The Joseph Carlson Show - Archive

0:00 The AI Slowdown Battle4:05 Why Meta Benefits Most6:49 How Meta Wins Either Way12:41 Meta’s New AI Assistant15:41 Zuckerberg’s Track Record20:43 Dario’s Real Incentives29:21 The Problem With “Coordinated Pacing”31:46 Fail of the Week: Hunter Biden’s Meme Coin

Jacob Coxon viral X post is causing an AI hysteria. We look through the timeline in this episode.

00:00 What's Happneing In The Stock Market17:31 Microsoft to Reveal Cloud Growth19:45 S&P Global To Sell Capital IQ21:52 Google Avoids Breakup 23:00 Fail Of The Week: Teleprompter Operator

Why the biggest bear, Ed Zitron, belives AI is a con.

00:00 Meta Strategic Victory In Lawsuit18:30 Microsoft Is Hiding From Investors21:23 Netflix May Offer Peacock Through It's Service26:15 Win Of The Week: SharkNinja's Innovation

00:00 Buy Prices For Every Stock26:18 Uber Hit Piece38:50 Fail Of The Week: Gene Munster

00:00 How To Have An Edge In Investing15:02 Sharing My Investment Journey19:15 Top Pick 1: Meta23:50 Top Pick 2: Uber25:50 Top Pick 3: S&P Global27:30 Duolingo DAU Update29:20 Fail Of The Week: Amazon Drone Delivery30:45 New Carlson Family Member

00:00 Super Investor Portfolio Update23:00 Meta Lawsuit Gets Worse

In this episode we review Bill Ackmans new buys.

00:00 Overview01:24 IMAX08:33 Reddit11:39 MELI13:20 Adobe16:28 Nike17:50 Rollins19:40 Copart23:04 Nebius24:58 Cava26:35 Fail Of The Week: Elisson vs California

00:00 Introduction01:00 A History Of Picking Stocks06:30 Uber11:50 Meta18:02 Netflix20:15 Semianalysis Gemini Has Lost23:48 Fail Of The Week: Keith Rabois

00:00 Intro02:30 AWS Has Changed The Market11:26 FICO Earnings14:24 Uber & DoorDash19:00 Duolingo22:00 Texas Roadhouse23:00 Tom Lee 2027 Prediction

Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have followed a pattern of their CAPEX having initial skepticism eventually followed by acceptance. This will happen with Meta as well. In each case there were 'reasons' that the stock deserved to be down. With Google it was that ChatGPT would disrupt search, Microsoft it was Claude would disrupt the software bundle and the backlog was too concentrated, Amazon it was large CAPEX spend with no flagship model. With Meta it's that they have no public cloud business. Like all the others, investors will eventually be convinced

00:00 Introduction03:01 PayPal Stock08:33 S&P Global Earnings12:36 Visa and Mastercard17:16 FICO and Robinhood19:38 Meta and Microsoft Earnings27:05 The Three Layers of AI37:05 ASML and China’s Chip Machines39:11 AI, Hiring, and the Future of Jobs41:52 Fail Of The Week: Paramount’s Warner Bros. Merger Problem

00:00 Introduction02:00 ASML Earnings Reaction10:00 Netflix Earnings Tomorrow11:50 JP Morgan & The Banks12:20 Buffett Reveals He Bought GoogleFail Of The Week: Kalshi & New York City

00:00 The Growth of Momentum Investing19:00 How Buffett Comapres To Terry Smith29:00 Starbucks Is Building Their Own Software32:00 Fail Of The Week: AI Cheating In School

00:00 Market Dynamics & 9 Stocks28:36 Tom Lee On July Strength31:00 Fail Of The Week: Michael Saylor

00:00 Jeremy Grantham Predictions18:20 Zuckerberg Talks About Meta's Spend33:40 Fail Of The Week: Polen Capital Collapse

00:00 The AI Trade Is Cracking07:36 Netflix At 52 Week Low17:00 Meta Sell-Off Continues23:40 Fail Of The Week: JP Morgan Community Manager

00:00 Introduction02:00 The Market Is Focused on AI13:40 Why Uber & DoorDash25:00 Google's Stock Goes Down Today29:00 Fail Of The Week: Polymarket

Why Meta is my biggest single bet today.

