrocious Companies | Harris Kupperman


With fund managers keen to lock in gains from a lucrative year, the pain trade is here, says Harris Kuppy Kupperman. Moreover, pie-in-the-sky technology companies are falling back to earth, threatening to bring the entire market down with them. Yet Kuppy remains bullish on risk assets because in his Project Zimbabwe framework wherein inflation runs rampant as central banks remain hopelessly behind the curve, going long is the way to go. Kuppy argues that oil futures are the assets that will benefit most from inflation because ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates will depress supply. Kuppy, the publisher of Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM), also shares several idiosyncratic trades ranging from Uranium to paper. Kuppy and Blockworks Jack Farley also discuss China, Robinhood, and United States Oil ETF ($USO).
Tue, 07 Dec 2021 22:32:23 -0000

A Little Bitcoin Goes a Long Way | James Butterfill


The emergence of crypto funds and exchange traded products (ETPs) has changed the game - but just how much capital is flowing into crypto via these channels? James Butterfill, Investment Strategist at CoinShares, joins Jack Farley to shed light on the crypto fund flows that are serving as onramps for many institutional investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Solana and Polkadot.
Fri, 03 Dec 2021 19:12:35 -0000

The Unintended Consequences of Central Banks' Easy Money | William White


Listeners of the Forward Guidance podcast are in for a real treat today. Jack interviews noted economist and former central banker Dr. William White, who served on the front lines of monetary policy for over half a decade. White, a stern critic of the easy money policy that preceded the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, argues that ultra-low interest rates threatens financial stability and creates a bevy of unintended consequences such as flash crashes, overvalued asset prices, and abrupt illiquidity. Dr. White shares his views on whether the U.S dollars status as the worlds reserve currency is sustainable, and why bond yields remain low in face of the red-hot inflation that has descended on so many countries. Lastly, Dr. White makes the case that these economic woes are but one of the major four challenges world faces, with the other three "Four Horsemen" being in the spheres of politics, public health, and the environment.
Tue, 30 Nov 2021 14:30:00 -0000

Investment Strategies to PROFIT From Inflation (Not Just Hedge) | James Davolos


With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal? On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that inflation will increase the value of scalable, economically resilient business models with exposure to hard assets, and he shares several examples, ranging from gold royalty companies and financial exchanges to timber companies and agricultural processing firms.
Fri, 26 Nov 2021 18:52:32 -0000

The Dollar Rises With Crypto And Gold - What Gives? | Michael Nicoletos at DAS: London


When Jack Farley ran into macro investor Michael Nicoletos at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in London, he knew the two had to film an interview. Nicoletos shares his thoughts on cryptos role within a macro portfolio, why the U.S. dollar is rising against other currencies, and why the 40-year bull market in bonds might not yet be over. Nicoletos argues that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will eventually replace stablecoins as an onramp to crypto, and argues that China economic woes are very serious. Blockworks next crypto event in May 2021:https://blockworks.co/events/permissionless/ Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Michael Nicoletos Twitter: @mnicoletos
Tue, 23 Nov 2021 12:00:00 -0000

The Psychological Toll of Inflation | Vincent Deluard


We're heading for an inflationary decade that will change society as we know it. That's according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc,who argues inflation is not transitory as many insist but rather a feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks' Jack Farley 5 reasons why high prices are no longer the cure to high prices, including today's tight labor market, the flurry of post-Covid spending packages, and China's withdrawal from its role as an exporter of deflation. Deluard argues that inflation itself is inflationary; while soaring commodity prices, supply chains bottlenecks, and excessive stimulus are undoubtedly the immediate drivers of the current spike in prices, the fundamental driver of secular inflation is an insidious increase in our collective preference for the present.
Fri, 19 Nov 2021 12:00:00 -0000

How To Spot Overvalued Companies | Tobias Carlisle


Tobias Carlisle, Portfolio Manager at Acquirers Funds, joins Jack Farley on this sixth episode of Forward Guidance to explain why he believes quality companies are being serially undervalued. Carlisle argues that the equity market assigns far too high of a value on fast-growing stocks, and far too-little of a value on companies whose revenues are growing slowly but whose return on capital is very high and whose balance sheets are pristine. Carlisle shares with Farley the methodology and structure of of his value funds, The Acquirers Fund ($ZIG) and the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value ETF ($DEEP), and he shares his vision for the future of value investing.
Fri, 12 Nov 2021 11:55:00 -0000

Is Inflation Overhyped? | Eric Basmajian


Is the 40-year era of falling bond yields and low inflation coming to an end? That is the question investors have been asking themselves for months, and now that October's CPI reading hit its highest level since 1991, it is a query that can no longer be avoided. Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research is confident that all this anxiety is unnecessary. On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Basmajian tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rate of inflation will soon relent, and why he thinks the bull market in bonds is nowhere close to over. Pointing to the fall in economic growth rates as measured by industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income, Basmajian argues that an overweight allocation to Treasury bonds will protect investors from a slowdown in growth, as can be seen by the rolling over of coincident factors such as industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income. Basmajian explores particularly explosive parts of the Consumer Price Index like durable goods and rent, and he explains his long-term view that aging populations will ensure low bond yields in the United States just as they did in Europe and Japan. Basmajian's article on demographics: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/the-global-demographic-vortex Basmajian's article on rent inflation: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/are-you-worried-about-rent-inflation The Dallas Fed's paper on rent inflation: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0824
Fri, 05 Nov 2021 11:00:00 -0000

Deconstructing Macro Narratives About Inflation, Bonds, and Bitcoin | Huw Roberts, Quant Insight


The world of macro investing is full of narratives: that a rising dollar threatens emerging market stocks and commodity prices; that rising bond yields imperil growth stocks but buoy value stocks; and that inflation is bad for Tesla, good for gold, and great for Bitcoin. There is more than a grain of truth to these mantras, but they miss the complex interplay of macro variables. On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley investigates these sacred cows of macro to see if they are a little shaky on their legs in a man vs. machine conversation with Huw Roberts, head of analytics at Quant Insight.
Tue, 02 Nov 2021 11:00:00 -0000

Hunting for Hidden Financial Risks | Stephen Clapham


Do balance sheets matter? Do cash flows matter? In a world where asset prices are driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, the answer can seem to be yes. But since this environment gives companies license to embroider their finances, the ability to spot their accounting sleight-of-hand is of immense value to investors. Today on the third episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes Stephen Clapham, forensic accountant and founder of Behind the Balance Sheet. Clapham shows the most common instances of financial legerdemain and gives in depth analysis of companies such as Tesla, Ferrari, and The Hut Group.
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 12:59:46 -0000

The Global Energy Crisis, Explained | Warren Pies


The world faces an energy crisis that threatens to stop the economic recovery in its tracks. On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Jack Farley to explain the root causes of soaring prices of oil and natural gas. Pies argues that the world is entering a regime of secular inflation that will have profound implications for investors, such as turning the correlation between stocks and bonds from negative to positive. Pies shares his views on real assets and explains why he thinks Bitcoin will likely continue to outperform gold at least over the short-term. PIes challenges mainstream narratives about Bitcoin such as the stock-to-flow model as well its being uncorrelated with other risk assets.
Wed, 27 Oct 2021 16:09:47 -0000

The Unwinding of the Long Term Debt Cycle | Lyn Alden


Forward Guidance is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, Jack Farley will be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday. Today's show is with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Lyn will be sharing why she thinks the global financial system is nearing the apogee of a long-term debt cycle, and the only way to unwind the leverage without causing ruinous economic data is through persistently higher inflation and a significantly weaker U.S. Dollar. Alden also shares her views on surging energy costs, Chinas stock market woes, and the flurry of new Bitcoin ETFs that have come to market recently.

Motley Fool Money

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Our Listeners Can Fix Cracker Barrel


Cracker Barrel is trading lower than it did when its restaurants were shut down during the pandemic. (00:21) Bill Mann and Ricky Mulvey discuss Nvidia becoming the most valuable company, and review turnaround plans for Cracker Barrel sent in by Motley Fool Money listeners. Plus, (13:55) Alicia Alfiere and Mary Long take a look at Coupang, a dominant e-commerce company in South Korea. Companies discussed: NVDA, MSFT, CBRL, WDFC, CPNG Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Bill Mann, Mary Long, Alicia Alfiere Engineer: Dan Boyd Public.com disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account (edited) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 18 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Fisker: No Gas, All Brakes


Sometimes, a billion bucks just isnt enough to kickstart the engine. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Mary Long discuss Fiskers bankruptcy and Wells Fargos latest credit card bet. Then, at (17:22), Ailson and Bro tackle the listener mailbag, answering questions about retirement distributions, target date funds, and commodities. Learn more about the Range Rover Sport at www.landroverusa.com Got a question for Alison and Bro? Email it to podcasts@fool.com Companies discussed: FSRN, TSLA, WFC, GSG, DBC, GLD Host: Mary Long Guests: Asit Sharma, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 17 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Activists at Autodesks Door


Starboard Value would like to see some changes at Autodesk and isnt shy about it. And Jensen Huangs commencement address at Caltech has some timeless life and investing advice. (00:21) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Why Starboard Value is putting Autodesks management team and board on notice. - Broadcoms 10-for-1 stock split, and why the 90s are alive and well in tech. - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huangs advice for graduates at Caltech and wisdom from 30 years at the helm. Then, at (18:02) Ricky Mulvey talks with Bryce Tingle, business law professor and author of the new book, Hard Lessons in Corporate Governance, about Elon Musks big pay raise. Companies discussed: ADSK, AVGO, NVDA, TSLA. Catch Jensen Huangs Caltech commencement speech here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qXDdToZHzE&t=3138s Go to www.monarchmoney.com/fool for an extended 30-day free trial. Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Ricky Mulvey, Bryce Tingle Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Dez Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 16 Jun 2024 15:00:00 -0000

Meet the Fool: Jason Moser


Peter Lynch says that some of the best investments can be found by looking at what you use every day. The same thinking might apply to careers, too. Jason Moser is a Senior Analyst at The Motley Fool who heads up our Virtual Revolution portfolio. In todays episode, Jason talks with Mary Long about early investing successes, whats shaped his investing philosophy, and how golf changed his life. Have an analyst you want us to feature on an upcoming Meet the Fool episode? Want to share your own investing journey with us? Send us a note (or a voice recording!) to podcasts@fool.com Tickers mentioned: F, BAC, BRK.A, BRK.B, MKL, GVA Host: Mary Long Guest: Jason Moser Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 15 Jun 2024 16:00:00 -0000

Meet the Fool: Asit Sharma


How do you go from writing poetry to reading 10Ks for a living? Asit Sharma is a Senior Analyst at The Motley Fool and a frequent guest on the show. In todays episode, Asit talks with Mary Long about the long and winding road of his investing journey, mistakes hes made along the way, and advice for navigating a career pivot. Have an analyst you want us to feature on an upcoming Meet the Fool episode? Want to share your own investing journey with us? Send us a note (or a voice recording!) to podcasts@fool.com Also: Join Stock Advisor, The Motley Fools flagship investing service, at www.fool.com/asit Host: Mary Long Guest: Asit Sharma Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Tickers mentioned: AMZN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 14 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Apple Shows Intelligence, Fed Signals Caution


Apple arrives on the scene with its AI debut Apple Intelligence, we check in on who is winning the artificial intelligence arms race and whether well actually see a Fed rate cut in 2024 . (00:21) Jason Moser and Emily Flippen discuss: - Apples entrance to the world of AI, the details of Apple Intelligence and the OpenAI partnership. . -Tesla shareholders approving Elon Musks 2018 pay package and plans to move to Texas, and whats next for the largest executive compensation plan of all time. - The Feds plan to hold steady on rates, and Adobes stellar quarter. (19:11) Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks talks through the state of outdoor decking and the companys plans to grow by replacing the average wood deck. (34:12) Jason and Emily break down two stocks on their radar: Autodesk and Green Thumb Industries. Stocks discussed: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, ADBE, ADSK, GTBIF Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Emily Flippen Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 13 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Oracle and the AI Boom


Is the software giant still a growth company? (00:21) Tim Beyers and Ricky Mulvey break down results from Oracle and why Microsoft is focusing on start-ups for the next leg of its AI strategy. Plus, (18:10) Mary Long and Motley Fool analyst Anthony Schiavone look at Hersheys near-term headwinds and long-term opportunity for investors. Companies discussed: ORCL, MSFT, DOCN, HSY Article discussed: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsoft-nadella-openai-inflection-9727e77a?mod=hp_lead_pos7 Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Tim Beyers, Mary Long, Anthony Schiavone Engineers: Tim Sparks, Austin Morgan Public.com disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 12 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

How to Greet the Next Bear Market


If everyone else is buying, should you be too? (00:21) Jim Gillies and Mary Long discuss macro news from the US and Canada. Plus, Jim reflects on down markets of days gone by. Then, at (16:10) Alex Friedman talks with organizational psychologist Richard Davis, author of the new book Good Judgment, about the importance of a CEOs personality. Public.com disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Companies discussed: PTON, UA Host: Mary Long Guests: Jim Gillies, Alex Friedman, Richard Davis Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Dez Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 11 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

What Apple Didnt Say


Its not artificial intelligence. Its Apple Intelligence. (00:21) Nick Sciple and Ricky Mulvey discuss the updates from Apples Worldwide Developers Conference, and what they mean for the tech giants customers and investors. Plus, they look at how Cracker Barrel is trying to reinvent itself. Then, (17:48) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp check in on the state of retirement. Learn more about the Range Rover Sport at www.landroverusa.com Got a question for Alison and Bro? Email it to podcasts@fool.com Companies discussed: AAPL, MSFT, CBRL Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Nick Sciple, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Engineers: Dan Boyd, Annie Pope Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 10 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

We Can Fix You, Southwest


Elliott Management amps up the activist activity, and puts Southwests leadership and board on notice. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Why Elliot Management is looking to shakeup leadership at Southwest after taking a 10%+ stake in the airline. - Nvidias stock split, and why this one may matter more than most. - The new names in the S&P 500 Crowdstrike, KKR, and GoDaddy and what they say about the state of the market. (17:57) Are the worlds tallest buildings ego-projects or promising investment opportunities? Ricky Mulvey talks with economist and skyscraper expert Jason Barr, about the state of supertalls and how Chinas building boom is leading to an increase in homeowners without homes. Companies discussed: LUV, NVDA, CRWD, KKR, GDDY, RHI, CMA, ILMN Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Ricky Mulvey, Jason Barr Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd Visit our sponsor Monarch Money: Go to monarchmoney.com/FOOL for an extended 30 day free trial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 09 Jun 2024 15:00:00 -0000

Ozempics Unknowns


Nearly half of Americans say theyre willing to pay for weight-loss drugs. But what are the downsides to these so-called miracle drugs? Johann Hari is the author of the book, Magic Pill: The Extraordinary Benefits and Disturbing Risks of the New Weight Loss Drugs. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Hari for a conversation about: The medical magic that makes GLPs so effective Whether online pharmacies can responsibly prescribe these drugs Why theres a much larger market for these in the US than in other parts of the world To see where you can get a copy of Magic Pill, head to: www.magicpillbook.com Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Johann Hari Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Tim Sparks Companies discussed: NVO, LLY, ZM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 08 Jun 2024 16:00:00 -0000

Is Multifamily Overbuilt?


