PodGrabber.com
Investing Podcast Archives (The Vault)


Forward Guidance

Mon, 25 Sep 2023 17:23:00 -0000

Former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz On Crypto Regulation

Brian Quintenz, head of policy for a16z crypto and former commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), joins Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of crypto regulation. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Sat, 23 Sep 2023 19:42:00 -0000

The Bond Market Is Tanking. Is It Time To Buy? | Nanette Jacobson

Nanette Jacobson, Global Investments Strategist at Hartford Funds, joins Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook. Jacobson argues that it might be time to lean into bonds because the bonds tend to rally 13 months before the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and she and Jack Farley debate the various merits of owning bonds at this juncture in the business cycle. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Economic Outlook (09:04) Outlook On Banking System (12:45) Views On Interest Rates & Fed (25:20) China is "Cheap For A Reason" (30:14) U.S. Fiscal Stimulus (37:22) Cautious Views On Stocks (39:05) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (39:06) Debate About Bonds (45:56) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (50:52) Expensive Stocks Can Always Get More Expensive
Wed, 20 Sep 2023 22:50:12 -0000

Danielle DiMartino Booth: Jay Powell Just Went Way Off Script At September Fed Meeting

Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserves Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jay Powell Goes Off Script (16:50) Oil & Inflation (25:54) Odds Of A Liquidity Crisis Forcing The Fed To Stop QT (Danielle Doesn't Buy It!) (40:13) Normalization of Credit (46:52) Danielle's Hypothesis That March 2020 Might Not Count As A Recession (53:13) Will There Be A NBER-Declared Recession Within 24 Months (And Why)? (01:01:00) Risk Of Government Shutdown
Wed, 20 Sep 2023 01:00:00 -0000

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce on Regulation In Crypto, SPACs, and Money Market Funds

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce joins Jack Farley to share her views on crypto regulation and the SECs purview of it. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:39) Crypto & Transparency - What Is The SEC's Role? (07:29) What Is A "Security"? Commissioner Peirce's Views (15:00) SEC Proposal To Change Definition Of An Exchange (17:00) Crypto And Alleged "Lawlessness" (20:21) Does The SEC's Jurisdiction Begin And End With "Securities"? (23:07) Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) (26:45) Proposed Money Market Fund (MMF) Reform (29:14) Difference Between A Money Market Fund And A Stablecoin
Mon, 18 Sep 2023 20:59:17 -0000

Jim Bianco, Mark Yusko, & Jurrien Timmer on Real Interest Rates, Banking System, and Crypto (Panel at Permissionless 2023)

Jack Farley hosts Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital, and Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, for a panel on whether the near-term macro situation will be a headwind or tailwind for crypto. Filmed on September 12, 2023, at Blockworks' Permissionless II in Austin, Texas. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Is Macro A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto? (23:41) Will Fed Keep Interest Rates "Higher For Longer"? (28:53) The Banking System (34:14) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (39:58) Final Verdict: Will Macro Be A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto (Or Does It Not Matter)?
Sun, 17 Sep 2023 17:38:00 -0000

Mark Yusko: Macro "Doesn't Matter" For Crypto (Permissionless Interview)

Jack interviews Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital at Blockworks Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Macro Doesn't Matter For Crypto (05:24) 4 Main Factors That Affect Venture Capital (VC) Returns (13:59) Metcalfe's Law As A Valuation Framework (17:21) Mark Yusko: "I Am Not A Bitcoin Maximalist" (20:44) Mark Yusko: "I Am A Big China Bull"
Fri, 15 Sep 2023 22:08:08 -0000

Jim Bianco: No Recession, No Landing

Jack interviews Jim Bianco of Bianco Research at Blockworks Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) No Rate Cuts If Oil Prices Stay High (06:28) Jim Bianco: The Recession Already Happened In 2022 (15:11) What Is Appropriate Level On Interest Rates (And Bond Yields) For U.S. Economy? (24:59) A "Garden Variety Recession" Hasn't Occurred In Many Decades (33:28) Household's And Corporates' Terming Out Of Debt In 2020 (34:41) Mortgage Market Is Hurting Banks (42:55) Fixed-Income Outlook: Duration Vs. Credit (45:37) Jim Bianco: Macro Will Be A Headwind For Crypto (51:54) Increased Regulatory Scrutiny For Crypto
Thu, 14 Sep 2023 15:08:00 -0000

Andrew Beer: Hedge Funds Charge Way, Way Too Much

Andrew Beer, managing member of DBI, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the need for drastic fee reduction in hedge-fund like return vehicles. Beer and Farley explore in depth the mysteries of trend following (also known as CTAs or managed futures) strategies, which provide investors with positive carrying uncorrelated return streams that can be very beneficial in years such as 2022, when stocks and bonds both suffered a severe drawdown. Filmed on September 6, 2023. Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:04) Alpha & Beta (02:25) What Hedge Funds Do Well (11:17) Paying High Hedge Fund Feeds Is Like "Shooting Yourself In The Foot" (14:31) The Strategy of Managed Futures (or Commodity Trading Advisors) (29:40) The Rise of the "Pod Model" In Multi-Manager Hedge Funds (39:00) Picking Hedge Fund Managers Is A Largely Hopeless Task (44:29) Many Hedge Funds Have Missed The 2023 Tech Rally (50:24) Optimal Rebalancing Between Strategies (57:53) History Of Bad Ideas In Creation of New Investment Products: "Alternative Risk Premia" (59:42) A Lof Of Academic Finance Is Insane (01:01:20) The "Value Factor" As We Once Knew It No Longer Exists (01:16:36) Ark & Cathie Wood (01:25:51) China Was "Adored" By Hedge Fund Community
Tue, 12 Sep 2023 20:00:00 -0000

Eric Basmajian: Why The U.S. Economy Hasnt Entered Recession Yet (And Why He Is Confident It Will Soon)

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share his view on the U.S. business cycle. Basmajian notes that the 2022 decline in economic growth rate turned into a remarkable stabilization of broad coincident indicators of economic activity that began in January 2023 and persisted throughout the spring stresses in the banking system. However, he remains confident that the U.S. economy will enter a recession soon, and he discusses in detail several of his leading indicators that motivate his view. Filmed on September 7, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Link to YCharts' Webinar on September 22nd: https://ycharts.zoom.us/webinar/register/5916933495668/WN_OD3x5xyzQ7qWTrtGDChLFA Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Pre-Recession Phase Continues (06:25) Housing And Autos Are Not Slowing Down That Much (13:19) Consumer Credit Is Still Somewhat Strong (For Now) (16:17) When Will Recession Come? (23:11) Pushing Back Against The Recessionary Thesis (30:14) How Far Will Unemployment Rate Go? (32:06) Does New Bull Market In Stocks Indicate There Will Be No Recession? (36:40) Debate On Mechanics Of How Higher Interest Rates Constrain Economic Activity (39:56) Banking System And Credit Crunch (52:35) Contraction In Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Is Signalling A Recession (01:00:23) What Is Eric's Level Of Confidence That U.S. Is Indeed Headed For A Recession? (01:09:47) Outlook on Rates & Bond Yields
Tue, 12 Sep 2023 18:07:00 -0000

Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The U.S. Economy? | Jeremy Schwartz & Professor Jeremy Seigel (Jacks Guest Appearance On Behind The Markets Podcast)

This is Jacks guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well as the banking system, which Jack shares his thoughts on in some depth. Recorded on September 1st, 2023. Original episode on Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley/id1194707802?i=1000626532544 Jeremy Siegels book, Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies: https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/0071800514 Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (04:58) Money Supply & Other Monetary Aggregates (07:21) Bond Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel About Non-Farm Payrolls (12:30) Professor Siegel's Short-Term Modestly Bullish View On Stocks (15:29) Stocks And The Economy (19:39) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of American Households (28:24) Jack's Views On Banking System
Fri, 08 Sep 2023 23:00:00 -0000

Milton Berg: The Stock Market Is In Trouble

When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed on September 5, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visithttps://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Milton Berg on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:09) Reviewing Milton Berg's Successful Bullish Call in January 2023 (07:23) Market Outlook Now (20:00) "This Market Is In A Lot Of Trouble (22:16) Eight Reasons To Doubt That This Bull Market Will Continue (28:05) Banking Index Often Bottoms Before General Stock Market Bull Move (30:14) High Interest Rates Are A Deflationary Force (36:26) Stock Market Not As Healthy As It Seems (56:16) Market Cycle Dates (01:05:54) Milton Berg No Longer Bullish On China (01:08:17) Anticipating the End Of This Rally (01:18:35) Bullish Call On Bank Index (01:24:13) Stocks Will Likely Decline Below Low Of October 2022, Argues Berg ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 06 Sep 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Wave of U.S. Treasury Issuance Puts Pressure On Bond Market | Prometheus Macro

On todays episode, Aahan Menon Founder of Prometheus Research joins the show for a discussion on his current macro outlook looking at the economy, growth, markets & liquidity. With a wave of U.S Treasury issuance on the horizon, Aahan explains why he now sees a perfect opportunity to be short stocks & bonds and he expects further headwinds for assets in this environment. To hear Aahan explain why, and much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Prometheus Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Progressing Through A Tightening Cycle (07:57) How To Measure Liquidity (15:51) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is On The Horizon (24:09) Is The Fed Behind The Curve? (29:10) Inflation (38:25) Credit Is Contracting, Just Not Enough... Yet (43:17) When To Shift From Short Stocks & Bonds (50:44) Private vs Public Sector Liquidity (59:41) Prometheus Research -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 05 Sep 2023 14:13:00 -0000

"Credit Shock" In Commercial Real Estate | John Toohig, Victor Calanog, and Thomas LaSalvia

Todays interview is a deep-dive into commercial real estate (CRE), an asset class which includes office, multifamily housing (apartments), hotels, data centers, malls, and more. Jack welcomes John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, Thomas LaSalvia, Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics, and Victor Calanog, Manulifes Managing Director & Global Head of Research and Strategy, Real Estate Private Markets, for a wide-ranging discussions on the challenges and opportunities within CRE, with a focus on how the recent interest rate shock has impacted property values, cash flows, interest expense, and other key metrics in the CRE world. Filmed on August 30, 2023. -- Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Follow Lets Talk Loans on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7103476860633718784/ Follow Moodys CRE Insights: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/ Moodys CRE piece on CMBS Office Loan Maturity: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/ma-cre-office-loan-maturity-monitor-office-payoffs-significantly-lag-other-property-types/ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:15) Payment Shock For Real Estate Funded With Debt Before The Fed Raised Rates (11:02 Maturity Defaults Are On The Rise (13:25) Office Sector Is By Far Facing The Biggest Challenges Vs. Other CRE Compenents (19:22) Who Owns The Equity In These CRE Deals? (22:25) Gap Between Private Valuations and Public Valuations (25:51) Higher For Longer Is Exponentially Increasing Debt Costs For Real Estate (30:03) State Of The Secondary Market For Real Estate Loans (35:14) Cash Flows Matter More Than "Loan-To-Value" (40:08) There's A Hesitation Right Now For Institutions To Take Losses (42:27) Odds Of A True Recessions vs. A "Slow-Cession" (and Soft Landing & No Landing) (45:35) How Common Is Interest Rate Hedging Among Leveraged Real Estate Investors? (48:01) Slowdown In New Originations For CRE Loans (52:46) Fundamnetals Of Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) (01:01:05) Negative Leverage In The MultiFamily Market (01:07:31) Insurance Costs Are Skyrocketing (01:10:54) Retail (example: Malls) And Hospitality (example: Hotels) (01:16:45) China (01:20:28) Closing Thoughts On U.S. Banking System (01:22:52) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 31 Aug 2023 18:06:00 -0000

David Rosenberg: A Recession Is Coming In The Next 6 Months

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year (09:27) Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative (20:20) What Causes A Recession? (24:56) How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates? (35:34) We Haven't Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet (42:02) The Politics Of Deficit Spending (47:01) There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market (59:37) How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be? (01:06:56) Fitch's AAA Downgrade (01:09:41) The Fed Has Overtightened (01:14:12) The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment (01:16:00) Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak? _____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 29 Aug 2023 21:46:00 -0000

Vincent Deluard: The Magic Money That Prevented Recession Is About To Disappear

In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of stealth stimulus would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/trading. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow StoneX on Twitter https://twitter.com/stoneX_official Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The "Stealth Stimulus" Is Over (13:15) How Much Tightening Effect Of Higher Rates Has Already Been Felt? (18:55) Making Sense of 2023 Stock Market Rally (20:59) The Second Wave Of Inflation (26:40) Is Central Banks' Inflation Target Unnecessary? (41:13) Vincent's Bull Case For Non-U.S. Assets (46:49) China (49:52) Europe (53:29) Japan (55:35) Sector Analysis: Healthcare, Tech, Energy, Financials (59:14) Bearish View On U.S. Stocks (01:02:25) Bank Outlook After Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 28 Aug 2023 22:48:22 -0000

Business Cycle Slowdown Will Intensify Into Recession | Mike Singleton

Follow Mike Singletonhttps://twitter.com/InvictusMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Singleton's Macro Process (12:47) The Excess Savings Debate (17:06) U.S. Economy Headed For Severe Recession In 2023 (19:19) The Best Time To Buy Bonds (24:06) Unemployment Rate To Go As High As 7% (48:52) The Spending Boom ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 25 Aug 2023 11:00:00 -0000

ESG: The 40 Trillion Dollar Bubble | Mark Neuman

On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mark Neuman on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkNeuman18 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:vhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) The Origins Of ESG (04:32) Measuring ESG Investing (16:47) What Stocks Are Underowned Within The Indices? (24:00) Silicon Valley Bank (26:21) Show Me The Incentive & I'll Show You the Outcome (32:50) ExxonMobil, Tesla & FTX (43:59) Weighting Within ESG Funds (49:06) Did 2022 Mark A Turning Point For ESG Investing? (54:38) HERO: Healing The Environment Regenerating Ourselves -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 24 Aug 2023 11:58:00 -0000

The Next Chapter in Emerging Markets Investing | Marshall Stocker, Co-Head of Emerging Markets, Morgan Stanley

Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, shares his insight why country selection has a greater effect on excess returns than company selection, and shares his view on investment opportunities and challenges in China, Greece, India, South Africa, and other countries. Filmed at Camp Kotok in August 2023. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Country Allocation Is Greater Source of Excess Returns Than Company Selection (03:55) Greatest Country Overweight: Greece (07:32) Underweight South Africa and India (08:33) Can Governments Default On Debt Denominated In Currencies They Can Print? The Answer May Surprise You! (10:54) Could The U.S. Ever Have An "Emerging Market Debt Crisis"? (12:31) Chinese Equities ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 22 Aug 2023 02:23:00 -0000

Government Debt Crisis Has Hit U.S. Banks | Bill Isaac, Former FDIC Chair

Today Jack interviews William Bill Isaac, who served as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985. Isaac recounts his handling of large bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, including the collapse of Continental Illinois, which was the largest FDIC takeover until Washington Mutual in 2008. Isaac argues that at the core of banking issues is fiscal imprudence by the U.S. Congress which has caused inflation and rate volatility.Filmed on August 16, 2023. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ William "Bill" Isaac is Chairman of Secura/Isaac Group, a global advisory firm serving the financial services industry. Bill has an unparalleled career in the financial industry and public service, spanning over 50 years. He served as Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1978 through 1985, working to maintain stability during the banking and thrift crises of the 1980s, when over 3,000 banks and thrifts failed. He also served as Chairman of Fifth Third Bancorp. For more information on Bill's past and current work, visit securaisaac.com ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bill's Early Journey To The FDIC (03:23) Anatomy Of A Bank Failure (12:40) Does Technology Hasten Bank Runs? (21:30) Impact of High Interest Rates On Banking System (31:01) Fiscal Policy Is Out Of Control (40:48) Federal Reserve Should Play A Role In Fiscal Matters, Says Former FDIC Chair (49:07) Is Inflation Itself, And Not Debt, The True Problem? (Modern Monetary Theory) (56:10) Two Reasons Why Banks Fall (On Asset Side): Credit & Duration (01:08:28) Are Banking Issues In The U.S. Systemic? (01:16:42) Debating The Need For Zero Interest Rates After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timecodes:
Fri, 18 Aug 2023 15:00:00 -0000

The Banking System's Guardian Angel You've Never Heard Of | Michael Ericson & Dan Siciliano on Federal Home Loan Banks

Few outside the banking world grasp the true importance of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), whose collective loans to U.S. banks outpace the Federal Reserves by more than 10 to 1 as of summer 2023. Today Jack speaks to Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, and Dan Siciliano, chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB, about the FHLBs mission, capitalization, and implicit government guarantee. Ericson and Siciliano argue that the declining advances from FHLBs to U.S. banks since May 2023 may indicate an easing of liquidity pressures in the U.S. banking system. Filmed on August 15, 2023. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) About Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System (21:08) FHLB Is Much, Much Less Centralized Than The Federal Reserve (25:47) San Francisco FHLB Advances To Now-Defunct West Coast Banks (34:48) FHLB & Affordable Housing (38:07) What Caused Banks' Scramble For Cash in March 2023? (46:21) FHLB Implict Government Guarantee (57:24) How Have FHLBs Never Lost Any Money On Advances To Banks? (01:06:58) Interest Rate Hedging (01:08:31) Liquidity Issues In U.S. Banking System Have "Calmed Down Quite A Bit" (01:15:16) Capital Stock Of Federal Home Loan Banks (01:24:40) Will Regulators Attempt To Curb FHLB Lending To Non-Mission-Oriented Institutions? (01:28:00) Potential New FHFA Regulation of FHLB ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 15 Aug 2023 15:15:00 -0000

Ivy Zelman: Housing Market Downturn Isn't Over

Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open ____ To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email ted@zelmanassociates.com Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Zelman & Associates 2023 Virtual Housing Summit: Our 16th Annual Housing Summit continues to provide rich market content, lively panel discussions and fresh perspectives on the housing ecosystem that is unique to Zelman & Associates.Our panel discussions have C-Suite executives moderated by our elite team. We break down content, providing you with actionable insights that will help navigate the current market uncertainty and on into 2024. Zelman's ultimate goal (as always) was to provide you with the most accurate, in-depth and differentiated data and information to help you be successful in your endeavors. Registration Cost:$850.00 Special Discount:Email Kim Gray kim@zelmanassociates.comto register and mention this podcast for a 25% discount! Housing Summit Event Page: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/conference_home.html?bank_access=0&event_id=96353 Housing Summit Agenda: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/__agenda_cp.html Why Attend Our Housing Summit: Deemed The Best Housing-Related Conference of Year Attended by over 1,000 Institutional Investors and Industry Executives Thought-Provoking Panels Across The Housing Mosaic Corporate Access for Investors and Unique Networking Opportunities A Whos Who of Housing with all of the major public and private prevailing thought leaders in attendance About Zelman & Associates: Extensive macro, sector and company-specific equity research, exclusive industry surveys, stock recommendations, and insights leveraging our constant flow of real-time data. Our insights help connect the dots between all aspects of the housing mosaic to inform strategies and decisions rooted in confidence. Serving institutional investors, corporations, private equity, fixed income, private investors, RIAs and more. https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Resilience Of The U.S. Housing Market (09:28) Comparing the 2020 Housing Boom to the Early 2000s Housing Boom (13:43) Commercial Real Estate: Multifamily Housing (Apartment Buildings) (20:58) Shelter's Contribution To Overall Consumer Price Inflation (22:35) Housing's Impact On Banking System (25:53) Forecasts For Single-Family Housing (32:20) Supply of Housing (38:53) Outlook on Homebuilding Industry (43:42) Negative Outlook On Home Improvement Industry (48:22) Market For Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (51:06) The Fed Was Supporting The Market With Free Money (52:37) Macro Outlook
Sun, 13 Aug 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Fitch's U.S Debt Downgrade Was Justified | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok. We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade (07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch's Debt Downgrade (11:41) We Took MMT On A Test Drive & It Crashed Into The Wall (15:06) The Path Ahead For U.S Debt Issuance (19:58) Commercial Real Estate (23:19) Where Are We In The Cycle? (26:25) Oppenheimer Or Barbie? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 12 Aug 2023 13:00:00 -0000

Rate Cuts May Not End Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart

Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation. Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Inflation (05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates (08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy (10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target (16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target? (21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 11 Aug 2023 20:30:00 -0000

Inside Camp Kotok | David Kotok on Disastrous and Debilitating Effect Of Debt Ceiling on Bond Markets

David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to Camp Kotok with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of Camp Kotok and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitchs recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023. David Kotok's analysis on the debt ceiling: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cost-debt-ceiling-crisis About Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:10) The History Of Camp Kotok (11:11) Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S. Treasury Debt (20:56) 2023 Debt Ceiling Drama Imposed Real Cost On Borrowing Rates (28:58) Alternatives To The Global Dollar System (31:29) Anecdote From Municipal Bond Market (35:46) Will Interests Rates Go Even Higher? (38:32) The Federal Reserve's Assistance To The U.S. Banking Sector In 2023
Fri, 11 Aug 2023 16:00:00 -0000

Rumors Of The Death of Chinese Economys Have Been Greatly Exaggerated | Leland Miller

Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023. Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess (06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed (09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many Expect
Thu, 10 Aug 2023 20:09:28 -0000

The Feds Inflation Fight Isnt Over | Jim Bianco & Samuel Rines (Camp Kotok)

Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leens Lodge for the first week of Camp Kotok. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:22) The Bond Market (12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco (17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt (18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel Rines
Tue, 01 Aug 2023 18:01:48 -0000

The Sovereign Debt Spiral | James Lavish

James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visithttps://blockfills.com/trading. ____ Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavish Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt (16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral (28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money (42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option (49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System (58:36) Why Just Bitcoin? (01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund (01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are, In Fact, Securities (01:11:44) The Economy & The Federal Reserve (01:15:04) Tether (01:17:15) Optimal Macro Environment For Bitcoin ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 27 Jul 2023 18:55:16 -0000

The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & Andy Constan

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity. Todays interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visithttps://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/crossbordercap ___ Follow Andy Constan on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors:https://dampedspring.com/ More info on Crossborder Capital:http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Michael Howells Substack:https://capitalwars.substack.com/ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity (04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake (11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising? (18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity (31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"? (44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo (53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks (59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade (01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)? (01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell (01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 26 Jul 2023 23:40:12 -0000

Julian Brigden: Markets "On A Knife's Edge" After July Fed Meeting

Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year. Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Feds interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a knifes edge and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates. Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference at the close of the meeting of the Feds Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of Insider Talks on Real Vision Pro. Todays interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Something Has To Crack (11:01) Hyperfinancialization Means Employment Will Stay High As Long As Stocks Keep Going Up (22:09) Recession Risk (26:41) What's More Likely, A Fall in Stocks Or A Fall In Bonds? (32:34) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Comparison To Subprime Mortgages In 2007 (36:17) Is The Bond Market Still The "Smart Money"? (40:30) Is Liquidity Rising Or Falling? (43:26) Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions... Right? (Maybe No Longer!) (45:40) U.S. Housing Market (49:32) Julian's Bear Case For The U.S. Dollar (01:06:47) German Economy Is Very Sluggish (01:08:34) China (01:14:41) Will Japanese Interest Rates Be At Zero Forever? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 24 Jul 2023 19:32:44 -0000

Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply

Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on todays very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasurys renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SECs new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market (05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data (14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed (23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds? (31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields (34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? (42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time? (46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade (49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 22 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- In this episode I join the On The Margin podcast with Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week. With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 21 Jul 2023 17:50:00 -0000

Bullishness Approaching Mania | Peter Atwater on Market Psychology And The Confidence Map

Peter Atwater, Adjunct Professor of Economics at William and Mary, and author of The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity joins Forward Guidance to diagnose the sentiment thats driving the current (unofficial) bull market in risk. Follow Peter Atwater on Twitter https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Peter Atwaters book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity: https://peteratwater.com/the-confidence-map-2/ The Confidence Map on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559#:~:text=The%20Confidence%20Map%20is%20a,that%20too%20often%20feels%20senseless. ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Blue Sky Optimism Has Gripped The Stock Market (06:13) The Bubble Can ALWAYS Get Bigger (15:56) Sentiment On Recession Has Changed Massively (21:28) The Confidence Map (33:00) Passive Investing (39:09) Finding Extreme Sentiments In Markets (43:04) U.S. Banking System (45:46) The K-Shaped Recovery, 3 Years Later (57:04) Psychology Of The Federal Reserve (01:01:14) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 18 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

OPEC To The Rescue | Rory Johnstons Cautious Bull Case For >$80 Oil

Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now cautiously bullish on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabias significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023. ____ Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Johnstons latest Substacks on Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) An "Exhausting" Oil Market (02:59) The Cautious Bull Case For Oil (11:28) OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices (24:20) Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop? (31:36) Guyana (34:22) Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies (49:13) The Russian Supply Question (54:55) Price Cap (59:02) Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil (01:03:10) The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls (01:09:02) Futures Curve (01:15:07) Recession Risk ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 16 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Recession Paradox | Alfonso Peccatiello

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:06:34) When Recession? Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 13 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Laws Of Quantitative Investing | Michael Robbins

On todays episode Michael Robbins, CIO of Larson Financial & Professor Of Quantitative Investing at Columbia University joins the show for a discussion on the quantitative investing strategy. Authoring the book "Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing" Michael takes us back to the very basics in answering what is quantitive investing, what actually causes markets to go up, why most investors are NOT stock pickers and how a quantitive strategy can help manage risk & create sizeable returns. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29076 Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing: http://quantitativeassetmanagement.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is Quantitative Investing? (02:24) Selling Fast & Buying Slow (05:26) What Causes Stocks To Go Up? (09:02) Are Rising Rates Actually Bad For Stocks? (15:11) Stock vs Bond Arbitrage Strategies (17:37) The VXX ETF (24:11) Most People Are NOT Stock Pickers (29:54) Risk Management (35:14) What Are The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make? (44:31) Being Early Is The Same As Being Wrong (49:37) What Indicators Are Worth Following With A Quantitative Strategy? (56:41) Liquidity (01:00:07) The Five Factors Of Investing (01:05:55) Investing Using Artificial Intelligence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 11 Jul 2023 18:36:00 -0000

The Basel III Endgame: Bank Regulation In A Post-SVB World | Steven Kelly

Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the Federal Reserves forthcoming plans to increase capital requirements for U.S. banks. Filmed on July 11, 2023. ____ Follow Steven Kelly on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Kellys latest Without Warning Substack:https://www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-story-of-svb-isnt-just ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:45) Bank Capital Ratios, Explained (18:52) Busting Myths About Banks' Interest Rate Hedging (38:15) Accounting For Unrealized Losses (46:56) How Much Money Is Leaving the Banking System? (54:16) U.S. Banking System Is "Stable But More Fragile" (01:02:47) The Basel III Endgame (01:05:54) Interest Rates And Financial Stability ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 10 Jul 2023 22:25:00 -0000

Vtor Constncio, Former Vice President of European Central Bank (ECB) on Inflation, Interest Rates, and The Global Banking System

Vtor Constncio witnessed firsthand severe recessions, inflationary bouts, and a global financial crisis, as former Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) (2010 to 2018) and Governor of The Bank of Portugal (1985-1986, 2000-2010). He brings this considerable experience to examine the current challenges facing central bankers at the ECB as well as the Fed. Constncio argues that while U.S. inflation is driven by a strong demand generated by loose fiscal policy, the primary agent of European inflation was the surge in energy prices in 2022. However, he recognizes that what began as supply-side pressure has broadened out to other sectors of the Euro area economy, so the ECBs hiking of interest rates to 4% was necessary. Constancio expects that a mild recession in Europe will tame inflation and that substantial further rate hikes from the ECB will likely not be needed. Filmed on July 6, 2023. ____ Follow Vtor Constncio on Twitter https://twitter.com/VMRConstancio Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Euro Area Inflation Is Mostly Due To Energy Shock, Not Demand (08:13) I Would Support A Pause In Interest Rate Hikes, Says Constancio (10:11) Recession In Europe Is Likely For 2023 (14:35) ECB Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates During A Mild Recession (16:20) There Pressure on The European Central Bank (ECB) To Follow The Federal Reserve? (20:44) Exploring The Logic Of Negative Interest Rates (25:29) Interest Rates' Impact On The Economy (32:04) Fixed vs. Floating Mortgages (34:48) ECB's Reaction Function During The 2008 Great Financial Crisis (44:16) Recent Bank Failures (Silicon Valley Bank) (49:51) Credit Suisse (51:51) Basel III Regulation of Held-To-Matuity Accounts and Interest Rate Hedging (54:47) Fighting Inflation In 1970s Portugal ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 09 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Railroad Recession & Airline Boom | Jay Shabat on Planes & Trains

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023. After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/ Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) The State Of Airlines In 2023 (03:09) How The Pandemic Impacted The Airline Industry (10:32) We're Not Seeing An Economic Slowdown Yet (20:40) International Travel (25:06) Why Airlines Aren't A Great Business (29:15) The Airline Industry Would Have Gone Bankrupt If Not For Government Assistance (36:20) The State Of Freight In 2023 (51:44) Consolidation In The Freight Industry (57:40) What Can Freight Tell Us About The U.S Economy? (01:10:02) How Do Airlines Hedge? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 06 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Price of Time | Edward Chancellor & Joseph Wang

Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.The Price of Time:https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069 ____ Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=en Follow Joseph Wang on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wangs YouTube channel:https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featured Joseph Wangs writings can be found athttps://fedguy.com/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles (11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard (18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad (30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital (37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity (45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos (46:44) Unicorns and Zombies (54:20) Elite Overproduction (57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 03 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Little-Known Entity Thats Lent Over $1 Trillion To U.S. Banks (10x The Fed!) | Professor Kathryn Judge on The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System

Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserves recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June. What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the lender of second-to-last resort. Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SECs move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFRs replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023. ____ Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudge Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Kathryn Judges book, Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven" (03:06) What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System? (07:24) Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s (11:22) Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And GlassSteagall) (17:31) FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (25:14) "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances" (33:54) FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop (34:28) Permissionless (41:24) What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like? (50:38) Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations (53:42) Blockworks Research (54:42) Held-To-Maturity Accounting (58:37) The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business (01:06:00) SEC's War With Crypto (01:08:04) The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 02 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

What The Oil Bulls Got Wrong | Michael Kao & Alexander Stahel on the Chinese Yuan & Oil "Doom Loop"

-- On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets. Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023. Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023 (13:47) Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply? (23:43)Forecasting Oil Prices (31:05) European Gas Prices (33:37) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:41) Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis (41:34) Chinese Oil Demand (01:01:33) Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market (01:17:23) Oil Has Further Downside Risk (01:24:13) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 01 Jul 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? | Weekly Round Up

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing? Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 30 Jun 2023 14:30:00 -0000

Fed Will Hike Rates Into Economic Train Wreck | Danielle DiMartino Booth

To get $1,000 off an annual subscription to QI Pro, Danielle DiMartino Booths institutional-grade research service, go to https://quillintelligence.com/register/qi-pro-friends-of-farley/. $3,000 instead of $4,000 for the first year, offer ends in July. Interested parties may request a sample report of QI Pro by emailing Danielle DiMartino Booth at danielle@dimartinobooth.com. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance on a mission to dispute the notion that the U.S. economy is strong. Booth challenges the apparently-rosy economic data and points to where the data is either very lagging or, as she says about the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, painfully corrupted. Booth explains why she expects inflation to continue to fall very sharply, and why she expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at least one more time in July (and perhaps again in September). Filmed on June 20, 2023. -- Follow Danielle: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Laying Inflation To Rest (07:43) Shortages Have Become Gluts (09:32) Housing Is Strong, Right? (14:04) Hidden Cracks In The Labor Market (16:49) Official Bureau of Labor Data Is "Painfully Corrupted" (24:23) Global Economic Impulse Is Disinflationary (28:56) Liquidity Is NOT Increasing, Says Danielle (35:04) QI Pro Discount (39:06) Fed Will Likely Hike Rates In July (And Maybe September), Says Danielle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 26 Jun 2023 21:09:00 -0000

The Fate Of Global Dollar Credit | Robert McCauley & Joseph Wang on Eurodollars, FX Swaps, and SOFR

Todays special guest is a true expert in global money. Robert McCauleys life work on the international monetary system is authoritative and seminal, and he joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang to answer questions such as: - how do Eurodollars actually work? - is the rest of the world long or short dollars? (the answer may surprise you) - how does the level of the dollar mechanically impact offshore dollar credit? McCauley confirms many rumors about Eurodollars (offshore dollars), as well as debunks several of their myths. He shares his view on the dollars role in the future of global money, and he details the astronomically large sums in the FX swap market used to hedge dollar exposure. McCauley also asks Joseph Wang a question about the fall of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) and the rise of SOFR (secured overnight financing rate). Filmed on June 21, 2023. Robert McCauley is the Senior Fellow at the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. He previously served as senior advisor to the monetary & economics department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as well as at the New York Fed. -- Robert McCauleys Eighth Edition of Manias, Panics, and Crashes: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/03/22/manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/ On Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/303116007X Robert McCauleys papers referenced during the show: The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/02/09/the-global-domain-of-the-dollar-eight-questions/ Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf Seven decades of international banking: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2109e.pdf The International Economic and Financial Order After the Pandemic and War, pages 123-128: https://media.iese.edu/research/pdfs/76606.pdf London as a financial centre since Brexit: evidence from the 2022 BIS Triennial Survey: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull65.pdf Joseph Wangs latest piece on SOFR (paywalled): https://fedguy.com/long-live-sofr/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wangs YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) Origin Of The Eurodollar System (19:46) Eurodollar Deposits Rarely Take Losses, But Silicon Valley Bank's Eurodollars Are In Limbo And May Be Lost (26:12) Can Non-U.S. Banks Print Dollar Deposits At Will? (39:50) Banking As A Percentage of GDP Peaked Many Years Ago (43:14) Is The Rest Of The World Long Dollars, Or Short Dollars? (53:49) Is The De-Dollarization Narrative Just A Lot Of Hot Air? (01:11:49) Who's Going To Buy U.S. Treasurys? (01:20:38) The Dollar's Role Does Not Give The U.S. An "Exorbitant Privilege" (01:24:29) $35 Trillion Dollar Hidden Debt Via FX Swaps (01:38:05) Robert McCauley's Question For Joseph Wang On SOFR & LIBOR -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 25 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Shiny New Derivative Thats Taken Over Wall Street | Kris Sidial on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options & Tail Risk During A Volatility Bear Market

With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what its like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol). Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023. -- Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Ambrus paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling+False+Narratives+About+0DTE+Options.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:16) Market Volatility Is At A Three-Year Low (07:34) Implied Volatility Could Go Even Lower (15:14) Tail Risk Strategies (36:01) The Stunning Rise Of Zero Days To Expiration (0DTE) Options (41:29) Huge Amounts Of Unregulated Leverage In 0DTE Options (52:31) Market Crash Is "Inevitable" Because Of Zero Day To Expiration Options (01:04:14) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (01:07:52) Performance Reporting of Tail Fund Risk Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 24 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Return Of The Bull Market? | On The Margin Round Up

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 22 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Michael Howell: "QE Is Coming Back, Big Time"

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity. -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market (07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here? (27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn (32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples (40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan (47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds (54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds (56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates? (01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us (01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System (01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual" (01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections (01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up) (01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 19 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

SPACs Are Bonds, Actually | Louis Camhi

Louis Camhi, founder and chief investment officer of RLH Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to provide a strategic update on the world of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies). ___ Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:58) "A Lot Of The Optionality of SPACs Is Dead" (17:25) State of SPAC Dealflow In Summer 2023 (32:08) Warrant Arbitrage (59:43) SPAC LIquidiation Wave in December 2022 Because of Stock Buyback Tax Threat In Inflation Reduction Act (01:06:49) "SPACs Are A Bull Market Product" (01:20:02) How SPAC Yields Have Changed With RIsing Interest Rates (01:29:17) Macroeconomic Implications (01:32:07) View on Banks (01:38:26) Cannabis ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 15 Jun 2023 04:15:00 -0000

Jay Powells Plan To Kill The Fed Put | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserves decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 14 Jun 2023 22:07:00 -0000

Did The Fed Just Back Down? | Joseph Wang & Michael Ippolito

On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Jun 2023 20:57:00 -0000

Higher For Longer | Robert Kaplan, Former Dallas Fed President & CEO

Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplans website:https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing (01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) (05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes (06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress? (15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves (16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present (24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt? (25:10) Future Economic Outlook (29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil (39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle (41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve (50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now (53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)? (55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy (59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital (01:02:41) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Jun 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Holy Grail of Macro Investing | Eric Crittenden

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing. Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Finding Opportunities Using A Macro Trend Strategy (04:21) Why Eric Has Been Long Japan, U.S & Europe In 2023 (08:54) Generating Returns Using A Quantitative Strategy (15:27) How Market Structure Has Changed Since The 1980's (18:06) Shorting Oil In 2023 (20:45) Permissionless (21:22) Market Hedging (27:53) Market Liquidity (29:49) Launching Standpoint In 2020 (33:18) Artificial Intelligence (39:49) Blockworks Research (40:49) Harvesting Risk Premium (49:51) Eric's Principles For Successful Trading (55:19) What Will AI's Role Be In Financial Markets? (59:39) The Psychology Of Macro Trend (01:03:39) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 09 Jun 2023 20:23:00 -0000

The Music Is About To Stop: John Toohig & Randy Woodward on Bank Lending, Deflation, and Secondary Loan Liquidity

Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return. Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023. ____ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Toohigs latest edition of Lets Talk Loans on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3D Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market (27:25) Permissionless (28:03) Commercial Real Estate (35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs (41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending" (51:49) Blockworks Research (52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020 (57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses (01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks (01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates? (01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit (01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 07 Jun 2023 19:45:00 -0000

Artificial Intelligence Bubble Has Only Just Begun, Says Citrini7, World's Hottest A.I. Stockpicker

Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute hottest hand when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year. Quoting George Soros saying that, when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it, Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023. Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:51Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Already A Bubble? 28:21 The Lipstick Effect 32:50 How Can These Rich Valuations Be Justified? 41:57 Permissionless 42:34 The Losers of The Rise of Artificial Intelligence 50:43 Blockworks Research
Tue, 06 Jun 2023 22:34:22 -0000

Coinbase Sued By SEC | Casey Wagner

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down. Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks: Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities ____ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 06 Jun 2023 17:39:00 -0000

The Fed Put Still Lives | Vincent Daniel

Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing. Immortalized in The Big Short, Vincents interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s ____ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.4% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance ____ Follow Vincent Daniel on Twitter https://twitter.com/VD718 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The Current Setup (06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally? (09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks (13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution (21:17) Public.com (22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds (26:24) Outlook on Stocks (29:47) Importance of Stop-Losses (31:12) How Much Research Before Taking A Position? (32:33) Concentration Risk/Reward: How Many Positions? (34:10) Why Vincent (and Porter) Shorted Banks Before Silicon Valley Bank Collapse (39:31) Banks' Moats Are Less Valuable Now, Says Vincent (42:58) Bank Run Risk Is Higher Now Than During Great Financial Crisis (44:52) Core Tier 1 Is Nonsense (54:01) Private Equity (01:02:30) Can High Debt Levels Hanlde High Interest Rates? (01:06:09) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (01:07:57) Vincent's Views On Bank Stocks Going Forward (01:12:46) Energy Stocks (01:17:00) "The Fed Put Never Died (01:19:19) Views On Recession Risk: "It's Hard For Me To See A Reflationary Boom" (01:21:52) Uranium ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 06 Jun 2023 00:38:00 -0000

Joseph Wang & Alex Etra: Trillion-Dollar Liquidity Drain Imminent

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Alex Etra Senior Macro Strategist at Exante Data & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show for a discussion on the path ahead for H2 2023. Reflecting on the record bond losses in 2022, Alex shares his outlook on what to expect in the second half of 2023 as bond fund managers experience inflows and tech related equities continue surging higher despite the bearish sentiment in the broader market. We then move on to some of the monetary plumbing implications amidst the debt ceiling resolution and what impact it could have on markets as the U.S Treasury looks to re fill is dwindling Treasury General Account. To hear all this & more. you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show: Back to 2019: https://fedguy.com/back-to-2019/ Money: Inside and Out: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Preparing For June FOMC (05:23) Will The Fed Hike, Skip Or Cut? (07:25) Back To 2019 (10:35) Permissionless (11:13) The Mechanics of The Treasury Cash-Futures Basis Trade (19:07) The Path Ahead In H2 2023 (25:47) Reflecting On The Bond Markets Performance In 2022 (34:21) Will A New Investor Class Replace Japanese Investors? (38:31) Equity Flows (43:46) Blockworks Research (44:46) Why Are Equity Markets Performing So Well In 2023? (51:51) The Mechanics of The U.S. Treasury, General Account (01:01:04) Quantitative Tightening: Is The Reverse Repo Heading Higher? (01:05:32) How Alex Tracks Market Flows -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 01 Jun 2023 12:42:00 -0000

Rate Hikes Are Inflationary, Says Warren Mosler, Godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)

Warren Mosler, founder of Valance Co., Inc. and author of The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy, is widely viewed as the intellectual godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a framework for understanding money and debt which underscores a governments ability to print money to pay for goods and services without relying necessarily on borrowing or taxation. Mosler joins Forward Guidance to apply these ideas to todays financial issues. He argues why a failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling would be truly catastrophic, and he makes the case that the Feds rate hikes are actually contributing to inflation, rather than fighting it, because the government is printing more money in order to pay its debt. Filmed on May 30, 2023. ____ Follow Warren Mosler on Twitter https://twitter.com/wbmosler Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Warrens website: https://moslereconomics.com/ Warrens book and other writings: https://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ (00:00) Risk Of Government Unwind Would Be Catastrophic (07:24) "Money Is Just A Series Of Dots Going On And Off In People's Bank Accounts" (14:52) The Federal Reserve Prints Money (19:07) The Government Spends First, Taxes and Borrows Second (31:23) Permissionless (32:01) Quantitative Easing Does Not Have An Actual Effect On The Economy (33:17) High Interest Rates Mean More Deficit Spending (48:29) Challenging The Narrative of Volcker As The Slayer Of Inflation Dragon (54:00) Challenging The Wage Price Spiral (01:01:13) Currency Itself Is A "Public Monopoly" (01:04:04) We Are NOT In A Recession, Says Mosler (01:11:21)Is The Solution To Inflation To Cut Government Spending? (01:16:30) Blockworks Research (01:17:28) The Debt Ceiling (01:24:08) The Dollar
Sun, 28 May 2023 00:50:00 -0000

The Debt Ceiling Approaches | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Macro Hive return to Forward Guidance to update listeners on the U.S. debt ceiling, which may be breached as early as June. Filmed on May 25, 2023. To access a 40% discount to an annual subscription of Macro Hive Prime, go to www.macrohive.com/jack. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Twitter https://twitter.com/firstkicktires Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_f Josephs latest piece on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/probing-lclor/ Joseph Wang YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) The Debt Ceiling (10:09) What Happens When The Treasury Runs Out Of Money? (18:20) Will The Fed Come To Rescue? (Yes, Say Dominique & Joseph) (27:19) What Counts As A "Default"? (32:21) MacroHive (32:57) How Might The Market React? (36:05) Are These "Magical Measures" Just A Temporary Fix? (37:50) Payment Prioritization (41:45) U.S. Treasury's Non-Marketable Debt Will Play A Key Role (50:02) Potential For "Huge Liquidity Drain" As Treasury Plans On Issuing $1 Trillion In Bills Over The Next Six Months (01:01:10) Dominique and Joseph's Views On The Economy (01:08:20) Joseph's Updated Views On Banks
Fri, 26 May 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Long Stocks, Long Dollar, Short Gold | Jason Shapiro

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of The Crowded Market Report, joins Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to share his contrarian trading style and to explain why he remains long stocks even after this years huge equity rally. Shapiro shares wisdom from his long career of trading, as well as why he is long the dollar and short gold. Filmed on May 25, 2023. ____ Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Jason's Early Years In Hong Kong (01:47) "Too Much Leverage Is A Bad Thing" (04:52) Importance of Journaling Your Trades (07:37) The Essence Of Successful Contrarianism (09:54) Why Jason Has Been Bullish On Stocks All Year (14:42) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report (17:54) Why Jason Is Short Gold (22:28) Permissionless (23:03) Futures Positioning vs. Positioning Of The Whole Market (28:22) Why Are Speculators Wrong At Extremes? (34:20) Why CTAs Performed So Poorly This Year (Commodity Trading Advisor) (40:22) Blockworks Research (41:22) You Need Confirmation From The Market (46:38) Long Stocks, Short Gold Remains High Conviction Trade (48:57) Stop Losses (50:36) Bank Stocks (51:55) Why Jason Is Short The Euro (53:12) Risk of Recession and Debt Ceiling (01:09:26) Why Vast Majority Of Investors Don't Beat The Index ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 22 May 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Bull Market In Oil Is Over (For Now) | Paul Sankey

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Oil market veteran Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical vs secular trends in the oil market that investors should be paying attention to. Highlighting how the current market is extremely difficult to trade directionally, as oil remains rangebound after it's 2022 highs of over $100 a barrel, Paul outlines both the supply & demand picture in 2023. Paul goes on to explain the four structural drivers of oil prices, energy companies profitability with oil sitting around the $70 mark & what investors can expect throughout the rest of 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Paul on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Paul's Oil Market Outlook (10:25) Oil Companies Profitability (11:37) Why Is Oil Demand Lower Than Expected In 2023? (17:40) Why Is This Oil Market So Tough To Trade? (19:42) The Four Structural Drivers Of Oil Prices (22:52) Permissionless (23:55) Are Oil Equties Cheap? (35:28) The Political Cycle Is Shorter Than The Energy Cycle (39:18) How Does Oil Perform During A Recession? (44:44) The Economics Of ESG (47:03) Blockworks Research (48:02) Warren Buffett Continues Buying $OXY (54:09) The Correlation Between Bank Stocks & Oil (57:26) Sankey Research (01:02:23) Small & Mid Size Oil Companies In Canada -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 19 May 2023 14:40:00 -0000

The Return Of Bank Runs | Sheila Bair, Former FDIC Chair

During her tenure as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011, Sheila Bair managed over 300 bank failures, including the collapse of Washington Mutual in September 2008, the largest bank failure in American history. Bair joins Forward Guidance to apply her vast experience to share insight on recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic. Filmed the afternoon of May 18, 2023. ____ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. ____ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Sheila Bair on Twitter https://twitter.com/SheilaBair2013 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Right Now, The Main Issue Is Interest Rate Risk (12:56) What Causes A Bank Run? (17:55)Are Bank Runs Faster In An Age of Mobile Banking? (21:55) Van Eck Ad (22:45) Money Market Funds and The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Is Where A Lot Of Bank Money Is Going (25:33) Risk Of Further Big Bank Consolidation (29:51) Best Time To Shut Down A Bank Is Friday Night (31:10) Federal Reserve Lending To Insolvent Institutions Increases The FDIC's Cost To Resolve Failed Banks (32:53) How To Know When To Shut Down A Failing Bank (34:51) "I Was Surprised At The Biden Administration's Level Of Involvement" (37:12) The Systemic Risk Determination, Explained (42:56) 2018 Loosening Of Regulation of Regional Banks (47:35) Forcing Banks To Raise More Equity (i.e. sell stock) (49:31) The Federal Reserve's Role As Bank Regulator ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 18 May 2023 14:15:00 -0000

Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China

Nicholas Glinsman, macro investor and co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on banks, commercial real estate, and China. Glinsman says that he and his partner Harald Malmgren expect a ban on new foreign investment into China will be imminently passed via executive order of U.S. President Biden. ____ Malmgren Glinsman Partners is a research partner of Forward Guidance. To get discounted access to the Malmgren Glinsman Daily note (Ahead Of The Heard), go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Forward%2520Guidance?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgern-glinsman-partners-daily-ahead-of-the-herd And use code Forward Guidance at checkout to get a discounted rate of $900/year. Ahead of The Heard typically is released at a daily cadence so subscribers can expect 5-6 issues per week. To obtain access to Malmgren Glinsmans institutional product, a long-form research note aiming to flag for large institutional investors important market-driving issues before they hit the news, go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Blockworks?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgren-institutional-research And use code Blockworks for discounted rate of $40,000 / year. Clients can be expect publication of research 1-4 times per month. ____ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The De-Dollarization Narrative (04:28) Maybe The Fed Is Not Done Hiking? (05:48) Banking System (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (32:30) Views on Bond Yields and Volatility (42:10) China and Reverse CFIUS (01:18:07) Imminent Ban On Foreign Investment Into China Is Coming, Says Glinsman ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 15 May 2023 16:54:18 -0000

The Fed's Playbook for Fighting Bank Panics, Now vs. The Great Depression | Dr. Jane Knodell

Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and Author joins the show for a historical comparison between the previous bank runs & the banking turmoil of 2023. Knodell reflects on the development of the U.S banking system throughout history, the measures taken today to curb deposit flight and how the Federal Reserve ultimately became the lender of last resort. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Referenced In The Show: Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve: A Historical Perspective on Wartime Amendments to the Federal Reserve Act: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368342410_Making_a_Central_Bank_Out_of_the_Federal_Reserve_A_Historical_Perspective_on_Wartime_Amendments_to_the_Federal_Reserve_Act Fighting Financial Crises Learning from the Past Gary B. Gorton and Ellis W. Tallman: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo26527334.html Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Historial Comparisons To 2023's Banking Turmoil (02:37) The Difference Between Solvency & Liquidty In A Bank Run (07:17) Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve (11:42) The Role of Gold In The Federal Reserve's History (17:00) Why Did Gold Flee To The Fed In 1917? (22:57) Permissionless ad (24:00) The Federal Reserve: The Lender Of Last Resot (29:51) How Has The Banking System Developed Throughout U.S History? (35:21) The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (38:11) The Bank Term Funding Program (41:14) All Roads Lead Back To Congress (46:50) Learning From The Lesson's Of The Great Depression (55:37) The Looming Debt Ceiling (58:19) Blockworks Research (59:20) The Trillion Dollar Coin Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 12 May 2023 17:45:00 -0000

Why Bank Money Is Disappearing | Patrick Perret-Green

Last year, Patrick Perret-Green, veteran bond trader and macro strategist, warned his clients that plummeting liquidity at regional U.S. banks could cause serious issues. Now that these issues have made themselves apparent with the fall of three U.S. banks, Perret-Green of PPG Macro joins Forward Guidance to share his views on bank liquidity, loan growth, and credit risks within banks as well as shadow banks. Filmed on May 11, 2023. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/PPGMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:28) Patrick's 2022 Warnings About Banks (10:33) Credit Risks (15:49) Shadow Banking System (19:35) Permissionless (20:38) Loan Growth (29:17) Global Liquidity Is Collapsing (34:32) Foreign Banks Are Having Issues (37:20) The Pain Trade Is For The Dollar To Go Higher (40:11) Rate Hikes "An Economic War Crime"? (43:34) Commercial Real Estate (49:42) Bank Run Risks (56:14) Blockworks Research (57:16) Where Are Interests Rates Headed? (01:00:54) China (01:08:50) Closing Thoughts
Thu, 11 May 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Why The U.S. Dollar Could Fall Even In A Recession | Jens Nordvig

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors. ____ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData Follow MarketReader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:27) Tracking Capital Flows (01:43) Where Is The Money Going? (19:53) The Dollar And The Euro (25:30) Blockworks Research (26:29) Is The "De-Dollarization Narrative" Backed Up By The Data? (38:04) Is China Actually Dumping U.S. Treasurys? (41:14) Central Banks' Swap-Adjusted FX Reserves Do Not Show Significant De-Dollarization (46:18) Bearish Near-Term Case For The Dollar (57:14) Permissionless (58:15) About MarketReader's Emerging Artificial Intelligence Capabilities (01:11:52) Closing thoughts On The Dollar & Stock Market Correlation ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 08 May 2023 11:06:00 -0000

Michael Pettis: China's Economic Growth Model Is Dying

Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:40) China's Economic Growth Model (18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China (26:01) Van Eck ad (26:51) Domestic Consumption In China (35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works (39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble (43:20) Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China (49:01) Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue (01:00:46) The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy (01:02:45) Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity? (01:04:55) Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S. (01:08:28) Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough
Thu, 04 May 2023 22:55:00 -0000

The Feds "Controlled Demolition" of The Financial System | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her thoughts on May 3rds Federal Reserves meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the ongoing issues at several regional U.S. banks. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. (00:00) Intro (11:02) When Will The Fed Pivot (Cut Rates)? (15:40) Powell Wants To Get Rid Of The Fed Put (25:20) Calling Inflation "Transitory" Was "A Path To Hell" (29:11) "Powell Will Stand His Ground" (34:30) Permissionless (35:34) The Balance Sheet (40:17) Powell Won't Save The Banks (47:41) Blockworks Research (48:41) The Debt Ceiling (54:08) "This Is Going To Be A Really Ugly Recession" (58:03) Door To A June Hike Is Ajar (59:11) The Bernanke Doctrine (01:01:26) Danielle's Views On Private Credit Are Evolving
Thu, 04 May 2023 16:55:00 -0000

Nick Timiraos: The Fed Doesn't Want Bank Failures In The News

Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage joins Jack Farley to share his analysis of yesterdays meeting of the Federal Reserves Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed at 10am ET on May 4, 2023. --- Timiraos' article on May 3 Fed meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-rates-signals-potential-pause-eb264784 Timiraos article on 2006 hiking cycle: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-fed-debate-17-years-ago-reveals-about-its-rate-deliberations-now-4835936 Timiraos book, Trillion Dollar Triage: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817 --- Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ --- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 03 May 2023 21:58:00 -0000

Fed Downplays Bank Crisis As Another Bank Teeters | Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Forward Guidance to break down the Federal Reserves meeting on May 3rd, during which Fed Chair Powell noted that conditions in the banking sector have improved. Shortly thereafter, shares of PacWest Bank ($PACW) plummeted. Bianco and Farley also explore whether this is the Feds last hike in interest rates, and how the consequences of the looming debt ceiling will impact the banking system and markets. Note: this interview started to filmed at 3:30pm ET on May 3rd, almost immediately after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference, but BEFORE the crash in $PACW (over 50%), which occurred shortly after 4:30pm ET. Bianco and Farleys discussion of PacWest occurred before PacWest announced it was pursuing a strategic sale. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 02 May 2023 19:50:00 -0000

A Wild Ride In The Oil Market | Josh Young

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Josh Young Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Bison Interests joins the show for a deep dive into the oil and gas industry. After a record year in 2022 for oil & gas, with energy being the best performing sector, 2023 has sent investors on "a wild ride" with crude oil retracing gains from its high of around $120 to around $75. Josh walks through the relative performances of the oil majors, and the small/mid size cap companies he specializes in. As many oil & gas companies have restructured their balance sheets and paid down overhanging debt, is the stage set for an outperformance of the oil & gas companies that incurred tougher times throughout the previous decade. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! Follow Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Referenced In The Show: The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy: https://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy-ebook/dp/B009TCWKLC Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) A wild Ride In The Oil Market (05:34) Oil Companies Profitability vs A Decade Ago (15:22) Are O&G Companies Investing In R&D, Or Share Buybacks? (18:57) Natural Gas (23:58) Are Rising Production Costs Impacting O&G Companies? (28:50) Permissionless (29:53) Searching For Low Decline Producers In The Oil Market (33:28) Baytex Energy (BTE) (40:45) Josh's Oil Price Outlook (56:19) Blockworks Research (57:19) Investing In O&G Companies In The U.S & Canada vs Rest of World (01:08:03) Overrated O&G Companies In The Small & Mid Cap Industry Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 01 May 2023 22:53:00 -0000

The Failure of First Republic Bank | Chris Whalen & Randy Woodward

Today First Republic, Americas 14th largest bank, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) who sold the vast majority of the stranded assets to banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM). Jack welcomes two veteran bankers, Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, for an in-depth look at why First Republic and how the banking system can move on from todays takeover. ____ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:48) The "False Narrative" About First Republic (04:44) "The Bondholders Will Get Toasted First" (07:06) "We Just Need More Time" (09:54) "The Fed's Got To Cut" (11:52) Credit Availablity Has Already Come Down (15:03) Why Did The Fed Buy Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)? (19:35) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (23:30) Mortgage REITs & Interest Rate Risk (37:36) "The Loss To The FDIC Will Grow (40:55) Permissionless (41:58) Is The Fed Really To Blame For Bank Failures? (Jack Pushes Back) (52:58) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (55:38) Blockworks Research (56:37) Moral Hazard Argument About Deposit Insurance (01:05:51) Tease At Future Interviews On Forward Guidance ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 01 May 2023 19:45:00 -0000

Dr. Perry Mehrling on The Dollar Standard, Globalization of Shadow Banking, and Charles Kindleberger

Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System, Dr. Mehrling shares insights on the extension of the dollar to the global south and globalization of shadow banking. Mehrling and Farley explore whether rumors of the dollars death are greatly exaggerated, and how the end of a zero-interest-rate-fueled credit cycle could be a little rocky. __ Money and Empire: https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/macroeconomics-and-monetary-economics/money-and-empire-charles-p-kindleberger-and-dollar-system?format=HB Money and Empire on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Empire-Kindleberger-Economic-Thinking/dp/1009158570 __ Follow Perry Mehrling on Twitter https://twitter.com/PMehrling Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ The New Lombard Street: https://www.amazon.com/New-Lombard-Street-Became-Dealer/dp/0691143986/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=i42Qi&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=144-5485129-5375822&pd_rd_wg=KL4l1&pd_rd_r=5ee218b8-1e89-4991-8a8d-ac9e7c073e06&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Perry Mehrling, Zoltan Pozsar, Daniel Neilson, and James Sweeney, Bagehot was a Shadow Banker: Shadow Banking, Central Banking, and the Future of Global Finance https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2232016 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:02) What Is The Global Dollar System? (02:32) The Dollar Is International, Not Domestic (06:43) The Inherent Instability Of Thought (08:49) "The Fed Learned Its Lesson From 2008" (11:45) Key Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (20:36) The Fall Of The Sterling Standard After World War 1 (24:02) Sterling Was The Standard, Not Gold (26:25) "The Crime Of 1971" Was Nixon's DePegging The Dollar From Gold, According to Kindleberger (27:44) Why Was There Inflation In The 1970s (Instead of Deflation)? (30:50) Next Few Years Will Be "A Little Rocky" (36:03) The Globalization Of Shadow Banking (39:06) Blockworks Research (40:05) Money Market Funds (MMFs), Comparison Between Now And Great Financial Crisis (43:44) "The Dollar System Seems To Be Holding Together" (46:45) The Four Prices Of Money (56:02) Permissionless (57:04) Kindleberger's Critique Of The Triffin Dilemma (01:06:48) The Myth Of Bretton Woods (01:12:32) What's Missing In Contemporary Understanding Of Kindleberger's School Of Thought __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 27 Apr 2023 22:50:00 -0000