00:00 Intro02:00 Portfolio Update10:00 SpaceX IPO Reaction22:39 Fail Of The Week: Anthropic Self-Inflicted Wounds

00:00 Intro02:00 11 Top Undervalued Stocks To Buy18:26 ASML's Dominance Continues25:00 Social Reckoning Movie Trailer

00:00 Overview02:00 The Market Is Getting More Volatile08:00 Steve Eisman's Bearish Take19:48 Meta Rumored Equity Raise22:00 Fail Of The Week: Sam Bankman-Fried

0:00 Intro02:00 Google's Strategic Reason For Record Dilution26:09 Tom Lee Explains Next 3 Year Bull Run19:00 YouTubers Are Taking Over Hollywood32:33 Fail Of The Week: Andrew Left Guilty Of Stock Market Manipulation

In a market obsessed with artificial intelligence, this episode follows the race to separate the real winners from the temporary hype.0:00 AI winners, losers, and the investing roadmap2:21 Phase 1: The AI scarcity boom5:31 Why today’s AI winners may not stay winners7:00 ASML, Nvidia, and durable supply-chain advantages9:04 The danger of assuming cyclicals are no longer cyclical11:13 Phase 3: Hyperscalers take control16:09 Software stocks: AI disruption or rerating opportunity?20:06 How I’m positioning my portfolio23:13 Ferrari’s EV and the risk to the brand27:29 Fail of the week: Colbert, late-night TV, and YouTube

00:00 SpaceX Incredible IPO15:20 Nvidia's Amazing Earnings Report16:17 Why I'm Selling Intuit21:25 Fail Of The Week: Trevor Noah on Quarterly Reports

00:00 Episode Overview00:50 Chris Hohn Sells Microsoft and Buys Google08:54 Bill Ackman Buys Microsoft and Sells Google13:40 Dev Kantesaria Is Down -20% This Year17:00 Berkshire Sells a LOT of Holdings19:03 Terry Smith's Recent Performance Is Horrible21:40 Pat Dorsey Is Buying Uber23:30 Alta Rock Portfolio Bets Big On Amazon24:15 Brad Gersner Bets Big on AI25:00 Chuck Akre's Fund Will Struggle26:40 Fail Of The Week: Waymo

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 Google As An Example06:11 Amazon11:22 Uber15:20 DoorDash18:03 Shopify20:32 Meta24:58 Broadcom29:03 Mercado Libre31:50 Game Stop Rejection33:57 Fail Of The Week: Texas vs Netflix

00:00 Episode Overview01:20 Why Chris Hohn Is Selling17:48 Chris Hohn Has Been Wrong Before24:57 Texas Roadhouse Bull Case28:23 Fail Of The Week: Prediction Markets

00:00 Episode Overview01:45 The "Culture" Problem07:37 Brad Gerstner On AI Landscape15:22 Dario's vs Jensen21:20 Ackman On Zuckerberg31:05 Fail Of The Week: NY Mayor vs Ken Griffin

00:00 Episode Overview06:45 Meta10:10 Visa & Mastercard11:57 Microsoft13:52 Buffett on The Market Today18:59 Fail Of The Week: Ryan Cohen

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 Google Earnings19:58 Meta Earnings30:59 Amazon Earnings40:34 Fail Of The Week: Blue vs Red

00:00:00 - Intro & Qualtrim Overview00:03:17 - Tuesday Earnings (S&P Global, Spotify, Booking, & Robinhood)00:10:43 - The Big Tech "AI Layoff" Myth00:18:06 - Google & Microsoft Expectations00:23:50 - Amazon & Meta Growth Strategies00:27:36 - Apple's Financial Engineering00:28:47 - Elon vs. OpenAI & The Polymarket Fail

Tom Lee shares his view on why the market is set up for the best 12 to 18 months

00:00 Episode Overview03:53 Analysts Warn About The Market09:00 Meta Bear Case15:12 Salesforce & Adobe21:00 Netflix Earnings Reaction25:00 Fail Of The Week: The change-name AI Frenzy

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 The Market Recovery14:00 Netflix Earnings15:30 Amazon Buys Satellite Company16:28 Analysts Turn Bullish On Meta27:00 Jensen Says Amazon Is Lying37:00 Fail Of The Week: Allbirds Goes to AI39:45 New Qualtrim Feature