Last year, 440,000 new apartments went on the market a 36-year high. This year, even more new builds are coming. Thats good news for renters, but perhaps less good for developers. What about REIT investors? Matt Argersinger and Ricky Mulvey discuss the state of the multifamily market and why REITs (of any stripe!) arent out for the count quite yet. Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Matt Argersinger Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Dan Boyd Epic Bundle discount link: www.fool.com/epic Companies discussed: MAA, PLD, DLR, SPG Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 07 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Cybersecurity Soars, Cyclical Stocks Cycle


Gotta-have-it businesses like Crowdstrike arent seeing any slowdown this earnings season, but goods like RVs and high-end athleisure arent exactly flying off the shelves. (00:21) Bill Mann and Jason Moser discuss: - The strength of Crowdstrikes recent earnings and cybersecurity spend, a cyclical company that looks interesting, and why even at valuation lows, Lululemon has some work to do. - Why some investors are interested in starting a new stock exchange in Texas and Spotifys latest price hikes. (19:11) The regulatory environment continues to heat up late last month the DOJ filed its latest antitrust suit against ticketing giant Live Nation. Motley Fool Canada analyst Nick Sciple unpacks the case and what it might mean for Live Nation and investors. (32:24) Jason and Bill break down two stocks on their radar: Docusign and Caseys General Stores. Stocks discussed: CAVA, NDAQ, KR, ORCL, SPOT, SHOP, CVX, BUR Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Bill Mann, Jason Moser, Nick Sciple Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 06 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

The Big Three Drive All-Time Highs


If you own an S&P 500 index fund then about 20% of your money is in Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Ricky Mulvey discuss why big tech is driving the market, earnings from Lululemon, and mindset advice for new investors. Plus, (17:05) Mary Long interviews Tom Steyer, author of Cheaper, Faster, Better: How Well Win the Climate War about advancements in green tech. Companies discussed: AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, LULU, CAVA, CRM Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Asit Sharma, Mary Long, Tom Steyer Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Public.com disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 05 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

A Salespersons Dream


Growth comes easy when the product speaks for itself. At (00:21), David Meier and Mary Long discuss CrowdStrike earnings and a tender offer from Monster Beverage. Then, at (17:08), Asit Sharma catches up with John McCool, Chief Platform Officer at Arista Networks. They discuss Arista's role in the AI race, how competition fuels innovation, and what's next for the cloud-based networking company. Learn more about the Range Rover Sport at: www.landroverusa.com Companies discussed: CRWD, PANW, MNST, ANET, NVDA, CSCO, JNPR, MSFT Host: Mary Long Guests: David Meier, Asit Sharma, John McCool Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 04 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Hindenburg Targets Real Estate Lender


A juicy short report goes up against business fundamentals. (00:21) Jim Gillies and Ricky Mulvey break down Hindenburg Researchs report on Axos Financial. Plus, Jim discusses why investors should consider adding Academy Sports + Outdoors to their watchlists. Plus, (16:47)Robert Brokamp interviews Eileen Freiburger, Managing Director of the Garrett Planning Network, about what you should expect from meeting with a financial advisor. Learn more about the Range Rover Sport at www.landroverusa.com Companies mentioned: AX, NKLA, CLOV, DKS, ASO Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jim Gillies, Robert Brokamp, Eileen Freiburger Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 03 Jun 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Waste Management Goes Dumpster Diving


The biggest name in waste is looking to build out its business, and it might have found a cheap way to get into medical waste and document shredding with Stericycle. (0:25) Bill Barker and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Waste Managements planned $7B acquisition of medical waste company Stericycle, and how its a cheap addition to help WM build out its offerings. - Costcos strong quarter, why membership prices are an untapped lever, and how the hot dog combo continues to be $1.50. - Why big is better for retailers this earnings season. (15:34) How is AI changing search? Tim Beyers and Tim White breakdown why Google has welcomed what used to be its greatest fear onto its site. Companies discussed: WM, COST, SRCL, GOOG, GOOGL Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Bill Barker, Tim Beyers, Tim White Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Dez Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 02 Jun 2024 16:00:00 -0000

Kyla Scanlon on Inflation, Economic Vibes, and Pizza


Almost half of the United States believes the S&P 500 is down for the year. The chart says otherwise. So, what can explain the disconnect? Kyla Scanlon is an economic commentator and educator. Her new book is In This Economy? How Money & Markets Really Work. Mary Long caught up with Scanlon for a conversation about: - The challenges of measuring economic data. - Whats driving inflation. - How Dominos turned around its business. Host: Mary Long Guest: Kyla Scanlon Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 01 Jun 2024 18:58:00 -0000

What a CEO Learned from Warren Buffett


and other legendary leaders. David Novak is the former CEO of Yum! Brands. Hes also the author of the new book, How Leaders Learn: Master the Habits of the Worlds Most Successful People. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Novak to discuss: Using power to empower others. Lessons from market-beating executives. Why prioritizing people over results is a winning strategy. Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: David Novak Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Tim Sparks Companies discussed: YUM, CHDN, SBUX, GE, WMT, HD, LUV, TGT, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, NFLX, GOOG, DASH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 31 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Mall Retailers are Alive and Well


Abercrombie and Fitch and Dicks Sporting Goods show the familiar names near the food court are doing just fine, and we share one stock that wins regardless of where you stop in to shop. (00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss: - Cavas valuation at fresh all-time highs post-earnings, why Salesforce might be a buy on the dip, and Chewys strength as a focused company on full display. - Banner quarters from Dicks Sporting Goods and Abercrombie and Fitch proving the mall isnt dead any time soon. (19:11) To help us wade through the great tightening in commercial real estate, why many sellers arent quite ready to deal, and what the rate picture looks like, last week Motley Fool contributor Matt Frankel talked with Willy Walker, CEO of Walker and Dunlop. (35:20) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: PayPal and Simon Property Group. Stocks discussed: PYPL, SPG. Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Matt Frankel, WIlly Walker Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 30 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Salesforce = Less of a Force?


Sales slow for the software company. But is that the end of the growth story? At (00:21), Tim Beyers and Mary Long break down Salesforce earnings and ask whether the stocks slump is warranted. Then, at (17:22), Asit Sharma and Ricky Mulvey take a look at some companies that could ride the tailwinds of Nvidias standout earnings. Check out the Range Rover Sport at www.landroverusa.com Companies discussed: CRM, SNOW, AMZN, NVDA, AMD, MSFT, MU Host: Mary Long Guests: Tim Beyers, Asit Sharma, Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 29 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

529s for 5/29


On May 29, there is one investing account that deserves a celebration. First up, (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Bill Barker break down earnings from Chewy, Dicks Sporting Goods, and CAVA. Then, (16:16) Robert Brokamp discusses the fundamentals of 529 Plans and saving for college with Roger Young, CFP and Thought Leadership Director at T. Rowe Price. Check out Pivotal with Hayete Gallot: https://pivotal-with-hayete-gallot.cohostpodcasting.com/ Companies discussed: CHWY, DKS, CAVA Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Bill Barker, Robert Brokamp, Roger Young Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 28 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Activists: Higher All-Time Highs, Please


Sometimes, great isnt good enough. (00:21) Jason Moser and Mary Long discuss T-Mobiles latest purchase and why Elliott Management has beef with a company thats trading at all-time highs. Then, at (14:51), Yasser el-Shimy joins for a look at Rocket Lab, the end-to-end space company. Companies discussed: TMUS, VZ, T, TDS, USM, TXN, RKLB Learn more about the Range Rover Sport at www.landroverusa.com. Host: Mary Long Guests: Jason Moser, Yasser el-Shimy Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Chace Pryzlepa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 26 May 2024 15:00:00 -0000

Finding Home Run Investments


Venture capitalists dont mind strike-outs, so long as they get their home runs. What can stock investors learn from that approach? Ricky Mulvey talks with Ilya Strebulaev and Alex Dang, co-authors of The Venture Mindset: How to Make Smarter Bets and Achieve Extraordinary Growth, about: The benefits of building an anti-portfolio Why it pays to get outside of your own four walls Lessons from a piggy bank auction Strebulaev is also the founder of the Venture Capital Initiative and a Professor of Private Equity and Finance at Stanfords Graduate School of Business. Dang is a CEO, technology executive, and advisor whos worked with Amazon, McKinsey, and across Silicon Valley. Companies discussed: CRM, AAPL, IBM Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Alex Dang, llya Strebulaev Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Tim Sparks, Heather Horton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 25 May 2024 16:00:00 -0000

The Movies Market Correction


In 2018, the U.S. box office grossed almost $12 billion. This year, its expected to bring in closer to $8 billion. Whats eating the silver screen? Catie Peiper, the Fools resident entertainment expert, joins Ricky Mulvey for a look at the state of the movie industry. They discuss: The relationship between streamers, studios, and theaters. How losing China as a distributor changes the dynamics of business and creativity. Where moviemaking goes from here. Companies discussed: DIS Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Catie Peiper Producers: Mary Long Engineers: Tim Sparks, Chace Przylepa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 24 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Nvidia, Target & The Mailbag


AI continues to float Nvidias boat, and it's helping an unlikely old school name in tech. (00:21) Jason Moser and Bill Mann discuss: - Nvidias blowout quarter and upcoming stock split. - Why buy-now-pay-later is going to start looking more like the credit card industry, and what Jamie Dimon has to say about the state of JP Morgan. - Earnings updates from retailers Target, Autozone, and Lowes. (19:11) We dip into the mailbag to answer some questions about a red-hot legacy tech stock, how to handle a growing position, and how to break into the investing biz. (32:27) Jason and Bill break down two stocks on their radar, Sonos and Boston Beer, and a few recipes on their radar too. Stocks discussed: NVDA, AFRM, JPM, TGT, AZO, LOW Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Bill Mann Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 23 May 2024 20:02:00 -0000

Nvidia Rolls On


The tech giant continues to crush analysts lofty expectations. (00:20) Asit Sharma joins Ricky Mulvey to discuss the boom of Nvidias data center business, future growth stories for the company, and some questions about its valuation. Then, (13:08)Matt Frankel and Mary Long continue their conversation about David and Goliath business match-ups. Companies discussed: NVDA, META, CAVA, SG, CMG, MKL, KNSL Host:Ricky Mulvey Guests: Asit Sharma, Mary Long, Matt Frankel Engineers: Tim Sparks, Desiree Jones Public.com disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 22 May 2024 08:00:00 -0000

Tight Budgets Come for Target


Just how resilient is resilient? (00:21) Jason Moser and Mary Long take a look at Target earnings, the resilient consumer, and new rules for the Buy Now, Pay Later industry. Then, at (14:47), Matt Frankel joins for some David-versus-Goliath stock matchups. Companies discussed: TGT, WMT, COST, AFRM, PYPL, FICO, UPST, DKNG, CHDN Host: Mary Long Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Frankel Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Dez Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 21 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

What's on Jamie Dimon's Mind?


A lot, actually. (00:21) Bill Mann and Ricky Mulvey discuss JPMorgans investor day and CEO Jamie Dimons thoughts on stock buybacks andinflation. They also talk about the shift toward fast-casual dining and Red Lobsters bankruptcy. Then, (17:05) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer listener questions about 403(b) accounts and saving for college. Check out the Range Rover Sport at www.landroverusa.com Got a question for the show? Email us at podcasts@fool.com Companies discussed: JPM, CAVA, SG, TXRH Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 20 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

A New Name in Weight-Loss Drugs


Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have soared on GLP-1 weight-loss drugs now Hims & Hers is trying to get in on the action with a more available and affordable option. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Hims & Hers getting into the business of GLP-1 weight loss injections and what the compound market means for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. - A sneaky company thats another winner in the weight-loss market. - Wixs successful pivot to a free-cash-flow orientation, and how the AI wave is pushing the company forward. (14:52) Gym stocks havent worked out for most investors, Ricky Mulvey caught up with Motley Fool analyst Sanmeet Deo to find out why he has cooled on one fast-growing gym franchisor and a space in fitness that is investable. Companies discussed: HIMS, NVO, MCK, LLY, Wix Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 18 May 2024 16:00:00 -0000

Better Investment: Stocks or Real Estate?


So, you want to grow your wealth. Whats the best way to do it? In this special episode of Motley Fool Money, we team up with our friends at the real-estate investing site Bigger Pockets to debate whether stocks or real-estate investing will get you more bang for your buck. Fool analysts Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger are our fighters for stocks. They go up against Bigger Pockets CEO Scott Trench and Dave Meyer, the companys VP of Market Intelligence. Chris HutchinsfromAll the Hacks moderates the conversation. Host: Chris Hutchins Guests: Matt Argersinger, Dave Meyer, Jason Moser, Scott Trench Producers: Kailyn Bennett, Jennifer McCord, Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Exodus Media, Steve Broido Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 17 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Dont Sleep on the Dow Jones


The Dows fresh 40k milestone reminds us that the index isnt all about industrials, and that its caught up with the tech-heavy times. (00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss: - The Dow Jones at 40k, and a look back at the major companies that have led the exchange as its moved from traditional industrials and manufacturing to other industries. - Why the current market environment is helping Walmart reach new customers and leaving Home Depot shoppers on deferral mode. - The latest addition to Warren Buffetts portfolio: Chubb. (19:11) Whole Foods co-founder John Mackey talks through lessons learned about life and business and his upcoming book The Whole Story. (35:02) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Shopify and T. Rowe Price.. Stocks discussed: WMT, HD, CB, BRK.A, BRK.B, GOOG, GOOGL, SHOP, TROW Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, John Mackey Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about the Range Rover Sport at www.landroverusa.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 16 May 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Netflix Scores the NFL


The streamer now has Christmas football games. First, (00:21) Nick Sciple and Ricky Mulvey discuss Netflixs play into live TV and the bundling of streaming services. Plus, they take a quick look at earnings from Walmart. Then, (17:12) Motley Fool Contributor Lou Whiteman joins Mary Long to discuss how airlines and Airbnb are experiencing a cooldown in travel. Companies mentioned: NFLX, DIS, WBD, CMCSA, LUV, DAL, ABNB Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Nick Sciple, Mary Long, Lou Whiteman Engineers: Dan Boyd, Steve Broido Public.com disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 15 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Google Speaks, OpenAI Listens


Step aside, Siri. A new generation of AI voice assistants has arrived. First, (00:21) Asit Sharma and Mary Long dive into todays inflation report and talk through the latest AI offerings from Alphabet and OpenAI. Then, (16:03) Ricky Mulvey asks Jason Hall whether co-CEOS are ever a good idea. Stock Advisor discount for podcast listeners: www.fool.com/asit Companies/Tickers discussed: GOOG, GOOGL, MSFT, BOC, SKYH Host: Mary Long Guests: Asit Sharma, Ricky Mulvey, Jason Hall Engineers: Dan Boyd, Heather Horton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 14 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

The Meme Casino Reopens


One tweet is all it takes to add a few billion dollars in market cap. First, (00:21) Jim Gillies and Ricky Mulvey discuss the surge in short term speculation over meme stocks, and the long-term investment story at Home Depot. Then, (19:05) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp discuss how investors can evaluate exchange traded funds. Companies/Tickers discussed: GME, AMC, HD, SPY, VOO, IJR, VB, SPY, GRMAX Check out the Range Rover Sport at www.landroverusa.com Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Desiree Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 13 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Squarespaces $6.9B Takeover, First of Many?