Jared Dillian: Sentiment Is Still Really, Really Bad

Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why hes no longer bearish on natural gas, why he thinks the May Fed meeting could be a catalyst for gold, and why hedge fund managers who are still short officer REITs (real estate investment trusts) will get their faces hes no longer bearish on natural gas. He discusses several essays from his latest book, Those Bastards: 69 Essays On Life, Creativity, & Meaning. Filmed on April 17, 2023. ____ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:01) Shorting Commercial Real Estate Is A Crowded Trade (08:36) Outlook On Stocks (12:24) Healthcare Sector (14:53) Permissionless (15:56) "Gold Is Super Interesting" (19:26) Gold Mining Stocks (22:29) May Fed Meeting Could Be "Next Big Catalyst" For Gold (24:54) Is It Time To Get Bullish On Bonds? (27:25) "The Labor Market Will Weaken A Bit" (28:38) Jared's New Book (30:03) What Is Luck? (36:55) Blockworks Research (37:55) Is Finance Depraved?
Tue, 25 Apr 2023 20:06:00 -0000

Nathan Tankus on The "Pozsar Moment" In Shadow Banking

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Nathan Tankus Author at Notes on the Crises joins the show for a deep dive into the shadow banking system, recent financial crises and the current state of the banking system post SVB's collapse. Questioning conventional monetary theory, Nathan outlines his thesis authored in a recent paper released in January 2022 "The New Monetary Theory". Nathan also shares his thoughts on the current FDIC limit of $250,000 and how an increase in this limit could help prevent future bank panics. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Subscribe To Notes on the Crises: https://www.crisesnotes.com/ Follow Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NathanTankus Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: THE NIGHT THEY REREAD POZSAR (IN HIS ABSENCE): https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-night-they-reread-pozsar-in-his-absence/ The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Best-Way-Rob-Bank-Own/dp/0292754183 THE NEW MONETARY POLICY: https://files.modernmoney.network/M3F000001.pdf?ref=crisesnotes.com The Federal Government Always Money-Finances Its Spending: A Restatement: https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-federal-government-always-money/ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:20) What Is Shadow Money? (14:51) The Collapse of SVB (22:42) The Bank Term Funding Program (29:29) The March Banking Panic Was NOT A Systemic Crisis (31:23) The Savings & Loans Crisis (37:37) Bank Crisis... But The Fed Hiked Rates? (45:17) The New Monetary Policy (01:04:03) Modern Monetary Theory (01:13:03) Re-Thinking Government Borrowing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 24 Apr 2023 18:20:00 -0000

Jeff Snider: The Credit Crunch Is Here As Ultra Rare Bond Market Signal Flashes Red For First Time Since 2008

Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Jeff Snider https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:30) Money Is Getting Herded Into Highest Tier Of Collateral (07:54) Liquidity Preference Is Extreme (15:21) Treasurys Role In Banks' Asset & Liability Management (18:47) Credit Crunch (22:35) Public Ad (23:39) Are The Bank Runs Over? (30:42) Is The "Mild Recession" Forecast Plausible? (33:57) How Many More Rate Hikes Does The Fed Have In The Chamber? (35:41) The Fed's Efforts To Help The Banking System (BTFP, Discount Window, etc.) (39:40) Were Rate Hikes To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (43:08) Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) On Bank Deposit Levels (44:50) Was There "Money Printing" In 2020? (47:42) Did The Banks Take Too Much Interest Rate Risk in 2020 & 2021? (49:48) Defining "Deflationary Money" (55:12) LIBOR Futures Will Be Phased Out, Right? (56:37) Counterargument: Debt Ceiling Is The Reason Short-Term Treasury Bills Are Trading At Such A Premium (01:02:32) Summary Of Jeff's Views On Credit Crunch & Deflationary Money
Sat, 22 Apr 2023 11:00:00 -0000

An Update On The "March Banking Panic" | Weekly Round Up

This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 21 Apr 2023 15:09:04 -0000

Brent Johnson on Why The De-Dollarization Narrative Is Overhyped

Recent efforts by foreign leaders have led some to claim that the U.S. Dollar system will soon cease to be the global reserve currency. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to Forward Guidance to argue that these arguments are utterly wrong, and he explains why in great detail. He expects a major squeeze to occur sometime over the next two years, although he and Jack discuss the potential for Chinas re-emergence from recession as a catalyst for more potential short-term dollar weakness. Filmed on April 20, 2023. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:32) "You Shouldn't Go All-In Against The United States & The U.S. Dollar" (12:06) Van Eck (12:55) Why Trade Is Invoiced In Dollars (19:01) The Bretton Woods System And The Rise Of "EuroDollars" (Offshore Dollars) (24:18) "Don't Confuse A Possibility With A Probability" (30:52) Sanctions (33:56) The Gold Standard And The Necessary Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (38:44) Bitcoin Standard Would Be "Massively Deflationary" (40:52) Why Are Central Banks Buying Gold? (42:05) When And Why Does The Dollar Spike Higher Against Other Currencies? (47:58) The Debt Ceiling (58:13 China's Belt and Road Initiative (01:00:58) Fears Of A Sovereign Debt Crisis (01:05:06) Currency Hegemons Will Continue To Be The Norm ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 20 Apr 2023 20:56:57 -0000

Do Banks Have Enough Capital? | Dr. Martien Lubberink

The more capital a bank holds, the more losses it can take before going bust. Dr. Martien Lubberink, professor at Victoria University of Wellington, joins Forward Guidance to define regulatory bank capital and put it in context of the conspicuous bank meltdowns in March. Lubberink opines on the issues at Credit Suisse & Silicon Valley Bank through the lens of bank capital, and he shares insights on the health and nature of the banking system of New Zealand, where he currently resides. Filmed on April 6, 2023. -- Follow Martin Lubberink on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/cetier1 Read Martin Lubberinks blog athttps://capitalissues.co/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Pieces discussed in the interview: The Value of Kiwibank Fresh RBNZ Dashboard data shows New Zealands largest banks on track to meet increasing capital ratio requirements Apply to host the Lightspeed podcast on Blockworks ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Researchhttps://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:39) Lubberink's Background In Bank Capital During The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (08:04) What Is Bank Capital? (13:37) Silicon Valley Bank Was A Masterclass In "How To Not Run A Bank" (18:16) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (25:55) Permissionless (26:59) Important Regulatory Bank Capital Ratios (37:26) Credit Suisse & Additional Tier 1 Bonds (46:14) Operational Risks (48:11) "New Zealand Banks Are Among The Most Resilient Banks In The World (51:32) Interest Rate Hedging Again (Jack Is Obsessed) (55:10) Blockworks Research (56:11) Kiwi Bank (01:01:33) Monetary Policy Of Reserve Bank of New Zealand (NZ's Central Bank) (01:04:08) Real Estate Boom in New Zealand (01:06:59) Relaxation Of U.S. Banking Regulation
Tue, 18 Apr 2023 20:11:00 -0000

Money Supply Is Falling By Most Since Great Depression | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her findings on the problems brewing in commercial real estate, the collapse in money supply (M2) growth, and her updated views on the auto and housing markets. -- Today's show is sponsored byPublic.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going tohttps://public.com/forwardguidance -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Boothhttps://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:33) "Deathly Silence" In Private Equity World (16:13) "There Will Be A 'Mark-to-Market' Moment" (19:31) Issues In Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (21:47) Public ad (22:50) Auto Loans Are In Distress (30:36) The Residential Housing Market (36:39) ill Inflation Fall? (38:08) Fed Expects A Recession (41:12) Money Growth Is Lowest Since Great Depression (44:30) The Debt Ceiling (51:09) The Bernanke Doctrine In Jeopardy? (QE whil rates are above zero) (01:03:40) Quantitative Easing Is NOT Back, Says Danielle (01:09:28) Closing Thoughts On Credit Crunch -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 17 Apr 2023 22:40:00 -0000

PIMCOs Cash King On Liquidity, Repo, Debt Ceiling, And Yield Curve Inversion | Jerome Schneider

Jerome Schneider, managing director at PIMCO, is a maestro of short-term funding markets. He oversees PIMCOs >$300 Billion pool of short-term liquidity for investors (the asset side) and also devises strategies to efficiently and robustly fund PIMCOs longer-term investments (the liability side). Schneider gives in-depth insight on how key indicators in the short-term funding world have changed during and after the March 2023 banking crisis, such as liquidity, repo, and the shape of yield curve. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, April 17th, 2023. To learn more about PIMCO, go to http://pimco.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (07:47) Why Are 1-Month Treasury Bills Trading So Expensive ("Rich") To Other Interest Rates? (11:42) The Debt Ceiling (19:02) Permissionless (20:05) The Fed Has Done A Tremendous Job In Cutting Off Tail Risks For Funding (30:43) Thoughts On An Inverted Yield Curve (36:27) The Fed Pivot (41:59) Credit Risk In Short-Term Assets (44:16) Liquidity As Offense Rather Than Liquidity As Defense (48:44) Blockworks Research (49:44) Funding PIMCO's Leveraged Strategies (56:03) Closing Thoughts On Opportunities in Short-Term Markets (59:55) Will Banks Have To Pay More For Deposits?
Mon, 17 Apr 2023 14:05:00 -0000

Key Principles For Successful Trading | Simon Ree

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Simon Ree Author & Founder of The Tao Of Trading joins the show for a discussion on the key principles for becoming a successful trader. Simon takes us back to March 2020, a period which kicked off an aggressive bull market leading all the way up to 2022. In 2022, many market participants got caught offside as the aggressive rally suddenly turned into an equally as aggressive bear market. Now in 2023, the bulls and bears standoff at a cross roads waiting for the next indicator of where markets are heading. Simon walks through the difficult past 3 years in markets, and explains the key principles to remember when investing in this current market paradigm. -- Follow Simon: https://twitter.com/simon_ree Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Simon's Entry To Finance: Black Monday (03:37) What Makes A Successful Trader? (05:10) Consistency Is A Superpower (07:29) I am Not A Trader, I am A Risk Manager (09:50) The Process of Making A Trade (12:54) Trading A Bull Market (17:41) Trading A Bear Market (19:14) Permissionless ad (20:17) Trading The Inflationary Bear Market of 2022 (29:05) Market Positioning, Sentiment & Short Squeezes (34:13) Blockworks Research (35:13) The Principles of Technical Analysis (37:19) Trading The Bull Market of 2020 (40:01) Assessing Current Market Conditions 946:02) The TAO of Trading (52:53) The Biggest Opportunities In Markets (56:26) How To Compound Your Returns (01:02:54) Finding The Right Trading Strategy For You -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 14 Apr 2023 17:35:00 -0000

Chris Whalen on Big Bank Earnings and the Return of Credit Risk

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to comment on the ample and growing earnings of the big banks (particularly JPMorgan Chase, whose stock surged over 7% on rosy net income and increasing deposits). Whalen argues that banks unrealized losses on their securities due to interest rate risk have gone down dramatically as interest rates have fallen since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10. However, he expects banks cost of funds (what they have to pay for deposits) to continue to rise and he makes the case that the primary headwind for banks is not interest rate risk, but credit risk. Whalen argues that while there could be more bank failures ahead, he expects it will be the outlier banks that fail, not the mainstream banks. This interview was filmed the morning of Friday, April 14th, shortly after large American banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported their earnings for the first quarter of 2023. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:55) "Banks Have Lots Of Commercial Real Estate Exposure" (06:24) Banks' Unrealized Losses Have Gotten Smaller Over The Past Month (08:25) The Return Of Credit Risk (16:06) Is The Banking Crisis Moderating? If So, Why? (19:18) Van Eck Ad (20:06) There's A Slowdown in Lending (22:08) Quantitative Easing's Distortion Of Bank Balance Sheets (24:32) Chris Suggests The Fed Sell Securities Into The Market (28:27) "The Bid For Risk Free Dollar Assets Is Still Off The Scale" (30:12) Recent Rally In Bonds Has Helped Bank Book Value (36:23) "People Love To Say The Word 'Hedge' And Then Change The Subject"
Wed, 12 Apr 2023 23:15:00 -0000

The Commercial Real Estate Default Cycle Has Only Just Begun | Dan McNamara

Dan McNamara, veteran commercial MBS trader and founder of Polpo Capital, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the commercial real estate (CRE) default cycle has only just begun. McNamara notes that the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank is causing regional banks to curb lending to commercial real estate projects, and that as a result many property developers will strategically default and walk away from the buildings. McNamara shares why he has been shorting the riskier tranches of CRE loans via the CMBX, and he tells Jack Farley why the cascade of defaults he expects will cause tremendous damage to the securitized market for CRE loans. Key terms for this interview: CRE = Commercial Real Estate CMBS = Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities CMBX = a synthetic tradable index referencing a basket of CMBS CLO = Collateralized Loan Obligation LTV = Loan-to-value ratio Filmed on April 11, 2023. Follow Dan McNamara on Twitter https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:01) Office Properties Could Decline by 50% Or More (15:25) Defaults WIll Lead To Forced Selling (20:03) Why Rising Interest Rates Has Imperiled Many Commercial Real Estate Deals (23:25) Regional Banks Are Curbing Lending After Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (30:01) Differences Between This and The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) And "The Big Short" (35:03) Shorting Tranches of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (42:09) Views on Highly-Rated Tranches (AAA- and AA-) (45:03) Interest Rate Risk (Duration) Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (47:45) "We Are Pretty Market Neutral (50:17) "We Think The Credit Curve Is Still Too Flat" (54:44) The "Refinancing Game" Is Over (01:11:54) If McNamara Is Right About Commercial Real Estate, How Systemic Will This Be?
Mon, 10 Apr 2023 13:41:00 -0000

Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang: A Monetary Plumbing Masterclass

On today's episode of Forward Guidance Lou Crandall, Chief Economist of Wrightson ICAP & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show to discuss the fallout of the recent bank panic. With two monetary plumbing experts on the show, we take the opportunity to cover a wide range of topics including the real reason bank deposits were leaving banks, the impact of the record $2 trillion parked in the reverse repo, how the Fed can use interest rates to control financial stability and the looming debt ceiling. In the opaque world of financial plumbing, there are no two better guests to welcome to the show, but to hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 10/4/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Lou: https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Silicon Valley Bank, Reminiscent of The Savings & Loan Crisis? (06:08) Why Are Deposits Leaving Banks? (11:30) The Plumbing of Treasury Debt (21:34) The Reverse Repo Is A Danger To The Banking System (34:12) Public.com Ad (35:18) How The Fed Can Control Financial Stability Using Interest Rates (50:39) The Debt Ceiling (01:05:56) The Reserve Gap (01:07:43) The 2019 Repo Crisis: Everyone Has A Plan, Until They Get Punched In The Nose (01:13:57) Will Banking Turmoil Lead To A Credit Crunch? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 06 Apr 2023 15:55:00 -0000

A Recession Is Somewhat Unavoidable, Says Liz Ann Sonders

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, joins Jack Farley to share her data-driven investment outlook at a challenging time for global markets. Sonders argues that before the turmoil in the regional banking sector, the U.S. was already in a rolling recession where weakness rolled throughout different parts of the economy. Now, after the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March, Sonders thinks an official recession (i.e. one declared as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER), is more likely, and she says that she thinks a recession is somewhat unavoidable. Given these headwinds, Sonders investment outlook is that it could be a bumpy ride in the short-term. However, Sonders and Farley discuss the importance of a long-term outlook and how market timing very frequently underperforms buy-and-hold strategies. Filmed on April 4th, 2023. __ Todays show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Follow Charles Schwab on Twitter https://twitter.com/CharlesSchwab Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Some of Liz Ann Sonders recent research at Charles Schwab: Under Pressure: Fed Hikes in Face of Bank Turmoil: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting 2023 Quarterly Market Outlook: Fed on the Brink? https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/quarterly-market-outlook Another One Bites the Dust: Banking Saga Continues: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/another-one-bites-dust-banking-saga-continues Caveat Emptor: Important Market Shifts Underway: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/caveat-emptor-important-market-shifts-underway The Price You Pay: A Look at Equity Valuations: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/price-you-pay-look-equity-valuations __ Timestamps: (00:35) The Fed Has Broken Something (03:09) Rate Cuts Might Be Further Away Than The Market Thinks (05:58) Already In A "Rolling Recession" (17:37) Have The Odds Of A Severe Recession (Rather Than Mild) Increased After The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (19:59) Investment Outlook For Stocks (23:11) VanEck Ad (23:59) Equity Valuations: Are Stocks Cheap or Expensive? (33:37) Short-Term Outlook: "Some More Bumps In The Road" (36:12) Time In The Market vs Timing The Market (39:27) Liquidity and Gold (41:28) Sectors And Factors Leading The Stock Market (44:14) "Growth vs. Value" Is A False Choice (49:59) International Developed Markets and Emerging Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 05 Apr 2023 11:00:00 -0000

The Next Chapter In Interest Rate History | Dr. Richard Sylla

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Leonard N. Stern School of Business, author and financial historian Dr. Richard Sylla joins the show for a discussion on one of his most widely studied areas... interest rates. After authoring "A History of Interest Rates", a book which examined over four millennia of interest rates trhoughout periods of inflation, financial crises' and recessions, there's no one better equipped to discuss the Fed's current tightening cycle and how it impacted banks such as SVB in the Fed's current quest to fight inflation. Just how severe is this current tightening cycle when compared to other times in history? According to Dr. Sylla, this is nothing new as "history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: A History of Interest Rates: https://www.amazon.co.uk/History-Interest-Rates-Wiley-Finance/dp/0471732834 Alexander Hamilton on Finance, Credit, and Debt: https://www.amazon.com/Alexander-Hamilton-Finance-Credit-Debt/dp/0231184565 Alexander Hamilton, Central Banker: Crisis Management During the U.S Financial Panic of 1792:https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/research/alexander_hamilton_central_banker.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) A Return To Normalcy For Interest Rates (05:10) How Interest Rate Rises Led To SVB's Collapse (09:24) The First Bank of The United States (13:36) Paul Volcker's Historic Interest Rate Rises (20:35) Why We Have Inflation Now... But Not Post 2008 (28:03) Permissionless (29:06) The Fed's Between A Rock & A Hard Place (32:03) The Savings & Loan Crisis (37:41) All Signs Point Towards A Recession (44:59) Blockworks Research (45:59) What An Inverted Yield Curve Really Indicates (48:49) A Banking Panic Solution, Through The Eyes of Alexander Hamilton (57:03) How ZIRP Caused Problems In The Financial System -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 04 Apr 2023 15:17:00 -0000

The Bank Panic Is Already Over (Heres Why) | John Maxfield

John Maxfield, banking specialist and author of the Maxfield on Banks Substack, joins Jack to discuss the history and future of the U.S. banking system. Drawing on his wide-ranging historical knowledge, Maxfield notes that when it comes to banks, failure is the norm, not the exception. Maxfield argues that the acute phase of the banking panic in the U.S. is likely over, as loan yields will rise and deposit flight will slow down. Maxfield makes the case that, paradoxically, a serious cause of bank failure is not just not enough liquidity: often banks fail because there was too much liquidity. Maxfield and Farley take an in-depth look at Silicon Valley Banks enormous influx in deposits, which more than tripled since the first quarter of 2020, which they used to buy an enormous amount of securities that lost value as the Fed raised rates. Filmed on April 3, 2023. ____ Follow John Maxfield on Twitter https://twitter.com/MaxfieldOnBanks Maxfield on Banks Substack: https://maxfieldonbanks.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:14) "Failure Is The Rule, Not The Exception" When It Comes To Banking (06:51) Diagnosing Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) Collapse (16:45) Excess Liquidity Is The Problem, Not The Solution (22:58) "Interest Rate Risk Can Be As Deadly As Credit Risk" (27:04) Permissionless (28:08) Some Banks' Unrealized Losses Exceed Book Value (36:22)Is The Bank Panic Over? (John Says Yes) (39:51) "Banks Will Always Make Money" (44:33) Will Banks Decrease Their Lending? (52:17) Blockworks Research (53:15) How Did Banks' Manage Their Interest Rate Risk? (58:02) Assumptions About Deposit Duration Play A Key Role In Asset Liability (Mis)Matching (01:05:03) About The Maxfield On Banks Substack (01:07:40) Parallel To The Savings & Loan Crisis (01:10:55) Big Banks Get Bailed Out, Small Banks Don't (Unfair?) (01:11:47) Executive Compensation And Bank Performance (An Inverse Relationship) (01:13:27) Bank Insolvency Is Not Necessarily A Death Sentence (01:21:01) What Banks Need To Learn From SVB's Collapse ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 03 Apr 2023 11:20:00 -0000

Peter Stella & Joseph Wang on Debt Death Spirals, Monetarism, and The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level

Peter Stella, Former Head of the IMF Central Banking Division, joins Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and author at Fedguy.com, and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on: -what really causes inflation -monetarism, fiscal theory of the price level, and modern monetary theory (MMT) -the unrealized losses on the Feds balance sheet -why yield curve control likely wont be necessary (or so Peter argues) -the longer the duration of a governments debt, the less inflation is required to inflate it away -when a central bank incurs unrealized losses, who wins and who loses? Filmed on March 29, 2023. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wangs writings: https://fedguy.com/ Josephs latest piece, Ameridollars: https://fedguy.com/ameridollars/ Peter Stella on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Stellar_Consult Peter Stellas work: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/ Do Central Banks Need Capital? by Peter Stella: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Do-Central-Banks-Need-Capital-2260 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:15) Peter Stella's Background At The International Monetary Fund (IMF) (03:55) Joseph Wang On The Flaws Of Monetarism (05:52) Milton Friedman: It's The Government That Prints Money (07:56) The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level (13:38) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (24:12) Real Value Of U.S. Debt Is Lower Now Than March 2020 (37:33) Permissionless (38:38) The Fed Has Huge Unrealized Losses On Its Balance Sheet (45:29) Details About The Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Purchases In 2020 (51:51) Did The Fed Help Wealthy Homeowners Refinance Their Mortgages In 2020? (54:21) Blockworks Research Plug (55:22) When The Federal Reserve Has Unrealied Losses On Its Balance Sheets, Who Loses and Who Gains? (01:13:50) Joseph Wang's Summary Of This Conversation (01:15:08) Yield Curve Control and Potential Debt Death Spiral ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 30 Mar 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Commercial Real Estate Is In Serious Trouble | Nick Halaris

Nick Halaris, President of real estate investment firm Metros Capital, joins Jack to share insight on the challenges commercial real estate faces after a surge in interest rates and the fall of two U.S. banks. The phrase commercial real estate is a catch-all terms that refers to offices, apartment buildings (multi-family), retail, and industrial spaces. Unlike residential real estate, which is typically financed with long-term fixed-rate mortgages, a lot of commercial real estate was financed with floating rate debt, which means that as interest rates rose last year, the interest expense of some commercial real estate developers rose dramatically. Halaris argues that the turmoil in the banking system will likely induce banks to tighten their lending, which would inflict further hardship onto commercial real estate, much of which is financed via smaller regional banks. Filmed on Tuesday, March 28, 2023. ____ Nick Halaris website: https://nickhalaris.com/ Profit+ Subscribe Link: https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/ Nick Halaris on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NickHalaris Nick Halaris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-halaris-4a25b93/ ____ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:25) What Is Commercial Real Estate? (03:20) Interest Rates Have A Huge Impact on Real Estate Valuations (11:48)"Commercial Real Estate Is In Serious Trouble" (16:58) Delinquency Rates Are Rising... (19:13) Real Estate Is No Longer An Inflation Hedge (22:45) Permissionless Ad (23:48) Real Estate "Cap Rates" And Why They Are So Often Misunderstood (26:53) "Accounting Games" In Real Estate (35:02) How Bank Turmoil Will Impact Real Estate (38:42) The End Game For Real Estate (44:30) "it's Really Hard To Get A Loan" (46:37) Prices Will Go Down More (48:36) Blockworks Research Ad (49:36) Silver Lining: Rates Could Go Down (53:33) Retail Real Estate (Shopping Malls, etc.) (54:39) The Housing Market Will Probably Remain Strong (59:29) Private Equity's Investment Into Housing (01:01:51) Nick Halaris' Newsletter, Profit Plus (01:04:25) Closing Thoughts On Rising Interest Rates ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 27 Mar 2023 05:05:00 -0000

Former Central Banker on China, Global Discord, and Financial Stability | Sir Paul Tucker

Sir Paul Tucker, research fellow at The Harvard Kennedy School and former deputy governor of The Bank of England, joins Forward Guidance to discuss ideas from his latest book, Global Discord: Values And Power In A Fractured World Order. Tucker tells Jack Farley that Chinas growing economic might and rejection of liberal values poses a challenge to the U.S. role as global hegemon, and he details ways to reinvigorate international cooperation during the current period of geopolitical strife. Tucker shares his views on the recent turmoil in the banking system, weighing on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the acute need for bank resolution that can maintain financial stability while winding down ailing banks. Tucker and Farley also discuss concepts such as the Triffin Dilemma, the offshore (Eurodollar) dollar system, and central banks role as lenders of last resort. __ Global Discord from Princeton Press: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691229317/global-discord Global Discord on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Global-Discord-Values-Power-Fractured/dp/0691229317 __ About Paul Tucker: http://paultucker.me/resources/ About Tuckers work at The Harvard Kennedy School: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/fellows/research-fellows#sir_paul_tucker More about todays guest: For over thirty years, Sir Paul Tucker was a central banker, and a member of the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee from 2002. He was Deputy Governor from 2009 to late 2013, including serving on the Financial Policy Committee (vice chair) and Prudential Regulatory Authority Board (vice chair). He was knighted by Britain in 2014 for his services to central banking. Internationally, he was a member of the steering committee of the G20 Financial Stability Board, and chaired its Committee on the Resolution of Cross-Border Banks to solve too big to fail. Tucker was a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements, and was chair of the Basel Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems from April 2012. After leaving central banking, Tucker was chair of the Systemic Risk Council from December 2015 to August 2021. He now writes at the intersection of political economy and political philosophy as research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. In addition to Global Discord, Tucker is also the author of Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State (2018). __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:55) The Rise Of China Will Have Immense Consequences On A Global Scale (04:44) Shortcomings of Trade Policy and Enforcement (10:41) Downsides of U.S.' Trade Deficit (20:18) The Bretton Woods Regime (21:59) The Triffin Dilemma (26:32) The Eurodollar System (27:31) The Fed's Swap Lines In 2008 (28:49) Importance of Multi-Disciplinary Understanding For Policymakers (31:17) The Debt Ceiling (21:27) Thucydides' Trap (25:57) The Contest Between China and The U.S. Is "Everywhere" (39:26) Document 9 of The Chinese Communist Party (45:29) Inflation (49:37) Regional Bank Failure In The U.S. (55:43) The Takeover Of Credit Suisse By UBS (01:02:49) Defining A "Bailout" As A Use Of Taxpayer Money (01:07:09) Bagehot's Dictum (01:15:31) Credit Suisse Contingent Convertible ("CoCo") Bonds (01:17:55) Tying Geopolitical And Banking Together __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 23 Mar 2023 21:40:00 -0000

The Next Phase Of The Banking Crisis | Joseph Wang & Randy Woodward

Today Jack interviews Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James Financial, and Joseph Wang, author at https://fedguy.com/, for a conversation on how the recent banking turmoil has muddled the Federal Reserves inflation-fighting mission. Woodward, a banking veteran with a rare understanding of the regional banks investment portfolio, gives a glimpse into the interest-rate exposure (duration) of the mid-sized and community bank community that is unavailable by just looking at public filings. Woodward argues that Silicon Valley Banks (SVB) fall was not due to its interest rate risk management and that the Federal Reserve is to blame. Wang vehemently (but very politely) disagrees and what ensues is a masterclass on the most salient issues facing the U.S. banking industry. Filmed on Thursday, March 23, 2023, a day after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) Joseph's Take On March Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC) (04:59) Is The Fed To Blame For The Fall Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (12:35) Available-For-Sale (AFS) vs. Held-To-Maturity (HTM) Accounting Treatment (26:16) Public.com Ad (27:20) Was Silicon Valley Bank's Lack of Interest Rate Hedges Negligent? (34:30) There's No Way To Hedge Perfectly" (41:10) Uninsured Deposit Base As A New Vulnerability For U.S. Banks (53:01) The Psychological Aspect of Bank Runs (57:07) Bernanke on The Great Depression: Bad Visuals Are Self-Fulfilling Prophecies (01:00:06) Should The FDIC Deposit Guarantee Be Raised? (01:02:39) Will Bank Turmoil Cause Banks To Curb Lending? (01:06:41) How Many More Times Will The Fed Hike (If At All)? (01:08:39) BTFP is NOT Quantitative Easing, Says Joseph Wang (01:10:13) Central Banking 101 (01:14:22) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 22 Mar 2023 21:16:00 -0000

Michael Howell: Can The Fed Keep Raising Rates During A Banking Crisis? | Michael Howell

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in! ____ Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 21 Mar 2023 21:38:00 -0000

Something Systemic Has Happened | Daniel Neilson

Does the ongoing turmoil in the banking world constitute a Minksy moment? Daniel Neilson, assistant professor of monetary economic at Bard College at Simons Rock and author of Minsky (2019), argues yes. Neilson explores the potential of contagion within the banking world, and he makes the case that the Federal Reserves Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) as well as the FDIC backstop might make this banking crisis short-lived. Neilson shares with Jack Farley several in-depth charts on the Feds balance sheet that might indicate a turning point and the pair share their views on the Federal Reserves meeting on March 22, 2023. Filmed the afternoon of March 21, 2023. -- Daniel Neilsons article on Silicon Valley Bank: https://www.soonparted.co/p/silicon-valley-bank Daniel Neilsons article on Feds BTFP and other refinancing channels: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-ii Daniel Neilsons chart pack on the SVB Panic: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-iii Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (05:08) "This Is A Minksy Moment" (18:04) The Takeover of Credit Suisse (28:30) Permissionless (29:33) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) vs. The Fed's Discount Window (39:32) Can The Banking Panic Be Stopped In Its Tracks? (43:33) Blockworks Research (44:37)First Republic Bank ($FRC) and Bank Profitability (49:32) The Fed Readies Its Dollar Swap Lines (55:43) The Federal Reserve's New Hiking Path -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 20 Mar 2023 21:55:00 -0000

Marc Cohodes: The Stock Market Is Not A Game

Marc Cohodes, accomplished short-seller and financial bloodhound, is on the ultimate hot-streak. Over the past six months, he has been the sternest critic of FTX, Silvergate, and Signature Bank, all of which either have ceased operations as a corporate entity or will do so shortly. He shares what led him to call out FTX in the summer of 2022 (months before its bankruptcy in the fall) and why he shorted the stocks of Silvergate ($SI) and Signature Bank ($SBNY), which have both collapsed in value (a share of Silvergate trades at less than two dollars and shares of Signature Bank no longer trade after it was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on March 12). Cohodes also explains the immense difficulties that short-sellers frequently face, and he shares his opinion on turmoil swirling around the U.S. regional banking system. Over the course of this interview, Cohodes makes several allegations which are solely his own opinion. Filmed the afternoon of March 20, 2023. ____ Follow Marc Cohodes on Twitter https://twitter.com/AlderLaneEggs Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (14:59) Silvergate and Signature Bank as "Publicly-Traded Crime Scenes" (23:47) Silicon Valley Bank (31:30) Is This Similar to 2008? (Answer: Not Really) (58:43) What Marc Is Working On Now (01:04:18) Blockworks Research (01:05:18) The Dangerous Life Of A Professional Short-Seller ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sun, 19 Mar 2023 19:05:00 -0000

The Banks Didnt Hedge Enough | Mustafa Chowdhury

For 40% off an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime (220 / year instead of 374 / year), go to https://macrohive.com/jack or use discount code JACK at checkout. Macro Hive sample report on Silicon Valley Bank (co-written by Mustafa Chowdhury): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/silicon-valley-bank-how-the-government-plans-to-contain-the-fallout/ ___ Just how bad was the risk management at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) when it came to the threat of rising rates? And now that rates have exploded higher over the past year, is this interest rate risk limited to only a few banks, or are these risks spread throughout the entire U.S. banking system? Jackstoday is uniquely qualified to answer these questions. Mustafa Chowdhury, chief rates strategist at Macro Hive, practically invented the field of interest rate risk management, and two decades ago he was successfully managing interest rate risk on Freddie Macs giant portfolio of mortgages worth hundreds of billions of dollars (several times that of Silicon Valley Bank). Chowdhury argues that, contrary to claims otherwise, the U.S. banking system was not sufficiently hedged for 2022's interest rate shock. Filmed on March 16, 2023. ___ Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:33) Mustafa Chowdhury's Background (4:39) "That's The Mortgage Game" (11:27) Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: Interest Rate Risk Lurking At The Scene Of The Crime (21:14) How To Properly Hedge Interest Rate Risk Properly (27:37) Chowdhury Pioneered Use Of Swaptions In 1990s (29:36) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB): Who To Blame? (33:20) Accounting Treatment (Available For Sale Vs. Held-To-Maturity) (41:47) The Fed's Convexity Quantitative Easing (QE) Continues (50:35) Bank Profitability With Higher Deposit Costs (01:03:50) Interest Rate Risk Is Spread Throughout The U.S. Banking System (01:11:52) "There Will Be Fewer Bank Runs" Because Of FDIC Relief (01:19:29) Will Fed Cut In 2023? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 17 Mar 2023 13:25:00 -0000

This is NOT 2008 | Harris Kupperman

Harris Kuppy Kupperman, chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he doesnt think the ongoing turmoil in the regional banking system will have much effect outside on the economy or markets. He explains why he thinks the banking businesses do not make great investments. When Jack Farley asks what he does like, Kuppys answer is simple: oil. He explains why he remains exceptionally bullish on black gold and also shares a stock which he has invested in: Journey Energy. Lastly, Kuppy shares his dos and donts of investing. Filmed the afternoon of March 16, 2023. Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://kedm.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:58) The Run on Silicon Valley Bank (03:49) Will Measures By Fed Treasury & FDIC Be Enough To Prevent Future Panics? (05:55) Kuppy on Bank Stocks (10:26) Are Rising Rates Good Or Bad For Banks? (15:05) Blockworks Research (16:04) Kuppy Is Very Bullish On Oil (25:34) Natural Gas (29:10) Journey Energy (31:41) How To Value Oil Companies (36:14) Hedging At Oil Companies (37:33) Permissionless (38:36) Kuppy's Shorter-Term Market Views (44:19) Kuppy's "Dont's" of Investing (49:55) KEDM ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Mar 2023 10:06:00 -0000

Governor Kuroda: The Decades Most Consequential Central Banker

This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes! Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 15 Mar 2023 20:50:00 -0000

Lyn Alden: Bank Runs And The Financial Repression End Game | Lyn Alden

For some time now it has been the belief of many Fed-watchers that the Federal Reserve would continue to hike interest rates until itbreaks something. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to argue that the stunning collapse of two large U.S. banks represents such breakage. Alden tells Jack Farley that this damage will soon give way to a period of low real interest rates, where inflation runs above Treasury yields. Filmed the afternoon of March 15, 2023. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Aldens writings can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:43) The Cause Of The Turmoil In Banking System (07:08) Are Rising Interest Rates Actually Good For Banks? (08:50) Alden's Outlook on Banks As A Business (12:47) Has Something "Broken"? (15:38) Interest Rate Risk In The U.S. Banking System (22:43) Public Ad (23:48) Will Banks Become More Cautious About Making Loans? (31:11) Is The Fed's Campaign To Raise Interest Rates Over? (38:37) Debt, Demographics, and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) (53:28) Recession Risk (58:48) Stock Market During Financial Repression (01:01:29) Fractional Reserve Banking and "The Narrow Bank" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 14 Mar 2023 22:40:00 -0000

Michael Kao: Bank Bailout Allows The Fed To Tighten Even More

Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the turmoil in the banking sector, the consequences of the policy response from Washington, and the fate of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency. Kao argues that the Feds recent assistance to U.S. banks allows the Fed to hike more in order to fight inflation. Kao also shares his view on todays consumer price index (CPI) reading, China, and the global oil market. Recorded at 1pm ET on March 14, 2023. ____ Follow Michael Kao on Twitter: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Kaoboy Musings on Substack: https://urbankaoboy.substack.com/about Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:36) The Banking Panic Could Be Over, Says Michael Kao (09:14) It's The Shadow Banking Sector That's In Trouble (14:11) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy? (17:46) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy? (20:59) Blockworks Research (21:57) Do We Have Structural Inflation? (25:03) Black Swan: Oil To $300 (37:33) China's Oil Demand Is Lower Than Expected (41:13) The U.S. Dollar Wrecking Ball (46:24) Permissionless Ad (47:26) China's Hidden Debt (55:36) How Stable Is The U.S. Dollar As The Global Reserve Currency? (01:08:36) Closing Thoughts On Bank Panic & Federal Reserve ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 23:30:00 -0000

The Bank Bailout Will Create Moral Hazard | Joseph Wang & Stephen Miran

On Sunday, March 12, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced emergency measures to support U.S. regional banks experiencing bank runs. Were these actions a bailout and have they already created unintended consequences? To Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the New York Federal Reserve, the answer to both of these questions is an unambiguous yes. Joseph joins Stephen Miran, co-founder & portfolio manager at Amberwave Partners, alongside Jack Farley for an in-depth conversation on the banking intervention and its effect on moral hazard and monetary plumbing. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 4pm ET. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://twitter.com/SteveMiran Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wangs latest piece, Hidden To Market,on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/hidden-to-market/ The joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the FDIC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm Federal Reserves Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm __ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:47 The Bank "Bailout" 09:10 The Shocking Incompetence of Silicon Valley Bank 20:02 Will There Be More Bank Failures? 22:40 Public Ad 23:44 Moral Hazard in U.S. Banking Bailouts 27:55 Why Hasn't Silicon Valley Bank Been Bought? 31:35 Emergency Relief From Fed, Treasury, and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) 41:41 Consequences of Fed's BTFP Program on Big For Duration 52:25 Does Huge Fall In Interest Rates Mean Fed's Hiking Is Over? 01:01:13 February Inflation Data __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 21:48:00 -0000

The Bank Crisis Is "Overblown" | Joseph Wang

Signature and Silicon Valley Bank have collapsed. In this breaking news episode, hosts Jason Yanowitz and Jack Farley interview Joseph Wang to discuss the banking system failures and what to expect next. Joseph dives deep into the risk both banks took by not hedging interest rate risk, how this could have been avoided and whether other banks are in a similar position? Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 10:30am ET. NOTE: This was originally filmed as an episode of "Empire," the crypto podcast hosted by Santiago Santos and Jason Yanowitz, the co-founder of Blockworks. Listen to this episode on the Empire feed: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/signature-banks-demise-whos-next-joseph-wang/id1554930038?i=1000603971972 We then discuss if the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program was the right move? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune! - - Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7 Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Mar 2023 20:10:00 -0000

Danielle DiMartino Booth: A Banking Panic Makes The Feds Job More Difficult

To get a 20% discount off an annual subscription to Danielle DiMartino Booth https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/guidance and use code GUIDANCE Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to share her thoughts on how the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector will affect the economy and the Federal Reserves fight with inflation. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 1pm ET. -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:30:00 -0000

Crazy Things Are Happening In The Japanese Bond Market | Weston Nakamura

Check out Weston Nakamuras new show, Market Depth (First episode airs on Wednesday March 15): Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3YMXoHm Apple: https://apple.co/3ytqwZ8 -- Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unchanged, and maintaining a highly dovish stance as he exits. Governor Kuroda held his final press conference in which his only regret was that he was unable to achieve a sustained 2% inflation rate in Japan- despite a backdrop of Japans core CPI currently double that of the 2% objective, and many market participants and pundits calling for a final signature BOJ-shock for this meeting. Jack Farley welcomes back Weston Nakamura again for a third consecutive BOJ policy meeting review to discuss the deteriorating state of market dysfunction and the warped yield curve amidst the Bank of Japans unprecedented scale of continued easing. They also review Governor Kurodas history-shaping unprecedented tenure, as well as the incoming new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, and the behind-the-scenes scramble to find who Weston feels is a disaster of a pick for the post-Kurodanomics era, using references from the hit-series Breaking Bad for character context. Today also marks the beginning of another era, in which Tokyo-based derivatives trader and financial markets content creator Weston Nakamura officially joins Blockworks Macro to host a brand new podcast called Market Depth - in which Weston provides critical cross-asset market commentary and insights from Asia- where market activity and policy developments are having ever greater impact upon the global economy and market landscape. Market Depth debuts on Wednesday March 15th 2023, so be sure to follow the podcast on your favorite app, and subscribe to Blockworks Macro YouTube so that you dont miss an episode! -- Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:05) Kuroda (Departing BOJ Governor) As Gus Fring (13:19) Kazuo Ueda (Incoming BOJ Governor) (18:09) Frankenstein Policy (23:26) Japanese Inflation (27:45) Bank Stocks Fall In Japan (29:54) The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (36:37) Liquidity (43:04) Consequences For Japanese Yen -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 10 Mar 2023 20:31:00 -0000

Chris Whalen: The Fed Is To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

Today, Silicon Valley Bank, an institution with over $200 Billion worth of assets, failed. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why. Whalen attributes the collapse in book value of SVB Financial (the entity that owns Silicon Valley Bank) to the Feds rapid hikes in interest rates, which severely depressed the market value of the banks holdings. Whalen argues that, unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates and opens the discount window, the U.S. is at risk of a banking crisis. -- Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Mar 2023 14:05:00 -0000

Does Powell Mean Business? | David Hay

Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil. Hay describes how Volckers drastic actions turned him into a bond bull (Volcker meant business) for his entire career, but he shares why now he is not optimistic about bonds despite falling inflation and Fed Chair Powells spirited rate hikes. Farley asks Hay if Powell means business, and Hay shares his insights on corporate bonds, nuclear energy, and common investor mistakes. Hay also argues that unprofitable growth stocks could have another leg down as bond yields continue to rise. Follow David Hay on Twitter https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Haymaker Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/ __ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:38 Is The Bond Bull Market Over? 09:32 A Fiscal Funding Crisis? 11:09 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) 14:32 Are Rate Hikes Effective At Fighting Inflation? 17:44 Hay's Bearish View On Bonds 21:07Oil, Gas, Uranium, and Copper 30:04 Permissionless 31:05 Investing in Corporate Bonds 34:17 Individual Stock Ideas 37:26 New Lows In Stock Market? 40:33 Outlook on Energy Stocks: "Easy Money Has Already Been Made" 49:15 About Evergreen Gavekal and The Haymaker Substack 51:44 Learning From The Volcker Era: What Was 1980 & 1981 Like? 55:33 Does Powell Mean Business? 58:10 Blockworks Research Plug 59:07 Dos & Don'ts of Investing 01:06:09 The Most Crowded Trade Right Now 01:09:05 Another Down Leg In High-Valuation Stocks?
Mon, 06 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000

The Case For Bonds | Alfonso Peccatiello

Alfonso (Alf) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, higher for longer, the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on March 2, 2023. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass on Substack: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023 (08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer" (15:06) The Housing Market (28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf (33:16) Permissionless plug (34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession? (38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks (45:04)Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question) (48:35) Inflation (52:29) Research Plug (53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?" (56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing? (59:56) The Macro Compass -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sat, 04 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Breaking Down Warren Buffett's 2023 Shareholder Letter | Yun Li

Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM -- This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 03 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Navigating A "Structural Shift" In Markets | Joseph Wang & Martin Pelletier

Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealthjoins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point. With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the perfect catalyst for a sustained bull market, or not? We also discuss Joseph & Martin's thought on the labor market, the outlook for global central banks and the path ahead for 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Martin: https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Managing Money During 2022 (04:43) Markets Are Signalling A New "Turning Point" (10:19) 2008 Signalled A "Structural Shift" In Canadian Asset Management (15:41) The Bank of Canada... Follows The Fed (17:55) Energy Is The Most Hated Trade Out There (24:11) Natural Gas & Energy Producers (30:24) Permissionless Plug (31:26) Housing & Interest Rates In Canada (37:50) Are We Heading For A Recession? (40:06) 2020 Marked A "Structural Shift" (44:30) The Labor Market Remains Strong (52:46) The Anguish of Central Banking (57:42) The Role of Structured Notes In A Portfolio (01:07:30) The Path Ahead For 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 Mar 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Mike Green: Recession Approaches As Housing & Car Markets Weaken

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last years spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estate and auto lending that is only beginning to draw attention. Green concludes that the U.S. economy is headed towards a recession, and he then proceeds to explain zero day-to-expiry (0DTE) options and weigh hedging strategies in the volatility space. Filmed on February 28th, 2023. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance -- Mike Greens Substack: https://michaelwgreen.substack.com/ Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Simplify on Twitter https://twitter.com/SimplifyAsstMgt Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Is The Labor Market Truly Strong? (05:46) Where We Are In The Economic Cycle (08:40) Commercial Real Estate & Auto Market (10:59) Interest Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Economy (14:20) We Are Approaching A Recession (20:52) Explaining The Recent Rally (24:58)Is Liquidity Rising? (29:08) Public Ad (30:12) The True Cause Of Inflation (33:19) Debt Is Just A Tool (36:02) Outlook on Stocks And Bonds (38:25) What A Bear Market Dominated By Passive Flows Looks Like (42:47) Zero Day To Expiry Options (0DTE) (58:49) Conclusions about 0DTE Options (01:06:03) Simplify Asset Management (01:09:16) Advanced Discussion on Options & Hedging (01:13:29) Disclaimer on Options (01:14:24) Cash Is A Cheap Option -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 27 Feb 2023 12:45:00 -0000

Restrictions On Investments Into China Are Imminent | Harald Malmgren & Nicholas Glinsman

Right now, U.S. officials in Washington D.C. are preparing legislation that will cut off foreign investment into China. Thats according to Jacks two guests today, Harald Malmgren & Nick Glinsman. According to them, the Biden administration is preparing an executive order that will fundamentally alter Americas financial relationship with China. Harald Malmgren is an economist, ambassador, and former adviser to four U.S. presidents, and Nicholas Glinsman is an investor who has worked at macro hedge funds such as Brevan Howard. Their new venture Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Email jack@blockworks.co for discounted access to Malmgren Glinsman Partners (Daily newsletter $900 per year, weekly institutional product available via request). -- Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) The Fraying Of U.S China Relations (09:05) "China's Growth Model Is Dying" (18:33) Restriction of Foreign Investment In China - What Would It Look Like? (26:18) Are We In A New Economic Cold War? (35:31) Putin & Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine (41:31) "The Sternness of NATIO is New" (45:12) A Potential Peace Deal Negotiated By China? (51:49) "The Market Is Not Ready For This" (54:52) Malmgren-Glinsman Partners (59:12) Liquidity is NOT Rising, Says Malmgren (01:07:00) Is Credit Contracting? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 23 Feb 2023 12:25:00 -0000

Doomberg & Steve Keen: The Green New Deal and Energy Security

How should the world decarbonize its economy and maximize human flourishing? Steve Keen, post-Keynesian economist and Green New Deal proponent, explores this question with Doomberg, energy advocate and green chicken, in a no holds barred discourse on the future of energy and climate. -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Steve Keen on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfSteveKeen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Doomberg on Substack https://doomberg.substack.com/about Steve Keen Patreon https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) What Is Wrong With Current Energy Policy? (12:44) The Green New Deal (16:10) ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:20) "Garbage" Analysis of Climate Change by Neoclassical Economics (29:10) Permissionless Plug (30:12) Nuclear, Solar, and Wind (42:30) Government Action vs. Private Sector (51:07) Doom on Europe's Energy Situation (59:19) "I Would Be Nationalizing All Fossil Fuel Companies" (01:02:35) Research plug (01:03:33) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 20 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000

The Soft Landing Will Be Transitory | Bob Elliott & Andy Constan

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a soft landing scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesnt enter a recession. The odds of a soft landing appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last? Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates. Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192 -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is The Soft Landing? (04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low (12:45) January Inflation Data (19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates? (24:50) Outlook for Stocks (29:02) Permissionless Plug (30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound (36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade (41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening? (45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys (51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates (01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Learning From Financial Crises | Joseph Wang & Steven Kelly

What is a true financial crisis, how does it differ from the mere popping of a speculative bubble or a vanilla recession, and what are the current risks of a financial crisis right now? Steven Kelly, an expert on financial crises and Senior Research Associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) to discuss these questions. Wang, a former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve, shares his insight on why, despite the Feds quantitative tightening (QT) and rapid rate hikes, liquidity remains high. Kelly and Wang agree that the risk of a true financial crisis such as the one in 2008 is unlikely to occur, because as Kelly argues, banks have much more capital to endure losses. Filmed on February 13, 2023. -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Steven Kelly on bank regulation: https://rb.gy/isdjlm Joseph Wang on QThttps://rb.gy/fdwd5j -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) What Is A Financial Crisis? (05:14) "It's Really Hard To Find Capital In A Crisis" (08:16) Bank Capital Ratios (16:35) What Is The Risk Of A Financial Crisis Right Now? (22:06) The Federal Reserve As The Dealer Of Last Resort (27:20) Public Ad (28:28) Joseph Wang On The Fed During March 2020 (34:25) Do Rate Hikes and Quantitative Tightening (QT) Increase Risk of Financial Crisis? (36:51) Why Is Liquidity Rising? (42:51) What Is The "Problematic" Collateral Now? (46:36) "Everything Looks Fine" (50:49) Unrealized Losses on Bank Balance Sheets Due To Rate Hikes (54:05) Inverted Yield Curve (54:56) The Debt Ceiling (01:00:41) Is There A Limit To How High The Fed Can Hike? (01:03:36) Potential Risks In The Shadow Banking System (01:13:19) Inflation As A Financial Risk Itself -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Back

Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the worlds leading expert on global liquidity, a key concept in finance that relates to the relative ease of financing in markets around the world. After previously calling in 2022 that a collapse in liquidity would usher in a bad year for risk assets, Howell returns to Forward Guidance with happier tidings. Howell now argues that global liquidity conditions reached a nadir in October 2022 and since then have been rising, in part due to the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) injecting trillions of Yuan into the Chinese financial system, as well as money market funds pulling cash from the Feds reverse repo (RRP) facility. Howell also shares with Forward Guidance listeners his thoughts on why the yield curve is sending a false signal, as well as on private credit creation and cross-border flows. -- Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:40) Liquidity Is Rising - Why? (06:17) But What About Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (09:03) Treasury Market Liquidity & Bank Reserves (18:10) People's Bank of China Is Injecting Lots of Liquidity (25:48) Y2K Fed Comparison (30:50) Market Outlook for 2023 (32:58) Curve Ad (35:12) Liquidity Outlook For Next Few Years (41:38) Inverted Yield Curve Could Be Sending False Signal (50:40) Are Rate Cuts Actually Coming? (59:40) Private Sector Liquidity & Cross-Border Flows (1:06:50) Consequences On Global Economy (1:13:01) Is Liquidity Resurgence Already Priced In? (1:17:48) "Rebound" Phase In Liquidity Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Feb 2023 16:02:00 -0000

Bear Market Not Over, Says Veteran Trader Who Made 163% Return in 2022 | Neal Berger

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagles View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market. After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks around the world tightened liquidity, in response to the record high inflation rates that shocked markets all around the world. In this interview, Neal walks through the market dynamics that allowed him to spot this trend reversal of the previous 10+ years. As central banks began tightening & reducing liquidity, Neal launched the contrarian macro fund in April 2021 and saw an opportunity that many overlooked. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (16:14) The Fed in 2022 (21:52) "The Sell-Off Was Orderly" (24:02) Blockworks Research (25:36) The Summer Rally of July & August 2022 (27:24) Thoughts On Current Rally (32:02) Rates & Stock Relationship (36:11) Permissionless Plug (37:14) The Labor Market Is Strong (40:31) Are Stocks Pricing In A Soft Landing? (44:23) Defining Liquidity (46:42) Which Is Neal Berger More Bearish On - Stocks Or Bonds? (48:43) Is This A Suckers' Rally? (50:53) IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME (51:46) Yield Curve View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 06 Feb 2023 12:00:00 -0000

The Bond Market Is Wrong | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater. Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/ Joseph Wangs latest piece, Come Hell Or High Water: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308. Offer ends February 20, 2023. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief (04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong (07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%" (01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go (15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case (28:06) Curve Ad (29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling? (36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening? (46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water" (01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate (01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%? (01:14:45) Higher For Longer! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 Feb 2023 21:58:00 -0000

Central Bankers vs. The Bond Market | Roger Hirst

Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced to pivot and cut rates. Hirst also shares his view on China, silver, and the labor market. Lykeion Research https://www.thelykeion.com/research/ For more information about Real Vision Creative Studios, email customvideos@realvision.com This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today. ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:31) Disconnect Between Central Banks And Markets (11:29) The Labor Market Is Tight But Not Strong" (14:36) Fighting Against The "Doomsday Scenario" (20:57) Base Case For 2023 (24:09) Is Refinancing Risk Delayed? (29:40) Soft Landing Won't Happen But Plane Will Be Circling The Airport For Long Time (33:43) Public Ad (35:49) Controlled Explosions In China" (41:52) The Merging of Geopolitics and Macro (46:48) The Debt Supercycle (49:53) Actionable Trade Ideas: Copper, Silver, and Calls (56:23) Bonds and Oil (01:04:51) Private Equity (01:09:26) Recession Type and Length (01:15:59) The Power Of Changing Your Mind
Wed, 01 Feb 2023 22:39:00 -0000

Jim Bianco on Fed Chair Powell's Reluctance To Discipline The Bulls (February 2023 FOMC)

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation. -- Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Research, news, data, governance and models now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 31 Jan 2023 20:08:22 -0000

What This Fed Watcher Is On The Lookout For | Colby Smith (February 2023 FOMC)

With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Feds policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal Reserves own forecasts will be one of the most salient issues at tomorrows press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Smith and Farley also discuss the latest economic data, the politics of the Fed, and the looming issue of the U.S. debt ceiling. Follow Colby Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/colbyLsmith Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Timestamps: (00:41) Expectations For The Fed's February FOMC Meeting (09:24) Are Financial Conditions Too Loose? (18:26) "The Fed's Threshold For Pain Is A Lot Higher" (25:48) Forward Guidance (30:55) Curve Ad (32:00) Employment Costs & Other Economic Data (37:09) Will The Fed Hike Again In May (After It Likely Hikes Again in March)? (40:12) New Voting Members on The FOMC (43:26) Will Powell Be In "Attack Mode" Tomorrow? (47:49) The Fed's Balance Sheet & Quantitative Tightening (QT) (51:14) The Debt Ceiling (53:34) The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility
Tue, 31 Jan 2023 14:48:58 -0000

Earnings Season Is Strong (So Far) | Sam Burns

Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023. Follow Mill Street Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MillStResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Outlook for 2023 (06:00) Cyclical Stocks Are Outperforming Defensive Stocks (11:37) Stocks vs. Bonds Valuations (17:17) Earnings Growth Outlook for S&P 500 Stocks (20:46) Incentives of Sell-Side Analysts (28:35) Earnings Revisions By Sector (31:30) Permissionless Plug (32:33)China, Gold Miners, and Airlines (37:06) European Stocks (43:35) What Is Sam Most Bearish On? (45:53) The Fed (55:40) Inverted Yield Curve
Thu, 26 Jan 2023 14:52:44 -0000

The Bear Market Ended Months Ago, Says Master of Turning Points | Milton Berg

Milton Berg is a quiet legend of technical analysis whose work is regularly used by the worlds most accomplished investors. He joins Jack Farley to share his reading of specific patterns in the market that to him are strong bullish indicators. Berg argues that the recession already occurred in 2022 and that the best time to buy stocks is coming out a recession. Berg shares with Farley in-depth analysis of the breadth and volume characteristics of recent price action that make him think that the bear market is over. Berg is particularly constructive on China and gold miners, and in addition he and Farley debate the meaning of the steep yield curve inversion. Milton Berg Advisors is a boutique consulting and research firm that offers investment advisory services exclusively to institutional investors. More info can be found at https://miltonberg.com/. Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Milton Berg's Way Of Analyzing Markets (09:31) A Transition From Inflation To Recession Is Bullish For Stocks (12:13) Comparison To Dot-Com Crash (17:24) "The Market Bottomed In June" (21:12) Bullish On Chinese & U.S. Stocks (29:37) Permissionless Plug (30:39) But What About Bear Market Rallies? (42:58) "I Have Zero Sell Signals" (45:08) But What About The Inverted Yield Curve? (47:44) The Unemployment Rate (56:53) China Stocks and Gold (01:04:44) Milton Berg's Outlook on Treasury Bonds __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 23 Jan 2023 15:23:00 -0000

Dusting Off The Recession Playbook | Tian Yang

The last time Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception, appeared on Forward Guidance in August 2022, he gave viewers a well-timed warning that the commodity supercycle was on hold. Now, he returns to argues that the world is well on its way to a global recession that will provide a hostile environment for risk assets. Yang shares his equity bottom checklist with Jack Farley to argue that equities have much more down to fall, and he explains why he thinks risk-off assets like bonds will perform well. Yang expects a blow-out of credit spreads and he thinks that the U.S. dollar will perform less well against other currencies than it does in a typical recession. Filmed on January 12th, 2023. Follow Variant Perception on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:36) Base Case For 2023 (04:14) Where's The Recession? (08:11) Liquidity (18:25) Housing and Manufacturing Are Weak (24:21) Interest Rates (28:05) Cruve Ad (29:08) China (33:36) Underweight Equities (Asset Allocation Part 1) (43:03) The Checklist For A Market Bottom (47:19) Incredibly Rare Set-up in Gold" (48:43) Overweight Bonds (Asset Allocation Part 2) (55:19) Neutral On Commodities (Asset Allocation Part 3) (01:02:26) The U.S. Dollar (01:05:13) The Most Crowded Trade In Macro Right Now (01:11:22) The VIX in 2023
Thu, 19 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Transitory Goldilocks Is Here | Darius Dale