00:00 Episode Overview03:00 Portfolio Update10:11 Amazon Updated Analysis32:20 Meta Updated Analysis45:40 Fail Of The Week

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 Stocks Are Going Crazy07:36 Sam Altman Criticisms13:08 Fail Of The Week: Follow-up 16:20 Responding To Comments

00:00 Episode Overview01:28 Qualtrim Plug02:20 Nike09:10 Booking Holdings12:48 Robinhood & American Express15:20 Intuit18:20 Jamie Dimon & Tom Lee22:25 Open AI and Anthropic IPO26:58 Fail Of The Week: Italy Court

00:00 Stocks Surge11:40 Buffett On The Market13:00 Fail Of The Week: Child Affordability Study21:57 Responding To Comments

00:00 Overview01:40 The Best Time To Buy Is now22:25 The Strategic Mistake Of Sora26:25 Fail Of The Week: Elizabeth Warren Complains About Netflix30:58 Responding To comments

00:00 Overview02:00 The Fall of FICO31:09 Meta $9 Trillion Market Cap Goal32:50 Fail Of The Week: Robots

00:00 Overview02:41 End Of The Metaverse18:37 Mark Zuckerberg Creating AI CEO21:47 Uber Invests In Rivian23:47 Project Hail Mary Success27:20 Costco CEO Eats Hot Dog29:28 Fail Of The Week: Marc Andreessen No Introspection

00:00 Overview02:00 Apple's Superior AI Strategy25:30 Intuit Is Doubling Buybacks27:00 Adobe Earnings32:05 Netflix Paid $600 For AI Company35:00 Fail Of The Week: SEC Quarterly Report

In this episode we review why I purchased, and continue to buy, Meta.

00:00 6 Compounding Machines On A Dip27:45 Tom Lee Predictions30:00 Fail Of The Week: Prediction Of AI Destruction

00:00 Overview02:00 Oil Goes Above $10025:30 Anthropic Sues Trump Administration30:20 Netflix Buys Ben Affleck AI Company34:43 Fail Of The Week: More CEO's Eat Their "product"

We value each stock based on historical valuation and future DCF.

00:00 Overview02:00 Steve Eisman & Tom Lee On War06:45 Netflix Walks Away From Warner Deal20:48 Duolingo Falls 20% After Earnings32:00 Fail Of The Week: McDonalds CEO

00:00 Overview02:00 Agents Remove Friction10:31 DooDash Disruptted Rebuttal24:17 Mastercard Disrupted Rebuttal32:40 The Domino Effect Rebuttal42:45 Netflix Warner Bros Update44:45 Meta & AMD Chip Deal46:36 Fail Of The Week: Robot Vacuum Hacking

00:00 Overview02:00 Super Investor Buys17:17 Moody's Earnings22:40 DoorDash Earnings23:55 Fail Of The Week: Sam & Dario

00:00 Investors Are Scared14:00 3 Monopolies To Buy17:14 Chris Hohn 13f Holding Update19:18 Netflix And Warner Bros21:20 Responding To Jeremy On Duolingo31:52 Fail Of The Week: Chamath Palihapitiya

00:00 Introduction02:00 Things Are Changing Fast19:50 Bill Ackman Buys Meta

00:00 Overview02:00 Burry's Argument11:30 Big Tech Valuation18:50 Jensen Asked About CAPEX31:34 Fail Of The Week: Anthropic Super Bowl Ad

00:00 Overview01:13 Stock Market Panic 13:10 Duration And Business Model19:59 Uber Earnings21:40 Fail Of The Week: Netflix at Congress

00:00 Overview02:00 Meta Analysis12:50 Meta Capex Spend Explained22:00 Tom Lee Bitcoin Prediction23:15 Waymo Accident27:47 Nvidia Walks Back OpenAI Deal

00:00 Overview02:00 Microsoft13:00 Meta18:24 ASML20:08 Mastercard22:00 Tesla

Join Qualtrim, the Stock Analysis platform I built and use, and join over 12,000 other paying members: https://www.qualtrim.com/00:00 Overview01:46 Google06:18 Mastercard09:40 Amazon11:20 S&P Global and Moody's12:45 ASML15:20 Netflix20:12 Microsoft21:06 Costco24:44 Intuit26:33 Salesforce28:10 Texas Roadhouse30:40 Equifax32:30 Duolingo