Private equity has $2.6 trillion in dry powder to put to work, is Squarespace at the top of a long shopping list? (00:21) Jason Moser and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Permira private equitys plans to take website-builder Squarespace private at $6.9B. - The Biden administrations reported plans to raise tariffs on EVs, solar equipment, and medical supplies, and why automakers in China arent too concerned. (14:54) The internet economy is all about eyeballs. Fool analyst Asit Sharma and Ricky Mulvey take a look at Pubmatic, an advertising company creating trillions of impressions per quarter and facing off against some trillion dollar companies. Companies discussed: SQSP, SCHW, PUBM, TTD, MSFT, NFLX Monarch Money free trial offer: www.monarchmoney.com/fool Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma, Ricky Mulvey, Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 12 May 2024 15:00:00 -0000

Lessons From Startups


Ideas are cheap; the people are what matter. Startups face a lot of risk. But research suggests that 65% of startups fail because of one particular problem: people. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Martin Gonzalez, creator of Googles Effective Founders Project, to discuss what public investors can learn from the people problems that plague startups and any other organization. They discuss: How to spot strong leaders. The downside of overconfidence. How company culture affects stock returns. Companies discussed: SPOT Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Martin Gonzalez Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Dez Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 11 May 2024 16:00:00 -0000

A Great First Effort from Apple


Sure, the Apple Vision Pro has some flaws, but its incredible to be in a recording studio with Alicia Keys. Mary Long and Jason Moser checked out the new headset and discuss: - The training and educational use cases for spatial computing. - How Apple and Meta products stack up against each other. - Metas virtual reality strategy. - The strong value proposition for VR training in healthcare. Companies discussed: AAPL, META, GOOG, GOOGL, MSFT, PCOR, ADSK, AXON, ISGR, GMED Host: Mary Long Guest: Jason Moser Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 10 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Its Always About the Forecast


Relatively strong earnings results from Shopify and Roblox were overshadowed by questions about the outlook for the rest of the year and whether consumers will keep up the online shopping and in-game spending.. (00:21) Ron Gross and Andy Cross discuss: - Disneys path to streaming profitability, and the warnings from Shopify and Roblox that growth in the back half of 2024 might be a bit lighter. - Trade Desks relative strength in a tough earnings environment, and Airbnb bracing for some travel slowdown. - How drinkmaker Celsius continues to find the energy for growth. (19:11) Motley Fool Co-founder David Gardner provides some timeless advice for college grads. (27:27) Ron and Andy break down two stocks on their radar: Toast and Trex. Stocks discussed: DIS, SHOP, RBLX, TTD, ABNB, CELH, TREX, TOST Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Andy Cross, Ron Gross, David Gardner, Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 09 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Roblox Hits Roadblock


Wall Street thinks two growth stock prices have gotten a little too high. Plus, we feature a weed company with a lot of cash. (00:21) Kirsten Guerra and Ricky Mulvey break down earnings from Duolingo and Roblox. Then, (16:30) Nick Sciple takes a look at the legal pot business, and a legislative change that could have profound implications on the market. Companies discussed: DUOL, RBLX, GOOGL, GOOG, CRON Public.com disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Kirsten Guerra, Nick Sciple Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 08 May 2024 20:14:38 -0000

This Looks Bad. Look Over Here.


Ubers earnings may seem a little hand-wavy, but there's more to the story. At (00:12) Tim Beyers and Mary Long take a look at earnings from Uber and Toast. Then, (16:34) Alicia Alfiere and Ricky Mulvey ask if AI will kill Chegg, the homework helper. Tickers discussed: UBER, SICP, JOBY, TOST Host: Mary Long Guests: Tim Beyers, Alicia Alfiere, Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 07 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Is Streaming Profitable?


For anyone besides Netflix? First up, (00:21) Jason Moser and Ricky Mulvey break down earnings from Disney and Axon Enterprise. Then, (19:44) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp look at the 60/40 portfolio, and if it still holds up in 2024. Tickers discussed: DIS, AXON, NFLX, GLD Learn more about the Range Rover Sport at www.landroverusa.com Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jason Moser, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick Engineers: Dan Boyd, Desiree Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 06 May 2024 20:32:00 -0000

What Buffett Is Selling and Saying


When Warren Buffett talks, investors listen. We unpack the quotes and commentary from the markets most anticipated annual meeting and check in on the state of Berkshire Hathaway. (00:13) Jim Gillies and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Berkshires past and future succession-- planning. - What Buffetts cash stack and shrinking Apple position might signal about his view of the market and tax policy. - Why investors shouldnt be looking at Berkshire on strictly a total-return basis. Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, AAPL Monarch Money free trial offer: www.monarchmoney.com/fool Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jim Gillies Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 05 May 2024 17:54:12 -0000

More AI = More Cyberthreats


The number of data compromises last year increased by 78% from just 2022, according to the 2023 Annual Data Breach Report. One primary reason for this increase? Artificial intelligence. This Week in Tech co-hosts Tim Beyers and Tim White discuss the rise of cyber threats, and what it means for companies like Microsoft, Crowdstrike, and Zscaler. They also discuss how these breaches work, and what you can do to protect yourself and your family. Members of any Motley Fool Service can watch This Week in Tech at 10:00 am ET on Fridays, or any time at the Fool Live replay hub: https://www.fool.com/premium/live/replayhub?cat=fool-live-full-shows To become a Motley Fool member, head to www.fool.com/signup Companies mentioned: MGM, UHC, MSFT, NVDA, CRWD, OKTA, ZS, T, DDOG, ACN Host: Tim Beyers Guest: Tim White Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 03 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Customer is Key This Earnings Season


Whether it's smartphones or soy lattes, consumers are pickier right now. The companies that are keeping things convenient and creating value offerings are winning, the ones that arent are struggling. (00:21) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss: - Apples sluggish hardware sales and massive $110B buyback program, and Amazons killer cloud and ad segment growth. - CVSs Medicare struggles, Wayfair working out of declines, and Coke keeping things business-as-usual. - The different fates in fast food for Starbucks, Dominos, and McDonalds. (19:11) Ron and Jason break down two stocks on their radar: Wingstop and Crowdstrike. Stocks discussed: AAPL, AMZN, CVS, W, KO, SBUX, DPZ, MCD, CRWD, WING Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Ron Gross Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 02 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Peloton Needs A Wizard


Were talking big moves and Big Oil as earnings season continues. At (00:21) Jason Hall and Deidre Woollard break down Pelotons CEO shift and Big Oils big profits. At (16:40) Tom Chivers, author of Everything Is Predictable, explains how the Bayesian theorem underlies much of modern life and investing. Companies discussed: PTON, SHEL, XOM, COP Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Hall, Tom Chivers Producer: Ricky Mulvey, Chace Przylepa Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 01 May 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Starbucks Faces a Tall Order


Customers are willing to pay up, as long as its convenient. Amazons e-commerce segment proves it, but at Starbucks long lines during peak periods have customers rethinking their orders. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - In the face of revenue declines and struggling comps, are Starbucks shares worth watching? - Amazons eye-popping operating margin, fueled by strength in its ad business, the cloud, and cost-cutting measures. (14:57) The name of the game in food is innovation Mary Long talks with food and beverage analyst David Henkes about McDonalds new approach with CosMcs Companies discussed: SBUX, AMZN, MCD Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Mary Long, David Henkes Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 30 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

PayPal Turns Around (Slowly)


Alex Chriss is still early in his tenure as the CEO of PayPal, but the companys turnaround is already showing green shoots. (00:21) PayPals earnings and why a drop at a specialty insurance company could be a buying opportunity for investors. (16:57) What to do before you meet a financial advisor, and some questions to ask in an initial meeting. Companies discussed: PYPL, INTU, ZM, KNSL Host: Ricky Muvley Guests: Matt Frankel, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 29 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Big Drama At Paramount


Ahead of earnings at Paramount, potential deals and rumors are flying. At 00:21, Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss whats happening at Paramount as well as strong earnings from Dominos Pizza and SoFi. At 16:58, Invitation Homes CEO Dallas Tanner shares his vision for housings future. Companies discussed: SOFI, INVH, DPZ, PARA Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Dallas Tanner Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Chace Pryzlepa, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 28 Apr 2024 16:01:00 -0000

How to Win in Business: Be Right, Be Positive


Executives like to talk about innovation, but how do you spot the difference between world changing stuff and corporate theater? Elliott Parker is the CEO of High Alpha Innovation and author of, The Illusion of Innovation. Parker joins Ricky Mulvey for a conversation about: The power in being contrarian One mega cap that knows how to innovate Why ROIC is not a foolproof metric for investors. Companies discussed: MSFT, IBM, AMZN, NFLX, BRK Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Elliott Parker Producers: Mary Long Engineers: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 27 Apr 2024 16:01:00 -0000

Why Resale is Forever


Winmark doesnt make a lot of noise. The business speaks for itself. Winmark, a resale is a franchisor that owns concepts including Platos Closet, Play It Again Sports, and Once Upon a Child. The company has tripled the return of the S&P 500 since its IPO, and delivered an annualized return of 18% over the past five years. So, investors may want to pay attention to it. Motley Fool Canadas Jim Gillies caught up with Winmark CEO, Brett Heffes for a conversation about: - The growth of Play It Again Sports and a slowdown at Music Go Round. - How Heffes thinks about capital allocation. - Building an everlasting business. Company discussed: WINA Host: Jim Gillies Guest: Brett Heffes Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 26 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Earnings: Chipotle, Tesla, and Alphabet Soar


Were seeing consistently strong results this earnings season, but the market keeps looking forward. It loves Alphabets dividend and Teslas mass market ambitions, but is less sold on Meta commingling AI and the Metaverse. (00:21) Andy Cross and Emily Flippen discuss: - Chipotles stellar comps and future store growth opportunity. - Why Teslas low-priced EV offering has investors overlooking down results. - Alphabet getting in on the dividend game, and the market telling Meta dont spend on AI like that. - What Spotify, Snap, and Roku have to say about the strength of the ad market for 2024. (19:11) Emily and Andy break down two stocks on their radar: Tyler Technologies and Visa. Stocks discussed: CMG, TSLA, GOOG, GOOGL, META, MSFT, SPOT, SNAP, ROKU, V, TYL. Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Emily Flippen, Andy Cross Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 25 Apr 2024 20:50:00 -0000

Meta Slows Its Roll


At (00:21) David Meier and Deidre Woollard discuss IBMs potential acquisition of HashiCorp and how it helps grow the business. And what was it about Metas earnings that gave the market pause? Companies discussed: IBM, HCP, META, NOW, CMG, ALGN Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: David Meier Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 24 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Tesla: Carmaker Now, Robotaxi Future


Teslas current-state results werent strong, but a low-price EV and the companys robotaxi unveiling in August have investors excited. At (00:21) we talk Teslas down results and up market reaction, how Boeings backlog insulates it from short-term delivery hiccups, and why Visas results are boring and thats a-ok. Companies discussed: TSLA, BA, V Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 23 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

These Investments Fight Inflation


A primary reason to invest now? Have money to buy stuff decades later. The stock market can help you with that goal, but so can government bonds. At (00:21), we look at earnings from General Motors and Spotify. At (15:44), we cover the reasons that inflation is sticky, and what investors can do about it. Companies discussed: GM, SPOT, DAL, SGOV, Dividend report link: www.fool.com/2024dividends Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Bill Barker, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 22 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

A 216% Premium for Home Tours


Matterport, a former SPAC, finds a new home. (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Why this week may be crucial for the market. - If cable companies need to worry about Verizon. - What CoStar really sees in Matterport. (13:05)Sanmeet Deo and Ricky Mulvey break down On Holdings appeal for shoe lovers and stockholders. Companies discussed: ONON, CSGP, MTTR, VZ, TMUS, CMCSA Claim your Epic discount: www.fool.com/epic Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Sanmeet Deo, Ricky Mulvey, Jason Moser Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 21 Apr 2024 15:00:00 -0000

A Shift to Hard Assets


Investors have big dreams about the future of artificial intelligence, and its going to take a lot of energy to get there. Lawrence McDonald is a risk consultant, the founder of The Bear Traps Report, and the co-author of How to Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy. Deidre Woollard caught up with McDonald for a conversation about: - What an aging American population means for stocks. - How natural gas companies benefit from a growing global middle class. - The case for adding commodities to a retirement portfolio. Companies discussed: NVDA, INTC, TSMC, BTC, AA, RIO, CHK Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Lawrence McDonald Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Tim Sparks, Desiree Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 20 Apr 2024 16:01:00 -0000

Before You Open an Investment Account


You just got a job and want to start investing. Now what?Robert Brokamp and Matt Frankel break down the choices facing new investors, and give some advice for long-term success. They discuss: - The three things needed to invest in individual stocks. - How to select a brokerage. - The fees that investors will encounter, and how to avoid some of them. Companies mentioned: HOOD, SOFI, SCHW Host: Robert Brokamp Guest: Matt Frankel Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 19 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Strong Earnings Results, Mixed Reactions


Earnings are in full swing! Weve got updates from the industry leaders in streaming, banking, chips and real estate but strong numbers arent always turning into positive market reactions. (00:21) Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger discuss: - Whether investors should be buying Netflixs pay attention to this, not that. - What Taiwan Semis results say about chips and why investors are up on United Health despite the companys recent cybersecurity issues.. - The state of banking and brokerages, and why the current macro is confusing for everyone, even management at industrial REIT Prologis. (19:11) Malcolm Ethridge, CFP and author of Financial Independence Doesn't Happen by Accident, walks through money conversations you should be having during financial literacy month and why hes watching cybersecurity. (35:42) Ron and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Five Below and UPS. Stocks discussed: NFLX, TSMC, UNH, BAC, GS, MS, SCHW, PLD, BUG, CIBR, UPS, FIVE Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Matt Argersinger, Ron Gross, Malcolm Ethridge Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 18 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