Darius Dale of 42 Macro once again joins Jack to share his macro view for 2023. Dale argues that, while inflation and growth are falling, inflation is falling so much faster than growth is falling, and economic resilience is rearing its head in many areas. As a result, it may appear that the so-called soft landing could be achieved this year. At least thats what many asset markets that Dale tracks closely are indicating. This environment is conducive to risk assets rallying and volatility abating - at least in the short-term. However, Dale shares his own view that this current period of economic moderation is likely only a transitory goldilocks that will give way to a recession that begins in the fourth quarter of 2023. Dale also shares his outlook on China, bonds, and Bitcoin. Filmed on January 12, 2023. -- Follow 42 Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAlerts Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAware Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Have The Odds Of A "Soft Landing" Increased? (06:59) Transitory Goldilocks" (13:53) The Fed Is Focused More On Wage Growth & Labor Market Now Than Inflation (20:20) Odds Of The Fed Cutting Rates (27:17) Permissionless Ad (28:17) But Isn't Growth Falling Rapidly? (40:13) Is Inflation Eating Away At Wealth? (44:59) Is Liquidity Turning Up? (53:53) Asset Allocation (01:02:27) "Tons of Upside In China" -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 18 Jan 2023 19:00:00 -0000

Bank of Japan Widow-Makes Once Again | Weston Nakamura

The last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy. At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing nothing. Despite the unprecedented scale of record-setting JGB buying (or, foreign and domestic investor selling pressure), the Bank of Japan delivered a unanimous vote of no change in Yield Curve Control policy for Governor Kuroda's second to last meeting of his historic, and dramatically controversial tenure of radical policy experimentation. Ahead of today's policy release, Weston had been discussing his outlook for a "no-change" BOJ policy outcome, and had positioned for the event against market consensus, using the same framework that he and Jack had discussed at the end of December of market functioning and financial stability to determine policy outcome (as opposed to inflation-combating). In addition to the Bank of Japan and the most intense market pressure they are currently under, Weston also explains what is behind the remarkable strength in the yen as of late, how it is possible for JGBs to yield above the so-called Yield Curve Control upper ceiling, and what's next for the "least predictable" major central bank, as we head into the critical end of Governor Kuroda's era. See Weston and Jack from the previous December 2022 BOJ Day: Bank of Japans Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston NakamuraDec 21, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYR34YbXMvY&t=157s Listen to Weston Nakamura and Emma Muhleman, CFA discuss the Bank of Japan in full detail on Twitter Spaces during live Japan trading hours ahead of the BOJ decision here: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BdGYyNpYAyGX?s=20 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Weston on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __
Mon, 16 Jan 2023 23:38:31 -0000

The Soft Landing Blue Pill Is Overpriced | Andy Constan

Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two blue pill scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Constan says he is positioned to fade these two scenarios by being short everything - namely, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Constan explains why he is betting on red pill scenarios of either a severe recession or higher-er for longer-er interest rates. Filmed on January 11, 2022. __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:47) "I'm Short Everything" (08:24) Blue Pill Scenarios (Soft Landing Or Fed Pivot) Are Less Likely Than Market Is Pricing In (15:19) Betting Against Rate Cuts (23:06) Curve ad (24:08) Are Stocks Expensive Relative to Bonds? (30:51) Equity Risk Premium (ERP) (40:36) In China, Cash Is Trash (49:08) Views on Commodities (54:28) Can the Superb Macro Returns of 2022 Be Repeated? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 13 Jan 2023 22:24:47 -0000

The Big Bank Deep Dive | Alex Gray

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 As big banks start to report their earnings, Jack turns to banking specialist Alex Gray for insight. Gray taps her prior experience both as a commercial banking underwriter and as a senior analyst of large cap banking stocks to glean insights from the fourth quarter reports of JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM)., Bank of America ($BAC), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Gray navigates the delicate balance between loan growth and credit quality, evaluates the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserves rapid rate hikes on the profitability and balance sheets of the nations largest money centers. As disclosed in the interview, Alex Gray currently serves as the director of finance for Blockworks. Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) How To Value Bank Stocks (03:10) Bank Profitability When Interest Rates Are At Zero (10:07) How To Measure Credit Losses (14:09) Commercial Lending Is In A New Bull Market (21:17) The Importance of Collateral (26:20) Permissionless Ad (33:55) Current Default Rates Are Low (But Rising) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 12 Jan 2023 18:18:00 -0000

Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? | Jeff Snider & Bob Elliott

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- With U.S. monthly inflation coming in negative, whats in store for the future economy and interest rate path? Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, and Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, discuss. -- Follow Jeff Snider on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Unlimited Funds on Twitter https://twitter.com/UnlimitedFnds Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) December CPI Report (08:45) Is There Monetary Inflation? (11:45) The Labor Market Remains Strong (Or Does It?) (32:37) Personal Income (34:43) Permissionless Plug (35:43) Biblical Levels of Yield Curve Inversion (54:25) Consumer Spending & Bank Lending -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 10 Jan 2023 20:55:00 -0000

Jacob Shapiro on Russia, Ukraine, and China

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments and geopolitics editor at Lykeion, joins Jack to share his geopolitical outlook for 2023. Jacob tells Jack why he thinks that Russias war again Ukraine will sadly continue for some time, and he explains how the war is impacting global supply chains, commodity prices, and international relations. Jacob also shares with Jack his take on Chinas economy, which is at a crossroads between a slow-motion train wreck of its collapsing real estate sector, and the reflationary tailwinds from the end of its zero-Covid policy. Filmed on January 10, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:43) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (06:07) Economic Consequences of The War (13:35) China and India Are Buying Russian Oil In Bulk (15:42) European Price Cap On Russian Oil (19:47) Who Are Russia's Allies? (22:52) How Might This War End? (31:33) Permissionless Plug (32:33) China (35:34) Will Liquidity Be Restored In China? (49:00) Taiwan & Semiconductors -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 09 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

The Era of American Stock Dominance Is Over | Kevin Muir

In December 2021, Kevin Muir, veteran trader and author of The Macro Tourist, came on Forward Guidance and made a series of bold predictions all of which came true. Now, with a red carpet rolled out for him, Kevin returns to Forward Guidance to share his predictions for 2023. Kevin argues that U.S. stocks will underperform foreign equities, that 2023 will be far more boring than investors expect, and that deep trouble is brewing in private markets (venture capital, private equity, and private debt). Kevin also contends that the economy might fare better than many anticipate, and that bank stocks will do well. Filmed the afternoon of January 6th, 2023. -- Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muirs newsletter, The Macro Tourist, can be found here: https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Kevins interview on Forward Guidance in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJkEokqqaKM&t=400s -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) The Fed (05:43) When Will Recession Come (If At All)? (13:32) 2023 Will Be More Boring Than People Expect (18:09) The Bond Market Pain Might Continue (25:01) Where Is The Terminal Rate? (29:25) Curve Ad (30:26) The Era of U.S. Equity Outperformance Is Over (47:42) There Will Be Trouble In Private Markets (01:00:54) The Tide Is Out, Who Will Be Left Swimming Naked? (01:08:06) The Banks Will Do Fine (01:13:57) Outlook on Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 06 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Cryptos 2023 Health Check | Vance Spencer

Vance Spencer, co-founder of Framework Ventures, a venture firm that invests exclusively in digital assets, joins Jack to look back on cryptos rough 2022 and look forward to what is on the horizon. Spencer shares his framework for valuing digital assets, explains why he thinks the vast majority of crypto projects are unsuitable for this valuation methods, and offers his reasoning for why he is very bullish on Ethereum above all else. Filmed on December 21, 2022. -- Follow Vance Spencer on Twitter https://twitter.com/pythianism Follow Framework Ventures on Twitter https://twitter.com/hiframework Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:36) The Seeds of A Bear Market (10:10) Why Vance Is Skeptical On Solana (12:57) Crypto Health Check in 2023 (16:17) How Does Macro Impact Crypto? (24:53) Permissionless Ad (25:53) Big Tech (27:38) Genesis And The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (32:10) Crypto "Yield" And Its Many Problems (35:59) Bitcoin (41:08) Valuation of Eth (45:24) Contagion Risks Within Crypto (48:25) Tether (50:48) Investment Strategies In A Bear Market (52:33) Crypto Gaming & The Metaverse (59:57) Who Had Accounts At FTX? (01:01:48) Why have prices been rangebound over the past month? (01:03:11) Non-Ethereum Projects That Vance Likes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

Nightmare Scenario For The Fed | Felix Jauvin

Felix Jauvin, macro analyst at Reflexivity Research, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on liquidity, the Fed, and inflation. Jauvin argues that the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is removing from the financial system via quantitative tightening (QT) is being sterilized by the draining of the Feds reverse repo facility (RRP) - in other words, the Federal Reserve is removing money with one hand and adding money back with another. Jauvin shares his outlook on assets such as bonds, stocks, commodities, the dollar, and crypto. Filmed on December 20, 2022. -- Follow Felix Jauvin on Twitter https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Liquidity In 2023 (15:30) Reverse Repo & Treasury General Account (TGA) (20:59) What's Going To Break? (30:05) A "Nightmare Scenario" For Powell And The Fed (34:16)Pivot And Yield Curve Control (37:07) Views On Inflation (43:57) Commodities Outlook (48:57) Equities (56:03) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 02 Jan 2023 12:00:00 -0000

A Masterclass In Central Banking | Professor Jane Knodell

Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and author of "The Second Bank of the United States: Central banker in an era of nation-building" joins the show for a masterclass in financial history. Taking us back to the founding of the First & Second Bank of the United States, Knodell discusses the origins of banking, central banking and everything in between, taking us on a tour from the late 1700's to present day. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) The First Bank In The United States (04:29) The Coinage Act Of 1790 (08:37) The Financing Of The Revolutionary War (14:40) How Successful Was The First Bank? (17:14) The Second Bank of the United States: Central Banker in an Era of Nation-Building (24:50) The Mechanics of "Discounts, Exchange & Treasury Debt" (29:05) The Panic Of 1819 (33:02) The Panic of 1825 & The Role Of "Central" Banking (40:12) Did The Second Bank of the United States Closing In 1836 Have Any Effect On The Panic Of 1837? (46:29) The Panic Of 1907: The J.P. Morgan Bailouts (53:55) The Financial System's Plumbing (57:54) The Financing of WWI (01:02:34) The Great Depression (01:07:47) Can The Federal Reserve Print Money? (01:11:13) Bretton Woods (01:15:35) The Treasury-Fed Accord (01:19:15) The FTX Fallout -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 29 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

All You Ever Wanted To Know About Interest Rates | DC Analyst

Interest rates are a key measure of the price of money, but as the plural suggests, there is one more than just one interest rate. Today Jack dives deep into the interest rate structure with whiz kid Kemen Linsuain, known commonly as DC Analyst, who knows a thing or two about the many different kinds of risk-free rates that punctuate the financial system. Kemen tells of the Federal Funds rate, which is the nominal overnight rate that the Federal Reserve controls, to other rates within the Feds remit such as the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the reverse repo rate (RRP). Kemen and Jack then discuss overnight interest rates not within the Feds control such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), and then other rates and derivatives such as Treasury bill futures and swap rates. Note: the vast majority of rates discussed in this conversation are short-term rates with minimal amounts of credit risk, and should not be confused with corporate bond yield, mortgage rates, or commercial banking rates. Lastly, Kemen shares his thoughts on crypto, and tells Jack about his latest venture into crypto as a content creator at Gauntlet. -- About Gauntlet: https://gauntlet.network/ DC Analyst blog: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/ Latest chartback from DC Analyst: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-17 Follow Kemen on Twitter https://twitter.com/AnalystDC Follow Gauntlet on Twitter https://twitter.com/gauntletnetwork Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Interest Rate Mayhem in 2022 (14:19) Repo Markets (21:08) Curve Ad (22:14) Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) (37:03) Interest Rate Derivatives Market (41:39) LIBOR to SOFR Transition (50:14) Spread Between EFFR & SOFR (Effective Fed Funds Rate & Secured Overnight Financing Rate) (55:26) Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) and Forward Rate Agreements (FRA) (56:50) Negative Swap Spreads (59:48) Term Premium (01:02:12) Thoughts On The Fed (01:06:53) Crypto & DeFi (01:13:34) Where Did The (Crypto) Yield Come From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 26 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Fed Will Tighten "As Far As They Can" Into 2023 | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves

Today Jack welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that transitory will die and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high. Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets. -- Follow George Goncalves on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (09:33) The Tightening of Financial Conditions (13:37 Forecasting The Fed Terminal Rate Into 2023 (20:33) Curve Ad (21:36) A Classic Boom/Bust Cycle? (29:12) Lagarde Is Undoubtedly Hawkish (31:26) Should We Listen To The Fed's Forward Guidance? (36:58) The Cycle of Financial Conditions (47:19) Stocks, Bonds & The Wealth Effect (49:54) 2023 Outlook For Risk Asset's (56:37) Analysing The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening (01:03:12) George & Joseph's Final Thoughts & Outlook For 2023 (01:12:00) The Outlook For Bonds Throughout 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 22 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Private Markets To Implode As Fed Hikes to 7% | Bilal Hafeez

Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins todays interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code JACK. Offer ends on January 6th, 2022. Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hives analysis, check out Bilals piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/ -- Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) Macro Outlook For 2023 (05:32) Severe Recession Incoming (10:20) Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023 (22:55) Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain (25:38) Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace (31:16) China (38:15) Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess? (42:08) Bond Market Outlook (49:39) Energy (54:21) Is Europe In A Recession? (55:51) How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates? (57:35) Discount To Macro Hive Prime (01:00:24) The U.S. Dollar (01:09:59) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 20 Dec 2022 23:26:09 -0000

Bank of Japans Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston Nakamura

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and theres no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado. Weston tells Jack that the BOJs decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year. Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022. Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Mon, 19 Dec 2022 13:15:00 -0000

The Technicals Are Bearish | Katie Stockton

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies and portfolio manager of the $TACK ETF, joins Jack Farley to share her analysis of the charts of stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the first technical analysis interview on Forward Guidance, Stockton explains and incorporates indicators such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Ichimoku clouds, moving averages, and stochastic oscillators. She tells Jack that in the short-run, the technicals remain bearish for the S&P 500, and she also offers her reading on oil, gold, and the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on Friday, December 16, 2022. -- Follow Katie Stockton on Twitter https://twitter.com/StocktonKatie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:23) Key Concepts In Technical Analysis (TA) (05:30) Support And Resistance (11:06) Combining Different Indicators To Draw Conclusions (24:02) Curve Ad (25:08) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explainer (33:02) Outlook on S&P 500 (35:36) Outlook on Oil (44:48) Gold (46:47) Treasury Yields (50:24) Sector Analysis (54:18) Common Mistakes In Technical Analysis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 16 Dec 2022 22:30:00 -0000

Chinas Economic House Of Cards | Kyle Bass & Nick Glinsman

Todays interview is something unlike any other thats ever appeared on Forward Guidance. It concerns China, a country that once was the engine of global economic growth, but now is in the middle of its worst recession in over 20 years. Can Chinas economy emerge stronger than ever? Lets just say that todays guests, Kyle Bass and Nick Glinsman, are not optimistic. Kyle Bass is the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital and Nick Glinsman is the founder of Malmgren Glinsman & Partners. An important disclaimer: a guest today makes serious allegations that are solely his own opinion. Blockworks does not necessarily agree with these claims, some of which are unverified or unverifiable, and in no way endorses them. As always, nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Follow Kyle Bass on Twitter https://twitter.com/Jkylebass Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Kyle Bass 2023 Macro Outlook (04:20) Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices? (13:10) China's Economy (23:00) The Chinese Communist Party (28:46) Why Won't Beijing Reflate? (43:57) Russia and Putin (48:42) Uranium and the Fed (52:19) Outlook on Bonds in 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Dec 2022 22:20:00 -0000

Everything You Need To Know About The Feds Meeting | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, joins Jack to share her views on the upcoming extremely busy week, which sees the release of Novembers inflation (CPI) data on Tuesday and the culmination of the Feds FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, December 12. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:04) Preparing For This Week's Fed Meeting (04:37) The Dot Plot (13:50) What Are The Odds Of A Hidden Pivot? (17:42) The Job Market (24:54) How Hot Will Inflation Be? (30:21) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (40:46) The Housing And Auto Market Is Getting Even Worse (45:40) Recession (48:08) Consumer Spending Is Falling (51:33) Can Services Save Us?
Fri, 09 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Felix Zulauf: Credit Meltdown Will Force The Federal Reserve To Backtrack On Tight Money Policy

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share his market outlook for 2023 and beyond. Zulauf argues that recessions in China and Europe will weaken corporate earnings, and that as the U.S. economy also slows down, pessimistic earnings guidance from companies will quickly catalyze severe stock market declines. However, he thinks that the bear market will likely end in early 2023, because a credit event (likely in China) will force central banks - most notably the Federal Reserve - to stop tightening monetary policy, and that this pivot will arrest the fall in equity prices. Zulauf tells Jack Farley that Chinas growing trade dominance is augering profound geopolitical and economic changes, and he shares his view on sovereign bond yields, cryptocurrencies, and commodity prices. Filmed on December 7, 2022 Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. For more information, go to https://www.felixzulauf.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Profound Geopolitical Change (05:51) Stock Market Outlook (9:31) Potential Credit Meltdown In China (18:06) Curve Sponsor Reading (19:11) China's Stock Market Does Not Represent The Chinese Economy (22:09) Why Is The Euro So Weak? (24:09) The U.S. Dollar (26:57) Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Treasury Bonds (35:27) The Federal Reserve Will Pivot In Early 2023 (39:22) The Final Phase Of The Equity Bear Market (45:12) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 08 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

David Rubenstein, Billionaire Investor Who Hired Jay Powell, On What Makes A Great Investor

Today Jack speaks to a true titan in the investment business. David Rubenstein is the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm with over $360 Billion in assets under management, and he joins Forward Guidance to share lessons from his latest book, How To Invest: Masters On The Craft, in which he spoke to legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and Jim Simons about the keys to their success. Link to David Rubensteins book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Invest-David-M-Rubenstein/dp/1982190302 Link to David Rubensteins interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nwf_VySYFU&t=601s Link to David Rubensteins interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLE3eRMFUJo&t=17s -- Follow David Rubenstein on Twitter https://twitter.com/DM_Rubenstein Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) What Makes A Great Investor? (04:16) David Rubenstein's Journey Into Private Equity (09:06) Importance Of Getting Involved In On The Ground Floor (11:42) Fundraising (19:22) Inflation (21:05) The Business Cycle (24:22) Venture Capital and Technology Valuations (27:36) Economic Outlook (29:22) How High Will The Federal Reserve Hike Interest Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 05 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Cash Is King In Multi-Year Recessionary Bear Market | Chance Finucane

Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack to discuss his investment outlook at this current point in the business cycle. Finucane argues that the U.S. is at the beginning of a multi-year economic slowdown that will see corporate earnings dwindle materially across many sectors, and that accordingly preservation of capital is top priority. Finucane and Farley discuss the housing and auto market, outlook on fixed-income and the Federal Reserve, as well as individual stock ideas. Filmed on November 21, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Outlooks on Growth and Inflation (02:39) The Housing Market Recession (05:33) The Auto Market (08:05) General Investment Outlook (10:49) MegaCap Tech Stocks (13:19) Banks and Other Financial Stocks (14:15) Fixed-Income Outlook (16:49) Is Sentiment Too Bearish? (19:34) How Much Will Corporate Earnings Grow In 2023 (if at all)? (22:19) Curve Ad (23:21) How High Will The Fed Hike Interest Rates? (27:09) Municipal and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (28:34) Even More Bearish Than Summer 2022 (33:16) Long-Duration Treasurys (34:41) Sectors and Individual Stocks (36:31) Will Companies Be Able to Pass Costs Onto Consumers In 2023? (42:56) Energy (44:32) About Oxbow -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Car Market Is Crashing | Paul Hodges

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Having shared his dire warnings about the chemicals market, Paul Hodges, and author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share equally grim tidings about the global automotive industry, which Hodges argues is entering a severe recession. Hodges notes that sales volumes and car prices are falling sharply around the world, and he discusses cyclical as well as secular themes in Asian, European, and American automobile markets. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) The Health Of The Global Car Market (05:08) The U.S. Auto Market (13:49) Car Values Are Falling - What's Next? (24:32) Slowdown in Chinese Auto Market (30:30) Tesla (33:43) Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - When WIll They Become Mainstream? (45:23) Europe's Auto Market (51:23) Investing In Electric and Autonomous Vehicles (01:06:51) China's Relationships with Non-Chinese Automakers (01:10:33) The pH Report As a Research Partner of Forward Guidance (01:14:05) The Chemicals Market Remains Stupendously Bearish -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 29 Nov 2022 21:11:26 -0000

FTX and The Money Noose: Scott Skyrm On The Fall of MF Global

Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global. Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of risk-free trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by yes men, and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global). Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much worse than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jacks reading that FTX likely misused (or at least mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (repo) markets in 2022, as well as the Feds dilemma between price stability and financial stability. Follow Scott on Twitter https://twitter.com/ScottSkyrm Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global? (02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008 (11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds? (20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX (23:29) Cross-Margining (32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades (40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades (43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM (47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate (53:59) The Fed's Dilemma (58:51) The Repo Market in 2022 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 28 Nov 2022 20:30:00 -0000

CeFi Crypto Contagion Is Just Getting Started, Says Analyst Who Predicted FTX's Fall

James Block, author at Dirty Bubble Media, joins Jack to explain the knock-on effects of the demise of the crypto exchange FTX. James is an amateur crypto researcher who saw in FTX and Alameda Research what many crypto professionals missed: hidden leverage, inflated assets, and in some cases, outright fraud. He now shares his view on potential contagion to Gemini, Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), BlockFi, and other firms in the crypto ecosystem. James writings at Dirty Bubble Media can be found here: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/ James piece on Alameda Research: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent James piece on Digital Currency Group (DCG): https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/digital-currency-grift __ Follow James on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburg Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:45)"Is Alameda Research Insolvent?" (03:02) Red Flags With Alameda & Celsius (12:35) Binance (15:01) Crypto Contagion (19:13) Curve Ad (20:16) Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Genesis (35:16) Where Did Crypto Yield Come From? (40:00) Was The $8 Billion Ever At FTX To Begin With? (45:11) What's The Next Shoe To Drop? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 24 Nov 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Liquidity In Crypto Is Declining | Scott Freeman

Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Frieds (SBF) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Scott Freeman's Background (04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015 (09:06) Crypto in 2020 (12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022 (15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto (19:23) Where Does Yield Come From? (20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising? (22:07) Algorand Ad (23:52) Alameda & FTX (29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried (34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges (39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es) (40:13) General Market Outlook (42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) (49:07)Is There A Silver Lining? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 21 Nov 2022 14:30:00 -0000

Learning From Market Tremors | Hari Krishnan

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline. Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Hari Krishnans book, Market Tremors: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time , create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, youll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:24) Dominant Agents" In Finance (04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful? (13:26) The Shadow Banking System (17:28)The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks (19:12) Curve Ad (25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative? (27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX (38:56) Leverage Within Crypto (42:45)Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners (44:36) Volatility In 2022 (58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market (01:04:27) The Role Of Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 17 Nov 2022 14:30:00 -0000

Joseph Wang & William White: Mammoth Interest Rate Hikes Are Causing Trouble In Sovereign Debt

Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve. They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the debt trap, and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability. William Whites work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/ Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Academic papers referenced: "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8 "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling: https://rb.gy/robwk2 -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Looking Back At 2022 (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error" (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models? (25:25) Algorand Ad (27:09)If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do? (40:43) The Debt Trap (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake? (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 14 Nov 2022 13:45:00 -0000

Forced Retirement Selling May Disrupt Santa Rally | Zed Francis

Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/ Convexitas piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/ Convexitas piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Financialization Of Everything (10:27) Private Markets (17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained (19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense (26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail (38:41) Stocks and Volatility (41:53) "Ignore The VIX" (45:19) Tail Risk (50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks? (01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market (01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen (01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts (01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays (01:26:00) Basis Risk __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 10 Nov 2022 19:16:00 -0000

Commodity Prices Are Due For A Severe Correction, Says Mike McGlone

Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists. McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so. NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTXs distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX. Follow Mike McGlone on Twitter https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:15) We're Going Down" (05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto (07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil (11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked? (22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand? (26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic? (29:42) Forward Curve In Oil (38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession (47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil? (50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation (55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 09 Nov 2022 22:42:11 -0000

Theres Just Not Enough Energy | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins

Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g -- Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com or jack@blockworks.co -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Tue, 08 Nov 2022 23:00:00 -0000

Everything You Need To Know About Crypto's FTX-Driven Downturn | Matt Fiebach

In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges. Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day, and FTXs rumored acquisition by Binance, a digital asset behemoth led by Chengpeng Zhao (CZ) that, should the acquisition close, would become the undisputed king of all crypto exchange. Matt and Farley consider financial contagion risk within crypto as well as in the broader traditional finance (tradfi) world. __ Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Matt Fiebach on Twitter https://twitter.com/MattFiebach Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:54)Overview of FTX's Problems (02:49) Alameda Research's Balance Sheet (09:09) FTX As A Big Blue-Chip Player In Crypto (13:16) Possible Outcomes (16:31) Was FTX Investing Customer Assets? (20:25) Risk Of Contagion (27:48) Matt Fiebach's Background (30:42) About Blockworks Research (31:49) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 07 Nov 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Economy Is Slowing Much Faster Than The Fed Thinks | Peter Tchir

In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserves models indicate. Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewing geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. will likely continue to weigh upon financial markets, and he shares his insights on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe. -- Follow Peter Tchir on Twitter https://twitter.com/TFMkts Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) "I Would Disagree With Powell" On The U.S. Economy (06:03) "Credit Bubbles Only Happen With Safe Assets" (08:17) Layoffs In Big Tech (12:17) This Will Be A Deep And Lasting Recession (14:31) The Semiconductor Industry (20:34) China (33:52) Energy (36:56)) Regulation of Fossil Fuels (40:41) When Will The Drawdown of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Stop? (44:27) Will Europe's Energy Problems Cause A Recession? (48:26) The Strong Dollar Is Destabalizing The Global Financial System (59:30) The Increasing Political Pressure On The Federal Reserve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 04 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Chemicals Market Is Bearish Stupendously Bearish | Paul Hodges

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand will slow rapidly around the globe. After reviewing how and why the chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy, Hodges tells Jack Farley how the collapse in chemical prices is a harbinger for a severe global recession. Unrelenting high energy prices, which are a key input to chemical production, are making the chemical refining business even more challenging. Hodges and Farley also discuss the future of inflation and how it is affected by central banks, geopolitics, and demographics. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:51) Chemicals Market Is Indicating The Recession Will Be Deep (14:03) The Mood Is Grim" In The Chemicals Business (19:21) Demographics Are Not Helping! (23:25) The Yield Curve Is Not The Be-All End-All (32:35) Chemical Prices Are Collapsing (40:04) Has Inflation Peaked? (44:44) In A Recession, Earnings Go Down (46:19) The Fed Put Is No More (52:51) A Food Crisis Is Brewing (55:46) Oil and Natural Gas (01:03:31) How Will Europe Handle This Winter? (01:11:17) There Is Considerable Downside Risk" (01:14:42) Discount To pH Report, Paul Hodges' Research Service -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 03 Nov 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Jim Bianco & Joseph Wang on November Fed Meeting: Much Higher For Much Longer!

Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powells press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:42) General Thoughts on The November FOMC Meeting (04:48) New Sentence On Monetary Policy Acting With A Leg (12:57) Strong Labor Market (19:44) Why Should The Fed Not Hike By 75 Basis Points in December? (23:29) Powell's Yield Curve Is About To Invert (31:05)Is A Soft Landing Still Possible? (43:38) A Treasury Buyback Program Is NOT Coming to Rescue The Bond Market (At Least In 2022) (51:42) A Financial Accident Is Getting More And More Likely __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 01 Nov 2022 20:41:53 -0000

Joseph Wang & Nick Timiraos: What You Need To Know For The November Fed Meeting

With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Feds job even harder. Timiraos Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd. ______ Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ______ Joseph Wangs book, Central Banking 101: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747 Nick Timiraos book, Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic And Prevented Economic Disaster: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/ Nick Timiraos article: Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates Coming Path: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181 Nick Timiraos article: Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614 Josephs Wang piece, The Money Still Flows: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/ Joseph Wangs piece on Treasury Buybacks (Quantitative Buybacks): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/ ______ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ ______ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting (11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong (19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet (28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak" (31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback (31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target? (46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates? (49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell (56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet? Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ______
Mon, 31 Oct 2022 16:53:23 -0000

Inflation Will Run Hot For The Rest Of The Decade, Says Vincent Deluard

Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration. Deluard proposes a holy Trinity portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary (17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory (27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression (39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly (46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks? (51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep? (57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF) (01:02:51) Energy (01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market (01:14:44) Brazil and Gold (01:16:40) Favorite Books Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ___
Fri, 28 Oct 2022 17:23:00 -0000

IMPORTANT: Announcing Blockworks Latest Podcast, 0xResearch

Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed pivot might impact asset prices. Filmed on October 26, 2022. Follow Sam Martin on Twitter https://twitter.com/swmartin19 Follow Dan Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/smyyguy Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Sign up for the Research daily newsletter here: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily-debrief-by-blockworks-research/ -- Timestamps; (00:00) Intro (00:25) Macro and Crypto (03:10) Navigating A Crypto Bear Market (10:48) Ethereum Supply Curve (28:18) About The 0xResearch Podcast (30:14) Zero Knowledge Roll-ups (36:37) Ethereum & Cosmos (44:55) Bitcoin (52:30) Jack Answers Macro Questions
Fri, 28 Oct 2022 16:30:00 -0000

The European Central Bank Goes On The Offensive | Daniel Neilson (LIVE)

Daniel Neilson, economist and author of Minksy and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Banks efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade. Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks. Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollar Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj _ Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. _ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 27 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Lyn Alden: The Bursting Of The Sovereign Bond Bubble

In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures. 1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing pressures for central banks to reliquify their beleaguered bond markets. Filmed on October 20th, 2022. Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (19:54) What Will Cause The Fed To Pivot? (26:21) The Treasury Market Is Not In Full Panic Mode Yet (33:45) Recession Risk (35:24) Asset Allocation (38:26) The Dollar and Emerging Markets (45:45) Energy (53:49) When Will The Dollar Stop Rising? (01:01:54) The Long-Term Debt Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 24 Oct 2022 18:06:00 -0000

The Fed Wont Rescue The Housing Market | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a biblical quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booths description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernankes Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) The Housing Recession (09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck (19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic? (23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex (24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking (26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue (31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022" (43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market? (48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing (51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature" (53:57)Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move? (58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S. -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 20 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Fed Blundered In 2008 And Its Blundering Now | Richard Field

Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Feds current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake. -- Follow Richard Field on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tyillc Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/igyzsj___ -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30.Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off:https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Algorand Promotion (00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize (04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake? (14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (28:02) Algorand Promotion (29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake? (37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field (52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation" (54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It? (57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market? (01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent? (01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008" (01:37:34) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 18 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Oil Will Dethrone The Fed (Heres Why) | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins

Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kuppy Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Feds job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment. Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first years subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. -- Follow Harris Kuppy Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) KEDM promotion (00:51) Intro (01:07) Overall Macro Thesis (11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (16:06) The Bull Case For Oil (22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting (30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong" (35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment (40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil (55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season (1:02:41) A Market Crash (1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM) (1:11:19) KEDM promotion (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 17 Oct 2022 16:00:00 -0000

Banks Are Finally Making Money Again | Chris Whalen

Its banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking(taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans. That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalens unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, youll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14. -- Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://rb.gy/enkm0e Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Bittrex Ad (00:10) Intro (00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks (03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over" (07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend) (09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning (12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be? (16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business (21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (23:18) Bittrex Ad (23:49) Winter For Investment Banking (27:48) The Biggest Risks (30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat (35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses? (47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America (55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession? (58:09) FinTech (59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS) (01:01:51) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 13 Oct 2022 13:00:00 -0000

George Noble: A 20-50% Market Crash Is Coming

Filmed on October 11, 2022. When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented return free risk and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact that he would be shocked if the S&P 500 werent under 3000 within 3 months (as of time of recording on October 11, 2022, the S&P 500 stood at 3850). __ George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) intro (03:30) U.K. Gilt Crisis (16:20) The Labor Market (20:16) Energy and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:52) The Bull Market In Narratives Is Over (27:20) Just How Bearish Are You, George?' (30:51) The Bull Case (34:07) The Bond Market Is Wrong (39:02) Will A Recession Cause The Fed To Come To The Rescue? (47:03) Cash Is King (50:33) Bad News Is Bad News (58:51)When Will The Market Bottom? (01:09:28) Frogs In The Pot -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 10 Oct 2022 14:00:00 -0000

The Bond Market Is Already Broken - Stocks and Housing Are Next | Harley Bassman & Joseph Wang

Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jacks view, have predicted and understood this years sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve. Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration. Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022. -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at:http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/q0eztp Follow Harley Bassman on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/8a1rs4 Follow Simplify on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/pavfzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wangs writings can be found athttps://rb.gy/oocxuzand Bassmans latest commentary as The Convexity Maven can be found here:https://rb.gy/xbibuj. -- Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit:https://rb.gy/uxefzo Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (01:00) Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over? (11:57) Risks in The Stock Market (13:53) When Will Powell Pivot? (18:45) The Housing Market Is Already Broken (20:37) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:08) Bittrex Ad (28:42) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:45) How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off (34:39) Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds (40:31) The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market (48:12) If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do? (52:33) Questions From The Audience (55:29) Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves (59:05) Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market (1:02:38) Will Commercial Banks Lose Money? (1:04:21) Reverse Repo Facility (1:05:07) Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg? (1:08:17) How High Will The Fed Hike To? (1:09:31) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 06 Oct 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Learning From the Most Ruthless Robber Baron (Jay Gould) | Greg Steinmetz

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit Greg Steinmetz, investor and financial writer, joins Jack to share insights from his new book,American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Streets Biggest Fortune. Steinmetz maps the financial skullduggery of Jay Gould, an infamous robber baron and investor whose market manipulations left an indelible mark on finance. Steinmetz tells Jack about Goulds unscrupulous schemes in railroad stocks and gold, which destabilized the financial system and made him one of the most hated man in America. Invoking modern-day analogies such as Elon Musk and meme stocks, Steinmetz evaluates the legacy of Americas most daring and ruthless financier, and offers his view on what modern-day investors can learn from Goulds life. -- Follow Greg Steinmetz on Twitter Follow Jack Farley on Twitter Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter Follow Blockworks on Twitter Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, cant-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research Daily Debrief Newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Chapter: Why Jay Gould? (04:05) Gould's Greatest Misdeeds (07:10) Chapter: Cornering The Gold Market (14:18) Fragility of The Banking System During "Free Banking" Era (16:56) Gould's "Deposit Trick" (20:02) Tricks in the Gilded Age vs. Tricks in 2022 (24:50) Jay Gould and the Media (27:29) Why Was Gould So Hated? (29:13) "Don't Fight the Fed" (33:48) The Railroad Business in the 19th Century (37:03) Investor Psychology (41:38) Lessons Learned From Jay Gould (45:01) Why Are There So Many Structurally Unprofitable Companies? (46:48) Gould and Valuation (49:59) Final Lessons From Gould's Legacy (52:46) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 03 Oct 2022 13:00:00 -0000

Liquidity Spiral In The Bond Market Is Causing "Tremendous Stress" | Jim Bianco

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research LLC, joins Jack Farley to explain how the meltdown in the British bond (gilt) market, which occurred on Wednesday, September 28th, is exposing serious cracks in the plumbing of the financial system. Bianco argues that the Bank of Englands injection of liquidity was necessary in order to prevent the failure of a major institution. Bianco tells Farley that the Federal Reserve is not close to pivoting to a looser policy because the labor market remains strong. Bianco breaks down key bond market concepts, such as convexity and duration, explains why we are likely already in a recession, and argues that the work-from-home trend is here to stay. Filmed on Thursday, September 29th. -- Follow Jim Bianco Follow Jack Farley Follow Forward Guidance Follow Blockworks Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at:https://bit.ly/3M1qNIU -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Chaos In the U.K. Government Bond ("Gilt") Market (08:53) What's Next To Break? (15:41) What Can Bring Inflation Down (Other Than A Global Recession)? (19:18) The Stress On Banks Is Tremendous" (33:46) Are Bonds Attractive At These Levels? (36:56) Bianco's Outlook on Stocks (38:47) Im Going To Channel My Inner Zoltan Pozsar Here" (51:05) Why Working From Home Is A Permanent Trend (57:09) Closing Thoughts On The Labor Market and The Fed (1:02:14) Asset Allocation in Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto (1:04:49) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 29 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Oil Will Trade Flat To Down Until Biden Backs Down & China Re-Opens | Rory Johnston

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ Rory Johnston, investor at Price street and author of Commodity Context, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the price of oil, the commodity at the heart of the turmoil in financial markets and the global economy. Johnston explains why he thinks oil will trade flat to down in the short-term as he notes that Chinas zero-covid policy has sharply curtailed oil demand but that may change in 2023.He argues that the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the U.S. stockpile of emergency oil reserves, has drastically changed the supply dynamics and has likely depressed the price. Johnston also shares with Farley his views on other important drivers of oil market such as the proposed price cap, sanctions on Russian oil, and the response function from U.S. shale oil producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). NOTE: This interview was filmed on September 23rd, a day where the price of oil fell by as much as 7%. -- Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Why Is Oil Crashing? (05:41) Demand Destruction & Recession Risk (12:46) Is The Backwardation In Oil (16:44) Biden's Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (27:21) Price Cap On Russian Oil (36:18) The Gasoline Crisis (39:56) Coal (42:53) Volatility and Illiquidity In Oil Markets (46:57) European Electricity Prices (50:17) Natural Gas Unit Economics (54:02) The Mechanics Of A Price Cap on Russian Oil (1:02:18) U.S. Shale (1:11:49) Is Oil Going To Go Up? (1:14:21) How Would A Recession Impact The Price Of Oil? (1:16:35) About Commodity Context (1:18:43) Closing Thoughts On Twitter Sentiment (1:20:57) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 26 Sep 2022 12:33:00 -0000

What Will Break First? | Joseph Wang & Peter Crane

With the Fed hiking interest rates rapidly in order to fight inflation, cash is finally earning its highest yield since before the Great Financial Crisis. Peter Crane, President of Crane Data, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, join Jack to discuss how the growing attractiveness of cash might cause markets to break as investors pull capital out of risk assets and deploy it in cash and money market funds, which harvest yields on cash by investing them in ultra-short duration loans to extremely safe counterparties, primarily the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on September 22, 2022. -- Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit:https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Follow Peter Crane on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/cranedata Follow Joseph Wang on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:10) Reflecting On the Fed's September FOMC Meeting (04:48) What Is A Money Market Fund? (14:37) What Will Break? (18:41) Maturity & Composition (25:31) Why Are There No Inflows Into Money Market Funds? (27:37) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (31:316) Who Invests In Money Market Funds? (39:19) Offshore Dollar Money Market Funds (43:03) New SEC Regulation on Money Market Funds ("Swing Pricing") (51:45) What Part of The Financial System Will Crack First? (1:05:12) How Bad Is Treasury Liquidity? (1:06:33) Pete Crane on Stablecoins (1:10:55) Joseph Wang On Sales of Mortgage-Backed Securities (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 22 Sep 2022 13:01:43 -0000

"I'm Surprised The Market's Not Down More" | Aswath Damodaran

When trying to find a culprit for the bear market in stocks this year, investors often point to the surging yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. But thats only part of the story. Today Jack is lucky to speak to Dr. Aswath Damodaran, professor of valuation and corporate finance at NYU Stern School of Business, who is a pioneer in the field of valuation. Damodaran explains how the intrinsic value of a stocks is its future cash flows discounted back to the present with a discount rate, which is the sum of a risk-free rate on a Treasury bond and an equity risk premium. Damodaran notes that, in addition to risk-free rates surging higher, equity risk premia have expanded significantly. Damodaran also shares his views on inflation, the Federal Reserve, as well as currencies and crypto. Farley aFilmed on September 9, 2022. Data sets can be found on Aswath Damodarans website: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ Lectures and presentations can be found on Aswath Damodarans YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation -- Follow Aswath Damodaran on Twitter https://twitter.com/AswathDamodaran Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The "Sleep Test" (03:40) Inflation's Impact on Equity Valuations (19:43) Equity Duration (40:41) Cost of Capital for Individual Companies (44:17) Commodity & Energy Stocks (52:06) How Liquidity Increases Asset Values (59:53) Crypto, Currencies, and Commodities: Why They Are Impossible To Truly Value (1:11:29) Closing Thoughts On Overconfidence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 20 Sep 2022 19:16:34 -0000

The Sovereign Debt Crisis Is Coming | Brent Johnson

Why has the U.S. dollar exploded higher this year against other currencies, and what does its rise mean for the global economy?Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and outspoken dollar bull, joins Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast, to share his thoughts on what the strength of the greenback indicates about inflation, central banks, and growth rates. Johnson argues that a sovereign debt crisis for China and other emerging markets is within the cards. Filmed on September 14, 2022, on the second day of the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit. Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on Twitter https://twitter.com/BlockworksDAS
Mon, 19 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Bear Market Has Only Just Begun | Ted Oakley

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack Farley to argue that asset prices remain well above their fair value, and that the drawdowns investors have seen in 2022 are likely not over. Oakley shares his outlook on inflation, the business cycle, and the Federal Reserve, and he outlines where he is finding value and safety for his investors in this turbulent macro environment. Filmed on September 6, 2022. -- Follow Oxbow Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/Oxbow_Advisors Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:38) Why Stocks Remain Overvalued (11:04) Why A Deep Recession Is Imminent (16:02) Energy (20:52) Fixed Income (28:14) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation and Interest Rates (32:32) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (41:44) Contrarian View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 15 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Jack to argue that European energy inflation will not, as many believe, cause an economic crisis. Instead, Dillian contends that, no matter the long-term consequences, governments will find solutions to the energy shortage such as price caps on commodity prices, which Dillian says will crush speculators. Dillian shares his framework for evaluating investor sentiment in order to discern the mood of the market and identify ideal turning points to take on contrarian positions. Filmed on September 8, 2022. -- Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Measuring Sentiment via Twitter (04:08) Why Jared Thinks Europe Can Handle Its Energy Situation (06:08) "Speculators Will Get Crushed" (08:08) The Low Cost Basis Fallacy (14:43) Natural Gas (16:30) Price Caps In Energy May Be Coming (21:07) Why Jared Was Bullish on Oil in early 2021 (25:30) The Bubble In Macro Doom (27:12) Central Banks Can't Print Oil (31:43) Outlook on Housing & Stocks (36:22) Jared Dillian As Head Of The Federal Reserve (40:06) "Why Are You Not More Bearish?" (48:25) The Dollar (56:22) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation (58:40) Jared's Book & Concert -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 13 Sep 2022 18:00:00 -0000

False Dawn: Why The Rally Is Over | Andy Constan & Joseph Wang

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Today Jack welcomes Andy Constan, macro investor and publisher of The Damped Spring Report, and Joseph Wang, former senior Fed trader and author of Fedguy.com, to discuss how the Feds reduction of its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting market liquidity and future returns. Constan argues that favorable market conditions that allowed risk assets to rise during the summer are no longer present, and that this false dawn is over. Wang argues that QT will drain the banking system of reserves and the Fed may have to plug leaks in the financial plumbing. Filmed on September 7, 2022. -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Markets (10:38) Equity & Bond Market Flows Over The Past Few Months (15:46) Volatility (Vol) Targeting (24:18) Equity Risk Premium Model (32:13) The "False Dawn" In Asset Prices (38:28) Joseph Wang on Treasury Issuance (43:58) Joseph on "The Reserve Gap" (53:50) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:11) Andy Constan's Outlook on Bonds (1:02:02) How Far Can The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 12 Sep 2022 10:58:00 -0000

The Rise of "Legal Fraud" | Bethany McLean

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack interviews prolific author and journalist, Bethany McLean. McLean's known most prominently for her 2003 book, The Smartest Guys in The Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron. With her coverage of financial scandals in the early 2000s, no one is better equipped for today's discussion about fraud, loopholes, and more. McLean interprets the seismic disruptions in the housing and energy market through her prior work on mortgage-securitizing giant Fannie Mae and on the American shale revolution. McLean argues that financial crimes always require the complicity of the victim, and contends that anyone who thinks they can predict the energy markets or inflation is sorely mistaken. -- Follow Bethany McLean on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bethanymac12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Was The Enron Fraud Allowed To Happen? (12:18) The Rise of Legal Fraud (19:07) Dotcom Bubble 2.0 and Private Equity (23:53) The Housing, Mortgage, and Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Markets (31:55) Inflation And The (Reverse) Wealth Effect (34:34) The Energy Crisis (46:00) Green Energy (48:20) McLean's New Book (49:26) Fictitious Billionaires And Other Hangovers From The 2020 Money Printing Bonanza -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 08 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Eurodollar Market Is Dead, Says Godfather of Financial Derivatives | Dr. Richard Sandor

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Every day, trillions of dollars worth of interest rate derivatives are traded back and forth. And yet despite its stunning size today, 50 years ago the interest rate derivative complex did not exist at all. Today Jack interviews Dr. Richard Sandor, chairman and CEO of the American Financial Exchange (AFX), who is known as the father of financial futures because he created the worlds first interest rate and bond futures in the 1970s. Sandor explains how the relentless inflation of the 1970s caused wild swings in interest rates that jeopardized financial stability, and how the financial futures he created helped tame (or at the very least, transfer) these risks. Sandor argues that the London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR) to which many interest rate futures (often called eurodollar futures) are still pegged has been discredited by the schemes of banks to manipulate it (see link below on LIBOR scandal). Sandor shares his vision for the forthcoming LIBOR replacement in June 2023, and tells Jack about his companys benchmark, AMERIBOR. -- Article on LIBOR scandal: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor-scandal.asp More info on Dr. Richard Sandor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_L._Sandor Follow Dr. Richard Sandor on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drrichardsandor Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Creating The World's First Interest Rate Future (18:16) Creating A Two-Sided Market (24:10) Paul Volcker's Role In Creating Interest Rate Volatility (27:00) Eurodollars: "LIBOR Is Dead, The Emperor Has No Clothes" (35:21) Replacements for LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) (47:44) Carbon Futures -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 05 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Plumbing Of Global Finance Is Clogged | Joseph Wang & Daniel Neilson

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- With the summer rally in risk assets two weeks in the rear view mirror, Jack welcomes two experts on the plumbing of the monetary system, former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Daniel Neilson, economist and author of Minsky and writer of the Soon Parted newsletter. Neilson and Wang exchange views on just how high the Federal Reserve will hike rates in order to tame inflation, with Wang calling Fed chair Powells speech at Jackson Hole a great performance. Neilson shares insights on the changing size and composition of the European Central Banks balance sheet, and then he proceeds to teach Jack about what the relative levels of various repo rates indicates about the supply and demand for Treasury collateral. Lastly, Neilson shares his views on government crackdown of crypto mixer Tornado Cash. Daniel H. Neilson is the principal of Neilson Macro Advisors and author of Minsky from Polity Books, and his newsletter is called Soon Parted. Filmed on August 31, 2022. -- Link to Daniel Neilsons piece on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB): https://www.soonparted.co/p/defrag Link to Daniel Neilsons piece on Tornado Cash: https://www.soonparted.co/p/tornado-cash Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Daniel Neilsons writings can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Analysis of Powell's Remarks at Jackson Hole (09:54) Inflation Expectations (17:17) Just How Far Behind The Curve Is The European Central Bank (ECB)? (29:38) Plumbing Of The Repo System (Warning: Very Advanced) (49:37) Tornado Cash -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 01 Sep 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Fed Doesnt Have What It Takes To Fight Inflation | Joseph Wang & Mish Shedlock

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks London Digital Asset Summit (sale ends Sunday): https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powells remarks at Jackson Hole. Jack welcomes former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Michael Mish Shedlock, economic blogger and investment advisor, to analyze the twin threats of inflation and recession, and the challenges investors and the Federal Reserve face as they try to navigate both. Shedlock argues that the economy is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve will likely overtighten which could kill the stock market. Wang argues that the risk is that the Federal Reserve is too loose, and notes that an excerpt from the July FOMC minutes which Wang saw as cowardly caused Wang to be more open to the view that Powell will cave to dovish political pressure. In his own words, this is the Fed of Arthur Burns.NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powells remarks at Jackson Hole. -- Follow Mish Shedlock on Twitter https://twitter.com/MishGEA Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wangs work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Mish Shedlocks writings can be found here: https://mishtalk.com/ Mishs article on housing: https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-crash-accelerates-sales-down-12-6-percent-in-july July FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220727.pdf -- (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Are We In A Recession Already? (05:48) Housing (15:00) Stagflation (19:58)The Stock Market (21:12) The Wang Pivot (29:27) The Commercial Banking System (35:16) Asset Allocation (36:51) Gold (39:53) The Pension Crisis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 29 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Convertible Bonds: The Everything Asset Class | Paul Latronica

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by Paul Latronica to discuss convertible bonds as an asset class, and more. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:08) What Are Convertible Bonds? (05:00) An Example (19:56) Correlation Between Convertible Bonds and Equity (33:13) Current Valuations (50:44) Finding Alpha In Convertible Bonds (55:20) Current Outlook (1:01:51) Avoiding Pitfalls (1:05:24) Greatest Risk For Convertible Bonds (1:09:33) The Federal Reserve (1:17:32) Most Frequent Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 25 Aug 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Global Shipping Crisis Is Not Over | Sal Mercogliano

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and shipping expert, who discusses the current global shipping crisis and its trajectory for the future. -- Subscribe to Sal Mercogliano's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/WhatisGoingonWithShippingwSalMercogliano Follow Sal Mercogliano on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Shipping As The Ultimate Driver Of Inflation (15:15) Consolidation In The Shipping Industry (22:11) Are There Enough Ships? (Answer: Yes) (23:38) Emission Reduction Goals In Shipping As A Headwind To New Supply (29:11) Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) (33:30) Learning From History (38:28) Recession's Impact on Shipping Rates (44:50) How Profitable Is Shipping Now? (47:11) Non-Owner Operators (52:26) Cruise Lines (1:00:50) Futures On Freight Rates? (1:03:08) Individual Stocks -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 22 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Feds Ticking Time Bomb Is About To Explode | Joseph Wang & Chris Whalen

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In September, the Federal Reserve is set to remove even more liquidity from markets by taking its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program to the next level. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and veteran banker Chris Whalen, join Jack to explain how this additional wave of monetary tightening will send shockwaves through markets, particularly the two assets that comprise the Feds balance sheet: U.S. Treasuries and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Joseph argues that the U.S. Treasury will likely enact a buyback program of its longer-duration securities in order to dampen QTs volatility, and Whalen contends that if the Federal Reserve sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (as opposed to merely letting them mature), armageddon will ensue. Filmed on August 17, 2022. -- Read Joseph Wangs latest piece, The Marginal Buyer: https://fedguy.com/the-marginal-buyer/ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wangs work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Chris Whalens work can be found here: rcwhalen.com -- (00:00) Introduction (01:32) The Effect of Quantitative Tightening (QT) On Commercial Banks (21:00) Vulnerabilities in The Treasury Market (25:15) The Conundrum in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (32:30) The Fed's Banking "Stress Test" (43:43) Swelling Reverse Repo Facility (48:22) The Fed's Giant Mortgage Problem (59:53) How Far Will The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? (1:02:03) Why Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Not Going Down During QT? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 18 Aug 2022 20:00:00 -0000

Why Risk Appetite Is Back | Alfonso Peccatiello, Michael Kantrowitz, Andy Constan & Jack Farley

This is a recording of a Twitter spaces in which Jack Farley exchanges macro views with Alfonso Peccatiello, in a preview to their conversation at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in September 2022, which will feature Mike Green, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Jurrien Timmer. This recording also featured Andy Constan and Michael Kantrowitz. -- Use code MACRO200 to get discounted tickets to the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/?gclid=CjwKCAjwo_KXBhAaEiwA2RZ8hIgyUQTvJmP-g0qAclP5WXFdpLdZSLkarlMTWE9_Po341_j_x5FBBBoCojkQAvD_BwE -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 18 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Liquidity Has Dried Up, Says $100 Billion Investor | Jeffrey Sherman

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Jeffrey Sherman, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, joins Jack to discuss how fixed income markets are handling a slowing economy and the Federals Reserves withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Sherman breaks down how bond values over 2022 have dropped as credit spreads have widened and interest rates have risen. Sherman shares his outlook on the corporate bonds, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Sherman is circumspect after a strong two-month rally but thinks at this stage there is value to be found in agency & non-agency MBS as well as long-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on August 10, 2022. -- Follow The Sherman Show on Twitter https://twitter.com/ShermanShowPod Follow DoubleLine Capital on Twitter https://twitter.com/DLineCap Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:02) Are We In A Recession? (14:01 )The Inverted Yield Curve (22:25) Liquidity (33:09) The "End" Of Forward Guidance (41:17) Outlook on Long-Term Treasury Yields (46:55) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 15 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Fed Is Not In Control Of The Eurodollar System | Hugh Hendry

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Hugh Hendry, macro investor and former chief investment officer of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Jack Farley to make the case that central banks are not in control of the global monetary order. Hendry argues that an inverted yield curve is showing that the Federal Reserve is making a severe policy error. He insists that the rises in consumer prices is not inflation as he defines it because they are not due to the extending of credit by commercial banks. Hendry passionately exhorts the Chinese ruling class to empower the Chinese consumer and allow the Chinese Yuan (RenMinBi) to strengthen to what Hendry thinks is its true market value. Hendry tells Farley he expects commodity prices to remain high due to bad energy policy and he thinks that portfolio managers who are fueling the recent rally in risk assets are making a mistake. Filmed on August 4th, 2022. -- Follow Hugh Hendry on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (09:56) Why Rising Consumer Prices Is Not Inflation (11:06) The Energy Crisis (19:13) Paul Volcker (21:56) China and the Global "Glut of Saving" (28:09) The Eurodollar System (34:08) Is The Fed Effective (39:31) Did the Fed save the world in 2020 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 11 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Real GDP Lending on Blockchain Could Be A Gamechanger | Bill Wolf

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/si Bill Wolf, Chief Investment Officer at TrustToken/TrustLabs joins Jack Farley to talk about all things blockchain: his journey into this new form of currency, real GDP loans, and stablecoins. Bill and Jack talk about TrustToken and the services its business offers in the trading and lending space. What red flags does TrustToken find to help other firms who are looking to invest or take out loans? While struggling lenders in the CeFi space had no choice but to declare bankruptcy, Bill tells Jack that his company TrustToken has never had a single default on its platform. Watch to find out how his company avoided risks that have taken many other companies out. Filmed the afternoon of August 2, 2022. Be on the lookout for The Investors Guide to TrueFi Capital Markets, coming out soon on Blockworks.co. -- Follow TrustToken on Twitter https://twitter.com/TrustToken Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Bill's Journey into Blockchain (07:58) Real GDP Loans on Blockchain (17:05) Stablecoins (23:26) Tether (26:08) TrustToken's Structure (38:05) Lending Terms (47:34) Interest Rate Risks (49:13) Fee Structure (53:15) Definition Of A Credit Loss (57:25) Lender Protections (59:45) Correlation Risk (1:08:47) "We're All Going To Pay For The Sins of Others" (1:10:24) The Future Of Blockchain Lending (1:13:57) The Fed -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 09 Aug 2022 13:00:00 -0000

Real Estate Market Will Stay "Savagely Unhealthy" For A Long Time | Logan Mohtashami

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/sign-up -- Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire joins Jack Farley to talk all things housing: how has the housing market changed since 2019 and what will happen to homes as we approach a recession? Logan and Jack talk about inventory and rates in the housing market, as well as the challenges homebuyers may have entering this space. Does Logan think we will be able to get out this unhealthy real estate market soon? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the afternoon of August 1, 2022. -- Follow Logan Motashimi on Twitter https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashami Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) The Current Health of the Real Estate Market (12:37) Inventory (16:30) Building Homes in the Early 2000's (22:06) Rates (31:51) Signs of a Recession (48:44) Challenges in the Housing Market (55:38) The State of Housing (1:04:16) Effects of a Housing Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 04 Aug 2022 20:30:00 -0000

Pelosis Visit To Taiwan Has Angered China | Jacob Shapiro

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Jack Farley for an impromptu bonus episode to cover how tensions in the South Pacific are rapidly ratcheting up. Shapiro explains the potential economic and geopolitical consequences of ongoing conflict between China and Taiwan, and he and Jack also dive deep into the Chinese real estate crisis. Filmed on August 4, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Thu, 04 Aug 2022 12:02:00 -0000

Collapsing Liquidity Has Put The Commodity Supercycle on Hold | Tian Yang

Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In the summer of 2020, there was no greater proponent of the commodity supercycle thesis - the idea that commodity prices would appreciate for many years in a secular fashion - than Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception. Since then, commodity prices - copper, oil, natural gas, you name it - have skyrocketed. Yet Yang now argues that the commodity supercycle is in intermission because economic growth is slowing rapidly and liquidity is collapsing as central banks rapidly tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation. Yang argues that long-term bonds (duration) will likely perform well in this environment. Yang also shares his view on the Fed, inflation, volatility, and the dollar. Filmed on August 1, 2022. -- Follow Tian Yang on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (05:45) Liquidity Is Collapsing (10:04) How Quickly Will Inflation Fall? (21:38) Is The Fed Put Gone? (26:48) Recessions in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. (31:14) Are Chinese Stocks A Buy? (37:02) European Stocks (38:50) Is The Dollar Rally Over? (45:22) 1984 Historical Analogue (51:40) Term Premium, Explained (57:30) Confidence Levels About Future Inflation (1:02:08) Potential Hedges (1:07:44) Most Common Investor Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 01 Aug 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Summer Meltdown In Stocks Unlikely, Says Volatility Expert Noel Smith

Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Use code guidance to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noels prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting). Link to Noels first video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions (07:09) Forward Volatility (10:53) New Outlooks (19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade (22:00) Navigating High Environments (27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio (33:15) The Nature Of Money (37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility (44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors (49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed (54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market (57:05) Short Squeezes (1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies (1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 28 Jul 2022 12:04:00 -0000

The Most Misunderstood Asset Class Of All Time | Louis Camhi

On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Louis Camhi in this special episode all about SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which are basically empty shell companies that go public in order to buy another company. Recently, the performance of SPACs has been in the red because they've become a vehicle for speculation. But Louis argues that if you redeem the SPACs and get the money back, it's basically like a bond, pointing out the similarities and demystifying this often misunderstood asset class. You won't want to miss this! Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (12:43) What is a PIPE? (Private Investment Equity) (15:10) What Is A SPAC Sponsor? (28:34) Current Opportunity Set Within SPACs (33:00) "Warrants Are The Truth" (35:26) Shorting SPACs (48:52) The Donlad Trump SPAC (DWAC) (50:05) More Aggressive SPAC Strategies (53:40) SPAC Arbitrage and Buy Writes (56:10) Characteristics of SPAC Holders (1:07:12) Where Is The Money Coming From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 27 Jul 2022 13:53:00 -0000

There Are No Doves Left At The Federal Reserve | Nick Timiraos

Ahead of tomorrows FOMC meeting, Nick Timiraos joins Jack Farley to talk about the economy and the Federal Reserve; how has it tightened financial conditions and what are they doing to combat the period of inflation we are currently facing? Timiraos breaks down the concept of Forward Guidance, and explains how to think about forthcoming rate hikes as well as the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT). Timiraos is the Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage. He focuses on the economy and The Federal Reserve. Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 25 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren

Nicholas Glinsman, CEO & CIO at EvoCapital LLC and Harald Malmgren, owner of Malmgren Global LLC, join Jack Farley to discuss the slowing economy: the causes, factors and leaders behind the market. Do leaders like Powell want a recession? Malmgren seems to believe so even though they wouldn't admit to it. Entering a deep recession before midterm elections can be critical in helping kill inflation. -- Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macros favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:01) A Slowing Economy (06:13) Why Is The Economy Slowing So Rapidly? (10:38) Powell, Yellen, and Biden (15:20) How High Will The Fed Hike? (19:39) Liquidity and Volatility (28:37) Reasons for Deglobalization (36:05) The Crypto World (37:59) Harald's View on Long Term Commodities (42:18) China (48:36) Centralization in Economic Growth (51:59)China Is Running Out of Dollars (57:48) The Dollar Milkshake (1:08:05) President Biden's Legacy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 21 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Why Are Commodities Crashing? | Tracy Shuchart

Tracy Shuchart, Partner and Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Jack Farley to talk about all things oil: how different parts of the world are affected by price spikes, supply and demand and other commodities. Why has the price of oil dropped? Looking at detailed charts, Shuchart goes over the oil market in countries such as Russia. -- Follow Tracy Shuchart on Twitter https://twitter.com/chigrl Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Looking at Extreme Oil Corrections (04:25) Current State of the European Energy Markets (06:00) Will Russia Turn Off Europe's Gas? (11:36) Economic Slowdown Playing a Role in Destroying Demand (14:09) Structural Supply Deficit (16:25) Why Is the Price of Oil Collapsing (23:00) Why are Corporations Making so Much Money? (24:30) Comparing Profit Margins (26:45) Tracy's View on Oil Equities and Sensitive Commodities (31:40) The Shorter Term (33:22) Commodities (35:47) Market Currencies in the Eye of the Storm (37:34) Thoughts on Natural Gas, Oil, and Other Disallates (39:30) Coal (41:03) Hedging Issues (43:00) Overrated Equities Within Commodities (48:35) Solar and Wind Stocks (49:43) Stocks Affected by Inflation (53:50) Recessions in the US and Europe -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 18 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Making Informed Decisions as an Individual Investor | Kyrill Asatur

Kyrill Asatur, Co-Founder and CEO at Centerfin, joins Jack Farley to talk about stocks, macro and the .com bubble. Asatur explains how important the services Centerfin offers because they have exclusive access to funds that retail investors normally dont have. What are some of the common behaviorial mistakes investors make? Working with institutional investors for almost 20 years, Asatur says individuals are prone to the same behaviors as retail investors. -- Follow Kyrill Asatur on Twitter https://twitter.com/wallsthobbes Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Macro at Centerfin (03:04) Decisions of an Individual Investor (08:55) Kyrill's View on Macro and the Fed (18:00) Stocks and the Dot Com Bubble (22:41) Centerfin's Accessibility to Funds (30:30) Distressed Bonds (32:41) Thinking About Size (38:45) Private Equity and Venture Capital (41:55) Common Behaviorial Mistakes Investors Make (44:46) What's Happening at Centerfin? (47:21) Kyrill's View on Crypto (53:36) Macro Hedge Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 14 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

No Clear Sign Of Recession Yet, Says Nick Reece

Nick Reece, Vice President of Research at Merk Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the business cycle. He goes through a checklist of topics to dive deeper into including inflation, unemployment rates, mortgage rates and more. Are we currently facing a recession? According to data that the Business Cycle Dating Committee uses, Reece seems to not believe so. But thats not to say that the US will not go through another recession at some point. Reece explains once job reports come out, we can determine economic projections. Filmed on July 7, 2022. -- Follow Nick Reece on Twitter https://twitter.com/nicholastreece Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Nick's Outlook of the Business Cycle (11:13) Getting the Federal Reserve In Trouble (18:18) Expectations on Gas and Inflation (21:28) Unemployment and Inflation in the Cycle (28:54) Bit.com Ad (29:25) Recession on a Global Scale (32:10) PMIs (37:35) The Fed's Attempt to Combat Inflation (45:20) Where Priorities are Placed at the Federal Reserve (46:15) Projections for the Business Cycle (49:17) Asset Allocation (58:15) Looking at the Price to Earnings Ratio (1:00:45) Looking at Liquidity (1:04:58) Are We In A Recession? (1:09:58) Investments Nick Is Excited About -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 11 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Will A Recession End The Commodity Bull Market? | Rick Rule

Link to Rick Rules Symposium on Natural Resource Investing:https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/?affl=BlockWorks Rick Rule, veteran natural resource investor and former CEO of Sprott Inc., an investment firm with over 20 Billion in assets under management, joins Jack to share his current outlook on the commodity complex as well as several lessons he has learned over the course of his career. Lesson #1: dont overstay your welcome. When the price of a stock is assuming a price for the commodity it produces that is higher than you think is sustainable, it might be time to ring the register. Does the recent jittery price action mean a recession is in the cards? Perhaps so. But Rule still believes that underinvestment in production will make a durable commodity bull market very likely. Rule explains his outlook on natural gas, oil, copper, iron, and Uranium, and shares his opinion on several natural resource stocks from all around the globe. Filmed on July 5, 2022. -- Follow Rick Rule on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/RealRickRule Follow Jack on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:29) Commodity Thesis (04:20) Globally Synchronized Recession (10:15) What Matters More - Supply Or Demand? (14:52) Oil (26:23) The Energy Crisis In Europe (35:20) Natural Resource Symposium (39:44) Greatest Lessons Learned (48:53) Uranium (55:00) Natural Gas (57:07) Specific Stocks (1:01:50) Canadian Oil Stocks (1:04:58) Copper and Iron (1:07:32) Hedging (1:13:10) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 07 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

We Are Living In A Silent Depression | Emil Kalinowski

Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as the silent depression. Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around. -- Follow Emil Kalinowski on Twitter https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The World's Third Depression (14:25) Recession Trends (16:08) Reasons For Current State of Depression (24:25) Banker Greed (30:28) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Speculation During A Depression (34:31) Inflation (44:23) The Euro Dollar System (51:20) Lending With the Euro Dollar System (53:29) Federal Reserve's Role in the Economy (1:06:19) Emil's Predictions for the Next 6 Months -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 04 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene

On today's episode of "Forward Guidance", Jack Farley is joined by Victoria Greene the Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth. After a confusing year for many investors, Victoria joins the show to asses current market conditions. Reflecting on the past 10 years of stock market performance, Victoria describes why now is not a "buy the dip" scenario. After seeing exuberance in certain equities, Victoria explains why she is more interested in value equities as we undergo Fed tightening, recession risk and market liquidity issues. To hear Victoria's thoughts, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Victoria Greene on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/victoria-greene-cfa-b51521119/ Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ =- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) What is G Squared Private Wealth (07:20) Shifting From Growth to Value In 2021 (11:42) Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Scenario (17:44) Current Market Liquidity (28:02) More Pain To Come For Unprofitable Technology Companies (33:13) VC, Private Equity & SPACs (40:50) Risk of Recession (46:58) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stferle and Mark Valek

Ronald Stferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (the wolf) and a striking economic downturn (the bear) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world. Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly. -- Follow Mark Valek on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkValek Follow Ronnie Stoeferle on Twitter https://twitter.com/RonStoeferle Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: 2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Background (06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble (26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time (40:45) Bit.com (41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook (54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook (1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot? (1:14:00) Counterparty Risk -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 27 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

In 6 to 12 Months, Were Going To Have A Big Problem | Eric Basmajian & Joseph Wang

Is a recession imminent? What will the impact be on asset prices - and to what degree would it cause the Federal Reserve to stop tightening monetary policy? Today Jack welcomes Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, to answer these very important questions. -- Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Josephs writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:00) Economic Growth Is Stalling (05:00) What Is A Recession? (07:22) The Fed's "Unconditional" Commitment To Fight Inflation (09:20) Odds Of A Soft Landing (17:36) Timeline of a Recession (24:28) Fall Of The Commodity Complex (32:13) Demographics and Inflation (41:45) Bank Lending's Role In Inflation (53:45) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 23 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard

In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now. Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun. -- Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections (19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect (24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating (29:20) Looking at Economic Trends (35:02) Bit.com Ad (35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution (40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs (42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies (46:50) Zombie Companies (48:45) The Big Tech Companies (53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year (59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve (1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors (1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries (1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades (1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ (1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market (1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 20 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Trading Volatility in Volatile Markets | Benn Eifert

In this episode of Forward Guidance Benn Eifert, Founder & CIO of QVR Advisors joins the show for a deep dive discussion on all things volatility. As markets are all down year to date, many investors have been surprised with the orderly selling and lack of increase in the VIX. Luckily we have Benn on the show to share the role of put options in this market, wether or not macro matters for volatility traders and volatility at both the single stock and index level. We also discussed the past two years of stimulus induced retail options trading, how market structure has evolved, the best hedges for a slowly falling market and when we could expect a market bottom. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Benn Eifert on Twitter https://twitter.com/bennpeifert Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background (05:10) The Rise (And Fall?) Of Retails Options Traders (08:50) Put Options' Role In This Year's Viscous Sell-Off (13:57) The VIX (19:29) The Pricing of Tail Risk (24:32) Best Hedges For A Slowly Falling Market (28:00) Single-Stock Volatility (33:34) How Responsive Are Options Market Makers? (39:58) Credit and Treasury Volatility (48:11) Options Expiry ("OpEx") (55:35) Common Options Mistakes (1:01:00) The Macro (1:05:50) Does The VIX Have To Spike In Order For Stocks To Bottom? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fri, 17 Jun 2022 18:30:00 -0000

Market Crash Unlikely Until July, Says Volatility Veteran | Noel Smith

Noel Smith, chief investment officer and head of options trading at Convex Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance for a special time-sensitive episode to share an observation from the options markets that he thinks could exert some buying pressure over the next two weeks. Smith notes that, due to a large asset manager putting on a collar a while back, options market makers are long lots of gamma at the 3620 level on the S&P 500, and thus will be forced buyers on the way down as they strive to remain delta neutral. This dynamic will only become stronger until the very end of June, and the fireworks in the S&P 500 may not start until July. Not investment advice. Filmed on June 16, 2022. -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 17:45:00 -0000

Cash Is King During Fed's Hawkish Warpath, Says Former $20 Billion Fund Manager

Alfonso Alf Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and former $20 Billion fund manager, joins Jack Farley to break down yesterdays action-packed Fed meeting, in which Fed Chair Jay Powell laid out the Feds revised framework for moderating the rampant inflation that has beset the U.S. economy. Alf tells Jack why the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed aims for requires a further fall in risk assets, and therefore he expects that cash will perform well. Filmed the morning of June 16, 2022. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Alfonso Peccatiellos writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ His most recent piece that he and Jack discuss can found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop?s=r#details -- The Feds June statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220615a1.pdf The Feds Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) FOMC Overview (06:30) Powell - Good Cop or Bad Cop? (09:40) Inflation Expectations and Terminal Rate (12:25)Leverage and VaR Shock (17:08) Can The Fed Actually Control Inflation? (23:13) The Impact Of Higher Rates On Portfolio Allocation (29:37) What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio? (41:43) The Fed's Real Yield Paradigm Shift -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 16 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Soft Landing Very Unlikely As Global Inflation Crisis Rages On | Darius Dale & Juliette Declercq

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by two phenoms of macro analysis: Juliette Declercq of JDI Research and Darius Dale of 42Macro. The two explore the likelihood of the Feds much-desired soft landing, a scenario in which inflation moderates without a severe hit to economic growth or asset prices. Both Declercq and Dale argue that a soft landing is unlikely and that a fall in inflation will likely require not only a steep selloff in stocks but also a nosedive in economic growth that could amount to a recession. The trio also discuss the natural rate of interest (R*), financial repression, and demand destruction. -- Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42macroDDale Follow Juliette Declercq on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulietteJDI Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter ____ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) The Most Confusing Times In Macro? (04:30) How Far Can The Fed Go In Tightening Monetary Policy? (10:35) Odds Of A Soft Landing (21:02) What Will It Take To Break Inflation? (26:20) Bit.com Ad (26:52) The End Of Free Money (29:54) Europe (34:14) Shorting Equities (38:00) "The Scariest Chart in Macro" (44:07) Asset Allocation -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 18:30:00 -0000

The Bear Market Is Here, What Next? | Joseph Wang & Alfonso Peccatiello

With stocks, crypto, bonds, gold, and commodities tanking, Jack calls an emergency podcast and asks trusted Forward Guidance regulars, Joseph Wang and Alfonso Peccatiello, to put the ongoing market volatility in the context of runaway inflation and central bank tightening. Filmed live on June 13, 2022. Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Joseph on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe to The Macro Compass: TheMacroCompass.substack.com Joseph's latest piece, "Turbo Tightening," can be found here: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/ Alfs latest piece, The True Reason Why Central Banks Do QE, can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/portfolio-rebalancing-qe?s=r#details Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Liquidity Has Fallen Off A Cliff | Joseph Wang & Michael Howell

In this episode of Forward Guidance, fan favourites Michael Howell and Joseph Wang pair up to discuss the overarching theme of liquidity and the Fed. After sounding the alarm and forecasting a decline in equity markets towards the end of 2021, those predictions are now beginning to manifest in markets. Michael walks listeners through how he tracks market liquidity as a leading indicator for equity prices. Joseph provides an in depth look at the signals driving the Fed in this environment. Both guests share their thoughts on the Powell pivot myth, volatility, signs of stagflation, QT and so much more. This episode is jam packed with insights you can't afford to miss, but to hear them, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Michel Howell on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) What Is Liquidity? (09:10) Declining Refinancing Capacity (13:46) Bagehot's Rule and The Discount Window (24:50) Is This Unprecedented? (28:35) Is Waiting For A Powell Pivot Futile? (30:16) The Fed And The VIX (33:16) Inflation and Recession (36:24) How Much QT Can The Fed Actually Do? (39:20) Gold and Crypto (41:17) The U.S. Dollar's Role (45:17) The People's Bank of China (46:43) How Much Power Does the Fed Actually Have? (49:12) The Commercial Banking System (53:33) Where Are Long-Duration Bond Yields Headed? (1:02:28) Yield Curve Interpretations (1:07:08) Is There A Problem Lurking In Credit? (1:09:03) "Good Liquidity" vs. "Bad Liquidity" (1:12:55) China (1:18:10) Closing Thoughts On The Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 09 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Fed Is Burning Money | Harley Bassman

Today Jack is joined by none other than the Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman, who shares why he is wildly bullish on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) even as the Federal Reserve is in the process of reducing its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT). Bassman explains why long-term interest rates have shot up by so much and makes the case that, while he is confident that inflation will continue to run hot, the sell-off in long-duration Treasurys may not continue. Bassman goes on to explain the significance of the spike in interest rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index, his creation, and shares several investment theses on municipal bonds and equity LEAPs. Filmed on Friday, June 3, 2022. -- Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ConvexityMaven Follow Jack Farley on Twitter:https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Referenced In The Show: The Water Is Warm In The MBS Pool: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Convexity-Maven-MBS-Pool.pdf Fire Insurance - Revisited: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Convexity-Maven-Fire-Insurance-Revisited.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Historic Bond Sell-Off (09:48) Credit Vol (17:14) Is There A Powell Put On Credit? (21:56) Is Quantitative Tightening (QT) Money Burning? (25:05) Bit.com Ad (33:49) Yield Curve Inversion (41:26) Outlook on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (44:59) Pre-Payment and Extension Risk (51:42) Will MBS Convexity Humble the Fed? (1:00:08) Bassman's Highest Conviction View (1:03:38) Municipal Bonds (1:04:42) Longer-Dated Calls on Equity Indices -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 06 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Inflation Is Popping The Biggest Asset Bubble Of All Time | Michael Kao

Today Jack welcomes Michael Kao, retired hedged manager and private investor, on Forward Guidance for a wide-ranging conversation on liquidity, energy markets, cryptocurrency, and convertible bond arbitrage. Kao argues that risk assets have benefited from a liquidity lottery of quantitative easing and low rates, and that as a result financial markets are in a huge bubble that reminds him of the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. Kao explains why he is skeptical about the value of digital assets, and he does a deep dive into the capital structure of MicroStrategy ($MSTR). Important disclosure: Kao recently entered a short position in $MSTR. Kao is a veteran investor with a wealth of expertise in options pricing, commodity trading, convertible bond arbitrage, and global macro. He has over three decades of investing experience at Goldman Sachs, Canyon Capital Advisors, as well as Akanthos Capital Management, his own hedge fund. Nothing in this podcast should be considered as investment advice. Filmed on June 2, 2022. -- Follow Michael Kao on Twitter:https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Jack Farley on Twitter:https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter:https://blockworks.co/newsletter To get in touch with Jack Farley about sponsoring Forward Guidance, emailjack@blockworks.co. -- (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Michael Kao's Background (08:30) The New Dotcom Bubble 2.0 (22:50) The Rho Hedge War Story From 2008 (29:16) Will The Fed Pivot? Can The Fed Pivot? (34:45) MMT (42:05) The Energy Crisis (49:16) The Black Swan For American Oil (59:09) Speculative Bubbles As Inflation Capacitors (1:02:12) How Do You Value Crypto? (1:10:05) Housing Bubble? (1:11:14) Will QT Steepen The Yield Curve? (1:14:38) Digital Assets (1:18:00) How MicroStrategy Funds Its Bitcoin Purchases (1:28:58) "He's Not In Trouble Right Now" -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 02 Jun 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Fed Hawkishness Is A Charade - If Powell Doesnt Pivot, Prepare For A Depression | Larry McDonald

Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of A Colossal Failure Of Common Sense, thinks that those who take the Federal Reserve at its word are making a serious error. McDonald wastes little time to argue that the Federal Reserves assurances that it will tighten monetary policy (by raising rates and reducing its balance sheet) amount to little more than a sham: a series of promises that it can never keep, because doing so would plunge the United States into a deep recession. McDonald explains that, while he does not expect the S&P 500 to reach a new high for several years, he is anticipating a sharp rally in risk assets as the Federal Reserve tones down its hawkish rhetoric and abandons the most extreme of its measures to moderate inflation. McDonald argues that this supportive liquidity environment will drag the U.S. Dollar down and give an even greater lift to the ongoing bull market in energy as well as other hard assets such as gold. Filmed on May 31, 2022. -- Larry McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/larry_macdonald Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:50) Can The Fed Reduce Its Balance Sheet? (04:36) The Fed's Choice Between Stagflation and a Recession (09:39) How High Can The Fed Get? (19:27) Dot-com Bubble 2.0? (24:23) Outlook on S&P 500 (27:25) Bit.Com (27:55) The Energy Trade (31:44) Have We Reached Full Panic Mode Yet? (34:45) Commercial Real Estate (36:52) Shorting The U.S. Dollar (41:27) Inflation and Deglobalization (45:08) ESG Investing (49:25) Global Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 30 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Energy Stocks Remain Undervalued, Says Worlds Best Performing Hedge Fund Manager | Josh Young

Josh Young is the founder and chief investment officer of Bison Interests, an energy investment fund whose returns since October 2020 are ranked #1 in the HFM database. Young argues that, despite the phenomenal performance of the energy sector over the past 18 months, there are upstream producers that remain extremely undervalued relative to their current cash flows. Young explains why he thinks many of the major oil companies are burning capital and why he prefers smaller producers that are not on the radar of many investors flooding into the space. He shares his views on ESG, divestment, and the idea of a carbon bubble. This conversation is not investment advice. Filmed on May 27, 2022. -- Follow Josh Young on Twitter https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Bison Interests on Twitter https://twitter.com/BisonInterests Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Todays episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (00:10) Background (01:01) Supply Constraints (21:38) Is Energy Investing Just A Bet On The Price Of Oil? (33:04) Risks To The Energy Trade (56:14) Company-Specific Analysis (1:17:14) Is There A Carbon Bubble? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 26 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Europe and China: Already In Recession | Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges returns in a deep discussion on inflation, China, and the Federal Reserve. Paul joins Jack Farley to discuss recession and recession risk in Europe, China, and the U.S., as well as the fate of inflated hyper-growth stocks. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (13:45) Why Is Inflation Bad For Stocks? (21:24) Fate of Hyper-Growth Tech Stocks (23:15) Tesla (27:23) Ben Graham's Valuation Rules (30:03) Bit.com Ad (30:34) Recession In Europe (42:39) Recession Risk in the U.S. (46:10) Housing (49:05) The Federal Reserve (52:14) Chemicals Market Flashing Warning Signals (56:00) Recession in China (1:07:07) Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Wed, 25 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Central Banks Are Scrambling To Contain An Inflationary Wage Price Spiral | Nick Glinsman & Joseph Wang

Nick Glinsman, macro hedge fund manager and author at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) and Jack Farley to explore whether the Federal Reserve is at all disturbed by the vicious sell-off in risk assets, or if the carnage in equities and credit is actually in service of its mandate to control stable prices. Glinsman argues that the global economy is on the verge of a wage-price spiral for the first time in four decades, and the central bankers will be in no hurry to reverse course on their hawkish policy. Taking from his extensive experience working at some of the worlds most successful hedge funds, Glinsman warns viewers not to slip on a banana skin as they navigate the macro landscape. Joseph Wangs message to the viewers banking on a Powell Put is even more stark: wake the ____ up. -- Nick Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Nick Glinsman's writings can be found at https://intelligencequarterly.com/. Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/. -- Todays episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Banana Skins In This Market (13:14) The Fall Of The "Transitory" Narrative (23:30) The Wealth Effect in Reverse (30:50) Ad (36:07) Have Central Banks Lost Control? (41:18) The Dollar and Bonds (50:28) Bretton Woods III (59:55) Inflationary Hikes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tue, 24 May 2022 19:30:00 -0000

The Fed's $3 Trillion Problem | Maroon Macro & Joseph Wang

Joseph Wang & Maroon Macro join me for a deep dive into the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's $3 Trillion problem. As t bill issuance dries up, reverse repo's spike & money market funds park their assets elsewhere, how will the Fed's quantitive tightening program and rate hikes effect the plumbing of the global financial system? Luckily I have two monetary plumbing experts to answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Maroon: https://twitter.com/Maroon_Macro Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_@FedGuy12 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 19 May 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Can Gold Withstand the Liquidity Drain? | Sean Fielder

Sean Fielder, chief investment officer at Equinox Partners, joins Jack Farley to discuss his views on gold, mining, inflation, the and Federal Reserves continued tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks, diving into everything from ESG investing to a mine's lifecycle and lifestyle. __ Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Intro (02:26) Emerging Markets And The Dollar (15:32) New Bretton Woods (17:19) How Far Can The Fed Go? (19:07) Is Gold An Inflation Hedge? (26:36) Bit.com Ad (27:06) Energy, Oil & Gas (39:44) ESG Investing (Environmental, Societal, and Governance) (46:08) Junior Gold Miners (53:16) Common Problems That Junior Gold Mining Companies Have (55:56) Jurisdictional Risk (1:05:05) Lifecycle Of A Mine (1:06:26) The Future Of Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 16 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Why Fed Chair Powell is NOT Coming To Rescue Stocks | Alfonso Peccatiello

On today's episode of "Forward Guidance," Jack Farley is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass newsletter and host of The Macro Trading Floor podcast on the Blockworks network. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. Alfonso joins Jack to share his outlook on the Feds efforts to tighten financial conditions in the hope of reining in inflation. Will these efforts crush the stock market? Will the Fed get its much-desired soft landing? Are there emerging signs of stress in credit spreads? In Alfonso's mind, one thing is for sure, Powell will NOT pivot this time. Monetary policy will be tightened until inflation is under control, Alfonso argues, and those investors relying on a Powell Pivot will be left holding the bag. Alfonsos writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/, here are some of the specific pieces he and Jack referenced: What If?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/what-if?s=r A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/serious-ish-about-inflation?s=r Alfonso Peccatiello on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Tightening Financial Conditions (08:17) The Macro Compass Quadrant Model (12:08) Stock Market Time Horizons (15:44) Shorting The S&P 500 (19:17) BCB Ad (20:06) Surging High Yield Bonds in Europe (22:53) Credit Spreads (29:43) Powell Is NOT Going to Pivot (35:42) Will the Fed Get Their Soft Landing? (38:58) When Will Bonds Become a Buy? (47:08) Changing Your Minds in Markets -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 12 May 2022 13:00:00 -0000

The Everything Risk Is Here | Ed Harrison

Ed Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of The Everything Risk, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserves ongoing tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks. Harrison shares his outlook on China, commodities, the FAANG stocks, and why he sees the makings for a new era for markets. __ Follow Ed Harrison on Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardnh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (02:36) Is The Era of East Money Over? (04:56) Comparisons to the 2000s Tech Album (13:30) Valuing Companies With Network Effects (16:23) Markets Reaction To Monetary Policy (18:46) ARKK (22:25) Fed Rate Hikes & Credit Markets (27:26) Where Is The Fed Put? (31:53) Bit.com Ad (32:25) A Shift From Deflation to Inflation? (37:31) FANTAMAN Stocks (40:28) How China is Exporting Stagflation (41:55) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine & The Effect On Energy Markets (46:19) Will High Energy Prices Cause Demand Destruction? (50:05) 5YR Breakeven Inflation (51:40) Inflation in Europe (52:58) The Global Dollar Wrecking Ball (56:06) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mon, 09 May 2022 15:00:00 -0000

Its Game Over For The Everything Bubble, Says George Noble, Peter Lynchs Protg

George Noble has seen many bubbles in his storied career: the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the Dotcom Bubble of 2000, and the Japanese mega-bubble which he rode on the way up and down. But no prior period of speculation compares to what Noble sees now: a mega bubble of epic proportions, fueled primarily by a wave of central bank liquidity that has taken non-profitable technology stocks to previously unimaginable heights. Noble argues that inflation has been popping this bubble and that equities are toast and that goldilocks is dead. Noble sees overvaluation problems not only in the ARKK stocks but also darlings of the S&P 500 such as Amazon, Apple, and Netflix. As a warning to viewers, Noble shares words from the legendary investor Peter Lynch (his mentor): know what you own. George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Background (06:55) The Everything Bubble (13:36) The Powell Pivot (20:58) ARKK (25:43) BCB Ad (26:32) Inflation Is Popping The Bubble In Long-Duration Assets (39:50) Are Bonds A Hedge For Stock Sell-offs? (Answer: No) (41:12) How Low Can Stocks Go? (43:22) Netflix and Amazon (50:10) "Peter Lynch Would Not Be Buying Apple Right Now" (52:50) Energy (59:30) Crypto (1:02:50) Noble's Twitter Spaces -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 May 2022 13:00:00 -0000

The Food & Energy Crisis Has Only Just Begun | Doomberg

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by the mysterious green chicken known only as Doomberg, a research publication on energy, food, and fertilizer. Doomberg argues that the ongoing surge in oil and natural gas prices is due to key policy errors that, if they continue, will ensure that price shock will turn into a full-blown energy and food crisis that will push many countries to the brink of recession, particularly Europe and frontier market nations. Doomberg breaks down the frightening dependence of Europe on Russian energy and explains how, in the case of Germany, a rejection of nuclear power by so-called environmentalists led to its embrace of coal. -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Doomberg https://doomberg.substack.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI (edited) -- (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Start of Doomberg (05:27) Core Energy Thesis (12:00) How Germany's Rejection of Nuclear Led To Its Embrace Of Coal (14:32) The Weaponization of Russia's Natural Gas (19:40) Europe's Dependence on Russian Energy (34:00) Bit.com Ad (34:30) Nuclear Power (39:20) Farmers On The Brink (47:30) Oil (54:57) Renewables (01:08:36) Questions From Audience -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Thu, 05 May 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Fed Chair Powell Says Goodbye To Era Of Easy Money | Jim Bianco & Joseph Wang

Follow Jim Bianco https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Opening Thoughts (08:05) Powell's "Codewords" (15:10) The Balance Sheet: Stock vs. Flow (22:10) Is The Fed No Longer Credible? (27:32) When Is Inflation Going to Peak? (47:15) Worst Bond Market Sell-Off Since George Washington Became President (51:30) Systemic Risks For The Financial Systems (53:00) Are Rate Hikes Good for Commercial Banks? (1:01:04) How Far Can The Fed Go?
Mon, 02 May 2022 20:35:21 -0000

A Dilemma Of The Feds Own Making | Danielle DiMartino Booth & Joseph Wang

Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder and CEO of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley and former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang to share her outlook on this weeks FOMC meeting. Booth argues that the Federal Reserves lateness to fight inflation has caused it to lose a lot more credibility, and makes the case that it risks to lose even more credibility if it fails to recognize that the economy is slowing rapidly. Booth notes that credit spreads are widening rapidly and argues that it will be a credit market blow-up, not an equity market drawdown, that forces the Federal Reserve to change course. Wang and Booth discuss how rising mortgage rates will deter the Fed from shrinking its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and they each give their take on the continued sell-off in Treasury bonds.Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter @DiMartinoBooth Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter athttps://blockworks.co/newsletter
Fri, 29 Apr 2022 20:06:12 -0000

Why The Repo Market Will Need The Feds Cash Yet Again | Scott Skyrm & Joseph Wang

Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income & repo at Curvature Securities, joins former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and host Jack Farley to share his insights from deep within the repo markets. Skyrm explores whether the Feds forthcoming balance sheet runoff will agitate repo markets like last time in September 2019, when repo rates spiked higher. Skyrm (@ScottSkyrm) and Wang (@FedGuy12) weigh important considerations, such as the Feds involvement with the market and what current repo rates indicate about the level of bond shorting. Skyrm tells Farley (@JackFarley96) that the trillions of Treasury collateral that the market will have to absorb over the next year will drain the ~$1.8 Trillion in Feds reverse repo facility, yank repo rates higher, and eventually cause the market to rely once again on the Feds standing repo facility. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
Thu, 28 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Short Everything Trade | Teddy Vallee

Jacks next guest is someone who has timed this cycle better than literally anyone he knows in macro. Since the beginning of the year, the elusive Teddy Vallee has been short almost everything, stocks but in particular U.S. government bonds, which are in the midst of their most vicious sell-off in almost 40 years. But very recently, Teddy has closed his short in government bonds and has actually entered a massive long position in Treausurys. Teddy tells Farley why he expects growth and inflation to slow rapidly as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. A note on the title: up until very recently, Vallee had the everything short (short stocks and bonds) on. But now that he is long bonds, he no longer does. Filmed on Tuesday, April 26. -- Follow Teddy Vallee on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com. Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Teddy's Successful Bond Short in Early 2022 (04:20) Teddy's Successful Equity Short in Early 2022 (05:43) The Economy Is Slowing Rapidly (07:58) The Fed's Key Error (11:05) Chinese Lockdowns Destroying Economic Growth (16:06) Going From Short to Long The Bond Market (23:33) What If The Fed Remains Hawkish (26:14) Bit.com Ad (26:46) Oil & Bretton Woods 3 (28:46) Confidence Levels Of Long Bond Trade (30:12) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Bond Yields (38:35) When Will Powell Pivot? (41:30) Gold (42:25) Crypto If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Mon, 25 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Can Europe's Economy Handle Russian Sanctions? | Frances Coppola

Frances Coppola, Economist, Author & banking expert, joins Forward Guidance to give an update on how the West's new sanctions on Russia are playing out. Coppola explains how key commodities such as Russian natural gas and oil continue to flow to Western countries, and she makes an impassioned case for why a ban on Russian energy is necessary to thwart the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. -- Follow Frances Coppola on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) Overview of Sanctions on Russia (07:08) Oil & Natural Gas (09:30) Wheat (14:20) Demand Destruction and Recession Risk (18:00) When Will We Hit Peak Inflation? (21:20) Central Bank Response Function (27:01) The European Central Bank (ECB) And Inflation (32:02) BCB Ad (35:45) The Dollar's Surge (1:20:36) Breton Woods III
Thu, 21 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Expect a 30% Correction in Stocks, Says Godfather Of Global Liquidity | Michael Howell

Liquidity is a critical concept in markets that many may have heard, but few truly understand. Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the global liquidity flows. He breaks down what liquidity is and he explains to Jack Farley how the tide of liquidity that has lifted asset prices over the past two years is reversing very quickly. Howell argues that, since 95% of central banks are tightening at the same time, the short-term risk/reward for stocks is poor, and he thinks a further 20% correction is ahead for the equity market. Howell explains the complex yield curve dynamics, and explains why the ongoing liquidity collapse might finally make long-term government bonds attractive once again. Filmed on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. A note on the title: Howells expectation of a 30% in stocks is from peak-to-trough, and since equities are down nearly 10% already, that would equate to a further fall of 20% from current levels (not 30% from current levels). _ Follow Cross Border Capital on Twitter @crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com. Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) What Is Liquidity? (10:59) The Turbulence Zone (21:06) What Will Be The First To Break? (23:58) Why Are Stocks And Credit Still So Richly Priced? (26:35) But What About Inflation? (32:24) Bit.com Ad (43:32) Can China Save the Day? (47:05) Why Falling Liquidity Causes A Dollar Squeeze (50:33) How High Oil Prices Further Deteriorate Liquidity (53:04) History of Global Liquidity (56:28) Capital Wars and Bretton Woods III (1:08:25) Is The Yield Curve Signaling A Recession? (1:09:56) How Far Will The Fed Get With QT? (Bagehot's Dictum)
Wed, 20 Apr 2022 12:56:47 -0000

Commercial Banks Taper Treasury Purchases | Joseph Wang & DC Analyst

DC Analyst joins Joseph Wang and Jack Farley for a discussion about commercial banks, treasuries, and bearishness on banks. -- DC on Twitter: @AnalystDC Joseph Wang on Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_ -- Links ___ Liberty Street Economics, "The Feds Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility": https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/04/the-feds-balance-sheet-runoff-and-the-on-rrp-facility/ Bullard's Triple Rate Hike Comment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/last-resort-fed-hike-enters-debate-as-bullard-invokes-1994-move DC's substack: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-15?s=r Joseph Wang's writings: https://fedguy.com/draining-the-rrp/ -- (00:00) Introduction To DC Analyst (02:01) Why Are Banks Buying Fewer Treasuries? (14:30) Implosion Of The Japanese Yen (20:40) Who Will Buy The Treasuries? (31:20) What If Banks Don't Lend More? (37:30) Bearish For Banks? (No) (42:47) Quantitative Tightening - Will The Fed Be Forced to Sell? (46:57) Mortgage-Backed Securities (57:40) Bullard's Comments on Triple-Hike
Mon, 18 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Think Rising Rates Are Good For Banks? Think Again!

An oft-cited fact is that rising rates support the profitability of the commercial banking system. Chris Whalen, veteran banker, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors & Author of The Institutional Risk Analyst begs to differ. Whalen explains to Farley that banks make money by the spread between their yield on their loans and their cost of funds, and that while rising rates do increase loan yields, they also increase banks cost of funds. Whalen also explains why he thinks the Federal Reserve will be unable to do Quantitative Tightening because it will be stuck with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for many years. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:35) Inflation (18:13) The Problem The Fed Faces with Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (21:08) Can the Federal Reserve Become Insolvent? (24:57) Mortgage Lending At Commercial Banks27 (27:32) BCB Ad (28:20) Are Rising Rates Good For Banks? (31:54) Why A Recession Is Likely? (34:51) Outlook on Bank Stocks and U.S. Treasuries (44:00) Biggest Risk: Non-Bank Lenders (48:31) Credit Card Lending (51:16) Will Banks Suffer Losses from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine? (54:40) European Banks (58:35) Jack's Post-Conversation Explanation
Thu, 14 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Slaying the Inflation Dragon | Jurrien Timmer

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, joins Forward Guidance to explain his outlook of the current macro environment marked by slowing rates of growth and inflation coming down from high levels as central banks scramble to tighten monetary conditions. Timmer notes that while risk-free rates (as measured by Treasury yields) have risen sharply, risk premia as measured by credit spreads - and, in particular, the earnings yield of stocks - have barely budged. Timmer shares his outlook on bonds, commodities, equities at this point in the economic cycle, and he explains his long-term bull case for Bitcoin, as well as why one of his models indicates gold is severely undervalued (not investment advice). Nothing Timmer or Farley say is investment advice.Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter @TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.comis a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020,Bit.comhas been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options.Bit.comis the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contactvip@bit.com. Sign up URL:https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL:https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (06:08) Where Are We In The Cycle Now? (12:40) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (21:29) The Stock Market (30:22) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Commodities (36:25) Gold (44:24) Will The Fed Reverse on Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (56:48) Japanification & Yield Curve Control (1:06:18) Bitcoin
Wed, 13 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Inflation Forces The Fed's Hand | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves

Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and George Goncalves to discuss the bond market, plumbing, inflation & more. -- Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow George Goncalves @bondstrategist Follow @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 10 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Birth of the U.S. Dollar | Roger Lowenstein

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Roger Lowenstein to discuss his new books and the intricacies of the American financial institution during and before the Civil War. Taking a look back at history, Roger is able to make connections to our modern day and how we can empower ourselves by knowing our backstory. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:27) American Finance Before the Civil War (06:46) How Did the North Fund the Civil War? (15:25) How the South Funded The Civil War? (18:56) Disastrous Inflation In The South (24:02) BCB Ad (25:25) Illegal Cotton Smuggling And Parallels To Russian Gas (34:20) Will Commodity Price Shock Cause A Recession? (37:36) Inflation (42:28) The Fed (47:03) Final Reflection on President Lincoln
Thu, 07 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Bullish Commodities? Not So Fast | Lukas Kuemmerle

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Lukas Kuemmerle joins Jack Farley to talk his commodity plan and interests in 2022. As someone interested not only in the strategy, but background of commodities, Lukas provides a comprehensive explanation of each of his commodity interests, discusses the current situation in Germany, and makes a case for his bullishness on Bitcoin. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Background and Framework (05:01) Commodity Overview (11:00) Oil & Natural Gas (23:54) Inflation Amid Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (26:15) Why Lukas Got Short-Term Skeptical of Commodity Prices In March (31:07) Backwardation & Contango (34:30) Bearish On Soybeans (39:26) Wheat (41:08) Shipping (46:08) Bearish Copper (48:50) Dollar Strength (50:32) Germany (55:40) Bitcoin
Wed, 06 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Zoltan Pozsar Calls For Bretton Woods III | Joseph Wang

Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang to discuss Zoltan Pozsar's recent Global Money Dispatch titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'. Read Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III here: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V -- Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 03 Apr 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Inflationary Recession Is On The Horizon | Paul Hodges

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle. Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021 (03:57) Forecasting A Recession (08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation (14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe (16:42) Oil Market Outlook (19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy (25:12) BCB Group Ad (26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy? (39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil (41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World (57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market (1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & Beyond
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

When Volatility Strikes, Watch Out! | Kris Sidial

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020. After noticing how the micro structure of markets had changed due to passive investing, buy side flows, primary dealer hedging post 2008 & ever increasing amounts of QE by the Fed, Kris founded Ambrus Group to take advantage of periods of increased volatility. Kris takes us all the back to March 2020, discussing the market mechanics which led to such a rapid sell-off. Now in 2022, as markets face increasingly uncertain headlines & the Fed begins tightening, Kris gives his outlook for 2022, sharing his key indicators to look out for, to avoid your portfolio being hit by volmageddon 2.0. -- Follow Follow Kris Sidial: @Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_ Barclays' VXX price jump drives double-digit gains for volatility arbitrage fund: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/barclays-vxx-price-jump-drives-double-digit-gains-volatility-arbitrage-fund-2022-03-16/ -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 27 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Nothing Destroys Inflation Like a Recession | Darius Dale

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes returning guest, Darius Dale of 42Macro. Darius sits down to discuss the current macro environment from recession warning signals on the horizon, stock & bond correlations during market sell-off's, the outlook for commodities in this environment, ARKK & other high beta assets and the mechanics driving inflation & the yield curve. 42Macro website: https://42macro.com/ Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ -- -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 24 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Will Janet Yellen Pull the Trigger? | Andy Constan

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Andy Constan joins Jack to discuss the latest in financial news, reflecting on the Fed while discussing topics like market plumbing, roll-downs, and more. Andy Constan injects his absolute expertise of the subject matter into this interview-- you won't want to miss it. Follow Andy Constan @dampedspring Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Tue, 22 Mar 2022 20:31:01 -0000

The Fed's Forward Guidance Is No More | with Nick Timiraos

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Nick Timiraos to discuss the Fed, forward guidance, and what the recent news all means for both. Follow Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 20 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Short Selling in the Age of Fraud | Carson Block

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Carson Block, Investor & Founder of Muddy Waters Research. Known for his role in activist short selling, Carson shares how he began his career in investing, what led him to being an activist short seller & reflects on the past two years of markets in the face of reckless monetary policy. Carson goes on to share the hows and whys of short selling, techniques for identifying fraudulent companies, differences between short selling in China vs the U.S, the role of activist short selling in markets and much more. Carson Block on Twitter @muddywatersre Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 17 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Options Trading for Macro Investors | Imran Lakha

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, class is back in session with Imran Lakha as the attending professor. Going through the basics of options, Lakha turns his attentions not only to the absolute fundamentals, but to the whys and hows of options, explaining their use, what can affect them, and when and where they should not be used. Not only is this a perfunctory lesson in options but a deeper dive into their function into the economic world for beginners and masters alike of the macro trade. Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Wed, 16 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

The Bond Market Has Spoken. Should Investors Listen? | Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman

The yield curve has flattened dramatically - should investors be worried as the curve is very close to inverting? Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman are on the case. Follow Harley Bassman @ConvexityMaven Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow @Blockworks_ Bassman's most recent piece: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Convexity-Maven-Dangerous-Curves-Ahead.pdf Wang's most recent piece: https://fedguy.com/breaking-the-system/
Sun, 13 Mar 2022 11:00:00 -0000

Fed Faces "Debt Death Spiral" While Inflation Soars | Luke Gromen & Jim Bianco

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Luke Gromen, Founder of FFTT to discuss the situation the Fed finds itself in the face of the highest inflation in 40 years. With a debt to GDP over 100%, is the Fed trapped and inflation the only way out? Luke discusses the post 1971 Nixon shock's effect on the Dollar and walks us through the series of events which led to the Fed now being faced with, a "debt death spiral". Jim explains how inflation is President Biden's biggest problem and what this means for rate hikes ahead of FOMC. Are there signs of a recession in the U.S economy as commodities soar, the 2s 10s yield curve spread tightens & OIS spreads turn negative? Jim & Luke provide an absolute macro power hour you CAN'T afford to miss. To hear their thoughts on commodities, stress in the treasury market, effect of Russia & Ukraine conflict, sanctions speeding up the trend of de-dollarization & the death of globilazation, you're just going to have to tune in to find out. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 10 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Gold to $10,000 in The Big Reset | Willem Middelkoop

Willem Middelkoop, Founder & Chief Investment Officer of the Dutch-based Commodity Discovery Fund joins Forward Guidance to asses the macro forces driving commodity markets. What effect will war in Ukraine have on wheat, natural gas & oil prices around the globe? Willem goes on to discuss his book from 2014 titled 'The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame' and how current events are shaping a monetary reset. Willem also describes the famous 1971 Nixon shock, what a gold revaluation would look like, how sanctions could effect commodity markets, the roadmap to a $1 Million Bitcoin & how investors can navigate these volatile markets. _ Willem Middelkoop on Twitter @wmiddelkoop Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Tue, 08 Mar 2022 23:05:00 -0000

Does The Fed Control The Dollar? | Jeff Snider & Joseph Wang

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Jeff Snider to discuss the Fed's control of the dollar and recent news surrounding the dollar's weight and worth. Follow Jeff Snider @JeffSnider_AIP Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 06 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcome Juliette Declercq to a thorough investigation into what's driving our economy and how it gets hurt. With her expertise and personal knowledge of the situation, Juliette and Jack analyse the market, looking at specific commodities and tracking trends showing up in our everyday. -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Fri, 04 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Kharkiv Under Siege Yet Russian Oil Still Flows | Jacob Shapiro

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the latest news and finds regarding the turmoil between Russia and Ukraine. Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 03 Mar 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Central Bank Of Russia Is On The Defensive with Joseph Wang & Frances Coppola

Frances Coppola and Joseph Wang break down the true implications and mechanics of sanctions against Russia. Key learnings include: 1) SWIFT isn't a payment rail, it's a messaging system. 2) The sanctions on Russian commercial banks don't go into effect until March 26 and contain many loopholes 3) The sanctions on the Russia's Central Bank were declared by governments but *require* action from Fed + ECB 4) The U.S. Treasury provided Russian commercial banks with a diagram teaching them how to circumvent its own policy Follow Frances Coppola @Frances_Coppola Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 16:00:00 -0000

How Passive HODL-ing Of Stocks Leads to Extreme Crashes | Mike Green

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the market turmoil that has caught investors off guard so early on in 2022. Green tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rotation from growth stocks to the so-called inflation-trades (energy, industrial, and commodity stocks, for example), might have gotten ahead of itself. Green examines the mechanics of how passive flows distort price discovery and cause tendencies for the market to drift steadily higher while also raising the risk of extreme downward price movements. He explains how options overlays can take advantage of this environment and discusses his decision to bring those products to investors in an ETF wrapper. Green also discusses Simplifys new credit hedge ETFs, AGGH and CDX. Green argues that inflation will relent soon, and that the future rate hikes priced into the bond market likely overstate how far the Federal Reserve will actually raise rates. Mike Green on Twitter @profplum99 Simplify on Twitter @SimplifyETFs Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ __ BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://www.bcbgroup.com/jack __ Two papers Green discusses: Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967 Lasse Heje Pedersen, Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2849071 _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 24 Feb 2022 22:22:00 -0000

Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine with Jacob Shapiro

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the impact of Russia's latest moves involving Ukraine. Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Wed, 23 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Russia/Ukraine Crisis To Cause Commodity Doom Loop | Jacob Shapiro

*AUDIO DISCLAIMER: Mic issue during the recording led to some high levels on Jack's end. We're aware, and we're sorry! Might want to tap the volume down a couple notches for this one. Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Forward Guidance to break down the rapidly escalating hostility between Russia and Ukraine. Shapiro puts in context including Russias recognition of Luhansk and Donestk as independent sovereign republics and the punitive sanctions on Russia. Shapiro tells Jack Farley that, if Russian tanks roll down the tanks of Kiev, the West might cut Russia off from the payment rails for global commerce, SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). If Russia were unable to sell its natural gas, wheat, and other commodities in Western markets, Shapiro continues, there could be a commodity doom loop that would cause prices to skyrocket. Shapiro also shares his outlook on China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Iran. Shapiro also serves as chief strategist at Perch Perspectives and the Geopolitics editor at Lykeion. This interview was recorded on Tuesday, February 22, at 10 am Eastern Time. Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Sun, 20 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Why Inflation Will Dissipate | Bilal Hafeez

Bilal Hafeez joins Jack Farley to discuss and analyse the differences between Europe and the United States on this episode of Forward Guidance. Not only does he lay out the departing events and patterns that distinct each region, but also explore other countries, like China and Brazil. Along with that, Hafeez also outlines his crypto views, experience during the last two years, and what he sees going forward for crypto. Follow Bilal Hafeez @bilalhafeez123 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 17 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Tom Thornton

Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, brings his expertise in trading, timing, and technicals to Forward Guidance. Thornton shares with Jack Farley the serious risks he sees to the stock market, such as the end of quantitative easing (QE), coordinated central bank rate hikes, widening spreads, inverted yield curves, and, perhaps most importantly, the highest inflation in 40 years. Tommy Thorntons Twitter: @TommyThornton Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Tue, 15 Feb 2022 21:00:14 -0000

Bank of Japan Re-embraces Yield Curve Control | Roundup

Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) tackle the latest in central banking news, from the the Bank of Japans (8301.T) announcement that it would pin Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at 25 basis points, to the massively-overhyped emergency Fed meeting on Monday, to St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullards comments that the Federal Reserves credibility is on the line. Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Sun, 13 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Fed Won't Get their Soft Landing | Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Jack Farley to share in-depth his framework for understanding the new interplay of inflation, the Fed, and asset prices in 2022. Bianco argues that the mounting pressures on central banks to tame inflation mean that they are far less worried about maintaining asset prices. Bianco and Farley also discuss DeFi as a threat to the traditional banking industry and the profound economic and social consequences of the rise of work-from-home. Filmed on February 9, 2022. Follow Jim Bianco @biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack. _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 10 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Financial Meltdown: The Trades Of March 2020 | Alex Gurevich

Alex Gurevich, CIO of Honte Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his learnings from running a large macro hedge fund during the gut-wrenching volatility of March 2020. Using time-date transcripts and charts from his new book, The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty, Gurevich tells of the epic mispricings and gut-wrenching drawdowns that sent shockwaves through the global financial world. Gurevich provides insight on institutional macro products such as Eurodollar options, oil futures, currency swaps, and much more. Gurevich looks forward and tells Farley his current outlook on Fed Fund Futures, long-term bonds, as well as risk-assets (beta) such as equities and commodities. Alex Gurevich on Twitter: @agurevich23 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Tue, 08 Feb 2022 21:00:00 -0000

European Bonds Throw A Tantrum | Joseph Wang

Co-hosts Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) break down the surge in European bonds in response to the hawkish shift of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB). Wang explains his most recent post on the damage that rate hikes inflict onto holders of fixed-income instruments, and the two explore the significance and consequences of a globally coordinated effort by central banks to stop inflation in its tracks. Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Wangs most recent article on Quantitative hikes: https://fedguy.com/quantitative-hikes/ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Sun, 06 Feb 2022 17:00:00 -0000

The Next Big Short: The Debt Supercycle | Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins

Porter Collins and Vincent Daniels were some of the last investors to bet against the Federal Reserve and win. Over 13 years after the events of The Big Short, they reflect on the past decade wherein the Federal Reserve tamed asset price volatility by keeping short-term rates very low and steadily expanding their balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE). Learning from this lesson, Daniels and Collins explains how Seawolf Capital largely avoided shorting stocks during 2021 because the Fed had the markets back. Now that high inflation has forced the Feds hand to tighten monetary policy, Daniels and Collins think that 2022 will be an excellent year for short-selling, and that in particular the most vulnerable stocks are unprofitable growth companies that saw enormous price appreciation in 2020 and 2021. The pair explain why they remain bullish on nuclear energy, the cannabis industry, as well as stocks in the shipping and energy sector. Follow Porter Collins @Seawolfcap Follow Vincent Daniels @VD718 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europes leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the worlds largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCBs clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCBs BLINC network is the European crypto industrys first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Thu, 03 Feb 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Fed Doesn't Care About Your Feelings | Liz Young

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley sits down with Liz Young for a market 101 breakdown. Not only does Liz investigate some of the broader market trends, but narrows focus to explain how human behaviour, current events, and the Fed's mechanisms have all culminated in what we see today.
Tue, 01 Feb 2022 21:01:58 -0000

Will The Dollars Rise Crush Central Banks Plans?