00:00 Overview01:58 The Markets Are Sinking14:53 Buying $5,000 More Of Duolingo18:17 Netflix Earnings21:50 Andy Jassy On Job Loss26:20 Chris Hohn Breaks Hedge Fund Record30:25 Fail Of The Week: Beast Games Contestant

00:00 Introduction03:00 Netflix & Warner Bros11:40 JP Morgan Is No Longer A Bank16:00 Amazon Advances With Robotics18:52 Visa & Mastercard Interest Rate Cap23:37 Gemini's Unfair Advantage25:47 Fail Of The Week: Matthew Mcconaughey Trademarks Himself

00:00 Fed vs President Trump15:00 Duolingo CFO Steps Down23:40 Apple and Google Partnership25:13 Paramount Sues Warner Bros

00:00 Preview02:00 The Best Stock17:08 Warner Bros Rejects Paramount, Again19:00 Brad Gerstner on 202622:55 Palmer Luckey's Great Take24:00 Trump Blocking Wall Street from Buying Homes28:00 Fail Of The Week: AI "Pranks"

We discuss 10 of the most incredible companies on planet earth, and why they're worth considering as an investment.

00:00 Overview02:00 Best & Worst Stocks Of 202529:50 2026 Predictions37:20 Fail Of The Week: The Nike Exploiter

00:00 Introduction02:00 Blueprint to $1 million Portfolio19:20 Waymo Causes Roadblock23:32 Fail Of The Week: losing Everything

00:00 Overview02:46 Paramount Was Denied19:45 Tom Lee Is Bearish21:17 Mark Mahaney on Google In 202624:11 Netflix Is Now In Podcasts25:38 Fail Of The Week: Director Tricks Netflix

00:00 Overview03:00 2025 picks05:00 Amazon09:00 Bristol Myers Squibb11:00 Comcast14:00 Exxon Mobile15:00 Fairfax Financial16:50 Flutter Entertainment18:33 Madison Square Garden21:04 Visa22:57 SL Green Realty24:34 Disney26:21 Disney Deal with OpenAI32:00 Google Goes After Zillow35:00 Fail Of The Week: Elizabeth Warren

00:00 Overview02:00 Netflix Is Dead Money04:00 Outline Of My Buy Strategy08:00 Why Netflix Wins In Every Case24:30 Waymo Reaches 450,000 Rides Per Week29:00 Investors Are Turning Away From AI Stocks

00:00 Overview03:00 Mastercard08:00 Meta10:24 Adobe14:20 Amazon15:02 Duolingo17:03 Nvidia18:25 Salesforce19:25 Google21:05 Microsoft21:25 Uber22:50 Netflix26:00 Tesla28:10 Palantir29:50 ASML31:30 Paramount Hostile Bid40:50 Fail Of The Week: Waymo vs Kitkat

What does this mean? We review it in this episode.

00:00 Introduction03:00 OpenAI Sam Altman Declares Code Red12:45 Google Servers In Space15:03 Waymo Is Changing Health Care23:32 Netflix Buying Warner Media26:25 Fail Of The Week: Waymo

00:00 Introduction03:16 My Biggest Buy (Mastercard)15:30 Google VS Nvidia25:00 Stranger Things Premiere26:52 Fail Of The Week: Gene Munster Google Take

00:00 Introduction02:00 Ray Dalio & Michael Burry Bubble Talk18:29 Google Stock Goes Up 6%23:28 I Bought More Mastercard & Sold Booking Holdings18:17 My Favorite Things

00:00 Introduction02:50 Google Hits $30008:00 Why Mastercard Is Misunderstood22:23 Nvidia Earnings26:50 Win Of The Week

Today's episode we look at Warren Buffett's buy into Google and review the portfolio changes of top Super Investors.