The Treasure Hunt Economy


Are little luxuries are still scoring with consumers? (00:21) Sanmeet Deo and Deidre Woollard discuss: - How smartphone and EV demand are impacting Taiwan Semiconductor. - Japans place in the tech race. - More uses for weightloss drugs. (13:39)Mary Long and Deidre Woollard explore the allure of the treasure hunt economy. Companies discussed: FIVE, DLTR, DG, TJX, TSM, ASML, LLY, NVO Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Sanmeet Deo, Mary Long Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Public.com disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 17 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Reminder: The Chip Biz is Cyclical


The boom is on for chip buyers and sellers, but demand is lighter further up the supply chain. And United results showing the skies look friendly for airline stocks. (00:21) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Why ASMLs earnings show a slowdown in investment in chip manufacturing. - United Airlines strong quarterly results, and how the airline is handling fleet issues caused by Boeing. - What to watch from enterprise software companies as they report later in earnings season. (15:19) Deidre Woollard chats up with Steven Jacobs, the president of online commercial real estate exchange Ten-X, about who is actually buying office buildings right now? Companies discussed: ASML, UAL, BA Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Deidre Woollard, Steven Jacobs Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 16 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Big Banks and Big Screens


Dealmaking is back, and the banks are loving it. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Ricky Mulvey discuss: - Why Bank of Americas $1.5 billion in net charge-offs can be forgiven by investors. - A long comeback for wealth management at Merrill Lynch. - IMAXs cash flow story and the future of movie theaters. Plus, (16:33) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer listener questions about tracking investments, leveraged shares, and life insurance. Stocks/tickers mentioned: BAC, MS, IMAX, AMZU, NVDU, SOXL Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Got a question for the show? Email us at podcasts@fool.com. Podcast episode of The Town with IMAX CEO Rich Gelfond: https://www.theringer.com/2024/4/11/24126970/hollywood-imax-dependency-movie-theater-sales Public.com disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 15 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

The Treat Yourself Economy Rolls On


Retail numbers tell the story of a strong consumer. (00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Retail sales numbers and what people are and arent buying. - What drives good numbers for Goldman Sachs. - Charles Schwabs bounce-back quarter. (14:24)David Meier interviews Fluence Energy CEO Julian Nebreda on opportunities in the energy storage industry. Companies discussed: FLNC, SCHW, GS, HD, LOW, DNUT, PLAY Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Julian Nebreda, David Meier, Bill Barker Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 14 Apr 2024 16:01:00 -0000

Braze Blazes Ahead


You know the saying: keep your friends close, keep your customers closer. Bill Magnuson is the Chairman, CEO, and co-founder of Braze, a customer engagement platform that works with some of Businesss biggest names. Fool Analyst Tim Beyers caught up with Magnuson for a conversation about: Brazes origin story. The power of personalized marketing. The companys latest results, and its plans to create even more value in the future. Companies discussed: BRZE Host:Tim Beyers Guest: Bill Magnuson Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 13 Apr 2024 16:01:00 -0000

SBF Goes to Jail


Sam Bankman-Fried is heading to prison for 25 years. Bitcoin is nearing an all-time high. What even is crypto anymore? Zeke Faux is the author of Number Go Up: Inside Cryptos Wild Rise and Staggering Fall. He returns to Motley Fool Money to join Ricky Mulvey for a conversation about: FTXs inevitable decline. The resurgence of meme coins, and smaller stories in the crypto space. The side effects of creating cryptocurrencies. Tickers discussed: BTC, META, DOGE, TSCO, GME, AMC, USDT, SLP, WIF Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Zeke Faux Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 12 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Everything at Highs: Tech, Rates, Gold and Cocoa


Conventional theory says stocks, debt, and hedges shouldnt all be at highs at the same time what does it mean for investors? (00:21) Emily Flippen and Matt Argersinger discuss: - The latest inflation numbers and whether the Fed will actually cut rates in 2024. - The oddity of stocks, interest rates, and alternative hedges like commodities all being up at the same time. - Amazon CEO Andy Jassys annual letter, and why Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are all doing what they can to reduce reliance on Nvidia in AI. . (19:11) Motley Fool Moneys Deidre Woollard talks with Barbara Kellerman author of Leadership from Bad to Worse: What Happens When Bad Festers about bad leaders, and bad followers, and lessons we can borrow from Volkswagons emissions scandal. (28:33) Emily and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Hershey and Coupang. Stocks discussed: AMZN, META, MSFT, NVDA, CPNG, HSY Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Emily Flippen, Matt Argersinger, Deidre Woollard, Barbara Kellerman Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 09 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Ok, Cloud


Google is the latest tech company to host a conference full of AI pronouncements. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Why the market is smiling on Alphabet lately. - How Googles announcements show the companys AI ambitions. - What Blackstone might buy next. (17:26)Robert Brokamp interviews Steve Chen, the CEO of NewRetirement, on what savers often miss about retirement. Companies discussed: GOOG, GOOGL, BX, MSFT, AZMN Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Ricky Mulvey, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 08 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

If You Build It, Chips Will Come


Tawain Semiconductors plans for Arizona factories just got a bit bigger. (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The ambitious plans for U.S. semiconductor growth. - The challenges of building factories in Arizona. - If Jamie Dimon is the new Warren Buffett. (13:18) Deidre Woollard talks with Ron Gross for a look inside the minds of activist investors. Companies discussed: MTCH, INTC, TSM, JPM Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 07 Apr 2024 17:00:00 -0000

Grindr Goes Beyond Dating


How do you grow a business where a customers success often means they leave your product? George Arison is the CEO of Grindr, a dating app and social media offering for LGBTQ+ individuals. Dylan Lewis caught up with Arison for a conversation about: Grindrs growth story. Looking beyond dating for platform engagement. What companies can lose in a remote-only environment. Companies discussed: GRND, MTCH, BMBL, NFLX, SPOT, UBER Host: Dylan Lewis Guest: George Arison Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 06 Apr 2024 16:01:00 -0000

Intangible Greatness


James Rhee is the former CEO of Ashley Stewart, a professor, entrepreneur, and the author of red helicoptera parable for our times: lead change with kindness (plus a little math). Mary Long caught up with Rhee for a conversation about: - An unlikely turnaround at a retailer serving plus sized, moderate income black women. - Being kind versus being nice. - When liabilities can become assets and vice versa. - Real world goodwill versus the accounting version. Companies mentioned: NVDA Host: Mary Long Guest: James Rhee Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 05 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Four Rules for Using AI


Instead of the age of artificial intelligence, investors might be better off thinking of this as the age of co-intelligence. We dig into how you can embrace AI and put it to use. (00:21) Jason Moser and Bill Mann discuss: - Why Disney and Nelson Peltz were both winners in the companys board fight. - Alphabets rumored interest in marketing software provider Hubspot. - Spotifys price hikes, the strength in Levis direct to consumer model, and a true blank check business. (19:11) Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick breaks down his four rules for using AI, and other tips from his new book Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI. (34:20) Jason and Bill break down two stocks on their radar: Cognex and WD40. Stocks discussed: DIS, GOOG, GOOGL, HUBS, SPOT, LEVI, DJT, WDFC, CGNX Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Bill Mann, Ethan Mollick Engineers: Desiree Jones, Dan Boyd Disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 04 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Is Lemonade A Lemon?


Investors soured on the insurance company. But, what happens if the business can become cash flow positive? (00:21)Yasser El-Shimy and Deidre Woollarddiscuss: - Why big trucks might become less popular. - If slowing EV production makes long-term sense. - The power demands of artificial intelligence. (16:17)Matt Frankel and Ricky Mulvey take a look at insurance tech company Lemonade and if it can go from sour to sweet. Companies discussed: LMND, MET, BYD, GM, F, TSLA, GOOG, GOOGL, CEG Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Yasser El-Shimy, Matt Frankel, Ricky Mulvey Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Disclosure: A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 03 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

The Chip Biz: Taiwan and Intel


The chip industry is center stage this week Intels foundry losses now might prove negligible as the world looks to diversify beyond Taiwan. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - The 7.5-magnitude earthquake in Taiwan affecting TSMC and highlighting global dependence on the region for chipmaking. - Our first look into Intels foundry business, and why well probably see more pushes into manufacturing. - Bob Iger and Disneys board victory, and where the company should be focused now. (14:36) An overlooked benefit of AI? Weather prediction. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Spire Global CEO Peter Platzer to discuss the companys partnership with Nvidia and unique uses for space satellite data. Companies discussed: TSMC, INTC, DIS, SPIR, NVDA, CAT Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Peter Platzer, Ricky Mulvey Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 02 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Valuation Matters


Value and growth investors dont need to be at odds. Theyre all playing the same game. (00:21) Jim Gillies and Ricky Mulvey discuss: - Payments company, Nuvei, going private and the deal's winners and losers. - A demand shift to hybrid vehicles. - What Teslas deliveries miss means for the carmaker. (16:39) Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick take a look at a couples real-life finances. Companies discussed: NVEI, PYPL, ADYE.Y, TSLA Link to a discounted Stock Advisor subscription: www.fool.com/signup Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Tyler Satre, Cristen Oehrig Satre Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 01 Apr 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Top Stocks to Buy Right Now (April 1 Edition)


With the market hitting new highs, which stocks can go the distance? (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Another big stumble for AT&T. - Why 3Ms spin-off might be worth watching. - Whats driving gold prices. (17:01)Asit Sharma and Ricky Mulvey discuss stocks that can beef up your portfolio, in a special April 1st themed conversation. Companies discussed: T, SOLV, MMM, UPS, PATH, AMD Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Asit Sharma, Erin Karney Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 31 Mar 2024 16:01:00 -0000

David Gardner on Financial Freedom, AI, and Basketball


Who better to call on April Fools Eve than our Chief Rule Breaker and Co-founder, David Gardner? Dylan Lewis caught up with Gardner for a conversation about: - Loss aversion and Rule Breaker investing - The 2nd Anniversary of The Motley Fool Foundation. - And play a special March Madness-themed Market Cap Game Show. Stocks mentioned: NVDA, AMZN Host: Dylan Lewis Guest: David Gardner Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 30 Mar 2024 16:00:00 -0000

To LEO and Beyond


Tom Vice is the CEO of Sierra Space, a company thats trying to build an economy in low-Earth orbit (LEO), a mere 250 miles above our heads. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Vice for a conversation about the future of space commercialization. They discuss: - The magic of microgravity, and its impact on everything from biotech and batteries to chemistry and computing. - Rent in low-Earth orbit. - Defense systems and the hope of a space-based McDonalds Effect. Companies discussed: MRK, PFE, MRNA, NVDA Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Tom Vice Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 29 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Can a New CEO Fix Boeing?


Boeing CEO David Calhoun is stepping down who can step in to fix the companys engineering woes and a culture issues? (00:21) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss: - Boeings hunt for a new CEO, and the difficulty of shifting company culture. - Big deals helping Home Depot corner the professionals market and Johnson and Johnson dive deeper into medtech. - McCormicks strong earnings, and Amazons continued investment in AI. (19:11) Motley Fool Analyst Sanmeet Deo caught up with Elf Beauty CEO Tarang Amin about the beauty brands social strategy and the unconventional waysits scooping up market share from older competitors. (30:39) Jason and Emily break down two stocks on their radar: Masimo and Mastercard. Stocks discussed: BA, HD, JNJ, MKC, AMZN, ELF, LRLCY, RBLX, AAPL Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Emily Flippen, Sanmeet Deo, Tarang Amin Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 28 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Betting On Big Remodel


Home Depot buys a distribution network for landscaping, roofing and pools. (00:14) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Why Home Depot is buying a distribution network. - The cyclical nature of home remodeling. - If RHs lofty goals are attainable. (13:34)As a tribute to Daniel Kahneman, we revisit his 2013 conversation with Morgan Housel Companies discussed: HD, RH Claim your Epic discount:www.fool.com/epic Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Bill Barker, Morgan Housel, Daniel Kahneman Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 27 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Bridges and Digital Toll Roads


Merchants are going to be taking a bigger cut of credit card swipes, what does it mean for VIsa and Mastercard? (00:21) Bill Mann and Dylan Lewis discuss: - The tragic Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore and how it affects the port and the companies with goods going in and out of it. - Visa and Mastercards $30B settlement with merchants over interchange fees. - A curious crypto story with Nilam Resources. (12:09) Tech insider Kara Swisher joins Deidre Woollard to talk about her new best-seller Burn Book and how a tech CEO helped her kids use social media a little less. Companies discussed: V, MA Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Bill Mann, Deidre Woollard, Kara Swisher Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 26 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

NAR Settlement: Real Estates Potential Winners And Losers


The National Association of Realtors settled a lawsuit that could dramatically change the way homes are sold. (00:21) Nick Sciple and Ricky Mulvey discuss: - How the settlement could impact realtors and traditional brokerages. - The potential effect on Redfins growth story. - Why CoStar may be a winner in the shake-up. Plus, (16:50) Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick discuss a critical piece of financial planning that can help any family. Link to receive the 3 Dividend Stocks report: www.fool.com/2024dividends Companies discussed: RDFN, Z, ZG, COMP, RMAX, CSGP Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Nick Sciple, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 25 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

The Long Goodbye


Boeings CEO is moving on, just not quite yet. (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The ins and outs of Boeings CEO search. - Why Masimo may spin out its consumer division. - If Elliott Management can make Match soar. (16:21)IWG CEO Mark Dixon explores the opportunity his company sees in the global shift toward hybrid work. Companies discussed: IWG, BA, MASI, MTCH, PYPL, ETSY Claim your Epic discount: www.fool.com/epic Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Mark Dixon Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Chace Pryzlepa, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 24 Mar 2024 15:00:00 -0000

The Dividend Returns


For decades, dividends have been out of style. History suggests that may soon change. Daniel Peris is a trained historian, a portfolio manager, and the author of many investing books, including his latest, The Ownership Dividend. Deidre Woollard caught up with Peris to talk about why he believes were about to witness a resurgence of dividend investing. They also discuss: The coming return of the cash nexus. Semantics, and how academic finance differs from a real-world balance sheet. Why free cash flow is king. Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Daniel Peris Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Chace Pryzlepa, Tim Sparks Companies discussed: META, CRM, BA, FHI Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 23 Mar 2024 16:01:00 -0000

Does F1 Need Netflix?