Jack Farley welcomes back former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (Fed Guy), to analyze an action-packed week in which global central banks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Central Bank of Brazil, and the European Central Bank (ECB) release their plans for forthcoming monetary policy. Wang explains why a continued rise in the U.S. Dollar relative to other fiat currencies would likely force other central banks to tighten at a rate they deem to be too fast. Farley fields questions from the audience regarding balance sheet run-off and pace of rate hikes, and he poses to Wang the eternal questions: are reserves money? Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Sun, 30 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis | Russell Napier

Russell Napier of Orlock Advisors joins Jack Farley to share lessons from his experience as an financial analyst in Hong Kong during the Asian Financial Crisis. Napier notes that during the bull market in Asian equities of the first half of the 1990s, analysts attributed the boom to the high rates of economic growth in much of Asia. However, Napier tells Farley that the true cause of the dramatic bull market was the multitude of pegged exchange rates that did not allow Asian currencies to strengthen as foreign capital flowed in, boosting liquidity conditions. However, once the tide of foreign capital reversed course, the Asian miracle became a nightmare. Napier is the author of The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-98: Birth of the Age of Debt. https://www.libraryofmistakes.com/ Library of Mistakes Twitter: @EdinburghLoM Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 28 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Has the Fed Abandoned Risk Assets? | Joseph Wang

Jack Farley welcomes former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (Fed Guy) for a new show devoted to all things central banking. The two analyze the most recent FOMC meeting, after which Fed Chair Powell on January 26, indicated that the strong labor market and high inflation prints were leading the Feds FOMC members to contemplate removing monetary accommodation with more speed and vigor than previously anticipated. Wang and Farley discuss the spike in Fed Funds Futures, quantitative tightening (QTs) impact on the market, as well as the striking request of Chinas leader, Xi Jinping, that the Federal Reserve not raise rates. Joseph Wangs writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 25 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Upcoming Risks for Stocks and Bitcoin | Lyn Alden

Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to give a much-needed update on her macro views as equity and crypto markets encounter intense selling pressure. Alden argues that stubbornly high inflation will cause rotation from growth stocks to value stocks to continue. However, Alden argues that shes more likely to buy than short beleaguered hypergrowth names (think $ARKK) - instead she sees the greatest weakness in the mega-cap FAANG names, which she compares to the Nifty Fifty stocks, a basket of blue-chip equities that seemed impregnable in the 1960s but ultimately fared poorly in the later inflationary decade of the 1970s. But its not the 1970s, where interest rates rose to meet inflation, that reminds Alden the most of our current era; instead it is the 1940s, where policies such as yield curve control ensured that bond yields remained well below levels of inflation. Alden argues that in this environment of sustained negative real interest rates, commodities will perform very well, and in particular commodities of fixed supply like gold and Bitcoin. Lyn Alden on Twitter: @LynAldenContact Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_ Lyn Aldens investment analysis can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/. If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter.
Fri, 21 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Inflation or Recession - Which Will the Fed Choose? } Jared Dillian

Is the Federal Reserve stuck between a rock and a hard place? Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap argues that the monetary tightening needed to tame inflation will inflict serious damage to the economic recovery, to the point that the Fed essentially has a choice between secular inflation and severe recession. Which door will the Fed choose? Dillian is inclined to believe that the Fed will attempt to chart a middle path between both options that will actually result in the dreaded stagflation - where inflation continues to rise while economic growth slows down. Dillian tells Forward Guidance host Jack Farley why he thinks the ongoing rotation from growth stocks to value stocks will continue, and why he in particular is interesting in buying the shares of big and ugly companies. Dillian also shares his views on crypto, gold, and bonds. Dillian on Twitter: @dailydirtnap Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 18 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Stock & Crypto Options Have Exploded - Whats Next? | Imran Lakha & Ming Zhao

Imran Lakha and Ming Zhao join Jack Farley to make sense of how the proliferation of options has changed the investing landscape in tradfi and crypto. After discussing the role of memestocks like GameStop and AMC, as well as structural vol selling call overwriting, Lakha and Zhao share the dos and donts of buying and selling options, such as why investors should never exercise options, and how investors should think about whether implied volatility is rich or cheap. Lakha and Zhao also catalog the explosion of crypto options, both via centralized exchanges such as Deribit as well as the emergence of DeFi Options Vaults (DOVs). Zhao on Twitter: @FabiusMercurius Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 14 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Powell Put Won't Save Stocks | Joseph Wang

In this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack once again sits down with former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang, more commonly known by his moniker Fed Guy. In the interview, the two go deep into the leadership, policy, and future of the Federal Reserve, as well as look at how textbook concepts such as the Fed controlling inflation through the federal funds rate are outdated at best. Joseph takes his years of experience and impressive knowledge of modern financial systems to critique how central banks run the economies of today. Jack and Joseph question if the Fed is on the right path to end inflation and if the current regime even knows how to combat the problems of an economy overheated by fiscal stimulus. Dont miss this important and thought-provoking interview. Joseph Wangs writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wangs Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Wed, 12 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Can Earning Season Save Growth Stocks? | Sam Burns

In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley sits down with Sam Burns, the founder and chief strategist of Mill Street Research. In addition to general macro trends in the economic and financial world, Sam and Jack discuss Sams MAER model (Monitor of Analyst Earning Revisions), which uses the insight of market analysts to judge how the markets will move. Using the research of analysts, Sam is able to buck the predictions of the crowd and come to his own well-formulated conclusions on markets. Jack and Sam delve into complexity sometimes required to grasp todays difficult-to-understand swings in finance. The two question and rethink traditional narratives within finance in this high-level discussion. Dont miss this talk with a heterodox thinker in the financial industry. Mill Street Research on Twitter: @MillStResearch Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 07 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

The Crisis Brewing in Energy Markets | Tracy Shuchart

In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley and guest Tracy Shuchart discuss the tumultuous past two years of the energy market. Since 2020, the markets for oil and natural gas have hit historic points, most famously when the futures price of oil went negative in April of 2020. Tracy gives expert insight into how the energy sectors adaptation to massive shocks in demand, production, and financial credibility have affected the price of oil in the spot market and the futures market. The interview delves not only into the superficial price movements of the recent past, but into powerful decision makers such as OPEC as well. Additionally, Tracy and Jack look at exogenous factors causing price movements, such as a move towards green energy and recent geopolitical tensions in Europe and Central Asia. The conversation delves into the current reality of the energy market, as well as its potential future. Hedge Fund Telemetry: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/author/tracy-shuchart/ Tracy Shuchart on Twitter: @chigrl Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 04 Jan 2022 12:00:00 -0000

Theres A Bubble in The Inflation Narrative | Darius Dale

Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for 2022. Dale explains why his business cycle framework, which tracks the rate of change in growth and inflation in order to forecast and risk manage asset allocation, is signaling that the bloom may be off the rose for high-beta assets such as speculative growth darlings, crypto-assets SPACs, as well as reflationary stocks in the materials and energy space. Because the rate of change of economic growth is falling, Dale expects safer assets like mega-cap tech (FAANG) and long-term government bonds to outperform on a relative basis. Dale notes that his framework is probabilistic in nature, not deterministic, and he argues that investors are better served by weighing the likelihood of relative outcomes rather than looking into their crystal ball for certain outcomes. Dale also cautions against becoming wedded to narratives that promise assured outcomes. 42Macro website: https://42macro.com/ Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Fri, 31 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000

Bitcoin & Gold During Monetary Climate Change | Ronnie Stoeferle

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jack welcomes Ronnie Stoeferle, partner at Incrementum AG. Stoeferle argues that the world is already in a new inflationary era that he calls monetary climate change. Stoeferle discusses key features of a debt-based monetary system (50 years and counting) and predicts that the merging of fiscal and monetary policy will create a shift from asset price inflation to consumer price inflation. Stoeferle shares why he believes gold and Bitcoin will do very will in this new monetary environment, and he elaborates on several key drives of the prices of both of these non-inflatable assets. Incrementum's website: https://www.incrementum.li/en/ Ronnie Stoeferles Twitter: @RonStoeferle Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Tue, 28 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000

The Hidden Risks of Passive Investing | Steven Bregman

The rise of indexation has given many investors a cheap and straightforward way to access the stock market. But now that over half of all investing dollars are allocated to passive strategies, is the dominance of passive investing creating market distortions in ways that meaningfully alter share prices? Steven Bregman, president and co-founder of Horizon Kinetics, has been tracking the consequences of passive indexations rapid rise, and on this sixteenth episode of Forward Guidance, he shares with viewers his findings. Bregman explains key factors such as the crowding-out effect and hidden illiquidity that can explain the drastic outperformance of equity giants such as Apple, Microsoft, and other mega-cap stocks ($NVDA, $TSLA, $FB, etc.) that now comprise nearly half of the S&P 500.Bregman argues that the S&P 500 in 2021 is no longer a diversified basket of stocks as it was 30 years ago, because so many out-of-favor stocks such as oil drillers, gold miners, and other businesses that benefit from bouts of inflation (such as the one right now) have been crowded-out of the index. At the end of this nearly two-hour masterclass in passive investing, Bregman reveals a formula that he argues is guaranteed to beat the S&P 500: select for the smart penny. Horizon Kinetics website:https://horizonkinetics.com/ Jacks prior interview with James Davolos, Portfolio Manager of the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bVpJ58FhFc About $INFL:https://horizonkinetics.com/products/etf/infl/ Horizon Kinetics Twitter handle: @HorizonKinetics Jack Farleys Twitter handle: @JackFarley96
Fri, 24 Dec 2021 12:00:00 -0000

Former Fed Trader: Rate Hikes Will Crash Markets | Joseph Wang

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang, renowned former Fed trader, shares his views and observations on our macro world. Not only does he explain concepts like quantitative easing, but he also goes over the disparate affects of various market conditions-- from the Fed's accelerated taper, to the outcome of rate hikes. Wang's views and discussions on both the past but future long-term are not to be missed!
Tue, 21 Dec 2021 15:14:04 -0000

Felix Zulaufs Big Calls For 2022 And Beyond

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor known for his uncanny market timing, shares his outlook on various time horizons about stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf explains why the reflationary types of trades might continue to sell-off over the near-term as economic conditions worsen, however restored liquidity conditions might in the second half of 2022 breathe new life in stocks and commodities. Zulauf shares his longer-term analysis on gold and currencies, and tells Jack Farley why he thinks that bond yields are in the process of bottoming.
Fri, 17 Dec 2021 14:00:00 -0000

The Bull Market In Crap Is Over | Kevin Muir

Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares: Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls crap) will likely continue How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocks
Tue, 14 Dec 2021 14:00:00 -0000

Are Bonds Pricing in a Market Crash? | Alfonso Peccatiello

Todays guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass. Alfonso shares with Blockworks Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss: - the global credit impulse turning negative - long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt) - why quantitative easing (QE) isnt inflationary Alfonso Peccatiellos Twitter: @MacroAlf Jack Farleys Twitter:@JackFarley96 Alfonso Peccatiellos newsletter, The Macro Compass:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Article on quantitative easing:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printing Article on 2022 outlook:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio
Fri, 10 Dec 2021 16:30:00 -0000

Inflation Is Not Transitory, And Neither Is The Bear Market In Atrocious Companies | Harris Kupperman

With fund managers keen to lock in gains from a lucrative year, the pain trade is here, says Harris Kuppy Kupperman. Moreover, pie-in-the-sky technology companies are falling back to earth, threatening to bring the entire market down with them. Yet Kuppy remains bullish on risk assets because in his Project Zimbabwe framework wherein inflation runs rampant as central banks remain hopelessly behind the curve, going long is the way to go. Kuppy argues that oil futures are the assets that will benefit most from inflation because ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates will depress supply. Kuppy, the publisher of Kuppys Event Driven Monitor (KEDM), also shares several idiosyncratic trades ranging from Uranium to paper. Kuppy and Blockworks Jack Farley also discuss China, Robinhood, and United States Oil ETF ($USO).
Tue, 07 Dec 2021 22:32:23 -0000

A Little Bitcoin Goes a Long Way | James Butterfill

The emergence of crypto funds and exchange traded products (ETPs) has changed the game - but just how much capital is flowing into crypto via these channels? James Butterfill, Investment Strategist at CoinShares, joins Jack Farley to shed light on the crypto fund flows that are serving as onramps for many institutional investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Solana and Polkadot.
Fri, 03 Dec 2021 19:12:35 -0000

The Unintended Consequences of Central Banks' Easy Money | William White

Listeners of the Forward Guidance podcast are in for a real treat today. Jack interviews noted economist and former central banker Dr. William White, who served on the front lines of monetary policy for over half a decade. White, a stern critic of the easy money policy that preceded the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, argues that ultra-low interest rates threatens financial stability and creates a bevy of unintended consequences such as flash crashes, overvalued asset prices, and abrupt illiquidity. Dr. White shares his views on whether the U.S dollars status as the worlds reserve currency is sustainable, and why bond yields remain low in face of the red-hot inflation that has descended on so many countries. Lastly, Dr. White makes the case that these economic woes are but one of the major four challenges world faces, with the other three "Four Horsemen" being in the spheres of politics, public health, and the environment.
Tue, 30 Nov 2021 14:30:00 -0000

Investment Strategies to PROFIT From Inflation (Not Just Hedge) | James Davolos

With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal? On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that inflation will increase the value of scalable, economically resilient business models with exposure to hard assets, and he shares several examples, ranging from gold royalty companies and financial exchanges to timber companies and agricultural processing firms.
Fri, 26 Nov 2021 18:52:32 -0000

The Dollar Rises With Crypto And Gold - What Gives? | Michael Nicoletos at DAS: London

When Jack Farley ran into macro investor Michael Nicoletos at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in London, he knew the two had to film an interview. Nicoletos shares his thoughts on cryptos role within a macro portfolio, why the U.S. dollar is rising against other currencies, and why the 40-year bull market in bonds might not yet be over. Nicoletos argues that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will eventually replace stablecoins as an onramp to crypto, and argues that China economic woes are very serious. Blockworks next crypto event in May 2021:https://blockworks.co/events/permissionless/ Jack Farleys Twitter: @JackFarley96 Michael Nicoletos Twitter: @mnicoletos
Tue, 23 Nov 2021 12:00:00 -0000

The Psychological Toll of Inflation | Vincent Deluard

We're heading for an inflationary decade that will change society as we know it. That's according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc,who argues inflation is not transitory as many insist but rather a feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks' Jack Farley 5 reasons why high prices are no longer the cure to high prices, including today's tight labor market, the flurry of post-Covid spending packages, and China's withdrawal from its role as an exporter of deflation. Deluard argues that inflation itself is inflationary; while soaring commodity prices, supply chains bottlenecks, and excessive stimulus are undoubtedly the immediate drivers of the current spike in prices, the fundamental driver of secular inflation is an insidious increase in our collective preference for the present.
Fri, 19 Nov 2021 12:00:00 -0000

How To Spot Overvalued Companies | Tobias Carlisle

Tobias Carlisle, Portfolio Manager at Acquirers Funds, joins Jack Farley on this sixth episode of Forward Guidance to explain why he believes quality companies are being serially undervalued. Carlisle argues that the equity market assigns far too high of a value on fast-growing stocks, and far too-little of a value on companies whose revenues are growing slowly but whose return on capital is very high and whose balance sheets are pristine. Carlisle shares with Farley the methodology and structure of of his value funds, The Acquirers Fund ($ZIG) and the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value ETF ($DEEP), and he shares his vision for the future of value investing.
Fri, 12 Nov 2021 11:55:00 -0000

Is Inflation Overhyped? | Eric Basmajian

Is the 40-year era of falling bond yields and low inflation coming to an end? That is the question investors have been asking themselves for months, and now that October's CPI reading hit its highest level since 1991, it is a query that can no longer be avoided. Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research is confident that all this anxiety is unnecessary. On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Basmajian tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rate of inflation will soon relent, and why he thinks the bull market in bonds is nowhere close to over. Pointing to the fall in economic growth rates as measured by industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income, Basmajian argues that an overweight allocation to Treasury bonds will protect investors from a slowdown in growth, as can be seen by the rolling over of coincident factors such as industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income. Basmajian explores particularly explosive parts of the Consumer Price Index like durable goods and rent, and he explains his long-term view that aging populations will ensure low bond yields in the United States just as they did in Europe and Japan. Basmajian's article on demographics: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/the-global-demographic-vortex Basmajian's article on rent inflation: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/are-you-worried-about-rent-inflation The Dallas Fed's paper on rent inflation: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0824
Fri, 05 Nov 2021 11:00:00 -0000

Deconstructing Macro Narratives About Inflation, Bonds, and Bitcoin | Huw Roberts, Quant Insight

The world of macro investing is full of narratives: that a rising dollar threatens emerging market stocks and commodity prices; that rising bond yields imperil growth stocks but buoy value stocks; and that inflation is bad for Tesla, good for gold, and great for Bitcoin. There is more than a grain of truth to these mantras, but they miss the complex interplay of macro variables. On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley investigates these sacred cows of macro to see if they are a little shaky on their legs in a man vs. machine conversation with Huw Roberts, head of analytics at Quant Insight.
Tue, 02 Nov 2021 11:00:00 -0000

Hunting for Hidden Financial Risks | Stephen Clapham

Do balance sheets matter? Do cash flows matter? In a world where asset prices are driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, the answer can seem to be yes. But since this environment gives companies license to embroider their finances, the ability to spot their accounting sleight-of-hand is of immense value to investors. Today on the third episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes Stephen Clapham, forensic accountant and founder of Behind the Balance Sheet. Clapham shows the most common instances of financial legerdemain and gives in depth analysis of companies such as Tesla, Ferrari, and The Hut Group.
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 12:59:46 -0000

The Global Energy Crisis, Explained | Warren Pies

The world faces an energy crisis that threatens to stop the economic recovery in its tracks. On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Jack Farley to explain the root causes of soaring prices of oil and natural gas. Pies argues that the world is entering a regime of secular inflation that will have profound implications for investors, such as turning the correlation between stocks and bonds from negative to positive. Pies shares his views on real assets and explains why he thinks Bitcoin will likely continue to outperform gold at least over the short-term. PIes challenges mainstream narratives about Bitcoin such as the stock-to-flow model as well its being uncorrelated with other risk assets.
Wed, 27 Oct 2021 16:09:47 -0000

The Unwinding of the Long Term Debt Cycle | Lyn Alden

Forward Guidance is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, Jack Farley will be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday. Today's show is with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Lyn will be sharing why she thinks the global financial system is nearing the apogee of a long-term debt cycle, and the only way to unwind the leverage without causing ruinous economic data is through persistently higher inflation and a significantly weaker U.S. Dollar. Alden also shares her views on surging energy costs, Chinas stock market woes, and the flurry of new Bitcoin ETFs that have come to market recently.

Motley Fool Money

Mon, 25 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The Business of Nightclubs

RCI Hospitality CEO Eric Langan on consumer spending, capital allocation, and getting into the casino business.

(00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- The wisdom Amazons bet on Anthropic.
- Why Amazon is getting into charging for streaming.
- If check-out-free technology is finally reaching its tipping point.

(12:25) Ricky Mulvey interviews the CEO of RCI Hospitality, Eric Langan on his view on consumer spending, capital allocation, and his journey to the CEO seat.

Companies discussed: AMZN, WMT, DIS, RICK

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Ricky Mulvey, Eric Langan, Jason Moser
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 24 Sep 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Containing Big Tech

When your information is everywhere, is it possible to rein it back in?

Deidre Woollard caught up with Tom Kemp, a cybersecurity expert and author of Containing Big Tech: How to Protect our Civil Rights, Economy, and Democracy. They discuss:
- The implications of biometric data collection in a world where big tech runs rampant
- Which companies are getting the privacy game right (and wrong)
- Angel investing, and workarounds to weak links in existing cybersecurity systems

Tickers discussed: META, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, MSFT

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Tom Kemp
Producer: Mary Long
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers


Sat, 23 Sep 2023 16:01:00 +0000

CEO Shake-Ups

Executives are on the move. The first half of 2023 has seen the highest CEO turnover rate on record, per executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray, & Christmas.

Deidre Woollard caught up with Anand Chokkavelu and Ricky Mulvey to talk about what it means when a leader leaves. They discuss:

Tickers discussed: PYPL, DOCN, SBUX, DIS, AZO, COST, FOX, NWS, KHC, CMG, PINS, ILMN, ETSY, PTON, FL, ULTA, WBA, PLNT

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Anand Chokkavelu, Ricky Mulvey
Producer: Mary Long
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 22 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The Office Space Depression

Office real estate appraisals are seeing haircuts worse than the depths of the great financial crisis.

(00:21) Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- The Fed walking its talk and maintaining the expectation of another rate hike.
- How office real estate is showing signs of trouble, but shouldnt be weighing down all REITs.
- The latest on UAW, WGA, SAG-AFTRA strikes and one metric that shows the gap between company results and worker pay.

(19:11) Justin Hotard, Heads up Hewlett Packard Enterprise's High Performance Computing & Artificial Intelligence segments breaks down misconceptions around artificial intelligence, and the best ways you can start learning more and understanding the AI future.

(33:22) Ron and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Fairfax Financial and Nike..

Stocks discussed: WPC, FDX, GIS, NFLX, WBD, F, GM, FRFHF, NKE,

Pullback stocks report info about the 5 stocks and joining Stock Advisor available at Fool.com/Pullback. Existing Motley Fool premium members can access the report here.

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Ron Gross, Matt Argersinger, Sanmeet Deo, Justin Hotard
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Thu, 21 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Powell Stays Put, For Now

Interest rates are paused but the hikes may not be over yet.

(00:21) Bill Mann and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- What metrics the Fed is looking at before its next meeting.
- How FedExs business has evolved over time.
- The traits a good chief financial officer should have.

(14:52) Tom King and Deidre Woollard explore how TransMedics is building a complete organ transplantation supply chain.

Companies discussed: FDX, UPS, TMDX

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Bill Mann, Tom King
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 20 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Good Discipline From IPOs and Investors

Theres plenty to learn from the Instacart and Klaviyo IPOs, even if youre staying away from the stocks themselves.

(00:21) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- The markets reaction to Instacarts IPO and whether the company can return to its lofty private valuations.
- An under-the-radar IPO this week Klaviyo, and why its worth studying to understand the data relationships between businesses and their customers.

(20:39) Deidre Woollard gets the inside scoop on peak performance and corporate training from consultant and author Greg Harden.

You can grab your copy of 5 Stocks Under $49 for free and Fool.com/Report.

Companies discussed: CART, ARM, NDAQ, KVYO, BRZE

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Deidre Woollard, Greg Harden
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers


Tue, 19 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Three Strikes

The United Auto Workers are taking on the entire Big Three at once for the first time ever. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma discuss:
- How investors can measure an automakers profits.
- A long-term problem for legacy carmakers.
- The impact of the strike on Tesla.
- Digital payments adoption in India.

Plus, (15:22) Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick talk about planning dream vacations before retirement and why you shouldnt wait.

Companies discussed: F, GM, STLA, TSLA, PYPL

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick
Producer: Mary Long
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 18 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The Battle For Breakfast

Kelloggs is spinning off its core cereal business to focus on the fast-growing snacks market.

(00:11) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Why Kelloggs is splitting up its business.
- If snacks still have growth potential.
- Monsters ability to become a 100-year brand.

(13:35) Ricky Mulvey and John Nash analyze newly-listed TKO Holdings, the company that runs both WWE and UFC, and address the challenges it may face in the future.

Companies discussed: K, TKO, MNST, CELH

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, John Nash
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl


Sun, 17 Sep 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Number Go Up

Id pull back the curtain and there was nothing there.


The hype of crypto was real. Many of the use cases are still to be determined. Deidre Woollard caught up with Zeke Faux, an investigative reporter for Bloomberg and the author of Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall. They discuss:

- Why investors are quick to throw belief out the window
- What really happens at an NFT party with Snoop Dogg, Eminem, and Jimmy Fallon
- Questions around stablecoins, and one company quilted out of red flags
- What happens when you spend a book advance on a JPEG image

Tickers discussed: USDT

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Zeke Faux
Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Annie Pope


Sat, 16 Sep 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Back-to-School Stocks

Kids are expensive. Consumers are estimated to spend more than $100 billion on back-to-school shopping this year, according to the National Retail Federation.

Deidre Woollard, Mary Long, and Ricky Mulvey got together to talk about companies that could ride the tailwinds of back-to-school season. They discuss:


Tickers discussed: MBG.DE, TSLA, META, GOOGL, UBER, LYFT, SPOT, AAPL, PYPL, DKS, TGT, SNAP, ELF, CMG, CHGG

Host: Mary Long
Guest: Deidre Woollard, Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Fri, 15 Sep 2023 20:21:00 +0000

A 1700s Cobbler Is Going Public

We break down two IPOs on todays show, one for your phone and one for your toes.

(00:38) Jason Moser and Bill Mann discuss:
- How oil at $90 is and isnt an inflationary pressure.
- What to make of Apples latest iPhone release.
- The scoop on two new IPOs Arm Holdings and Birkenstock.

(19:02) Ben Mezrich talks about the origin story of the meme stock and his book-turned-movie Dumb Money, in theaters this weekend.

(31:38) Jason and Bill break down two stocks on their radar: PayPal and Schwab.

Stocks discussed: DAL, AAL, AAPL, ARM, BIRK, PYPL, SCHW

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Jason Moser, Bill Mann, Ben Mezrich
Producer: Mary Long
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Thu, 14 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Deadline In Detroit

Its the week of the big auto show in Detroit but industry watchers are more focused on a potential strike than the vehicles.

(00:26) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- The demands of the United Auto Workers.
- The fading allure of auto shows.
- If vehicles will just keep getting bigger.

(17:02) Ricky Mulvey and Deidre Woollard ponder the return to office and if things in our working lives will ever be the same again.

Companies discussed: F, GM, TSLA, STLA, WE, META, AMZN

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Bill Barker, Ricky Mulvey
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Wed, 13 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Apple's Compounding iPhone Iteration

Apples iPhone development might seem iterative by year, but over time it compounds into huge improvements and reasons to upgrade.

(00:21) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Apples fall update and the details on the iPhone 15 and 15 Plus.
- How the company is using phones to feed content for its future Vision Pro headsets.
- Why we want to be hearing more about Slack during Salesforces Dreamforce conference.

(19:31) Motley Fool analyst Bill Mann joins Ricky Mulvey to break down the fundamentals of reinsurance and one misconception about Florida's home insurance woes.

Companies discussed: AAPL, CRM, ARM, BRK.A, BRK.B, TRV

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Ricky Mulvey, Bill Mann
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd


Tue, 12 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Why IPO?

Investors are lining up to buy shares of British chip designer, Arm. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Bill Barker discuss:
- Why Arm is going public.
- Disney and Charter Communications making peace.
- How investors can break down a companys prospectus.

(15:07) Plus, Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick open the mailbag and answer your questions about 401(k)s, bonds, and asset allocation.

Companies discussed: CHTR, DIS, ARM

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Bill Barker, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 11 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Twinkies Find A New Home

The acquisition of Hostess Brands by J.M. Smucker is the latest in a series of food mergers.

(00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- The synergies between Hostess and Smucker.
- Why Instacarts valuation dropped.
- Krogers push to make the Albertsons deal happen.

(16:09) Deidre Woollard interviews Jesse Singh of home exteriors company Azek on competition in the decking space and whats next for the brand.

Companies discussed: TWNK, SJM, SOVO, AMZN, WMT, CPB, KR, AZEK

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Jesse Singh
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 10 Sep 2023 16:01:00 +0000

The Four Pillars of Investing with William Bernstein

The essence of investing is not maximizing returns, but rather maximizing odds of success.

William Bernstein is a financial theorist, neurologist, and the best-selling author of The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio, now in its second edition. Motley Fool Senior Advisor Robert Brokamp caught up with Bernstein to discuss:

- Why a 2% real return is quite spectacular
- The math and Shakespeare of investing
- Why value stocks may have fallen out of fashion
- What the history of the stock market reveals about modern bubbles

Host: Robert Brokamp
Guest: William Bernstein
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sat, 09 Sep 2023 16:01:00 +0000

Expectations Investing Part 2: General Motors to Nvidia

What does an investor have to believe for todays share price to make sense?

Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma continue their conversation about Expectations Investing, applying the framework to four companies with different growth outlooks. They discuss:

- Value drivers for a mature automaker.
- A high-growth payment processing company experiencing a narrative shift.
- If Nvidia can maintain its moat over the long-term.

Companies discussed: GM, CP, ADYEY, NVDA

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Asit Sharma
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 08 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Disneys Lost Decade and Next Act

The markets had a surprisingly strong 2023, but investors might be eying easy low-risk yields elsewhere.

Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- (00:21) How some investors might be tempted to move out of stocks given the yields elsewhere
- (9:41) The latest with Disney its standoff with Charter, plans to take full ownership of Hulu, and what investors should make of its lost decade
- (19:11) NYCs de facto ban for Airbnb, what it means for the company and says about the state of housing and short-term rentals.

(31:44) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Hershey and Masimo.

Stocks discussed: DIS, NFLX, ABNB, UBER

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 07 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Expectations Investing Part 1

How can you use a companys stock price to give you a window into the future?

(00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Reasons for skepticism when it comes to AI hype.
- How long a leash unprofitable software companies may have.
- If being located in SIlicon Valley is still an advantage for tech companies.

(18:20) Asit Sharma and Ricky Mulvey break down the basics of expectations investing and give a framework for applying it to individual companies.

Companies discussed: PATH, AI, ASAN, NVDA

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Ricky Mulvey, Bill Barker, Asit Sharma
Producer:Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 06 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Airbnb Leaves NYC, Joins S&P 500

New York City cracked down on short-term rentals, but is it a big deal for Airbnb?

(00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Jason Moser discuss:
- How restrictions on short-term rentals could impact Airbnbs growth story.
- Why investors are sour about AMCs new share issuance.
- One company managing its share count well.

Plus, (15:20) Deidre Woollard interviews Oliver Franklin-Wallis, author of Wasteland: The Dirty Truth About What We Throw Away, Where It Goes, And Why It Matters.

Companies discussed: ABNB, EXPE, AMC, LOW

Hosts: Ricky Mulvey, Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Oliver Franklin-Wallis
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Tue, 05 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Cable Takes on The Mouse

If you cant watch ESPN right now, its because one cable company is taking a stand against Disney.

(00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Jim Gillies discuss:
- Charter Communications problem with the streaming economy.
- DoorDashs battle with restaurants over pricing.
- Why investors may want to look at Canadian banks.

Plus, (17:52) Deidre Woollard and Robert Brokamp check in on the bond market, and how investors can benefit from higher rates.


Companies discussed: CHRT, DIS, DASH


Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Jim Gillies, Deidre Woollard, Robert Brokamp
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 03 Sep 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Stadium Sponsors Buy or Sell?

NFL Football is back this week, should you be keeping an eye on the companies plastered on the side of stadiums?

(00:41) Ricky Mulvey and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Why stadium sponsors generally dont outperform their peers or the market.

- When major sponsorships do and dont make sense as part of a marketing budget.

- Monster Energys brilliance in focusing on extreme sports.

Companies discussed: F, PG, PAYC, MNST, ALGT, LUMN, MET, SOFI, AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL

Host: Dylan Lewis

Guests: Ricky Mulvey

Engineers: Tim Sparks


Sat, 02 Sep 2023 16:00:00 +0000

A Homebuyer's Dilemma Might Be A Homebuilder's Delight

Existing home sales are down around 20% year over year for two reasons: mortgage rates are too high and there aren't enough homes for sale.

Matt Argersinger and Deidre Woollard discuss:

- The current situation of home sales and what could change it.

- Why homebuilders are in a good position right now.

- If renting will become permanent for more Americans and which companies might benefit.

Host: Deidre Woollard

Guest: Matt Argersinger

Producer: Ricky Mulvey

Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Companies discussed: NVR, INVH, TOL, LEN, MAA, AVB


Fri, 01 Sep 2023 21:05:00 +0000

Different Customers, Different Retail Results

The outlook for major retailers depends a lot on whether their core customers are feeling the pinch.

(00:38) Jason Moser and Bill Mann discuss:
- Troubling signs on consumer savings rates dropping and more people dipping into their 401ks.
- How the consumer crunch is affecting retailers like Dollar General, Big Lots, Five Below and Chewy..
- Why Lululemon is bucking the trend, and Salesforce is cruising despite tighter budgets in enterprise software too.

(19:06) Certified Financial Planner Matt Frankel talks about how student loan borrowers can prepare for payments to begin again in October and the new programs in place to help borrowers.
- You can find the Department of Educations website and resources here.
- And heres the White Houses fact sheet on the SAVE plan

(30:34) Jason and Bill break down two stocks on their radar: TakeTwo Interactive and Samsara.

Stocks discussed: DG, BIG, FIVE, CHWY, LULU, CRM, TTWO, IOT

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Bill MAnn, Jason Moser
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 31 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Salesforce Rights The Ship

Its been a turbulent few quarters for Salesforce but a focus on cost cuts is paying off.

(00:15) Tim Beyers and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- How Salesforce improved its margins.
- What role AI plays in Salesforces future.
- CrowdStrikes land-and-expand model for growth.

(21:12) Deidre Woollard interviews thredUP CEO James Reinhart on resale as a service and the companys plans for continued growth.

Companies discussed: CRM, CRWD, MSFT, ZS, TDUP

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Tim Beyers, James Reinhart
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Wed, 30 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Buffett Quotes Under the Microscope

We celebrate Uncle Warrens 93rd Birthday with a closer look at some of his best known isms and a look at few investments he wouldnt want any part of.

(00:12) Bill Mann and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Grayscale Bitcoin Trusts path to a Bitcoin ETF and what it means for crypto adoption.
- The largest automaker that youve never heard of Vinfast and why investors should stay away from its stock.
- 3Ms $6B settlement, and how investors should be thinking about the legal issues plaguing the company.

(15:43) Ricky Mulvey and Anand Chokkavelu celebrate Warren Buffetts birthday with a look at some of his most popular and misunderstood quotes.

Companies discussed: GBTC, VFS, MMM, BRK.A, BRK.B, AAPL

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Bill Mann, Ricky Mulvey, Anand Chokkavelu
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Tue, 29 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

"When in Doubt, Zoom Out"

Credit card debt and interest rates hit all time highs this year. (00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Bill Barker look at the implications for companies and investors. They discuss:
- Macys and Nordstrom charging 32% APRs for retail cards.
- Historical context on rising delinquencies.
- Best Buys quarter, and sales slowdown.

Plus (12:34) Robert Brokamp and Matt Frankel discuss what to do if your consumer debt is getting more expensive.

Companies discussed: BBY, M, JWN, DFS

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Bill Barker, Robert Brokamp, Matt Frankel
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 28 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Instacart Is IPO Ready

Instacart is profitable and its growing, Is that enough to spark investor interest?

(00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- How Instacart makes its money.
- What it means to be a grocery technology company.
- If a strong Instacart IPO will be go sign for the market.

(17:31) Alicia Alfiere and Deidre Woollard break down how Live Nation profits from blockbuster tours.

Companies discussed: LYV, DASH, UBER

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Alicia Alfiere
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 27 Aug 2023 17:23:00 +0000

Redfin On The Attack

Real estate is always a tough business to be in, but especially right now.

Redfin is trying to meet customers on multiple fronts from studio apartment rentals to selling $5 million homes.

Glenn Kelman has been CEO of Redfin since 2005 guiding the real estate technology company through a variety of transitions, taking the company public in 2017 and plenty of market cycles along the way.

Deidre Woollard sat down with Glenn to discuss:


- The challenges of the current real estate market.
- How Redfin plans to take share in the luxury space.
- What value two recent acquisitions have added to the business.

Companies discussed: RDFN

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Glenn Kelman
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sat, 26 Aug 2023 22:41:34 +0000

Companies Going on Offense

Most companies find success in different ways, but theres a secret sauce to ones that are leading innovators.

Behnam Tabrizi is a transformation expert and a faculty member in Stanford Universitys executive program. His book is Going on Offense: A Leaders Playbook for Perpetual Innovation. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Tabrizi to discuss:

- Tech companies with a cultural advantage.
- Why Alphabet might have a bureaucracy problem.
- Lisa Sus David and Goliath story at Advanced Micro Devices


Companies discussed: AAPL, MSFT, META, TSLA, AMD, ADBE, NVDA, AMZN, WHR

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Behnam Tabrizi
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 25 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Earnings Buzzwords: AI and Shrink

Nvidia earnings soaked up a lot of headlines, but theyre not the only one making moves in AI.

(00:21) Andy Cross and Jason Moser discuss:
- The epic hype around Nvidias earnings release, and how AI is playing into the ambitions for other companies in tech like Workday.
- Why shrink is the buzzword of the season in retail and how investors should be looking at it.
- How Williams-Sonoma and Ulta bucked tough trends in retail to put up strong numbers, and the numbers behind updates from Intuit and Autodesk.

(19:11) Olivier Pomel, CEO of DataDog, talks through the companys recent results, the promising signs hes seeing in customer spend, and why he thinks his company still has a 10X opportunity in front of it.

(33:52) Andy and Jason break down two stocks on their radar: Nike and Chewy.

Stocks discussed: NVDA, WDAY, WSM, ADSK, ULTA, INTU, DLTR, FL, NKE, CHWY

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guest: Jason Moser, Tim Beyers, Olivier Pomel, Tim Beyers
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers


Thu, 24 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Nvidia Shoots For The Stars

Just how big can Nvidia get? For CEO Jensen Huang, its to infinity and beyond.

(00:21) Tim Beyers and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Nvidias strong quarter and the cyclicality of chip demand.
- Why Nvidia isnt the only game in town for AI chips.
- How Snowflakes data warehouse solutions might grow over time.

Companies discussed: NVDA, AMD, INTC, SNOW

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Tim Beyers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 23 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Not Your Older Cousins Abercrombie

Abercrombie is back in vogue, but be careful chasing this cyclical business.

(00:21) Jason Moser and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- The reality of Pelotons seasonality, and how the company is doing with its recalls and digital ambitions.
- At all-time lows, is Peloton more interesting?
- How Abercrombies back in vogue, and what the retailer is doing to connect with consumers in a tough retail environment.

Companies discussed: PTON, ANF

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Jason Moser
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Tue, 22 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Retail Shrink Gets Bigger?

Dicks is the latest retailer to feel the pinch of shrink just remember all theft is shrink, not all shrink is theft.

(00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Zooms customer-driven approach to AI and how the companys cash hoard is showing up in its earnings.
- How a decrease in DIY is impacting Lowes results.
- Dicks management joins the ranks of retailers dealing with theft affecting results.

Companies discussed: ZM, LOW, DKS

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Asit Sharma
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Mon, 21 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Cybersecurity Is Big Business

The threats are getting bigger but so are the businesses trying to prevent them.

David Meier and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Metrics to watch in business-to-business tech companies.
- Why Palo Alto Networks reported on a Friday night.
- The growth trends for cybersecurity as a whole.

Companies discussed: ZM, PANW, ZS, CRWD

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: David Meier
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 20 Aug 2023 15:00:00 +0000

How a Scam Spreads

A good scam works like a magic trick. Theres a beautiful, complex story being sold, but the truth is disappointingly simple.

The Oman Ghana Trust Fund raised hundreds of millions of dollars. Investors hoped their money would help unlock Ghanas inheritance and billions of dollars worth of gold. Many were sold 10-to-1, even 100-to-1 returns on this promise.

Yepoka Yeebo is the author of Anansis Gold: The Man Who Looted the West, Outfoxed Washington, and Swindled the World. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Yeebo to discuss:

- How a scammer builds credibility.
- The investor biases can lead someone to be defrauded.
- How the money in the trust fund scams scheme actually disappeared.

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Yepoka Yeebo
Producer: Deidre Woollard
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sat, 19 Aug 2023 16:01:00 +0000

Stocks to Stay Cool

Air conditioners have had a busy summer. This July was the hottest recorded month since the year 1880.

Deidre Woollard and Motley Fool Senior Analyst Sanmeet Deo dive into the business of staying cool. They discuss:

- The major players and macro landscape for HVAC companies.
- Carriers transformation.
- Growth expectations for heating and cooling companies.
- One industry that is incredibly difficult to disrupt.

Companies discussed: CARR, WSO, TT, LLI, FERG

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Deidre Woolard, Sanmeet Deo
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 18 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Inside Chinas Economic Woes

A real estate bankruptcy shakes confidence in China and consumers across the globe focus on lower-priced items.

(00:21) Ron Gross and Emily Flippen discuss:
- Why the consumer focus on groceries and lower cost items are helping Walmart and hurting Target.
- The story behind Adyens 40% post-earnings drop.
- The latest results from JD.com and Tencent, and how to look at some of the scary headlines coming out of China.

(19:11) VICI CEO Ed Pitoniak speaks with Motley Fool Moneys Deidre Woollard to talk about what to expect next on the Las Vegas strip, why wellness is an increasingly interesting category for experience spending, and what good real estate deals look like in this environment.

(33:24) Ron and Emily break down two stocks on their radar: Astec and NICE.

Stocks discussed: WMT, TGT, ADYEY, JD, TCEHY, ASTE, NICE

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross, Deidre Woollard, Ed Pitoniak
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Annie Pope


Thu, 17 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Grab Your Groceries

More of us are going to Walmart, but Aldi just made a big move that has put it on the radar of Big Grocery.

Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Whether Walmart is learning from grocers or grocers are learning from Walmart.
- If an Aldi acquisition spells the end of the beloved Winn-Dixie brand.
- Why Amazon has struggled with getting grocery right.

Companies discussed: WMT, TGT, KR, ACI, AMZN

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Bill Barker
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 16 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Two Sides of Retail

Cava delivers some spicy results in its first earnings report and Target and TJX are on the opposite sides of retail trends.

(00:21) Jason Moser and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Cavas stellar first earnings report, and how store count, traffic, and prices are all pushing the company forward.
- How Target is being bitten by slowing consumer spend in high-ticket items and increased focus on essential items.
- Why TJX is happy to see inventory issues in retail and how the company continues to thrive in a tough environment.

Companies discussed: TGT, TJX, CAVA, WMT

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Jason Moser
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Tue, 15 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

2 Short 2 Furious

Michael Burry, the investor featured in The Big Short, made a major bet against market indexes. Are investors due for a sequel of the Great Financial Crisis? (00:13) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma discuss:

Companies discussed: HD, MTB Host: Ricky Mulvey


Guest: Asit Sharma
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Mon, 14 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

PayPal Finally Finds Its New Chief

PayPal finds its new leader over at Intuit; can he make this fintech shine again?

Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Dan Schulmans report card as a CEO.
- What Alex Chriss might, or might not, bring to the party.
- If a potential deal for U.S. Steel could be a winner for U.S. infrastructure.

Companies discussed: PYPL, X, CLF, INTU, META, TSLA

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Jason Moser
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sun, 13 Aug 2023 16:01:00 +0000

Revisiting Crypto and Meme Stocks

Bitcoin was supposed to be unrelated to the stock market, act as a hedge against inflation, and serve as a currency for private transactions. Maybe, its just a volatile store of value. Is that so bad?

James Surowiecki is an editor at The Yale Review, a regular contributor to The Atlantic, and author of The Wisdom of Crowds. Motley Fool co-founder and Chief Rule Breaker David Gardner caught up with Surowiecki on his podcast, Rule Breaker Investing. This show is a cut of their conversation.

They discuss:

- Lessons from Bitcoins past boom, and its place as cryptocurrencys top dog
- The correlation between crypto and tech stocks
- One company thats tied its fate to the success of Bitcoin
- Meme stocks from the lens of cash flow investing

Tickers mentioned: BTC, ETH, MSTR, GME

This episode is just part of an interview aired on the Rule Breaker Investing podcast. You can listen to the entire conversation here.

Host: Mary Long
Guests: David Gardner, James Surowiecki
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Producer: Ricky Mulvey


Sat, 12 Aug 2023 16:01:00 +0000

Mailbag: Commercial Real Estate, Personal Finance, and International Investing

Answering some of the questions youve emailed us at podcasts@fool.com. Weve also got a listener hotline! Leave us a voicemail with your question at 703-254-1445.

- (1:04) Will there be a commercial real estate collapse?
- (5:22) What happens when a company you own goes bankrupt?
- (10:41) Are there companies suited for the growing trend of hearing loss?
- (15:03) How should investors think about Teslas charging network?
- (16:14) Stocks are more expensive. Should I keep buying?
- (18:35) Are there cash-like ETFs?
- (21:20) Should I buy Universal Life Insurance?
- (23:38) Are there investing opportunities in India?
- (25:41) How do foreign exchange rates affect an investing strategy?

Companies/Tickers mentioned: TSLA, SOON, DEMANT, GN, KN, APPH, SGOV, SMIN, AMZN

Host: Mary Long
Guests: Deidre Woollard, Jason Moser, Asit Sharma, Brian Orelli, Robert Brokamp, Bill Mann, Scott Phillips
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 11 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

$1 Trillion in Credit Card Debt

The margin of safety for household spending keeps shrinking.

(00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- What the producer price index is saying about the cost of goods and services.
- Americans hitting $1 trillion in credit card debt and what it means for the health of the consumer.
- Earnings updates from Disney, UPS, and Axon.


(19:11) Motley Fool Moneys Deidre Woollard talks with Tom Larsen, a senior director at Corelogic, about extreme weathers impact on homeowners and insurers.

(28:48) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Sky Harbor and Home Depot


Stocks discussed: DIS, AXON, UPS, WE, TLRY, HD, SKYH

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser, Deidre Woollard, Tom Larsen
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 10 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

All About the Ads

Viewers may hate them, but ads are the future everywhere we go online. For investors that might be a good thing.

Tim Beyers and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- If Disneys price increases will push subscribers to the ad tier.
- Just how popular sports betting might be.
- The Trade Desks role in the world outside of advertisings walled gardens.

Companies discussed: TTD, DIS, NFLX, PENN

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Tim Beyers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Wed, 09 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Follow the Cash: Celsius, Chegg, Nelnet

Earnings from Chegg, Celsius, and Nelnet show why it pays to watch cash flow and how businesses can shore up when theres cash on hand.

(00:21) Jim Gillies and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Celsius incredible top and bottom line results, but why investors should pay attention to the energy drink makers relationship with Pepsi and accounts receivable.
- Whether Chegg can harness AI for its education offerings.
- Why Nelnets slow and steady Berkshire approach continues to pay off.

Companies discussed: CHGG, NNI, CELH

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Jim Gillies
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Tue, 08 Aug 2023 20:39:00 +0000

Eli Lilly's Optimism

By one count, a drugmaker founded in 1876 is a more expensive stock than Tesla. (Time Stamp)

Ricky Mulvey and Bill Barker discuss:
- Teslas CFO departure.
- Eli Lilly hitting an all-time high, and the drugmakers optimistic results.
- How Burger King is driving sales growth with limited time offers.
- Zoom calling its employees back to the office.

Companies discussed: TSLA, LLA, NVO, QSR, ZM

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Bill Barker
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Mon, 07 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Berkshire Is Back

Berkshire Hathaway bounced back from a recent loss with strong net income and billions in cash waiting for action.

Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- The value of solid insurance underwriting.
- Why Berkshire sees a future in catering to truck drivers.
- Finding the secret sauce in consumer businesses.

Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, KHC, CPB, SOVO, SRG, KO, KNSL

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Jason Moser
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sun, 06 Aug 2023 16:01:00 +0000

Fast Food Innovation

Cola-flavored ketchup, Taco Bells musical for Mexican Pizza, and McDonalds Grimace Shake are just some of the ways that food companies are fighting for your attention. But does social media buzz translate to long-term sales?

Mary Long caught up with David Henkes, Senior Principal at Technomic and an expert on the food and beverage industry. They discuss:

- What it takes to bring a new fast food product to market
- How social media changed the restaurant industry
- The challenge of automating a kitchen

Companies discussed: YUM, MCD, PEP, WEN, CMG, SG

Host: Mary Long
Guest: David Henkes
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sat, 05 Aug 2023 16:00:00 +0000

How to Beat the Market

Everybody wants to beat the market. But how does one actually beat the market?

Ricky Mulvey and Anand Chokkavelu got together to explore different camps within the world of investing from short-term traders to buy-and-hold-for-lifers, value hunters to growth gurus. They discuss:

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Anand Chokkavelu
Producer: Mary Long
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 04 Aug 2023 20:26:00 +0000

U.S. Hits AA+ and the iPhone Slumps

Apples having the bad kind of iPhone moment and one restaurant chain is showing great growth without raising prices.

(00:35) Jason Moser and Bill Mann discuss:
- Fitch downgrading U.S. credit and why it shouldnt worry investors.
- How slowing iPhone sales are weighing on Apple, and how AWS keeps cruising for Amazon.
- Surprise profits from Uber, impressive traffic from Wingstop, E.l.fs epic quarter, and how PayPal might not go anywhere until they announce a new CEO.

(19:05) Motley Fool analyst Rick Munarriz weighs in on the state of Disneys Marvel and whether they can re-capture the box office magic any time soon..

(32:00) Jason and Bill break down two stocks on their radar: Calloway TopGolf and Outset Medical.

Stocks discussed: AMZN, AAPL, UBER, ELF, PYPL, WING, MODG, OM

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Bill Mann, Jason Moser, Rick Munarriz
Engineers: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 03 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

An E-Commerce Trifecta

Shopify pushes merchant services, Etsy tries to find its footing, and MercadoLibre continues to dazzle.

(00:20) Tim Beyers and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- If Shopify is actually a fintech now.
- The imbalance in Etsys platform.
- How MercadoLibres services are taking over Latin America.

(22:06) Jason Moser and Matt Frankel break down some of the stocks that help them sleep well at night.

Companies discussed: PINS, O, BRK, PSA, MKC, HD, ETSY, MELI, SHOP

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Tim Beyers, Matt Frankel, Jason Moser
Producer: Mary Long
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 02 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Starbucks Targets 12 Cups of Coffee

China was the star of Starbucks earnings report. Can the company convince consumers to drink more than a dozen cups of coffee annually to keep fueling growth?

(00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Starbucks slowing growth in the U.S. and torrid growth in China.
- Why investors need to be patient with Pinterest.
- How AI and lagging PC sales trends are affecting AMD.

(15:14) Deidre Woollard caught up with Yasser El-Shimy for a look at Saab a company that you think does one thing, but really should be on your radar for something else..

Companies discussed: SBUX, PINS, AMD, SAABY

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Asit Sharma, Deidre Woollard, Yasser El-Shimy
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Tue, 01 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Uber Makes a Profit

For the first time ever, Uber reported an operating profit. Staying in the green is a different story.

(00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Bill Mann discuss:
- Ubers long-term vision.
- If the ride hailing app deserves a victory lap.
- A mortgage REIT paying investors a 14% dividend.
- Overstocks brilliant rebrand to Bed, Bath, and Beyond.

Plus, (15:15) Robert Brokamp and Megan Brinsfield discuss common tax myths for digital nomads.

Stocks discussed: UBER, LYFT, ARI, OSTK

Click here for the latest Stock Advisor Roundtable episode!

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Bill Mann, Robert Brokamp, Megan Brinsfield
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks

Disclosure:
Motley Fool Wealth Management (MFWM) is an SEC registered investment adviser. MFWM, an affiliate of The Motley Fool LLC (TMF) is a separate legal entity, and all financial planning and discretionary asset management services for our clients are made independently by the financial planners and asset managers at MFWM. No TMF analysts are involved in the investment decision making or daily operations of MFWM. MFWM does not attempt to track any TMF services. Megan Brinsfield is the Director of Financial Planning at MFWM. The comments and ideas presented by the speaker in this podcast are solely those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent those of
MFWM or any of its affiliates. This discussion is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial planning advice or recommendations. Certain statements may be deemed forward-looking, however there is not guarantee of any outcome. Past performance does not guarantee future results. MFWM encourages you to seek personalized advice from qualified professionals, including (without limitation) tax professionals, regarding all personal finance issues. While we can counsel on tax efficiency and general tax considerations, MFWM does not (and is not permitted to) provide tax or legal advice. This discussion should not be relied upon as personalized financial planning or tax advice.


Mon, 31 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Yellow Cant Keep On Trucking

Freight company Yellow stopped operations and a bankruptcy is expected as the next move.

(00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Why Yellow shut down and what place it occupied in the world of trucking.
- SoFis strong quarter and what it needs to become profitable.
- Tupperware and the danger of meme stocks.

(19:39) Mauro Guilln, author of The Perennials, makes the case for abandoning traditional generational views of society, career development, and retirement.

Companies discussed: YELL, SOFI, TUP, ODFL, FDX, XPO
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Bill Barker, Mauro Guilln
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers


Sun, 30 Jul 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Anglerfish, Gila Monsters, and the Origin of Weight Loss Drugs

Weight loss drug sales are estimated to hit $44 billion by 2030. Many of these treatments can thank previously obscure research on a carnivorous deep sea fish for their development.

Rolfe Winkler is a reporter for the Wall Street Journal covering digital health. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Winkler to discuss:

- The origins and science behind weight loss drugs.
- The challenge of selling lizard venom research to pharmaceutical companies.
- What decades-old research on anglerfish reveals about modern side effects for Ozempic.
- And why its not too hard to keep dozens of Gila Monsters in your basement.

Monster Diet Drugs Like Ozempic Started With Actual Monsters: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ozempic-mounjaro-gila-monster-anglerfish-8c9c1ff2

Companies mentioned: NVO, LLY

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Rolfe Winkler
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Heather Horton


Sat, 29 Jul 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Rule Breaker Investing Fundamentals

Investing has plenty of rules. Dont invest in stocks without earnings. Sell half your position after a stock doubles. But, who made those rules anyway?

Ricky Mulvey caught up with Rule Breakers Lead Advisor Tim Beyers and The Motley Fools co-founder and Chief Rule Breaker David Gardner to discuss:

- What makes a business a Rule Breaker.
- Investing lessons from Apple, Tesla, and Intuitive Surgical.
- How to invest like a venture capitalist.
- Creating your own investing rules.
- What risk actually means for an investor.

Companies mentioned: TSLA, ISRG, AAPL, SNOW, CRM, TOST

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: David Gardner, Tim Beyers
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 28 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Show Me the Earnings!

The earnings parade is on, and this quarter it pays to be in the black.

(00:21) Matt Argersinger and Emliy Flippen discuss:
- The Feds latest rate hike and why another seems in the cards.
- Why earnings updates ended epic runs for Chipotle and Spotify.
- How big techs cost cutting is going.

(19:11) Bonus earnings coverage from Matt and Emily on Roku, Mastercard, Coca-Cola, and Live Nation.

(31:31) Emily and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: BorgWarner and Invitation Homes.


Stocks discussed: CMG, SPOT, META, GOOG, GOOGL, MSFT, ROKU, MA, KO, LYV

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Emily Flippen
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 27 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Meta Has 3 Billion Users. Now What?

Meta has our attention but will we follow Mark Zuckerberg into the metaverse?

(00:21) Asit Sharma and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Metas soaring ad impressions amid a tough advertising market.
- If Mark Zuckerberg will need to choose between AI and the metaverse.
- How Chipotle is using robots to boost efficiency.

(19:45) Matt Frankel interviews Walker & Dunlop CEO Willy Walker on commercial real estate debt and the challenges facing multifamily housing development.

Companies discussed: META, CMG, SBUX, WD

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Asit Sharma, Matt Frankel, Willy Walker
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Wed, 26 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Microsoft and Alphabets Cash Stacks

Microsofts cash flow is astounding, and Alphabets CFO moves to a pretty cool position CIO with a big check book.

(00:13) Tim Beyers and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Microsofts strong cloud business, and why the stocks selloff on guidance is misguided

- The slow roll of AI and how investors need to be patient with new tech efforts.

- Why Alphabet may have more good days ahead of it when the advertising market rebounds.

- The legacy of Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat

(16:14) Match group and Bumble have millions of paid users... but how many of those daters are sticking around for a while? Mary Long caught up with Motley Fool contributor Ryan Henderson to discuss the business of dating apps.

Companies discussed: MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, BMBL, MTCH

Host: Dylan Lewis

Guests: Tim Beyers, Mary Long, Ryan Henderson

Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd


Tue, 25 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

What Makes a Good 401(k)?

When interest rates rise, investors are supposed to move to safer assets.

(00:14) Jim Gillies and Ricky Mulvey discuss:

- Medpace shares hitting an all time high.
- If investors should prepare for a market correction during a "dopamine fiesta".
- The bull case for air bags and seatbelts.

Plus, (16:37) Robert Brokamp takes a look at how Americans are saving for retirement, and how to make better use of a 401(k).

Companies discussed: MEDP, ALV

Pullback report: www.fool.com/pullback

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Jim Gilles, Robert Brokamp
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Heather Horton


Mon, 24 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Box Office Is Back, For Now

A good weekend at the box office doesnt mean movie theaters are out of the woods yet

(00:15) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss:

- Why partnerships may be the future for ESPN.

- How a decision on AMCs preferred stock complicates its future.

- The importance of loyal pizza lovers for Dominos.

(17:13) Sanmeet Deo and Ricky Mulvey look at the short report for Xponential Fitness and separate out the inflammatory from the potentially concerning.

Companies discussed: DIS, DPZ, AMC, APE, XPOF

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Sanmeet Deo
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 24 Jul 2023 01:21:00 +0000

The Ride of a Lifetime Book Club

Before Bob Iger was the Disney CEO, he was the Disney CEO.

For the latest edition of the Motley Fool Money Book Club, Deidre Woollard, Mary Long, and Ricky Mulvey read Bob Igers memoir, The Ride of a Lifetime. They discuss:

Companies discussed: DIS, AAPL, NFLX

If youve read The Ride of a Lifetime, share your takeaways and quibbles with the team at podcasts@fool.com or on Twitter @motleyfoolmoney.

Guests: Deidre Woollard, Mary Long, Ricky Mulvey

Engineer: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Sat, 22 Jul 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Mattels Filmmaking Strategy

Mattel has 45 films in development. A cinematic take on UNO could be coming to a theater near you.

Mary Long caught up with New Yorker writer Alex Baracsh to discuss his recent piece, After Barbie, Mattel Is Raiding Its Entire Toybox. They discuss:

- How Mattel is becoming an IP company.
- Why The Last of Us broke the curse of bad video game adaptations.
- If big budget movies really need characters that audiences already know.

Companies mentioned: MAT, HAS, DIS

Host: Mary Long
Guest: Alex Barasch
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Fri, 21 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Netflix and Tesla Play With Pricing

International travel is back in a big way, and Netflix really wants you to choose between higher tiered plans or ad-supported.

(00:42) Ron Gross and Andy Cross discuss:
- The reasons Netflix is doing away with its lowest paid offering.
- What investors should make of the Johnson & Johnson/Kenvue splitoff.
- Why concerns over Teslas tightening margins might be overblown
- Trends in travel and consumer spending based on results from United, American, Discover, and American Express.

(19:04) Motley Fool Moneys Alex Friedman caught up with author David Meerman Scott about the lessons he and Hubspot co-founder Brian Halligan think businesses can borrow from the Grateful Dead.

(32:40) Ron and Andy break down two stocks on their radar: Toro and Mueller Industries.

Stocks discussed: NFLX, JNJ, KVUE, TSLA, AMEX, DFS, AAL, UAL, AXP

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Ron Gross, Andy Cross, Alex Friedman, David Meerman Scott
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Cashing In On Chips

The semiconductor industry may have hit bottom based on some recent earnings, but is it only up from here?

(00:12) Tim Beyers and Deidre Woollard discuss:

(17:49) Kirsten Guerra and Deidre Woollard explore what solar inverters do and which companies are profiting from this growing niche.

Companies discussed: ASML, TSM, NVDA, AAPL, ENPH, SEDG

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Tim Beyers, Kirsten Guerra
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 19 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Carvanas Bet on Debt Restructuring

Carvana is selling the good silver to shore up its debt situation, and shareholders are about to get diluted.

(00:21) Bill Mann and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Why Goldman Sachs is struggling in the consumer space and what its write-downs mean for real estate.
- How debt restructuring sent shares of Carvana up 30%.
- Why investors might want to adjust their expectations for the car-seller thats up 10X year-to-date.

(15:08) Just one American carmaker is a top electric vehicle seller in China. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Bill Mann to talk about the landscape of the world's largest car market.


Companies discussed: GS, CVNA, BYDDY, TSLA, NVDA, TSM

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Ricky Mulvey, Bill Mann
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Tue, 18 Jul 2023 20:20:00 +0000

Schwab Is Not SVB

When Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, some investors thought Charles Schwab could be next. But, the bank with $8 trillion in client assets is proving to be resilient.

(00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma discuss:
- Schwabs cash sorting problem.
- Takeaways from bank earnings.
- A deadline for the Microsoft/Activision deal whooshing by.

(11:21) Robert Brokamp answers listener questions about 529 plans, target-date funds, and investing in a 401(k).

Companies discussed: SCHW, MS, PNC, BAC, MSFT, ATVI

Pullback report: www.fool.com/pullback

Got a question for the show? Email us at podcasts at fool dot com.

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 17 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The EV Truck War Is Officially On

Telsa finally introduces the Cybertruck and Ford fights back with a price cut on the F-150Lightning.

(00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- The futuristic appeal of the Cybertruck compared to more traditional models.
- Why Ford announced a price drop on the F-150 Lightning.
- How Eli Lilly could win big in the weight-loss wars.

(18:53) The majority of borrowers havent been paying off their student loan debt. Matt Frankel explains what the resumption of payments could mean for the economy.

Companies discussed: F, TSLA, GM, LLY, NVO, SOFI, NNI

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Bill Barker, Ricky Mulvey
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Sun, 16 Jul 2023 16:01:00 +0000

A Marketplace of Ideas

So, youve got an idea. But how do you get the backing to make your big dream a reality?

Becky Center is the CEO of Indiegogo, an online crowdfunding platform thats helped over 800,000 entrepreneurs bring their ideas to life. Deidre Woollard caught up with Center to talk about:

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Becky Center
Producer: Mary Long
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sat, 15 Jul 2023 16:01:00 +0000

Hand-Wavy Finance

S&P 500 companies mentioned artificial intelligence more than 1,000 times in the latest quarter, which is more than double from last year.

Ricky Mulvey and Anand Chokkavelu took a look at the techniques behind hand-wavy finance, and how companies like to capture your attention. They discuss:

- How Apple repeatedly blew away Wall Street analysts
- The big bath strategy for reporting bad news
- What previous hype cycles can teach investors about the latest, shiny new thing

Companies discussed: AI, KR, GE, AAPL, META

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Anand Chokkavelu
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 14 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Big Banks Cash In

If you bank with the one of the giants, you might be helping pad their bottom line.

(00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- Why theyre watching margins and inventory levels this earnings season.
- How interest rate spread pushed JP Morgan to a stellar quarter.
- How short sellers are creating big YTD returns for beaten up companies.


(19:11) Deidre Woollard speaks with Steve Wyett, the Chief Strategist Officer at Bok Financial, about how shifting interest rates have affected consumers and asset allocation, and the divide between the big banks and everyone else.

(31:29) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Franklin Electric and Disney.