00:00 Amazon Catalysts13:00 5 Stocks Worth Considering30:03 Tom Lee & Dan Ives On Market Sell Off33:38 Netflix Party games35:12 Fail Of The Week: Michael Saylor

00:00 Michael Burry Short Position26:59 Mark Mahaney Top 3 Stock Picks35:43 Waymo Expands To Freeway37:30 Fail Of The Week - Admitting Your Fraud

00:00 Overview03:00 Don't Miss The Opportunity18:20 Visa & Mastercard Settle22:50 $2,000 Dividend Stimulus25:19 Gene Munster Apple Call28:00 Dan Ives Meta Table Pounder29:20 Mark Mahaney on Duolingo & Uber32:50 Fail Of The Week - Employees Harass HR

00:00 Overview04:00 Duolingo Reaction36:00 Google TPU Advancement38:00 Fail Of The Week Chipotle

00:00 Introduction03:04 Meta's Issue with Capex08:35 Salesforce & Adobe Fundamentals vs Sentiment12:00 S&P Global & Equifax Catalysts Ahead15:36 Netflix's Underappreciated Financial Strength22:29 Uber CEO On It's Future26:00 Amazon Sues Perplexity

00:00 Overview02:00 Palantir06:00 Shopify08:30 Uber13:50 Spotify15:57 AMD17:34 FICO18:15 Duolingo26:40 Texas Roadhouse28:55 Tom Lee Case For The Bull Market32:54 Amazon OpenAI Deal34:07 Fail Of The Week: Sam Altman

Amazon and Google both reported earnings, both stocks are soaring. We discuss the recent earnings reports.

Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple, all report earnings this week. We break down what to expect and why I'm betting so big on Google.

00:00 Overview01:44 Netflix Earnings08:00 Tesla Earnings13:45 Amazon Replacing 600,000 Jobs22:40 Fail Of The Week: NBA Coach Bets His Life

00:00 Overview02:00 OpenAI Releases AI Browser13:10 Salesforce Stock Surge15:00 Equifax Earnings18:45 Warner Bros Sale21:50 Netflix Future23:15 Fail Of The Week: Amazon

00:00 Overview02:00 New Buys Today14:30 Salesforce Dreamforce16:50 Sundar Pichai Interview27:30 Fail Of The Week (Grant Cardon)

00:00 Overview02:00 ASML Earnings14:35 Brad Gerstner on AI Bubble25:30 Agentic Commerce28:00 Waymo Expansion28:50 Salesforce OpenAI Deal

00:00 Introduction02:00 Top 5 AI Winners21:30 Broadcom OpenAI Deal24:30 Tom Lee Remains Nvidia vs Costco23:30 Fail Of The Week

00:00 Overview02:00 AMD Open AI Deal11:40 The 1999 Stock Bubble Is Here15:30 Portfolio Construction

AMD stock price surges, Paul Tudor Jones warns we're in a 1999 bubble, and we discuss how to make a portfolio defensive.

- Expert warns about "irrational" market- ASML goes above $1,000- Elon Musk goes to war with Netflix- Microsoft raises prices by +50% on Game Pass- FICO goes after Equifax- Peter Lynch Interview Reaction

Three Hedge Funds are buying Spotify, Uber and Google. We take a look at their research and react to their thesis.

The market is getting overvalued. We look at five high quality stocks that are still a deal.

00:00 Overview02:00 AI Capex Warning13:22 Costco Earnings Report18:50 Tia Lopez RadioShack Scheme24:00 Duolingo Chess

00:00 Overview02:30 The Amazon Thesis26:30 Jimmy Kimmel Returns33:20 Mark Mahaney Netflix

00:00 Overview02:00 Why ASML Stock Is Surging13:40 Nvidia $100b Investment16:50 H1-B Visa Changes21:40 Meta Live Demo Fail24:02 Fail Of The Week

00:00 Introduction02:05 What I'm Buying and Selling18:20 The Impact Of Rate Cuts21:52 Jimmy Kimmel Suspension36:55 Linkedin Tax-Saving Strategy

00:00 Overview02:50 Option Care Health05:43 Twilio08:35 U-Haul09:39 Elf Beauty11:44 Innodata14:00 Vertiv15:32 Aptiv16:43 FirstCash21:10 XQO22:23 JBS23:50 Interest Rates Lowered25:54 Waymo Expansion and Safety28:30 Comment Section

00:00 The Case For Opendoor18:10 Gemini Number One In App Store20:19 Should We End Quarterly Reports