The Netflix show Drive to Survive completely changed the sport of motor racing. But Formula Ones story begins long before the streamer stepped in. Joshua Robinson and Jonathan Clegg are sports reporters at the Wall Street Journal and co-authors of the new book, The Formula: How Rogues, Geniuses, and Speed Freaks Reengineered F1 into the Worlds Fastest Growing Sport. Ricky Mulvey caught up with them both to discuss: How a used car dealer became a global entertainment magnate. Why the underdog never seems to win in racing. The inseparability of Ferrari and F1. Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jonathan Clegg, Joshua Robinson Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Rick Engdahl Companies discussed: LSXMA, FWON.A, FWON.B, FWON.K, RACE, MBGY.Y, NFLX, AAPL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 22 Mar 2024 21:17:00 -0000

FTC vs. Apples Walled Garden


For years Apple has claimed its app store and ecosystem is meant to protect its users. The FTC isnt so sure. (00:19) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss: - The FTCs suit against Apple, and why it probably means years of lawyer fees and distraction for Apple. - Chipotles 50-for-1 stock split and the market reaction to Reddits debut. - Earnings from Chewy, Nike, Lululemon, and Accenture. (18:51) Motley Fool contributor Brian Feroldi breaks down Reddits S-1 and the major risks facing the the self-proclaimed Front page of the internet (33:47) Emily and Jason break down two stocks on their radar: Pinduoduo and TopGolf Callaway. Stocks discussed: AAPL, CMG, RDDT, CHWY, NKE, LULU, ACN, PDD, MODG Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Emily Flippen, Brian Feroldi Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Austin Morgan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 21 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

A Denim Moat


Getting into the jeans business is harder than it may seem. (00:13) David Meier and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Chewys customer growth problem. - If Chewy is the future of veterinary care. - The picks and shovels play behind sports betting. (14:42)Mary Long interviews Lauren Sherman, fashion reporter for Puck on two retailers looking for a turnaround. Companies discussed: CHWY, SRAD, GES, GAP Claim your Epic discount: www.fool.com/epic Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: David Meier, Mary Long, Lauren Sherman Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 20 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Split Your Burrito and Your Stock


Chipotles epic run makes it the latest big name to split its stock, we talk about why its good for the options market and why Chipotlanes and breakfast are still huge levers for CMG. (00:13) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Chipotles historic 50-for-1 stock split and why the burrito-maker still has plenty of growth ahead of it. - Apple and Google-parent Alphabets talks to bring Gemini into the iPhone, and why its a no-brainer for both businesses. (13:48) Motley Fool Moneys Mary Long caught up with Lauren Sherman, a fashion correspondent at Puck to talk about Abercrombie and Fitchs turnaround and epic 2023. Companies discussed: CMG, AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, ANF Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Mary Long, Lauren Sherman Engineers: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Nvidia Sells Chips Like Pancakes


The chip designer unveiled a bigger and faster graphics processing unit, but the market isnt cheering the announcement. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Ricky Mulvey discuss: - The advancements in Nvidias new Blackwell GPU. - If any competitors are closing in on the tech giant. - Nvidias plays in humanoid robots, self-driving cars, and weather forecasting. Plus, (16:14) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer listener questions about lending out shares, activist investors, and Social Security. Stock Advisor discount link for podcast listeners: www.fool.com/asit Got a question for the show? Email us at podcasts@fool.com Companies discussed: NVDA, INTC, AMD, GOOG, GOOG, AMZN Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 18 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Meet The New Kids


Deckers Outdoor and Super Micro Computer enter the S&P 500. (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - What it means to join the S&P 500. - The brands driving Deckers Outdoors growth. - Why an EV blunder may have cost Hertzs CEO his job. (16:06)Daniel Newman, CEO of the Futurum Group, explains what to watch for when it comes to the Magnificent Seven. Companies discussed: DECK, CROX, NVDA, SMCI, HTZ, TSLA Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Daniel Newman Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Chace Przylepa, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 17 Mar 2024 16:01:00 -0000

As Luck Would Have It


In investing, youre always searching for a pot of gold. But sometimes, luck has other plans. Nick Sciple, Jim Gillies, and Emily Flippen got together on an episode of our members-only livestream for a conversation about the role of luck in investing. In this selection from that conversation, they discuss: Being early to trends, and lucky to sell The importance of journaling Time horizons, and what it means for stocks to be up for sale every day. To learn more about Stock Advisor, our flagship investing service, visit: www.fool.com/emily Host: Nick Sciple Guests: Jim Gillies, Emily Flippen Producer: Mac Greer Engineers: Rick Engdahl Companies discussed: BCE, RY, NFLX, GPRO, AMZN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 16 Mar 2024 16:01:00 -0000

The Power of Place


Younger generations want more experiences and less stuff. Thats a problem for retailers. Deidre Woollard caught up with Kevin Ervin Kelley, architect, experience designer, and the author of Irreplaceable: How to Create Extraordinary Places that Bring People Together. They discuss: - The evolution of grocery stores, and how regional players can compete. - Why direct-to-consumer brands have a scaling problem. - How Harley Davidson stores became a social destination. Company discussed: HOG Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Kevin Ervin Kelley Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Desire Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 15 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

AI Gives and AI Takes


AI has been a boon for Oracles cloud business, but its also creating a lot of questions for Adobe. (00:21) Andy Cross and Matt Argersinger discuss: - The National Association of Realtors agreeing to over $400M in fines and to eliminate its commission rules. - Why AI is pushing Oracle up and Adobe down after earnings. - The numbers behind Williams-Sonomas 18% spike, Kevin Planks return to Under Armour, and Ultas wild shrink story, (19:11) Motley Fool Moneys Ricky Mulvey catches up with Bloomberg entertainment reporter Lucas Shaw, for a look into the business of streaming, the power of incentives, and corporate infighting at Paramount.. (34:01) Andy and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Equity Commonwealth and Landstar Systems. Stocks discussed: RDFN, Z, ADBE, ORCL, WSM, UA, UAA, ULTA, LSTR, EQC Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Andy Cross, Matt Argersinger, Ricky Mulvey, Lucas Shaw Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 14 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Under Armour CEO Walks The Plank


The old CEO is the new CEO at the athletic brand, but can he turn the ship around? (00:21) Jason Hall and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Why Kevin Plank is back in the CEO seat at Under Armour. - What makes Dicks Sporting Goods so resilient. - The making of a perfect storm for homebuilders. (15:42)Bill Mann talks to Pagaya CEO Gal Krubiner about using AI to change the world of fintech. Companies discussed: LEN, PGY, DKS, UA, UAA Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Gal Krubiner, Bill Mann, Jason Hall Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Kyle Carruthers, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 13 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

From 40-Bagger to Flatliner


NYCBs $1B cash infusion should steady the struggling bank, but dont expect Fools to be jumping into the stock. And Family Dollars footprint gets a bit smaller. (00:21) Matt Frankel and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Family Dollars plans to close almost 1,000 locations over the next few years and what it says about the state of discount retail and real estate. - New York Community Banks cash infusion and reverse stock split and why its still not enough to get Matt interested. - The banks to watch instead. (13:50) Deidre Woollard and Motley Fool analyst Kirsten Guerra dive into Duolingo and how a little bit of its marketing spend has driven a whole lot of revenue growth. Companies discussed: DLTR, NYCB, DOUL Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Matt Frankel, Deidre Woollard, Kirsten Guerra Engineers: Desiree Jones, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 12 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

BMWs Kinder Egg Strategy


Why does ASML want to leave its home country? (00:21) Bill Mann and Ricky Mulvey discuss: - A growth problem for the European tech giant. - BMWs ability to make a profit on electric vehicle sales. - Product problems for BYD Auto. Plus, (17:20) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk to a couple about their real life money questions, and one financial item that should be on every familys to-do list. Companies discussed: ASML, BMWYY, TSLA, BYDDY NYTimes Article about BMW: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/business/bmw-electric-vehicles.html Visit our sponsor Monarch Money: Go to www.monarchmoney.com/FOOL for an extended 30-day free trial. Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Emily Williamson, Paul Ballas Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 11 Mar 2024 20:00:00 -0000

Clean Energy Solutions, Profitability Questions


Stem CEO John Carrington is full speed ahead on the clean energy transformation. (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Don Julios Oscars moment. - If Oscar buzz is still powerful for movie makers. - How Reddit is more like X than Pinterest. (15:49)Ricky Mulvey interviews John Carrington, CEO of energy solutions company Stem on the companys business model and path to operating profitability. Companies discussed: DIS, PINS, SNAP, META, STEM Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: John Carrington, Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey Producers: Dylan Lewis, Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Mary Long, Rick Engdahl Special Thanks: Jason Hall Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 10 Mar 2024 16:01:00 -0000

The Skys The Limit


Sky Harbour sees massive opportunities in the world of private aviation. Bill Mann, Director of Small-Cap Research at The Motley Fool interviews Tal Keinan, CEO of Sky Harbour, a company that operates airplane hangars around the United States. They discuss: How Sky Harbour is building home bases for planes. The massive growth in private aviation and why its poised to continue. Turning underutilized airports into hubs. Companies discussed: SKYH, GD, BDRBF, FDX Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Tal Keinan, Bill Mann Producer: Dylan Lewis Engineers: Kyle Carruthers, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 09 Mar 2024 17:01:00 -0000

A One-Night Tenant


Deidre Woollard and Matt Argersinger check in on the world of hospitality real estate including Airbnb as well as two real estate investment trusts with big hotels and even bigger ambitions.They discuss: If Airbnb can take a greater share of the hospitality market. Why sports and the Sphere are a winning combination for Las Vegas. How large-group travel provides a safety net for Ryman Hospitality. Companies discussed: VICI, RHP, ABNBHost: Deidre Woollard Guest: Matt Argersinger Producer: Dylan Lewis Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 08 Mar 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Death, Taxes, Retail Membership Programs


Back on track with inventory, Target plans its next phase of growth with an industry mandate: the membership program. (00:21) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss: - Crowdstrikes eye-popping quarter and the strength of cybersecurity spend. - Targets rebound and how it might get back to growth. - The stories behind rough earnings from Foot Locker, Campbells, and Nordstrom. (19:11) Motley Fool Moneys go-to film critic Nell Minow provides an Oscars preview, update on the state of the movie biz and some of her favorite films from 2023. (34:41) Ron and Jason break down two stocks on their radar: UiPath and Titan. Stocks discussed: CRWD, TGT, TWLO, FL, CPB, JWN, TWI, PATH Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser, Nell Minow Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 07 Mar 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Can This Bank Be Saved?


Big pockets have weighed in at New York Community Bank, can they turn the ship around? (00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Why New York City Bank needed a deep-pocketed rescue. - Abercrombie & Fitchs incredible rise. - American Eagles tough bet on logistics. (18:55)Mary Long and Motley Fool contributor Matt Frankel set sail for a tour of cruise companies and where investors might find enticing prospects. Companies discussed: RCL, NCLH, CCL, AEO, SHOP, NYCB, ANF, AMZN Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Mary Long, Matt Frankel, Bill Barker Producer: Dylan Lewis Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Thank you to NordVPN -- get an exclusive NordVPN deal here https://nordvpn.com/MOTLEYFOOL Its risk- free with Nords 30-day money back guarantee! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 06 Mar 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Soaring Stocks and EVTOLs


Target and Crowdstrike are flying after earnings, and in a few years you might be able to take off in an EVTOL. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Target finally finding its footing, and how the company is turning to loyalty programs for more growth. - Crowdstrikes results showing enterprise spend on cybersecurity isnt slowing down. - Bitcoins spot-ETF fueled rise to all-time highs. (16:53) Motley Fool Moneys Deidre Woollard talks with analyst Sanmeet Deo about the highly speculative, highly futuristic world of EVTOLs and personal air travel. Companies discussed: TGT, CRWD, BTC, JOBY, ACHR Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Deidre Woollard, Sanmeet Deo Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 05 Mar 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Trouble or Turnaround Plays?


We try to separate the falling knives from the buying opportunities. (00:21) Jim Gillies and Dylan Lewis discuss: - NYCBs credit downgrade, material weaknesses, and current struggles. - Stitch Fixs latest earnings, and whether the clothing company could be a turnaround play. - Why Jim likes the prospects for beat-up fintech company PROG holdings. (14:46) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk about trends in travel and tips if youre trying to avoid the crowds and fees next time you step on a plane. Companies discussed: NYCB, SFIX, PROG Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 04 Mar 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Consumers, Choice, And Apple


The European Commission is the latest to take aim at Apples app store. (xx:xx) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Why Spotify and Apple are engaging in a new music streaming battle. - If Spirit Airlines will seek another buyer. - Why the latest go-private offer may be good news for Macys shareholders. (18:03)Ricky Mulvey and Lou Whiteman cover the state of play for airline stocks. Companies discussed: AAPL, SPOT, JBLU, M, UAL, DAL, AAL, LUV, ULCC, AER Claim your Epic discount: www.fool.com/epic Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Lou Whiteman Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 03 Mar 2024 16:00:00 -0000

Whats Up With Super Micro?


When a stock goes parabolic, theres more to the story than business performance. Mary Long caught up with Tim Beyers and Kirsten Guerra, advisors on The Motley Fools Interconnected Opportunities investing service to discuss: - Super Micros real business. - The original bull thesis for the data center service company. - Super Micros relationship with Nvidia. - Whats behind the stocks recent performance. Stocks discussed: SMCI, NVDA, DELL, HPQ Host: Mary Long Guests: Tim Beyers, Kirsten Guerra Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 02 Mar 2024 17:01:00 -0000

The Small Cap Show


With small caps, come great thrills. What about great rewards? Ricky Mulvey caught up with Bill Mann, a lead analyst at the Fool and our Director of Small-Cap Research, for a primer on small-cap investing. They check in on a handful of different small caps and discuss: If the disappearance of the small-cap premium is a win for investors. How to navigate environments with limited feedback. The value (or lack thereof) of book value. Tickers discussed: WINA, COST, DDS, BOC, FVRR, ASR, BRK.A, BRK.B Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Bill Mann Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 01 Mar 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Tech in 2024: AI and Dividends


The AI race heats up with Elon Musks lawsuit against OpenAI and Google Geminis rough week. And Salesforce joins Meta in the Big Tech dividend club. (00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss: - Elon Musks lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman -.Apple putting an end to Project Titan and its automotive ambitions. - Earnings updates from Axon and Okta, and a new dividend from Salesforce. (19:11) Motley Fool Moneys Deidre Woollard caught up with analyst Karl Thiel about the role of patents in pharmaceuticals, and the dreaded patent cliff looming for roughly 200 big-time drugs over the next decade. (33:06) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Palo Alto Networks and eBay. Stocks discussed: TSLA, AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, AXON, OKTA, CRM, PANW, EBAY. Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Deidre Woollard, Karl Thiel Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 29 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Platforms, Platforms, Platforms


For Snowflake, Okta, and Snowflake, growth may come from more products not just more customers. (00:21) David Meier and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The power of a great CFO. - What a change in leadership means for Snowflake. - Why growing revenue isnt just about new customers. (17:00)Gary Stevenson, author of The Trading Game, explains what it was like to be one of the worlds top financial traders. Companies discussed: CRM, OKTA, SNOW, C Claim your Epic discount: www.fool.com/epic Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: David Meier, Gary Stevenson Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Desiree Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 28 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Greed is Short