Stocks discussed: JPM, PEP, CVNA, RDFN, CMG, DPZ, FELE, DIS

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser, Deidre Woollard, Steve Wyett
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 13 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Travel Is Still Flying High

Another positive sign for the travel industry as Delta raises guidance.

(00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- The surge in international travel and where Deltas next revenue bump could come from.
- What factors could slow the travel boom.
- The curious allure of the many flavors of Doritos.

(15:11) The latest memo from Howard Marks takes a look at past cycles. Deidre Woollard and Ricky Mulvey explore the memo and the danger of focusing too much on the big macro.

Companies discussed: DAL, PEP

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Bill Barker, Ricky Mulvey
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Wed, 12 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

One Step Closer to a $69B Deal

The FTC failed to prove the Microsoft/Activision Blizzard deal would substantially lessen competition, which means blockbuster acquisition might come together before next weeks deadline.

(00:21) Bill Mann and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Why the FTCs attempt to block the Microsoft/Activision Blizzard deal failed.
- The concessions Microsoft is making to make the deal happen.
- How were seeing a similar response to regulatory interest in Broadcoms planned acquisition.

(14:09) Is it the end of an era for superheros? Mary Long caught up with Catie Peiper to discuss trends in entertainment and Mattel's big bet on Barbie.

Companies discussed: MSFT, ATVI, VMW, AVGO, DIS, MAT, HAS

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Bill Mann, Mary Long, Catie Peiper
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Tue, 11 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Prime Shoppers Spend More

Amazon can expect $13 billion in Prime Day sales, but what does that mean for a $1.3 trillion company?

(00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Jason Moser discuss:
- The services that Amazon wants shoppers to notice.
- If Prime Day is an economic bellwether.
- Bank of Americas fine from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Plus, (13:31) Robert Brokamp interviews Wade Pfau, author of the recently updated Retirement Planning Guidebook, on how to find a retirement spending style.

Companies discussed: AMZN, BAC

Pullback stocks report: https://www.fool.com/pullback

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Jason Moser, Robert Brokamp, Wade Pfau
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 10 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The NY Times Goes All In On The Athletic

The New York Times leaves its sports desk behind as it puts its might behind The Athletic.

(00:21) Jim Mueller and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Why the New York Times announced it is shutting down its sports department.
- The future of sports coverage and sports entertainment.
- The Barbie movie and the potential value of Mattels intellectual property.

(15:53) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma look at some ultra-luxury businesses... and why theyre beating the market.

Companies discussed: NYT, DIS, RACE, RH, LVMUY, PPRUY, HESAY, MAT

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jim Mueller, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Sun, 09 Jul 2023 16:01:00 +0000

The Business of Resale

You might not have heard of Winmark, but you could be more familiar with its stores. The resale franchise company owns concepts including Platos Closet, Play It Again Sports, and Once Upon a Child.

Winmark CEO, Brett Heffes, caught up with Jim Gillies for a rare interview about:

- How a focused mission shapes Winmarks business
- Creating long-lasting relationships with franchisees
- The resale companys capital allocation strategy and growth expectations
- What some investors misunderstand about Winmark

Company discussed: WINA

Host: Jim Gillies
Guest: Brett Heffes
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Sat, 08 Jul 2023 16:04:00 +0000

Maybe the Headset Isnt the Way

Immersive technology is more than goggles. Jason Moser and Matt Frankel discuss:

- Apples bet on spatial computing
- A major interface problem for headset adoption
- Metas VR subscription service
- Less obvious companies that could benefit from a boom in immersive tech

Companies discussed: AAPL, META, GOOG, GOOGL, MSFT, ATVI, CDNS, AMT, AXON

Host: Jason Moser
Guest: Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 07 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Whats Next for 2023?

Higher rates are here to stay, and some stories we expected to see in the first half of 2023 might still be ahead of us.

(00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- Whiplash in employment data, and the certainty of rate hikes for the rest of the year.
- Metas new app Threads and what it means for Twitter.
- Some surprises from the first half of 2023 and stories to watch for the rest of the year.

(19:11) Motley Fool Moneys Deidre Woollard spoke with Smith about the cycles in digital media, his new book Traffic, and how one legacy media company has managed to stay on top throughout all the shifts.

(32:04) Jason and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Vesta Real Estate and Callaway Golf.

Stocks discussed: AAPL, META, NYT, BZFD, AMZN, VTMX, MODG

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser, Deidre Woollard, Ben Smith
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 06 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Car Sales Are Soaring

The numbers for the first half of the year look strong for car sales, will EV sales start being a bigger piece of the pie?

(00:21) Tim Beyers and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- If the strong numbers for new car sales will continue.
- The power of Teslas brand in the EV space.
- Why we shouldnt get too excited about the prospect of flying cars yet.

(21:25) Small landlords still make up the bulk of single-family rentals. Deidre Woollard interviews Bigger Pocketss podcast host Dave Meyer on the demographic shifts impacting real estate investing.

Companies discussed: GM, TSLA, JOBY, OPEN, RDFN, EVTL, ACHR

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Tim Beyers, Dave Meyer
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Heather Horton


Wed, 05 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Twitter Faces Threats from AI and Meta

AI is changing the open internet landscape, and Metas new Threads app is looking to take a bite of Twitters audience.

(00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Twitters decision to rate-limit tweets and Reddits move to begin charging for API access.
- What those moves say about AI, online intellectual property, and the next era of the internet.
- Metas new Twitter challenger Threads.

(16:01) Nick Sciple joins Ricky Mulvey to share three stocks that he recently bought.

Companies discussed: META, EOLS, GOLF, PM, DIS


Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Asit Sharma, Rickey Mulvey, Nick Sciple
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 02 Jul 2023 15:00:00 +0000

FI, Not FIRE

Over the holiday weekend, we take a break from the cookouts and fireworks to focus on FI Financial Independence.

Dylan Lewis and Brian Feroldi discuss:
- The core principles of FI and the different styles it can take
- Why a down market is a great time to check in on your financial independence and retirement progress
- Why its not too late to get started if you feel behind!

Note, this episode is a re-air of a conversation originally recorded in July, 2022.

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Brian Feroldi
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Sat, 01 Jul 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Best-of: William Cohan on GEs Legacy

Before the mega-cap tech giants, there was General Electric.

William D. Cohan is a Founding Partner of Puck and the author of Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of an American Icon. Cohan joined Ricky Mulvey to discuss:

- Jack Welch, and the religion of earnings consistency.
- The mythology behind General Electrics birth.
-General Electrics time of death.
- Why Cohan believes a combination between Warner Brothers Discovery and NBCUniversal is inevitable.

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: William D. Cohan
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks, Annie Franks

Companies discussed: GE, DIS, WBD, CMCSA


Fri, 30 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The Motley Fool Money Half-Year Review

2023 is half over and the stock market has rebounded significantly from its 2022 lows.

(00:21) Andy Cross and Jason Moser discuss:
Revised first quarter GDP data
Nike earnings coming in a bit light
The Biden Administration's proposed new artificial intelligence chip export restrictions for China.

(19:11) Motley Fool Money's Deidre Woollard caught up with Dave Meyer, the VP of Growth and Analytics at Bigger Pockets to talk through how the housing market has held up this year in the face of higher rates and whether trends like aging in place and sunbelt migration are here to stay.

(32:07) Jason and Andy talk about two ideas on their radar: Amazon and Winmark.

Stocks discussed: MKC, NKE, GIS, DAL, NVDA, AMD, CCL WBA, PEP. AMZN, WINA

Host: Ron Gross
Guests: Andy Cross, Jason Moser, Deidre Woollard, Dave Meyer
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 29 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Is The Sharing Economy Growing Up?

DoorDash has started offering hourly wages for its couriers.

(00:21) Bill Barker and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- What prompted DoorDashs recent updates.
- Fees, tips, and other ways Airbnb and DoorDash pass on costs to consumers.
- How demand for spicy food is just one positive sign for McCormick.

(16:15) Sanmeet Deo and Mary Long break down the main components of Adobes business and how AI could prove to be a major growth area.

Companies discussed: ADBE, MKC, DASH, ABNB, UBER

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Bill Barker, Sanmeet Deo, Mary Long
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Wed, 28 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Costco Cracks Down

Netflix isnt the only company solving a sharing problem.
(00:21) Bill Barker and Ricky Mulvey discuss:
- Deltas investor day and rosy profit guidance.
- General Mills hitting a pricing power limit.
- How Costco is solving its free rider problem.
- AutoZones CEO, Bill Rhodes, stepping down and the retailers unappreciated success story.

Plus, (14:31) Jason Moser and Matt Frankel check in on regional banks, and Apples consumer finance play.

Companies/ETF mentioned: DAL, GIS, COST, AZO, ORLY, AAPL, GS, KRE

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Bill Barker, Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Tue, 27 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

What to Do with Dividends

One key ingredient in Warren Buffetts Secret Sauce is stocks that pay a dividend, but then youve got to let them simmer for a very long time.


(00:21) Jim Gillies and Ricky Mulvey discuss:
- Walgreens Boot Alliances disappointing 3rd quarter.
- The pharmacy chains turnaround story.
- What to look for in investor presentations.
- Why investors are cheering Brookfields $4.3 billion bid for life insurance company, American Equity.


Plus, (11:54) Robert Brokamp and Matt Argersinger discuss the fundamentals and tradeoffs of owning dividend payers.


Companies mentioned: WBA, BN, BAM, AEL, KO, AMX, MO, HD, AOS, PLD


Links:
Rule Your Retirement article: https://www.fool.com/premium/rule-your-retirement/coverage/1062/coverage/2023/05/26/how-buffetts-secret-sauce-could-pay-for-your-retir/


Dividend Knights list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1-OPCz9pXOcgFqmbMR3wxREg4O7ws_qWW8RWqKPYn1D4/edit#gid=0


Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Jim Gillies, Robert Brokamp, Matt Argersinger
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Mon, 26 Jun 2023 20:40:00 +0000

Carnival Sets Course For Debt Reduction

Bookings are spiking for Carnival Cruise Lines, how can the company make the most of the cruise boom?


(00:21) Jason and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- The strong demand for cruises and travel.
- How Carnivals plans to pay off its heavy debt load.
- The prospects for Oddity Tech, a new DTC-brand IPO.


(14:55) Ricky Mulvey and author Robert Glazer discuss why investors should look for businesses with a cultural advantage and how to spot one.


Companies discussed: CCL, GS, ABNB, TSLA, AMZN, WP, BARK, BIRD


Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Robert Glazer
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Sun, 25 Jun 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Amazon Vs. Walmart

Mary Long caught up with Jason Del Rey, author of Winner Sells All: Amazon, Walmart, and the Battle for Our Wallets.

- How Amazon often beat Walmarts low-price guarantee.
- The incentives that slowed down Walmarts e-commerce rollout.
- Why WalMart was hesitant about creating a loyalty program.
- Amazon and Walmarts push into healthcare.

Companies discussed: AMZN, WMT

Host: Mary Long
Guest: Jason Del Rey
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Sat, 24 Jun 2023 16:00:00 +0000

One Up on Wall Street Book Club

You probably know something that a Wall Street analyst doesnt, and that gives you an edge.

Mary Long and Ricky Mulvey revisit Peter Lynchs investing classic One Up on Wall Street: How to Use What You Already Know to Make Money in the Market. They discuss:

- How to research a company beyond earnings statements
- One common misunderstanding about Lynchs style of investing
- Where regular investors can find an edge over institutional money

Companies discussed: FDX, NVDA, MCD

Have a book recommendation for the book club? Let us know at podcasts@fool.com

Host: Mary Long
Guest: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 23 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Deal or No Deal?

Regulators are taking a hard look at acquisitions for Adobe, MIcrosoft, and Amazon. And that might be a good thing for Adobe and Activision shareholders.

(00:21) Emily Flippen and Matt Argersinger discuss:

- Why more rate hikes are on the way.
- How housings impact on inflation probably wont slow down any time soon.
- Why Activision and Adobe shareholders might not want their companys proposed acquisitions to go through.


(19:11) Deidre Woollard spoke with Atif Qadir, the founder of proptech company Commonplace, about how issues at regional banks affect real estate, and whether empty office space can really be turned into apartments.


(31:16) Emily and Matt break down two ideas on their radar: Spotify and Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF.


Stocks discussed: ADBE, AMZN, IRBT, MSFT, ATVI, SPOT, SCHD

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Emily Flippen, Matt Argersinger, Deidre Woolard, Atif Qadir
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 22 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Alibaba Shakes Things Up

Alibaba shuffles the deck as it heads towards spinning off its cloud division.

(00:21) Bill Mann and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- Alibabas leadership changes.
- The difference between spin-offs and IPOs for Alibaba shareholders.
- If Amazon makes it too hard to unsubscribe from Prime.

(15:50) Deidre Woollard and Ricky Mulvey cover what happens when a stock trades under $1.

Companies discussed: BABA, AMZN, WE, NKLA, VCSA, APRN

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Bill Mann, Ricky Mulvey
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 21 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

EVs Get Supercharged

Rivian, Ford, and General Motors are all on-board to make cars that can use Teslas charging standard. But this collaboration wont slow down the competition in electric vehicles any time soon.

(00:12) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss:

- Why Rivian, Ford, and General Motors are signing on to make cars work with Teslas North American Charging Standard (NACS).

- Whats behind Teslas 140% jump in shares so far in 2023

- Hyuandais $28B 10-year commitment to EVs and the Chinese governments new $72B tax break program.

NOTE: In the discussion, we accidentally refer to the combined charging standard as CSS instead of CCS

(12:30) Ricky Mulvey caught up David Johnston, a vice president of asset protection and retail operations for the National Retail Federation to take a look inside retail crime syndicates and what's being done to stop them.

Companies discussed: TSLA, F, GM, LOW, TGT, HD, CVS

Host: Dylan Lewis

Guests: Asit Sharma, David Johnston, Ricky Mulvey

Producer: Ricky Mulvey

Engineers: Tim Sparks


Tue, 20 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

PayPal's Growth Story

DraftKings wants to consolidate the sports betting market, but it still has a long road to profitability.(00:14)Ricky Mulvey and Nick Sciple discuss:-PayPal selling off more than $40 billion of buy now, pay later loans.

-The payment processor's capital allocation strategy.
-The DraftKings bid to buy a rival operator.
-Why sports betting companies have a customer stickiness problem.

Plus, (12:20) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer listener questions about 401(k)s, investing, and cash management.

Companies/tickers mentioned: PYPL, KKR, AFRM, DKNG, TQQQ

"Women Power Rule Breakers - A Sparks Conversation" event registrationhttps://fool.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_BbdTqNGmQXKbWOx_zlb7bw#/registration

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Nick Sciple, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 18 Jun 2023 16:01:00 +0000

UFC Economics

You cant be afraid to step on toes if you want to run a mixed martial arts promotion or stomp on them.

Michael Thomsen is the author of Cage Kings: How an Unlikely Group of Moguls, Champions, and Hustlers Transformed the UFC into a $10 billion Industry. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Thomsen to discuss:

- The rise and transformation of the UFC
- How president Dana White negotiates with fighters
- What investors may want to know about the upcoming merger between WWE and the UFC

Companies discussed: EDR, WWE

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Michael Thomsen
Producer: Deidre Woollard
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sat, 17 Jun 2023 16:00:00 +0000

The Evolution of Urbanism

For the past century, cities have centered around work. What happens when thats no longer the case?

Deidre Woollard and Matt Argersinger discuss:

Companies and REITs mentioned: CRM, ARE, WE, PEAK, DEA Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Matt Argersinger Producers: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 16 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The New Bull Market

Some are saying its a bull market, were calling it a giddy one.

(00:21) Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- The latest inflation numbers and the Feds plan to skip a rate hike.
- How a small group of companies are driving market returns, and why the rest could catch up.
- Why the market was hungry for shares of restaurant brand Cava.


(19:11) Polina Pompliano shares some unconventional business advice and insights from her new book Hidden Genius: The secret ways of thinking that power the world's most successful people.

(35:13) Ron and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Chevron and Burford Capital.


Stocks discussed: CAVA, NDAQ, KR, ORCL, SPOT, SHOP, CVX, BUR

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Ron Gross, Polina Pompliano
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 15 Jun 2023 19:56:00 +0000

Selling Secrets Across The Globe

A former Samsung executive allegedly stole plans in order to build a chip plant down the road from the existing factory. What could possibly go wrong?

(00:15) Bill Mann and Deidre Woollard discuss:

- The high value of getting a leg up on the competition in the semiconductor industry.

- If companies can do anything to keep secrets from leaking out.

- Why Alphabets adtech is attracting regulators attention.

(13:53) Ricky Mulvey and Kirsten Guerra take a look at Vertex Pharmaceuticals and its role at the center of cystic fibrosis treatment.

Companies discussed: GOOG, GOOGL,KO, VRTX, SSNLFHost: Deidre Woollard

Guests: Bill Mann, Ricky Mulvey, Kirsten Guerra
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Wed, 14 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Netflixs Promising Next Act

Netflixs is aiming to return to growth by cracking down on password sharing.

(00:12) Jim Mueller and Dylan Lewis discuss:

(14:45) Asit Sharma catches up with Sasan Goodarzi the CEO of Intuit to talk about how his company is using artificial intelligence to grow and Intuit's data advantage.

Companies discussed: NFLX, AAPL, AMZN, DIS, INTU

Host: Dylan Lewis

Guests: Jim Mueller, Sasan Goodarzi, Asit Sharma

Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl, Kyle Carruthers


Tue, 13 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

An Inflection Point for adidas

Inflation is slowing down. Is this what a soft landing looks like?

(00:21) Motley Fool Senior Analyst Asit Sharma and Ricky Mulvey discuss:
- Big macro takeaways from the latest inflation numbers.
- How adidas is dealing with the fallout from discontinuing its Yeezy line.
- If the apparel maker has balance sheet risk.


Plus, (15:00) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp discuss the costs and benefits of working with a financial advisor.


Companies discussed: ADDYY, NKE


Article discussed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-05-25/adidas-s-yeezy-mess-has-been-a-billion-dollar-nightmare-for-the-business

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 12 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Icahn Gets His Way

Carl Icahn gets what he was after as Illuminas CEO steps down but what does this mean for the companys potential big acquisition?


(00:21) Jason Moser and Deidre Woollard discuss:
- If Illuminas CEOs exit will impact the companys moves to acquire Grail.
- Carl Icahns history of activist investing.
- Thoma Bravos success in buying companies and repackaging them for sale.


(14:37) Ricky Mulvey interviews Anjay Nagpal, host of the podcast Brokers, Bagmen, and Moles about the curious history of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and its ramifications on todays investing universe.


Companies discussed: ILMN, IEP, NDAQ, MSFT, ATVI


Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Anjay Nagpal
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 11 Jun 2023 16:01:00 +0000

Are Banking Relationships Sticky?

When Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, $43 billion left its doors in one afternoon, or $1 million every second. How has the banking landscape changed since then?

Motley Fool Senior Analyst Bill Mann caught up with Chip Mahan, CEO of Live Oak Bank. They discuss:

- The breakdown of communication between regulators and Silicon Valley Bank
- How Live Oak Bank is differentiating itself from larger institutions
- Why traditional banks may face margin issues in the not too distant future

Companies discussed: LOB, JPM

Host: Bill Mann
Guest: Chip Mahan
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Sat, 10 Jun 2023 16:01:00 +0000

No One Will Ever Need a PC in Their Homes.

A new technology wont go far unless it solves a migraine-level problem.

Motley Fool Lives This Week in Tech co-hosts Tim Beyers and Tim White discuss:

- How investors can think about adoption lifecycles and tech investments
- Where generative AI lands on the hype cycle
- One key sign that a new product has crossed the chasm for widespread adoption
- ChatGPTs nice to haves

Companies discussed: IT, AAPL, MDB, HUBS

Host: Tim Beyers
Guest: Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 09 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Spatial Computing and Safety Deposit Boxes in the Sky

Will mixed reality win out over virtual reality? And is crypto a security?

(00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- Apples Vision Pro headset and the companys new focus on spatial computing.
- How the offering stacks up to Metas Quest products.
- The SECs suit against Coinbase and Binance, and what it means for crypto.

(19:11) Deidre Woollard speaks with Wall Street Journal reporter and author Katherine Clarke about the business of New York real estate and her new book Billionaires Row.

(33:06) Jason and Ron discuss the PGA/LIV partnership and two stocks on their radar: Adobe and Oxford Industries.Stocks discussed: AAPL, META, COIN, DOCU, SFIX, TTN, MTN, ADBE, OXM


Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Katherine Clarke, Deidre Woollard
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 08 Jun 2023 20:27:00 +0000

Game over for GameStops CEO

GameStops CEO is out and Spotify is shaking up its podcast strategy.

(00:20) Deidre Woollard and Bill Barker discuss:
- Why the market isnt quite certain about Ryan Cohens new role at GameStop.
- If GameStop can move beyond meme status and find new growth.
- Spotifys layoffs and what it signals about its strategic shift.

(11:40) Asit Sharma talks to former Snowflake CEO Bob Muglia on his new book The Datapreneurs, what Microsoft got wrong about the internet, and where AI could take us next.

Companies discussed: MSFT, GME, SPOT, SNOW

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Bill Barker, Asit Sharma, Bob Muglia
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Wed, 07 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Mixed Signals From Real Estate and Regional Banks

The pressure on commercial real estate borrowers is amping up, but so is insider buying at the regional banks lending them money.

(00:15) Bill Mann and Dylan Lewis discuss:

(13:27) Ricky Mulvey talks with CNBC host Melissa Lee to talk about the new documentary "Making of the Meme King" and why founding a company is much different than turning one around.

Companies discussed: LOB, CHWY, GME, BBBY, BABA

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Bill Mann, Ricky Mulvey, Melissa Lee
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Tue, 06 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Apple's $3500 "Snowboard Goggles"

Some cryptocurrency platforms are finding it hard to allegedly operate an unlicensed securities exchange in the USA, bro.


(00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Nick Sciple discuss:
- Apples Vision Pro Product, its biggest product launch in a decade.
- How Apple's hardware strategy differs from Meta.
- The Vision Pros possibilities and limitations.
- The SECs complaint against Coinbase.


Plus, (13:32) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp discuss how to plan for a healthier retirement.
Companies discussed: AAPL, META, COIN


Article discussed: https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-vision-pro-i-tried-the-new-mixed-reality-headset-f49a8811


Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Nick Sciple, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 05 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

AI Is Not A Person

The Directors Guilds deal shows just how much the entertainment industry sees AI as a theat.


(00:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- What a potential Directors Guild deal means for entertainment.
- The challenges facing streamers as they look for more ways to profit from content.
- Whether or not Apple can take headsets out of their gaming niche.


(16:36) A simple pack of casino playing cards leads Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma on an exploration of how old products can become new again.


Companies discussed: SNPS, META, AAPL, NFLX,DIS,WBD, PARA


Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 04 Jun 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Who Controls the Magnets?

If you didnt have a reliable supply of electricity, what would you do to secure it?

Robert Bryce is the author of A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations and the writer of an eponymous Substack. Motley Fool Senior Analyst Nick Sciple caught up with Bryce to discuss:

- Why more countries are turning to coal
- The challenges of building a reliable green energy grid
- The resurgence of interest in nuclear energy
- Supply chain issues for electric car batteries


Company mentioned: SMR

Host: Nick Sciple
Guest: Robert Bryce
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sat, 03 Jun 2023 16:01:00 +0000

A Sea Change in Space Exploration

Low Earth orbit now has some real estate problems.

Deidre Woollard caught up with Ashlee Vance, author of When the Heavens Went on Sale: The Misfits and Geniuses Racing to Put Space Within Reach. They discuss:

- The new business opportunity in clearing space junk
- How a self-taught engineer created a commercially successful rocket company
- The massive trade-offs that space companies make by going public

Companies discussed: RKLB, SPCE

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Ashlee Vance
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Consumer Spending is Tightening Up Kind Of

Americans are thinking twice before pulling out their wallets, but its not affecting retailers equally.

(00:21) Ron Gross and Emily Flippen discuss:
- The debt ceiling resolution, and updates on employment and consumer debt.
- Why Chewy and Five Below continue to see strong results while other retailers are seeing consumer spending slow down.
- The numbers behind MongoDBs blowout earnings release.


(19:11) Scott Kassing talks through three high-conviction stock ideas with Sandhill Investment Managements Richard Ryskalczyk.

(32:49) Emily and Ron discuss Lululemons strong earnings report and two stocks on their radar: Compass Minerals and Veeva Systems.


Stocks discussed: M, CHWY, FIVE, DG, MDB, LULU, CMP, VEEV


Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross, Richard Ryskalczyk, Scott Kassing
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Thu, 01 Jun 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Is AI Taking Tech To The Top?

With the Nasdaq up nearly 6% in May, tech seems to be soaring. Will earnings from CrowdStrike and Salesforce add to the AI hype?


(00:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- If happy days are here again for the world of tech.
- Why the market might be missing the greatness in CrowdStrikes earnings.
- How Marc Benioff found religion when it comes to cutting costs at Salesforce.


(19:29) The war on cash is evolving. Jason Moser explains how the financial times keep changing and what it means for fintech.


Companies discussed: CRWD, CRM, AAPL, MA, SQ, PYPL, V


Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests:Tim Beyers, Jason Moser, Alex Friedman
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 31 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The Houses Cut is Going Up

Its tough facing the house, whether youre playing it or trying to pay for one.

(00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss:

The latest housing data, showing high rates are affecting mortgage and refinance applications.
The broader economic strength were continuing to see in spite of high rates
How Las Vegas strip operators are tweaking their businesses to grow.

(12:22) Dana Corl and Keith Speights talk about big pharmas focus on the weight-loss space.

Companies discussed: MGM, CZR, LLY, NVO, WW

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Asit Sharma, Dana Corl, Keith Speights
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Tue, 30 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Debt Ceiling Drama, AI's Peak, and Expired Coffee

What kind of day has it been?

(00:21) Bill Barker discusses:
- The stock market reacting positively (or not) to the latest narrative around the debt ceiling debate
- Nvidia's new all-time high and why we haven't reached "peak AI" yet
- Listener feedback over the years and the concept of "playing to the back of the room"
- A surprise guest (via audio)

(20:28) Chris Hill wraps up his final episode hosting the show a salute to The Motley Fool's history and founders, the self-driven mentality of the audience, and advice from the late musician Kevin Gilbert.

Companies discussed: NVDA

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Barker
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Sun, 28 May 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Peter Zeihan on China, Apple, and Europe

Who has the upper hand when Apples CEO walks into a room with the President of the Peoples Republic of China?

Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist and the author of The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. Bill Mann caught up with Zeihan to discuss:

- Why Apple is diversifying production away from China
- What an aging population means for the United States economy
- Why de-dollarization is less likely than many think

Company discussed: APPL

Host: Bill Mann
Guest: Peter Zeihan
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Sat, 27 May 2023 16:01:00 +0000

Apropos of Something

Chris Hill loves coffee, curiosity, and people. To celebrate his run as the host of Motley Fool Money, Mary Long rounded up a few Fools to talk about what theyve learned from Chris as an investor, colleague, and friend. They discuss:

Companies mentioned: SBUX, V, MA, PYPL, SQ

Host: Mary Long
Guests: Ron Gross, Steve Broido, Alison Southwick, Bill Mann, Mac Greer, Bill Barker, Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Chris Harris, Dan Boyd
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 26 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Big Tech's Banner 2023 Continues

Tech is leading the market higher in 2023, but a few giants are doing the heavy lifting.


(00:21) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- Nvidia's AI-fueled earnings report and the company's historic pop.
- Intuit's latest results and how proposed IRS free-file software could affect the company.
- Zoom's post-pandemic slump
- The signs retailers are fixing inventory problems, but high-end merchandise still isn't selling.


(19:11) Motley Fool contributor Lou Whiteman talks with former United Airlines CEO Oscar Munoz about his approach to turning the airline around, dealing with personal setbacks, and the lessons in leadership from his book Turnaround Time.


(34:14) Matt and Jason discuss Netflix's $7.99/month solution to password sharing and two stocks on their radar: Salesforce and Invitation Homes.


Stocks discussed: NVDA, INTU, ZM, WSM, ULTA, COST, SPG, URBN, GPS, CRM, INVH


Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Oscar Munoz, Lou Whiteman
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Thu, 25 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Nvidia Booms

The graphics processing maker became $200 billion more valuable in a single day.


(00:21) Jim Gillies and Ricky Mulvey discuss:
- Nvidias blockbuster quarter and valuation questions to consider.
- The history of tech cycles and lessons for investors.
- If Best Buy needs sales growth to reward shareholders.


Plus, (16:21) Tim Beyers and Meilin Quinn interview Digital Ocean CEO Yancey Spruill about how the cloud service provider differentiates itself from competitors like Microsoft and Amazon.

Companies discussed: NVDA, BBY, QCOM, CSCO, INTC, MSFT, DOCN, AMZN


Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Jim Gillies, Yancey Spruill, Meilin Quinn, Tim Beyers
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Heather Horton


Stock Advisor Roundtable podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0RhY5qYNv1l2AyS4g8LV1d?si=ded6d6d1cdda46cb


Wed, 24 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The Chip Wars Next Chapter

Tech tensions between the U.S. and China continue to heat up. Micron is stuck in the middle and Apple looks to future-proof its supply chain.


[00:21] Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss:

Chinas ban on Micron chips for companies working on key infrastructure projects.
Apples multibillion dollar deal with Broadcom and the companys increased investment in U.S. manufacturing and supply chain.
How investors should be looking at the tech hardware companies in their portfolio.

[13:57] Deidre Woollard talks with Yanely Espinal, author of "Mind Your Money," about the unique challenges that immigrant families face while saving for retirement and the dangerous appeal of "Buy Now Pay Later."

Companies discussed: MU, AAPL, AVGO, BRK

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Asit Sharma, Deidre Woollard, Yanely Espinal
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan


Tue, 23 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Is Zoom Still A Growth Stock?

Zooms quarter showed that its no longer growing at its pre-pandemic levels. Can it move beyond video chat?


(0:21) Bill Barker discusses:
- Zooms growth trajectory
- Where Zooms revenue might come from next
- Are Lowes and Home Depot too similar?


(14:02) Social Security reform has been back in the news lately. Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp break down the myth-conceptions that surround Social Security.


Companies discussed: ZM, MSFT, HD, LOW, DKS, AMZN


Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Bill Barker, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 22 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The Next Chipotle or the Next Sweetgreen?

Mediterranean restaurant chain Cava has filed for an IPO later this year. Will investors be as satisfied as Cavas customers?

(00:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The growth of Cava and the companys plans for capital raised during the IPO
- How Cava could end up as the next Chipotle (or not)
- What another big week of retail earnings portends

(12:43) A lot of companies are talking about artificial intelligence on their conference calls this earnings season. Ricky Mulvey talks with Motley Fool analyst Meilin Quinn about a business that may be getting a genuine tailwind from AI.

Companies discussed: CMG, SG, COST, LOW, BBY, HD, WMT, TGT, CHGG, DUOL

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Meilin Quinn
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 21 May 2023 16:01:00 +0000

AI is Much More than ChatGPT

An artificial intelligence program could soon create a digital version of yourself. So, what are the implications when thats possible?

Rob LoCascio is the founder and CEO of LivePerson, a company that develops conversational commerce and AI software. Ricky Mulvey caught up with LoCascio to discuss:

- How artificial intelligence will change how you interact with brands
- Starboard Values campaign to change LivePersons board and CEO
- The unlocks that quantum computing could provide tech companies
- What natural language processing programs are revealing about interspecies communication

Companies mentioned: LPSN, GOOG, GOOGL

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Rob LoCascio
Engineer: Rick Engdahl
Production Assist: Dana Corl


Sat, 20 May 2023 15:59:00 +0000

Managing Cash Amid High Inflation

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 times since 2022. But you probably wouldnt notice those hikes in a traditional savings account.

Dylan Lewis caught up with Robert Brokamp to discuss:

- How banks benefit from your inertia, and how that costs you
- Ideas for managing cash for the next few weeks, months, and years
- Money market funds paying more than 4%, and the caveats to understand before utilizing those accounts
- Who can benefit from I Bonds and less-liquid savings vehicles

Website mentioned: https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guest: Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 19 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Big Retail, Apple, and the Fight for "Taco Tuesday"

As reports of Apple's next device surfaced, major retailers highlighted the week's earnings.

(0:21) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss:
- Walmart's grocery division (once again) doing the heavy lifting in its latest results
- Reports that Apple will unveil a $3,000 device at its developer conference in early June
- Netflix impressing advertisers and Wall Street
- The latest from Home Depot, Target, Foot Locker, and Deere

(19:11) Scott Phillips, chief investment officer at Motley Fool Australia, shares the current state of play for investors Down Under, Australian stocks to watch, and predictions for this year's Rugby World Cup.

(30:28) Ron and Jason discuss Taco Bell fighting to free the phrase "Taco Tuesday" from its current trademark holder and share two stocks on their radar: Owens Corning and Lowe's.

Stocks discussed: WMT, HD, TGT, FL, AAPL, MSFT, DE, NFLX, DIS, TTD, ASX, AMZN, MDB, GOOG, GOOGL, TEAM, TNE, YUM, LOW, OC

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Ron Gross, Scott Phillips
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Thu, 18 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

TikTok's 1st Ban

Is Montana's move against TikTok a speed bump or the start of a trend?

(00:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- How Snap, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet are watching the latest act in the TikTok drama
- Shares of Bath & Body Works popping 10% on its latest earnings report
- Names for scented candles

(14:15) As the retail landscape continues to evolve, Motley Fool contributor Rachel Warren talks with Anjee Solanki, Director of Retail Services at Colliers, about one category that's holding its own.

Companies discussed: META, GOOG, GOOGL, SNAP, BBWI, DG, ELF, ULTA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Matt, Rachel Warren, Anjee Solanki
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers


Wed, 17 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Short-Seller vs Prize Fighter

What happens when a short-seller collides with an activist investor?

(00:21) Bill Barker discusses:
- Target's 1st-quarter results beating expectations
- CEO Brian Cornell's comments about organized (and violent) retail theft
- Retail sales rising in April

(11:15) Dylan Lewis and Bill Mann discuss Hindenburg Research's report on Icahn Enterprises, raising questions about the conglomerate's accounting practices and its dividend.

Companies discussed: TGT, HD, IEP

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Dylan Lewis, Bill Mann
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Tue, 16 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Buffett's Latest Buys (and Sells)

Late Monday Berkshire-Hathaway filed a 13-F with the SEC, so we're taking a closer look at what they've been buying and selling.

(00:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Home Depot's lackluster 1st-quarter results masking an otherwise strong business
- Capital One getting a boost from the Oracle of Omaha
- The surprising energy stock the Berkshire Hathaway team took a stake in

(19:15) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp dip into the mailbag to answer your questions about investing, retirement, and more.

Companies discussed: HD, BRK.A, BRK.B, COP, USB, BK, TSM, RH, BAC, OXY, AAPL, HPQ, ATVI, VTS

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 15 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Time To Buy Golf Stocks?

Sometimes you need to stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball.

(00:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- EU regulators approving Microsoft's deal to buy Activision Blizzard (but investors being skeptical)
- Peloton recalling more than 2 million exercise bikes
- Why he's keeping a close eye on Home Depot's earnings report on Tuesday

(13:00) Nick Sciple joins Jason to discuss the business of golf and analyze two publicly-traded golf companies.

Companies discussed: MSFT, ATVI, SONY, PTON, HD, WMT, TJX, TGT, MODG, GOLF

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Nick Sciple
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 14 May 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Making Cash vs Preserving Money

If you like to tinker with your investments, then its tough to beat the market over a long period of time.

John M. Jennings is the president of St. Louis Trust & Family Office, a Professor at Washington Universitys Olin Business School, and the author of The Uncertainty Solution: How to Invest with Confidence in the Face of the Unknown. Deidre Woollard caught up with Jennings to discuss:

- Why the improbable happens all the time

- 1 key attribute that some of the best-performing stocks have in common
- And the business advantage that fast followers have over pioneers


Companies mentioned: SCHW, TJX, APPL, HUM, SHW

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: John M. Jennings
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Heather Horton


Sat, 13 May 2023 16:01:00 +0000

Foolish Advice for College Grads

Congratulations on finishing up college! So what are you going to do now?

Mary Long caught up with four Fools to get some actionable advice for new college grads. They discuss:

- What to do when you get your first paycheck.
- How risk-averse grads can get in the stock market.
- Preparing your finances for job hopping.
- The difference between being a Rule Breaker and a Bridge Burner.

Stocks, ETFs mentioned: SPY, QQQ, BRK.B

Host: Mary Long
Guests: Ron Gross, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, David Gardner
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 12 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Alphabet's Event Serves Notice To Wall St.

At its annual developers conference, Google's parent company reminded everyone how it got to be one of the most dominant businesses in America.

(0:21) Matt Argersinger and Andy Cross discuss:
- The latest inflation data and the current state of play for investors
- Skepticism around the near-term future of Airbnb sending the stock lower
- Alphabet shares rising 10% after the company unveiled new devices and AI-enhanced software
- The latest from Disney, Roblox, JD.com, and PayPal

(19:11) Ross Anderson, co-founder of Craftwork Capital and co-host of the "Check Your Balances" podcast, shares the most common question he's getting from clients, advice for college graduates, and the economic data he's watching most closely.

(31:50) Matt and Andy answer a mailbag question about portfolio strategy, discuss The Cheesecake Factory's new rewards program, and share two stocks on their radar: A.O. Smith and Deere.

Got a question about stocks? Email podcasts@fool.com

You can find the "Check Your Balances" show on your favorite podcast app, including Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/check-your-balances/id1551991071

Stocks discussed: ABNB, DIS, RBLX, JD, PYPL, GOOG, GOOGL, CAKE, AOS, DE

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Andy Cross, Ross Anderson
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 11 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Money Advice from Moms

Spending, investing, dealing with debt...moms have seen it all.

(00:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Disney shares falling after a lackluster 2nd-quarter report
- The fate of Hulu
- Why The Trade Desk is an attractive business (with a richly-valued share price)

(11:17) Mother's Day is on Sunday! To celebrate, Lysha Fuentes, Jim Mueller, Anand Chokkavelu, and Jim Gillies share money lessons they got from their moms.

Got a question about personal finance? Email podcasts@fool.com and your question might get used in next week's mailbag segment!

Companies discussed: DIS, CMCSA, TTD

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Lysha Fuentes, Jim Mueller, Anand Chokkavelu, Jim Gillies
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 10 May 2023 20:30:00 +0000

Writers Strike & The Future of Streaming


The last writers strike lasted 100 days. How long will this one last and what will it mean for entertainment businesses?

(00:21) Bill Barker discusses:
- The latest inflation data putting a smile on Wall Street's face
- Pricing data for gasoline and bacon
- Axon Enterprise succeeding despite today's stock drop

(8:48) What will the writers strike mean for streaming businesses? Dana Corl talks with Vulture television critic Jen Chaney about why the writers are striking and the ripple effects for companies like Netflix and Disney.

Companies discussed: AXON, WBD, NFLX, DIS

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Dana Corl, Jen Chaney
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Tue, 09 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Guidance Trumps Results...Again

Sometimes it really doesn't matter if your quarterly profits were higher than Wall Street was expecting.

(00:21) Bill Barker discusses:
- Shares of PayPal falling close to a 5-year low after guidance for the current quarter was low
- How PayPal's CEO search is affecting shareholders
- Under Armour's continued struggles and less-than-impressive record of share buybacks

(14:40) If college tuition payments are in your future, are you ready? Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Megan Brinsfield of Motley Fool Wealth Management about different scenarios for paying for college.

Companies discussed: PYPL, UA, UAA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Megan Brinsfield
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl

Motley Fool Wealth Management (MWFM) is an SEC registered investment adviser. MWFM, an affiliate of The Motley Fool LLC (TMF) is a separate legal entity, and all financial planning and discretionary asset management services for our clients are made independently by the financial planners and asset managers at MFWM. No TMF analysts are involved in the investment decision making or daily operations of MFWM. MFWM does not attempt to track any TMF services.
All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Certain statements may be deemed forward-looking. There is not guarantee that these projections or forward-looking statements will come to fruition. This discussion is for informational and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations.


Mon, 08 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Buffett on Apple, Banks, and Value Investing

When Warren Buffett speaks, investors and Wall Street tend to listen.

(00:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Berkshire Hathaway's 1st-quarter results and highlights from the annual meeting
- Buffett's comments about Apple and the banking industry
- Charlie Munger's warning about over-diversification

(9:51) In a segment that originated in the Motley Fool Live videostream, Jim Gillies shares observations from his trip to Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with Nick Sciple and Deidre Woollard. The three discuss whether value investing is actually harder for Buffett and Munger than it is for average investors.

Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, AAPL, TSE: HCG

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Nick Sciple, Jim Gillies, Deidre Woollard
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Sun, 07 May 2023 16:01:00 +0000

The Power of Optionality

The pessimist believes that setbacks become ones identity. The optimist believes something else.

Kevin Kelly is the founding executive editor of Wired magazine and the author of Excellent Advice for Living: Wisdom I Wish Id Known Earlier. Motley Fool co-founder and Chief Rule Breaker David Gardner caught up with Kelly to discuss:

- The power of compounding in your finances and personal relationships.
- ChatGPT and the origins of hacking.
- Why investors should be unafraid of losing.

Todays conversation comes from a recent episode of Davids weekly podcast, Rule Breaker Investing. To hear the entire show, click here: https://www.fool.com/podcasts/rule-breaker-investing/2023-05-03-excellent-advice-for-living-with

Company discussed: AMZN

Host: David Gardner
Guest: Kevin Kelly
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sat, 06 May 2023 16:00:00 +0000

2 High-Growth Companies to Watch

Just because a stock is down 50% doesnt mean that the business is broken. (Or does it?)

Ricky Mulvey caught up with Motley Fool Senior Analyst Yasser El-Shimy to talk about some higher growth companies whose stocks have taken a hit. They discuss:

- How investors can approach growth stocks with a venture capital lens.
- Profitability questions for a streaming data company.
- A second look at a space company that went public via SPAC.

Companies discussed: CFLT, LMT, SPCE, RKLB

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Yasser El-Shimy
Engineer: Tim Sparks
Production Assist: Alex Friedman


Fri, 05 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Apple's Approaching $3T

The biggest company in American led a packed week of earnings and macro data.

(0:21) Andy Cross and Ron Gross discuss:
- The Fed's latest rate hike, April's jobs report, and the latest banking drama
- Apple's surprising 2nd-quarter results and $90 billion share buyback plan
- Shopify shares rising 25% due to multiple company announcements
- The latest from Marriott, Booking Holdings, and Starbucks

(19:11) Andy and Ron continue their analysis, with a focus on:
- Mercadolibre's continued growth and impressive runway
- Warner Bros. Discovery posting a 1st-quarter profit in its streaming division
- The latest from Uber, Lyft, Atlassian, and Johnson & Johnson
- Two stocks on their radar: Nice and Oxford Industries

Stocks discussed: JPM, PACW, WAL, FHN, AAPL, MAR, BKNG, SBUX, SHOP, UBER, LYFT, TEAM, JNJ, KVUE, MELI, WBD, NFLX, PARA, DIS, CMCSA, BRK, OXM, NICE

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Andy Cross, Ron Gross
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 04 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Burgers > Exercise

For one day in the stock market, investors voted with their stomachs.

(00:21) Bill Barker discusses:
- The Federal Reserve meeting expectations
- Paramount Global slashing its dividend 80%
- Peloton struggling with its turnaround
- Shake Shack posting higher revenue in the 1st quarter
- Potential names for Darden Restaurants newest franchise

(16:29) Ricky Mulvey talks with Motley Fool senior analyst (and Star Wars superfan) Jim Gillies about Disney's acquisition of Lucasfilm and ways to improve the franchise.

Companies discussed: PARA, PTON, SHAK, DRI, DIS, FNKO

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Jim Gillies
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Wed, 03 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Berkshire Hathaway Meeting Preview

Investings biggest weekend is almost here.

(00:21) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma discuss:
- Johnson & Johnsons spin-off of its consumer health company, Kenvue.
- If Darden Restaurants is getting a good deal on its acquisition of Ruths Hospitality Group.
- Yum! Brands quarter, and what it says about the global economy.

(12:42) Deidre Woollard and Matt Frankel look ahead to Berkshire Hathaways annual meeting, taking place this weekend.

Companies discussed: JNJ, KVUE, PG, RUTH, DRI, YUM, BRK.A, BRK.B, RDFN, OXY, CVX, AAPL

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Asit Sharma, Deidre Woollard, Matt Frankel
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Tue, 02 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The "New Normal" in Silicon Valley

As loans get more expensive, what are the ripple effects for start-up companies in the tech industry?

(00:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Uber's 1st-quarter results and CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's declaration of profitability in 2023
- Pfizer's results beating expectations despite demand for its Covid vaccine is falling
- Why he's more interested in the Federal Reserve on Wednesday than the jobs report on Friday

(10:49) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp continue their conversation with Bill Mann about how the "new normal" is affecting the tech industry in Silicon Valley.

Investments discussed: UBER, PFE, MRK, AAPL

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 01 May 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Another Bank Seized & Sold

Three of the four largest bank failures in U.S. history have happened in the past two months.

(00:21) Bill Barker discusses:
- Regulators seizing First Republic Bank and selling it to JP Morgan Chase
- CEO Jamie Dimon's comments about the state of play in banking
- Norwegian Cruise Line beating low expectations in the 1st quarter
- A plot point in last night's episode of "Succession"

(15:16) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp continue their conversation with Motley Fool senior analyst Bill Mann about the "new normal" of investing in China.

Investments discussed: JPM, NCLH, CCL, DIS, PG, AAPL, BABA, VTI, VWO, FRDM

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Bill Mann
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 30 Apr 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Private Equitys Opaque World

If you want to maximize the value of your home for decades, you might update the kitchen. But if your time frame is one week, then you might burn down the house. Brendan Ballou is a federal prosecutor and special counsel at the Department of Justice, where he led the antitrust divisions work on private equity. He's also authored a new book, Plunder, Private Equitys Plan to Pillage America. Ricky Mulvey caught up with him to talk about: - The techniques many private equity companies use to generate short-term returns - A key misunderstanding about the fall of in-person retailers - Private equitys impact on medical billing, bakeries, and insurance Companies discussed: CG, KKR, BX Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Brendan Ballou Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sat, 29 Apr 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Investing Lessons from Succession

You cant buy shares of Waystar RoyCo, but investors can still find helpful takeaways from the award-winning HBO series and the fictional companys leadership.

Ricky Mulvey talks with Motley Fool senior analyst Jim Gillies about:
- Whether CEO succession plans are worth investor attention
- Succession storylines that rhyme with real ones
- Questions about Berkshire Hathaways next stage
- One bold prediction about the end of Succession

SPOILER ALERT: This episode discusses plot points for Succession through season 4 , episode 5.

Companies discussed: WAYA, GOJO, BRK.A, BRK.B, DIS, AAPL, LMVUY, GE

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Jim Gillies

Production Assist: Mark Underwood
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Fri, 28 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Big Tech, Big Payments, Big Burrito

A huge week for earnings reveals a theme for investors: bigger is better

(0:21) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- Amazon's 1st-quarter revenue impressed but questions remain about AWS
- Alphabet's $70 billion share buyback plan (and 1st-quarter results)
- Visa and Mastercard beating Wall Street's expectations and providing insight into consumer spending
- The latest from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Chipotle

(19:11) Motley Fool senior analyst Tim Beyers talks with Jay Chaudhry, CEO of the cloud cybersecurity company Zscaler, about "zero trust" security, under-the-radar threats, and Zscaler's growing opportunity in federal government contracting.

(31:17) Matt and Jason share thoughts on UPS, advice for NFL draftees, and two stocks on their radar: Activision Blizzard and Cloudflare.

Stocks discussed: MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, META, V, MA, CMG, ZS, UPS, ATVI, NET

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Tim Beyers, Jay Chaudhry
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 27 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Meta's Big Pop, Google's New Threat

For the first time in a while, Facebook's parent company gave shareholders reason to smile.

(00:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Meta Platforms starting the fiscal year with a bang
- The Reality Labs division posting an operating loss of (gulp) $4 billion
- The current state of regional banks and the magic word he's seeing appear in the financial media

(14:25) How much of a threat is ChatGPT to Google's business? In this excerpt from the most recent episode of the Stock Advisor Roundtable podcast, Brian Stoffel talks with artificial intelligence expert Hamza Lebbar and Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner.

To hear the entire new episode of Stock Advisor Roundtable, click here:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6MWIz55NW99Av1l7w9FrXU?si=05100b2801f84f63&nd=1


Companies discussed: META, GOOG, GOOGL

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Brian Stoffel, Hamza Lebbar, Tom Gardner
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 26 Apr 2023 19:56:00 +0000

Microsoft-Activision Deal Blocked. Now What?

How hard will Microsoft and Activision-Blizzard fight to appeal the decision by UK regulators?

(00:21) Bill Barker discusses:
- Microsoft's strong 3rd-quarter results being overshadowed
- The $3 billion breakup fee Microsoft is now likely to have to pay
- Chipotle shares hitting a new all-time high after 1st-quarter profits were much higher than Wall Street was expecting

(15:48) As businesses look to cut costs, what does that mean for cloud spending? Tim Beyers and Tim White take a closer look at Amazon Web Services.

Companies discussed: MSFT, ATVI, SONY, NTDOY, CMG, AMZN, DDOG, ORCL, IBM

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Tim Beyers, Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey


Tue, 25 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

1 New Low, 1 New High

First Republic Bank and Pepsi are very different businesses with stocks moving in very different directions.

(00:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- First Republic Bank shares plummeting after terrible quarterly results and a surprisingly brief conference call
- Medpace Holdings crushing their 1st-quarter report and (once again) winning the guidance game
- Pepsi's stock hitting an all-time high after snacks fueled Q1 results

(16:03) Bill Mann joins Alison Southwick and Prof. Robert Brokamp to talk about the "new normal" of hybrid work.

Companies discussed: FRC, MEDP, PEP

Check out the newest episode of our premium podcast, Stock Advisor Roundtable!
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6MWIz55NW99Av1l7w9FrXU?si=05100b2801f84f63&nd=1

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Bill Mann
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 24 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

"It's a landscape in chaos right now."

Streaming video was an industry in flux even before this weekend's surprise news.

(00:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Ripple effects for Peacock in the wake of NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell resigning
- Disney, and the fate of NBCUniversal's minority stake in Hulu
- Johnson & Johnson aiming to raise $3.5 billion in the IPO spinoff of its consumer healthcare division

(11:31) Nick Sciple continues his conversation with anonymous Substack writer Doomberg about Tesla's plans for the future and investing for energy pinch points.

Companies discussed: CMCSA, DIS, JNJ, TSLA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Nick Sciple, Doomberg
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Sun, 23 Apr 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Doomberg on EU's Energy Crisis, Coals Future, and Nuclear Power

If a country cant get natural gas to power its needs, where does it turn next?

Doomberg is an anonymous team of energy writers working on the number one financial publication on Substack. Motley Fool Senior Analyst Nick Sciple caught up with Doomberg to discuss:
- Tradeoffs made during Europes energy crisis
- A durable shift for coal demand
- Countries shutting down (and investing in) nuclear energy
- An energy storyline that many analysts are underestimating

Company mentioned: PXD

Host: Nick Sciple
Guest: Doomberg
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sat, 22 Apr 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Boring Companies, Exciting Returns

A company that does boring things is almost as good as a company that has a boring name, and both together is terrific. --- Peter Lynch

Sierra Baldwin and Motley Fool Senior Analyst Sanmeet Deo discuss:
- Boring, but effective ways to invest
- ETFs that can build a portfolio
- 1 key metric for investors to watch
- The businesses of potato processing, car auctions, and paint manufacturing

Companies and ETFs discussed: SPY, VTI, VT, CPRT, LW, SHW, PTON

Host: Sierra Baldwin
Guest: Sanmeet Deo
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 21 Apr 2023 20:15:00 +0000

Netflix, Tesla, China's Growing Auto Industry, and Apple's Rise in India

As earnings season heats up in the U.S., investors had good reasons to keep their eyes on China and India. (0:21) Andy Cross and Jason Moser discuss: - Tesla's challenge with margin pressure - Intuitive Surgical's stock rising on strong 1st-quarter results and guidance - American Express continuing to catch on with Millennials and Gen Z - Shares of D.R. Horton, America's largest homebuilder, hitting a new all-time high - The latest from Netflix, P&G, Johnson & Johnson, and Lululemon (19:11) Motley Fool senior analyst Bill Mann discusses China's rise as an automotive exporter, Apple's growing presence in India, and why he's keeping an eye on mining companies in Brazil. (33:17) Andy and Jason discuss the growing business of tiny snacks and share two stocks on their radar: Tractor Supply and Amazon. Stocks discussed: NFLX, TSLA, ISRG, PG, AXP, JNJ, DHI, LULU, AAPL, GIS, TWNK, PEP, TSCO, AMZN Host: Chris Hill Guests: Andy Cross, Jason Moser, Bill Mann Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 20 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Another SPAC Bites The Dust

Buzzfeed was in a rough spot even before the ad market softened.

(00:21) Dylan Lewis discusses:
- The shuttering of Buzzfeed News, the award-winning journalism part of Buzzfeed's business
- What the ripple effects are for all investors (not just Buzzfeed shareholders)
- Why he's looking forward to hearing from Meta Platforms' management this earnings season

(10:55) Dylan talks with Bill Mann about Softbank's early investment in Alibaba and the takeaway for investors.

Companies discussed: BZFD, META, BABA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Dylan Lewis, Bill Mann
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 19 Apr 2023 19:59:00 +0000

Monster Beverage = Monster Stock

What does it take to deliver huge returns over a two-decade time frame? (00:21) Tim Beyers discusses: - Netflix's 1st-quarter results - Why he believes the new ad-tier model is off to a strong start - What Ted Sarandos said on the call that many investors may have missed - The shuttering of DVD.com (13:33) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma take a closer look at Monster Beverage, its eye-popping returns so far this century, and where it could go from here. Companies discussed: NFLX, MNST, ODFL Host: Chris Hill Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Tue, 18 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

"It's the vanilla ice cream of the banking sector."

Now that all of the Big Banks have reported earnings, what stands out?

(00:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Warren Buffett's recent comments about holding Bank of America
- CEO Brian Moynihan's persistence
- Johnson & Johnson's dividend hike and guidance boost
- Nvidia's unsurprising pricing power

(11:14) Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick answer your questions about mortgages, recessions, and employee stock options.

Companies discussed: BAC, JNJ, PG, NVDA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 17 Apr 2023 20:06:00 +0000

Advice to a Young(er) Investor

What do you wish you knew when you were just starting out investing?

(00:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Roblox sharing its last batch of monthly metrics
- Why the company still has a "glass half-full valuation"
- Thoughts for a relatively new investor with decades of investing ahead

(16:43) Asit Sharma talks with Bill Burns, CEO of Zebra Technologies, about the business of barcodes and robots in fulfillment centers.

Got a question about stocks?
Want to tell us about a stock you bought recently?
Email podcasts@fool.com

Companies discussed: RBLX, ZBRA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma, Bill Burns
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 16 Apr 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Ramit Sethi on Spending, Renting, and Financial Misconceptions

Money is often thought of on a transactional or restrictive basis. But, what if it could be a source of joy? Ramit Sethi is a best-selling author and the host of the Netflix series How to Get Rich. Alex Friedman caught up with him to discuss:
- The source of most financial conflicts in couples
- Renting vs. Buying
- Building the skill of spending money

Host: Alex Friedman
Guest: Ramit Sethi
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers


Sat, 15 Apr 2023 16:00:00 +0000

4 Monopolies Trading at Reasonable Prices

Investing doesnt have to be complicated. Buy a business with a wide moat and hold it for a really long time. Mary Long talks with Ron Gross about:
- How to tell if a business is a monopoly
- Laser-focused companies that have fended off competition
- Monopolies in railroads, trash, and surgical robots

Companies discussed: MSFT, WDFC, META, GOOG, GOOGL, DUK, UNP, WM

Host: Mary Long
Guest: Ron Gross
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Fri, 14 Apr 2023 20:11:00 +0000

Improving Inflation, Earnings Kickoff, and "Walmart Envy"

Investors cheered the steadily improving inflation story.

(0:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- How the current macro environment is what the Fed was aiming for
- JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo starting earnings season in a strong way
- Boeing's latest production challenge
- Key takeaways from Andy Jassy's shareholder letter
- Warner Bros Discovery's confusing rebrand of HBO Max

(19:11) Motley Fool senior analyst Tim Beyers weighs in on how board games and video games are finding success on the big screen, the future of movie theaters, and why "YouTube has an uncommon amount of power right now."

(33:47) Jason and Matt share two stocks on their radar: Airbnb and T. Rowe Price.

The new episode of Stock Advisor Roundtable, our premium podcast, is available exclusively on Spotify!
For more details go to Roundtable.Fool.com.

Stocks discussed: JPM, WFC, BA, AMZN, WMT, WBD, HAS, DIS, NFLX, AAPL, CMCSA, GOOG, GOOGL, ABNB, TROW

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser, Tim Beyers
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 13 Apr 2023 19:55:00 +0000

Why Did You Buy That Stock?

We asked the audience about recent stock purchases and they did not disappoint!

(00:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Delta Air Lines' 1st-quarter results
- Why Delta CEO Ed Bastian is not worried about consumer spending
- Highlights from Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's annual letter to shareholders

(12:29) What's a stock you've bought recently and why did you buy it? Ricky Mulvey and Jason Moser dig through some of what our listeners have been buying and discover companies with moats and one short of a teddy bear business.

Got a question about stocks?
Want to tell us about a stock you bought recently?
Email podcasts@fool.com

Companies discussed: DAL, AMZN, SCHW, OM, NKE, ASMLF, BOC, BBW

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, Jason Moser
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 12 Apr 2023 20:09:00 +0000

The Public Company Hiding In Plain Sight

You might be familiar with some of the brands, but the company's name is probably not on your radar.