When a struggling business comes out with good news, it usually spells trouble for the shorts. Just ask those betting against Beyond Meat today. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Apples automotive ambitions Project Titan seemingly being wrapped up, and what it means for the tech company. - Beyond Meats short-squeeze-fueled 40% spike, and why shorts are getting greedy with Beyond and some other companies right now. - Coupangs continued rise as the major player in e-commerce in South Korea. (17:08) Deidre Woollard talks with Carrie Sun, author of the new memoir, Private Equity, for a behind-the-scenes look at life at a hedge fund. Companies discussed: AAPL, BYND, CPNG Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Deidre Woollard, Carrie Sun Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Chace Pryzlepa, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 27 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Earnings for Breakfast, Cereal for Dinner


Zoom has a new growth story. Are investors buying it? (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Bill Barker discuss: - Zooms quarter, and if the company has a moat. - AutoZones international growth. - Wendys plan to test surge pricing. - If cereal is a part of a complete and nutritious dinner. Plus, (18:15) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer listener questions about 403(b)s, UTMAs, and the safety of brokerage platforms. Got a question for the show? Email us at podcasts@fool.com. Companies discussed: ZM, AZO, WEN, KLG, SCHW Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Bill Barker, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 26 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Berkshire After Charlie


Warren Buffetts annual letter points to a steady path ahead. (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Why Berkshire Hathaway doesnt pay a dividend. - If utility businesses are in trouble. - What a mountain of cash means for the insurance business. (17:53)Ken Costa, author of The $100 Trillion Dollar Wealth Transfer,explains how a sea change in wealth could impact the worlds financial future. Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, DPZ, LULU Claim your Epic discount: www.fool.com/epic Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Ken Costa Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Chace Przylepa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 25 Feb 2024 17:01:00 -0000

Charles Duhigg on Supercommunicators


What happens when a group of hedge fund managers share the last time they cried? Charles Duhigg is a Pulitzer prize-winning reporter and a best-selling author. His latest book is Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection. Mary Long caught up with Duhigg for a conversations about: - The habits of Supercommunicators. - How Boeing and Netflix navigated communications crises. - An under-the-radar figure running the technical side of Microsoft. Host: Mary Long Guest: Charles Duhigg Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 24 Feb 2024 17:01:00 -0000

The Dawn of Spatial Computing


Youve probably interacted with large language models. The next version might be large vision models. Cathy Hackl is a futurist, Apple Vision Pro developer, and co-author of the upcoming book Spatial Computing: An AI-Driven Business Revolution. Deidre Woollard caught up with Hackl for a conversation about: - How businesses, like Lockheed Martin and Lowes, are already using spatial computing. - The current challenges developing apps for the Vision Pro - Virtual air rights, digital fashion, and questions about the future of spatial computing. Companies discussed: APPL, U, LMT, LOW, META, GOOG, GOOGL Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Cathy Hackl Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 23 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Its NVIDIAs world and were just living in it!


Earnings season rolls on plus some acquisitions made the news this week: (00:21) Emily Flippen and Andy Cross discuss: - Earnings reports for Nvidia, Etsy, Wayfair, Walmart, Palo Alto Networks, and MercadoLibre - Acquisition roundup: Capital One is acquiring Discovery Financial and Walmart is acquiring Vizio (19:11) Bloomberg reporter, Kurt Wagner talks about Twitter and his new book The Battle for the Bird. (34:25) Emily and Andy break down two stocks on their radar: Grab Holdings and HubSpot Stocks discussed: NVDA, ETSY, W, WMT, PANW, MELI, COF, DFS, GRAB, HUBS Host: Ron Gross Guests: Emily Flippen, Andy Cross, Kurt Wagner Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 22 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

The NVDA Show


What does Nvidias blockbuster quarter signify for the future? (00:21) Tim Beyers and Deidre Woollard discuss: - What is fueling Nvidias growth? - How far the demand for GPUs can stretch. - What concerns Tim about Nvidias capital allocation. Companies discussed: NVDA Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Tim Beyers Producers: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 21 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Is PayPal the Next Meta?


Investors want PayPal to become the next Meta, but its not easy to transform a business. (00:13) David Meier and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The reason behind Palo Alto Networks lowered outlook. - Where the next big cybersecurity threats could come from. - Fubos attempt to sport a sports streaming superpower. (17:12)Matt Frankel and Ricky Mulvey look at Metas rebound and if PayPal could be next for a glow up. Companies discussed: META, PYPL, ADYEY, NVDA, PANW, ZS, CRWD, FUBO, DIS, WBD Claim your Epic discount: www.fool.com/epic Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Matt Frankel, Ricky Mulvey, David Meier Producer: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 20 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Capital One Applies for a Credit Card


Capital One wants Discover for a $35 billion dollar all stock deal. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Jim Gillies discuss: - How a merged Capital One and Discover would compare to the big banks. - The investor reaction to the proposed merger. - Home Depots earnings. - The end of an activist story at a company that makes garden rakes. Plus, (16:47) Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick continue their conversation with Jason Moser and Bill Mann. They cover the stocks that got away and the ones that broke their hearts. EXCLUSIVE NordVPN Deal https://nordvpn.com/motleyfool Try it risk-free now with a 30-day money-back guarantee! Companies discussed: DFS, COF, HD, GFF, UA, LULU, NVDA, TDG, JD, EB, U, IOT, ONON Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Jason Moser, Bill Mann Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Jim Gillies Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 18 Feb 2024 17:00:00 -0000

Harvard Business Prof on Failing Well


Why would Eli Lilly put on a failure party? Deidre Woollard talked about the art of failing with Amy Edmondson, the Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management at the Harvard Business School, and author of Right Kind of Wrong. They discuss: - The complex failure at Boeing. - What to do after something goes wrong. - The problem with move fast and break things. Companies discussed: BA, LLY Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Amy Edmondson Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Chace Przylepa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 17 Feb 2024 17:00:00 -0000

Change Equals Opportunity


Did Netflix kill the video star? James Keyes is the former CEO of Blockbuster and 7-Eleven, and the author of Education is Freedom: The Future Is in Your Hands. Deidre Woollard caught up Keyes to discuss: - What it is like to be a CEO at a company facing bankruptcy. - 7-Eleven and the American Dream. - Blockbusters early streaming play - How AI is changing education. Company discussed: NFLX Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: James Keyes Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 16 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Stock Market Whip Lash


Economic data and earnings season combined for a volatile weak in the stock market. (00:21) Bill Mann and Jason Moser discuss: - The latest inflation numbers and what they mean for investors - Earnings wrap-up for Twilio, Lyft, Airbnb, Shopify and Trade Desk - Nvidias disclosure of its investments and how it impacted stocks (19:11) Corrado Russo shares some thoughts on the international real estate market. (34:09) Bill and Jason break down two stocks on their radar: Fresenius and Home Depot Stocks discussed: TWLO, LYFT, ABNB, SHOP, TTD, SHOP, NVDA, NNOX, ARM, HD, FMS Host: Ron Gross Guests: Bill Mann, Jason Moser, Corrado Russo Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 15 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Winter Chills Spending


Retail numbers fall as some wonder if its more than cold weather holding consumers back. (00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss: - How the retail spending numbers might impact the Fed. - If Stellantis is ready to take on Big EV. - Deeres returns for investors. (17:55)Drew University Professor Chris Andrews shares his thoughts on why some companies are changing their strategies on self-checkout. Companies discussed: WMT, DG, KR, STLA, GM, F, DE Claim your Epic discount: www.fool.com/epic Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Bill Barker, Chris Andrews Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 14 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Lyfts Typ0


Shares of the ride hailing soared more than 60% on a mistake. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Tim Beyers discuss: - Airbnbs $6 billion share buyback. - Lyfts earnings mistake and business fundamentals. - Why Uber and Lyft arent as close as investors may think. Plus, (15:03) Dylan Lewis, Deidre Woollard, and Mary Long join Ricky for a Valentines Day themed roundtable about finding red and green flags for investments. Stocks discussed: ABNB, LYFT, UBER, CNTS, ECL, ULTA, CRM, MELI, TDOC, AAPL Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Tim Beyers, Dylan Lewis, Deidre Woollard, Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 13 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

A Stock To Spice Things Up


Love can be stubborn and so can inflation. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Nick Sciple discuss: - Wall Streets reaction to the latest inflation print. - Shopify acting like a growth stock. - A new partnership for Tiger Woods. Plus, (15:20) Jason Moser and Bill Mann join Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp to share some Valentines Day themed stories about stocks. Stocks discussed: SHOP, GOLF, NKE, CSCO, COST, MKC Get Exclusive NordVPN deal here: www.nordvpn.com/motleyfool Its risk- free with Nords 30-day money back guarantee. Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Nick Sciple, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Bill Mann, Jason Moser Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 12 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Are Big Ads Worth The Spend?


Celebrities, talking cats, and bad animation, did those Big Game ads connect? (00:21) Ricky Mulvey, Dan Boyd and Deidre Woollard discuss: -What brands are looking for from a major spend. -The increasing bifurcation of the watching experience. -If it takes more than a celebrity or three to make a great ad. (19:11)Mary Long and Rick Munarriz compare Match and Bumble and break down the prospects for these two publicly traded matchmakers. Companies discussed: PARA, DIS, PDD, MTCH, BMBL, ETSY, VZ, CGSP, RDFN, MNST Get your 30-day free trial of Monarch Money at www.monarchmoney.com/fool Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Ricky Mulvey, Dan Boyd, Mary Long, Rick Munarriz Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 11 Feb 2024 17:01:00 -0000

The Next Internet


Motley Fool CEO and co-founder Tom Gardner caught up with longtime Fool Contributor Brian Stoffel to talk through Toms fervent belief that AI is the next internet, but better. In this segment from a recent episode of our premium podcast, Stock Advisor Roundtable, Brian and Tom also discuss: The future of fraud detection. How to succeed at thinking clearly. The amorality of big tech companies. To gain access to all episodes of Stock Advisor Roundtable and get two stock picks each month, become a Motley Fool Stock Advisor member here: www.fool.com/signup If youre already a Stock Advisor member, check out other episodes of Stock Advisor Roundtable here. Tickers discussed: NVDA, TSLA, ABNB, SQ, NOW, EQT, META, KNSA Host: Brian Stoffel Guest: Tom Gardner Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 10 Feb 2024 17:00:00 -0000

Stocks for the Big Game


Before the Kansas City Chiefs face off against the San Francisco 49ers, weve got a look at the companies sponsoring the game, and a look at gambling history. Mary Long caught up with Motley Fool Senior Analyst Jason Moser for conversation about the publicly traded companies associated with the game, and find out if any are worth an investors attention. Plus, Mary interviews Dave Schwartz, Ombuds at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas and a student of gambling history. Companies discussed: UAL, BA, ALGT, CPB, PEP, PARA, NFLX Host: Mary Long Guests: Jason Moser, Dave Schwartz Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Tim Sparks, Annie Pope Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 09 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Big Wins: Burrito, Music, Ride-Hailing


The industry defining companies continue to win in fast-casual, music streaming, and transportation. (00:21) Emily Flippen and Matt Argersinger discuss: - Chipotles status as big burrito, and how things look as the stock hits all-time highs. - Spotify and Ubers impressive combo of growth and efficiency. - Earnings updates from Roblox, Simon Property Group, and Enphase. (19:11) Valentines day is coming up to help our listeners in matter gift-giving and money in relationships, Deidre Woollard caught up with Scott Rick a marketing professor at The University of Michigan and the author of "Tightwads and Spendthrifts: Navigating the Money Minefield in Real Relationships." (34:04) Emily and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Starbucks and Snap. Stocks discussed: CMG, SPOT, UBER, RBLX, SPG, ENPH Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Emily Flippen, Matt Argersinger, Deidre Woollard, Scott Rick Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 08 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Disneys New Magic: Saving Money


Disneys quarter included sports, games, and a healthy dose of cutting costs. (00:21) Rick Munarriz and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Disneys ability to cut costs. - How Disney plans to extend its IP into gaming. - ESPNs power moves. (17:33)Kirsten Guerra explores the complicated logistics that drive 1-800-Flowers. Companies discussed: DIS, FLWS, NFLX, FUBO Claim your Epic Bundle discount: fool.com/epic198 Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Rick Munarriz, Kirsten Guerra Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Desiree Jones, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 07 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

No Artificial Sweetener for Uber


Ubers first ever year of profitability comes without any caveats, what should investors make of the everything app at all-time highs? (00:21) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Uber at all-time highs and its ride-hailing dominance. - Chipotles fantastic quarter, and why the companys comps prove you cant bet against big burrito. - Robloxs return to strong user metrics, and why analysts are talking about the companys ad business. (17:02) What might dating profiles look like for stocks? Mary Long caught up with Motley Fool Senior Analyst Asit Sharma to figure out which companies would make a good long-term partners for investors. Companies discussed: UBER, CMG, RBLX, DIS, VRTX, MSTR Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Mary Long, Asit Sharma Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 06 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

See SPOT Run


Investors dont want to wait for interest rate cuts. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma discuss: - Fed Chair Jerome Powells appearance on 60 Minutes, and market reaction. - The commercial real estate risk for the central bank. - Spotifys strategy shift in podcasting. - The audio companys operating loss and big free cash flow number. Plus, (17:02) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp discuss the rise of exchange traded products tracking Bitcoin. Tickers discussed: SPOT, NFLX, HODL Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Asit Sharma, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 05 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Golden Arches Still Gleam


Is chicken the new beef? McDonalds is innovating to please global palates. (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The changing behavior of global eaters. - How McDonalds uses data to drive menu changes. - Snaps proclamation that social media is dead. (16:53)Ricky Mulvey talks to Patrick Badolato, an Associate Professor of Instruction at the University of Texas at Austin McCombs School of Business about what lurks in company footnotes. Companies discussed: UBER, AAPL, MCD, SBUX, CMG, DPZ, SNAP Get your Monarch Money extended 30-day free trial: www.monarchmoney.com/fool Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Patrick Badolato, Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 04 Feb 2024 17:00:00 -0000

Aswath Damodaran: Read Less. Think More.


Want to follow the great investors? Then good luck beating the market. Aswath Damodaran is a Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Bill Mann caught up with Damodaran for a conversation about: - Corporate lifecycles, and why investors should understand them. - The problem with trying to follow great investors. - The fall of research analysts, and the rise of passive investing. - An investing lesson from Charlie Munger. Companies mentioned: TSLA, META, BIRK, DIS, NOK Host: Bill Mann Guest: Aswath Damodaran Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Desire Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 03 Feb 2024 17:00:00 -0000

The War Below


Inside your cell phone, your car, even your leaf blower theres a collection of small, precious minerals making each one work. Ernest Scheyder is a Reuters reporter covering the clean energy transition and author of the new book, The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. Deidre Woollard caught up with Scheyder for a conversation about: Tradeoffs in mining, and why the U.S. is falling behind in the race for precious minerals. Tensions of the clean energy transition. The wacky journey of a junior mining company. Companies mentioned: TSLA, RIO, LAC, LAAC, CVX, F, GM Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Ernest Scheyder Producer: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 02 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Big Tech: AI, Devices, and Dividends


A big week of debuts in tech Apples Vision Pro hits shelves and Meta unveils a new plan for its cash. (00:21) Bill Mann and Jason Moser discuss: - Apples Vision Pro, Metas new dividend, and how the cloud keeps performing for Microsoft and Amazon. - Why New York Community Banks woes dont signal broader banking issues, but the liquidation of Evergrande could mean more pain ahead in China. (19:11) Will Lansing, CEO of FICO, talks through his teams management philosophy, why investors should focus on more than just the companys scoring business, and the way AI and buy-now-pay-later are affecting the credit industry.. (35:35) Jason and Bill break down two stocks on their radar: Estee Lauder and Etsy. Stocks discussed: AAPL, META, MSFT, AMZN, NYCB, EL, ETSY Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Mary Long, Ryan Henderson Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 01 Feb 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Powells No-Action Streak


Prospects for a rapid string of rate cuts may be fading. Thats actually good news. (00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss: - How fewer interest rate cuts may impact businesses. - Pelotons path forward. - Ways streaks are valuable to businesses. (16:47)Mary Long and Matt Frankel discuss the buy now, pay later phenomenon and who it really benefits. Companies discussed: PTON, OKTA, AFRM, PYPL, SQ, WMT Claim your Epic Bundle discount here:www.fool.com/epic198 Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Bill Barker, Matt Frankel, Mary Long Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 31 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Finding AI in Big Tech Earnings


Microsoft continues to live up to its top dog status in its latest report thanks to its cloud segment, and the market is less convinced Alphabet has fully caught up. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Where AI developments are showing up in Microsofts financials. - The concerns over Alphabets ad segment, even as it posts a return to growth. - How the market is grading big tech companies this earnings season. (14:12) Is scanning social media a part of your investment research? Chris Camillo, co-host of "Dumb Money Live" on YouTube, Motley Fool Senior Analyst Sanmeet Deo caught up with Camillo to find out how he does on-the-ground research and the bull case for Tesla's humanoid robots. Companies discussed: MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, TSLA Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Chris Camillo, Sanmeet Deo Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 30 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

3 Ingredients for a Happy Retirement


Flutter Entertainment, the owner of FanDuel, entered the New York Stock Exchange with impressive revenue growth. But, whats driving it? (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Jim Gillies discuss: - What to watch as big tech companies report. - Concentration in the Magnificent Seven. - Questions about Flutter Entertainments share count and debt load. - The switching incentives in sports betting. Plus, (15:26) Robert Brokamp continues his conversation with Michael Finke, a professor of wealth management and the Director for the Granum Center for Financial Security at The American College of Financial Services. They discuss the key factors for a happy retirement. Epic Bundle Discount: www.fool.com/epic198 Gillies post on X: https://twitter.com/JimPGillies/status/1751713645816365089 Companies discussed: AAPL, MSFT, FLUT Hosts: Ricky Mulvey, Robert Brokamp Guests: Jim Gillies, Michael Finke Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 29 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Roomba Go Home


Amazon ends its deal with iRobot leaving the Roomba makers path forward unclear. (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Why Amazon ended the iRobot deal. - Where iRobot could go next. - If Sofi is building the next big bank. (17:12)Eric Siegel, author of The AI Playbook, explains the challenges facing companies looking to adopt artificial intelligence. Companies discussed: AMZN, IRBT, SOFI Claim your Epic Bundle discount here:www.fool.com/epic198 Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Eric Siegel Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 28 Jan 2024 17:00:00 -0000

What Real Estate and Stock Investors Have In Common


Owning companies can help you build wealth. So can real estate. Dave Meyer is the VP of Growth and Analytics at BiggerPockets and the author of Start with Strategy: Craft Your Personal Real Estate Portfolio for Lasting Financial Freedom. Deidre Woollard caught up with Meyer to discuss: - Creating a vision for your investing plan. - The HGTV disease. - Risk mitigation strategies for real estate investors. - A common way that real estate investors start out. Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Dave Meyer Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Chace Przylepa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 27 Jan 2024 17:00:00 -0000

Fool School: The Dividends Show


Growth companies get a lot of the glory in investing. But something seemingly more snooze-worthy is behind a whole lot of wealth creation. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Fool analysts Matt Argersinger and Anthony Schiavone to talk about all things dividends. They discuss: Whether special dividends are really special at all. 2 Dividend Knights and a Cincinnati grocer that may rejoin the same ranks. Why investing is not just about revenue growth. Get your dividends report here: www.fool.com/2024dividends A correction: Texas Roadhouse serves lunch on the weekends. Dividend Knights link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-OPCz9pXOcgFqmbMR3wxREg4O7ws_qWW8RWqKPYn1D4/edit#gid=0 Tickers discussed: TXRH, KR, DDS, SCHD, VIG Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Anthony Schiavone, Matt Argersinger Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 26 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Microsofts Reminder: Dont Sleep on Giants


Microsoft taking the spot as the largest company in the world is a good reminder that sometimes it takes a while for big names to turn it around. We explain why and talk about how IBM and Comcast could have good times ahead. (00:21) Bill Mann and Andy Cross discuss: - Microsoft crossing $3T and surpassing Apple as the largest publicly traded company. - Alibabas co-founders buying up $200M shares, and the state of investing in China. - Teslas tough, but predictable quarter, big subscriber growth from Netflix, and why IBM is a sneaky AI play. (19:11) Motley Fool Moneys Deidre Woollard caught up with Jeff Edison, co-founder and CEO of Phillips Edison & Company, to understand the importance of necessity-based goods in retail, what consumers want right now both in terms of concepts and convenience. (29:49) Bill and Andy talk how Comcast looks more interesting as Peacock grows and two stocks on their radar: Spotify and MercadoLibre. Stocks discussed: MSFT, AAPL, BABA, TSLA, NFLX, IBM, SPOT, MELI, PECO Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Bill Mann, Andy Cross, Deidre Woollard, Jeff Edison Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 25 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Tesla Learns To Surf


(00:21) Asit Sharma and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The promise of Teslas next-generation vehicles. - If Teslas energy business is finally ready for prime time. - How ServiceNows AI push is paying off. (18:51)Tom King and Mary Long talk about Constellation Softwares history of acquisitions. Companies discussed: TSLA, BYD, NOW, CNSWF Claim your Epic Bundle discount here:www.fool.com/epic198 Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Asit Sharma, Mary Long, Tom King Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 24 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Margin Game


Weve got some different takes on the state of semiconductors, and continued signs that Netflix is the king of streaming. (00:21) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss: - ASMLs surging revenue, and why the key semiconductor company has a different outlook for 2024 than its main customer Taiwan Semi. - Huge subscriber gains for Netflix, and the metric that shows the companys streaming supremacy. - Chipotles preparations for peak burrito. (15:00) The trend of stay-at-home is hitting some eatertainment companies. Motley Fool Moneys Ricky Mulvey caught up with Fool contributor Rick Munnariz to talk about one arcade company thats trying to reverse a sales decline. Companies discussed: ASML, NFLX, CMG, PLAY, BOWL, MODG Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Ricky Mulvey, RIck Munarriz Engineers:Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 23 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Netflix Gets Raw


One of the biggest shows on cable is leaving for streaming. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Bill Mann discuss: - Netflixs $5 billion deal with the WWE. - Proctor & Gambles quarter and write down of Gillette. - Why Schwabs deposit flight isnt quite breaking the bank. Plus, (16:12) Robert Brokamp kicks off a two-part interview series with Michael Finke, the Director for the Granum Center for Financial Security at The American College of Financial Services. In part one, they discuss what to consider when planning a withdrawal rate for retirement. Companies discussed: NFLX, TKO, PG, SCHW Hosts: Ricky Mulvey, Robert Brokamp Guests: Bill Mann, Michael Finke Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 22 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

The Ups And Ups Of The Stock Market


Whats behind this latest rally? (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - What could impact the recent rally? - The potential future for Macys. - Sports Illustrated and the value of legacy brands. (19:27)Deidre Woollard interviews Jamil Khan, Chief Strategy and Small Business Officer at H&R Block on where the tax-preparation company is headed next. Companies discussed: M, HRB, NYT, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, SEDG, SFIX Claim your Epic Bundle discount here:www.fool.com/epic198 Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Jamil Khan Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 21 Jan 2024 17:01:00 -0000

Pixar Co-Founder on AI and Storytelling


Ed Catmull is a computer scientist and a force of creativity. He helped bring to life beloved, generation-defining movies like Toy Story, Finding Nemo, Ratatouille, and more. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Catmull to discuss: Being in the business of exponential change AIs potential upheaval of the animation industry How technology and story advance each other Tickers discussed: DIS Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Ed Catmull Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 20 Jan 2024 17:00:00 -0000

JP Morgan Healthcare Conference Highlights


Weight loss drugs are taking center spotlight, but other developing treatments could change how we live. Deidre Woollard caught up with Motley Fool biotech analyst Karl Thiel to discuss: - Biogens next shot at an Alzheimers treatment. - Why companies cant muscle their way into making new molecules. - How NVIDIA could change drug development. - Modernas vaccine strategy Companies discussed: LLY, NVO, GPCR, NVDA, DXCM, NVDA, BIIB, GEHC, MRNA, NVCR, VRTX Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Karl Thiel Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 19 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

The Cointucky Derby


Big-time institutions are jumping into newly-approved Bitcoin spot ETFs, and that could create trouble for some of the bigger players in crypto. (00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss: - Why theres so much cash sitting on the sidelines right now, and why it may or may not work back into the market. - Blackrock and Fidelity getting in on the newly available Bitcoin spot ETFs, and how they could create problems for Coinbase. - Earnings updates from industry leaders Prologis, Taiwan Semiconductor, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. (19:11) Best-selling Author Dan Pink takes ideas from his books and applies them to the modern topics of AI, employee motivation, and what the modern office is really for in an increasingly hybrid world. (32:12) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Globus Medical and RPM International. Stocks discussed: IBIT, FBTC, COIN, PYPL, PLD, TSMC, MS, GS, RPM, GMED Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Dan Pink, Shannon Jones Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 18 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Banking On The Home Court Advantage


Regional banks are facing strong competition in the battle for your dollars. (00:21) Matt Frankel and Deidre Woollard discuss: - How new rules could change what you pay in overdraft fees. - Why banks are socking away money for credit losses. - The potential advantage for regional banks. (17:31)Asit Sharma and Mary Long take a medium dive into Paycom and discuss a product that could be too good for its own good. Companies discussed: TFC, DFS, USB, WFC, PAYC, JPM, PAYX, PCTY, ADP, ORCL Claim your Epic Bundle discount here:www.fool.com/epic198 Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Asit Sharma, Matt Frankel, Mary Long Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 17 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

di-Spirit Airlines and Ubers Schnapsidee


The DOJ logs a win against airline consolidation, and Uber takes a sober look at a 2021 acquisition. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Why JetBlues $3.8B acquisition of Spirit Airlines hit a snag. - Elon Musks comp package at Tesla, and what investors should think of his desire to have 25% voting control. - Ubers plans to shelve Drizly two years after buying it for $1.1B. (13:36) Dave Holeman is the CEO of Whitestone REIT, which focuses on open-air retail centers. He talks to Deidre Woollard about why restaurants are the new anchor stores and how shopping habits are changing. Companies discussed: SAVE, JBLU, TSLA, UBER, WSR Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Deidre Woollard, Dave Holeman Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 16 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Focus on the Fastball


Earnings season begins again and the big banks lead the way. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Jason Moser discuss: - The new growth engine for Goldman Sachs - The macro risks that Morgan Stanley highlighted. - Why the CEO of Adidas gave his cell phone number to 60,000 people. Plus, (14:20) Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick open up the member mailbag and answer your questions about investing a lump sum, saving for kids, and ABLE accounts. Stocks mentioned: GS, MS, ADDYY Epic Bundle discount link: www.fool.com/epic198 Got a question for the show? Our email is podcasts@fool.com Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 14 Jan 2024 17:01:00 -0000

Wharton Professor on Risk and Returns


Ricky Mulvey caught up with Jules van Binsbergen, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvanias Wharton School, to talk about market sentiment, savings goals, and how to prepare for periods with lower rates of return. They also discuss: Disconnects between the real economy and financial markets, Whether the US stock market is merely a lucky survivor, And the dangers of institutional thinking in investing and academia. Tickers discussed: NOK, BTC Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Jules van Binsbergen Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 13 Jan 2024 17:00:00 -0000

Liz Ann Sonders on the Rolling Recession


Well capitalized companies are taking higher interest rates in stride.The zombies will have more trouble standing up. Liz Ann Sonders is the Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab. Deidre Woollard caught up with Sonders to discuss: - Why investors should pay attention to the S&P 600. - Cracks in consumer spending. - The year of efficiency, part two. - A major tailwind for the economy. Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Liz Ann Sonders Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Tim Sparks, Chace Przylepa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 12 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Activist Investors are Acting Up


Twilios co-founder and CEO steps down due to activist pressure, and Elliot Managements $1B stake in Match means changes might be coming. (00:21) Ron Gross and Emily Flippen discuss: - The latest inflation numbers and why we shouldnt bank on rate cuts yet - Activist investor activity at Twilio and Match Group, and potential plans to take Docusign private. - Big bank updates, a surprising pop from WD40, and things to watch heading into earnings season. (19:11) Documentarian Chris Temple talks about his new movie This is Not Financial Advice and how parasocial relationships are impacting what people do with their money and the causes of growing financial nihilism among younger Americans. (32:46) Ron and Emily break down two stocks on their radar: Despegar and On Holdings. Stocks discussed: TWLO, MTCH, DOCU, BAC, WFC, JPM, C, WDFC, ONON, DESP Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Ron Gross, Emily Flippen, Mary Long, Chris Temple Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 11 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Are Job Cuts A Sword Or A Knife?