(00:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- MTY Food Group's 1st-quarter results and why the restaurant franchisor is one of his long-term holdings
- The math behind MTY's success
- Why he's most curious about Medpace Holdings reporting earnings in late April

(17:45) Most businesses are paying their rent on time, but what happens when they want to renegotiate their leases? Ricky Mulvey talks with Deidre Woollard about the "Wall Of Debt" that's coming due and some more promising sectors in real estate for investors to keep an eye on.

Companies discussed: MTY, MTYFF, MEDP, SBNY

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Deidre Woollard
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Tue, 11 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

1 Key Metric for Earnings Season

If the upcoming earnings season tells us anything, it will be which companies are getting better (or worse) at managing their inventory.

(00:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- CarMax ending its fiscal year on a positive note
- The "tell" within CarMax's earnings report
- Why he's paying close attention to inventory levels

(11:23) It's Tax Season! Robert Brokamp and Alison Southwick examine the tax filing process and discuss one company benefitting from it.

Companies discussed: KMX, INTU

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Dep. Insp. Gen. Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Mon, 10 Apr 2023 20:06:00 +0000

A Bull Case for Walmart

Earnings season kicks off on Friday. What should investors be watching?

(00:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Key takeaways from Walmart's investor day event
- Why the retailer is an underrated capital allocator
- Investing observations from spring break
- What he'll be watching this earnings season

(16:47) Asit Sharma talks with PubMatic CEO Rajeev Goel about how the sell-side advertising platform is faring in a tougher macro-economic environment, as well as opportunities now.

Companies discussed: WMT, AMZN, ABNB, BIG, OLLI, PUBM, UBER

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma, Rajeev Goel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sat, 08 Apr 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Gambling Versus Investing

A survey from Lending Tree found that a majority of Americans thought investing was just as risky as gambling. And sure, the stock market can be a casino, but it doesnt have to be. Anand Chokkavelu and Ricky Mulvey discuss:

- The lines between gambling and investing, and when they get blurry.
- Games that Wall Street traders play.
- Positive sum, negative sum games, and how to know the difference.
- How Uncle Sam helps investors more than gamblers.

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Anand Chokkavelu
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Fri, 07 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

11 Stocks for Spring Cleaning Your Portfolio

If you clean out your closet once in a while, consider doing the same with your investment portfolio.

(0:21) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss:
- Stocks investors should consider trimming like hedges
- 2 stocks to throw out altogether
- Stocks that spark joy (a la Marie Kondo)
- Investments poised for a comeback
- Why Visa, Mastercard, and Berkshire-Hathaway are good stocks for a rainy day
- Actual cleaning tips!

(19:11) Motley Fool senior analyst Bill Mann talks with Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, about Chinas effect on inflation in the U.S. and the winners and losers in a world of higher interest rates.

To get your copy of our free report "Top Stocks For Rising Interest Rates" just go to fool.com/interest.

Stocks discussed: FIVE, DG, DLTR, OLLI, ZG, UA, COST, CDNS, XBI, PYPL, SQ, BRK, V, MA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Ron Gross, Bill Mann, Howard Marks
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 06 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

How Gen Z Spends

There are no style points in investing, and big brands continue to dominate teen spending habits.

(00:21) Dylan Lewis and Nick Sciple discuss:
- Piper Sandlers Generation Z survey about brands and spending.
- Tailwinds for Ulta Beauty, Spotify, and Nike.
- Investing in resale companies.
- How the competitive landscape shifted for upstart brands.

(10:52) Ricky Mulvey and Sanmeet Deo look at two health trends for investors to watch.
Companies discussed: NKE, SPOT, LULU, ULTA, WINA, TSX: ATZ, LTH, XPOF
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Nick Sciple, Sanmeet Deo
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 05 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

J&J Attempts a Texas Two-Step

Johnson & Johnson proposes a $9 billion settlement and Chewy hits a speedbump.
(00:21) Dylan Lewis and Tim Beyers discuss:
- The fallout from Johnson & Johnson's talc settlement.
- What the lawsuit could mean for J&J's spinoffs.
- Why the US Department of Justice is taking a look at Activision Blizzard.
(14:55) Ricky Mulvey and Emily Flippen take a closer look at Chewy's growth initiatives, and what they could mean for shareholders.
Companies discussed: JNJ, ATVI, CHWY
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Emily Flippen
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Tue, 04 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0000

The WWE Makes a Match

The WWE agreed to merge with UFC parent company, Endeavor Group, to form a new publicly traded company.
(00:21) Dylan Lewis and Jim Gillies discuss:
- The terms of the deal, and the media rights story.
- How Vince McMahon wins.
- Anti-trust questions for the new company.
(11:50) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp continue their conversation with Asit Sharma about evaluating CEOs, and an understated leader for investors to watch.
Companies discussed: WWE, OKTA, NVDA

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 03 Apr 2023 19:58:00 +0000

Teslas Competition

Tesla hit all time records for production and deliveries but left Wall Street unsatisfied.
(00:21) Deidre Woollard and Asit Sharma discuss:
- Rivians profitability problem.
- How Tesla is trying to push competitors into a bad spot.
- Strategy shifts at Netflix.
- If streamers have pricing power.
(13:11) Sierra Baldwin catches up with financial hype woman, Berna Anat, about her upcoming book, Money Out Loud: All the Financial Stuff No One Taught Us.
Companies discussed: TSLA, RIVN, NFLX, DIS
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Asit Sharma, Sierra Baldwin, Berna Anat
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Heather Horton


Sun, 02 Apr 2023 15:00:00 +0000

New Questions for Regional Banks

If a bank has to make a statement about its safety and soundness, thats usually a bad sign. Sultan Meghji is the former Chief Innovation Officer of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and a professor at the Pratt School of Engineering at Duke University. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Meghji to discuss: - Where Silicon Valley Bank and the FDIC faltered in the lead-up to the bank run - Ripple effects from the recent bank runs that investors should consider - Hindenburgs report on Block - How to pack a "go bag" for your savings Companies mentioned: JPM, SIVBQ, FRC, FIZN, SQ, SBUX, ORCL Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Sultan Meghji Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sat, 01 Apr 2023 16:00:00 +0000

David Gardner on Rule Breakers, Rule Makers, and Financial Freedom For All

Before you make the rules, you might have to break the rules.

Chris Hill talks with David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool and Chief Rule Breaker, about:

- How he taught his children to invest

- Memorable financial lessons from April Fools Day pranks in the past

- What happens to rule breaker companies when they grow

- The Fool Foundations mission and upcoming online event

To register for the free online event on April 14th with David Gardner, just go to foolfoundation.org.

Stocks discussed: DUOL, AAPL, AMZN, BABA, GOOG, META, DIS, SBUX

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: David Gardner

Producer: Ricky Mulvey

Engineer: Dan Boyd


Fri, 31 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Surprisingly Strong Q1, Stocks To Watch, Bezos' Next Move

The Nasdaq rose 17% in the 1st quarter, but we're not popping champagne just yet.

(0:21) Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- New inflation data and real estate concerns in Silicon Valley
- Why they're watching company margins and guidance updates over the next few weeks
- Disney shutting down its metaverse division
- Lululemon's (unsurprising) write-down of Mirror
- The latest from Walgreens, RH, and McCormick

(19:11) Brad Stone, head of Bloomberg's global tech coverage, weighs in on the state of affairs at Amazon, whether Jeff Bezos will return as CEO, and what to watch in the growing industry of AI and ChatGPT.

(32:40) Matt and Ron discuss Moderna's prospects, Pepsi's new logo, and share two stocks on their radar: ERP Properties and Wesco International.

To get your copy of our free report "Top Stocks For Rising Interest Rates" just go to fool.com/interest.

Stocks discussed: DIS, META, LULU, WBA, RH, MKC, AMZN, GOOG, MRNA, PEP, EPR, WCC

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Matt Argersinger, Brad Stone
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 30 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

3 Bank Stocks We Just Bought

It helps to know the difference between an investing opportunity and a falling knife.

(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- RH (aka, Restoration Hardware) wrapping up a rough fiscal year.
- How the retailer's great margins during the pandemic have gotten....less great.
- Electronic Arts and Roku joining the list of tech companies laying off employees.

(12:40) Jason Moser and Matt Frankel take a closer look at beaten-down bank stocks with strong fundamentals.

Companies discussed: RH, ROKU, EA, KRE, SCHW, SOFI, BAC, ALLY

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Wed, 29 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Tech's Past and Future

Gordon Moore and Moore's Law helped define a transformational period in technology. We reflect on his legacy and look at how the next chapter of tech leaders are trying to shape the future and the development of AI.
(00:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Moore's Law and Gordon Moore's mark on the tech industry and the world
- How semiconductors became such a critical industry
- Intel's disciplined approach to capital allocation

AI Open Letter:
https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/ai-open-letter/


(15:46) Nick Sciple and Tim Beyers go head to head in our Market Madness Championship. Who will cut down the nets?
Companies discussed: INTC, MDNY, BWXT
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Nick Sciple
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Tue, 28 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

How to Evaluate a CEO

Before you buy shares of a company, what should investors look for in a CEO?

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Alibaba announcing its intention to split into 6 separate companies
- Whether Amazon and Alphabet are discussing (or hearing from investment banks about) the same thing
- Why he's watching where these companies raise money for their eventual IPOs

(11:05) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Asit Sharma about his framework for evaluating leadership.

Companies discussed: BABA, ASML, AMZN, GOOG, JD, T, NOW, NVDA, SFIX, DOCN

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Mon, 27 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

First Citizens Bank Soars on SVB Asset Purchase

Shares of the Raleigh, NC-based bank rose more than 50%. (0:20) Jason Moser discusses: - First Citizens Bank buying (at a discount) $72 billion worth of Silicon Valley Bank's assets - Four tools (two free, two with a subscription fee) he uses in his investing research - The balance of weighing a company's information with the financial media's reporting on that information (10:30) Buck Hartzell talks with Michael Kehoe, CEO of Kinsale Capital Group, about the specialty insurance landscape and his company's competitive advantage. Send your investing questions to podcasts@fool.com Companies discussed: FCNCA, KNSL Host: Chris Hill Guests: Jason Moser, Buck Hartzell, Michael Kehoe Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sun, 26 Mar 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Scams, Secrets, and the Future of Fraud

Even if there are not many obvious warning signs, a gut feeling can tell you when something seems amiss.

Kelly Richmond Pope is the Dr. Barry Jay Epstein Endowed Professor of Forensic Accounting at DePaul University and the author of the book Fool Me Once: Scams, Stories, and Secrets from the Trillion-Dollar Fraud Industry. Pope joined Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- How to talk to aging relatives about fraud
- What your gut feeling can tell you about potential scams
- What generative AI means for the future of fraud

Company discussed: WFC

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Kelly Richmond Pope
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Sat, 25 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000

When Investing is Irrational

Should you save in a 401(k) or is it better to keep that money available in cash?

Justin Richmond is the host of new podcast Started from the Bottom. where he interviews successful people who grew up on the outside people of color and people who grew up in a world where almost nobody went to college. Hes also the co-host of the popular music podcast "Broken Record" podcast alongside Rick Rubin, Bruce Headlam, and Malcolm Gladwell.

Ricky Mulvey caught up with Richmond to discuss:
- Learning the unwritten rules of business
- How class and upbringing affects attitudes towards money
- The relationship between musicians, Live Nation Entertainment, and dynamic pricing

Company discussed: LYV

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Justin Richmond
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Annie Franks


Fri, 24 Mar 2023 20:33:00 +0000

TikTok Under Fire

The Fed's quarter-percent interest rate hike went as expected. The CEO of TikTok's testimony on Capitol Hill did not.

(0:21) Emily Flippen and Ron Gross discuss:
- Fear of a recession vs. fear of a banking contagion
- Whether social media giants like Meta Platforms and Snap stand to benefit from the drama around TikTok
- Ford Motor's plan to go from losing billions on EVs to being profitable by the end of 2026
- The latest from Block, KB Home, and Accenture

(19:11) Emily and Ron continue their analysis of the week's big investing stories, including:
- Recent struggles from three pet companies: Chewy, Petco, and Trupanion
- Apple's plan to spend $1 billion per year on theatrical releases
- The latest from Nike, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, and Darden Restaurants
- Two stocks on their radar: Globus Medical and Donnelly Financial Solutions

To get your copy of our free report "Top Stocks For Rising Interest Rates" just go to fool.com/interest.

Stocks discussed: SNAP, META, GOOG, SQ, KBH, F, CAN, CHWY, WOOF, TRUP, NKE, OLLI, DRI, SBUX, IMAX, CNK, AMC, AAPL, GMED, DFIN

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross
Engineer: Steve Broido


Thu, 23 Mar 2023 19:57:00 +0000

The Rate Hike Wall Street Expected

Just because things go as expected doesn't mean the ripple effects aren't surprising.
(0:20) Andy Cross discusses:
- The Fed's 0.25% rate hike
- Unfortunate timing around Chairman Powell's press conference and Sec. Yellen's public testimony
- Why he's going to be paying more attention to annual reports in the coming weeks
(10:20) Nick Sciple and Jim Gillies face off in the semi-finals of our stock investing version of March Madness! Choose the winner by casting your vote in our Twitter poll @MotleyFoolMoney!
Companies discussed: RMAX, BWXT
Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Andy Cross, Nick Sciple, Jim Gillies
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Steve Broido, Rick Engdahl

Wed, 22 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Nike Looks Expensive, Some REITs Look Cheap

Inventory problems persist for the athletic apparel leader, but the latest results show improvement.

(0:20) Matt Argersinger discusses:
- Nike beating Wall Street's low expectations in the 3rd quarter
- Why being a higher-end discretionary consumer business puts Nike at risk
- How the banking drama is putting some commercial real estate businesses in peril while four REITs appear to have been oversold

(8:20) Kirsten Guerra and Tim Beyers face off in the semi-finals of our stock investing version of March Madness!

Companies discussed: NKE, MAA, ARE, O, PLD, GM, MNDY

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Kirsten Guerra, Tim Beyers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Tue, 21 Mar 2023 20:25:00 +0000

Inflation vs. Banking Drama

Which one is Fed Chief Jay Powell weighing more in advance of Wednesday afternoon's announcement about interest rates?

(0:20) Bill Mann discusses:
- The current state of play in the banking industry
- Risks of trouble spreading to other industries
- What Jay Powell is (probably) focusing on as he weighs the next decision around interest rates

(10:37) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer your questions about asset allocation, company spin-offs, and bond ETFs.

Companies discussed: UBS, CS, WBD

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 20 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Meanwhile, in Switzerland...

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- UBS buying Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion
- The ripple effects of everyone checking with their bank
- Why Amazon's latest layoff announcement has him looking at the revenue-per-employee metric

(13:58) Ricky Mulvey catches up with Jacob Goldstein, host of the podcast "What's Your Problem?" to talk about bank runs, why they happen, and how businesses could potentially prepare for them.

Companies discussed: UBS, CS, AMZN, SIVB

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Jacob Goldstein
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Sun, 19 Mar 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Vince McMahons Advantage

If you hate Vince McMahon, then maybe youll buy a tee-shirt for his rival. And thats a great outcome for the WWE.

Abraham Josephine Riesman is the author of Ringmaster: Vince McMahon and the Unmaking of America. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Riesman to discuss:

- Vince McMahons early life as a pretty nice kid, and the parts of his story he doesnt want wrestling fans to know.
- WWEs potential deal with the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund.
- The Montreal Screwjob, and the groundwork for the modern WWE.
- A story about Saddam Husseins side job as a wrestling promoter, Andre the Giant, and a golden gun.

Company discussed: WWE

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Abraham Josephine Riesman
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sat, 18 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Waze Co-Founder on Entrepreneurship, Autonomous Vehicles, and ChatGPT

When venture capital investors walk into a pitch meeting, they usually know if theyre saying yes before anyone starts talking.

Uri Levine is the co-founder of Waze and the author of Fall in Love with the Problem, Not the Solution: A Handbook for Entrepreneurs. Alex Friedman caught up with Levine to talk about:

- The early days of Waze.
- One way to know if a company will die.
- What happens, behind the scenes, when venture capital investors choose investments.
- ChatGPT, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving.

Company discussed: GOOG, GOOGL

Host: Alex Friedman
Guest: Uri Levine
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 17 Mar 2023 20:22:00 +0000

The Fed's Next Move, ESPNs Future

Inflation data and the state of play in the banking industry has investors wondering: What will the Fed decide next week about interest rates?

(0:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- First Republic getting $30 billion in deposits from 11 major banks
- The latest CPI and PPI numbers continuing the trend of cooling inflation
- Whether the Federal Reserve should raise rates next week (and if so, by how much) or hit the pause button
- The latest from FedEx, Adobe, Lennar, and Williams-Sonoma

(19:11) John Ourand from Sports Business Journal and the "Sports Media Podcast" analyzes the economics of March Madness, why he's bullish on the upcoming MLB season, and Disney CEO Bob Iger's latest thinking on ESPN.

(32:13) Matt and Jason discuss Google raising the price of YouTube TV and share two stocks on their radar: Charles Schwab and Zebra Technologies.

Stocks discussed: SIVB, FRC, BAC, JPM, WFC, C, PNC, MTB, FDX, ADBE, LEN, WSM, FOX, WBD, PARA, DIS, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, SCHW, ZBRA

To get your copy of our free report "Top Stocks For Rising Interest Rates" just go to fool.com/interest.

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, John Ourand
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 16 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Retail & Tech Try To Transform

Adobe wants to be a customer experience platform, and a discount retailer is upscaling.


(0:21) Deidre Woollard and Asit Sharma discuss:
- Adobes quarter, and issues acquiring Figma.
- Tech companies rushing to launch generative AI.
- Five Below converting stores to Five Beyond.
- Labor issues for Dollar General.


Plus, (15:50) stock market madness continues. Bill Mann and Nick Sciple face off to pitch a stock in a better buy debate.
Companies discussed: ADBE, FIVE, DG, PAC, BWXT

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Asit Sharma, Bill Mann, Nick Sciple
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 15 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Big Telecoms vs. Deadpool

Ryan Reynolds is joining the T-Mobile team, as Verizon and AT&T adjust.

(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- T-Mobile buys the parent company of Mint Mobile in a cash and stock deal worth $1.3 billion
- How (and when) Mint's business could be accretive to T-Mobile
- Why the ripple effect from Silicon Valley Bank's situation will hit potential IPOs and what it means for investors

(14:05) Our stock version of March Madness continues! Kirsten Guerra and Jason Moser face off to make the case on why their stock is a better buy right now.

Companies discussed: TMUS, VZ, T, SIVB, GM, TSLA, OM

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Kirsten Guerra, Jason Moser
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Tue, 14 Mar 2023 20:17:00 +0000

Is Buffett Targeting This Bank?

Just because the "Oracle of Omaha" has been quiet lately doesn't mean he isn't sizing up his next big buy.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The latest CPI numbers and the current state of play in the banking industry
- One bank that fits the description of something Warren Buffett might be interested in
- Meta Platforms announcing another round of layoffs

(14:58) Sanmeet Deo and Tim Beyers face off against one another with stocks they believe are a better buy right now.

Companies discussed: FRC, SCHW, SIVB, PNC, META, XPOF, MNDY

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Sanmeet Deo, Tim Beyers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Mon, 13 Mar 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Big Banks Sure Are Quiet These Days

Regulators seized another bank over the weekend, as the federal government came up with a plan to use money from a fund paid into by U.S. banks to make SVB's depositors whole again.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Signature Bank failing and shares of First Republic Bank falling 60%.
- Why "bailout" is probably not the right word to describe what's happening
- How big banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are gaining strength simply by going about their business

(11:20) We're celebrating our own version of "March Madness" by having analysts face off, bracket-style, as they go head-to-head over which stock is a better buy. Jim Gillies and Jim Mueller kick off the week with a biotech software company and a well-known real estate broker.

Companies discussed: SIVB, SBNY, FRC, SCHW, BAC, JPM, SDGR, RMAX

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Jim Gillies, Jim Mueller
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers


Sun, 12 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Michael Lewis on Stock Market Overconfidence and Revisiting Moneyball

One sign of a true expert is they often say I dont know.

Best-selling author Michael Lewis wrote classics like The Big Short, Liar's Poker, and Moneyball. He also hosts the podcast Against The Rules. Chris Hill talked with Lewis last year for an episode we published on May 20, 2022. Due to time constraints we had to leave some parts of the conversation out of that episode, so we're bringing them to you now! Hill and Lewis discuss:
- Unintended consequences of Moneyball
- Why single men fare worse in the stock market
- How Iceland responded to the Great Recession
- How to spot true experts

"Boys Will Be Boys" paper: https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/gender/BoysWillBeBoys.pdf

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Michael Lewis
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sat, 11 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Is Investing a Game?

In everyday life, your value system is complicated and rich. Games make that system simple, and you know exactly how well youve done.

C. Thi Nguyen is a philosophy professor at University of Utah and author of the book Games: Agency As Art. Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner caught up with Nguyen to discuss:
- The bright and dark sides of gamification
- How Twitter changed the way we communicate
- Good, bad, and evil games

Todays conversation comes from a recent episode of David's weekly podcast, Rule Breaker Investing. To hear the entire show, click here:
https://www.fool.com/podcasts/rule-breaker-investing/2023-02-15-from-twister-to-twitter-games-and-c

Host: David Gardner
Guest: C. Thi Nguyen
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 10 Mar 2023 21:13:00 +0000

Not Too Big To Fail

In a wild end to the week, Silicon Valley Bank was shut down by regulators in the biggest bank failure since the Great Recession.

(0:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- February's jobs report (and potential ripple effects)
- The stunning collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
- Vail Resorts staffing up to meet demand
- How the "Lipstick Effect" is benefitting Ulta Beauty
- The latest from Docusign, and Dick's Sporting Goods

(19:11) Nell Minow, Vice Chair of Value Edge Advisors, offers a prescription for making stock buyback plans more shareholder-friendly, thoughts on ESG guidelines, and predictions for the Academy Awards.

(35:15) Jason and Matt share two stocks on their radar: InterDigital and Global Industrial Co.

Stocks discussed: SIVB, MKL, DOCU, MTN, ULTA, DKS, AMC, DIS, GOOG, IDCC, GIC

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Nell Minow
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 09 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000

"This one's gonna leave a mark."

(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Why shares of SVB Financial Group are plunging more than 45%
- The reasons he's a fan of AerCap Holdings' secondary offering

(15:24) Ricky Mulvey talks with investigative reporter Marshall Zelinger about Xcel Energy and the fundamentals of being a monopoly.

Companies discussed: SIVB, AER, XEL

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Marshall Zelinger
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 08 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000

$30 Million Worth of Bobbleheads

Sometimes the most cost-effective way to deal with inventory glut is to simply throw it away.

(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Shares of Crowdstrike rising as the cybersecurity company closed out the fiscal year on a strong note
- Taking the "basket approach" to cybersecurity stocks
- Funko Pop's surprising solution to having too much inventory

(12:13) Mary Long talks with Blackrock managing director Gargi Chaudhuri about the case for bonds, and some economic predictions her team made in 2022.

Companies discussed: CRWD, FNKO

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, Mary Long, Gargi Chaudhuri
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers


Tue, 07 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000

New Flavors of FIRE

The Fed Chief goes to Capitol Hill, Dick's Sporting Goods crushes expectations, and there's more than one type of FIRE.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- The market's reaction to Chairman Powell's testimony in front of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee
- Shares of Dick's Sporting Goods popping 11% on same-store sales growth that more than doubled expectations
- How inventory management is a key in Dick's Sporting Goods recent success

(12:33) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Megan Brinsfield about the FIRE (Financially Independent, Retire Early) movement.

Companies discussed: DKS, HD, LOW, TGT, WMT

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Megan Brinsfield
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl

Motley Fool Wealth Management (MWFM) is an SEC registered investment adviser. MWFM, as affiliate of The Motley Fool LLC (TMF) is a separate legal entity, and all financial planning and discretionary asset management services for our clients are made independently by the financial planners and asset managers at MFWM. No TMF analysts are involved in the investment decision making or daily operations of MFWM. MFWM does not attempt to track any TMF services.

Megan Brinsfield is the Director of Financial Planning at MFWM. The comments and ideas presented by the speaker in this podcast are solely those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent those of MFWM or any of its affiliates. This discussion is for informational purposes only and should not be construed an investment or financial planning advice or recommendations. Certain statements may be deemed forward-looking, however there is no guarantee of any outcome. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


Mon, 06 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000

What's Your Investing Thesis?

It's always a good idea to know why you're about to invest in a business.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Short-term catalysts, long-term trends, and why it's ok to invest in both
- The importance of understanding how a business makes money
- Reasons to sell a stock

(10:17) Deidre Woollard looks back at the bear market of 2020 with Liz Hoffman, author of the new book "Crash Landing: The Inside Story Of How The World's Biggest Companies Survived An Economy On The Brink".

Companies discussed: ABND GS, HLT

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Deidre Woollard, Liz Hoffman
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Heather Horton, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 05 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Paramount: The House of Redstone

Its one thing to hear that money doesnt buy happiness. It's another to find that out after wiring $90 million dollars to two separate romantic partners in one afternoon. James B. Stewart and Rachel Abrams are the co-authors of Unscripted: The Epic Battle for a Media Empire and the Redstone Family Legacy. They joined Catie Peiper to discuss: - How billionaires try to bend reality - If Paramount chair Shari Redstone can innovate in a new media landscape - Problems with CEO succession at media companies Companies discussed: PARA, DIS Host: Catie Peiper Guests: James B. Stewart, Rachel Stewart Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sat, 04 Mar 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Michelle Singletary on Investing, Retirement, and the Lies We Tell Ourselves About Money

Michelle Singletary is a best-selling author and Loeb Award-winning writer. She also pens The Color of Money, a nationally syndicated personal finance column which appears in The Washington Post. Robert Brokamp caught up with Singletary to discuss:
- Why people fall for Ponzi schemes
- If you should pay off your mortgage before retirement
- Why we often lie about spending habits

Host: Robert Brokamp
Guest: Michelle Singletary
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Annie Franks


Fri, 03 Mar 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Software, Retail, and Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks

When the overwhelming majority of your business is in the United States, you have to have a plan for growing internationally. Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks and his team have just such a plan.

(0:21) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss:
- Whether Costco is ready to increase membership fees
- Salesforce focusing more on profitability
- Seeing light at the end of Okta's tunnel
- How "it's all ball bearings" for C3.AI
- The latest from Target, Lowe's, Best Buy, and Zoom Video

(19:11) Trex CEO Bryan Fairbanks discusses his company's opportunities to expand outside the U.S., the housing market, and what informs the guidance Trex offers to Wall Street.

(35:00) Jason and Ron return to share two stocks on their radar: Samsara and T. Rowe Price.

Get a copy of our new free report, Top Stocks For Rising Interest Rates, by going to fool.com/interest!

Stocks discussed: COST, CRM, TGT, LOW, OKTA, AI, BBY, ZM, TREX, IOT, TROW

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser, Bryan Fairbanks
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 02 Mar 2023 20:14:00 +0000

Salesforce Increases Its Focus (and Buybacks)

(0:20) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Shares of Salesforce popping 12% on better-than-expected 4th-quarter results
- How Salesforce has more focus but is still a business in transition
- The doubling of the company's share buyback program

(11:30) Jason Moser and Matt Frankel discuss the decline of the "Nice to have" economy.

Companies discussed: CRM, PTON, NFLX, DIS, SFIX, FIGS

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Wed, 01 Mar 2023 20:57:00 +0000

4 Stocks We Just Bought

Lowe's continues a recent trend from major retailers.

(0:20) Bill Mann discusses:
- Solid 4th-quarter results from Lowe's being overshadowed by their guidance for the new fiscal year
- The fact that some people on Wall Street are still surprised by cautious guidance
- The relative attractiveness of Lowe's stock

(10:00) Yasser El-Shimy and Ricky Mulvey share four stocks they bought recently.

Companies discussed: LOW, HD, WMT, TGT, ARHS, ENPH, BIG, MAA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Yasser El-Shimy
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Tue, 28 Feb 2023 20:00:00 +0000

Target's Improving Inventory

After a particularly rough 2022, Target is getting back to basics.

(0:20) Matt Argersinger discusses:
- Zoom Video's slowing revenue growth
- How Zoom's brand gives it an advantage against bigger competitors
- Target beating expectations with household items, groceries, and a better management of its inventory

(11:00) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp take a closer look at tech layoffs in 2023 and one company that's managed them well.

To watch the 30-minute deep dive on dividend investing go to MasterClass.Fool.com before midnight on Wednesday!

Companies discussed: ZM, MSFT, GOOG, TGT, WMT, HD, AAPL

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Mon, 27 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Buffett Brings The Heat

It's not often that the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway gets spicy with his annual letter but he did this time.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Buffett's vigorous defense of share buyback programs
- How Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio reflects Buffett's beliefs on share buybacks
- McDonald's expanding its test of Krispy Kreme doughnuts to 160 locations, and what it could mean for investors

(14:45) Toby Bordelon and Jose Najarro engage in a bull vs. bear debate over one of the most popular gaming apps: Roblox

On a brand-new bonus episode of the Stock Advisor Roundtable podcast, Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner shares his 10 stocks for making money in the market! Motley Fool premium members, click here to link your Motley Fool membership to a Spotify account and begin listening to this exclusive new podcast!
https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/4056/coverage/introducing-stock-advisor-roundtable/

And if you're not a member, you can get a preview of the show and learn how to get access here on Spotify!
https://open.spotify.com/show/5qS2aRb3W5kAlffrVyok3z?si=cbdeaf17572144c3&nd=1

Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, AAPL, AXP, KO, MCD, DNUT, RBLX

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Toby Bordelon, Jose Najarro
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Sun, 26 Feb 2023 16:00:00 +0000

The Resilience of Black Wall Street

One of the most important events of Americas economic and racial history is one that hasnt been discussed often.

Gary Lee is the managing editor of the Oklahoma Eagle, a Tulsa-based and black-owned media company. Lee joined The Motley Fools Bill Mann to talk about:

- The history of Black Wall Street, and the rise of the Greenwood community.
- The legacy of the Tulsa Race Massacre and Tulsas path forward.

Host: Bill Mann
Guest: Gary Lee
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sat, 25 Feb 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Value Hunting

Motley Fool Senior Analyst Rich Greifner joins Ricky Mulvey for a primer on value investing, or trying to find out how much a company is worth, and buying them for less than that amount. They discuss:

- If theres even a difference between growth and value investing.
- Signs that a business is mispriced.
- How investors can find mispriced businesses.
- Why companies trade below their accounting-based worth.
- If there even needs to be a distinction between growth and value investing.
- Unpopular companies that may be worth your attention.

Companies discussed: META, WCC

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest:Rich Greifner
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 24 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Surprising Earnings, Conservative Management

There's a lot to analyze in this episode, including revenue to the upside, CEOs waving the caution flag, and Hobbits.

(0:21) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss:
- Nvidia's results and place in the AI universe
- Block surprising Wall Street with strong 4th-quarter revenue
- Mercadolibre's enviable free cash flow
- The latest from Walmart, Home Depot, Booking Holdings, Etsy, and Wayfair

(19:11) Emily and Jason continue the earnings analysis and discuss:
- Warner Bros. Discovery growing subscribers and cutting costs
- The latest from Intuit, Teladoc Health, Domino's Pizza, and Shake Shack
- Their most recent stock purchases
- Two stocks on their radar: Adobe and ANSYS

Looking for even more stock research and recommendations?
Check out the details on our Epic Bundle membership at Epicstart.Fool.com

Stocks discussed: NVDA, WMT, SQ, HD, BKNG, ETSY, MELI, W, INTU, TDOC, WBD, DPZ, TWLO, SPOT, NKE, SHAK, ADBE, ANSS

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Emily Flippen
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 23 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Etsy's "Jedi Mind Trick"

There's a lot of three-year comparisons getting thrown around. Is that what investors should focus on?

(1:00) Dylan Lewis and Tim Beyers discuss:
- Etsy's short-term and long-term story.
- The growth levers for Etsy moving forward.
- The trends picking up Nvidia and the hype baked into its rally.
- One shiny, distraction for investors watching the chipmaker.

Plus, (19:02) Maya Lau, host of the podcast "Other People's Pockets" joins Sierra Baldwin to discuss her new show and what she's learned from having conversations about salary, economic class, and careers.

Companies discussed: ETSY, NVDA

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Sierra Baldwin, Maya Lau
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks, Annie Franks


Wed, 22 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

What Happened To Intel?

In late January CEO Pat Gelsinger assured Wall Street that Intel was "committed" to its dividend. Today that commitment changed.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Intel cutting its dividend by 65%
- Gelsinger's potential rationale for the cut
- How else the company plans to invest the money

(8:00) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer more of your questions about home buying, pensions, and investing strategy.

Companies discussed: INTC, AMD

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Tue, 21 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

2023: The Year of Cautious Guidance

If the management teams from Home Depot and Walmart had anything in common today, it was their guidance for the year ahead. (0:21) Jason Moser discusses: - Home Depot shares falling 5% after its first revenue miss since 2019 - The capital allocation flex of raising wages and HD's dividend - Walmart crushing its holiday quarter thanks to groceries (11:15) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer your questions about investment fees, insurance, and saving in a Roth IRA. Companies discussed: HD, WMT Host: Chris Hill Guests: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sun, 19 Feb 2023 16:01:00 +0000

PJ Vogt on AI, VR, and Tech Cycles

Once a technology is released into the wild, it doesnt go back in the bottle. Except in one instance. PJ Vogt is the host of Crypto Island and an eponymous show, Weekly. You may have also heard him on Reply All or This American Life. Ricky Mulvey caught up with him to discuss: - The wild present and future for artificial intelligence - How virtual reality parallels early internet chat rooms - Incentives and tradeoffs in the decarbonization movement - The downfall of Flappy Bird Companies mentioned: META, GOOG, GOOGL, MSFT, TSLA, NTOIY Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: PJ Vogt Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sat, 18 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000

iBuying, Real Estate Investing, Home Inventory

When Zillow and Opendoor stopped their iBuying programs, home buyers didnt find any deals. So, where did those homes go? Jamil Damji is the co-founder of KeyGlee, a real estate investment and wholesale company with more than 75 franchises. Hes also the star of Triple Digit Flip on A&E. Deidre Woollard caught up with Damji to discuss: - Why housing supply remains low, and its implications for homebuilders - How rents have stayed relatively stable - One player thats fundamentally changed real estate investing -The changing role of the landlord Companies discussed: ZG, OPEN Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Jamil Damji Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 17 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

The (Wall Street) Hits Keep On Coming

It was another big week of earnings results (and surprises).

(0:21) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss:
- Shopify's guidance outweighing its results
- Airbnb nearly doubling profit expectations
- Record revenue for The Trade Desk
- Shares of Roku popping more than 25%
- The latest from Marriott, Twilio, Cisco Systems, and Zillow Group

(19:11) Jason and Ron keep the earnings coverage going and discuss:
- Boston Beer surprising Wall Street
- Outset Medical's latest results
- The state of Microsoft's bid to buy Activision Blizzard
- The latest from Coca-Cola, Roblox, Chipotle, and Alphabet
- Two stocks on their radar: Etsy and Paramount Resources

Looking for even more stock research and recommendations?
Check out the details on our Epic Bundle membership at Epicstart.Fool.com

Stocks discussed: SHOP, ABNB, TTD, MAR, TWLO, CSCO, ROKU, ZG, SAM, KO, OM, RBLX, ATVI, MSFT, CMG, SG, GOOG, ETSY, POU

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser
Engineers: Steve Broido, Rick Engdahl


Thu, 16 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

The Once & Future Zillow

After spending a year getting rid of its iBuying business, how should investors regard Zillow Group?

(0:21) Jim Mueller discusses:
- How Zillow is (in some ways) at a fresh starting point
- The growing skepticism around iBuying as a profitable business
- 1 thing to watch when Redfin reports after the closing bell

(9:25) Ricky Mulvey and Sanmeet Deo discuss companies that are flying under Wall Street's radar, in part because of where they're located.

Companies discussed: ZG, OPEN, RDFN, LULU, TSCO, SHAK, WINA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Mueller, Sanmeet Deo
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Wed, 15 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Answers from Airbnb, Questions for Upstart

If revenge travel was supposed to slow down, then AirBnB hasn't noticed.
Dylan Lewis and Tim Beyers (0:15) discuss:

- A very healthy quarter for AirBnB, and how the travel company continues to grow its footprint.
- AirBnB's $1.5 billion "waste of capital."
- Upstart's not too bad quarter, and questionable use of its balance sheet.
- One thing to do whenever you buy a stock.

(17:02) Bill Mann and Ricky Mulvey look at Hindenburg Research's report on Adani Group, and a historic parallel that offers some insight for today.

Companies discussed: ABNB, UPST, ADANIENT

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Bill Mann
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Tue, 14 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Big Macro & Big Red

Once again the monthly CPI report got Wall Street's attention.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:- How the Federal Reserve is working without precise instruments
- Why no one wants surprises from the Fed
- Higher prices in the core division fueling Coca-Cola's 4th-quarter revenue

(12:00) In this blast-from-the-past segment from 2018, Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp celebrate Valentine's Day by discussing money as a source of conflict for couples.

Stocks discussed: KO, PEP

Looking for even more stock research and recommendations?
Check out the details on our Epic Bundle membership at Epicstart.Fool.com

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl


Mon, 13 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Twilio's Layoffs, Spotify's Strategy

For the second time in five months, Twilio announces a round of layoffs.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- How Twilio is cutting costs as they grow
- What to watch when the company reports earnings on Wednesday afternoon
- Memorable ads from Super Bowl 57

(13:20) Ricky Mulvey talks with Bloomberg entertainment reporter Lucas Shaw about the state of Spotify's business, its podcasting strategy, and whether they need to raise subscription fees.

Stocks discussed: TWLO, BKNG, WDAY, GOOG, DEO, SPOT, AAPL

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Lucas Shaw
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Sun, 12 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000

Beth Kindig on AI, Semiconductors, and Tech Cycles

ChatGPT is getting plenty of attention, but there are other uses for artificial intelligence that investors should watch. Beth Kindig is the lead technology analyst for the I/O fund. Deidre Woollard caught up with Kindig to discuss:

- Where we are in the cloud adoption cycle
- A key narrative playing out in semiconductor earnings
- What to learn from companies that went public too quickly

Companies discussed: MSFT, NVDA, TSM, META, AMD

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Beth Kindig
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Heather Horton


Sat, 11 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000

Lies My Income Statement Told Me

Whats the point of reading a companys earnings report? Cant AI do that job? Patrick Badolato, PhD, CPA is an Associate Professor at The University of Texas at Austin, McCombs School of Business where he teaches accounting and financial statement analysis. Badolato joined Ricky Mulvey to discuss: - How Walmart, Rent the Runway, and Peloton adjust earnings (and what it means for shareholders) - Why investors should follow a companys operating income - The pros and pitfalls of GAAP metrics - A better way to count stock-based comp. Companies Discussed: WMT, RENT, PTON Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Patrick Badolato Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 10 Feb 2023 20:58:00 +0000

NFL Predictions, AI Competitions

Big changes could be coming to the NFL playoffs.

(0:21) Emily Flippen and Andy Cross discuss:
- The growing AI battle between Microsoft and Alphabet
- Lyft shares falling 35%
- PayPal CEO Dan Schulman announcing his retirement
- CVS Health buying a primary care business for $10 billion
- The latest from Disney, Cloudflare, Chipotle, and Pepsi

(19:11) Andrew Brandt, former NFL executive and director of Villanova University's Moorad Center of Sports Law, discusses the business health of the NFL, how the playoffs may change, and his prediction for a blowout Super Bowl 57.

(34:40) Andy and Emily share two stocks on their radar: Domino's Pizza and Boot Barn.

Looking for even more stock research and recommendations?
Check out the details on our Epic Bundle membership at Epicstart.Fool.com

Stocks discussed: MSFT, GOOG, DIS, LYFT, UBER, PYPL, NET, CMG, CVS, PEP, DPZ, BOOT

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Andy Cross, Andrew Brandt
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 09 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Disney Pops, Alphabet Drops

Disneys latest results and plans were just what Wall Street wanted to hear.

(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- How the parks & experiences division drove Disneys 1st-quarter results
- ESPN+ being a bright spot among streaming properties
- Alphabet shares falling over a botched AI demo and concerns about Microsoft

(13:20) Just in time for Valentines Day, Jason Hall and Ryan Henderson engage in a bull vs. bear debate over Match Group.

Motley Fool premium members, click here to link your Motley Fool membership to a Spotify account and check out the latest episode of our exclusive podcast, Stock Advisor Roundtable!

And if you're not a member, you can get a preview of the show and learn how to get access here on Spotify!

Stocks discussed: DIS, MSFT, GOOG, MTCH

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Tim Beyers, Jason Hall, Ryan Henderson
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Wed, 08 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Record Ad $$$ for SB 57

Companies are shelling out big bucks to get your attention during the big game.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Chipotle maintaining their stance on prices
- Dutch payment processor Adyen dealing with higher costs
- Uber posting a profit in the 4th quarter thanks to the company's investments

(10:30) Dylan Lewis talks with Ad Age editor Jeanine Poggi about some of the major brands looking to get your attention before, during, and after Super Bowl 57.

Stocks discussed: CMG, ADYEN, UBER, FOXA, COIN, NFLX, TAP, BUD

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Dylan Lewis, Jeannie Poggi
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Tue, 07 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

The AI Land Grab Has Started

Microsoft's AI event is only the latest sign of the hottest area of tech.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- CEO Satya Nadella hailing "a new day in search"
- Shares of C3AI, an enterprise AI platform company, doubling in the past five weeks
- Zoom Video announcing it's laying off 15% of employees

(12:00) Robert Brokamp talks with former Pittsburgh Steelers lineman Jonathan Scott about playing in Super Bowl 45, managing an irregular income, and other takeaways from his book "The Winning Playbook: Strategies for Life on and off the Field".

Stocks discussed: MSFT, GOOG, AMD, AI, ZM

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Robert Brokamp, Jonathan Scott
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Mon, 06 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Why Do Casinos Lose Money?

If the house always wins, why are gambling companies having trouble turning a profit?

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Privately-owned restaurant companies Cava Group and Panera Brands mulling a return to the public markets
- How Panera has evolved since its last time as a public company
- A key metric he's watching when Chipotle reports earnings on Tuesday afternoon

(9:40) Ricky Mulvey and Matt Frankel discuss the struggles gambling businesses having making money and one business breaking the trend.

Stocks discussed: CMG, PDYPY, MGM, DKNG, CHDN

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl


Sun, 05 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000

Domonique Foxworth on NFL Owners, Investing, and Keys to the Big Game

What's more challenging: facing off against a wide receiver or a room full of NFL owners?

Domonique Foxworth made an impact on the field as an NFL cornerback for six season, and an impact off the field as the youngest player to be elected vice president of the NFL Players Association Executive Committee. Chris Hill caught up with him to discuss:
- Negotiating with NFL owners
- What led him to get his MBA from Harvard Business School
- The enduring popularity of the NFL
- What he will be watching during Super Bowl 57 to give him a sense of whether Philadelphia or Kansas City is in control of the game

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Domonique Foxworth
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sat, 04 Feb 2023 17:01:00 +0000

Stocks for the Long Run

If you want to know how the market could perform in the future, then look back a couple hundred years. Jeremy Schwartz is the Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree and co-host of the Behind the Markets podcast. Hes also co-author of the latest edition of the best-selling book, Stocks for the Long Run. Robert Brokamp caught up with Schwartz to discuss: - Why dying industrial companies have beaten the broader market - Managing cash in a higher interest rate climate - How often investors should rebalance - The data that the Federal Reserve may be misreading Companies and investments discussed: MSFT, CVS, KO, DTH, AMZN, XOM, CVX, USFR Host: Robert Brokamp Guest: Jeremy Schwartz Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Annie Franks, Tim Sparks


Fri, 03 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Huge Jobs Report, Triple-A Earnings

Unemployment hit a 53-year low as Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet delivered their latest earnings reports.

(0:21) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss:
- Another interest rate hike and a surprising jobs report
- Apple's first sales drop since 2019
- Guidance overshadowing Amazon's holiday quarter
- Starbucks struggling outside the U.S.
- The latest from Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Exxon Mobil, and AMD

(19:11) Jason and Ron keep earnings-palooza going and discuss:
- McDonald's ending the fiscal year on a high note
- Match Group's disappointing results and layoff announcement
- The latest from Qualcomm, Peloton, and Snap
- Two stocks on their radar: Kinsale Capital Group and Samsara

Looking for stocks trading at a discount?
Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.

Stocks discussed: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, SBUX, META, XOM, INTC, AMD, MCD, QCOM, PTON, SNAP, MTCH, KNSL, IOT

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 02 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Meta Soars

For the first time in a long time, Meta Platforms gave shareholders a reason to smile.

(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- 4th-quarter revenue coming in higher than expected for Meta
- That $40 billion share buyback plan
- Why AMD is demonstrating not all semiconductor chip companies are alike

(11:00) How did Planet Fitness get the attention of the Federal Trade Commission? Ricky Mulvey and Sanmeet Deo discuss whether the low-cost gym deserves a spot on your watch list.

Stocks discussed: META, INTC, AMD, PLNT

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Tim Beyers, Sanmeet Deo
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Wed, 01 Feb 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Peloton's Turning Point?

It's been a rough 12 months for Peloton, but the fitness company just offered shareholders a glimmer of hope.

(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Peloton's 2nd-quarter revenue surprising to the upside
- A sluggish digital ad market hurting Snap's 4th-quarter results
- How Snapchat+ could be a potential lever for management to pull

(11:00) Jason Moser and Matt Frankel discuss the 30th anniversary of exchange-traded funds and how stock investors use ETFs today.

Stocks discussed: PTON, SNAP, GOOG, GOOGL, SPY, VNQ, RSP, CIBR

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Tue, 31 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Record Profits? Record Profits.

The list of companies who had a more profitable 2022 than Exxon Mobil is decidedly short.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- McDonald's growing global sales by $20 billion during the pandemic
- Exxon Mobil racking up an annual profit of more than $55 billion
- Why Wall Street seemed disappointed by a share buyback plan smaller than Chevron's

(10:40) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp discuss reasons to be both uplifted (and depressed) about the economy, debt, and pandas.

Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.

Stocks discussed: MCD, XOM, AAPL, MSFT, CVX

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Mon, 30 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Gen Z & Millennials Are Driving AmEx Higher

If American Express had a problem with an aging demographic, it looks like that problem is being addressed.

(0:20) Jason Moser discusses:
- Shares of AmEx popping 15% in two days off of strong guidance for 2023
- How younger customers are the majority of the companys growth story
- Why hes going to be watching Amazons revenue when it reports earnings on Thursday

(11:00) Tim White and Tim Beyers discuss the implications of Microsofts $10 billion investment in ChatGPT.

Companies discussed: AXP, GS, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Tim Beyers, Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Sun, 29 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000

Howard Marks on China, Risk, and Interest Rates

If a key to personal happiness is low expectations, then a key to investing may be realistic expectations. Howard Marks is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. Motley Fool Director of Small Cap Research Bill Mann caught up with Marks to discuss:
- Why higher interest rates created a Sea Change for investors
- Chinas economic miracle, and its impact on inflation
- Lessons from the era of easy money
- What life insurance companies can teach investors about risk

To read Howard Marks' latest memo, click here: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change

Host: Bill Mann
Guest: Howard Marks
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Annie Franks


Sat, 28 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000

Lessons from Buffetts Investing Framework

Can you think of any stocks in the S&P 500 that will have higher earnings five years from now? Are you 90% confident in your prediction? If you have a good answer to these questions, then you might be able to start investing like Warren Buffett. Motley Fool Senior Analyst John Rotonti joins Ricky Mulvey to discuss: - What one of Buffetts lieutenants revealed about Berkshires stock-buying framework - How investors can use the framework, and why so few stocks fit - One company that may fulfill Berkshires criteria Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, KO, USB, NVR Interview with Todd Combs -https://investmentmanagementinsights.substack.com/p/graham-and-dodd-annual-breakfast Berkshires 1986 Letter to Shareholders: Chairman's Letter -https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1986.html Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: John Rotonti Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 27 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

GDP, Tesla, FinTech, and "Burrito Season"

As much as we love stocks, sometimes the Big Macro really does drive the market.

(0:21) Emily Flippen and Ron Gross discuss:
- Stronger-than-expected GDP sending stocks higher
- Tesla ending the year on a high note
- Chevron's record profits and huge buyback plan
- Visa and Mastercard delivering strong profits (again)
- The latest from Intel, Microsoft, Southwest Airlines, and Johnson & Johnson

(19:11) Deidre Woollard talks with Corrado Russo, head of global securities at Hazelview Investments, about real estate, REITs, and a part of the market investors might want to avoid.

(30:00) Emily and Ron discuss Chipotle's plan to hire 15,000 workers for "burrito season" and share two stocks on their radar: Mercedes Benz Group and Domino's Pizza.

Looking for stocks trading at a discount?
Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.

Stocks discussed: TSLA, INTC, CVX, MSFT, LUV, MA, V, JNJ, REXR, CMG, MBGYY, DPZ

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross, Deidre Woollard, Corrado Russo
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 26 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Netflix, Comcast, Southwest Airlines

If you attempted to fly Southwest Airlines over the holidays, you're not going to be surprised by their latest earnings results.

(0:20) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Southwest's $220 million loss
- Why the airline has "a more fundamental problem"
- Comcast's growing subscribers (and costs) in its streaming service, Peacock

(11:00) Ricky Mulvey talks with Catie Peiper about Netflix's international expansion and programming strategy.

Companies discussed: LUV, CMCSA, NFLX, WBD

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Catie Peiper
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Wed, 25 Jan 2023 21:10:00 +0000

Eyes on the Cloud

Investors are paying up for stability, as big tech growth slows down. (0:15) Dylan Lewis and Motley Fool Chief Investment Officer Andy Cross discuss:

- Microsoft's quarter, and lower growth expectations for its cloud business.
- What long-term investors can expect from Microsoft.
- The Department of Justice's suit against Alphabet, and a shifting regulatory environment.
- Kimberly Clark's "less than stellar" quarter.

Plus, (16:25) Motley Fool Canada's Jim Gillies joins Ricky Mulvey to give the bull case for one of the most heavily shorted stocks of 2022.

Companies discussed: MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, TTD, KMB, BIG

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Andy Cross, Jim Gillies
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Tue, 24 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

2 Blue Chips Under Pressure

How long will macroeconomic pressures persist in 2023?

(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Johnson & Johnson's 4th-quarter profits falling 25%
- Why he likes the company's balance of pharma and medtech
- 3M's challenges and why an increase in consumer-facing solutions may be a better route

(10:40) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer your questions about saving for retirement, bonds, and more.

Looking for stocks trading at a discount? Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.

Stocks discussed: JNJ, MMM, BND

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Mon, 23 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Big Banks vs. Apple & PayPal

Major banks are teaming up like The Avengers to take on powerful forces: Apple Wallet and PayPal.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Spotify becoming the latest company to announce layoffs
- Seven large banks combining forces to create a digital wallet product
- How and why Apple and PayPal have such a large lead in this industry

(12:40) Asit Sharma and Rickey Mulvey discuss corporate governance and an under-the-radar pop culture company going through some fundamental changes.

Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.

Stocks discussed: SPOT, WFC, BAC, JPM, COF, PNC, USB, TFC, AAPL, PYPL, DIS, MSGS, PG, FNKO

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sun, 22 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000

GEs Legacy & Lessons for Investors

You wouldn't know it from its recent struggles, but for most of the 20th century General Electric was one of the most important companies (and stocks) in America. William D. Cohan is a founding partner of digital news business Puck and the author of Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of an American Icon. Cohan joined Ricky Mulvey to discuss:

- The mythology behind General Electrics birth
- How corporations struggle mightily with CEO succession
- Jack Welch and the religion of earnings consistency
- Why he believes a combination between Warner Brothers Discovery and NBCUniversal is inevitable

Companies discussed: GE, DIS, WBD, CMCSA

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: William D. Cohan
Engineer: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks, Annie Franks


Sat, 21 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000

Real Estate Trends w/ Opportunity

The broad real estate market underperformed the S&P 500 in 2022, but the upside is investors can find some cheaper opportunities in a cyclical sector. Deidre Woollard and Motley Fool Contributor Matt Frankel discuss:
- How REITs differ from stocks
- Publicly traded vs. private REITs
- One office REIT that's evolving
- Ways to spot a yield trap
- REITs benefiting from e-commerce trends

Companies/REITs discussed: ESRT, SPG, PLD, GOOG, GOOGL, META, O, SKT, KIM, VNQ, EWRE, IIPR

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Fri, 20 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Big Tech Layoffs, Signs of Housing Trouble

Alphabet and Microsoft are laying off a combined 22,000 employees. Is Apple next?

(0:21) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- The ripple effect of Big Tech Layoffs
- Netflix founder Reed Hastings stepping down from his co-CEO role
- Cancellation rates soaring in one segment of the housing market
- Differing views on interest rates from two major bank CEOs
- The latest from Procter & Gamble, Nordstrom, and holiday retail data

(19:11) John Rotonti talks with Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, about what history can teach about the current market cycle and sectors that may hold opportunities for investors.

(33:30) Jason and Matt answer listener questions about CEOs they'd like to shadow for a day and under-the-radar trends, and share two stocks on their radar: Roper Technologies and Regions Financial.

Motley Fool Stock Advisor is open to new members for just $99 a year.
Join the hundreds of thousands of investors in Stock Advisor by going to www.fool.com/intro.

Stocks discussed: MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, NFLX, KBH, JWN, PG, JPM, MS, BX, ETSY, SBUX, ROP, RF

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, John Rotonti, Jurrien Timmer
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 19 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

China, India, and the Question of Population Growth

Data this week suggest India is about to pass China as the world's most populous country.

(0:25) Bill Mann discusses:
- Procter & Gamble bumping up against the limits of its pricing powers
- Why China still has a demand problem
- How companies in the U.S. are moving some operations from China to Vietnam and India

(11:25) Sanmeet Deo talks with Dexcom CEO Kevin Sayer about his company's work in continuous glucose monitors and a major shift affecting the future of healthcare.

Stocks discussed: PG, CMG, AAPL, SBUX, DXCM

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Sanmeet Deo, Kevin Sayer
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Wed, 18 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Prices Falling, More Tech Layoffs

As many expected, Microsoft announced the layoff of 5% of its employees.

(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- The Producer Price Index falling 0.5%, much more than economists were expecting
- Microsoft's layoffs, and whether Alphabet will be next
- Why he's expecting more questions about layoffs this earnings season, but also more talk of where companies are investing

(9:25) Is Lululemon Athletica facing short-term headwinds or long-term challenges? Ryan Henderson and Jamie Louko go head to head in our latest Bull vs. Bear debate!

Our flagship service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year.
To access this exclusive offer go to www.fool.com/intro.

Stocks discussed: MSFT, CRM, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, LULU, NKE

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Ryan Henderson, Jamie Louko
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Tue, 17 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Goldman Sachs Drags Down the Dow

Goldman Sachs Drags Down the Dow

The investment bank suffered its worst earnings miss in a decade.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- 4th-quarter profits for Goldman Sachs falling 66%
- How investments in Marcus and the Apple Card partnership haven't paid off yet
- Disney's blunt response to activist investor Nelson Peltz

(11:00) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Stephanie Marini, certified financial planner, about what investors need to know how The Secure 2.0 Act affects savings and retirement.

Looking to get a jump start on your 2023 financial goals?
Our flagship service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year!
Access this special offer by visiting www.fool.com/intro.

Stocks discussed: GS, DIS

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Stephanie Marini
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sun, 15 Jan 2023 16:00:00 +0000

Earnings Watch & Market Valuation w/ Liz Ann Sonders

"Guidance becomes even more important in this environment."

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to offer her perspective on what investors should be watching this earnings season, as well as:
- The unlikely start to her career in investing
- Key macroeconomic data she and her team at Schwab are focused on
- Her question about crypto
- One idea to improve the odds of financial independence

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Liz Ann Sonders
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Heather Horton


Sat, 14 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000

Small Caps w/ Strong Brands

You dont put premium gas in a rental car. And that attitude is why we like to find companies with a high degree of inside ownership. Bill Mann, director of small-cap research at The Motley Fool, joins Ricky Mulvey to discuss:

- How to think about allocation for smaller companies
- Key small cap metrics to watch
- Boring businesses that warrant more attention
- A closer look at a real estate brokerage, a coffee supplier, and a Bitcoin holding firm that masquerades as a software company

Companies discussed: CMG, WDFC, GGG, TREX, RDFN, WEST, MSTR

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Bill Mann
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 13 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Dry January, Big Banks, and Trouble at Disney HQ

Earnings season officially kicked off!

(0:21) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss:
- Inflation falling for the 6th month in a row
- The common view Jamie Dimon and Brian Moynihan have on the U.S. economy
- Disneys fight with activist investor Nelson Peltz
- Starbucks and News Corp becoming the latest companies announcing a return to offices
- The latest from Delta Air Lines and Outset Medical

(19:11) David Henkes, senior principal at Technomic, shares how the restaurant industry is recession resistant, the rise of drive-through, and the impact of Dry January on restaurants.

(36:15) Ron and Jason share three investments on their radar: Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF, Industrial Select Sector Fund, and S&P Global Infrastructure ETF.

Motley Fool premium members, click here to link your Motley Fool membership to a Spotify account and begin listening to this exclusive new podcast!
If you're not a member, you can get a preview of the show and learn how to get access here on Spotify!

Stocks discussed: JPM, BAC, WFC, CITI, DIS, NKE, SBUX, NWS, NWSA, DAL, AAL, OM, MCD, CMG, SAM, CIBR, XLI, GII


Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser, David Henkes
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 12 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Walmart's Tech, One Activist's Fight

Walmart isn't the first company that comes to mind when thinking about technology platforms, but that's not stopping the retailer from expanding.

(0:21) Emily Flippen discusses:
- Nelson Peltz and Trian Fund Management pushing for a seat on Disney's board
- Why Peltz is "a day late and a dollar short"
- Salesforce partnering up with Walmart

(11:30) Ricky Mulvey talks with Jamie Harris, CFO of freight booking company RXO, about what his business saw during the holidays and how RXO is disrupting a surprising industry.

Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.

Stocks discussed: DIS, NKE, WMT, CRM, RXO

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Emily Flippen, Jamie Harris
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 11 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Wells Fargo Steps Back

What does it say when a market leader steps back from.leading?

(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Wells Fargo, once the biggest player in mortgages, announces it is making a strategic shift
- The role that the current state of housing plays in Wells Fargo's decision
- Our brand new podcast, Stock Advisor Roundtable

(10:15) Tim Beyers and Tim White take a closer look at "key person risk".

Motley Fool premium members, click here to link your Motley Fool membership to a Spotify account and begin listening to this exclusive new podcast!

And if you're not a member, you can get a preview of the show and learn how to get access here on Spotify!

Stocks discussed: WFC, CRM, SFIX, GOOG, GOOGL

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Tim Beyers, Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Tue, 10 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Stocks For Chinas New Bull Market

A bull market in the MSCI Asia Pacific index doesnt mean investors should make rash investment decisions.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- How U.S. companies can be a better way to play Chinas reopening
- Jay Powells latest speech reinforcing the Feds focus on stability
- The potential for other CEOs following Bob Igers lead as Disney employees return to offices starting March 1

(12:30) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp share tips for making this year a healthier and wealthier one.

Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.

Stocks discussed: BABA, TCEHY, MCD, SBUX, KO, LVMHF, DIS

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Jackie Pecquex, Catie Peiper, Nick Lutz
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 09 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

"No company is immune."

A major investment bank became the latest (but not the last) to announce layoffs.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Goldman Sachs cutting nearly 7% of its staff
- Lululemon shares falling after the company lowered gross margin guidance
- Why inventory levels will be a key retail metric to watch this upcoming earnings season

(11:00) Kirsten Guerra and Lou Whiteman engage in Bull vs. Bear debate over Teladoc Health.

Our new report, "5 Pullback Stocks" is available for free to Stock Advisor members.
To access the report just go to www.fool.com/Pullback.

Stocks discussed: GS, LULU ANF, AEO, TDOC, AMZN

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Kirsten Guerra, Lou Whiteman
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rich Engdahl


Sun, 08 Jan 2023 17:01:00 +0000

Tom Gardner and Morgan Housel on Inflation, Tesla, and Starbucks

Everything feels unprecedented if you dont study history, and 2022 wasnt unique for the stock market. Morgan Housel is the best-selling author of The Psychology of Money. He joined Motley Fool co-founder and CEO Tom Gardner for a conversation about:

- Why cash is a better hedge against inflation than many believe
- Parallels between the 2022 stock market and the dot-com bust of the early 2000s
- What Tesla investors can learn from Starbucks past decline

Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, TSLA, SBUX

Host: Tom Gardner
Guest: Morgan Housel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Sat, 07 Jan 2023 17:00:00 +0000

Diagnosing Stock Drops

Just because a stock lost 98% of its value doesnt mean it's cheap. Sometimes the market becomes efficient.

Asit Sharma joins Ricky Mulvey to look at some justifiable reasons why stocks dropped last year and which strong businesses that may have been swept up in the tide. They discuss:

- Carvanas boom and bust, and the takeaways for investors
- If Zoom has a sticky product
- How Roku is addressing a tougher advertisement landscape
- Metas valuation, and questions about its leadership
- Mindset advice if you want to be a contrarian investor

Companies discussed: LULU, ZM, MSFT, CVNA, ROKU, NFLX, META

Aswath Damodarans blog on Meta:
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2022/11/meta-lesson-1-corporate-governance.html

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Asit Sharma
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Fri, 06 Jan 2023 21:15:00 +0000

3 CEOs Walk Into A Bar

On a shortened week of trading for investors, three CEOs dominated the headlines.

(0:21) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- Layoff announcements and a sober prediction from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella
- The market's positive reaction to the December jobs report
- Key things they're watching in the tech industry
- Newest unveilings at CES in Las Vegas
- The latest from Stitch Fix and Constellation Brands

(19:11) Malcolm Ethridge, CFP and host of "The Tech Money Podcast", weighs in with predictions of two more interest rate hikes, why "Mega Cap Tech" is the key to a stock market rally, and what he's watching for this earnings season.

(34:00) Matt and Jason discuss Bed Bath & Beyond's real estate footprint as the company nears bankruptcy, and share two stocks on their radar: Amazon and Bentley Systems.

Looking to get a jump start on your 2023 financial goals?
Our flagship service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year!
Access this special offer by visiting www.fool.com/intro.

Stocks discussed: CRM, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, SFIX, STZ, ROKU, SONY, HMC, GOOG, GOOGL, SPOT, BBBY, BSY

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Malcolm Ethridge
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 05 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Value Opportunities for Investors

Value Opportunities for Investors

Sometimes cheap stocks are an opportunity, and sometimes stocks are cheap for a reason.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Amazon laying off 18,000 employees
- Whether layoffs are a bad sign or an indication a company is being honest with itself
- The writing on the (bond market) wall for Bed Bath & Beyond

(11:11) Ron Gross provides an overview of value investing, discusses why the current environment favors value stocks, and shares a few ideas for investors seeking to build up the value side of their portfolio.

Stocks discussed: AMZN, CRM, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, BBBY, TGT, COST, WMT, BBY, CAT, DE, NEE, SO, NUE, VMC

The Motley Fool's top stock-picking service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year!
To join now visit www.fool.com/intro to access this special introductory offer.

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Ron Gross
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Wed, 04 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

2 Dividend Stocks To Watch

Salesforce is laying off 10% of its workforce. Is it a sign of things to come in the tech industry?

(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- How Salesforce's recent acquisitions are the reason layoffs shouldn't be surprising
- Why HubSpot's next move is one of the most interesting things in tech
- One tech business bucking the trend by increasing its hiring

(8:22) Matt Argersinger previews the year for dividend stock investors, discusses why the payout radio is a key metric to watch, and shares two dividend stocks he believes are looking more attractive these days.

Stocks discussed: CRM, HUBS, ASAN, MNDY, SCHD, VIG, MTN, SWK, EXR, LII

The Motley Fool's top stock-picking service, Stock Advisor, is open to new members for just $99 a year!
To join now visit www.fool.com/intro to access this special introductory offer.

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Ron Gross
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Tue, 03 Jan 2023 21:00:00 +0000

Time To Hit The Gym Stocks?

'Tis the season for investing in your physical fitness.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The relative strength of Planet Fitness
- How "exercise at home" has been around for decades
- Amazon actually testing flying drone deliveries in California and Texas

(13:45) Dylan Lewis and Asit Sharma discuss what growth stock investors should be considering this year, as well as one business in particular with tailwinds (despite a tough environment).

Stocks discussed: PLNT, PTON, AMZN, CRWD

Looking for more investing ideas?
Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Dylan Lewis, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Mon, 02 Jan 2023 12:00:00 +0000

2023 Investing Blueprint

It's the perfect time to review your financial plan for investing in 2023.

(0:21) Andy Cross discusses:
- His optimism after the worst year for investors since 2008
- The potential for 2023 to be "a stock picker's market"
- Why financials and healthcare are two of the industries he's watching for opportunities

(10:15) Robert Brokamp weighs in on whether all investors should more seriously consider bonds, why retirees might be able to increase their safe withdrawal rates, and the biggest asset younger investors have this year.

Looking for more investing ideas? Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Andy Cross, Robert Brokamp
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 30 Dec 2022 18:00:00 +0000

27 Stocks for 2023

CEOs on the hot seat, stocks in the spotlight, and reckless predictions!

(0:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- Industries and trends investors should be watching
- Why the CEOs of Amazon, Starbucks, and Twilio could be on the hot seat
- Two stocks poised for upside
- Keeping online streaming and BNPL businesses on a short leash
- Not being worried about Blackstone, Home Depot, and Johnson & Johnson

(19:11) Jason and Matt continue our 2023 preview with:
- Potential surprises for investors
- Why Live Nation and nCino could both be acquired
- 1 trend and 1 stock that investors will have to be very patient with
- Reckless business predictions involving crypto, Elon Musk, and Warren Buffett
- Two stocks on their radar: Topgolf Callaway and Easterly Government Properties

Want even more stock ideas? Get a free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report by going to www.fool.com/report.

Stocks discussed: ROKU, GOOGL, PARA, DIS, NFLX, AMZN, TWLO, SBUX, STAG, TTD, WBD, PYPL, SQ, BX, HD, JNJ, CRM, PLD, CRWD, STWD, LYV, NCNO, APPH, COIN, BRK.A, MODG, DEA

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 29 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Do You Really Want To Be An Investor?

(0:21) Chris Hill discusses:
- What's coming up on the show in early January
- Seth Rogen's revelation about stand-up comedy
- What it takes to be an investor

Host: Chris Hill
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Wed, 28 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Don't Bet Against Behemoths

Disruption is not a given, nor is it easy.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- How Visa and Mastercard fared in a year dominated by crypto news
- Why fortress balance sheets will be an even bigger asset in the new year
- Leaders he's watching in 2023

Stocks mentioned: V, MA, MSFT, APPL, GOOG, GOOGL, HD, LOW

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Tue, 27 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Global Markets to Watch in 2023

Outside the U.S. there are opportunities for investors in the new year.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Countries producing raw materials (and video games)
- What needs to change in China to get him more interested in companies like Alibaba and JD.com
- Why investors should be watching Canada and Norway

Stocks mentioned: JD, BABA, TCEHY

Go to www.fool.com/report to get your free copy of our "5 Stocks Under $49" report.

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sat, 24 Dec 2022 10:00:00 +0000

How Much Does Santa Weigh?

We're taking a break from investing and stock talk to discuss:
- Santa's actual weight
- Murder's surprising popularity as an entertainment device
- Best movie Santas
- Alcoholic holiday drinks
- "Cereal Derangement Syndrome"
- Fascination with the NY Post's front page
- Rule changes we would make in the NBA, NHL, and MLB
- Who should narrate a classic McSweeney's essay

To cast your vote for your favorite sports rule change, email podcasts@fool.com.

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Bill Mann
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 23 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Becky Quick, Mark Cuban

We're easing into Christmas weekend with highlights from two of our favorite interviews of 2022.

(0:21) Becky Quick discusses:
- Helping The Wall Street Journal leap from print to the web
- Making the switch from the Journal to CNBC
- Her unexpected introduction to Warren Buffett
- Behind the scenes at CNBC

(19:11) Mark Cuban discusses:
- His new health care venture, Cost Plus Drugs
- Competing with major healthcare companies
- Advice for potential NFL owner Jeff Bezos
- The appeal of pickleball!

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Becky Quick, Mark Cuban
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Thu, 22 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Following Buffett, Bull vs. Bear: Etsy

What's the downside to using public filings to mirror Berkshire-Hathaway's investments?

(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- The strength of Berkshire-Hathaway's underlying businesses
- Warren Buffett's less-than-perfect investing track record
- How investors cannot get the exact same price as the Berkshire-Hathaway investment managers

(10:20) Dylan Lewis and Ricky Mulvey engage in a bull vs. bear debate over e-commerce platform Etsy.

Stocks mentioned: BRK.A, BRK.B, ETSY, EBAY

Holiday Music: Merry, Merry Christmas by Keb Mo

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Dylan Lewis
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Wed, 21 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Nike, FedEx, and The Fed

The shipping giant has a demand problem, while Nike may be out of the woods.

(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- FedEx cutting $1 billion in costs to make up for weak demand
- UPS solidly outperforming FedEx (for years)
- Nike getting past their inventory problems and increasing digital sales

(10:30) John Rotonti and Ricky Mulvey analyze the implications of interest rates being higher for longer and one company that's benefiting.

Stocks mentioned: FDX, UPS, NKE, BX

Holiday Music: Looks Like A Cold, Cold Winter by Ingrid Michaelson

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma, John Rotonti
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Tue, 20 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Is TikTok Too Big To Ban?

The digital advertising landscape is shifting.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Google's and Meta Platform's collective share of the digital ad market shrinking
- Amazon leading the charge in e-commerce ad players
- TikTok's impact on the ad industry and whether it is "unbannable" in the U.S.

(8:50) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp analyze the ins-and-outs of buying bonds.

Stocks mentioned: GOOG, GOOGL, META, AMZN, SPG, BND, BLK, IBDN, IBDR

Holiday Music: How Do You Spell Channukkahh? by The LeeVees

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Robert Brokamp, Alison Southwick
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Tim Sparks


Mon, 19 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Barron's Top Stock Picks

There's a value approach to Barron's annual list, and we've got some thoughts.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The case for traditional value stocks like Bank of America and Berkshire-Hathaway
- Inclusion of Big Tech companies like Alphabet and Amazon
- Why attractive valuation isn't enough to get us interested in Madison Square Garden Sports

(12:45) Jason and Matt Frankel review some bold predictions they made last year and share some predictions about mortgage rates, inflation, and stocks in the year ahead.

Stocks mentioned: AA, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, BAC, BRK.A, BRK.B, CMCSA, DAL, DIS, MSGS, MDT, TSLA, TOL

Holiday Music: 8 Days (of Hanukkah) by Sharon Jones & the Dap-Kings

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Sun, 18 Dec 2022 16:00:00 +0000

Aswath Damodaran on the Fed, Inflation, and Valuation

If you're impatient, then value investing's probably not for you. But for those interested, there's probably no one better to listen to than Aswath Damodaran, professor of corporate finance and valuation at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner talks with the Dean of Valuation about:
- Inflations new questions for investors
- The most important investor you can learn from
- Incentives, correlations, and costs in ESG scoring

Stocks mentioned: MO, BLK

If you're a member of any Motley Fool service you can access the full conversation here:

https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/4056/coverage/2022/08/31/navigating-inflation-behavioral-investing-and-mark/

Host: Tom Gardner
Guest: Aswath Damodaran
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan, Tim Sparks


Sat, 17 Dec 2022 17:01:00 +0000

Same Data, Different Conclusions

Even if a soft landing is possible, investors may not want one. Plus, how do you even know if a soft landing is happening?

Liz Young is the head of Investment Strategy for SoFi. Motley Fool editor Mary Long caught up with Young to talk about:
- Macro data thats meaningful to stock investors
- How to build an investment thesis
- One sector thats been unfairly punished
- The likelihood of a recession in 2023

Host: Mary Long
Guest: Liz Young
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 16 Dec 2022 21:19:00 +0000

Best & Worst of 2022

Time to hand out some awards!

(0:21) Ron Gross, Emily Flippen, and Jason Moser discuss:
- The biggest business/investing stories of the year
- Who gets their vote for CEO of 2022
- Some of the dumbest investments of the year
- How semiconductors and a stock hitting an all-time high flew under Wall Street's radar

(19:11) Ron, Emily, and Jason continue our year-in-review special with:
- Surprising years from Salesforce, Axon Enterprise, and Campbell Soup
- Things they didn't have on their 2022 Bingo Cards
- New investing discoveries
- Three stocks on their radar: Booz Allen Hamilton, NextEra Energy, and Topgolf Callaway

Stocks discussed: TSLA, TXN, ULTA, BBBY, K, CASY, OM, AXON, CPB, CRM, BRK.A, BRK.B, DIS, DOCU, NFLX, BAH, NEE, MODG

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Emily Flippen, Jason Moser
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 15 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Are College Bowl Sponsorships Worth It?

With 42 college bowl games on tap, are companies spending smart money to sponsor the event?

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The economics of bowl game sponsorship
- Why local businesses may have an edge
- Kellogg sponsoring three bowl games, two of them with their Cheez-It brand

(12:45) Tim White and Tim Beyers take a closer look at user-interface design and which companies get it right (and wrong).

Stocks mentioned: AZO, COF, SAM, K, LYFT, HUBS, CRM, SNAP, AAPL, WDAY

Holiday Music: The Hanukkah Waltz by Bela Fleck and the Flecktones

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Tim White, Tim Beyers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Wed, 14 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Tesla Shareholders Are Nervous (They Should Be)

Tesla shares have been cut in half since April 14, the day Elon Musk announced his intention to buy Twitter.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Delta Airlines projecting financial optimism in 2023
- Moderna shares up 20% this week after promising results from a skin cancer treatment trial in combination with Merck
- Tesla shareholders being more nervous than before due to (among other things) Twitter taking more of CEO Elon Musk's time and attention

(12:45) Ricky Mulvey talks with Jack Caporal from The Ascent about the most popular financial New Year's resolutions and tips for keeping them.

For more data on The Ascent's survey on financial resolutioins, click here: https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/financial-new-years-resolutions/

Stocks mentioned: DAL, MRNA, MRK, TSLA

Holiday Music: White Christmas by Sharon Jones & the Dap-Kings

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Jack Caporal
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks


Tue, 13 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Inflation Cooling, SBF Arrested

November's CPI rose just 0.1%, lower than economists were expecting.

(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- How inflation in the US compares to other countries
- Why some Nasdaq stocks have been "brutalized"
- Sam Bankman-Fried, co-founder of FTX, being arrested and charged with (among other things) conspiracy and securities fraud

(12:45) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp answer listeners questions about how many stocks to own, financial aid, and saving for kids.

Stocks mentioned: STLJF

Holiday Music: Five Pound Box Of Money by Pearl Bailey

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Mon, 12 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

London Calling Microsoft

A new 10-year deal with the London Stock Exchange sends shares of Microsoft higher.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The "win-win" deal between the two sides
- How cloud services like Azure and AWS are becoming utilities
- The short, not-so-happy public life of Weber Grill
- Peter Lynch's advice being a starting point (not a finish line) for investors

(12:30) Ricky Mulvey talks with Eddie Alterman, host of the "Car Show" podcast, about the used car market and how GM is competing with Ferrari.

Stocks mentioned: MSFT, LDNXF, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, WEBR, COOK, GM

Holiday Music: Sugar & Booze by Ana Gasteyer

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Eddie Alterman
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Sun, 11 Dec 2022 16:00:00 +0000

The ROI of Design

Great design can reward a companys shareholders, but good enough doesnt do much. Mauro Porcini is the Chief Design Officer of PepsiCo and the author of The Human Side of Innovation: The Power of People in Love with People. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Porcini to discuss:

- Why investors should watch companies with great design thinkers

- The strategy behind limited-edition releases

- How wearables could change what we eat and drink

Companies mentioned: PEP, MMM, AAPL

Host: Ricky Mulvey

Guest: Mauro Porcini

Engineer: Tim Sparks


Sat, 10 Dec 2022 17:01:00 +0000

REITs, Homebuilders, and the Return of Las Vegas

You can think of real estate in a lot of different ways, but at the end of the day it's just space. And that space is going through a lot of change. Interest rates are going higher, homes are getting more expensive, and companies continue to struggle with hybrid-work plans. Deidre Woollard and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- Lesser-known office REITs that may be presenting opportunities for investors
- Homebuilders facing headwinds
- Lessons from Las Vegass comeback

Companies mentioned: SLG, ARE, HPP, DEA, TOL, PHM, HD, LOW, SHW, POOL, SPG, VICI, KIM, EPR

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Matt Argersinger
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 09 Dec 2022 21:10:00 +0000

USA vs. Microsoft

It's time to lawyer up!

(0:21) Andy Cross and Ron Gross discuss:
- Wholesale prices rising higher than expected
- Costco's surprisingly disappointing quarter
- DocuSign ending the year on a positive note
- Casey's General Stores hitting an all-time high thanks in part to beer cheese pizza
- The latest from Lululemon, RH, Campbell's Soup, and Chewy

(19:11) Rachel Warren talks with Jay Jacobs from BlackRock about megatrends to watch in healthcare, infrastructure, and electric vehicles.

(30:20) Andy and Ron discuss the FTC suing Microsoft over its proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard, and share two stocks on their radar: Stanley Black & Decker and Houlihan Lokey.

Stocks discussed: COST, LULU, RH, DOCU, CPB, CHWY, CASY, BLK, MSFT, ATVI, SWK, HLI

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Andy Cross, Ron Gross, Rachel Warren, Jay Jacobs
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Thu, 08 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Gas, China, Food & Beverage Stocks

Inflation is one of the big stories of the year, but consumers are finally getting relief at the pump.

(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- The price of gas being lower than it was a year ago
- Ripple effects (positive and negative) from lower gas prices
- China stocks getting a short-term boost from the prospects of Covid restrictions being relaxed

(9:45) Ricky Mulvey joins Asit to take a closer look at which food and beverage trends are gaining (and losing) steam.

Stocks mentioned: BILI, JD, BYND, KO, SAM, KR

Holiday Music: Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) by Dropkick Murphys

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Wed, 07 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Another New Trend from Robinhood?

After helping to drive trading costs to $0, Robinhood offers a financial incentive for IRA investing.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Whether Robinhood's 1% match on new IRA accounts will force other financial institutions to do the same
- If the new service from the still-unprofitable Robinhood will reward shareholders
- A new survey from Forbes Advisor about the increase in buy-now, pay-later activity and what it bodes for consumer savings in 2023

(10:25) Asit Sharma talks with Endava CEO John Cottrell about digital payment trends and differentiating from the competition.

Stocks mentioned: HOOD, DAVA, WISE

Holiday Music: Christmas Will Work It Out by Paola Bennet

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma, John Cottrell
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl


Tue, 06 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Getting Kids to Invest

You might not expect to find a multi-bagger stock in aftermarket automotive parts. But, that's exactly what one retailer has accomplished.

(0:44) Deidre Woollard and Jim Gillies discuss:
- Europe's energy crunch, and why Russia isn't playing along with price caps.
- Investing in economic cycles as a contrarian.
- Why AutoZone is "one of the best managed companies and capital allocation stories."

Plus,(17:31)Motley Fool Contributor Brian Withers joins Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp to discuss how to encourage kids to invest when time is on their side.

Companies mentioned: AZO, DIS, CMG

Holiday Music: Disco Christmas by Universal Robot

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Brian Withers
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Mon, 05 Dec 2022 21:15:00 +0000

The Evolution of Max

Executives at Warner Bros Discovery are planning to unveil a new streaming service combining the assets of HBO Max and Discovery+.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- How CEO David Zaslav's focus on profitability could pay off
- WBD's underrated library of content
- The rise of FAST (Free Ad-Supported TV)

(12:30) Andy Cross talks with Airbnb co-founder Nat Blecharczyk about the latest improvements for the home-sharing platform.

Stocks mentioned: WBD, NFLX, DIS, CMCSA, TTD, ABNB

Holiday Music: Christmas Is Starting Now by Big Bad Voodoo Daddy

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Andy Cross, Nate Blecharczyk
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl


Sun, 04 Dec 2022 16:00:00 +0000

Indra Nooyi on Leadership, Culture, and Steve Jobs

During her 12-year run as CEO of Pepsi, Indra Nooyi helped the company grow sales by 80%. Despite her success as one of the most powerful women in business, she's happy to be out of the world of bits and bytes. Motley Fool co-founder and CEO Tom Gardner caught up with Nooyi to discuss:
- Other CEOs she's learned from
- Building a culture of ownership
- Decision-making as an art and a science

Companies mentioned: PEP, AAPL, AMZN, PFE

Indra Nooyi's best-selling book is "My Life in Full: Work, Family, and Our Future".

Host: Tom Gardner
Guest: Indra Nooyi
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Heather Horton, Dan Boyd


Sat, 03 Dec 2022 17:10:00 +0000

Lessons From Great Investors

The first rule of investing is dont lose money. The other rules are a little more complicated. David Rubenstein is the Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of The Carlyle Group, and the author of How to Invest: Masters on the Craft. Rubenstein joined John Rotonti to discuss: - Lessons from Warren Buffet, Larry Fink, and Seth Klarman - Genius and luck in investing - Happiness and expectations - Investing with a margin of safety Companies mentioned: CG, BLK, TSLA, HLT Host: John Rotonti Guest: David Rubenstein Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Kyle Carruthers


Fri, 02 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

More Jobs for Americans, More Confusion for Investors

If you're an investor trying to make sense of the conflicting signals from macroeconomic data, you're not alone.

(0:21) Matt Argersinger and Jason Moser discuss:
- A strong jobs report, latest housing data, and contrary indications from the retail industry
- Ulta Beauty continuing a standout year
- VICI Properties increasing its share of properties on the Las Vegas Strip
- Signs of life from Okta
- The latest from Salesforce, Five Below, and Crowdstrike

(19:11) Deidre Woollard talks with Ben Miller, CEO of crowdfunding investment platform Fundrise, about commercial real estate and the trends he's watching for homebuilders and office space.

Stocks discussed: ULTA, CRM, VICI, BX, OKTA, FIVE, CRWD, APRN, EXR, CRNC

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser, Deidre Woollard, Ben Miller
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 01 Dec 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Battling Giants

What's it like competing against a business that's 1,000 times bigger than your own?

(0:21) Emily Flippen discusses:
- Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor leaving his job exactly one year after he got it
- Whether the market is overreacting to Taylor and underreacting to a strong 3rd-quarter report from Salesforce
- Kroger's strong profits and prospects for expanding its grocery empire with a proposed acquisition of Albertson's

(12:10) Jeff Santoro and Jamie Louko engage in "bull vs. bear" debate over cloud infrastructure company DigitalOcean.

Stocks mentioned: CRM, CMG, TEAM, KR, ACI, DOCN, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL

Holiday Music: Silent Night by Ska-J, Hey Skinny Santa by JD McPherson

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Jeff Santoro, Jamie Louko
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 30 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

FTX Collapse: Lessons for Investors

The Dow closes out a strong (relative to other indices) month, and we take a closer look at the collapse of FTX.

(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is "the dumbest index"
- Where investors can find ballast for their portfolios

(15:12) What actually happened with the collapse of FTX? Dylan Lewis and Ricky Mulvey take a closer look at that, as well as some key takeaways for investors.

Stocks mentioned: SHOP, AAPL, KO, MSFT, COIN, HOOD, MSTR

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Dylan Lewis
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Tue, 29 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Commodities...Seriously?

With more retail data rolling in, it might also be time to start paying attention to commodities.

(0:21) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Cyber Monday's results mirroring Black Friday's
- How the headlines around strong holiday retail may be masking weakness underneath
- Why stock investors may have to start paying attention to the price of copper

(9:50) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp share some gift ideas the people on your list will actually enjoy.

Stocks mentioned: ADBE

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 28 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

China Protests Hit U.S. Stocks, NFL Viewing Hits New Record

Apple's manufacturing challenges are just one of the story lines coming out of the recent protests in China.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Black Friday's new record of $9 billion spent
- How other retailers are competing with Amazon
- NFL viewing on Thanksgiving Day setting new records

(9:33) Bill Mann discusses:
- Rising unemployment among China's young adults
- How municipalities are "drowning in debt"
- The challenges of sourcing ingredients and manufacturing in China for U.S. companies like Apple and Procter & Gamble

Stocks mentioned: WMT, TGT, KSS, AMZN, ETSY, W, AAPL, SBUX, MCD, PG, YUMC

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Bill Mann,
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 27 Nov 2022 16:00:00 +0000

What Really Drives Stocks Higher?

Shoppers may need to switch from steak to bologna, but they still need to eat. Thats just one reason for investors to watch consumer staples if youre concerned about a recession.

Richard Bernstein is the CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. Before that he was the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch. Motley Fool Senior Analyst John Rotonti caught up with Bernstein to discuss:

- How growth stories can change through time.
- Sectors showing the power of compounding dividends.
- If a Fed Put still exists.

Members of any Motley Fool service can watch the full interview here: https://www.fool.com/premium/live/video/4056/coverage/2022/11/16/interview-richard-bernstein-ceo-cio-richard-bernst/

Host: John Rotonti
Guest: Richard Bernstein
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Heather Horton, Dan Boyd


Sat, 26 Nov 2022 17:05:00 +0000

Hidden Moats

Some moats are obvious, like a fortress balance sheet or Live Nations ownership of the live music. Others are made on mountains that nobody else wants. If you look hard enough, you can find companies with unusual competitive advantages.

Motley Fool Canadas Jim Gillies and Iain Butler join Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- What it means for a company to have a moat
- Key metrics that can show whether a company has a competitive advantage
- Moats in utility poles, engineering software, and gentlemens clubs

Companies mentioned: ADSK, LYV, POOL, RICK, MO, STLJF

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Jim Gillies, Iain Butler
Engineer: Rick Engdahl


Fri, 25 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

4 Stocks We're Thankful For

Cue the sound effect, it's time for our Thanksgiving Special!

(0:21) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss:
- Humble Pie (aka, stocks we were wrong about)
- Stocks we're thankful for
- Turkey stocks to avoid
- Financial topics we really hope don't come up this holiday season

(19:11) We revisit our conversation Scott Galloway, author of the bestselling book Adrift: America in 100 Charts and discuss a potential rebranding for nuclear energy, and which CEO has created the most shareholder value.

(37:20) Jason and Ron share two stocks on their radar: AMETEK and Taiwan Semiconductor.

Stocks discussed: APPH, WD, SBUX, DIS, HD, COST, NKE, BRK.B, TSLA, BBBY, AME, TSM

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Ron Gross, Scott Galloway
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 24 Nov 2022 09:00:00 +0000

Apropos of Nothing: Best Side Dishes, Movie Sequels, and Memorable Wedding Receptions

Today were taking a break from investing and finance. If youre looking to kill some time, have a listen to this motley array of nonsense!

(1:45) Chris Hill, Bill Barker, and Bill Mann discuss:
- What should be on the Mount Rushmore of Thanksgiving Side Dishes
- Where we would go if we were in the Witness Protection program
- Pro sports mascots to represent Team USA at the World Cup
- Movie sequels and characters wed like to see more of
- A wedding reception that went viral

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Barker, Bill Mann
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Wed, 23 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

$5 Billion Feels Like Overkill

Nordstrom is facing a problem with its customers, while Autodesk faces a problem it created. (0:21) Asit Sharma and Tim Beyers discuss:
- Questions about Autodesks capital allocation strategy.
- Nordstrom's plans for a tough retail environment.
- Favorite Thanksgiving traditions!

(12:44) Tim White joins Tim Beyers for an audio version of This Week in Tech. They discuss the fundamentals of software platforms, and how they could change over the next five years.
Stocks mentioned: ADSK, JWN, CRM, TWLO, MDB, AMZN

Host: Asit Sharma
Guests: Tim Beyers, Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Tue, 22 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Is Zoom Video an Acquisition Target?

Profitable, and worth more than $20 billion, Zoom Video may also be an acquisition target.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Bob Iger's second day back as CEO
- Best Buy, and CEO Corie Barry, defying expectations (again)
- Zoom Video shares falling close to a 2-year low
- How Zoom could fit well into Oracle's business

(12:25) Robert Brokamp talks with Megan McCoy, professor at Kansas State University, about relationships and money.

Stocks mentioned: DIS, BBY, AMZN, ZM, MSFT, ORCL

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Robert Brokamp, Megan McCoy
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 21 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Bob Iger 2: Return of the CEO!

Late Sunday night the board of directors at The Walt Disney Company fired CEO Bob Chapek and re-hired Bob Iger.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- The board's sudden reversal on Chapek
- Expected changes in Disney's executive ranks
- Iger's strengths in building relationships
- Iger's track record in succession planning

(13:11) Dylan Lewis and Kirsten Guerra engage in a bull vs. bear debate over Pinterest.

Stocks mentioned: DIS, PEP, PINS, META

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Dylan Lewis, Kirsten Guerra
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 20 Nov 2022 16:00:00 +0000

Mark Cuban on Drugs, Investing, and Advice for Jeff Bezos

The big three healthcare companies arent paying much attention to Mark Cubans new health care venture, Cost Plus Drugs. But their margins could mean a huge opportunity for the new start-up. Chris Hill caught up with Cuban to discuss:

- Why hes able to sell a leukemia drug for thousands of dollars less than competitors
- Stocks he bought during the pandemic
- Advice for potential NFL owner Jeff Bezos

To check out Mark's new business go to www.CostPlusDrugs.com

Companies mentioned: WBA, CVS, NFLX, LYV, LVS, AMZN

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Mark Cuban
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan, Tim Sparks


Sat, 19 Nov 2022 17:01:00 +0000

2022: New Learnings for Investors

Live from the Hawk & Griffin Pub in Vienna, Virginia...it's Motley Fool Money!

Chris Hill talks with Bill Mann, Emily Flippen, and David Gardner about:
- 2022 through the lens of a small business
- The importance of evaluating the management team of a small cap company
- How fear can be contagious for investors
- Keeping an eye on inflation as we head into 2023
- Optimism around the UNC men's basketball team

Check out the Rule Breaker Investing podcast with David Gardner!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rule-breaker-investing/id1017325738

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Bill Mann, Emily Flippen, David Gardner
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Fri, 18 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Big Retail, Holiday Preview, and Chewy CEO Sumit Singh

If a huge week of retail earnings told us anything, it's that not everyone is ready for the holidays.

(0:30) Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss:
- Walmart beating expectations and raising guidance
- Home Depot and Lowe's delivering the goods (without a boost in share prices)
- Target's self-inflicted problems continuing
- Former Domino's CEO Patrick Doyle taking his talents to Restaurant Brands International
- The latest from Williams-Sonoma, Berkshire Hathaway, and Taiwan Semiconductor

(19:15) Emily talks with Sumit Singh, CEO of Chewy, about the pet products industry, when it's ok to lose money on customer acquisition, and why his company is expanding into pet healthcare.

(32:20) Emily and Jason discuss:
- Sam's Club's new pricing strategy
- Two stocks on their radar: Chart Industries and Zoom Video

Stocks mentioned: WMT, HD, LOW, TGT, WSM, NVDA, BRK.A, BRK.B, TSM QSR, DPZ, CHWY, ROVR, GTLS, ZM

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Emily Flippen, Sumit Singh
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 16 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Family Ties & the Buffett Premium

Fictional character Alex P. Keaton and real-life CEO Warren Buffett have at least one thing in common.

(0:21) Ron Gross discusses:
- Getting inspiration from a sitcom character
- Buying his 1st stock from research in an investing newsletter
- His enduring admiration for Costco
- The undefinable-but-real value of the Buffett Premium when examining Berkshire-Hathaways business

Stocks mentioned: DIS, NFLX, COST, BRK-B

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Ron Gross
Engineer: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks


Tue, 15 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

"A combination of fraud and delusion"

One reason we like Charlie Munger is he rarely, if ever, minces words. (0:21) Bill Mann discusses: - The latest PPI data boosting the market - Walmart's inventory levels (and 3rd-quarter results) catching Wall Street's attention - Charlie Munger sounding off on crypto (13:37) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp dip into the Fool Mailbag to answer questions about Roth IRAs, how ETFs work, and more! Companies discussed: WMT, GE, UAA Host: Chris Hill Guests: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 14 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Twitter's Gift To Competitors

Social media companies selling advertising have been handed an unexpected gift (if they're able to take it).

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Disney's historic win at the box office this weekend being overshadowed by the specter of layoffs
- CEO Bob Chapek's metric for success in 2024
- Eli Lilly falling victim to a prank on Twitter and pulling its ad business in response
- How Snap, Facebook, and Instagram need to take advantage of their sudden opportunity

(11:35) Jason and Matt Frankel take a closer look at the returns that safe investments are offering.

Companies discussed: DIS, AMZN, LLY, META, SNAP

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd


Sun, 13 Nov 2022 16:00:00 +0000

Leadership Strategies & Using Sports to Teach Business

More senior-level women are leaving the workforce than ever before, and just 2% of venture capital funding goes to female-led start-ups. That said, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the future of female leadership and entrepreneurship. Julia Boorstin is CNBCs Senior Media & Tech Correspondent and the author of When Women Lead: What They Achieve, Why They Succeed, and How We Can Learn from Them.
Deidre Woollard caught up with Boorstin to discuss:
- Closing the funding gap for female-led companies
- Shifting power dynamics in healthcare
- What sports can teach kids about business
- Why female leadership strategies are valuable for any business

Companies mentioned: RENT, REAL, SFIX

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Julia Boorstin
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sat, 12 Nov 2022 17:00:00 +0000

Retail, Inventory, and Deals!

Shipping container prices are down 74% from early this year! But many retailers have too much stuff, and shoppers are less eager to check out the clearance racks. Motley Fool Senior Analyst Sanmeet Deo joins Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- Which retailers are tackling inventory challenges well
- An overlooked metric for retailers
- And a compelling opportunity for long-term investors

Companies mentioned: LULU, NKE, TJX, DKS, SPG, TGT, JWN, ROST, M, AMKBY

Article about Macys inventory management: https://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-inventory-glut-management-supply-chain-officer-dennis-mullahy-peak-season/635640/

Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Sanmeet Deo Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Fri, 11 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

We Love Cooling Inflation!

Several factors in the Big Macro pushed stocks higher at week's end.

(0:30) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss:
- How the Consumer Price Index report fueled an historic rise on Thursday
- China's potential for pulling back Covid restrictions
- The role layoffs will play in the coming months
- Disney's parks division being the lone bright spot in an otherwise disappointing 4th-quarter report
- The latest from The Trade Desk, Lyft, and Marqeta

(19:15) Rachel Warren talks with Anjee Solanki, National Retail Director at Colliers, about the top retail trends this holiday season and how consumer spending continues to change.

(32:10) Jason and Ron return to talk about
- Carnival Cruise's intriguing strategy to battle rising food costs
- Two stocks on their radar: Outset Medical and Titan International

Stocks mentioned: META, RDFN, AAPL, DIS, TTD, LYFT, MQ, CCL, AMZN, TJX, DLTR, YUM, WMT, OM, TWI

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser, Rachel Warren, Anjee Solanki
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Thu, 10 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Did We Just Hit The Bottom?

A lower-than-expected CPI number sent stocks soaring. (0:21) Jim Gillies discusses: - Why he believes the reaction on Wall Street could signal a bottom for stocks - Bumble benefitting from today's market rise - How, after a "busted IPO, Bumble appears to be a real business trading at a more reasonable price (15:47) Jeremy Bowman talks with GitLab CFO Brian Robins about how his company is helping other companies develop software, and the trade-off between growth and profitability. Companies discussed: BMBL, MTCH, GTLB Host: Chris Hill Guests: Jim Gillies, Jeremy Bowman, Brian Robins Producer: Ricky Mulvey


Wed, 09 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

CEO's Seat Getting Warmer

The House That Mickey Built appears to be struggling.

(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Disney's 4th-quarter financials disappointing Wall Street
- How the media division is dragging down the parks division
- Redfin shutting down its home-flipping business and laying off 13% of staff

(14:13) Deidre Woollard talks with Bernie Marcus, co-founder of The Home Depot, about the retailer's early days and other observations from his book "Kick Up Some Dust: Lessons on Thinking Big, Giving Back, and Doing It Yourself".

Companies discussed: DIS, NFLX, RDFN, HD

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Tim Beyers, Deidre Woollard, Bernie Marcus
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Tue, 08 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Money & The Average American

Rough years for Lyft and Tripadvisor get even rougher.

(0:21) Ron Gross discusses:
- Lyft disappointing Wall Street in one key metric
- Why Uber's diversification is currently an asset
- Tripadvisor's guidance pulling down the stock

(10:54) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp talk with Jack Caporal and analyze data around average American salaries, savings, and what it means for your financial goals.

Companies discussed: LYFT, UBER, TRIP

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Ron Gross, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp, Jack Caporal
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 07 Nov 2022 21:00:00 +0000

Amazon Music is now FM Radio

Sometimes opportunity comes in the form of competitors making a mistake.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Shares of Meta Platforms rising on reports of "large-scale layoffs" coming this week
- How long it will take to know if Mark Zuckerberg's investments in the metaverse will pay off
- Amazon angering Prime members with an "upgrade" of their music service that changes the user experience for the worse
- Spotify and Apple being gifted an opportunity to find new members for their music services

(13:57) Dylan Lewis and Ricky Mulvey discuss the changing advertising landscape and what the shifts mean for major players like Netflix and Google.

Companies discussed: META, AAPL, SPOT, ROKU, SNAP, NFLX, GOOG, GOOGL

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Dylan Lewis
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 06 Nov 2022 15:00:00 +0000

McKinseys Hidden Influence

One of the most powerful private companies in the world is also one of the most secretive. Michael Forsythe is an investigative reporter for The New York Times and co-author of the new book When McKinsey Comes to Town: The Hidden Influence of the World's Most Powerful Consulting Firm. Forsythe joined Ricky Mulvey to discuss:
- Why Fortune 500 companies pay millions of dollars for the firms advice
- What The Carnegie Way meant for US Steel
- McKinseys relationship with the FDA and what it means for drugmakers

Companies mentioned: X, BIIB, ALL, DIS, WMT, PNGAY

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Michael Forsythe
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sat, 05 Nov 2022 16:00:00 +0000

Buybacks Done Well (and Not-So-Well)

Share buybacks can be a great use of capital, but only for the right price. Dylan Lewis and John Rotonti take a look at two companies that are expert capital allocators and one company thats made some expensive buybacks. They discuss:
- A common misunderstanding investors have about free cash flow
- Why management teams often struggle at doing share repurchases well
- How Apple became a shining example of superior capital allocation
- One less-familiar company thats executed buybacks well

Companies discussed: APPL, META, ORLY

Capital Allocation episode: https://www.fool.com/podcasts/motley-fool-money/2022-05-14-capital-allocation-the-superpower

Host: Dylan Lewis
Guest: John Rotonti
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Fri, 04 Nov 2022 20:38:00 +0000

Surprising Earnings and Portfolio Protection

If the jobs report and Federal Reserve didn't surprise investors, some earnings reports sure did.

(0:30) Andy Cross and Jason Moser discuss:
- How two of the "War On Cash" stocks are doing
- Etsy's cautious optimism heading into the holidays
- North American same-store sales fueling the rise of Starbucks
- The latest from Qualcomm, Atlassian, and Uber

(19:15) Rachel Warren talks with Jon Maier, chief investment officer at Global X, about how to protect your portfolio during an economic downturn and trends he's watching over the next 3, 5, and 10 years.

(30:30: Andy and Jason return to talk about
- Hershey's latest quarter
- Investing strategy for a college student
- Two stocks on their radar: Ulta Beauty and The Trade Desk

Stocks mentioned: SQ, PYPL, ETSY, SBUX, QCOM, TEAM, UBER, HSY, VOO, ULTA, TTD

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jason Moser, Andy Cross, Rachel Warren, Jon Maier
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Thu, 03 Nov 2022 20:00:00 +0000

"The clock is ticking."

Some companies have bright futures, while others simply run out of time.

(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- Roku having more cyclicality than investors might expect
- Whether Peloton can produce lower inventories over the holidays
- Fastly's CEO declaring a commitment to growth

(15:26) Ricky Mulvey continues his conversation with Ben Foldy (Wall Street Journal reporter and host of the podcast Bad Bets) about the current state of Nikola and the rising interest in hydrogen-powered vehicles.

Companies discussed: ROKU, DIS, NFLX, PTON, FSLY, NB, NKLA, BMWYY, TM

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Tim Beyers, Ben Foldy
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 02 Nov 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Airbnb's Record Quarter, Nikola's Early Days

If you think this is a market that will automatically reward a stock because the company posted record revenue, think again.

(0:17) Asit Sharma discusses:
- Why today's announcement from the Federal Reserve won't change the way he invests
- Record revenue highlighting Airbnb's 3rd-quarter results
- Whether today's drop in share price looks like a buying opportunity

(8:31) Ben Foldy, Wall Street Journal reporter and host of the podcast "Bad Bets", shares insights on Nikola founder Trevor Milton, his early career, and the steps that led to one of the hottest stocks of the pandemic.

Companies discussed: ABNB, NKLA, KNX

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Asit Sharma, Ben Foldy
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Tue, 01 Nov 2022 20:00:00 +0000

A "Shock and Awe" Acquisition

A 50% premium is a buyout price most investors would love to see. To acquire Abiomed, Johnson & Johnson was happy to pay it.

(0:17) Bill Mann discusses:
- Why he believes a "shock and awe" price was worth paying for J&J
- How Abiomed strengthens the company's medical device portfolio
- Amazon expanding its ad-free music library for Prime members
- Signs that the retail giant is gunning for Spotify, Disney, and other entertainment companies

(10:33) Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp discuss how shortcuts can make you a smarter saver.

Companies discussed: JNJ, ABMD, AMZN, SPOT, DIS, PARA

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 31 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

4 Stocks We Just Bought

October turned out to be the best month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in a long time.

(0:17) Jason Moser discusses:
- The importance of staying invested through bear markets
- JPMorgan Chase going after the rental payment market
- How much JPM has been investing in technology
- Wells Fargo issuing a "double downgrade" of Hanesbrands

(13:49) Matt Frankel joins Jason to discuss four companies they bought shares of recently.

Companies discussed: JPM, HBI, HD, MKC, STOR, O, PINS

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Tim Sparks, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 30 Oct 2022 15:00:00 +0000

Industrial Companies with Moats

When the party is happening in the penthouse, this is a sector thats in the basement.

Industrial companies arent the sexiest stocks, but thats where investors can find strong moats. You just have to look at micro-verticals like fluid-handling, label making, and aircraft replacement parts. Nick Santhanam is the CEO of the Fernweh Group and a co-author of the new book The Titanium Economy: How Industrial Technology Can Create a Better, Faster, Stronger America. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Santhanam to talk about:
- Why investors often misunderstand the industrial sector
- How companies are using 3D printing and blockchain technology
- Why family-run companies have key advantages for long-term investors
- The biggest challenge for companies in the Titanium Economy

Companies mentioned: GGG, HEI, SEE, BRD, CWST, AZZ

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Nick Santhanam
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sat, 29 Oct 2022 16:00:00 +0000

Who Killed the Candy Bar?

If youre looking for a market-beating stock then you dont have to go much further than the candy aisle. Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma gear up for Halloween and discuss:
- Why candy is a growing market thats also shrinking
- Hersheys M&A strategy and supply chain questions
- Official Halloween candy power rankings

Companies mentioned: HSY, GIS, NKE

Michele Bucks HBR article: https://hbr.org/2022/11/the-ceo-of-hershey-on-turning-a-candy-company-into-a-snacks-empire


Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Asit Sharma
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Fri, 28 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Apple, Amazon, and 2 New All-Time Highs

The biggest tech companies reported this week, but it was Apple that shined the brightest.

(0:30) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- The diversity and strength of Apple's business lines
- Slowing growth in Amazon Web Services
- Meta Platforms hitting its lowest point in 6 years
- Ford Motor's demonstration of fiscal discipline
- The latest from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Visa

(19:15) Jason and Matt continue the earnings analysis and discuss:
- ExxonMobil and McDonald's hitting new highs
- Chipotle's plans for growth
- Surprisingly strong weeks for Teladoc Health and Intel
- Overrated and underrated Halloween candy
- Two stocks on their radar: SiTime Corp. and Lennox International

Got a question about investing?
Email podcasts@fool.com

Stocks mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, META, GOOG, GOOGL, V, MSFT, F, XOM, TDOC, INTC, CMG, MCD, LII, SITM, TSM

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 27 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Meta Misses, Shopify Stabilizes

On a day when Shopify and Comcast gave shareholders reasons for hope, Meta Platforms slid to its lowest level since 2016.

(0:21) Andy Cross discusses:
- Meta's worrisome R&D spending metric
- Low expectations helping to fuel Shopify's rise
- Comcast beating tough quarterly comps, thanks in part to the Minions

(13:41) Ricky Mulvey talks with Scott Ford, CEO of WestRock, a "brand behind the brands" coffee business serving up 20 million cups a day.

Companies discussed: META, SHOP, CMCSA, WEST

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Andy Cross, Scott Ford
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 26 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Alphabet, Visa, Roku

Google's parent company disappointed Wall Street, but share buybacks continue.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Alphabet being a strong business, despite recent downturns
- Spinning off YouTube being an idea that doesn't make sense
- Visa wrapping up the fiscal year in strong fashion
- CEO Al Kelly being among those who do not expect a recession in 2023

(10:56) Shares of Roku have fallen more than 75% year to date. Ryan Henderson and Jose Najarro engage in a bull vs. bear debate over the digital media player company.

Companies discussed: GOOG, GOOGL, V, MA, ROKU, NFLX

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Ryan Henderson, Jose Najarro
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Tue, 25 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Coke's Pop, Weber's Buyout, Stock Market Superstitions

Big Red is still trailing Pepsi but, just like its competitor, it's got pricing power.

(0:21) Jason Moser discusses:
- Coca-Cola's strength in the face of currency headwinds
- PayPal's new partnership with Amazon
- Weber's largest shareholder grilling up a buyout offer
- A new metric for retail businesses: DTRG

(13:17) Just in time for Halloween, Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp break down stock market superstitions.

Companies discussed: KO, PEP, PYPL, AMZN, SHOP, LULU, WEBR, COOK

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Jason Moser, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 24 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Big Tech Earnings Preview

Earnings season kicks into full swing with Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft reporting this week.

(:21) Dylan Lewis and Tim Beyers discuss:
- Margins, pricing power, and other metrics to watch from big tech companies.
- More details about Twitter's acquisition.
- Why Chinese tech stocks are dropping as Xi Jingping begins his third term.

The battle of research papers is on! (16:58) Tim White joins Tim Beyers to discuss the simple reason why tech giants are very interested in generating images from text prompts.

Companies mentioned: MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, META, TWTR, NFLX, AAPL
Host: Dylan Lewis
Guests: Tim Beyers, Tim White
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Sun, 23 Oct 2022 15:00:00 +0000

Crazy Eddie and the Art of Stock Fraud

Spotting a stock fraud is extremely difficult, but finding some smoke is significantly easier.

Founded by Eddie Antar, Crazy Eddie was a chain of consumer electronic stores in the Northeast. After going public in the 1980s, the stock became nearly a ten-bagger before investigators found it to be a fraud. Investors may not have suspected that the retailer boosted profit margins by manipulating a cash skim, but there were some other signs that the soaring stock price didnt tell the whole story.

Ricky Mulvey talked with Gary Weiss, author of Retail Gangster: The Insane, Real-Life Story of Crazy Eddie about:
- Why investors bought into Eddie Antars hype
- How criminals save money on sales tax
- The eventual downfall of Crazy Eddie

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Gary Weiss
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Sat, 22 Oct 2022 16:00:00 +0000

What Currency Headwinds Mean for Investors

Expect to hear currency headwinds a lot this earnings season. But a strong U.S. dollar isnt all bad and can make international companies cheaper. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Bill Mann to look at four economies around the world, including:
- Englands pension and interest rate problems
- The challenges of investing in China
- A massive raw material exporter with a currency that outperformed the US dollar

(NOTE: This episode was recorded before Liz Truss resigned as Britain's Prime Minister

Companies mentioned: CNSWF, NXGPY

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Bill Mann
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd


Fri, 21 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Stocks (and Investing Books) We're Bullish On

Snap fell 30% and took other social media and advertising stocks down with it.

(0:30) Emily Flippen and Ron Gross discuss:
- Pinterest, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet getting dragged down by Snap's bad news
- American Express shares falling despite increased full-year guidance
- Boston Beer's strong 3rd-quarter report
- The latest from Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla, and Tractor Supply

(19:15) Emily and Ron dip into the Fool Mailbag and discuss:
- Medical device pure-plays
- Investing books they recommend
- Surprising economics of pumpkin spice
- The latest from McDonald's and Keurig Dr. Pepper
- Stocks they're more bullish on
- Two stocks on their radar: ASML Holding and Blackstone

Got a question about investing?
Email podcasts@fool.com

Stocks mentioned: SNAP, PINS, META, GOOG, GOOGL, CAT, DE, AXP, NFLX, MSFT, TSLA, TSCO, SAM, MCD, DNUT, SYK, MDT, ZBH, JNJ, RMD, SG, FNCL, JPM, SBUX, PEP, KO, KDP, BX, ASML

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 20 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Tesla's Optimism Springs Eternal

Despite mixed 3rd-quarter results Elon Musk is ever-optimistic about Tesla's future.

(0:21) Bill Mann discusses:
- Economic takeaways from England's sudden need for a new Prime Minister
- Questions about Tesla's accounting
- Why he believes that, despite falling in 2022, Tesla's stock is still pretty expensive.


(10:11) Buck Hartzell talks with Boston Omaha co-CEOs Adam Peterson and Alex Rozek about the nuts and bolts of their business, and how they're handling short-term pain. If you're a member of any Motley Fool service you can access the full Boston Omaha interview here: https://www.fool.com/premium/live/video/4056/coverage/2022/10/19/interview-alex-rozek-adam-peterson-boston-omaha/

Companies discussed: TSLA, BOC

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Bill Mann, Buck Hartzell, Adam Peterson, Alex Rozek
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Wed, 19 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Netflix Rising, WWE Preparing

Netflix surprises Wall Street and throws down the gauntlet at streaming competitors.

(0:21) Tim Beyers discusses:
- 3rd-quarter profits, revenue, and subscriber growth coming in higher than expected
- Optimism around Netflix's new ad platform
- Why he believes the stock is fairly valued (with room to run)

(11:00) Nick Sciple and Jim Gillies discuss the business of World Wrestling Entertainment and how the company may be preparing itself to be acquired.

Companies discussed: NFLX, DIS, AAPL, WWE, CMCSA

Host: Chris Hill
Guest: Tim Beyers, Nick Sciple, Jim Gillies
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd


Tue, 18 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Activist Investors Shake the Tree

If you'd like to see tech stocks turn around, some activist investors feel the same way. They just have some more fire power.


(0:21) Deidre Woollard and Asit Sharma discuss:
- Starboard Value's recent stakes in Splunk and Salesforce.
- Dan Loeb's push for a spinoff at Colgate-Palmolive.
- Layoffs at Microsoft.


Plus, Robert Brokamp and Matt Frankel (14:06) discuss how your home fits into a financial plan.
Companies discussed: CRM, MSFT, CL, SPLK, GIS, INTC
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Asit Sharma, Robert Brokamp, Matt Frankel
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Mon, 17 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

The War on Checks

Home buyers aren't welcoming higher interest rates, but they are mostly good news for banks. (0:21) Deidre Woollard and Jason Moser discuss:
- Bank of America's strong quarter.
- BNY Mellon's move to hold crypto for its clients.
- Why banks are pumping up their loan loss reserves.


Advertising tech stocks have been hurt, but actual spend is holding up. (10:51) Ricky Mulvey and Asit Sharma look at the ad landscape, and one smaller player with a strong balance sheet.
Companies mentioned: BAC, JPM, PYPL, SQ, V, MA, MQ, BILL, BK, TTD, MGNI, PUBM
Host: Deidre Woollard
Guests: Jason Moser, Asit Sharma
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Sun, 16 Oct 2022 15:00:00 +0000

Opportunities in Sustainable Investing

More than 90% of S&P 500 companies publish sustainability reports. But whats real and whats just greenwashing? Bruce Usher is a professor at Columbia Business School and the author of Investing in the Era of Climate Change. Maria Gallagher and Alyce Lomax talked with Usher about:
- Opportunities in sustainable investing
- Renewable energy technology.
- How electric vehicles can help solve green energys intermittency problem

Stocks mentioned: F, TSLA

Additional resource: https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/esg-investing/climate-change-stocks/

Hosts: Maria Gallagher, Alyce Lomax
Guest: Bruce Usher
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Brandon Gentry


Sat, 15 Oct 2022 16:00:00 +0000

Meet the Dividend Knights

You've heard of the Dividend Aristocrats and the Dividend Kings, but wed like to introduce you to the Dividend Knights: dividend-paying stocks that have also beaten the market.

Ricky Mulvey caught up with Matt Argersinger and Anthony Schiavone to discuss:
- Surprising companies (e.g., Dillard's) that have beaten the market over a ten-year period
- Listener questions about dividend stocks
- One interesting income opportunity

Companies discussed: UNP, HD, DDS, PRI, MTN, YARIY, GOOGL, GOOG, DIS, POOL

Find the full list of Dividend Knights here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1-OPCz9pXOcgFqmbMR3wxREg4O7ws_qWW8RWqKPYn1D4/edit#gid=0

Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guests: Matt Argersinger, Anthony Schiavone
Engineer: Dan Boyd


Fri, 14 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Big Merger, Big Banks, Lessons from the NYSE Floor

Earnings season started with head-scratching volatility on Thursday and a surprising merger announcement on Friday. (0:21) Jason Moser and Ron Gross discuss: - Highlights from the Big Banks' latest earnings reports - Kroger's $24 billion plan to acquire rival grocery chain Albertson's - New details on Netflix's ad-supported tier starting in November - The latest from UnitedHealth Group, Walgreen's, and Domino's Pizza (19:15) For the past 25 years CNBC's Bob Pisani has been reporting live from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. In his new book, "Shut Up and Keep Talking: Lessons on Life and Investing", he shares insights from investing legends (Vanguard's John Bogle) and memorable encounters with rock legends (Led Zeppelin's Jimmy Page). (37:30) Jason Moser and Ron Gross share two stocks on their radar: Uber and Stanley Black & Decker Stocks mentioned: C, JPM, MS, WFC, UNH, KR, ACI, WMT, TGT, AMZN, WBA, NFLX, DIS, MSFT, DPZ, UBER, SWK Host: Chris Hill Guests: Jason Moser, Ron Gross, Bob Pisani Engineer: Dan Boyd


Thu, 13 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Horror Movie-nomics

Why are there so many horror movies? Because they're so profitable to make.

(0:21) Jim Gillies discusses:
- Volatility (the good kind!) in the market today
- Insider buying being a signal he watches closely
- Why he's most interested in TFS Financial Corp. and Medpace Holdings this earnings season

(12:50) As horror movie fans get ready for this weekend's release of "Halloween Ends", Ricky Mulvey talks with Catie Peiper about the economics of horror movies.

Stocks discussed: TGT, TFSL, MEDP

Host: Chris Hill
Guests: Jim Gillies, Catie Peiper
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl


Wed, 12 Oct 2022 20:00:00 +0000

Defensive Stocks FTW

No one is putting Pepsi on a list of "sexy stocks" but its performance this year has been crushing the market. (0:21) Asit Sharma discusses: - Pepsi's ability to increase prices that customers are still willing to pay - The role of "shrinkflation" in Pepsi's strategy