(00:21) David Meier and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The macro and micro of job cuts. - What companies are signaling when layoffs happen. - If bitcoin is more like an IPO or gold. (16:46)What is the snap test? Alicia Alfiere and Ricky Mulvey explore this vital way of considering companies. Companies discussed: CRM, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, BLK, RENT, SNAP, NFLX, COST Claim your Epic Bundle discount here:www.fool.com/epic198 Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: David Meier, Ricky Mulvey, Alicia Alfiere Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 10 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Robot Surgeons and Legal Financiers


The post-Covid surgery backlog is fueling Intuitive Surgical to strong preliminary earnings results, and the CEO of Burford Capital talks through their unique niche in the legal space. (00:21) Jason Moser and Dylan Lewis discuss: - The SECs pending decision on crypto spot ETFs and the agencys X account getting hacked. - Potential regulations coming for the gig economy and workers that are heavily reliant on companies like Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash. - An early earnings look for Intuitive Surgical, and why surgery activity has normalized post-COVID. (12:48) Burford Capital CEO Chris Bogart walks analyst Rich Griefner through the world of legal financing, his company's competitive advantages, and a high-stakes case with Argentina. Companies discussed: UBER, LYFT, DASH, AMXZN, BUR Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jason Moser, Rich Griefner, Engineers: Dan Boyd, Dez Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 09 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Crocodile Pop


Crocs investors are expecting slower sales growth this year, but theyre still celebrating. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Bill Barker discuss: - Boeings door plug accident, and what it means for the business. - Crocs updated sales guidance, and low valuation. -Why investors seem to always celebrate layoff announcements. Plus, (13:08) Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick share some advice for a healthier new year. Dividends report: www.fool.com/2024dividends Companies discussed: BA, SPR, CROX Hosts: Ricky Mulvey, Alison Southwick Guests: Bill Barker, Robert Brokamp Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 08 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Headsets First, Killer Apps Second


The Consumer Electronics Show kicks off with big news from Nvidia and many more. (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - Announcements from CES. - What could make Apples Vision Pro successful. - The relevance of Twilios CEO switch. (17:42)Ricky Mulvey interviews Kevin Simzer, Chief Operating Officer of Trend Micro, about cybersecurity in the cloud and the new threats facing electric cars. Companies discussed: AAPL TWLO, NVDA, AMD, OTC: TMICY Claim your Epic Bundle discount here:www.fool.com/epic198 Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Kevin Simzer Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Desiree Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 07 Jan 2024 17:01:00 -0000

Morgan Housel on Economic Forecasts, Resolutions, and Writing


Lets say you have a big goal for 2024, financially or personally. What happens after you reach it? Morgan Housel is the best-selling author of Same As Ever and The Psychology of Money. Dylan Lewis caught up with Housel for a discussion about: - Setting up processes, not resolutions for the new year. - The biggest significant economic story (thats already known). -What early criticisms of cars, airplanes, and AI have in common. Host: Dylan Lewis Guest: Morgan Housel Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 06 Jan 2024 17:00:00 -0000

A Fools Guide to Investing in 2024


New year, new you! Or maybe just a new portfolio. Whether youre a seasoned investor or just starting out, consider this your start here guide for Foolish investing in the year ahead. Mary Long talks with Asit Sharma, Meilin Quinn, and Matt Argersinger about: (01:02) Fool Rules, (12:53) investing tools, (21:28) and what the year ahead might (or might not) have in store. Claim your Epic Bundle discount here. Host: Mary Long Guest: Asit Sharma, Meilin Quinn, Matt Argersinger Engineer: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd Tickers mentioned: DIS, VINP, EPR, HSY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 05 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Mag Seven or Lag Seven?


Big tech had a monster 2023, but companies have some big expectations and valuations to live up to in the new year. (00:21) Jason and Matt Argersinger discuss: - The premium 2023s Magnificent Seven are currently trading at and why some other areas look a bit more attractive now for new money. - Holiday e-commerce and retail numbers, and what they say about the shopping season. - Why Walgreens status as a Dividend Aristocrat is over. (19:11) David Gardner shares some timeless investing advice and some inspiration to kick off 2024. (34:20) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: UiPath and Pebblebrook Hotel Trust. Stocks discussed: AAPL, NVDA, GOOG, GOOGL, TSLA, META, WBA, NFLX, NET, MTN Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser, David Gardner Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 04 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Is Walgreens Your Next Healthcare Giant?


Walgreenss new CEO has some big plans. (00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The big tasks ahead for Walgreenss new CEO. - What a dividend drop might be signaling. - How price drops impacted Big Egg. (17:23) Jim Gillies and Ricky Mulvey talk pullback stocks including Aritzia and Shopify. Companies discussed: CALM, WBA, TSE:ATZ, ATZAF, SHOP Get your dividends report here:www.fool.com/2024dividends Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Bill Barker, Jim Gillies, Ricky Mulvey Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 03 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

The End of the Mickey Mouse Moat?


After 95 years of copyright protection, Steamboat Willie enters the public domain. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Why early versions of Disneys Mickey and Minnie Mouse characters are now appearing in horror slasher films. - Tesla once again being the king of EVs, and what to make of BYD coming up on its heels. - A digital entertainment stock to watch in 2024. (15:47) Its been a great run for growth stocks and it might not be over! Deidre Woollard caught up with Motley Fool Analyst Kirsten Guerra for a look at some recent winners that could keep winning in 2024. Companies discussed: DIS, TSLA, SONO, DUOL Catch the original Steamboat Willie cartoon, in all its public domain glory here. Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Deidre Woollard, Kirsten Guerra Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 02 Jan 2024 21:00:00 -0000

Stock Picks > Economic Forecasts


Institutional investors make headlines with sweeping predictions about the economy, but theres not much of a consequence if theyre wrong. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Jason Moser discuss: - Apple resuming watch sales, and long battle against Masimo. - Why its difficult to make accurate economic predictions. - Understanding a businesss valuation and its story. - A stock and an ETF we plan on holding through 2024. Plus, (17:42) Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick provide some tips to be more productive in the new year. Stocks/ETFs mentioned: AAPL, MASI, TDOC, AXON, SCHD Link to receive a complimentary report on dividend stocks: www.fool.com/2024dividends Learn more about your ad choices at megaphone.fm/adchoices Hosts: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 29 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

2024 Preview!


Were ringing in the new year with stocks to watch, leaders feeling the heat, and some half-baked predictions. (00:21) Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger share: - The trends theyre following in 2024 - CEOs in the hot seat - Reckless predications for the new year (19:11) Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner shares his investing lessons from 2023 and a Fool stock hes excited about for 2024. (34:45) Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger share two stocks on their radar for the new year: American Tower and EPR Properties. Stocks: SBUX, DIS, BRK, SHOP, AMT, EPR, Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Ron Gross, Matt Argersinger, Tom Gardner Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 24 Dec 2023 17:00:00 -0000

One Christmas Was So Much Like the Other


Dylan Lewis shares a family tradition and some well-wishes, however and wherever you might be spending the holidays. Host: Dylan Lewis Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 23 Dec 2023 17:00:00 -0000

The Deal on Real Estate


Offices = empty. Housing = expensive. But dont let the gloominess fool you! There are still bright spots in real estate markets. Deidre Woollard caught up with Motley Fool analysts Matt Argersinger and Anthony Schiavone to reflect on real estate trends in 2023 and look ahead toward the year to come. They discuss: - Three scenarios for housing affordability - A void that Blackstone and Brookfield could be looking to fill - Why REITs are poised for a rebound Tickers discussed: DLR, EQIX, IRM, PLD, STAG, MAA, BX, BN, STWD, ZG, RDFN, CSGP Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Matt Argersinger, Anthony Schiavone Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Annie Pope Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 22 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

The Tastes That Change and Stay the Same


Its our annual best-of interview show! (00:21) Best-selling author Morgan Housel talks through his book Same as Ever the timeless lessons from history that endure, no matter how the world changes. (19:11) Restaurateur, investor, and chairman at Cava Ron Shaich talks about Cavas path to becoming a public company, and why you might not want to bet against him in the restaurant industry. Stocks discussed: GOOG, GOOGL, X, META, CAVA, SBUX Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Morgan Housel, Ron Shaich Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Thu, 21 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

CLEAR Looks Beyond Travel


Its travel season but Clear wants you to think of them as far more than just the fast way through the airport. (00:21) Yasser El-Shimy and Deidre Woollard discuss: - If Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount would be a win-win deal. - Potential other media mash-ups. - Challenges facing the used car business. (20:06)Sanmeet Deo talks with Ken Cornick, the co-founder, President, and Chief Financial Officer of CLEAR, an identity management company. This conversation was recorded on Dec. 8, 2023. Companies discussed: YOU, WBD, PARA, KMX, CVNA, AMZN, NFLX, DIS Claim your dividend report here:www.fool.com/dividends Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Yasser El-Shimy, Sanmeet Deo, Ken Cornick Producers: Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey Engineers:Dan Boyd, Ricky Mulvey Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 20 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

Apple Watchs Clock is Ticking


Apple will have to halt sales of its latest Watch products this week due to patent disputes unless the presidents office decides to step in. (00:21) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Why you might not be able to buy the Apple Watch soon in the U.S. - Comcasts data breach affecting 30+ million customers. - Fedexs latest results and why they might be better than the market thinks. (16:39) Mary Long caught up with Kristy Akullian, Senior Member of the iShares investment strategy team at Blackrock. for a look at her team's 2024 outlook and one country to keep an eye on. Companies discussed: AAPL, MASI, CMCSA, FDX Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Mary Long, Kristy Akullian Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 19 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

100% Stocks for Retirement?


Toys are cheaper now than a year ago. And some of the most popular brands havent changed for decades. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma discuss: - Transitory inflation for the toy business and beyond! - The everlasting power of Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Lego. - Coupangs acquisition of luxury online retailer, FarFetch. Plus, (15:27) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp open the listener mailbag and answer a question about saving in a portfolio of only stocks for retirement. Got a question for the show? Email us at podcasts@fool.com Companies discussed: MAT, CPNG, FTCH Hosts: Ricky Mulvey, Alison Southwick Guests: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 18 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

One Deal Begins As Another Ends


(00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The arc of U.S. Steel over time. - Why Adobe might be giving up on acquiring Figma - The changing environment for getting deals done. (17:00) Deidre Woollard talks to angel investor and author Bill Raduchel about how tech has changed over the past six decades. Companies discussed: X, ADBE, CLF, XRX, AAPL, META, GOOG, GOOGL, NVDA Claim your Stock Advisor discount here: www.fool.com/mfmdiscount Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Bill Barker, Bill Raduchel Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Kyle Carruthers, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 17 Dec 2023 16:00:00 -0000

Marvel Cinematic Universe: Origins and Future


Long before Marvel was under the Disney umbrella, it was a conglomerate that wasnt terribly interested in making movies. Mary Long caught up with Dave Gonzales, a co-author of MCU: the Reign of Marvel Studios to discuss: - Why making superhero movies wasnt always an obvious decision. - The success, and future problems, created by Iron Man. - How the pandemic changed Marvel. Company discussed: DIS Host: Mary Long Guest: Dave Gonzales Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 16 Dec 2023 17:00:00 -0000

Live from Denver: The State of Tech Investing


The money aint flowing like it used to. Whats a tech investor to do? Earlier this month, Motley Fool Money hosted a live podcast recording and meetup for Fool members. There, Mary Long caught up with Alicia Alfiere, Tim Beyers, and Tim White to discuss: Differences between public markets and the venture scene, How money can ruin companies, And Teslas AI ambitions. Companies discussed: WMT, AAPL, CRM, CPNG, SNOW, TWLO, DDOG, TSLA Host: Mary Long Guest: Alicia Alfiere, Tim Beyers, Tim White Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri, 15 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

2023 in Review: Nvidia, Interest Rates, Taylor Swift


We look back on 2023, crown a few winners, and revisit some stories you may have forgotten about! (00:21) Bill Mann and Jason Moser discuss: - The data points that capture how 2023 has felt for investors, companies, and homeowners. - Why 2023 was rosy for NVIDIA and the cruise lines, and not so great for Dollar General. - The IPO and product launch that were totally forgotten this year. (19:11) Dave Meyer the VP of Growth and Analytics and the host of the On The Market Podcast at Bigger Pockets talks through insights from Bigger Pockets State of Real Estate Investing Report, and some interesting areas to watch in 2024. You can get Bigger Pockets full State of Real Estate Investing Report here: biggerpockets.com/REALESTATE24 (33:42) Jason and Bill break down two stocks on their radar: Okta and Crispr. Stocks discussed: NVDA, CCL, RCL, DG, CAVA, META, CRSP, OKTA Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Bill Mann, Jason Moser, Dave Meyer, Deidre Woollard Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wed, 13 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

Survivor Takeover!


People arent stocks. Thats just one of the realizations Fool analyst Emily Flippen came to during her time on the hit show, Survivor. Mary Long caught up with Emily to debrief on her time as a castaway in Fiji. They also discuss: Emilys best-case scenario path to the Final Three, Conversations at camp (plus, whether she now believes that aliens built the pyramids), And what stocks shed gift to the remaining castaways. Companies discussed: DASH, UBER Host: Mary Long Guest: Emily Flippen Engineer: Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tue, 12 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

Netflix Has Cash


If youre an entertainment company in need of some money, then Netflix would like a word. (00:14) Ricky Mulvey and Nick Sciple discuss: - Occidental Petroleums acquisition of private energy producer, CrownRock. - Disney licensing shows out of its walled garden. - Why Netflix is can afford to be a buyer right now. - Googles antitrust loss against Epic Games. Plus, (13:58) Robert Brokamp interviews Mark Kantrowitz the author of How to Appeal for More College Financial Aid about the recent changes to the FAFSA. Stocks discussed: OXY, XOM, NFLX, DIS, WBD, GOOG, GOOGL, AAPL Hosts: Ricky Mulvey, Robert Brokamp Guests: Nick Sciple, Mark Kantrowitz Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mon, 11 Dec 2023 21:00:00 -0000

Would A Macys Buyout Be A Miracle On 34th Street?


Should investors be excited about a big department store potentially going private? (00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss: - The potential for Macys going private. - If department stores are going the way of the dodo. - What could change the regulatory climate for big deals. (17:06) Ricky Mulvey and Matt Frankel dive into Boston Omaha, a company that could be poised to be the next great conglomerate. Companies discussed: BOC, M, WMT, AMZN Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Matt Frankel Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Annie Pope Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sun, 10 Dec 2023 16:00:00 -0000

Checking Out Retails Year


The key word for retail in 2022 was inventory. This year, its shrink. Deidre Woollard caught up with Motley Fool Senior Analyst Asit Sharma and Contributor Toby Bordelon to check out the retail landscape. They discuss: - How Americans are spending and changing their priorities. - The tech replacement cycle, and what that means for Best Buy. - A slowdown for Home Depot and Lowes. - Retail trends to watch in 2024. Tickers discussed: HD, LOW, BBY, LOVE, WRBY, LULU, NKE, UA Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Asit Sharma, Toby Bordelon Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sat, 09 Dec 2023 17:00:00 -0000

Oh, Canada!


Get in, Fools! Were going to Canada. Nick Sciple and Jim Gillies, both analysts for The Motley Fool Canada, caught up to talk about the macro environment in Americas Northern Neighbor and opportunities investors can find in a messy housing market. They also discuss: The deceptive nature of static mortgages 6 bank stocks that are long-term, growing winners And a company that specializes in the absurd Tickers discussed: CM, BNS, TD, RY, BMO, TSX:NA, BB, SHOP, TSX: CSU, TSX: ATD, TSX: SJ Host: Nick Sciple Guest: Jim Gillies Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fri,